“To Take and Keep the Lead:” A Naval Fleet Platform Architecture for Enduring Maritime Supremacy By Robert O. Work December 2005 CONTENTS AUTHOR’S NOTE .................................................................................................................. I I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 The Enduring Race............................................................................................... 1 “…To Take and Keep the Lead”........................................................................... 1 Time to Update DoN’s Racing Strategy............................................................... 2 Scope ................................................................................................................... 4 Organization......................................................................................................... 5 II. REVIEWING THE SHIP’S LOG....................................................................................... 9 Past as Prologue .................................................................................................. 9 Identifying Previous Race Legs.................................................................... 11 The Revolutionary War, 1775-1783: Warming Up (Testing the Waters)............ 12 The Navy-Marine Corps Team: a Blissful Courtship..................................... 13 Influences on Change................................................................................... 13 The Continental Era, 1783-1889: Ready, Set, Go (Back in the Pack) ............... 14 The Navy-Marine Corps Team: An Institutional Marriage............................ 17 Influences on Change................................................................................... 17 The Oceanic, or Expeditionary, Era, 1890-1946: Racing to Win (Stalking the Leaders) ....................................................................................... 19 The Navy-Marine Corps Team: Trial Separation .......................................... 27 Influences on Change................................................................................... 28 The Transoceanic, or Garrison Era, 1947-1989: Racing to Win (Fighting off a Late Challenger)......................................................................... 29 The Rise of Guided Weapons Warfare.......................................................... 36 The Rise of an All-Volunteer Joint Force ..................................................... 39 The Fall of the “Dominant Service Model” ................................................... 40 The Navy-Marine Corps Team: Filing For Divorce........................................ 41 Influences on Change................................................................................... 45 A New National Security Era, 1989-?: Making the Turn Onto a New Race Leg.................................................................................................... 48 III. WAITING FOR THE PLOT TO SETTLE .......................................................................... 49 Been There, Done That ...................................................................................... 49 Initial DoN Course Corrections in the Joint Expeditionary Era ........................ 58 Dead in the Water .............................................................................................. 61 New Battle Force Era?....................................................................................... 62 The Navy-Marine Corps Team: Departmental Reconciliation or Irreconcilable Differences? ............................................................................... 63 External Winds of Change.................................................................................. 68 IV. “NOON SHOT” ....................................................................................................... 75 Of Maritime Supremacy and Ship Counts.......................................................... 75 First Sighting: Aggregate Fleet Warship Tonnage ............................................ 79 Second Sighting: Aviation Power-Projection Platforms.................................... 80 Third Sighting: Surface Combatants ................................................................. 84 Fourth Sighting: Submarines ............................................................................. 91 Fifth Sighting: US Fleet Striking Power............................................................. 95 Sixth Sighting: War Planning Exercises ............................................................ 96 Converting Observed Sightings Into a Relative Position in the Global Naval Competition.................................................................................. 98 Time to Reef Sails?.......................................................................................... 100 V. RACING FORECASTS FOR THE JOINT EXPEDITIONARY ERA.......................................... 103 A New Competitive Arena................................................................................ 103 Potential Challenges and Challengers ............................................................ 107 Irregular/Catastrophic Maritime Challenges.............................................. 108 Traditional/Catastrophic Challenges ......................................................... 114 Disruptive/Traditional or Disruptive/Catastrophic Challenges .................. 118 The Future Competitive Domain...................................................................... 122 Expected Future Resources ............................................................................ 123 A Future Battle Force Planning and Sizing Metric .......................................... 126 VI. RACE PREP ......................................................................................................... 129 Exploiting the Lead.......................................................................................... 129 A Strategy of the Second Move ....................................................................... 130 A Strategy of the Second Move for the Joint Expeditionary Era .................... 134 A Naval Platform Architecture Built for Rapid Adaptability ........................... 136 Battle Network Design Imperatives ................................................................ 139 Battle Network Operational Imperatives ........................................................ 141 Get Integrated ............................................................................................ 141 Get Quick.................................................................................................... 143 Get Distributed ........................................................................................... 145 Get Combined ............................................................................................. 147 Get Properly Configured, Industrially......................................................... 149 A New Battle Force Era ................................................................................... 153 Minimizing Key Sources of Friction................................................................. 155 Paralysis by Analysis.................................................................................. 155 The Navy-Marine Corps Split...................................................................... 156 “Over-specing” Battle Network Platforms ................................................. 156 Satisfying all Seven Battle Force Stakeholders ........................................ 156 Building a National Total Force Battle Network........................................ 157 Strategy in Action: Toward an Adaptable Naval Fleet Platform Architecture for the Joint Expeditionary Era .................................................. 158 A Word on “Sea Swap”..................................................................................... 160 Component Fleets............................................................................................ 161 VII. THE STRATEGIC DETERRENT AND DISSUASION FLEET................................................ 163 Strategic Ballistic Missile Submarines ........................................................... 163 Thinking About the Current and Future SSBN Fleet .................................. 164 Homeland Missile Defense ......................................................................... 166 Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarines ............................................................. 168 The US Undersea Order of Battle............................................................... 169 Recapitalizing the SSN Fleet...................................................................... 173 Quantifying US Undersea Superiority ........................................................ 175 Maintaining US Undersea Superiority Over the Long Term....................... 177 The Changing Nature of the Undersea Competition.................................. 180 Future Undersea Superiority and the Strategy of the Second Move......... 181 Recommendations for the Strategic Deterrent/Dissuasion Fleet ................... 185 Associated Annual Shipbuilding Costs ...................................................... 186 Weapons Procurement, Fleet Manning, and Other O&S Considerations ........................................................................