Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty Arjan Wardekker 2011 1 Research presented in this thesis was carried out at the Department of Science, Technology and Society (STS), Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands, and at the Information Services and Methodology Team (IMP), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands. Copyright © 2011, Arjan Wardekker. All rights reserved. Cite as: Wardekker, J.A. (2011). Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty. PhD dissertation. Utrecht University, Utrecht. (for the journal-published chapters (3-6), preferably cite the journal articles) Cover design: Filip de Blois (based on an idea by Arjan Wardekker). Globe image used: “The Blue Marble” (2002 east version) by NASA. Printed by: Proefschriftmaken.nl || Printyourthesis.com. ISBN: 978-90-8891-281-8. 2 Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty Effectbeoordeling en aanpassing aan klimaatverandering onder onzekerheid (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof.dr. G.J. van der Zwaan, ingevolge het besluit van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op woensdag 15 juni 2011 des ochtends te 10.30 uur door Johannes Adrianus Wardekker geboren op 5 September 1981 te Amersfoort 3 Promotor: Prof.dr. W.C. Turkenburg Co-promotoren: Dr. J.P. van der Sluijs Prof.dr. A.C. Petersen Dit proefschrift werd mede mogelijk gemaakt met financiële steun van het Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL) en nationaal onderzoeksprogramma Klimaat voor Ruimte. The research presented in this thesis has been made possible through the financial support of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and national research programme Climate changes Spatial Planning. 4 Contents Chapter 1. Introduction ________________________________________________ 9 1.1. Climate change, impacts, and adaptation _______________________ 10 1.2. Uncertainty ________________________________________________ 13 1.3. Climate change adaptation under uncertainty ___________________ 16 1.4. Focus and scope of this thesis _________________________________ 19 Chapter 2. Uncertainty and health risks of climate change: Results of an expert elicitation for the Netherlands __________________________________________ 23 2.1. Introduction _______________________________________________ 24 2.2. Methods __________________________________________________ 25 2.2.1. Setup _________________________________________________________ 25 2.2.2. Expert selection ________________________________________________ 26 2.2.3. Protocol and analysis ____________________________________________ 26 2.3. Results ____________________________________________________ 27 2.3.1. Temperature ___________________________________________________ 27 2.3.2. Allergies ______________________________________________________ 30 2.3.3. Pests _________________________________________________________ 30 2.3.4. Vector-borne diseases____________________________________________ 31 2.3.5. Food- and waterborne diseases _____________________________________ 31 2.3.6. Air quality ____________________________________________________ 32 2.3.7. Flooding and storms _____________________________________________ 32 2.3.8. UV __________________________________________________________ 33 2.3.9. Relevance of health effects for adaptation ____________________________ 33 2.4. Discussion _________________________________________________ 35 2.4.1. Reflection on findings ___________________________________________ 35 2.4.2. Relevance for other countries. _____________________________________ 36 2.4.3. Policy implications ______________________________________________ 37 2.5. Conclusions________________________________________________ 38 Acknowledgements _____________________________________________ 39 Supplementary Material for Chapter 2 ____________________________ 40 2.Sup.1. Steps in expert elicitation _______________________________________ 40 2.Sup.2. List of participants ____________________________________________ 40 2.Sup.3. Questionnaire ________________________________________________ 41 2.Sup.4. Relevance of health effects for adaptation policy ____________________ 48 2.Sup.5. Uncertainty and options for adaptation ____________________________ 52 5 Chapter 3. Operationalising a resilience approach to adapting an urban delta to uncertain climate changes _____________________________________________ 55 3.1. Introduction _______________________________________________ 56 3.2. Research design ____________________________________________ 58 3.3. Description of the area ______________________________________ 60 3.4. Climate change related problems for the area ___________________ 61 3.4.1. Temperature ___________________________________________________ 61 3.4.2. Sea level rise___________________________________________________ 61 3.4.3. Wind and windstorms ____________________________________________ 62 3.4.4. River discharge _________________________________________________ 63 3.4.5. Precipitation extremes ___________________________________________ 63 3.4.6. Societal and governmental issues ___________________________________ 63 3.4.7. Wildcards _____________________________________________________ 64 3.5. Options for resilience ________________________________________ 65 3.5.1. Homeostasis ___________________________________________________ 65 3.5.2. Omnivory _____________________________________________________ 66 3.5.3. High flux _____________________________________________________ 66 3.5.4. Flatness _______________________________________________________ 67 3.5.5. Buffering _____________________________________________________ 67 3.5.6. Redundancy ___________________________________________________ 68 3.5.7. Other options __________________________________________________ 68 3.6. Discussion _________________________________________________ 69 3.6.1. Reflection on the resilience principles and comparison with the Vancouver study ______________________________________________________________ 69 3.6.2. Reflection on the approach and results _______________________________ 70 3.6.3. Resilience and climate change adaptation under uncertainty ______________ 72 3.6.4. Resilience versus other adaptation approaches_________________________ 73 3.7. Conclusions________________________________________________ 74 Acknowledgements _____________________________________________ 75 Chapter 4. Ethics and public perception of climate change: Exploring the Christian voices in the US public debate __________________________________________ 77 4.1. Introduction _______________________________________________ 78 4.2. Methodology _______________________________________________ 81 4.2.1. Approach _____________________________________________________ 81 4.2.2 Data collection __________________________________________________ 83 4.2.3 Sample ________________________________________________________ 83 4.3. Christian religious discourses in the climate debate_______________ 84 4.3.1. Conservational stewardship _______________________________________ 85 4.3.2. Developmental stewardship _______________________________________ 87 4.3.3. Developmental preservation _______________________________________ 89 6 4.4. Discussion _________________________________________________ 91 4.4.1. Comparing the discourses ________________________________________ 91 4.4.2. Timeline and priority ____________________________________________ 93 4.4.3. Discourse on uncertainty _________________________________________ 93 4.4.4. Religious versus secular voices ____________________________________ 94 4.4.5. Impact on societal debate and political decision making _________________ 95 4.5. Conclusion ________________________________________________ 96 Acknowledgements _____________________________________________ 97 Supplementary Material for Chapter 4 ____________________________ 98 4.Sup.1. Organizations included _________________________________________ 98 4.Sup.2. People included ______________________________________________ 99 Chapter 5. Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments: Views from the Dutch science-policy interface ______________________________________ 101 5.1. Introduction ______________________________________________ 102 5.2. Methodology ______________________________________________ 105 5.3. Perception of uncertainty and uncertainty communication _______ 107 5.4. Demand for uncertainty information __________________________ 110 5.4.1 Interest in uncertainty information: general and specific topics ___________ 110 5.4.2 Sources and types of uncertainty ___________________________________ 112 5.4.3 Implications of uncertainty _______________________________________ 112 5.4.4 Recalculations _________________________________________________ 113 5.5. Presentation of uncertainty information _______________________ 113 5.5.1 Probability terms _______________________________________________ 113 5.5.2 Presenting different sources of uncertainty ___________________________ 115 5.5.3 Qualitative aspects of uncertainty __________________________________ 116 5.5.4 The place of uncertainty information in reports _______________________ 119 5.6. Discussion ________________________________________________ 120 5.6.1 Limitations of the analysis _______________________________________