JAFFEE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY Volume 7, No. 4 March 2005 The Disengagement: Also in this Issue An Ideological Crisis The Election of Abu Mazen Yehuda Ben Meir and the Next Stage in Israeli–Palestinian Relations Mark A. Heller n he idea of the Greater Land of Israel has been central to the ideological, public, and in many cases personal lives of a large number of Israelis for more than thirty years. For them, Israel’s disengagement plan repre- Israel and NATO: Tsents a moment of truth and a point of no return. This plan has unquestionably Opportunities and Risks triggered a profound crisis, challenging and destabilizing many of the truths underlying their world view. An important aspect of this crisis stems from the Zaki Shalom fact that the architect and leader of the disengagement is none other than Ariel Sharon, who until recently served as the community’s chief patron. The crisis n is likely to have far-reaching repercussions. This article will assess the scope of the crisis and its implications, primarily The Recent American for this community but also with an eye to Israeli society as a whole. The threat of civil war has been mentioned more than once, and government ministers, Intelligence Failures Knesset members, and public leaders from various circles regularly discuss the Ephraim Kam need to forestall this possibility. It is therefore important to emphasize from the outset that there is no danger of civil war. In some cases, use of the term n "civil war" reflects attempts to frighten and threaten the general public in order to reduce support for the disengagement. In other instances, it reflects dema- goguery and even ignorance. Yet there can be no civil war in the true sense of Non-Conventional Terrorism: the term without two armed forces, and this means that there can be no civil Availability and Motivation war without a split in the military. During the American Civil War, the military Anat Kurz units of the southern states deserted from the United States army and formed Cont. on page 3 Editor’s Note As this issue of Strategic Assessment religious beliefs and aspirations, this Kam, evaluates the key findings of goes to press, the disengagement is community is searching for practical, the investigative committees formed four months away, scheduled to be- ideological, and religious means to in the United States to examine the gin in mid-July 2005. With the plan grapple with the disengagement. intelligence failures of the September officially approved by the Knesset, In his article, Dr. Mark Heller 11 attack and the war in Iraq. Though much of the focus is no longer on "if," explores some of the ramifications of fundamentally different intelligence but rather "how," and what will be the new Palestinian leadership. Arafat failures, taken together the cases testify the impact on the domestic scene. The has been succeeded by Abu Mazen, to recurring systemic problems in the calls for a national referendum, the but will Arafatism be replaced as intelligence community. Kam reviews legitimacy of refusing military orders, well with a new style of governance some of the suggestions proposed by and the various scenarios for evacua- and a rejection of terror? According the committees to correct these prob- tion sketched by the police, security to Heller, Abu Mazen has yet to make lems as well as the difficulties inherent forces, and opponents of disengage- clear how much he will confront the in their implementation. ment have assumed center stage in violent factions at home and firmly The final article of this issue, writ- the Israeli debate, with increasing quell the opposition to a new chapter ten by Dr. Anat Kurz, discusses what attention paid to the internal social in Israel-Palestinian relations. motivates or restrains terrorist orga- ramifications of the plan. Oded Eran, Israel's ambassador to nizations vis-à-vis their use of non- This is the backdrop for the open- the European Union, recently submit- conventional weapons. Kurz argues ing article, which focuses on one sub- ted a proposal to the NATO directorate that while access to non-conventional culture within the religious Zionist regarding Israel–NATO relations and weapons is clearly a fundamental pre- movement. Written by Dr. Yehuda enhanced cooperation between Israel requisite, it alone does not determine Ben Meir, the article describes the and the organization. In his article, Dr. whether an organization will or will evolution of the ultra-Orthodox na- Zaki Shalom examines the strategic not employ them. Rather, a major tional religious community, among potential for Israel of a closer asso- factor underlying terrorist activity is the sectors most profoundly affected ciation with NATO, and also reviews the organizational motivation for self- by the disengagement, and explores some of the risks to Israel should it preservation, and it is this factor that the deep sense of crisis overwhelm- be offered formal membership in the is crucially linked to the relatively few ing it. Faced with an imminent reality organization. attacks that have involved the use of that challenges much of its national The fourth article, by Dr. Ephraim non-conventional weapons. Editor-in-Chief Managing Editor English Editor Graphic Design Zvi Shtauber Moshe Grundman Judith Rosen Michal Semo Volume 7, No. 4, March 2005 The purpose of Strategic Assessment is Strategic Assessment is a quarterly published by to stimulate and enrich the public debate the Jaffee Center for Stra te gic Studies at on the issues that are, or should be, on Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv 69978 Israel Israel’s national security agenda. Tel: +972-3-640-9926 Fax: +972-3-642-2404 Strategic Assessment is written by JCSS Strategic Assessment is published in English and Hebrew. researchers and guests and is based, The full text of Strategic Assessment is available on the Center’s website: for the most part, on research carried out under JCSS auspices. The views http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/ presented here, however, are those of the authors alone. © Copyright. All rights reserved. ISSN 0793 8942 2 The Disengagement: An Ideological Crisis – cont. the Confederate army, taking their includes a variety of types of people. has the dominant voice. Most Yesha arms and command structure with The residents of Ma'aleh Adumim, Council leaders are associated with them. A similar split in the national Ariel, and Alfei Menashe are different the ideological settlement stream, and military was true of the civil war in from the residents of Elkana, Efrat, the Council’s positions are primarily Spain. Barring a split in the armed and Paduel, who are different from those of the ideological settlers. forces, therefore, there can be no civil the inhabitants of Ofra, Elon Moreh, The settlement movement, which war, and there is little if any possibility Kedumim, and Karnei Shomron, who stands at the forefront of the opposi- that IDF tank, infantry, artillery, or air in turn are different from those of It- tion to the disengagement plan and force units, with their weapons and amar, Har Bracha, Yizhar, and Tapuah. is officially represented by the Yesha commanders, will desert and join the Despite the many faces among set- Council, began to take shape during opponents of disengagement. tler sub-groups, we can draw two the first few months after the Yom However, the fact that the disen- major distinctions: the distinction Kippur War. However, its ideological gagement has not positioned Israel and emotional roots can be traced on the verge of a civil war does not Ideological settlers back to the euphoria that followed mitigate the crisis faced by the Greater Israel’s victory and conquest of Judea Israel proponents. Nor does it reduce are a minority among and Samaria in the Six Day War. This the seriousness of the ramifications of the overall settlement sense of euphoria was experienced disengagement, or ease the difficult by the country as a whole, but took challenges the plan poses to the state population of Judea, on almost messianic overtones in the and Israeli society. Samaria, and the national religious community. The Gaza Strip, but it is the decisive lightning victory of the sov- The Settlement Movement ereign Jewish army and the liberation The population facing this crisis of religious–ideological of geographical areas teeming with consciousness is known by a myriad group that has the national religious meaning (especially of names, including: the settlers, Gush Jerusalem, crowned by the religious Emunim ("Bloc of the Faithful"), the dominant voice. and historical icons of the Western Yesha (the Hebrew acronym for Judea, Wall and the Temple Mount), in Samaria, and Gaza) Council, reli- between the religious population conjunction with the sense of “God’s gious Zionism, the national religious (which includes three ultra-Orthodox speedy redemption,” was understood community, the right wing, and the settlements) and the non-religious as the actualization of the religious Zi- extreme right wing. A better assess- population; and the distinction be- onist ethos – the perfect coalescence of ment of the situation and possible tween ideological settlements and “safra” and “sayfa,” the hand of God developments as the disengagement settlements that arose primarily from and military might. This approach progresses requires a more precise standard of living considerations and even led several religious Zionist definition of the population in ques- affordable housing opportunities. circles to propose canceling the Tisha tion. Most importantly, it requires an These two distinctions do not overlap B’Av fast, or at least the minor fasts understanding of the nuances that completely, but there is a significant that commemorate the destruction of characterize the different sub-groups correlation between the respective po- the temple.