Defence First TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword ................................................................................................................................................. 1 Acknowledgement .................................................................................................................................. 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 3 How did we end up in this mess? ........................................................................................................... 5 1. The inadequacy of Britain’s defence planning today .................................................................. 5 2. 2015 Strategic Defence Review (SDR) ......................................................................................... 6 3. The Breaking the Code of History (BTCH) DEFENCE Review ....................................................... 8 Section 1: Prioritising the geopolitical risks to the nation ...................................................................... 9 1.1. Predicting future geopolitical risks to Britain ......................................................................... 9 1.2. The threat from the rise of an Islamic identity ..................................................................... 10 1.3. Putin’s Russia ........................................................................................................................ 12 1.4. China ..................................................................................................................................... 14 1.4.1. The rapid rise of China .................................................................................................. 14 1.4.2. The inherent Risk of America’s debt ............................................................................. 15 1.4.3. Responding to the Chinese arms race .......................................................................... 15 1.4.4. The return to a bipolar world ........................................................................................ 16 1.4.5. Britain’s policy towards China ....................................................................................... 17 1.4.6. China’s intentions revealed ........................................................................................... 18 1.5. Timing of the next potential major war ................................................................................ 19 1.6. The nature of potential threats based on the cycles of empires .......................................... 20 Section 2: The urgent need for a new British defence policy ............................................................... 21 2.1. Third time unlucky – Britain’s failed history of preparation ................................................. 21 2.2. The forgotten value of deterrence ....................................................................................... 22 2.3. Britain’s historical defence spending .................................................................................... 24 2.4. How would anexpansive predatory nation view Britain today? ........................................... 25 2.5. The danger of Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs) .......................................................... 28 2.6. The MOD and the cost of military acquisitions ..................................................................... 30 2.6.2. The size of the MoD ...................................................................................................... 32 2.6.3. Britain’s military-industrial complex (MIC) ................................................................... 33 2.6.4. The need for reform within the MOD ........................................................................... 34 2.7. The political intention required to defence the nation ........................................................ 35 2.7.1. The need for a strong defence capability ..................................................................... 35 2.7.2. The first intentional step to a solid defence ................................................................. 36 i | P a g e A New Model for Britain’s Defence Forces Defence First 2.7.3. Our approach to defence in the past decade ............................................................... 36 2.7.4. The dysfunctional use of the Armed Forces ................................................................. 37 2.7.5. The role of the National Security Council (NSC) ........................................................... 37 2.7.6. The role of pre-emption ................................................................................................ 39 2.7.7. Summary: Requirement of political intention .............................................................. 39 Section 3: National cyber security ........................................................................................................ 41 3.1. Security of information ......................................................................................................... 41 3.2. Financial integrity .................................................................................................................. 42 3.3. Network vulnerabilities ......................................................................................................... 42 3.4. Big data ................................................................................................................................. 43 3.5. Breaking of codes and integrity of communications ............................................................ 43 3.6. The grey zone and risk of distraction .................................................................................... 43 3.7. The importance of the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) .................... 44 Section 4: Intelligence and Special Forces capabilities ......................................................................... 46 4.1. The Islamic threat ................................................................................................................. 46 4.2. Britain’s Special Forces.......................................................................................................... 47 4.3. Building vital intelligence capability against Russia and China ............................................. 48 Section 5: War at sea – The Royal Navy ................................................................................................ 49 5.1. The relevance of naval power today ..................................................................................... 49 5.2. The strategic nuclear deterrent ............................................................................................ 50 5.3. The future value of aircraft carriers ...................................................................................... 51 5.4. Attack submarines ................................................................................................................ 53 5.5. Amphibious landing capabilities ........................................................................................... 55 5.6. Type 45 air defence destroyers and Type 26 global combat ships (frigates) ....................... 56 5.7. The need for many Corvettes ............................................................................................... 58 5.8. Coastal patrol vessels ............................................................................................................ 60 5.9. Power projection – Replenishment at Sea (RAS) .................................................................. 61 5.10. Future naval RMAs ............................................................................................................ 61 5.10.1. A new breed of ships as revolutionary as the HMS Dreadnought ................................ 61 5.10.2. Air defence and lasers ................................................................................................... 62 5.10.3. The need for power....................................................................................................... 62 5.10.4. The concept of distributed lethality .............................................................................. 63 5.10.5. Anti-torpedo torpedoes ................................................................................................ 63 5.10.6. Drone fleets ................................................................................................................... 63 ii | P a g e A New Model for Britain’s Defence Forces Defence First 5.10.7. Standoff range of Surface to surface missiles. .............................................................. 64 5.11. Reserve Ships .................................................................................................................... 64 5.12. Summary ........................................................................................................................... 64 5.12. Key recommendations for a 100 ship Royal Navy by 2022 (excluding patrol craft) ......... 65 Section 6: War in the air and space – The RAF ..................................................................................... 67 6.1. Air defence of the UK airspace.............................................................................................. 67 6.2.