MASTER'S THESIS Title of the Master's Thesis "East, West, Ukraine - Understanding the Conflict in Ukraine in its Geopolitical Context" submitted by Alexander Seiwald, BA in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts (MA) Vienna 2017 degree program code as it appears on the student record sheet: A 066 824 degree program as it appears on the student record sheet: Masterstudium Politikwissenschaft supervisor: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Dieter Segert ABSTRACT. The conflict in Ukraine remains unresolved. The ceasefire can be described as fragile at best, illusive being a more accurate term. With no political solution in sight, the conflict remains an open wound in the continuously deteriorating East-West relationship. While global attention has been shifting elsewhere in recent years, this analysis revisits the now simmering crisis by deconstructing the two prevailing narratives, which depict the Ukrainian crisis as either caused by Russian aggression or as a consequence of Western interference, and instead applying the analytical frame of geopolitics. This allows for placing the conflict in the context of the current dynamic within the global political system, which is increasingly shaped by tensions and power struggles between the West and re-emerging powers such as Russia and China, and thereby leads to a better understanding of both, the conflict in Ukraine and the current dynamic in global politics. It is demonstrated that the escalation of the situation in Ukraine was the direct result of the country's position as a vital part of the strategic constellation between Russia and the West, and that Ukraine is one of several flashpoints in a much larger, geopolitical, conflict. Keywords: Conflict in Ukraine, Ukrainian Civil War, East-West Conflict, Geopolitics ABSTRACT. Der Ukraine-Konflikt bleibt ungelöst. Die Waffenruhe im Osten des Landes kann im besten Fall als brüchig bezeichnet werden, jedoch ist es fraglich ob diese überaupt existiert. Eine politische Lösung des Konflikts ist weiterhin nicht in Sicht. Somit bleibt diese offene Wunde in den sich weiter verschlechternden Ost-West-Beziehungen bestehen. Die diesbezügliche globale Aufmerksamkeit hat in den vergangenen Jahren wegen der Krisenherde im Nahen Osten, insbesondere in Syrien, und den ebenso zunehmenden Spannungen zwischen Russland und den USA, nachgelassen. Der Ukraine- Konflikt bleibt jedoch ein wesentlicher Faktor in der aktuellen politischen Dynamik zwischen Ost und West. Die beiden primären Narrative, welche den Konflikt entweder als ein neo-imperiales Projekt russischer Außenpolitik oder als eine Konsequenz westlicher Einmischung sehen, haben in den letzten Jahren sowohl den politischen Diskurs als auch das außenpolitische Handlungsspektrum auf beiden Seiten fundamental mitbestimmt. Diese Analyse zielt darauf ab beide Narrative zu dekonstruieren und unter einer geopolitischen Sichtweise zu vereinen, um sowohl ein besseres Verständnis bezüglich der Auslöser und Hintergründe der anhaltenden Ukraine-Krise als auch der derzeitigen globalen politischen Lage zu erhalten. Es wird einerseits deutlich gemacht, dass die Eskalation des Konfliktes eine direkte Konsequenz der geographischen und historischen Rolle der Ukraine als ein entscheidendes strategisches Grenzgebiet zwischen Russland und dem Westen ist, und andererseits aufgezeigt, dass die Krise ein Wendepunkt in einem wesentlich umfangreicheren, geopolitischen Konflikt ist. Dieser Konflikt zeichnet sich durch eine Vielzahl an Spannungspunkten aus und geht weit über die Grenzen der Ukraine hinaus. Keywords: Ukraine-Konflikt, Ukrainischer Bürgerkrieg, Ost-West-Konflikt, Geopolitik 2 Contents 1 Introduction......................................................….................................................................................4 2 Flashpoint Ukraine......................................................….......................................................................7 2.1 From Euromaidan to Chaos........................................................................................................7 2.2 Territorial Disintegration and Civil War......................................................................................9 2.3 The Minsk Process and Beyond................................................................................................11 3 Failing State Ukraine...........................................................................................................................14 3.1 Post-Soviet Transformation Failures........................................................................................14 3.2 The Dire State of Ukrainian Statehood.....................................................................................18 4 The Return of Geopolitics...................................................................................................................24 4.1 Geopolitics: An Old Concept Revived.......................................................................................24 4.2 The Impact of Geography on a Multipolar World....................................................................28 4.3 The Return of Geopolitics as a Core Feature of International Relations..................................37 5 The Crisis in Ukraine in its Geopolitical Context.................................................................................44 5.1 Understanding the Geopolitical Value of Ukraine....................................................................44 5.2 In the Midst of Growing Tensions............................................................................................53 5.3 Georgia: A Final Warning Sign Ignored.....................................................................................60 6 Superpower Flashpoint Ukraine…....………….…………….…….......………….…….….…...….............................64 6.1 Russian Intervention and the Art of Hybrid Warfare................................................................64 6.2 US Involvement and the Policy of Double Standards...............................................................80 6.3 Europe: Unity for Unity's Sake..................................................................................................96 7 Beyond Ukraine................................................................................................................................108 7.1 New Frontlines in a Global Conflict.........................................................................................108 7.2 Permanent Belligerency..........................................................................................................116 8 Conclusions…....……………………………………….…………………........………….……….….…...…..........................121 References…………….......…………….….....…….…….….………………..……………...……….…….…....….…...............124 3 1 Introduction 2016 was a very busy year for international politics. For many observers, the distinct scent of a Cold War atmosphere is getting more and more prominent. With Russia heaving succeeded in pushing itself back on to the global playing field, by forcing other major players to interact with it over the conflict in Ukraine as well as other issues, the United States (US) assertively counteracting the resurging Russian confidence, and Europe once again being caught somewhere in the middle; the Cold War does indeed seem to be experiencing a comeback of sorts. Although the tensions between Russia and the West had been gaining momentum for quite a while before the current crisis in Ukraine unfolded in late 2013, the annexation of Crimea and the ensuing war in the Donbass region, following the Euromaidan revolution, have finally put the East-West relationship back on the mainstream agenda. In the three years since the conflict broke out both, the media and academia alike, have shifted their attention elsewhere. The unexpected Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war, the growing tensions at Europe's eastern borders, and the apparent Russian interference with the recent US presidential election; all pushed the ongoing conflict in Ukraine to the sidelines. In many regards, the conflict in Ukraine has already become history. Today, no one seriously expects Russia to return Crimea to Ukraine, or for the separatists to surrender the control over their territories, anytime soon. Russia is building a bridge to Crimea, representatives from Crimea have been elected into the Russian State Duma, and the Ukrainian government has long ago granted the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk a certain degree of autonomy under the Minsk II agreement. The situation has, in other words, turned into a protracted conflict with no end in sight. Very much like the peace process itself, the debate over how the Ukrainian crisis unfolded remains locked in a stalemate. Today, as in the early moments of the crisis, the same two narratives are standing their ground in opposition to each other. On the one side there is the Western narrative, depicting the situation as a conflict between Russia as the aggressor and Ukraine as the victim of a Russian neo-imperialistic foreign policy. This is also the view portrayed by the post-Euromaidan government in Kiev. On the other side, the Russian narrative describes the conflict as an internal conflict between an illegitimate pro-Western government and a pro-Russian separatist movement, which was largely facilitated by Western interference in domestic Ukrainian matters, at the expense of Russian security interests. One of the most striking