IFS Insights 4/2019 India Elects: what are the implications for the country’s foreign and security policy? by Lars Tore Flåten The Indian election is already underway Takeaways and takes place in seven phases, from 11 April to 19 May. India had entered election mode when the terror attack in • Security policy is important in this year’s elec- Kashmir claimed the lives of forty police tion. This is mainly due to the recent tensions in force personnel. This event, as well as the Kashmir. subsequent Indian response, placed secu- rity policy higher up on the agenda than it • India’s two largest parties, the Congress Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have different usually is in Indian elections. For this re- approaches when it comes to responding to terror ason, it is pertinent to explore the foreign attacks from groups based in Pakistan. The BJP policy legacy of the current government has a lower threshold for applying military force in India, which is dominated by the Hindu against Pakistan. nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The article also examines what is at stake • The two parties also seem to differ when it comes to India’s approach to alignments, particularly for India and Asia when the country’s 900 with Japan and the United States. Million eligible voters cast their ballot. The author belongs to the Centre for International Security. © Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, Oslo 2019. ISSN 1894-4795 IFS Insights 4/2019 2 India Elects THE BJP AND THE CONGRESS PARTY NEIGHBOURHOOD FIRST The two largest parties in India are the BJP A key pillar of the foreign policy during the and the Congress Party. The latter governed Modi administration has been the so-called India from 2005in to 2014. It derives much of its political appeal from India’s freedom policy denotes an attempt to improve India’s struggle and the legacy of the Nehru-Gandhi relations“Neighbourhood with the first” South doctrine. Asian neighbours. This line of dynasty. The Congress Party is also closely To a certain extent, it is motivated by the sig- associated with the idea of secularism as the foundational principle of the modern Indian traditional sphere of interest.1 Modi’s an- nation state. By contrast, the ideological aim nouncementnificant inroads of this made policy by China in 2014 into was India’s met of the BJP is to strengthen and promote the with cautious optimism throughout the re- Hindu nature of India – often at the expense gion and Modi invited all South Asian leaders of religious minorities, namely Muslims and to his inauguration, including the Pakistani Christians. Although not particularly visi- Prime Minster, Nawaz Sharif. Relations with ble during the election campaign in 2014, most of the neighbours, however, soon de- Hindu nationalist ideology has represented teriorated. With growing unrest in Kashmir, a constant factor during Prime Minister culminating in the recent escalation between Modi’s reign, and more than ever before an India and Pakistan, the relationship between authoritarian form of Hindu nationalism the two nuclear neighbours is colder than characterizes Indian society. A key element it has been in decades. For Modi, whose throughout Modi’s reign has been his efforts political image as a proactive and strong lea- Hindu-based India. When it comes to foreign might rally support for him in the ongoing policy,to convey however, an image the ofdifferences a strong, confidentbetween theand elections.der of a resurgent This is, however, India, the only recent one conflict possible outcome. Modi has received substantial cri- is still a developing country, and the foreign ticism from opposition parties for exploiting policytwo parties of both are the more Congress difficult Party to grasp. and the India BJP the issue for political gain. Moreover, the op- tend to be driven by economic considera- position has also questioned if the air attack tions. Another factor that both the previous against the alleged training facilities of the Congress government and the current BJP Jaish-e-Mohammad in Pakistan was neces- government has had to take into account is sary and whether it was successful.2 Both the BJP and the opposition seem to be balancing China. China’s expansion in the South Asian a tight rope when referring to this topic. All regionhow to hasrespond become to the evident growing throughout influence the of parties obviously want to stand up for the na- last decade. China is India’s most important tion in times of distress, at the same time as trading partner, at the same time as it is there are obvious risks connected to placing perceived as a threat to India’s security. To too much emphasis on security threats or for criticizing the armed forces. When it comes to Pakistan no Indian government wants to economicallyIndia, it has become with China increasingly at the same difficult time as appear compliant, but there are some inte- itto expands find the rightits strategic balance ties between with both engaging the US resting differences between the previous and Japan – to some extent against China. In Congress-led government and the current the remainder of this article, I examine the BJP-government. In the aftermath of the ter- foreign policy legacy of the BJP government ror attacks in Mumbai in 2008, the Congress- in light of these challenges. I pay particular led government chose not to retaliate against attention to any differences between the BJP Pakistan. By contrast, the BJP-government and the Congress Party. appears to have a lower threshold for apply- ing military force. In 2016, Indian security forces in Kashmir were attacked by terro- rists. India chose to respond by conducting © Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, Oslo 2019. ISSN 1894-4795 IFS Insights 4/2019 3 India Elects surgical strikes on the Pakistani side of the the relationship between India and Nepal Line of Control in Kashmir. The recent events has improved since 2016, but it has not been in Kashmir show that the BJP government is fully restored. willing to go even further by employing its When it comes to improving relations air force, also outside of Pakistan-controlled with neighbouring countries, Bangladesh is Kashmir.3 the only positive example. These improve- BJP to abstain from using force in the event ments date back to 2008, but they have inten- of renewed Thus, tensions it might with be Pakistan difficult in for the the fu - ture. and Bangladesh have settled their border With regard to the smaller neighbours disputes,sified significantly increased during bilateral Modi’s trade reign. and expan India - in South Asia, the BJP government has had ded their security cooperation – especially at limited success. At the start of Modi’s tenure, sea.8 This development, however, has not ta- there was widespread fear in India regarding in Bangladesh. To the contrary, Bangladesh Lanka. This culminated as the two countries andken placeChina at established the expense a strategic of China’s partnership influence signedthe significant an agreement inroads concerning China made the in lease Sri of in 2016 and as much as 20 percent of China’s the port of Hambantota to China for arms exports go to Bangladesh. Moreover, 99 years.4 India was worried that this would Bangladesh is fully committed to China’s Belt enable China to establish a stronger presence and Road Initiative, which also includes the in the Indian Ocean. To some extent, relations construction of ports close to India’s border.9 with Sri Lanka have improved. This is partly due to increased skepticism regarding the policy has not contributed to improving long-term consequences of Sri Lanka’s debt India’s To conclude, standing inModi’s the South neighbourhood Asian region. first to China. Moreover, Chinese initiatives have - not created more jobs for the population in roads into India’s immediate neighbourhood, Sri Lanka. This has opened the door to other andChina India has iscontinued still perceived to make as significantdominant and in external actors, including India and Japan. In somewhat arrogant by its smaller neigh- fact, India has on several occasions tried to bours. Thus, in this respect there are high convey a contrast to China by stating that all degrees of continuity between Modi’s BJP of its investments abroad are to be accompa- and previous governments. nied by responsible debt arrangements.5 Modi has received a lot of domestic cri- tique for his dealings with Nepal. This is ACT EAST mainly due to Indian attempts to interfere in A second major priority of the Modi govern- Nepal’s constitution-writing process in 2015- ment is Act East. This line of policy refers to 16. Nepal refused to comply with Indian de- Indian aims to upgrade its relations with the ASEAN10 powers and with East Asia, particu- blockade of Nepal which lasted for several larly with Japan. This policy was not an in- months.mands, which6 The blockade again led again to an openedofficial Indianthe vention of the BJP government. It was initia- door for China, and in the following months ted in the early 1990s, and has been adhered China and Nepal signed several agreements to by every government since then – under on infrastructural development, security coo- peration and also agreed to conduct a joint to convey was that the time had come for a military exercise.7 This development created morethe name proactive “Look approach East”. What that Modi would wanted not only large headlines in New Delhi, as India feared include improved economic relations but that China was in the process of getting the also security cooperation.11 To some extent, upper hand in Nepal – a country that has tra- Modi has been able to facilitate such coopera- tion.