CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS No. 6(36), 2005 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies 6(36) 2005 CA&CC Press SWEDEN 1 No. 6(36), 2005FOUNDED AND PUBLISHEDCENTRAL ASIA AND BYTHE CAUCASUS INSTITUTE INSTITUTE OF FOR CENTRAL ASIAN AND STRATEGIC STUDIES OF CAUCASIAN STUDIES THE CAUCASUS Registration number: 620720-0459 Registration number: M-770 State Administration for Ministry of Justice of Patents and Registration of Sweden Azerbaijan Republic PUBLISHING HOUSE CA&CC Press. SWEDEN Registration number: 969713-2695 Journal registration number: 23 614 State Administration for Patents and Registration of Sweden E d i t o r i a l C o u n c i l Eldar Chairman of the Editorial Council ISMAILOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 497 12 22 E-mail: [email protected] Murad ESENOV Editor-in-Chief Tel./fax: (46) 920 62016 E-mail: [email protected] Irina EGOROVA Executive Secretary (Moscow) Tel.: (7 - 095) 3163146 E-mail: [email protected] Klara represents the journal in Kazakhstan (Almaty) KHAFIZOVA Tel./fax: (7 - 3272) 67 51 72 E-mail: [email protected] Ainura ELEBAEVA represents the journal in Kyrgyzstan (Bishkek) Tel.: (996 - 312) 51 26 86 E-mail: [email protected] Jamila MAJIDOVA represents the journal in Tajikistan (Dushanbe) Tel.: (992 - 372) 21 79 03 E-mail: [email protected] Mukhabat represents the journal in Uzbekistan (Tashkent) KHAMRAEVA Tel.: (998 - 71) 184 94 91 E-mail: [email protected] Jannatkhan represents the journal in Azerbaijan (Baku) EYVAZOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 499 11 74 E-mail: [email protected] Aghasi YENOKIAN represents the journal in Armenia (Erevan) Tel.: (374 - 1) 54 10 22 E-mail: [email protected] Guram represents the journal in Georgia (Tbilisi) GOGIASHVILI Tel.: (995 - 32) 98 96 33 E-mail: [email protected] Konrad SCHÄFFLER represents the journal in Germany (Munich) Tel.: (49 - 89) 3003132 E-mail: [email protected] Sun ZHUANGZHI represents the journal in China (Beijing) Tel.: (86) 10-64039088 E-mail: [email protected] Vladimir MESAMED represents the journal in the Middle East (Jerusalem) Tel.: (972 - 2) 5882332 E-mail: [email protected] Rustem ZHANGUZHIN represents the journal in Ukraine (Kiev) Tel.: (380-44) 524-79-13 E-mail: [email protected] 2 CENTRAL ASIA AND THEE DCAUCASUS I T O R I A L B O A R D No. 6(36), 2005 Giuli ALASANIA Doctor of History, professor, Vice Rector of the International Black Sea University (Georgia) Bülent ARAS Doctor, Chair, Department of International Relations, Fatih University (Turkey) Mariam ARUNOVA Doctor of Political Science, leading research associate, Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS (Russian Federation) Garnik ASATRIAN Doctor of Philology, professor, head of the Department of Iranian Studies, Erevan State University (Armenia) Murat AUEZOV Executive Director, Soros-Kazakhstan Foundation (Kazakhstan) Bakyt BESHIMOV Doctor of History, professor, Vice President, American University-Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) Ariel COHEN Doctor, leading analyst, The Heritage Foundation, U.S.A. (U.S.A.) William FIERMAN Doctor of Political Science, Professor of Indiana University (U.S.A.) Paul GOBLE Senior Advisor, Voice of America (U.S.A.) Sergei GRETSKY Doctor, Chair of Central Asian Studies, Foreign Service Institute, U.S. Department of State (U.S.A.) Xing GUANGCHENG Doctor of Political Science, professor, Deputy Director of the Institute for East European, Russian and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (China) Alexander IGNATENKO Doctor of Philosophy, specialist in Islamic studies, leading expert of the Institute of Social Systems, Moscow State University, member of the Council for Cooperation with Religious Associations under the Russian Federation President (Russian Federation) Ashurboi IMOMOV Ph.D. (Law), assistant professor, head of the Department of Constitutional Law, Tajik National University (Tajikistan) Lena JONSON Doctor, senior researcher, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (Sweden) Hasan KULIEV Doctor of Philosophy, professor, department head, Institute of Philosophy, AS of Azerbaijan, Editor-in-Chief of The Caucasus & Globalization journal (Azerbaijan) Jacob M. LANDAU Professor of Political Science, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel) S. Neil MACFARLANE Professor, Director, Center for International Studies, The University of Oxford (Great Britain) Alexei MALASHENKO Doctor of History, professor, Scholar-in-Residence, Ethnicity and Nation-Building Program Co-Chair, The Carnegie Moscow Center (Russian Federation) Abbas MALEKI Dr., Director General, International Institute for Caspian Studies (Iran) Akira Ph.D., History of Central Asia and the Caucasus, Program Officer, The Sasakawa Peace MATSUNAGA Foundation (Japan) Roger N. McDERMOTT Honorary Senior Research Fellow, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Kent at Canterbury (UK) Vitaly NAUMKIN Doctor of History, professor, Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies of RF (Russian Federation) Yerengaip OMAROV Professor, Rector of Kainar University, President of the Academy of Natural Sciences, Republic of Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan) Vladimer PAPAVA Doctor of Economics, professor, Corresponding member of the Georgian Academy of Sciences, Senior Fellow of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Georgia) S. Frederick STARR Professor, Chairman, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University (U.S.A.) Farkhod TOLIPOV Ph.D. (Political Science), assistant professor, Political Science Department, National University of Uzbekistan (Uzbekistan) The materials that appear in the journal do not necessarily reflect the Editorial Board and the Editors’ opinion Editorial Office: CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Hubertusstigen 9. 97455 Luleå SWEDEN WEB ADDRESS: http://www.ca-c.org © Central Asia and the Caucasus, 2005 3 © CA&CC Press, 2005 No. 6(36), 2005 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies No. 6(36), 2005 IN THIS ISSUE: D E M O C R A C Y A N D T R A N S I T I O N P E R I O D Sergey Zhiltsov. REVOLUTIONARY WAVES IN THE POST-SOVIET EXPANSE ...................................... 7 Arthur Atanesian. PARADOXES OF DEMOCRACY AND DEMOCRATIZATION TRENDS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS ........... 13 Nikolai Borisov. TRANSFORMATION IN THE POLITICAL REGIME IN UZBEKISTAN: STAGES AND OUTCOME .......................... 22 B O R D E R I S S U E Ekaterina THE BORDERS BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN, Arkhipova. GEORGIA, AND RUSSIA: SOVIET HERITAGE ......................... 33 R E G I O N A L P O L I T I C S Rashid Abdullo. CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES AND THE UNITED STATES: UPS AND DOWNS IN THEIR RELATIONSHIPS ......................... 43 4 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS No. 6(36), 2005 Rauf Garagozov. COLLECTIVE MEMORY AND MEMORY POLITICS IN THE CENTRAL CAUCASIAN COUNTRIES ............................... 51 Irina Babich. THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS: THE STATEHOOD ISSUE AS TREATED BY THE NATIONAL, ISLAMIC, AND POLITICAL MOVEMENTS ..................................... 60 Sergey Minasian. ARMENIA AND THE EU’S EUROPEAN NEIGHBORHOOD POLICY PROGRAM ....................................................................... 69 R E G I O N A L S E C U R I T Y Irina Komissina. AFGHANISTAN: DRUG TRAFFICKING AND REGIONAL SECURITY .................................................................. 83 Valery Petukhov. THE NORTH CAUCASIAN PRESS ABOUT TERRORISM ............ 93 Abdurakhmon Makhmadov, Makhfirat TAJIKISTAN: NEW STABILITY THREATS AND Khidirova. HOW TO AVOID THEM ................................................................ 98 R E G I O N A L E C O N O M I E S Malcolm Dowling, Ganeshan TURNING THE CORNER: Wignaraja. THE ECONOMIC REVIVAL OF CENTRAL ASIA ........................... 104 Gulnur INTEGRATION PROCESSES IN CENTRAL ASIA. Rakhmatullina. PROSPECTS FOR A COMMON MARKET .................................... 115 Lasha THE IMF IN GEORGIA: EVALUATING Tchantouridzé. THE FUND’S UNIQUE VISION OF ECONOMIC SUCCESS ......... 121 E T H N I C R E L A T I O N S A N D P O P U L A T I O N M I G R A T I O N Saodat Olimova. MIGRATION IN THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF EURASIA: PAST AND PRESENT (Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) ............................................................ 130 Sudaba Zeynalova. GERMANS IN AZERBAIJAN: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS ... 142 5 No. 6(36), 2005 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Mamuka Komakhia. THE GREEKS OF GEORGIA: MIGRATION AND SOCIOECONOMIC PROBLEMS ..................... 150 FOR YOUR INFORMATION The Special Feature section in the next issue will discuss: Central Asia and the Caucasus n What Makes the Parliamentary and Presidential Elections in Central Asia and the Caucasus Specific n Political and Economic Development Trends n World and Regional Centers of Power and their Impact on the Regional Situation 6 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS No. 6(36), 2005 DEMOCRACY AND TRANSITION PERIOD REVOLUTIONARY WAVES IN THE POST-SOVIET EXPANSE Sergey ZHILTSOV D.Sc. (Political Science), observer for the journal Vestnik Kaspiia (Moscow, Russia) he tempestuous events over the past two The situation which has developed in the years in several CIS countries have led to the Commonwealth states is, first, the result of the T formation of a qualitatively new geopoliti- geopolitical rivalry among Russia, Europe, and cal, economic, and political situation in the post- the U.S. for domination throughout the expans- Soviet expanse. Although the assessments of these es of the former Soviet Union, second, is caused events are largely emotional (some