Mansoor Ahmed Director (MENA Region) – Research & Advisory 1 Colliers International MENA World Changes Affecting & Disrupting Real Estate 2 Industry 4.0 Artificial Intelligence Coworking Air BNB Changing Traditional Retail The Digital Economy Telemedicine 3 Residential Retail Offices Hospitality Healthcare Education Logistics? The Last Mile Logistic! 4 Iconomy 5 46% 50% Prefer to buy in Make their first purchase 71% a physical store through a retailer 47% Use mobile Make repeat purchase in stores through a marketplace 60% 82% Of all ecommerce Are willing to have their traffic is on a product shipped to mobile device home within 24 hours SHOPPER- FIRST FACTS 6 Ecommerce Global Market Value UK Russia Germany Canada USD 93 Billion USD 19 Billion USD 44 Billion USD 77 Billion Japan USD 87 Billion France USA USD 55 Billion South Korea USD 561 Billion USD 69 Billion China USD 740 Billion Brazil USD 16 Billion 7 USD 2.8 Trillion of e-commerce sales in 2018 20% CAGR between 2018 - 2021 8 1.2 Million Sqft required for every Billion Dollars Prologis 53% of delivery costs are in the “last mile” – BI Business Intelligence Incider 9 So What About Cairo? The Truck Route – Already Well Established and Developed The Opportunity? Rapid Delivery Network Service Zone New Real Estate Asset Class? Consolidation Hub Micro – hub Truck Route Last Mile Route 11 Standby Couriers Pick up Drop Off (Centralized Hub) Home Offices Stores Anywhere 12 So why and where for Greater Cairo? 13 What Density Map Illustrates Cairo? 14 What Density Map Illustrates Cairo? Karachi New York 50,084 ppl/km2 38,242 ppl/km2 Cairo 153,606 ppl/km2 Shanghai 77,726 ppl/km2 London 18,769 ppl/km2 15 How Big is the Egyptian Market? 16 Online Sales in Egypt USD 1.0 Billion 16% CAGR USD 0.6 Billion 2021 2018 41% 26% 6% 70% Internet Smart Phone Credit Cards Of population are penetration rate Penetration rate Penetration rate below 35 years of age 17 Online Retail As a Percentage of Total Retail Sales 18.4% 8.2% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 18 Internet Users In Egypt 10% CAGR 40 Million of 53 Million of internet users in 2018 internet users in 2021 41% 8% CAGR 51% Internet Penetration in 2018 Internet Penetration in 2021 19 Smart Phone Users In Egypt 8% CAGR 26 Million of smart 33 Million of smart phone users in 2018 phone users in 2021 26% 6% CAGR 31% Smart Phone Penetration in 2018 Smart Phone Penetration in 2021 20 Online Buyers Payment Preferences 24 million online buyer in 2018 6% Others (i.e. PayPal) 72% Cash 10% CAGR 33 million in 2021 22% Credit card Preferred online payment method 5.8 million credit cards in 2017 40% CAGR 21 22 million in 2021 Online Shopping Evolution 2010 2011 2012 2015 2017 2018 2019 22 Growth of Homegrown Logistics/ Couriers 2010 2011 2012 2015 2017 2018 2019 23 Population Density In Greater Cairo Obour City Marg Al-Matariya Shubra Ain Shams El-Kheima Zatoun Cairo New Heliopolis Shubra (Zeitoun) International Airport (CAI) Shorouk Boulaq El-Quba Sheraton Shorouk Shubra Heliopolis Residence City Badr City Boulaq Heliopolis Imbaba Aboul-Ela Kitkat Faggala Abbassia Madinaty Agouza Zamalek Downtown Mohandesin Downtown Nasr NasrCity City Dokki Islamic Kerdassa New Cairo City Garden Cairo New Cairo City Kafr CityOld Cairo Sheikh Tuhmous Giza Zayed Giza city Mukattam Omrania Ein El-Sirah 6th of October city 6th of October city Haram Monib MaadiMaadi Zahra’a Al- El-Hadba El- Maadi Wosta Rhoda Pyramids Kafr Manial Gardens Ghatati Turah Low Density High Density Masarra 24 Traffic Density In Greater Cairo Downtown Cairo 5KM radius ~ 45 mins driving time ~ 60 mins driving time Shopping Malls 25 Existing Locations In Greater Cairo Shubra Shorouk Heliopolis Downtown Nasr City New Cairo City Giza 6th of October city Maadi Low Density High Density Logistics Hub 26 Consumers'’ Affordability Levels In Greater Cairo Shubra Shorouk Heliopolis Downtown Nasr City New Cairo City Giza 6th of October city Maadi Overlay Population Density with Affordability Levels? Low Income High Income 27 So What Locations ? Shubra Shorouk Heliopolis Downtown Nasr City New Cairo City Giza 6th of October city Maadi Low Density High Density Government / Embassies expected to be relocated to New Administrative City 28 The Mix & Match Shubra Shorouk Heliopolis Downtown Nasr City New Cairo City Giza 6th of October city Maadi Overlay Population Density with Affordability Levels? Low Density High Density 29 The Answer! Shubra Shorouk Heliopolis Downtown Nasr City New Cairo City Giza 6th of October city Maadi Opportunities for Centralized Hubs? Low Income High Income 30 20% Non-Residential Land Allocation in New Cities Opportunities Created Through Last Mile? 31 20% Non-Residential Land Allocation in New Cities Opportunities Created Through Last Mile? Logistics Hubs Self Pick Up and Drop Off 32 Last Mile & Hub Logistics The New Generation of Asset Class 33 Real Estate Real Advisors Real Advice 34.