Great Lakes - St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management (GLAM) Committee Annex 1: Supplementary impact assessment information for Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River November 26, 2018 i Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management (GLAM) Committee Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Annex 1 – Impact Assessment Contents Contents ................................................................................................................................... ii 1.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Impact Assessment Background .......................................................................................... 1 3.0 Municipal and Industrial ...................................................................................................... 3 3.1 Summary of GLAM work and other agency activities to assess impacts .................... 3 3.2 Media coverage ............................................................................................................. 5 3.3 Impacts of 2017 water level conditions ........................................................................ 7 3.3.1 Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River – State of New York .................... 7 3.3.2 Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River – Province of Ontario ................. 13 3.2.3 St. Lawrence River – Province of Quebec .............................................................. 16 3.3 Model/PI validation .................................................................................................... 16 3.4 Adaptive responses ..................................................................................................... 17 4.0 Commercial Navigation ..................................................................................................... 19 4.1 Summary of GLAM work and other agency activities to assess impacts .................. 19 4.2 Media coverage ........................................................................................................... 19 4.3 Impacts of 2017 water level conditions ...................................................................... 20 4.3.1 Lake Ontario (Welland Canal to St. Lawrence River – Cape Vincent) .................. 20 4.3.2 St. Lawrence Ship Channel (Below the Port of Montreal) ..................................... 26 4.4 Model Assessment/PI validation ................................................................................ 27 4.4.1 Commercial Navigation PIs .................................................................................... 27 4.5 Adaptive responses ..................................................................................................... 29 4.6 General surveillance ................................................................................................... 30 5.0 Hydropower ........................................................................................................................ 32 5.1 Summary of GLAM work and other agency activities to assess impacts .................. 32 5.2 Media coverage ........................................................................................................... 32 5.3 Impacts of 2017 water level conditions ...................................................................... 32 5.4 Model Assessment/PI validation ................................................................................ 37 5.4.1 Hydropower PIs ...................................................................................................... 37 5.5 Adaptive responses ..................................................................................................... 40 5.6 General surveillance ................................................................................................... 40 6.0 Coastal Impacts .................................................................................................................. 42 6.1 Summary of GLAM work and other agency activities to assess impacts .................. 42 ii Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management (GLAM) Committee Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Annex 1 – Impact Assessment 6.2 Media Coverage .......................................................................................................... 48 6.3 Impacts of 2017 water level conditions ...................................................................... 51 6.3.1 Lake Ontario and upper St. Lawrence River – State of New York ........................ 52 6.3.2 Lake Ontario and upper St. Lawrence River – Province of Ontario ....................... 77 6.3.3 Lower St. Lawrence River .................................................................................... 100 6.4 Model/PI validation ..................................................................................................... 115 Example Photographs Submitted by Property Owners ..................................................... 121 7.0 Ecosystem ........................................................................................................................ 127 7.1 Summary of GLAM work and other agency activities to assess impacts ................ 127 7.1.1 GLAM Related Activities: .................................................................................... 127 7.2 Media coverage ......................................................................................................... 129 7.3 Impacts of 2017 water level conditions .................................................................... 130 7.4 General surveillance ................................................................................................. 137 7.5 Model/PI validation .................................................................................................. 138 7.5.1 Lake Ontario and Upper River model efforts and Results:................................... 138 7.5.2 Lower St. Lawrence River model efforts and results: .......................................... 142 7.6 Adaptive responses ................................................................................................... 149 8.0 Recreational Boating and Tourism ................................................................................... 150 8.1 Summary of GLAM work and other agency activities to assess impacts ................ 150 8.2 Media Coverage ........................................................................................................ 152 8.3 Impacts/Benefits of 2017 water level conditions ..................................................... 153 8.3.1 Lake Ontario – State of New York ....................................................................... 153 8.3.2 Lake Ontario – Province of Ontario...................................................................... 161 8.3.3 Upper St. Lawrence River – State of New York and Province of Ontario ........... 170 8.3.4 Lower St. Lawrence River – Montreal to Trois-Rivières ..................................... 173 8.4 Model/PI validation .............................................................................................. 179 8.5 Adaptive responses ................................................................................................... 180 8.6 Surveillance .............................................................................................................. 181 References ......................................................................................................................... 183 Cover photo: High water conditions near Fair Haven, New York Photo credit: US Army Corps of Engineers, June 2017. iii Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management (GLAM) Committee Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Annex 1 – Impact Assessment 1.0 Introduction This Annex (Annex 1) provides further information on the impacts of 2017 water level and flow conditions within the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system on various interest categories and is intended as a supplemental reference to the main report. The year 2017 provided a unique opportunity to gather data under extreme conditions and the GLAM Committee endeavored to collect or gain access to as much data and information as possible about the impacts that occurred in 2017 across many different areas of interest. While it was well beyond the GLAM Committee’s current resources to pursue this information whole- scale, the GLAM Committee concentrated on the most efficient data collection efforts by focusing on information that could contribute in the short term to the evaluation of the existing agreed-upon performance metrics. Having said that, much of the quantitative economic data on impacts from high water levels in 2017 needed to support the validation of models used to evaluate the performance of the regulation plans is not yet available and, in some cases, may never be available. It should also be noted that effects of the 2017 event on some performance indicators are not observed within a year of the extreme conditions. For example, it may be several years before the 2017 impacts to the ecosystem are realized in full. The GLAM Committee is acutely aware of the dangers of making premature conclusions based on what has been observed and reported since the spring of 2017. Aside from the efforts reported on here, it is critical to pursue the development of a long-term monitoring strategy to ensure that the GLAM Committee continues to collect the information