THE 16 DREW PER PA S Casting Net Assessment Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War John M. Schutte Lieutenant Colonel, USAF Air University Steven L. Kwast, Lieutenant General, Commander and President School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Thomas D. McCarthy, Colonel, Commandant and Dean AIR UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF ADVANCED AIR AND SPACE STUDIES Casting Net Assessment Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War John M. Schutte Lieutenant Colonel, USAF Drew Paper No. 16 Air University Press Air Force Research Institute Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama Project Editor Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Jeanne K. Shamburger Schutte, John M., 1976– Copy Editor Casting net assessment : Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic Carolyn Burns community of the Cold War / John M. Schutte, Lieutenant Colonel, USAF. Cover Art, Book Design, and Illustrations pages cm. — (Drew paper ; no. 16) Daniel L. Armstrong Includes bibliographical references. Composition and Prepress Production ISBN 978-1-58566-240-1 (alk. paper) Nedra O. Looney 1. Marshall, Andrew W., 1921– 2. United States. Department of Defense. Director of Net Assessment—Biography. 3. United Print Preparation and Distribution States. Department of Defense—Officials and employees— Diane Clark Biography. 4 Rand Corporation—Biography. 5. United States— Forecasting. 6. Military planning—United States—History— 20th century. 7. Military planning—United States—History—21st century. 8. United States—Military policy. 9. Strategy. 10. Cold War. I. Title. II. Title: Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the Cold War. UA23.6.S43 2014 AIR FORCE RESEARCH INSTITUTE 355.0092—dc23 [B] AIR UNIVERSITY PRESS 2014035197 Director and Publisher Allen G. Peck Editor in Chief Published by Air University Press in February 2015 Oreste M. Johnson Managing Editor Demorah Hayes Design and Production Manager Cheryl King Air University Press 155 N. Twining St., Bldg. 693 Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-6026 [email protected] http://aupress.au.af.mil/ Disclaimer http://afri.au.af.mil/ Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily repre- sent the official policy or position of the organizations with which they are associated or the views of the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, Air Force Research Institute, Air University, United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. This publication is cleared for public release and unlimited distribution. AFRI This Drew Paper and others in the series are available electronically Air Force Research Institute at the AU Press website: http://aupress.au.af.mil. ii The Drew Papers The Drew Papers are award-winning master’s theses selected for publica- tion by the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (SAASS), Maxwell AFB, Alabama. This series of papers commemorates the distinguished career of Col Dennis “Denny” Drew, USAF, retired. In 30 years at Air University, Colonel Drew served on the Air Command and Staff College faculty, directed the Airpower Research Institute, and served as dean, associate dean, and pro- fessor of military strategy at SAASS. Colonel Drew is one of the Air Force’s most extensively published authors and an international speaker in high de- mand. He has lectured to over 100,000 students at Air University as well as to foreign military audiences. In 1985 he received the Muir S. Fairchild Award for outstanding contributions to Air University. In 2003 Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands made him a Knight in the Order of Orange-Nassau for his con- tributions to education in the Royal Netherlands Air Force. The Drew Papers are dedicated to promoting the understanding of air and space power theory and application. These studies are published by the Air University Press and broadly distributed throughout the US Air Force, the Department of Defense, and other governmental organizations, as well as to leading scholars, selected institutions of higher learning, public-policy insti- tutes, and the media. iii Please send inquiries or comments to Commandant and Dean School of Advanced Air and Space Studies 125 Chennault Circle Maxwell AFB, AL 36112 Tel: (334) 953-5155 DSN: 493-5155 [email protected] iv Contents Foreword vii About the Author ix Acknowledgments xi Abstract xiii 1 Introduction 1 2 The Wider View 5 3 Alchemy for RAND’s Golden Years 21 4 From Organizational Behavior to Bureaucrat 49 Epilogue 81 Abbreviations 85 Bibliography 87 v vi Foreword Andrew Marshall is among the United States’ elite defense intellectuals. He was a member of the first generation of civilians devoted to strategic and military studies following World War II. From his perch at the RAND Corporation, he authored and advised on numerous early Cold War studies delineating strategy in the nuclear age. By the 1960s, he was an enabling intellectual partner to some of the era’s most prominent thinkers, among then Herman Kahn and Bernard Brodie. During that tumultuous decade, he advised the Central Intelligence Agency on a range of issues, many of which remain shrouded in secrecy. In the early 1970s he began working directly for the Department of Defense as the di- rector of Net Assessment, the Pentagon’s in-house think tank. In this capacity, Marshall has served seven presidents and 13 defense secretaries. In all these roles across nearly 65 years of service, Andy Marshall has contributed to America’s defense establishment like few others, in uniform or out. Certainly no one has matched his longevity at the task, and precious few have had a greater impact on the intellectual foundations of American strategy since World War II. In this masterful account, Lt Col John Schutte traces Marshall’s life and times until the point Marshall assumed his job with Net Assessment. Born of modest circumstances near Detroit, Marshall’s cerebral talents found succor in the vibrant Michigan public schools of the 1920s and ’30s. Factory work during World War II fired his quest for further education, taking him to graduate studies at the University of Chicago and then to RAND, the first “think tank,” in 1949. Schutte finds sinews between Marshall as a young man and his later persona as a mature analyst of foreign policy, especially in Marshall’s knack as an incubator and facilitator of group inquiry at RAND and the CIA. Despite Marshall’s long shadow over America’s defense establishment, there is no serious extant inquiry into his life. Schutte’s treatment of Marshall aims to rectify that situation as it re- lates to the first half of Marshall’s life. It succeeds most admirably. Colonel Schutte’s Casting Net Assessment: Andrew W. Marshall and the Epis- temic Community of the Cold War received the USAF Historical Foundation’s award for best School of Advanced Air and Space Studies history thesis of 2012. It stands as a model of broadly based, rigorous, and imaginative analysis to all who believe that strategic thinking can be profitably informed by cogent his- torical investigation. THOMAS ALEXANDER HUGHES Professor of Airpower History School of Advanced Air and Space Studies vii About the Author Lt Col John M. Schutte graduated from the University of Virginia with a degree in history in 1999. He gained his commission through the Reserve Officer Training Corps and completed navigator training at Randolph AFB, Texas. He flew C-130s at Ramstein AB, Germany, prior to his selection for the Air Force Intern Program. As an intern, Colonel Schutte served rotations as a junior military assistant to the deputy secretary of defense and in the Head- quarters Air Force Concepts and Strategy Division. He went on to serve as a country director for the undersecretary of the Air Force for international af- fairs. Before attending the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, he served as an instructor navigator and the director of staff for the 374th Airlift Wing at Yokota AB, Japan. Colonel Schutte is a senior navigator with over 1,600 flying hours and combat time in Operations Joint Forge, Iraqi Freedom, and Enduring Freedom. Following graduation from the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, Colonel Schutte served in the chief of staff of the Air Force’s Strategic Studies Group, Headquarters Air Force, the Pentagon. He went on to command an expeditionary operations support squadron in Southwest Asia from June 2013 through June 2014. Colonel Schutte matricu- lated at Princeton in August 2014 to pursue a PhD in public and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School. ix Acknowledgments It takes a village to birth a School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (SAASS) thesis, and many deserve special acknowledgment. Thanks go first to the SAASS faculty for striving to impart the most important skill set to which we can aspire as military officers—the ability to think strategically. Theirs is a noble and sometimes fruitless cause. In my case, some deserve particular recognition for their mentorship and patience. Thank you to Dr. Stephen Chiabotti, Dr. James Forsyth, and Dr. James Kiras for encouraging me to pursue a lifelong goal and then not judging my subsequent vacillation. My appreciation also goes to Dr. Thomas Hughes for his mentorship, writing expertise, and friendship during this year. I benefited greatly from his talents as a teacher. Beyond the insular gates of the “best hometown in the Air Force,” several others gave generously of their time and energy. Foremost among them is Col J. R. Reid, USAF, retired. His mentorship has continued since first spotting the Blue Tail patch on my shoulder when I was a young lieutenant calling on the daughter of his German neighbor (my future wife) over a decade ago. I am a better officer and man because of it.