RISK IN AMERICAN FOREIGN MILITARY INTERVENTIONS A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy BY CHRISTOPHER J. BOLAN, M.A WASHINGTON, D.C. JUNE 1, 2009 COPYRIGHT 2009 BY CHRISTOPHER J. BOLAN ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii RISK IN AMERICAN FOREIGN MILITARY INTERVENTIONS CHRISTOPHER J. BOLAN M.A. THESIS ADVISOR: ANDREW BENNETT, PH.D. ABSTRACT What factors most heavily influence the risk perceptions of seniorAmerican leaders as they consider the use of military force? This study employs qualitative research methods and process tracing to probe the history of multiple American military interventions into Afghanistan and Iraq for insights into the changing risk perceptions of presidents and their senior advisors as they contemplate military action. This research project examines the roles played by the global distribution of power, the nature of the threat as measured by balance-of-power and balance-of-threat considerations, the policymaker’s strategic decision-making domain, and cognitive heuristics. The study charts the impact of these various factors on the perceptions of the political, policy, military, and economic risks associated with American presidential decisions to initiate, sustain, and terminate military interventions overseas. The specific cases considered include President Carter’s decision to avoid military intervention in response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, President George W. Bush’s decision to initiate Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan in 2001, President George H.W. Bush’s decision making to both initiate iii and terminate Operation Desert Storm in response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August of 1990, and President George W. Bush’s decision to order Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 and his subsequent decision to surge additional troops into Baghdad in 2007. In particular, these cases demonstrate the influential roles played by balance- of-threat considerations and the cognitive heuristics of representativeness, availability, and anchoring in presidential decision making. iv Contents Chapter 1: International Relations Theory and Risk .................................................12 The Research Questions: .....................................................................................13 Conceptualizing Foreign Military Intervention ..................................................14 Risk Within a Rational Choice Framework ........................................................19 Risk: As Viewed by Foreign Policy Practitioners ..............................................23 A Sociological Perspective of Risk .....................................................................26 Risk Viewed Through A Psychological Prism ....................................................29 Heuristics and Biases in Individual Decision making ........................................33 Other Components of Risk: ................................................................................36 Time horizons .............................................................................................36 Perceived vs. real risks...............................................................................37 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................39 Chapter 2: Case Selection and Methodology ............................................................41 Case Structure & Focus ......................................................................................45 Differentiating and Operationalizing the Dependent Variable: ...........................46 Political Risk ..............................................................................................49 Policy Risk .................................................................................................52 Economic Risk ............................................................................................54 Military Risk ...............................................................................................56 Individual Risk Sensitivities .......................................................................58 Operationalizing the Independent Variables: ......................................................60 International Structure ...............................................................................60 Nature of the Threat ............................................................................................61 v Balance-of-power .......................................................................................61 Balance-of-threat ......................................................................................63 Reference Point and Cognitive Heuristics as Independent Variables .................64 The Reference Point in Prospect Theory....................................................66 Representative Heuristic ............................................................................67 Availability Heuristic .................................................................................69 Anchoring Heuristic ...................................................................................71 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................72 Chapter 3: President Carter and the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 ..........74 Background to the crisis ......................................................................................74 International Power Structure .............................................................................77 Nature of the threat .............................................................................................78 Balance-of-threat .......................................................................................78 Balance-of-power .......................................................................................80 Domain ................................................................................................................82 Cognitive Heuristics ............................................................................................87 Representativeness .....................................................................................87 Availability .................................................................................................90 Anchoring ...................................................................................................93 Perception of Risk in President Carter’s Decision Making ................................96 Military Risks .............................................................................................98 Political Risks ..........................................................................................104 Economic Risks ........................................................................................108 Policy Risks ..............................................................................................112 Conclusion ........................................................................................................114 vi Chapter 4: President George W. Bush and Afghanistan: Operation Enduring Freedom (2001) .......................................................................................117 Background to the Crisis ...................................................................................117 International Power Structure ...........................................................................119 Nature of the Threat ..........................................................................................123 Balance-of-power .....................................................................................125 Balance-of-threat .....................................................................................126 Domain ..............................................................................................................129 Cognitive Heuristics: ........................................................................................134 Representativeness ...................................................................................134 Availability ...............................................................................................137 Anchoring ................................................................................................140 Perceptions of Risk ...........................................................................................143 Political Risks ..........................................................................................143 Military Risks ...........................................................................................148 Economic Risks ........................................................................................150 Policy Risks ..............................................................................................153 Conclusion ........................................................................................................157 Chapter 5: President George H.W. Bush and Iraq: Desert Storm (1991) ...............162 Background to Crisis .........................................................................................162 International Power Structure ...........................................................................165