ECOLOGICAL CHANGE IN TANZANIAN MONTANE RAINFORESTS: FROM SPECIES TO LANDSCAPE By JACLYN MARIE HALL A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2009 1 © 2009 Jaclyn M. Hall 2 To the educators that have had such an important influence in my life, and in the lives of all of us 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would not have come to the University of Florida had it not been for Dr. Michael Binford and I do not know how I would have finished if it weren’t for my dedicated and gifted advisor, Jane Southworth. I am also grateful for my other accomplished committee members: Tim Fik, Walter Judd, and Tom Gillespie. I had the pleasure and good fortune to build relationships with some exceptional scientists that have become valuable collaborators, most important of whom are Roy Gereau from the Missouri Botanical Gardens, Neil Burgess from WWF and the University of Cambridge, Nike Doggart from Tanzanian Forest Conservation Group, Jon Lovett from the University of York, and Moses Mwangoka of Tanzanian Forest Conservation Group. Special thanks are given to Nike Doggart for valuable advice over the last five years. I am thankful for the support I have received from the University of Florida, American Association of University Women, McQuown Foundation, and the African Studies Center and the University of Florida. Throughout my time in the graduate program I received assistance and support of all kinds, financial, logistical, and emotional, from the faculty of the Department of Geography, which is the most productive department in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences thanks to the hard work, long hours, and true heartfelt dedication given toward departmental improvement by its chair, Dr. Peter R. Waylen. The data collection that led to this research was funded by Fulbright, Conservation International and the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund and NSF Working Forests in the Tropics, University of Florida. The project was organized with logistical support from Tanzanian Forest Conservation Group and WWF Tanzania, and Moses Mwangoka’s knowledge of botany, experience in the field, and superior work ethic contributed greatly to success of the data collection. 4 I thank Sokoine University of Agriculture, the University of Dar es Salaam, the Critical Ecosystems Partnership Fund, Conservation International, United Nations Development Program Global Environmental Fund, York Institute for Tropical Ecosystem Dynamics (KITE), and A. Balmford (University of Cambridge) for constructive suggestions. I also thank Roy Gereau for thoughtful and detailed input to all chapters, and The Missouri Botanical Garden for developing the TROPICOS online database, accessible from www.tropicos.org, which made this dissertation possible. In addition, I am grateful to two anonymous reviewers who provided valuable comments to parts of this manuscript. I will forever view as family my fellow graduate students who went through this long process with me: Jamie Waggoner, Tracy Van Holt, Amy Daniels, Alisa Coffin, Joel Harter, Miriam Wyman, Matt Marsik, Forrest Stevens, Keith Yearwood, Sanchi Adhikari, and Brian Condon. I also recognized the entire LEUCI crew, a constantly changing assemblage of dedicated students working in research sites across the globe whose talents combine to form one of the most productive research associations on campus. I am grateful for all the support and laughs I have had thanks to the many friends I made in Gainesville. I miss and will always remember the laughs had with Kristy Capobianco, Nick Campiz, Andrea Wolf, Renee Bullock, Amy Panikowski, Erin Bunting, and Ania Szyniszewska. My friends from home have been very patient during these many years of my being a student and finishing “that paper.” I owe several dinners and drinks to Carey Schacht, Raina Strampello, Karen Karvazy, Libby Zeitler, Jen Katzban, Jen Bryant, and Josh and Emily House. Educators that have had major influences on my life: Mr. Jay Feliciani, my physics and environmental science teacher at Land O’ Lakes High School, harnessed my natural inquisitiveness and compelled me to want to be a scientist. Brian Kermath, my first physical 5 geography teacher and the reason I chose geography as a major, is the first person to take me to a rural tropical landscape, the Rio Negro of the Amazon basin; a trip which changed my life. Dr. Bruce Bradford, the Geography chair at Stetson University, not only taught me confidence as a student and researcher, but gave me my first experience in teaching in front of a class room. Dr. Robert Brinkman from the University of South Florida taught me that soils rock! and was the first to encourage me to pursue a doctoral degree. Dr. Tom Gillespie enlightened me to issues in conservation and biogeography and helped me acquire my affection for rare and endangered species. Dr. Walter Judd, the most amazing tropical botanist, not slowed by heat, mosquitoes or biting ants, gave me my fascination with the incredible diversity of the world’s plants. Dr. Jane Southworth, one of the best remote sensors of the environment, a gifted teacher, and a great advocate for students, taught me how to be a researcher and to have pride in being a Geographer. Above all, I thank my family, including my parents, Drs. Marilyn and Bruce Hall who have not only encouraged and supported me through this long and trying experience, but have been understanding of the challenges that graduate students face, and willingly approved of their only daughter spending years in the snake and killer bee infested forests of East Africa in the pursuit of a degree in Geography. I also owe a great deal of gratitude to my brother, Bruce Hall, Jr., who has dedicated his career to healing the injured, but whose most therapeutic gift is his ability to make people laugh. 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF TABLES................................................................................................................................ 9 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................ 10 ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................ 11 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................... 14 Ecological Services and Agroforests ......................................................................................... 18 Satellite Remote Sensing of Forests........................................................................................... 20 Research Objectives .................................................................................................................... 21 2 CONSERVATION IMPLICATIONS OF DEFORESTATION ACROSS AN ELEVATIONAL GRADIENT IN THE EASTERN ARC MOUNTAINS, TANZANIA ..... 23 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 23 Methods ....................................................................................................................................... 26 Study Area ............................................................................................................................ 26 1) Forest Cover .................................................................................................................... 28 Paleoecological prediction ........................................................................................... 28 1955s ............................................................................................................................. 28 1975 and 2000 .............................................................................................................. 29 2) Forest Cover at different elevations ............................................................................... 30 3) Distributional Data on Endemic Trees ........................................................................... 30 5) Threat Status of Endemic Trees ..................................................................................... 32 6) Analyses ........................................................................................................................... 32 Results .......................................................................................................................................... 35 Elevational Distribution of Forest Loss.............................................................................. 35 Deforestation by Mountain Block. ..................................................................................... 36 Reassessment of the Threat Status for Endemic Trees...................................................... 37 Discussion .................................................................................................................................... 39 Deforestation Patterns Within the Eastern Arc .................................................................. 40 Conservation Relevance ...................................................................................................... 44 3 FLORISTIC COMPARISON OF PROTECTED AND CARDAMOM AGROFORESTS