Evaluation of the Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) Project Portfolio In Kyrgyzstan Evaluation Report Final 31 August 2017 Evaluation Team: • Dr. Terrence Jantzi (Team Leader) • Fernanda Faria (Peacebuilding Specialist) • Anara Alymkulova (National Context Specialist) TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................... iii 2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 2.1 Country Context ............................................................................................................ 1 2.2 PBF Engagement in the Kyrgyz Republic .................................................................... 2 2.2.1 PBF Overview ............................................................................................................................ 2 2.2.2 Initial Response: 2010-2013 .................................................................................................... 2 2.3 PPP Implementation: 2013-2016 ................................................................................ 3 2.3.1 The Peacebuilding Needs and Priorities Assessment ............................................................. 3 2.3.2 PPP Overview ............................................................................................................................ 5 2.3.3 PPP Theory of Change .............................................................................................................. 5 2.3.4 PPP Supported Project Operationalization ............................................................................ 6 3 Evaluation Features ..................................................................................... 8 3.1 Evaluation Scope ......................................................................................................... 8 3.1.1 Evaluation Scope and Key Questions ...................................................................................... 8 3.1.2 Additional Considerations ....................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Evaluation Methodology ............................................................................................. 11 3.3 Evaluation Limitations ............................................................................................... 13 4 Evaluation Findings .................................................................................... 14 4.1 Impact – Political and Strategic Contributions .......................................................... 14 4.1.1 Outcome 1: Rule of Law .......................................................................................................... 14 4.1.2 Outcome 2: Local Self-Government Capacity ....................................................................... 17 4.1.3 Outcome 3: Common Civic Identity ...................................................................................... 20 4.2 PPP Structure and Management Processes ............................................................... 23 4.2.1 The PPP Development Process ............................................................................................... 23 4.2.2 PPP Coordination and Oversight .......................................................................................... 25 4.2.3 PPP Projects and Site Selection .............................................................................................. 28 4.2.4 Project Theory of Change Alignment with PPP ToCs .......................................................... 28 4.2.5 PPP Project Implementation and Efficiency ......................................................................... 30 4.2.6 PBF Performance, Catalytic Effects and Indirect Impacts ................................................. 34 4.2.7 Elements for Future Consideration ....................................................................................... 36 4.3 Sustainability, Gaps, and Future Directions ............................................................. 38 4.3.1 Sustainability .......................................................................................................................... 38 4.3.2 Peacebuilding Gaps and Future Directions .......................................................................... 39 5 Conclusions ................................................................................................ 41 5.1 Evaluation Dimensions............................................................................................... 41 5.2 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 42 5.2.1 Management and Coordination Conclusions ....................................................................... 42 5.2.2 Programming Conclusions .................................................................................................... 43 5.2.3 PVE Considerations ................................................................................................................ 44 6 Recommendations ..................................................................................... 45 6.1 Coordination and Management Recommendations ................................................. 45 6.2 Future PRF Focused Recommendations ................................................................... 45 6.3 Sustainability Recommendations .............................................................................. 45 7 Annexes ..................................................................................................... 47 7.1 Annex 1: Terms of Reference ..................................................................................... 47 7.2 Annex 2: Municipalities and Project Distribution..................................................... 58 7.3 Annex 3: PPP and Individual Project Results Frameworks and Summaries ............ 60 7.3.1 PPP Results Framework ......................................................................................................... 60 7.3.2 PPP Catalytic Effects and Indirect Impacts .......................................................................... 61 7.3.3 Outcome 1: Rule of Law .......................................................................................................... 64 7.3.4 Outcome 2: Local Capacity Building...................................................................................... 71 7.3.5 Outcome 3: Common Civic Identity ...................................................................................... 75 7.4 Annex 4: Evaluation Matrix....................................................................................... 80 7.5 Annex 5: Evaluation Team Mission Schedule ........................................................... 86 7.6 Annex 6: List of Persons Interviewed ........................................................................ 88 7.7 Annex 7: Case Study Demographic Summaries ........................................................ 94 i 7.7.1 Kulundu Municipality............................................................................................................. 94 7.7.2 Shark Municipality ................................................................................................................. 94 7.7.3 Suzak Municipality ................................................................................................................. 96 7.8 Annex 8: Project by Project ToC Analysis ................................................................. 98 7.9 Annex 9: Documents Reviewed ............................................................................... 104 7.10 Annex 10: Data Collection Tools ............................................................................. 106 7.11 Annex 11: List of Acronyms ...................................................................................... 135 List of Tables Table 1: Key Priority Areas and Funding Allocations ................................................................ 5 Table 2: PPP Projects by Outcome and RUNO .......................................................................... 7 Table 3: Target and Control Municipalities in PPP Endline Study ............................................ 9 Table 4: Municipality Case Studies and Province and Districts visited .................................... 12 Table 5: Selected Project Level Indicators Outcome 1 – Rule of Law ....................................... 15 Table 6: PPP Endline Outcome 1 Indicators ............................................................................. 15 Table 7: Selected Project Level Indicators Outcome 2 –LSG Capacity ..................................... 17 Table 8: Selected PPP Endline Outcome 2 Indicators ..............................................................18 Table 9: Selected Project Level Indicators Outcome 3 – Civic Identity .................................... 21 Table 10: PPP Endline Outcome 3 Indicators ........................................................................... 21 Table 11: ToC Alignment from PPP to Activities by Project ..................................................... 29 Table 12: Project Expenditure Rates (Ordered by size of project) ............................................ 31 Table 13: Evaluation Summary by Dimension .......................................................................... 41 List of Figures