Potential impacts of bioenergy developments on habitats and species protected under the Birds and Habitats Directives ANNEX REPORT – EXTENDED ANALYSIS – REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS OF BIOENERGY DEVELOPMENTS ON HABITATS AND SPECIES PROTECTED UNDER THE BIRDS AND HABITATS DIRECTIVES September 2020 GETTING IN TOUCH WITH THE EU In person All over the European Union there are hundreds of Europe Direct information centres. You can find the address of the centre nearest you at: https://europa.eu/european-union/contact_en On the phone or by email Europe Direct is a service that answers your questions about the European Union. 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Prepared by: – Catherine Bowyer, Graham Tucker, Evelyn Underwood, Gustavo Becerra Reviewers – Ben Allen, Johan Lammerant Citation: Bowyer, C, Tucker, G, Underwood, E and Becerra, G (2020) Potential impacts of bioenergy developments on habitats and species protected under the Birds and Habitats Directives: Annex report - extended analysis - review and analysis of the potential direct and indirect impacts of bioenergy developments on habitats and species protected under the Birds and Habitats Directives. Annex to Final report under EC Contract ENV.D.3/SER/2017/0002: “Reviewing and mitigating the impacts of renewable energy developments on habitats and species protected under the Birds and Habitats Directives”, Institute for European Environmental Policy, Arcadis, BirdLife International, NIRAS, Stella Consulting, Ecosystems Ltd, Brussels. EC Contract ENV.D.3/SER/2017/0002 Project: “Reviewing and mitigating the impacts of renewable energy developments on habitats and species protected under the Birds and Habitats Directives” Potential impacts of bioenergy developments on habitats and species protected under the Birds and Habitats Directives ANNEX REPORT – EXTENDED ANALYSIS – REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS OF BIOENERGY DEVELOPMENTS ON HABITATS AND SPECIES PROTECTED UNDER THE BIRDS AND HABITATS DIRECTIVES ANNEX REPORT – EXTENDED ANALYSIS - REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS OF BIOENERGY DEVELOPMENTS ON HABITATS AND SPECIES PROTECTED UNDER THE BIRDS AND HABITATS DIRECTIVES 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Scope and aims of the analysis .......................................................................................... 6 1.2 Assessment steps ............................................................................................................... 8 2 Description and quantification of current bioenergy feedstock production and projections of bioenergy feedstock production in the EU to 2030 and 2050 ..................... 10 2.1 EU Policy Context – Driving Bioenergy Demand in the EU to 2020, 2030 and 2050 ....... 10 2.2 Estimating the scale of future biomass demand and potential impacts ......................... 12 2.2.1 Land use implications associated with future bioenergy demand .......................... 13 2.2.2 Looking to 2050 ........................................................................................................ 14 2.3 Assessing existing and anticipated future demand for biomass feedstocks ................... 15 2.3.1 Bioenergy from conventional food crops ................................................................. 15 2.3.2 Agricultural residues from crops .............................................................................. 26 2.3.3 Energy crops, focusing on novel crops and non-food crops ..................................... 28 2.3.4 Biomass from primary wood production ................................................................. 30 2.4 Summary and synthesis of evidence regarding bioenergy feedstock production in the EU 45 2.4.1 Summary of trends and key messages of relevance to protection of habitats and species under the Habitats and Birds Directives ...................................................................... 45 3 Assessment of the sensitivity of EU protected habitats and species to bioenergy feedstock production ..................................................................................................... 65 3.1 Methodology and evidence sources ................................................................................ 65 3.2 Biodiversity impacts of bioenergy from conventional food crops – maize, oilseed rape, cereals, grass ............................................................................................................................ 70 3.2.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 70 3.2.2 Conversion of grassland, fallow or other habitats to cropland ............................... 70 3.2.3 Intensification of grassland management ............................................................... 86 3.2.4 Crop change on existing arable land and associated arable intensification ........... 89 3.2.5 Removal of residues from croplands ........................................................................ 94 3.2.6 Summary of evidence of sensitivity of EU protected habitats and species to the production of biofuel and biogas feedstocks ........................................................................... 95 3 3.3 Bioenergy from non-food crops or other feedstocks on agricultural land or other open land 97 3.3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 97 3.3.2 Conversion of arable cropland to Miscanthus or Reed Canary Grass (Phalaris arundinacea) or SRC ................................................................................................................. 97 3.3.3 Conversion of grassland or other semi-natural habitat to Miscanthus or Reed Canary Grass (Phalaris arundinacea) or SRC ...................................................................................... 100 3.3.4 Afforestation of grassland or other semi-natural habitat ..................................... 102 3.3.5 Afforestation of arable cropland............................................................................ 107 3.3.6 Removal of residues from semi-natural habitats .................................................. 109 3.3.7 Summary of evidence of sensitivity of EU protected habitats and species to the production of bioenergy crops ............................................................................................... 110 3.4 Impact of removal of forest biomass on biodiversity .................................................... 112 3.4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 112 3.4.2 Selective logging of extensively managed forests ................................................. 115 3.4.3 Thinning of small and intermediate sized successional trees ................................ 118 3.4.4 Removal of dead and dying trees and dead wood ................................................ 124 3.4.5 Effects of clear cutting ........................................................................................... 129 3.4.6 Stump removal and whole-tree harvesting ........................................................... 134 3.4.7 Tree planting and use of pesticides and fertilisers ................................................. 135 3.4.8 Plantation forestry with dominance of non-native or non site typical tree species 137 3.4.9 Effects of the construction of forest roads and tracks ........................................... 140 3.4.10 Summary of evidence of sensitivity of EU protected habitats and species to the use of forest biomass .................................................................................................................... 142 4 The assessment of vulnerability of EU protected habitats and species to pressures from bioenergy production ................................................................................................... 145 4.1 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 145 4.1.1 Screening of species and habitats .........................................................................