SUCCESSFUL INTELLIGENCE: PROPINQUITY, FRATERNITY, AND THE PRESIDENT-DCI RELATIONSHIP by LT COL JAMES B. BORDERS, USAF (Under the Direction of Loch K. Johnson) ABSTRACT Intelligence support is crucial to the development of good foreign policy. Considerable research within the field of intelligence studies focuses on intelligence processes, but this dissertation focuses on the interaction between the president and his chief intelligence advisor. The overlap of the president’s decision cycle and the intelligence cycle is the point where the relationship between these two individuals can have a significant effect upon the level of intelligence success they can experience. I hypothesize that the likelihood of intelligence success is improved when the president and chief of intelligence have a positive relationship, meet frequently, and the intelligence chief does not engage in the active advocacy of policy options. These hypotheses are tested in four case studies that review the interaction between a president and his chief of intelligence. I conclude that the relationship between these two individuals can explain the degree of intelligence success achieved by the pairing. INDEX WORDS: Intelligence, President, U. S. Foreign Policy, Central Intelligence Agency SUCCESSFUL INTELLIGENCE: PROPINQUITY, FRATERNITY, AND THE PRESIDENT-DCI RELATIONSHIP by LT COL JAMES B. BORDERS, USAF B.A., The Pennsylvania State University, 1992 M.S., The Joint Military Intelligence College, 1999 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY ATHENS, GEORGIA 2011 © 2011 Lt Col James B. Borders, USAF All Rights Reserved SUCCESSFUL INTELLIGENCE: PROPINQUITY, FRATERNITY, AND THE PRESIDENT-DCI RELATIONSHIP by LT COL JAMES B. BORDERS, USAF Major Professor: Loch K. Johnson Committee: Jeffrey Berejikian Fred Manget Brock Tessman Electronic Version Approved: Maureen Grasso Dean of the Graduate School The University of Georgia May 2011 DEDICATION A friend loves at all times, And a brother is born for adversity. (Proverbs 17:17). This is dedicated to my dear friends, my loving family, and the lady who is both, my loving wife, Martha. As pleased as I was to find that I was totally prepared for ninety percent of this program, I was blessed beyond measure by the encouragement provided by friends and family members and the faith they displayed in my ability to complete this task. My parents and my wife were always sound counsel and were instrumental in the editing process of this document, and my wife and children, Elizabeth, Andrew, and John, gave their constant love and support. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My entrance into this program occurred only with the faith and trust placed in me by Col. Douglas Murray, USAF and Col. Cheryl Kearny, USAF. Both of these individuals were instrumental in ensuring that I had this incredible opportunity and for that I am eternally grateful. Additionally, my ability to accomplish my goals here at the University of Georgia not have been possible without the help of all the dedicated faculty and staff at the School for Public and International Affairs. Particular thanks are due to Professor Loch Johnson, who encouraged and mentored me through this process and never doubted my ability to complete it. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................v LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................ix LIST OF TABLES.....................................................................................................................xi GLOSSARY...... .......................................................................................................................xii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................1 1.1 Statement of the Puzzle..................................................................................1 1.2 Literature Review.........................................................................................14 1.3 Plan of Dissertation......................................................................................20 2 ROLE OF INTELLIGENCE IN GRAND STRATEGY...........................................27 2.1 Employment of Intelligence by Clausewitz, Jomini and Sun Tzu..................28 2.2 Debate of the Role of the Intelligence Community by Kent and Kendall ......42 2.3 Five Principles of Intelligence in Grand Strategy..........................................45 2.4 Application of the Principles of Intelligence in Grand Strategy ....................55 3 METHODOLOGY AND HYPOTHESES ...............................................................66 3.1 Selection and Ordering of Case Studies........................................................66 3.2 The Intelligence Process as a Guide .............................................................73 3.3 The Operational Code ..................................................................................75 3.4 Categorizing the President/DCI Relationship ...............................................86 vi 3.5 Grading Intelligence Success........................................................................91 3.6 Evaluating the Hypotheses ...........................................................................93 4 CASE STUDY: PRESIDENT CARTER AND DCI TURNER ...............................96 4.1 President James E. Carter (39th President, 1977-1981)..................................97 4.2 DCI Stanfield Turner (12th DCI, 1977-1981).............................................. 118 4.3 Assessment of the Carter/Turner Dyad....................................................... 139 5 CASE STUDY: PRESIDENT REAGAN AND DCI CASEY ............................... 153 5.1 President Ronald W. Reagan (40th President, 1981-1989)........................... 156 5.2 DCI William J. Casey (13th DCI, 1981-1987)............................................. 187 5.3 Assessment of the Reagan/Casey Dyad ...................................................... 217 6 CASE STUDY: PRESIDENT KENNEDY AND DCI McCONE.......................... 230 6.1 President John F. Kennedy (35th President, 1961-1963).............................. 231 6.2 DCI John A. McCone (6th DCI, 1961-1965)............................................... 258 6.3 Assessment of the Kennedy/McCone Dyad................................................ 271 7 CASE STUDY: PRESIDENT BUSH AND DCI TENET ..................................... 286 7.1 President George W. Bush (43rd President, 2000-2009).............................. 289 7.2 DCI George J. Tenet (18th DCI, 1997-2004)............................................... 321 7.3 Assessment of the Bush/Tenet Dyad .......................................................... 346 8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION....................................................................... 362 8.1 Comparison of the Dyads........................................................................... 363 8.2 Reviewing the Results................................................................................ 364 8.3 Applying the Hypotheses ........................................................................... 369 8.4 Future Areas for Research.......................................................................... 378 vii 8.5 Conclusion................................................................................................. 381 WORKS CITED AND WORKS CONSULTED..................................................................... 384 APPENDICES A Directors of Central Intelligence Ordered by Duration ........................................... 409 B President/DCI (and DNI) Dyads Ordered by Duration ........................................... 410 C John Boyd’s Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) Loop....................................... 411 D National Security Action Memorandum Number 135 ............................................ 412 E Humane treatment of al Qaeda and Taliban Detainees ........................................... 413 F The CIA Counterterrorism Center.......................................................................... 415 viii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1.1: The Intelligence Process............................................................................................3 Figure 1.2: Integration of the OODA Loop and the Intelligence Process......................................8 Figure 1.3: Lowenthal’s Semi-Permeable Wall...........................................................................17 Figure 1.4: Flow Diagram of this Dissertation...........................................................................21 Figure 2.1: Information Focused Through the Lenses of Intelligence ........................................30 Figure 2.2: Intelligence Pyramid ...............................................................................................36 Figure 3.1: The Department of Defense Intelligence Process.....................................................74 Figure 3.2: President-DCI Relationship Matrix .........................................................................87 Figure 3.3: Chain Model of Intelligence Success.......................................................................94 Figure 4.1: An Intelligence Operational Code for President Jimmy Carter............................... 117 Figure