Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council Project Partners IBM Corporation Paul Scherrer Institute Global Transport Scenarios 2050 Officers of the World Energy Council Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council Pierre Gadonneix Chair Copyright © 2011 World Energy Council Abubakar Sambo Vice Chair, Africa All rights reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or Liu Tie’nan reproduced as long as the following citation is included on each Vice Chair, Asia copy or transmission: ‘Used by permission of the World Energy Council, London, www.worldenergy.org’ Arup Roy Choudhury Vice Chair, Asia Pacific & South Asia Published 2011 by: Johannes Teyssen World Energy Council Vice Chair, Europe Regency House 1-4 Warwick Street London W1B 5LT United Kingdom José Antonio Vargas Lleras Vice Chair, Latin America/Caribbean ISBN: 978-0-946121-14-4 Abbas Ali Naqi Vice Chair, Special Responsibility for Middle East & Gulf States Kevin Meyers Vice Chair, North America Heon Cheol Shin Vice Chair, Daegu Congress 2013 Marie-José Nadeau Chair, Communications & Outreach Committee Graham Ward, CBE Chair, Finance Committee Michael Morris Chair, Programme Committee Brian Statham Chair, Studies Committee Christoph Frei Secretary General Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council 1 Knowledge Network Members Walter Böhme, Austria Alexandru Sandulescu, Romania Pietro Erber, Brazil Ionut Purica, Romania Renata Szczerbacki, Brazil Alison von Ketelhodt, South Africa Lyudmil Kostadinov, Bulgaria Heloise Nel, South Africa Terry Kimmel, Canada Jaime Gutiérrez, Spain Karim Kassam, Canada Almudena Rosas, Spain Lesme Corredor Martinez, Colombia Gunnar Bengtsson, Sweden José Maboya Nzalingo, Congo (DR) Jochen Kreusel, Switzerland Hans Larsen, Denmark Abdelhamid Khalfallah, Tunisia Georges Bouchard, France Sarper Saragöglu, Turkey Igor Czerny, France Martin Haigh, United Kingdom Alain Le Duigou France Helen El-Mallakh, United States Pierre Sigonney, France Alain Bucaille, France Project Partner – Paul Scherrer Institute Jean Eudes Moncomble , France Simon Vinot, France Philipp Dietrich, Switzerland Enno Harks, Germany Hal Turton, Switzerland Matthias Kirner, Germany Martin Densing, Switzerland Kerstin Mayr, Germany Alexander Stöhr , Germany Christian Hahn, Germany Project Partner – IBM Corporation Ved Mitra, India Anil Bakshi, India Irina Bychkova, United Kingdom Philip Thomas, India Clay Luthy, United States Sundar Iyer, United Kingdom Prakash Sharma, India Antonio De Bellis, Italy Steve Edwards, United Kingdom Davide Moroni, Italy Michael Valocchi, United States Andrea Zara, Italy Federico Caleno, Italy Project Team Kaoru Horie, Japan Junhaeng Jo, Korea (Republic) Christoph Frei, WEC, Secretary General Rodolfo Lacy, Mexico Karl Rose, WEC, Director Policy and Scenarios Pinehas Mutota , Namibia Ayed Al-Qahtani, WEC, Senior Project Manager Barry Blackett, New Zealand Brian Statham, South Africa Eli Bala, Nigeria Suduk Kim, Korea (Republic) Mohammed Bello, Nigeria Gabriela Prata Dias, Portugal Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council 2 Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council 3 Content Content 3 4.2 Cooperation-Integration 29 Executive Summary 4 5. Transport Scenarios 31 1. Introduction 7 5.1 Freeway 31 1.1 Background 7 5.2 Tollway 32 1.2 Study Goals 7 6. Regional Considerations 34 1.3 Study Approach 8 6.1 Africa and the Middle East 34 2. Overview of Global Transport Sector 9 6.2 Asia 36 3. Driving Forces 12 6.3 Europe and Russia 41 3.1 Economic Growth 12 6.4 North America 43 3.2 Demographic Trends 13 6.5 Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) 46 3.3 Urbanization and Megacities 15 7. Modelling and Quantification 49 3.4 Geopolitics 17 7.1 Model Overview 49 3.5 Global Oil Reserve and Supply 18 7.2 Modelling Results 53 3.6 Environmental and Health Concerns 19 7.3 Results for Freeway 53 3.7 Policies and Regulations 19 7.4 Results for Tollway 56 3.8 Lifestyle Changes 21 7.5 Scenario Comparisons on a Global Level 60 3.9 Alternative Fuels 22 8. Conclusions 65 3.10 Fuel Efficiencies 25 Glossary 68 3.11 Innovations 26 Figures and Tables 69 3.12 Summary 28 Appendices 71 4. Critical Uncertainties 29 4.1 Government Regulation 29 Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council 4 Executive Summary Over the next four decades, the global transportation Now is the time for strong leadership at both sector will face unprecedented challenges related government and enterprise levels if the transport to demographics, urbanization, pressure to sector is to make a positive contribution towards minimize and dislocate emissions outside urban the well-being of future generations. centres, congestion of aging transport infrastructure and growth in fuel demand. These Regional inputs on transport policies, existing and challenges will all be compounded by uncertainties potential developments in both fuels and emerging from government intervention and technologies, in addition to major driving forces and regulation. Regional and global cooperation, critical uncertainties were all examined and unstable global economic situations, and potential combined into two distinct transport scenarios technological breakthroughs will all have a “Freeway” and “Tollway.” The main difference significant impact. In light of these challenges and between these two scenarios is the degree and the levels of uncertainty, the World Energy Council style of government intervention in regulating future (WEC) decided to re-examine the future of the transport markets. transport and mobility sector by building Global Transport Scenarios to 2050. These scenarios will The “Freeway” scenario envisages a world describe potential developments in transport fuels, where pure market forces prevail to create a technologies, and mobility systems over the course climate for open global competition. of the next forty years. Undoubtedly, the evolution of the transport world between 2010 and 2050 will The “Tollway” scenario describes a more offer many challenges, the biggest of which is regulated world where governments decide to providing sustainable transport for the seven to intervene in markets to promote technology nine billion people at the lowest social cost solutions and infrastructure development that possible. These scenarios show that government put common interests at the forefront. policies will play a critical role in determining the most likely pathway into the future. The Freeway and Tollway scenarios describe the extreme ends of the potential futures envelope. The World Energy Council believes that The reality will inevitably be between these two constructive dialogue between national and local scenarios with regional differences playing a major policy makers, manufacturers, consumers and role. producers will be essential if we are to meet these challenges. Only with discovery, promotion and In quantifying these two scenarios, we noted that development of new energy resources, matched to by 2050: innovation and improvements in current technologies, catalysed by optimally formulated Total fuel demand in all transport modes will policies can we hope to ensure a more sustainable increase by 30% (Tollway) to 82% (Freeway) transport future for current and future generations. above the 2010 levels. The growth in fuel Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council 5 demand will be driven mainly by trucks, The total number of cars in the world is also buses, trains, ships, and airplanes. expected to increase 2.2 times (Tollway) to 2.6 times (Freeway), mainly in the developing Transport sector fuel mix will still depend world, where the number of cars will increase heavily on gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and jet by 430% (Tollway) to 557% (Freeway) while fuel, as they all will still constitute the bulk of the developed countries will see an increase transport market fuels with 80% (Tollway) to of only 36% (Tollway) to 41% (Freeway). 88% (Freeway) in 2050. At the end of the scenario period (2050) we Demand for these major fuels will increase expect conventional gasoline and diesel by 10% (Tollway) to 68% (Freeway) over the internal combustion engines (ICEs) to have a scenario period. market share between 26% (Tollway) and 78% (Freeway). Other drive-train technologies Demand for diesel and fuel oil will grow by will make up the rest with liquid hybrid, plug- 46% (Tollway) to 200% (Freeway). ins, and electric vehicles leading in Tollway, while liquid hybrids, plug-ins and gas vehicles Demand for jet fuel will grow by 200% lead in Freeway. (Tollway) to 300% (Freeway). The scenarios also show significant regional Demand for gasoline is expected to drop by differences, with shale gas being a driver for 16% (Freeway) to 63% (Tollway). natural gas fuelled transport in North America, biofuels with a continued high contribution in Latin Biofuels will also help to satisfy the demand for America, and electric mobility having a particularly transport fuel as their use will increase almost four strong push in Asia/China where the growth of fold in both scenarios. Other fuels including megacities is most dramatic. electricity, hydrogen, and natural gas will increase six to seven fold. In 2010, the CO2 emissions from the transport sector were about 23% of global CO2 emission The additional transport fuel demand will come levels and emissions from cars were about 41% of from the developing countries (especially China total transport emissions. With the higher levels of and India) where demand will grow by 200% transport demand, and depending on the fuel mix: (Tollway)