L'institut de la CAD CDA Institute CDA L'Institut Cahier Vimy Institute de la CAD Vimy Paper ~ 1987 ~ 2017 THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR CANADA Ferry De Kerckhove No. 34 English version Vimy Paper Vol. 34 - 2017: The Strategic Outlook for Canada Print: ISBN 978-1-928082-10-1 PDF: ISBN 978-1-928082-11-8 Version française Cahier Vimy 34 - 2017: Les perspectives stratégique du Canada Print: ISBN 978-1-928082-12-5 PDF: ISBN 978-1-928082-13-2 © Conference of Defence Associations Institute, 2017 THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR CANADA 2017 Strategy and Mission after the Defence Policy Review Advisors Richard Cohen editors Vice-Admiral Drew Robertson (Ret'd) David McDonough, PhD Joel Sokolsky, PhD Elliot Tepper, PhD Col Charles Davies (Ret.) The listing of advisors does not imply concurrence with the authors' findings, rather they were a consultative resource to whom the authors are grateful. ii THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR CANADA 2017 Message from the Chair of the CDA environmentally responsible and the vast ma- & the Chair of the Board, CDA Insti- jority of our audience prefer to download the tute document on whatever modern platform they so choose. We have also found in recent years As Canada celebrates its 150th anniversary and that demand for printed copies has fallen con- all its great accomplishments since Confedera- siderably. tion, we find ourselves in a complex, challeng- Production of the Strategic Outlook is a major ing and potentially perilous time from a se- undertaking and we would like to acknowl- curity and defence perspective. Recent world edge the substantial effort on the part of the events, including ongoing instability in many many people who contributed to the 2017 regions; changes on the North American conti- edition. We are deeply indebted to the seven nent; growing tensions in the Asia Pacific area; authors who contributed to it: Professor Kim and many others suggest that we are going Richard Nossal of Queen’s University; Dr Jim through a tectonic shift in world affairs. Can- Cox (also Brigadier-General [ret’d]); Profes- ada will be challenged to chart a safe course to sor Andrea Charron of Carleton University; the future. Dr Mike Cessford (also Colonel [ret’d]) of the A thoughtful and thorough public discourse Canadian Commercial Corporation; Andrew on the future direction for national security Rasiulis of the Canadian Global Affairs Insti- and defence policies, strategies, plans and pro- tute; Dr Eric Lerhe (also Commodore [ret’d]) grams is therefore needed beyond the Trudeau of Dalhousie University; and Dr Ken Pennie government’s recently completed consultations (Lieutenant-General [ret’d]). We also thank on its Defence Policy Review, as welcome as Dr David McDonough, until recently our Re- that initiative is. As a contribution to this dis- search Manager and Senior Editor, who was course, we are pleased to release Vimy Paper the principal architect, planner, and organizer #34 The Strategic Outlook for Canada 2017. It of this Strategic Outlook. CDA Institute Re- is the sixth in our series of annual examina- search Fellow Chuck Davies and Senior Ana- tions of the global trends impacting Canada’s lyst Matthew Overton completed final editing security and national interests. These papers of this year’s edition. We are very grateful are part of the CDA Institute’s ongoing efforts to Richard Evraire and André Scialom who to inform Canadians and their governments contributed many hours with the translation about Canadian security and defence issues. and proof-reading of the manuscript. Four independent reviewers – Vice-Admiral (ret’d) This year, we have elected to publish the Stra- Drew Robertson, Richard Cohen, Elliot Tepper tegic Outlook in electronic format not only as and Dr Joel Sokolsky – also provided insightful a cost-saving measure, but also because it is CDA INSTITUTE | VIMY PAPER LES PERSPECTIVES STRATÉGIQUES DU CANADA 2017 iii TITLE comments to the contributing writers. Finally, Office Manager Robert Legere was indispens- able in doing the layout and production of the document. The efforts of all these people and many other volunteers were indispensable to getting the CDA Institute Vimy Paper #34 – The 2017 Strategic Outlook for Canada ready for publication. We sincerely hope that you will enjoy reading it and, more importantly, give serious thought to the issues, perspectives, and questions raised. They are important for Canada’s security and worth discussing at every opportunity. Denis Rouleau, Chair of the CDA Daniel Gosselin, Chair of the Board, CDA Institute February 10, 2017 L’INSTITUT DE LA CAD | CAHIER VIMY iv THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR CANADA 2017 FOREWORD have essentially no national dialogue, let alone a consensus, on what capabilities the country will The CDA Institute annually publishes its flag- require to successfully respond – either alone or ship Vimy Paper – The Strategic Outlook for in concert with others. Canada, a broad examination of the current and likely future global trends impacting Canada’s The annual CDA Institute Strategic Outlook for security and national interests. This is aimed Canada does not fill that gap. Rather, it is aimed at encouraging informed public debate about at readers both inside and outside government security and defence issues and, unashamedly, who are interested in the public debate on secu- encouraging the Government of Canada to give rity and defence issues. It seeks to provide in- these critical areas more serious attention. This sights into the global issues, events, and trends year is particularly important given the current that can be expected to affect Canada’s security defence policy review. and defence interests today, tomorrow, and in the longer-term future. By so doing, we hope to The government does a good job of evaluating encourage a more vigorous and better-informed future economic trends and risks. The recent debate. 2016 Update of Long-Term Economic and Fis- cal Projections by the Department of Finance The 2017 Strategic Outlook (Vimy Paper #34) provides a concise, comprehensive, and sober- represents a significant departure from previous ing projection of Canadian demographic, eco- editions. Since 2012, the document has been nomic, and fiscal trends out to the 2050s – and ably written by one or two individuals, notably what it means for public finances over the peri- the CDA Institute’s widely experienced Board od. It is regularly updated and a must-read doc- Members Ferry de Kerckhove and George ument for anyone interested in the challenges Petrolekas, and former CDA Institute member facing Canada in the future. Paul Chapin, with input from various experts. This year, we have sought to offer new perspec- However, the government is significantly less tives by inviting seven distinguished scholars diligent when it comes to security and defence. and practitioners who have studied global secu- Unlike most other “middle powers”, it publish- rity and defence issues for many years to each es no regular assessment of the global security provide their perspectives in specific areas. trends and threats faced by the country, and has no articulated comprehensive strategy for Professor Kim Richard Nossal of the Centre safeguarding itself and its interests. Without a for International and Defence Policy at Queen’s national perspective on what the future chal- University introduces the Strategic Outlook by lenges are likely to be and how we intend to examining the political dynamics around the face them, it is perhaps not surprising that we Canadian government’s approach to security CDA INSTITUTE | VIMY PAPER LES PERSPECTIVES STRATÉGIQUES DU CANADA 2017 v TITLE and defence, including the current defence pol- gues that defending these national interests re- icy review, from the domestic, continental, and quires renewed attention to Canada’s ability to global perspectives. He draws a clear picture contribute to continental defence. This means a of the uncertain and challenging global politi- serious investment in Canada-US defence rela- cal environment facing the government and the tions at the highest levels and a rediscovery of nation, pointing out limitations in the path the the essential art of bilateral diplomacy between government appears to have chosen to navigate the two nations. through it. In Chapter 3, Colonel Dr. Michael Cessford In Chapter 1, Brigadier-General Dr. James Cox (Retired), Middle East Regional Director for (Retired), a Senior Fellow with the Macdon- the Canadian Commercial Corporation and a ald-Laurier Institute and Research Fellow at Research Fellow at the CDA Institute, offers in- the CDA Institute, sets out the strategic context sights into expeditionary operations from the within which the government’s policy responses Mideast and Europe to Africa. He discusses to global challenges and risks need to be devel- the dangers inherent in these operations and oped. He describes the relationship between stresses the need for clear and pragmatic strate- policies, strategies, plans, and priorities – and gic oversight by the Government of Canada. He the importance of following a more disciplined argues that these commitments, though perhaps and rigorous process in developing and imple- motivated by Canadian values, must be linked menting them than Canadian governments typ- to national interests and objectives that justify ically do. He argues that Canada needs a much putting our personnel in harm’s way. deeper and broader defence review than the Chapter 4 looks at NATO and Europe. It was DPR process now underway. written by Andrew Rasiulis, a Research Fellow Chapter 2 was written by Professor Andrea with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute who Charron, Director of Carleton University’s Cen- has 35 years of experience as a defence strategic tre for Security, Intelligence and Defence Stud- analyst, arms control negotiator, policy officer, ies; Adjunct Professor at the Norman Paterson and Director of Military Training and Cooper- School of International Affairs; and Research ation. He has an MA from the Norman Patter- Fellow at the CDA Institute.