THE STRUGGLE FOR POWERU.S.-CHINA RELATIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY Foreword by Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and Condoleezza Rice Preface by Nicholas Burns Edited by Leah Bitounis and Jonathon Price CONTRIBUTORS INCLUDE: Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill, Nicholas Burns, Kurt Campbell, Elizabeth Economy, Joseph P. Federici, Kathleen H. Hicks, Anja Manuel, Shivshankar Menon, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Michael Pillsbury, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Ely Ratner, Condoleezza Rice, David E. Sanger, David Shambaugh, Pavneet Singh, and James B. Steinberg Copyright © 2020 by The Aspen Institute The Aspen Institute 2300 N Street, N.W. Suite 700 Washington, DC 20037 Published in the United States of America in 2020 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America Wye Publication Number: 20/001 Cover design by: Steve Johnson Interior layout by: Sogand Sepassi aspen strategy group Aspen Strategy Group Leadership CHAIR EMERITUS MEMBERS Brent Scowcroft Madeleine K. Albright President Chair The Scowcroft Group, Inc. Albright Stonebridge Group Graham Allison CO-CHAIRS Douglas Dillon Professor of Government Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Harvard Kennedy School University Distinguished Service Zoë Baird Professor Emeritus CEO and President Harvard Kennedy School Markle Foundation Condoleezza Rice Robert D. Blackwill Thomas and Barbara Stephenson Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for Senior Fellow on Public Policy U.S. Foreign Policy Hoover Institution Council on Foreign Relations Stanford University Christian Brose Head of Strategy EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Anduril Industries Nicholas Burns Sylvia Burwell Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of President Diplomacy and International Relations American University Harvard Kennedy School Kurt Campbell DIRECTOR Chairman and CEO The Asia Group, LLC Anja Manuel Principal Ash Carter RiceHadleyGatesManuel LLC Director Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School DEPUTY DIRECTOR James Cartwright Jonathon Price Senior Partner Deputy Director JEC Associates LLC Aspen Strategy Group Eliot Cohen Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies Leah Bitounis Associate Director Richard Cooper Aspen Strategy Group Professor of Economics Harvard University ASPEN INSTITUTE PRESIDENT John Deutch Daniel Porterfield Professor President and CEO MIT The Aspen Institute Tom Donilon Dina Powell McCormick Chairman Managing Director BlackRock Investment Institute Goldman Sachs Diana Farrell Penny Pritzker President & CEO Chairman and Founder JPMorgan Chase Institute PSP Partners Peter Feaver Tom Pritzker Professor Executive Chairman Duke University Hyatt Hotels Corporation Dianne Feinstein Jack Reed United States Senator United States Senator U.S. Senate U.S. Senate Michèle Flournoy Susan Rice Co-Founder and Managing Partner Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow WestExec Advisors School of International Service American University Mike Green David E. Sanger Senior Vice President for Asia National Security Correspondent Center for Strategic and International Studies The New York Times Stephen Hadley Susan Schwab Principal Professor of Public Policy, University of Maryland RiceHadleyGatesManuel LLC Strategic Advisor, Mayer Brown LLP Jane Harman Anne-Marie Slaughter Director, President, and CEO President & CEO Wilson Center New America David Ignatius Jim Steinberg Columnist and Associate Editor University Professor The Washington Post Maxwell School, Syracuse University Nicholas Kristof Dan Sullivan Op-Ed Columnist United States Senator The New York Times U.S. Senate Jessica Mathews Strobe Talbott Distinguished Fellow Distinguished Fellow in Residence Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Brookings Institution David McCormick Frances Townsend CEO EVP,Worldwide Government, Bridgewater Associates Legal and Business Affairs MacAndrews & Forbes, Inc. Sam Nunn Co-Chair Dov Zakheim Nuclear Threat Initiative Senior Fellow CNA Corp. Meghan O’Sullivan Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of Philip Zelikow International Affairs and Director of the Professor Geopolitics of Energy Project University of Virginia Harvard Kennedy School Robert Zoellick William Perry Chairman Professor AllianceBernstein Stanford University Acknowledgements his publication has been realized thanks to many individuals who contributed their time, talent, support, and Texpertise. In early August 2019, the Aspen Strategy Group (ASG) and invited experts came together in Aspen, Colorado to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations. This book is a compilation of the commissioned papers presented during our working sessions. It reflects the lessons learned, options, challenges, and potential policy options for the next phase of U.S.-China relations. We must begin by thanking our authors who so thoughtfully prepared papers to stimulate our summer discussions. Their willingness to share their research, insights, recommendations, and welcome feedback is an important legacy of the founding principles of the ASG. We would also like to express our appreciation for our Aspen Strategy Group members, who give their time every summer to come together in a nonpartisan manner to read, discuss, learn, and contribute solutions to the most pressing national security and foreign policy problems facing America. Many thanks also go to ASG staff members Jonathon Price and Leah Bitounis who spent many hours turning these papers into the latest edition in our policy book series. Gayle Bennett, our long-time editor of ASG publications, also reviews every page of this book to ensure its quality. Steve Johnson and Sogand Sepassi have done a masterful job on layout and design—thank you. Our wonderful Scowcroft Fellows—Tyler Headley, Tobias Brandt, and Katy Henderson—your dedication to this project demonstrates the very bright careers you have in front of you. And thank you to our staff who helped ensure the summer conversations flowed seamlessly: Ciara Campbell, Deb Cunningham, and John Hogan. We are extremely grateful to all the Aspen Strategy Group’s friends and sponsors. Their generosity and steadfast support allow the ASG to continue our long-term efforts to be a trusted and effective venue for nonpartisan dialogue on America’s greatest foreign policy challenges. We are indebted to David M. Rubenstein, The Clermont Foundation, The Markle Foundation, Robert Rosenkranz and Alexandra Munroe, The Stanton Foundation, The Margot & Thomas Pritzker Family Foundation, The Pritzker Traubert Foundation, Robert Abernethy, Leah Joy Zell, The John Anson Kittredge Educational Fund, Lynda and Stewart Resnick, The Asia Group Foundation, Robert Belfer, Gail Engelberg, F. Francis Najafi, and Gordon Segal. Without their support, our conference and this book would not have been possible. Finally, we simply could not do what we do without our superb co-chairs Joe Nye and Condi Rice. Joe, who founded this group over three decades ago, and Condi, who was first brought to this group by Brent Scowcroft, moderate the conversations, ask hard questions, and serve as the very definition of what our public servants should aspire to be—we are grateful for your leadership. As the relationship between the United States and China grows increasingly complicated, it is reassuring to know that such a large community is committed to understanding the history of this relationship and what must be done going forward. The Aspen Strategy Group deems it a privilege to be able to bring together leaders and experts to help drive such positive change. We hope you find the ideas shared in this book to be a substantive contribution towards this aim. Contents Foreword Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and Condoleezza Rice. 5 Preface Nicholas Burns . 7 CHAPTER 1 Ernest May Lecture ............................................................13 U.S.-China Relations at a Crossroad: Can History Guide the Path Forward? James B. Steinberg CHAPTER 2 The Trump Administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy ................................31 Michael Pillsbury CHAPTER 3 Reimagining Engagement ......................................................41 Elizabeth Economy CHAPTER 4 Toward a New China Debate: The Strategic Logic of Blunting China’s Illiberal Order ..............................53 Ely Ratner CHAPTER 5 The Case for Allies: Coordinating a Response to China ..............................61 Shivshankar Menon CHAPTER 6 How Asia Navigates the U.S.-China Rivalry ......................................67 Kurt Campbell CHAPTER 7 The U.S.-China Strategic Competition: Clues from History .........................79 Graham Allison CHAPTER 8 Campaigning through China’s Gray Zone Tactics .................................97 Kathleen H. Hicks and Joseph P. Federici CHAPTER 9 From Primacy to Openness: U.S. Strategic Objectives in Asia . .105 Mira Rapp-Hooper CHAPTER 10 Managing the Fifth Generation: America, China, and the Struggle for Technological Dominance . .113 David E. Sanger CHAPTER 11 Compete, Contest, and Collaborate: How to Win the Technology Race with China......................................123 Anja Manuel and Pavneet Singh CHAPTER 12 The Rise of China .............................................................133 Joseph S. Nye, Jr. CHAPTER 13 Toward a “Smart Competition” Strategy for U.S. China Policy. .141 David Shambaugh CHAPTER 14 U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China: Seventeen Policy Prescriptions . .155 Robert D. Blackwill Foreword 5 Foreword Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Condoleezza Rice Aspen Strategy Group Co-Chairs n the forty years since the United States established diplomatic relations