SDA Discussion Paper Assessing the security implications of Balkan integration Event report and discussion paper SECURITY & DEFENCE AGENDA A Security & Defence Agenda Report produced in collaboration with the Atlantic Council of the United States, the Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung, and the Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy Rapporteur: Stephanie Carnes, Security and Defence Agenda Photos: David Plas Year of publication: 2009 SECURITY & DEFENCE AGENDA Bibliothèque Solvay, Parc Léopold, 137 rue Belliard, B-1040, Brussels, Belgium T: +32 (0)2 737 91 48 F: +32 (0)2 736 32 16 E: [email protected] W: www.securitydefenceagenda.org SECURITY & DEFENCE AGENDA SDA Event Report and Discussion Paper CONTENTS Evening debate programme p. 5 Evening debate report p. 6 Foreword p. 8 Discussion paper p. 11 Franz-Lothar Altmann p. 12 Spyros Economides p. 14 Kenneth Huffman p. 16 Tacan Ildem p. 17 Dimitris Kerides p. 20 Alexander Kitroeff p. 21 Branislav Milinkovic p. 22 Christian Schwarz—Schilling p. 23 Nikolaos Tzifakis p. 25 The SDA thanks the Czech Presidency of the EU for its support in the publication of this text. Disclaimer: the opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the opinions of the SDA or its publication partners, or the official position of the Czech Presidency of the EU. Page 3 SECURITY & DEFENCE AGENDA Security implications of Balkan integration COULD BALKAN NEWCOMERS TO NATO AND THE EU AF- FECT THE SECURITY OF THE WEST? An evening debate organised by the Security & Defence Agenda, the Atlantic Council of the United States, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and the Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy March 2, 2009, Bibliothèque Solvay, Brussels 16:30 Registration 17:00-18:30 Debate 18:30 Cocktail Reception With Croatia on the threshold of EU membership, and along with Albania and Former Yugoslav Repub- lic of Macedonia headed for NATO too, the day when Balkan countries will have an important influence on Western security policies is fast approaching. Although it’s nearly a decade and a half since the Day- ton Accord that brought peace to the region, and ten years since NATO intervened over Kosovo, dan- gerous tensions persist. How great is the risk that old enmities and rivalries between Balkan newcom- ers to the EU and of NATO will spill over into wider policy areas? The argument for stabilizing Balkan countries through integration into the EU and NATO remains strong, but with Euro-American relations still badly scarred by last year’s disagreements over the advisability of Georgian and Ukrainian NATO membership, how deep are the pitfalls? Page 4 SECURITY & DEFENCE AGENDA SDA Event Report and Discussion Paper Panel speakers Admiral Giampaolo di Paola, Chairman of the Military Committee, NATO Doris Pack MEP, Chairwoman of the Delegation for relations with the countries of South-East Europe Jamie Shea, Director for Policy & Planning, Private Office of the Secretary General, NATO Co-moderators Giles Merritt, Director of the Security & Defence Agenda (Brussels) Peter R. Weilemann, Director of the European Office, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Agenda (Brussels) H.E. Robert Hunter, former US Ambassador to NATO (Washington, DC) VIP discussants H.E. Tacan Ildem, Permanent Representative, Delegation of Turkey to NATO H.E. Kire Ilioski, Ambassador, Mission of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to NATO H.E. Artur Kuko, Ambassador, Mission of Albania to NATO H.E. Branislav Milinkovic, Ambassador, Mission of Serbia to NATO H.E. Igor Pokaz, Ambassador, Mission of Croatia to NATO H.E. Nikola Radovanovic, Ambassador, Mission of Bosnia-Herzegovina to NATO H.E. Thrasyvoulos Terry Stamatopoulos, Permanent Representative, Delegation of Greece to NATO H.E. Veselin Sukovic, Ambassador, Mission of Montenegro to NATO Dr. Nikolaos Tzifakis, Head of the International Cooperation Department, Constantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy Page 5 SECURITY & DEFENCE AGENDA Security implications of Balkan integration component of preventing the resurgence of Event Report nationalism since it would help politicians from the region work together with others who have Co-moderating with SDA Director Giles different opinions but the same goals. Citing Merritt, Peter Weilemann, Director of the the past successes of EU forces in Bosnia, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s European Office, she said she was happy that the EU remained kicked off the debate by stressing that engaged within the framework of NATO and European security was inextricably linked to – saw existing NATO structures as facilitating and dependent on – a stable and peaceful EU efforts in the region. Balkan region. Admiral Giampaolo di Paola, Chairman of the Giles Merritt then asked the panellists for their NATO Military Committee, agreed, saying that opinions on a recent Gallup poll which integration was not only in the interest of both revealed that between 10 and 15 percent of Balkan states and international institutions, but people in all Balkan countries think that a also that integration would provide a strong resumption of conflict is either certain or stimulus for democratic transformation. He probable, which he saw as evidence of stressed that as part of Euro-Atlantic disconcerting levels of tension in the region. institutions states not only gain rights, but they While he agreed with Admiral di Paola that also acquire certain responsibilities such as NATO member states are more likely to settle adopting similarly democratic values. disagreements through mechanisms within the Describing integration as having a mitigating Alliance framework, he wondered whether effect on regional instability, di Paola foresaw new member states would use their member- a time when Balkan states would provide ship as leverage against potential member more security to the alliance then they would states in long-standing disputes like the consume. Cyprus situation Questioning di Paola’s seemingly rosy depiction of the current climate in the Balkans, Giles Merritt reminded the audience of the recent border dispute between Croatia and Slovenia as an example of how latent tensions between Balkan states can pose security issues for Europe as a whole. Di Paola acknowledged that while the border dispute in question could potentially pose a short delay to the accession process, it did not represent a fundamental problem. He also said that as members of the Alliance, states facing such disputes have strong incentives for resolution. Admiral di Paola Speaking next, Doris Pack, described by Merritt as the foremost MEP on EU-Balkan Speaking next, Jamie Shea, NATO’s Director issues, called for a differentiation between NATO and EU membership processes and for Policy & Planning in the Private Office of urged policymakers to remember that once a the Secretary General, said that NATO had state has fulfilled pre-defined membership been good for the Balkans and vice versa, conditions, more conditions cannot be with critical lessons learned in the Balkans imposed. Although she expressed concern currently being applied in Afghanistan. He that Bosnia was becoming increasingly more went on to comment that the comprehensive ethnically divided, she did not believe that war approach currently used in Afghanistan – in would break out again. She saw integration which NATO works collaboratively with other into international institutions as a critical regional and international organisations – was developed during NATO’s experiences in the Page 6 SECURITY & DEFENCE AGENDA SDA Event Report and Discussion Paper Balkans. He saw the Alliance as owing a the Ambassadors of the Western Balkan political debt to finish what was started in the states to NATO. Speaking first, Turkish Am- Balkans almost exactly ten years ago by bassador Tacan Ildem lauded the compre- bringing the western Balkan region into hensive approach of the international commu- Euro-Atlantic structures. Concerned that nity in Kosovo and hoped that EULEX would strategic neglect could give rise to a focus intensified efforts on creating an effi- resurgence of nationalist forces, he cient Kosovo Police Service. On Bosnia, he highlighted the importance of continued called for vigilance in combating what he saw attention and pressure from the international as increased nationalist rhetoric and he urged community as internal momentum for the EU not to be too hasty in the decision to integration was still lacking. He reminded the transfer responsibility and downsize audience that nationalist forces still exist, operations in the region. particularly in Bosnia, and it was essential that stakeholders not only found the political space to evaluate the Balkan situation, but also Serbian Ambassador Branislav Milinkovic acted in a preventive – rather than reactive – agreed with di Paola that Balkan states were manner. already contributing to security in the region and thanked Doris Pack for differentiating between the EU and NATO accession processes, particularly given Serbia’s desire for EU membership in the near future. Although Serbia was not aspiring for NATO membership, he saw the possibility of broader security cooperation between NATO and the EU not only as beneficial to regional stability, but also potentially helpful in solving what he described as NATO’s “identity crisis.” Greek Ambassador Thrasyvoulos Terry Stamatopoulos spoke of the rules governing Doris Pack NATO enlargement – the enlargement study of 1995 -- and reminded the audience that Shea also saw the increasing relevance of the under these rules, NATO enlargement should