A study of the economic, environmental and social impacts of a loss of grazing livestock in the East of England Phase 2 FINAL REPORT A report prepared by PACEC on behalf of Natural England PACEC Public and Corporate Economic Consultants www.pacec.co.uk 49-53 Regent Street Cambridge CB2 1AB Tel: 01223 311649 Fax: 01223 362913 504 Linen Hall 162-168 Regent Street London W1B 5TF Tel: 020 7038 3571 Fax: 020 7038 3570 e-mail: [email protected] September 2007 Ref: H:\0512\12CA\Rep\Phase 2 Final\Phase 2 report (21.02.07).doc PACEC Contents Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................3 X1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................3 X2 The Grazing of Cattle and Sheep in the East of England today ........................................3 X3 The Future of Cattle and Sheep Grazing in the East of England.......................................5 X4 The Social Impacts of Grazing Sheep and Cattle ..............................................................6 1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................8 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................8 1.2 Aims and Objectives of the Study ......................................................................................9 1.3 Report Content .................................................................................................................10 1.4 Acknowledgements ..........................................................................................................11 2 Approach and Methodology..................................................................................................12 2.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................12 2.2 Conceptual Framework ....................................................................................................12 2.3 Research Programme ......................................................................................................15 2.4 Survey of Farmers, Land Managers and Graziers...........................................................17 2.5 Survey of suppliers and downstream businesses............................................................20 2.6 Quality of Life Surveys .....................................................................................................21 2.7 Building the Model and the Baseline Scenario for assessing the Economic Impacts .....24 2.8 Reading the data tables in this report ..............................................................................27 3 Cattle and Sheep Grazing in the East of England................................................................28 3.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................28 3.2 Types of Farm .................................................................................................................29 3.3 Types of Holdings.............................................................................................................33 3.4 Number of Livestock.........................................................................................................38 3.5 Number of livestock per holding.......................................................................................44 3.6 Stocking Rates .................................................................................................................62 3.7 Composition of livestock ..................................................................................................63 3.8 Arrangements for grazing cattle/sheep on a holding .......................................................65 3.9 Constraints .......................................................................................................................68 3.10 Key Findings ................................................................................................................69 4 Jobs and Gross Value Added (GVA) supported by grazing sheep and cattle in the East of England .........................................................................................................................................72 4.2 Direct Employment...........................................................................................................72 4.3 Indirect Employment.........................................................................................................74 4.4 Gross Value Added (GVA) ...............................................................................................80 4.5 Key Findings.....................................................................................................................81 5 Drivers of Change for the Red Meat and Dairy Industries ...................................................82 5.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................82 5.2 Supply Side ......................................................................................................................82 5.3 Demand Side..................................................................................................................122 5.4 Summary of the drivers of supply and their future impact..............................................135 5.5 Summary of drivers of demand and their future impact.................................................140 6 The Future of the Red Meat and Dairy Industries in the East of England..........................142 6.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................142 6.2 Future Land Use in the East of England ........................................................................142 Phase 2 Page 1 PACEC Contents 6.3 Future Numbers of Cattle and Sheep in the East of England........................................145 6.4 Jobs supported by grazing sheep and cattle in the East of England in the future.........147 6.5 GVA supported by cattle and sheep grazing in the East of England in the future.........148 7 Cattle and Sheep Grazing Occupations .............................................................................150 7.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................150 7.2 Occupational structure ...................................................................................................150 7.3 Age structure of the agricultural workforce ....................................................................152 7.4 Skill Levels .....................................................................................................................153 7.5 The changing lifestyle of a livestock farmer ...................................................................156 7.6 Implications for future employment in the industry and recruitment ..............................164 7.7 Redeployment of Labour................................................................................................166 7.8 Key Findings...................................................................................................................166 8 The social impacts of cattle and sheep grazing in the East of England.............................168 8.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................168 8.2 The role of local sheep and cattle grazing in the classroom..........................................168 8.3 The importance of grazed landscapes in attracting tourism and businesses ................174 8.4 The value of grazed landscapes in the provision of recreational activities....................181 8.5 Key Findings...................................................................................................................185 9 Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Research ...............................................186 9.1 Conclusions....................................................................................................................186 9.2 Recommendations for Phase 3......................................................................................192 9.3 Other Future Areas of Research ....................................................................................193 Appendix A Stakeholder Organisations Contacted ..............................................................195 Appendix B Bibliography.......................................................................................................196 Published Literature.................................................................................................................196 Other important resources:......................................................................................................197 Appendix C Farmers and Land Managers’ Questionnaire ...................................................199 Appendix D Graziers’ Questionnaire ....................................................................................218 Appendix E Suppliers’ Questionnaire ...................................................................................231