Berkshire County Education Task Force Planning Study, Phase One Final Report, October 2016 Prepared for the Berkshire County Education Task Force BCETF Planning Study 2016, Final Report Berkshire County Education Task Force Planning Study, Phase One Final Report, October 2016 Project Staff Eliot Levine, Ph.D., Senior Research Manager About the Donahue Institute The University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute is the public service, outreach, and economic development unit of the University of Massachusetts President’s Office. Established in 1971, the Institute strives to connect the Commonwealth with the resources of the University through services that combine theory and innovation with public and private sector applications. UMDI’s Applied Research and Program Evaluation group specializes in applied social science research, including program evaluation, survey research, policy research, and needs assessment. The group has designed and implemented research and evaluation projects for diverse programs and clients in the areas of education, human services, economic development, and organizational development. Acknowledgments The UMass Donahue Institute extends its sincere appreciation to the many people who supported and collaborated with us on this report. We thank all members of the Berkshire County Education Task Force, with special thanks to the Task Force chair, John Hockridge. Nat Karns and Matt Maloy from the Berkshire Regional Planning Commission provided generous support related to accessing, analyzing, and interpreting datasets. We also thank the administrators from all Berkshire County school districts who participated in interviews and provided data. Steve Ellis, senior research manager in UMDI’s Applied Research and Program Evaluation group, provided support for initiating and shaping this project. Susan Strate, senior program manager in UMDI’s Population Estimates Program, provided support with population projections. Project funding was provided by the Berkshire County Education Task Force. University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute 413‐587‐2400 (phone) Applied Research and Program Evaluation Group 413‐587‐2410 (fax) 100 Venture Way, Suite 5 www.donahue.umassp.edu Hadley, MA 01035‐9462 UMass Donahue Institute ii Applied Research and Program Evaluation BCETF Planning Study 2016, Final Report Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... iv Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 1 Methods ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 Findings ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 Literature Review – Effective Approaches ......................................................................................... 3 Shared Services ......................................................................................................................... 5 School District Consolidation .................................................................................................... 6 Enrollment Trends and Population Projections .................................................................................. 8 Cost and Revenue Trends ................................................................................................................. 11 Major Costs and Revenues ..................................................................................................... 11 Tax Levy Limits and Capacity .................................................................................................. 15 Functional Expenditures by Category ..................................................................................... 20 Selected Student Populations ................................................................................................ 24 School Choice ......................................................................................................................... 25 Building Capacity .................................................................................................................... 27 Students Per Teacher ............................................................................................................. 29 Teacher Salaries ...................................................................................................................... 31 Educational Program Trends ............................................................................................................ 32 Past and Future Strategies for Improving Financial Sustainability ................................................... 41 Shared Services ....................................................................................................................... 41 School District Consolidation .................................................................................................. 44 Other Cost‐Saving Strategies .................................................................................................. 48 Estimating Fiscal Impacts of Change Strategies ............................................................................... 50 Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 52 References ................................................................................................................................................. 58 Appendix A – First Administrator Interview Protocol ................................................................................ 62 Appendix B – Second Administrator Interview Protocol ........................................................................... 64 UMass Donahue Institute iii Applied Research and Program Evaluation BCETF Planning Study 2016, Final Report Executive Summary The Berkshire County Education Task Force (BCETF or “the Task Force”) is a group of current and former school administrators and educators, school committee members, town administrators, and local business leaders who have concluded that the county’s public schools face reductions in educational quality due to declining student enrollment and revenues that are not keeping pace with costs. The Task Force seeks to inform regional dialogue and action with: (1) evidence of whether current approaches to educational service delivery are sustainable, and (2) the potential benefits and risks associated with various strategies to maintain financial sustainability and educational quality. The Task Force contracted with the UMass Donahue Institute (UMDI) to conduct the first phase of a two‐phase study to provide evidence relevant to these issues. Phase One is intended to review and confirm available evidence that decreased enrollment, rising costs, and declining or flat revenues pose challenges to the quality of education in Berkshire County. In addition, it is intended to generate insight into the potential benefits and risks of inter‐district shared service and school district consolidation strategies, as well as ways that the costs of these strategies have been modeled. Phase Two would model costs associated with shared services and consolidation. The ultimate goal of this work is to develop implementable recommendations for Berkshire County municipalities. Methods for the study included interviewing two groups of administrators representing all Berkshire County school districts; numerous communications with Task Force members and personnel from the Berkshire Regional Planning Commission; and review and analysis of relevant literature and datasets. A brief summary of findings for each of the study’s research questions are presented next. Literature Review – Effective Approaches Shared services. The two primary change strategies being considered by the Task Force are shared services models and school district consolidation. There is substantial evidence that sharing services can save money. Six common domains for shared services in Massachusetts include special education programs and services, professional development, student transportation, educational technology, cooperative purchasing, and energy management, but many other domains for shared services are possible and have been pursued already in Berkshire County. Educational Service Agencies, or “Collaboratives,” are a common formal vehicle for shared services work. Berkshire County formerly had an educational collaborative, and current efforts among groups of Berkshire County districts include exploring the possibility of developing another collaborative in the county. School district consolidation. The Task Force’s proposals for school district consolidation include advancing formal partnerships between geographically proximal districts or advancing reorganization of the entire county into a super region of one to three districts. The literature suggests that every potential regionalization effort needs to be assessed individually with regard to its likelihood of yielding UMass Donahue Institute iv Applied Research and Program Evaluation BCETF Planning Study 2016, Final Report educational quality improvements and cost savings. These desired outcomes are not assured,