DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS FOR SUSTAINABLE HEATING IN METROPOLITAN AREAS HOW THE PLANNING & DESIGN OF DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS IN METROPOLITAN AREAS CAN SUPPORT STAKEHOLDERS IN THEIR TRANSITION TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE HEATING A Qualitative Study on District Heating in Denmark and the Netherlands S.V.H.J. Wiegerinck DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS FOR SUSTAINABLE HEATING IN METROPOLITAN AREAS HOW THE PLANNING & DESIGN OF DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS IN METROPOLITAN AREAS CAN SUPPORT STAKEHOLDERS IN THEIR TRANSITION TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE HEATING A Qualitative Study on District Heating in Denmark and the Netherlands by Stijn Vincent Henri Jacques Wiegerinck In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Construction Management and Engineering at Delft University of Technology To be defended publicly on August 21st, 2020. GRADUATION COMMITTEE Chair Prof. dr. ir. A.A.J.F. (Andy) van den Dobbelsteen TU Delft First supervisor Dr. ir. I.W.M. (Ivo) Pothof TU Delft Second supervisor Dr. T. (Thomas) Hoppe TU Delft External supervisor Drs. N. (Nico) Büskens MSc. Alliander An electronic version of this thesis is available at https://repository.tudelft.nl/ – This page is intentionally left blank – iv Preface What a beauty! Or simply an eyesore, resembling the gloomy towers of the fictional world of Tolkien's Mordor? The design of Erick van Egeraat's state-of-the-art Energitårnet waste incineration plant in Roskilde – of which a part of the interior is shown on the cover photo – can count on widely varying opinions like the above, ranging from loud applause to strongly disapproval. This more or less captures the range of views that apply to district heating. Like many other energy systems, district heating systems and the elements they consist of are often subject to far from sophisticated opinions and a public perception that regularly seems to be based on nothing more than gut feeling. Still, these systems play an important role in the energy sector of various countries and are expected to contribute to the transition towards more sustainable heating in many others. For me, the great potential for the energy transition combined with confusion about definitions, the occasionally heated debate and the lack of knowledge and experience proved district heating systems would offer the right ingredients for a challenging thesis subject. I got exactly what I asked for. Over the course of many months, I dived deep into roles and factors, planning processes, greatly different stakeholders and an abundance of rules and regulations. It seems to me that district heating systems indeed offer a promising way to pursue a fully renewable heat provision. However, there still are so many uncertainties and problems to be solved. I think this research offers a modest, but relevant addition to existing knowledge and at the same time it shows the way to further improvements of the process through which district heating systems are planned and designed. Although individually conducting research and writing a master's thesis can sometimes be a lonely activity, I did not go through this process all by myself. Many people have supported me, shared their knowledge, improved my understanding and also helped me relax and enjoy the time in between. Therefore, I want to thank all of the people that I met during this process and mention a few people in particular. Naturally, I first would like to thank my graduation committee. Andy, Ivo and Thomas: thank you for your guidance, your eye for detail, your patience and for assisting me in shaping this research, while at the same time giving me the freedom to make it as ambitious as I wanted. Nico, thank you for your help in finding my way at Alliander, for brainstorming together, for keeping it light and making a joke on the side. I also would like to thank Daniel for offering me the opportunity to come to Denmark, hosting me at DTU and introducing me to the Danish context. I cannot forget to thank the many people that took the time to let me interview them. I want to express my gratitude towards all twenty-three interviewees, both in Denmark and the Netherlands, who patiently explained me how the district heating sector works and were willing to think out-of-the-box, even being eager to learn themselves. Besides to them, I am also grateful to have informally deliberated and brainstormed with many other people, at places ranging from someone's living room to the national parliament. Of course I would like to thank friends and family for being so supportive, offering to help or for simply talking about other things than insulated piping. During weeks I was not doing anything but writing about system requirements and other very inspiring matters, just drinking a beer or having a laugh was more valuable than they might have thought. The last and – undoubtedly – the most important people I want to thank are my parents and Anna for being patient, worried, proud, calming and unconditionally supportive. My parents have always fully been there over the years, but even stepped it up during the last one. Anna: exactly that last year has not always been easy, which makes it even more wonderful that you managed to always help and encourage me and to make me laugh, especially when you did not feel like it. Many people have been helpful, but without you finishing this thesis would not have been possible. I wanted a challenge and that is exactly what I got. I hope this thesis shows to be a proper answer to this challenge and all can enjoy reading the result! Stijn Wiegerinck Amsterdam, August 2020 v vi Summary Introduction After the Paris Agreement of 2015 established the goal to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, it became clear that all sectors need to contribute. As heat accounted for 52% of global final energy consumption in 2015, of which roughly 40% was consumed in buildings, heating for the built environment is considered one of the most important sectors in the energy transition. As the majority of the world's population lives in buildings within cities and this percentage is rising, making the urban heating sector more sustainable makes for a huge challenge. District heating (DH) systems offer an opportunity to overcome this challenge. However, the share of renewable heating is growing much more slowly than renewable electricity. Furthermore, it is not always clear how to appropriately design a DH system in order for it to support the transition towards a sustainable heat provision and to assist all stakeholders in this transition. What roles need to be fulfilled within the system and which factors influence the functioning of such a DH system? Also, how could the heat planning process and subsequent procurement procedure add to the design of DH systems that boost the heat transition? Research methodology The first research phase states the problem of interest and establishes a research strategy. This research addresses the problem as described above and in order to do so a research question and five sub-questions are drafted. The main research question is formulated as follows: In the second research phase a literature review is conducted to study which roles need to be fulfilled within DH systems and what factors can be distinguished that influence DH system functioning. After careful preparation a multiple single-outcome study is performed on two cases: the DH systems of Greater Copenhagen and Greater Amsterdam. Through cross-case analysis the third research phase drafts stakeholder type descriptions, discussed their interests and influence and links these interests to system requirements. The fourth phase analyses the heat planning process of the two cases and defines system design types based on the factors from literature, which relate to the system requirements of the third phase. In the fifth and last phase improvements for the planning process and policy are identified, after which the implications and limitations of this research are discussed, followed by answering the research question and recommendations are made for dealing with the described problem and identified challenges. Results The literature study results show six main roles in and fifteen important factors of DH systems. These roles have to be distinguished from stakeholders, as a role can be fulfilled by different stakeholders and a stakeholder can perform multiple roles at the same time. The fifteen factors are divided over four categories; technical, regulatory, economic and societal factors. The case study results in two extensive case reports of Copenhagen and Amsterdam. Many differences and some similarities exist between the two cases, where differences mainly relate to historical development, physical dimensions, ownership structure and price regulation. The cross-case analysis resulted in ten stakeholder types that were identified and for which interests in and influence on heat planning and DH systems were described. Of these ten, one half can be considered 'passive' stakeholders, the other half 'active' stakeholders. Especially the passive stakeholder types show a disbalance between interest and influence, which is considered to have an impact on the degree to which system requirements – on which tenders and system design options are based – represent the interests of these stakeholder types. In the analysis of the planning process it becomes clear that stakeholder involvement in heat planning and in drafting system requirements in particular is limited. Especially the passive stakeholder group – consisting of consumers, housing associations, building owners and governments – are thought to be little involved and often also not properly (indirectly) represented in establishing the set of system requirements on which their DH system is based. The identification of technical and organisational system design types shows some configurations of choices on system design factors are less likely to come out of the planning, procurement and design processes, as passive stakeholder types – with interests that often differ from active stakeholder interests – are not included in drafting the system requirements on which these system designs are based.