Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2019-12 POWER FROM THE POPULATION: AN ANALYSIS OF TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS IN LATIN AMERICA Vargas, Antony V. Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/64087 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS POWER FROM THE POPULATION: AN ANALYSIS OF TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS IN LATIN AMERICA by Antony V. Vargas December 2019 Thesis Advisor: Kalev I. Sepp Second Reader: Heather S. Gregg, U.S. Army War College Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Form Approved OMB REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) December 2019 Master's thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS POWER FROM THE POPULATION: AN ANALYSIS OF TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS IN LATIN AMERICA 6. AUTHOR(S) Antony V. Vargas 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), particularly drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), are a growing concern for the United States and Latin America. Relatively little research, however, focuses on how TCOs build relationships with local populations as part of their overall operations. This thesis draws from counterinsurgency literature to consider the role that populations play in TCO and counter-TCO efforts. It uses a controlled case study comparison between the Medellín Cartel in Colombia from 1976 to 1993, and a study of the Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico from 1988 to 2019 to investigate the ways TCOs engage populations, both positively and negatively; the steps the governments take to conduct counter-TCO operations and their effects on the population; and the measures the governments take to positively engage the population. It finds that both of these cartels have actively sought to win the support of populations by providing resources to local communities, including infrastructure development, aid, and other resources. The governments of Colombia and Mexico, by contrast, initially did little to positively engage affected populations. The thesis concludes by posing steps that governments can take to better engage these populations. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF transnational criminal organization, TCO, drug trafficking organization, DTO, counter PAGES transnational organized crime, CTOC, counter transnational organized crime, C-TCO, 101 counterinsurgency, COIN, DEA, FBI, Medellín, Sinaloa, Pablo Escobar, Colombia, Mexico, 16. PRICE CODE Joaquín Guzmán, El Chapo, drugs, cocaine, marijuana, eradication, extradition, crime, corruption, cartel, homeland security, border, terrorism, narcoterrorism, narcotics, government, population, influence 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. POWER FROM THE POPULATION: AN ANALYSIS OF TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS IN LATIN AMERICA Antony V. Vargas Major, United States Army BS, U.S. Military Academy, 2008 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS (IRREGULAR WARFARE) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2019 Approved by: Kalev I. Sepp Advisor Heather S. Gregg Second Reader Kalev I. Sepp Chair, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), particularly drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), are a growing concern for the United States and Latin America. Relatively little research, however, focuses on how TCOs build relationships with local populations as part of their overall operations. This thesis draws from counterinsurgency literature to consider the role that populations play in TCO and counter-TCO efforts. It uses a controlled case study comparison between the Medellín Cartel in Colombia from 1976 to 1993, and a study of the Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico from 1988 to 2019 to investigate the ways TCOs engage populations, both positively and negatively; the steps the governments take to conduct counter-TCO operations and their effects on the population; and the measures the governments take to positively engage the population. It finds that both of these cartels have actively sought to win the support of populations by providing resources to local communities, including infrastructure development, aid, and other resources. The governments of Colombia and Mexico, by contrast, initially did little to positively engage affected populations. The thesis concludes by posing steps that governments can take to better engage these populations. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 A. BACKGROUND TO THE PROBLEM ...................................................1 B. RESEARCH QUESTIONS .......................................................................2 C. METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................3 D. FINDINGS ..................................................................................................3 E. OUTLINE OF THESIS .............................................................................4 II. TCOs, POPULATIONS, AND GOVERNMENT COUNTERMEASURES .......................................................................................7 A. WHAT IS A TCO?.....................................................................................7 B. WHAT ARE THE CONDITIONS THAT CREATE TCOS? .............14 C. TCOS AND THE POPULATION ..........................................................18 D. COMBATTING TCOs ............................................................................23 E. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................27 III. CASE STUDY 1: THE MEDELLÍN CARTEL, THE POPULATION, AND GOVERNMENT COUNTERMEASURES .............................................29 A. HISTORY OF THE MEDELLÍN CARTEL .........................................30 B. THE MEDELLÍN CARTEL’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE POPULATION .........................................................................................34 C. THE GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE TO THE MEDELLÍN CARTEL ...................................................................................................41 1. Eradication ...................................................................................41 2. Military and Police Confrontation .............................................42 3. Partnering with the United States ..............................................43 4. Negotiations ..................................................................................46 D. ANALYSIS: THE CARTEL, THE GOVERNMENT, AND THE POPULATION .........................................................................................49 E. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................50 IV. CASE STUDY 2: THE SINALOA CARTEL, THE POPULATION, AND GOVERNMENT COUNTERMEASURES .............................................51 A. HISTORY OF THE SINALOA CARTEL ............................................52 B. THE SINALOA CARTEL’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE POPULATION .........................................................................................54 C. THE GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE TO THE SINALOA CARTEL ...................................................................................................57 1. Eradication ...................................................................................57 vii 2. Police, Judicial, and Military Operations ..................................59 3. The Government’s Treatment of the Press ...............................63 4. Partnering with the United States ..............................................64 5. Other Government Programs .....................................................66