THE IMPERATIVES OF REGIONAL SECURITY A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN-CHINA RELATIONS IN THE POST 9/11 PERIOD DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN DEFENCE AND STRATEGIC STUDIES BY MUHAMMAD MUNIR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE AND STRATEGIC STUDIES QUAID-I-AZAM UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD PAKISTAN AUGUST 2016 THE IMPERATIVES OF REGIONAL SECURITY A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN-CHINA RELATIONS IN THE POST 9/11 PERIOD A thesis submitted to the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN DEFENCE AND STRATEGIC STUDIES BY MUHAMMAD MUNIR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE AND STRATEGIC STUDIES QUAID-I-AZAM UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD-PAKISTAN AUGUST 2016 ABSTRACT South Asian regional security has been comprehensively transformed in the post 9/11 period with intensification in traditional security threats along with the emergence of non-traditional security challenges. This study encompasses the emerging trends and the imperatives of regional security to investigate various aspects of strategic relations between Pakistan and China which existed in the past and explores whether their relations in the changed political theatre of the post 9/11 period have further enhanced or remained static. The study provides analysis of Pakistan-China relations by taking into account the new variables in post 9/11 era, which have acquired significance and bear on the implications of enhanced bilateral relationship, upon welfare of the people and conclusively for prosperity of the region. The study draws upon the vast literature and unpublished records to build an approach for examining the correlation between imperatives of regional security and enhancement of Pakistan-China strategic cooperation. In addition, the research endeavours to examine the role of China that it can offer to mediate the intricate state of regional affairs and provides the impetus to regional economies. Pakistan-China strategic partnership is crucial to maintain the balance of power in the region as it vouches regional security and stability. Indo-US strategic cooperation in defence and nuclear technology, support for India‟s inclusion into the United Nation Security Council as permanent member and US‟ stern approach of containing China‟s rise poses an aggravating threat to existing balance of power in the region. The study predicts that the future prospects of Pakistan and China‟s cooperation in promoting regional security, stability and cooperation are bright. Both the countries are committed to enhance cooperation at bilateral and multilateral levels by forging a „community of shared destiny‟ with the objective of socio-economic development, for the people of both the countries as well as for the region. Therefore, promoting regional peace by meeting the imperatives of regional security such as eradication of extremism and terrorism, close cooperation for peace and stability in Afghanistan and making joint efforts for regional connectivity in South Asia would be in the common interest of both Pakistan and China, and the region at large. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The completion of this doctoral thesis has drawn together the whole of my previous learning experience in a way no other experience could have. I therefore, humbly offer my thanks to the Almighty Allah, the compassionate and the merciful, who gave me good health, knowledge and the opportunity to complete this study. I feel particular pleasure in expressing my immeasurable gratitude to my research supervisor Dr. Nazir Hussain, who over the years fought a successful uphill battle to turn me into a confident and independent researcher. I have no words to appreciate his persistence guidance, patience and help in the finalisation of this thesis. His professionalism, intellect, dedication and commitment have been, and always will be, a source of light for me. I am extremely grateful to Professor Dr. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, former President IPRI for his assiduous support, and above all, his unrivalled kindness during difficult times. He was a constant source of inspiration and encouragement throughout his tenure as President Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI). I would also like to thank Mr. Jehangheer Fayyaz, who diligently reviewed my work with utmost affability, commitment and professional skills. Furthermore, I am proud to say that I had the full support of all my colleagues at IPRI. This study would have not been possible without the generous cooperation and assistance of hundreds of professionals in and out of Pakistan, especially many Chinese scholars. Many of them gave me hours of their valuable time in support of the success of this research study. I am also deeply indebted to each and every one of the respondents, and extend my thanks to all. My special thanks are also due to my brother Dr. Muhammad Ahsan who always generously helped and guided me during my research. Without his persuasion and input, it would have not been possible for me to complete this dissertation. I do not have suitable words at command to adequately offer my acknowledgement to my family. It was impossible to complete this research without the continued support, encouragement and sacrifices of my wife Fatima. Also, it would be unjust if I do not appreciate the patience of my children who have been deprived of countless numbers of hours of parenthood when I sat behind the iv closed door. I also pay my respect to my loving father-in-law and mother-in-law for their continued prayers and encouragement. Last but not least at all, I wish to pay a great respect to my mother for her prayers for the success of all my endeavours in my life. I am also indebted to the efforts and dreams of my late father for my education. I pray to Allah for all of them. Finally, I would like to thank China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR, Beijing, China) for coordinating my visits to China in 2011 and 2015, and arranging a series of discussions with scholars and researchers of various institutes in Beijing and Shanghai. I am also grateful to Mr. Yang Mingjie, Vice President CICIR, Dr. Hu Shushing and Dr. Wang Shida, both Senior Researchers at CICIR, for their interactive session in October 2015. Additionally, my several productive meetings with a number of other Chinese scholars working at various institutes such as China Institute of Strategic Studies (CISS), Beijing, Institute of South Asian Studies, Peking University (PKU), Shanghai Institute for International Studies (SIIS), and Pakistan Study Centre, Fudan University (FDU), Shanghai, also helped me in my research. Muhammad Munir Islamabad August 2016 v CONTENTS Abstract iii Acknowledgement iv List of Tables, Figures and Maps viii Acronyms ix INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 30 1.1 The Core Concept of Security 1.2 Concept of Human Security 31 1.3 Regional Security Perspectives 35 1.4 Regional Security Complex Theory 38 1.5 Economic Interdependence Theory 40 1.6 Balance of Power Theory 45 1.7 An Overview of Theories and their Application 49 1.8 Conceptual Structure of the Study 53 CHAPTER 2: THE IMPERATIVES OF REGIOAL SECURITY 55 2.1 South Asian Regional Security Complexes 55 2.2 Threats to Regional Security 56 2.3 Intra-Regional and Global Security Complexes 75 2.4 South Asian Security Dynamics and Regional Stability 78 2.5 Post 9/11 Developments in the Region 86 2.6 China: A Stability Factor in South Asia 95 2.7 Pakistan-China Common Interests in the Region 99 CHAPTER 3: STRATEGIC INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND CHINA: POST 9/11 IMPERATIVES 101 3.1 Development of Pakistan-China Relations 101 3.2 Geo-strategic Importance of Pakistan for China and Vice Versa 106 3.3 Factors behind Consolidation of Pakistan-China Strategic Cooperation 114 3.4 China‟s Stance on India‟s Permanent Membership of the UNSC 120 3.5 China‟s Role in Promoting Strategic Stability in South Asian Region 122 3.6 China‟s Stance on Kashmir 124 3.7 Post 9/11 Imperatives of Strategic Interdependence 125 3.8 India‟s Emerging Role in Asia-Pacific 131 3.9 India and South Asia 135 3.10 Pakistan-China Nuclear Cooperation 136 3.11 Chinese Interests and Regional Instability in South and Central Asia 137 3.12 Contemporary Situation and Pakistan-China Strategic Cooperation 139 vi CHAPTER 4: PAKISTAN-CHINA COOPERATION IN DEFENCE AND SECURITY 142 4.1 Military and Defense Cooperation 144 4.2 Nuclear Cooperation 164 4.3 Pakistan-Afghanistan-China Collaboration in Regional Security 4.4 Chinese Political Support for Strengthening Pakistan‟s Security 166 4.5 Pakistan-China Cooperation in Non-Traditional Security Issues 167 CHAPTER 5: PAKISTAN-CHINA ECONOMIC AND TRADE COOPERATION 172 5.1 Bilateral Trade: Pre and Post 9/11 Situation 173 5.2 Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan 180 5.3 Learning from China‟s Development Experience 183 5.4 The Role of Pakistan as an Energy Corridor for China 184 5.5 CPEC: A Win-win Cooperation 195 5.6 Building the Rail-link between Gwadar and Xinjiang 197 5.7 China‟s Economic Interests and their Implications on Afghanistan 201 CHAPTER 6: PAKISTAN-CHINA RELATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL ORGANISATIONS 208 6.1 Region and Regional Organisations 6.2 China‟s Prospective Role in Futuristic SAARC 209 6.3 China‟s Full Membership of SAARC and its Role in Regional Development 231 6.4 Pakistan-China Cooperation in SCO 236 6.5 China‟s Representation in OIC: Role of Pakistan 242 CHAPTER 7: PAKISTAN AND CHINA’S PROSPECTIVE ROLE IN PROMOTING REGIONAL SECURITY AND COOPERATION 245 7.1 Pakistan and China‟s Prospective Role in Promoting Regional Security 7.2 Emerging Regional