E NCOURAGING N U C L E A R I N N O V A T I O N WHAT SMALL MODULAR R EACTORS CAN LEARN FR OM NUCLEAR ATTACK SUBMARINE DEV ELOPMENT Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy Capstone Project Submitted by Evan M. Paradis February 28th, 2014 © 2014 EVAN M. PARADIS http://fletcher.tufts.edu Table of Contents List of Tables & Figures ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Abstract: ............................................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Impetus for this Study: The SMR Licensing & Technical Support Program & the Failures of Nuclear Innovation . 5 What is SMR? ................................................................................................................................................. 5 Nuclear’s Need for Innovation: The Rationale for SMR ............................................................................... 10 Economics & Finance ................................................................................................................................... 13 Siting Flexibility ............................................................................................................................................ 16 Safety ........................................................................................................................................................... 17 Nonproliferation .......................................................................................................................................... 18 Existing Benefits of Nuclear Energy .............................................................................................................. 20 Literature Review: Energy Technology Innovation System, the Valley of Death, and Studies in Nuclear Innovation ........................................................................................................................................................... 23 Previous Studies in Nuclear Innovation ........................................................................................................ 23 Literature Review: Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 31 Innovation and Energy Technology ..................................................................................................................... 33 Rationale, Objectives, and Methods of this Study .............................................................................................. 38 Nuclear Attack Submarine (SSN) Innovation Network ........................................................................................ 41 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 41 The SSN Development Network ................................................................................................................... 42 SSN Network: Initial Formation ................................................................................................................... 43 Organizational Culture ................................................................................................................................. 52 Where Culture Meets Design ....................................................................................................................... 55 Platforms in the United States Navy ............................................................................................................ 58 Learning Effects in SSN Development ................................................................................................................. 69 Problems with Seawolf ................................................................................................................................. 70 The Virginia Class Platform .......................................................................................................................... 72 Learning Effects: Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 79 Lessons from the SSN Network: Enabling the Key Functions of Innovation Systems .......................................... 80 Recommendations .............................................................................................................................................. 87 Network Strengthening ................................................................................................................................ 87 Policy Incentives ........................................................................................................................................... 88 SMR Design .................................................................................................................................................. 90 Cultural Legitimacy ...................................................................................................................................... 91 International Markets for SMR .................................................................................................................... 92 Future Work on Naval Reactors ................................................................................................................... 92 Conclusion........................................................................................................................................................... 93 Appendix A: Offshore Power Systems ................................................................................................................ 95 Appendix B: Innovations Specific to Virginia Class Submarines ......................................................................... 99 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................................................... 101 List of Tables & Figures FIGURE 1: DOE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY SHARE OF FUNDING, COMPARISON OVER THREE PERIODS .. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.3 FIGURE 2: TEMPORAL TRENDS IN UNITED STATES ENERGY PATENTS .......................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.4 FIGURE 3: COMPARISON OF FRENCH AND UNITED STATES NUCLEAR CONSTRUCTION COSTS, AVERAGE AND MINIMUM/MAXIMUM PER REACTOR COMPLETION YEAR ....................................................................................................................................................28 FIGURE 4: LEVELIZED COSTS OF LEAD AND LEARNING PLANTS ($/MWH) .................................................................................30 FIGURE 5: THE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION SYSTEM ..................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.5 FIGURE 6: THE VALLEY OF DEATH ........................................................................................................................................36 FIGURE 7: THE MOUNTAIN OF DEATH ..................................................................................................................................37 FIGURE 8: UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT SUPPORT NETWORK FOR SSN DEVELOPMENT .............................................................46 FIGURE 9: THE UNITED STATES NAVY'S ANNUAL BUDGET FOR PROCUREMENT FOR REACTOR POWER PLANTS AND REACTOR PLANT COMPONENTS, FY1996 TO FY2014 (IN MILLIONS $) ....................................................................................................48 FIGURE 10: DOE AND NAVY RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, TESTING & EVALUATION FUNDING FOR NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES (IN MILLIONS $) ..............................................................................................................................................................................50 FIGURE 11: UNITED STATES NAVY’S RDT&E BUDGET FOR PRE-EXISTING SUBMARINE MODERNIZATION, DEVELOPMENT, AND ADVANCEMENT OF NEW SUBMARINE DESIGNS (IN MILLIONS $) .............................................................................................................51 FIGURE 12: VIRGINIA CLASS SUBMARINE END-ITEM RECURRING FLYAWAY COST (IN MILLIONS OF 1995 $)....................................73 FIGURE 13: VIRGINIA CLASS SUBMARINE DELIVERY RATES (MONTHS) .....................................................................................74 FIGURE 14: INSURV READINESS RESULTS FOR DELIVERED VIRGINIA CLASS SUBMARINES ............................................................75 FIGURE 15: AVERAGE INITIAL INSURV READINESS SCORES FOR VIRGINIA CLASS SUBMARINES ....................................................75 TABLE 1: UNITED STATES NAVY’S MODERN NUCLEAR ATTACK SUBMARINE PLATFORM EVOLUTION ............................................58 TABLE 2: SOVIET NAVY’S NUCLEAR SUBMARINE INCIDENTS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE UNITED STATES NAVY ...................... 66-67 Page | 1 Abstract: Small modular reactors (SMR) represent the most recent innovation by nuclear engineering firms in the United States, and thus are the subject of a great deal of optimism within the industry. SMR units are advanced reactors (Generation III+ or IV) that are miniaturized