THE VAN HORNE INSTITUTE CALGARY-EDMONTON HIGH SPEED RAIL PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY ______________________________________________________________________________________ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Van Horne Institute gratefully acknowledges the financial support received from the Province of Alberta, Transport Canada and Western Economic Diversification, as well as contributions of in- kind technical services from: C Alberta Ministry of Economic Development, C Alberta Ministry of Transportation, C Bombardier Transportation, C Canac Inc., C Canadian Pacific Railway, C SNC Lavalin, and, C VIA Rail Canada. It should be emphasized that all participants contributing in-kind services have done so on the clear understanding that this will not result in sole or preferred procurement of goods and services in the event the project proceeds to implementation. However, nor does this involvement exclude their consideration in future procurement of goods and services. The Van Horne Institute would also like to acknowledge the work and contributions of the following individuals: Van Horne Institute: Art Smith, Chairman Emeritus Bob Brawn, Chariman Peter Wallis, President & CEO Sarah Bolton, Programs Manager Nancy Stirling, Former Programs Manager Alain Verbeke, McCaig Chair in Management, Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary. Teresa Watts, President, Shirocca Consulting/ Project Manager, Calgary-Edmonton HSR Pre-Feasibility Study. Alberta Economic Development: Justin Riemer, Executive Director, Alberta Economic Development Jim Hamblin, Director, International Logistics Rick Sloan, Assistant Deputy Minister, Industry & Regional Development Alberta Innovation & Science: Barry Mehr, Deputy Minister Ray Bassett, Assistant Deputy Minister Alberta Transportation: Rod Thompson, Executive Director Peter Kilburn, Forecasting Engineer Bombardier Transportation: Lecia Stewart, Vice-President High Speed Rail, North America J. Donald Hunt, Director, Marketing & Sales Canada Eric Panet-Raymond, Director, Marketing & Product Planning Julian Haber, Senior Analyst, Marketing & Product Planning ______________________________________________________________________________________ SHIROCCA CONSULTING i October 2004 THE VAN HORNE INSTITUTE CALGARY-EDMONTON HIGH SPEED RAIL PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY ______________________________________________________________________________________ Marcos Tarnowski, Market Analyst, Marketing & Product Planning Canac Inc: Dennis Letourneau, P.Eng., Senior Project Engineer Don Fraser, Senior Engineering Designer Canadian Pacific Railway: Doug Welsh, Executive Director, Strategic Development Deepak Ekbote, Director Cost Research & Analysis SNC Lavalin Inc: Dale Christensen, Senior Vice-President, and General Manager, Chemicals, Petroleum & Industrial Business Unit Doug Macdonald, P. Eng., Manager, Studies & Developmental Projects SNC-Lavalin Capital Inc: Esther Tse, Vice-President, Project Financing Transport Canada: Denis Courtemanche, Economic Analyst VIA Rail: Christena Keon-Sirsly, Chief Strategy Officer Gerry Kolaitis, Director, Strategic Planning Andre Gravelle, Senior Director Civil Engineering John Udell, Director Marketing, Planning & Services Klaus Heckersbruch, Project Director, Financial Support, Corporate Planning & Financial Support Stewart Penketh, Project Director, Costing & Rail Contracts Constantin Geropapas, Director Contracts Administration & Business Development Giovanni Labbiento, Senior Financial Analyst, Corporate Financial Planning & Control Western Economic Diversification: Doug Chambers, Senior Business Officer Consultants: Ipsos-Reid - Kyle Braid, Vice-President & Gillian Grantham, Senior Research Officer Anthony Steadman and Associates - Anthony Steadman Clifton ND Lea Consulting - Dan Meidl, P.Eng., Colledge Transportation Consulting - David Colledge, President Economic Development Research Group - Teresa Lynch, Economic Consultant DRE Transportation Solutions Inc. - Rick Evans, President ______________________________________________________________________________________ SHIROCCA CONSULTING ii October 2004 THE VAN HORNE INSTITUTE CALGARY-EDMONTON HIGH SPEED RAIL PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY ______________________________________________________________________________________ TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background..................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Initiation of This Study .................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Study Purpose and Objectives........................................................................................ 2 1.4 Study Approach .............................................................................................................. 3 2 CONTEXT FOR HIGH SPEED RAIL ................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Calgary-Edmonton Corridor Profile................................................................................. 4 2.2 Challenges for the Future ............................................................................................... 5 3 TECHNOLOGY REVIEW .............................................................................................................. 7 3.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Overview of Technologies Available............................................................................... 7 3.3 Review of Rail Technology Options................................................................................ 8 3.4 Technology Comparison and Selection ........................................................................ 20 4 ALIGNMENT OPTIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS..................................................... 22 4.1 Introduction................................................................................................................... 22 4.2 CPR Alignment ............................................................................................................. 24 4.2.1 Current Conditions ................................................................................................... 24 4.2.2 Design Standards..................................................................................................... 26 4.2.3 Revised Alignment ................................................................................................... 27 4.2.4 Infrastructure Requirements..................................................................................... 29 4.3 Greenfield Alignment .................................................................................................... 34 4.3.1 Alignment Review and Selection.............................................................................. 35 4.3.2 Design Standards..................................................................................................... 37 4.3.3 Infrastructure Requirements..................................................................................... 37 5 STATIONS AND MAINTENANCE FACILITIES.................................................................................. 41 5.1 Introduction................................................................................................................... 41 5.2 Stations......................................................................................................................... 41 5.2.1 Facility Requirements............................................................................................... 42 5.2.2 Land Requirements.................................................................................................. 43 5.3 Maintenance Facilities .................................................................................................. 44 5.3.1 Facility and Land Requirements............................................................................... 45 6 CAPITAL COSTS ...................................................................................................................... 46 6.1 Introduction................................................................................................................... 46 6.2 Breakdown of Capital Costs.......................................................................................... 46 6.3 Projected Cash Flow..................................................................................................... 53 6.4 Exclusions from Capital Cost Estimates ....................................................................... 53 6.5 Overall Cost Review and Comparison .......................................................................... 54 6.6 Opportunities to Reduce Cost and Project Risks.......................................................... 55 7 RIDERSHIP AND REVENUE FORECASTS...................................................................................... 56 7.1 Background and Methodology ...................................................................................... 56 7.2 Existing Transportation Options.................................................................................... 57 7.3 Characteristics of Current Travel .................................................................................. 58 7.3.1 Current