Federal Aviation Administration 2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts May 2014 FAA Commercial Space Transportation (AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) • i • 2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts About the FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation The Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA AST) licenses and regulates U.S. commercial space launch and reentry activity, as well as the operation of non-federal launch and reentry sites, as authorized by Executive Order 12465 and Title 51 United States Code, Subtitle V, Chapter 509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). FAA AST’s mission is to ensure public health and safety and the safety of property while protecting the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States during commercial launch and reentry operations. In addition, FAA AST is directed to encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial space launches and reentries. Additional information concerning commercial space transportation can be found on FAA AST’s website: http://www.faa.gov/go/ast Cover: The Orbital Sciences Corporation’s Antares rocket is seen as it launches from Pad- 0A of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, Sunday, April 21, 2013. Image Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls NOTICE Use of trade names or names of manufacturers in this document does not constitute an official endorsement of such products or manufacturers, either expressed or implied, by the Federal Aviation Administration. • i • Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 1 COMSTAC 2014 COMMERCIAL GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT LAUNCH DEMAND FORECAST . 5 SUMMARY . 5 HISTORY OF THE REPORT . .6 FORECAST METHODOLOGY . .7 COMSTAC COMMERCIAL GSO LAUNCH DEMAND FORECAST RESULTS . .8 Addressable vs. Unaddressable. .8 Mass Classes. .9 Dual-Manifesting. 11 Near-Term Demand Forecast. .13 Comparison with Previous COMSTAC Forecasts . .14 COMSTAC DEMAND PROJECTION VS. ACTUAL LAUNCHES REALIZED. 15 Factors That Affect Satellite Launch Realization. 15 Projecting Actual Satellites Launched Using a Realization Factor. 16 FACTORS THAT MAY AFFECT FUTURE DEMAND . .17 Demand for Satellite Services. 17 Globalization . .17 Mobility. 18 Market Segments. 18 Satellite Technologies . 20 Spectrum Limitations and Orbital Slot Limitations . .21 New Applications. 22 On-Orbit Servicing . .23 Competition from LEO Systems. .23 Hosted Payloads. 24 Launch Service Providers. .26 Multiaunch Service Agreements. 27 Cooperation and Partnerships. .27 Geopolitical Influences on Launch Vehicle Demand. .28 Impact of International “Government to Government” Satellite Delivery in Orbit Sales. .28 Regulatory Environment. .29 Financial Markets. 30 Space Insurance. 31 SUPPLEMENTARY QUESTIONNAIRE RESULTS . 31 2014 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECAST FOR NON- GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS . 34 INTRODUCTION. .34 SUMMARY. 34 NGSO PAYLOAD MARKET SEGMENTS. .39 Commercial Telecommunication Satellites . 39 Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites. .47 Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services. .55 Other Commercially Launched Satellites. .61 Technology Test and Demonstration Launches. .63 MICROSATELLITES. .64 SATELLITE AND LAUNCH FORECAST TRENDS . 68 LAUNCH VEHICLES TYPICALLY USED FOR NGSO MISSIONS. .72 • ii • • iii • 2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts RISK FACTORS THAT AFFECT SATELLITE AND LAUNCH DEMAND . 73 Financial Uncertainty . .73 Political Uncertainty . .73 Technical Uncertainty . 74 APPENDIX 1: HISTORICAL GSO SATELLITES AND LAUNCHES. .76 APPENDIX 2: HISTORICAL NGSO MARKET ASSESSMENTS. .84 APPENDIX 3: VEHICLE SIZES AND ORBITS . 88 APPENDIX 4: MASS CLASSES FOR GSO AND NGSO PAYLOADS . .88 APPENDIX 5: ACRONYMS. .89 List of Tables Table 1. Commercial Space Transportation Payload and Launch Forecasts. .2 Table 2. Forecast Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand. 6 Table 3. 2013 GSO Forecast Team. .6 Table 4. Addressable and Unaddressable Satellites Since 2004 . 8 Table 5. Satellite Mass Class Categorization. .9 Table 6. Total Satellite Mass Launched per Year and Average Mass per Satellite. .9 Table 7. Trends in Satellite Mass Class Distribution . 10 Table 8. Commercial GSO Satellite Near-Term Manifest. 13 Table 9. ITAR-free Satellites . 29 Table 10. Survey Questionnaire Summary. 33 Table 11. Near-Term NGSO Manifest of Identified Primary Payloads. 38 Table 12. Narrowband Systems. 40 Table 13. Wideband Systems . 41 Table 14. Broadband Systems. 41 Table 15. FCC Telecommunication Licenses . 42 Table 16. Commercial Telecommunications Satellite Systems’ Design Life. .46 Table 17. NOAA Remote Sensing Licenses. 48 Table 18. Commercial Remote Sensing Systems. 49 Table 19. NASA Commercial Crew and Cargo Awards. .57 Table 20. Small Satellite Mass Classes . 65 Table 21. Micro and Smaller Satellites Launch in 2003-2012 . 65 Table 22. Payload and Launch Projections . .67 Table 23. Distribution of Payload Masses in Near-Term Manifest. 69 Table 24. Distribution of Launches among Market Segments. 70 Table 25. Historical Addressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched. 71 Table 26. Historical Unaddressable Commercial GSO Satellites Launched . 76 Table 27. Historical Payloads and Launches . 83 Table 28. Historical NGSO Payload and Launch Activities. 84 Table 29. Mass Classes for GSO and NGSO Payloads. .85 Table 30. Secondary NGSO Payloads Launched Commercially. 88 • iii • Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation List of Figures Figure 1. Combined 2013 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecasts. 1 Figure 2. 2013 GSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast. .2 Figure 3. Projected NGSO Launches from 2013-2022. 3 Figure 4. Forecast Commercial GSO Satellite and Launch Demand. .5 Figure 5. Addressable and Unaddressable Satellites since 2004. .8 Figure 6. Total Satellite Mass Launched per Year and Average Mass per Satellite. 10 Figure 7. Trends in Satellite Mass Class Distribution . 11 Figure 8. Dual Manifesting and Launch Demand . .12 Figure 9. Comparison of Annual Forecasts: 2004-2013. 14 Figure 10. Realization Factor. .16 Figure 11. Distribution of Forecasted Launched by Payload Segment and Vehicle Size . .35 Figure 12. Commercial NGSO Launch History and Projected Launch Plans. .36 Figure 13. Commercial Telecommunications Launch History and Projected Launch Plans . 39 Figure 14. Publicly Reported Globalstar Annual Revenue. 43 Figure 15. Publicly Reported Iridium Annual Revenue . .44 Figure 16. Publicly Reported ORBCOMM Annual Revenue . .44 Figure 17. Commercial Remote Sensing Launch History and Projected Launch Plans. .47 Figure 18. Commercial Cargo and Crew Transportation Services Launch History and Projected Launch Plans. .55 Figure 19. Forecast of COTS, CRS. and Commercial Crew Missions. .56 Figure 20. Other Commercially Launched Satellites Launch History and Projected Launch Plans . 61 Figure 21. Technology Test and Demonstration Launch History and Projected Launch Plans . 64 Figure 22. Microsatellites and Nanosatellites Launched in 2003-2012. .66 Figure 23. Microsatellites and Nanosatellites Launched by Vehicle, 2003-2012 . .66 Figure 24. Payload Projections. .68 Figure 25. Launch Projections. 69 Figure 26. Launch Vehicle Projections . .71 • iv • • 1 • 2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) have prepared forecasts of global demand for commercial space launch services for the 10-year period from 2014 through 2023. The 2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts report is in two sections: • The COMSTAC 2014 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Forecast, which projects demand for commercial satellites that operate in GSO and the resulting commercial launch demand to GSO; and • The FAA’s 2014 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non- Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO), which projects commercial launch demand for satellites to NGSO, such as low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), elliptical (ELI) orbits, and external (EXT) trajectories beyond orbits around the Earth. Together, the COMSTAC and FAA forecasts project an average annual demand of 30.1 commercial space launches worldwide from 2014 through 2023, down from 31.2 launches in the 2013 forecasts. The reports project an average of 16.3 commercial GSO launches and 13.8 NGSO launches for 2014 through 2023. Figure 1 shows the combined 2013 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast. Table 1 shows the number of payloads and launches projected from 2014 through 2023. It is important to distinguish between forecast demand and the number of satellites actually launched. Launch vehicle and satellite programs are complex, and susceptible to delays, which generally.