Journal of Political Inquiry at New York University, Spring 2014 Issue POWER SHIFTS IN THE CITY OF MILAN: An Analysis Using Selectorate Theory Elia Francesco Nigris Introduction try to understand, within the settings of the In this paper, I will be using Selectorate Theory model, how a change in Selectorate Theory to carry out a the electoral law in 1993 might have comparative analysis of the 1990, 1993, contributed to a lasting shift in political 2006, 2011 municipal elections in the city of power in the city of Milan, through the use Milan.1 I have selected these four electoral of official electoral data, while the political cycles for specific reasons. In 1990, local shift of 2011 was simply caused by Ms. elections in Italy were held with a purely Moratti’s inability to keep her Winning proportional system, in which the mayor Coalition intact. I also intend to show that a was not directly elected by the population; change in the mechanisms that determine the 1993 municipal elections were the first how leaders are elected in democratic ones in which Italians voted with a new settings may have an effect on important electoral law (Legge n. 81, 1993), allowing parameters within Selectorate Theory, such them to directly elect a person to the office as the Loyalty Norm (more on what it is and of mayor (specifics of the electoral this means will be detailed later in this mechanisms will be described later) and the paper) and voters’ turnout, which in turn first one in which a right wing candidate may impact electoral results. became mayor of Milan since Italy became a Republic in 1946. I also deem interesting to The City of Milan compare results from the 2006 and 2011 On May 29th 2011, Giuliano Pisapia, elections, the two most recent elections, in an independent supported by a center-left which Ms. Moratti, Milan’s mayor from coalition was elected mayor of the city of 2006 to 2011, was able to win a first term in Milan, the business capital of Italy and the 2006, but could not win re-election in 2011, capital of the Region of Lombardy. Milan is with the ones that took place in 1990 and also the capital city of the Province of Milan 1993. The scope of this analysis will be to and the second largest city in Italy, with a population of 1,366,409 (Comune di Milano, 1 2012). Its metropolitan region is the largest Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, in the nation and the seventh largest in the Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow, The Logic of Political Survival, Cambridge, MA.: MIT Press, 2003 1 Journal of Political Inquiry at New York University, Spring 2014 Issue European Union, with a total population of The Republic of Italy is a unitary 4,275,216, as of 2012 (Eurostat, 2012). parliamentary republic. However, the central Giuliano Pisapia is a former lawyer, government is not the only source of power: who had served in the Italian Chamber of as defined by the Italian Constitution, Italy Deputies for ten years, from 1996 to 2006, has different forms of local government, as an independent with the party Communist who have specific authority in their confines Refoundation (CR); the Italian Communist (L.cost. 18 ottobre 2001, n. 3). These Party (PCI), the strongest communist party autonomous entities are Municipalities, in any NATO country during the Cold War, Provinces, Metropolitan Cities and Regions. traditionally elected some non-politicians Regions are the biggest and the most from the “civic world” to public office, powerful forms of local government. They allowing them to vote independently have total authority to produce legislation in (Valluari, 2013); CR, born from the ashes of certain constitutionally defined areas, on the PCI, continued this tradition. which the central government cannot When Mr. Pisapia won the elections legislate. Although they have yet to become in 2011, his main opponent was Ms. Letizia “operative”, Metropolitan Cities have been Moratti, an incumbent one-term mayor, mentioned in the Constitution, since it came supported by a center-right coalition. She into effect in 1948, and their authority was had been Minister of Education, Universities later clarified by ordinary law. They are and Research in President Berlusconi’s supposed to be entities with great authority governments from 2001 to 2006 and was on big metropolitan areas, whose power and formerly a businesswoman. Mr. Pisapia’s autonomy would be greater than the ones victory was somewhat unexpected and had Provinces have. However, no official major consequences on Italy’s national Metropolitan Cities exist today and, at the stage. Silvio Berlusconi, then President of moment, Regions are divided into Provinces the Italian Council, had lost the city of and Provinces into Municipalities, the Milan for the first time since he decided to lowest form of local government. The city of run for public office, in 1994: the city of Milan is therefore a form of local Milan had always been the symbol of his government itself and it will be the focus of political power until then. Mr. Pisapia’s this paper. From now on, I will refer to the victory marked the beginning of city or municipality of Milan, simply as Berlusconi’s political decline: later that year, Milan. he was forced to resign from the premiership and he has just recently been voted out of Political History the Senate and probably from Italian As I hinted earlier, it is possible to politics, after being convicted for tax fraud. divide Milan’s, as well as Italy’s, political history after the end of World War II, into A Brief Contextualization three blocks. The first one, known as the “First Republic”, went from 1946 to 1993; 2 Journal of Political Inquiry at New York University, Spring 2014 Issue during the “First Republic” only members of the biggest opposition party in the rest of the the Italian Socialist Party or of the Italian country. Social-Democratic Party have been elected After 1992, however, Italy’s political Mayor of Milan. The second one, fittingly scenario radically changed. With the arrest known as the “Second Republic”, went from of Mario Chiesa, a member of the Italian 1993 to 2011: in every local election that Socialist Party and a leader of the party in took place in the 18 years of “Second Milan, on February 17, 1992, Republic” the people of Milan consistently “Tangentopoli” (translatable in English as elected conservatives as their “sindaco”. “Bribesville”) officially began. 2 The third “era”, the current one, started in “Tangentopoli” is the name journalists gave 2011. to the biggest corruption scandal in the As previously pointed out, since the history of the country. It led to a high end of the fascist dictatorship in 1945, up number of arrests of elected and past public until 1993, the people did not directly elect officials all over the country and the scandal Mayors in Italian cities. The resident literally dissolved some of the biggest population only voted for their parties in the country: namely the Italian representatives in the City Council with a Socialist Party and the Christian Democracy. proportional system (Legge n. 84, 1951 et Italians stopped trusting politicians and Decreto del Presidente della Repubblica n. political power shifted from the old parties 570, 1960) and then it was up to the to newly born political formations. In Milan, members of the assembly to elect the new for example, it went from the hands of the mayor. Moreover, since Italy has historically Socialist Party to more conservative parties. operated a multiparty system, in which no This is why, in the 1993 elections, the first political force was usually able to win more ones in which Italians directly elected their than 50% of the votes, the creation of a post- mayors, Marco Formentini, a member of a election coalition was often required to form new born far right, populist, anti-system and majorities at any level. Hence, during the secessionist political movement, the “First Republic”, the Socialist Party and the “Northern League”, defeated his center-left Social-democratic Party, who were strong opponent, Nando Dalla Chiesa; Mr. political allies (at least locally), consistently Formentini hence served a four year term as required other allies in order to have a the first non-socialist mayor of Milan, since majority. Therefore, for the larger part of the 1945, and although he had had previous ties second half of the 20th century, they had to with the Italian Socialist Party and the choose to form an alliance with either the Christian Democracy in the 1970s (Gaspari Christian Democracy, the party that had led et al., 2009), he claimed that he “ran away the Italian government, almost without [from politics] because things smelled fishy. interruption from 1945 to 1992 or with the Italian Communist Party, which hovered 2 Biagi, Enzo. Era Ieri. Milan, IT: Rizzoli consistently around 20% in Milan and was Editore, 2005. 3 Journal of Political Inquiry at New York University, Spring 2014 Issue There was a dust cloud set to destroy our different reasons, that will be analyzed later corrupt political establishment that was on, Ms. Moratti lost the race, in a runoff about to hit us”3. In 1997, after four years as against Mr. Pisapia, currently the Mayor of mayor, Mr. Formentini ran again, but lost Milan and the first non-conservative Mayor badly to Gabriele Albertini, a more of the city since 1993. moderate conservative backed by Silvio Berlusconi; Mr. Albertini was able to win in The Electoral System a runoff against Aldo Fumagalli, who was I will now explain, in detail, how supported by a progressive coalition.