COAST ROAD WUJAL WUJAL TO CAPE TRIBULATION UPGRADE Economic and Social Impact Ref: J2938V3 March 2018 CUMMINGS ECONOMICS WS (Bill) Cummings Cummings Economics PO Box 2148 CAIRNS QLD 4870 T: 07 4031 2888 M: 0418 871 011 E: [email protected] W: www.cummings.net.au COAST ROAD - Wujal Wujal to Cape Tribulation Upgrade Economic and Social Impact Contents Pg SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 General ......................................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 9 1.3 Timing ........................................................................................................................................... 9 1.4 Benefit Cost Analysis Parameters ............................................................................................. 9 1.5 Accuracy ..................................................................................................................................... 10 2. THE PROJECT ........................................................................................................................................ 12 2.1 General ....................................................................................................................................... 12 3. BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................................ 13 3.1 Local Government Areas .......................................................................................................... 13 3.2 The Communities Directly Affected ......................................................................................... 13 3.2.1 Main Communities Affected ................................................................................................. 13 3.2.2 Other Communities & Areas Affected .................................................................................. 17 3.3 History of Road Development in the Area .............................................................................. 17 3.4 Previous Reports ....................................................................................................................... 19 4. EXISTING TRAFFIC .................................................................................................................................. 21 5. CAPITAL MAINTENANCE COSTS .............................................................................................................. 23 5.1 Capital Costs .............................................................................................................................. 23 5.1.1 Proposed upgrading ............................................................................................................. 23 5.1.2 Proposed upgrading plus additional safety works ................................................................ 23 5.2 Maintenance Costs .................................................................................................................... 23 5.3 Net Capital Costs ....................................................................................................................... 23 6. TRAFFIC IMPACTS ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................................. 25 6.1 Distance Savings ....................................................................................................................... 25 6.2 Ferry Costs ................................................................................................................................. 25 6.3 Current Travel Speeds and Times ........................................................................................... 26 6.4 Other Factors ............................................................................................................................. 27 6.5 Travel Time Savings when Sealed ........................................................................................... 27 6.6 Impacts on Residential Traffic ................................................................................................. 29 6.7 Impacts on Business Traffic ..................................................................................................... 30 6.8 Impacts on Tourism Traffic ...................................................................................................... 30 6.8.1 Tourism Appeal .................................................................................................................... 30 6.8.2 Tourism Vehicles General .................................................................................................... 30 6.8.3 Tourism Rental Car Operators ............................................................................................. 31 6.8.4 Impacts on Heavy Vehicles .................................................................................................. 31 6.9 Overall Estimated Traffic Increases ........................................................................................ 32 March 2018 Ref: J2938V3 Page 2/60 COAST ROAD - Wujal Wujal to Cape Tribulation Upgrade Economic and Social Impact 7. BENEFIT COST ANALYSIS INPUTS ............................................................................................................ 33 7.1 Project Period and Residual Values and Lead-in Period ...................................................... 33 7.2 Discount Rate............................................................................................................................. 33 7.3 Underlying Growth Rates ......................................................................................................... 33 7.4 Treatment of Additional Generated and Diverted Traffic ...................................................... 35 7.5 Travel Time and Vehicle Operating Cost Parameters ............................................................ 36 7.6 Travel Time Savings Per Vehicle ............................................................................................. 36 7.7 Estimation of Travel Time Savings .......................................................................................... 37 7.8 Estimation of Benefits of Elimination of Creek Crossing Holdups due to Flooding .......... 38 7.9 Vehicle Operating Costs (including fuel) Per Vehicle ........................................................... 38 7.10 Estimation of Vehicle Operating Cost Savings ...................................................................... 38 7.11 Net Present Value of Travel Time Savings and Vehicle Operating Costs ........................... 41 7.12 Safety .......................................................................................................................................... 41 7.13 Other Economic Benefits – Cook Shire and Wujal Wujal ...................................................... 42 7.13.1 Economic Development Benefits ....................................................................................... 42 7.13.2 Wider Economic Benefits ................................................................................................... 43 7.14 Social Benefits ........................................................................................................................... 44 7.15 Environmental Benefits ............................................................................................................ 44 8. IMPACTS ON OTHER COMMUNITIES .......................................................................................................... 47 8.1 General ....................................................................................................................................... 47 8.2 Daintree/Cape Tribulation Area ................................................................................................ 47 8.2.1 General ................................................................................................................................. 47 8.2.2 Impact on Road Traffic in the Daintree/Cape Tribulation Area ............................................ 47 8.2.3 Impact on Cape Tribulation Area Tourism ........................................................................... 48 8.2.4 Daintree River Ferry Capacity .............................................................................................. 49 8.2.5 Impacts Cape Tribulation Area North of the Daintree River ................................................. 50 8.2.6 Impacts Douglas Shire South of the Daintree River............................................................. 51 8.2.7 Regional Impact.................................................................................................................... 52 9. BENEFIT COST ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................... 53 9.1 Benefit Cost Analysis ...............................................................................................................