Earth Tech, Inc. Kenosha-Racine-Milwaukee Commuter Rail Extension Environmental Impact Statement & Project Development Phase Ridership Forecasting Report in association with: and American Design Bay Ridge Consulting Connetics Transportation Group Heritage Research, Inc. Martinsek & Associates Valerie Kretchmer Associates Prepared for: SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION September 2007 KRM Alternatives Analysis EIS and Project Development Phase RIDERSHIP FORECASTING REPORT Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................9 II. MARKET ANALYSIS........................................................................................10 II.1. DEFINITION AND SIZE OF THE KRM CORRIDOR TRAVEL MARKET ............11 II.2. POPULATION ALONG THE KRM CORRIDOR MARKET...................................18 II.3. EMPLOYMENT WITHIN THE KRM CORRIDOR.................................................21 II.4. JOBS HOUSING RELATIONSHIPS ....................................................................24 II.5. ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE KRM CORRIDOR...................26 II.6. CENSUS JOURNEY-TO-WORK ANALYSIS.......................................................29 II.7. KRM CORRIDOR ORIGIN-DESTINATION TRAVEL PATTERNS ......................32 II.8. ORIGIN-DESTINATION TRAVEL PATTERNS BETWEEN STATIONS..............40 II.9. METRA SURVEY ANALYSIS...............................................................................44 II.10. REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION HOUSEHOLD SURVEY.......................49 III. MODEL DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................51 III.1. ZONE SYSTEM....................................................................................................51 III.2. HIGHWAY NETWORK.........................................................................................54 III.3. TRANSIT NETWORK...........................................................................................58 III.4. TRIP GENERATION.............................................................................................60 III.5. TRIP DISTRIBUTION AND DESTINATION CHOICE MODEL............................61 III.6. MODE CHOICE MODEL......................................................................................64 III.7. TRIP TABLE DEVELOPMENT.............................................................................74 IV. MODEL VALIDATION .....................................................................................78 IV.1. VALIDATION OF TRIP GENERATION ................................................................79 IV.2. VALIDATION OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION ..............................................................79 IV.3. VALIDATION OF MODE CHOICE .......................................................................81 IV.4. EXTERNAL AUTO TRAVEL.................................................................................82 IV.5. BUS TRANSIT SURVEYS AND COUNTS...........................................................83 IV.6. RAIL TRANSIT SURVEYS AND COUNTS..........................................................84 IV.7. ORIGIN-DESTINATION TRAVEL TIMES ............................................................86 in association with HNTB and Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Page 2 of 262 KRM Alternatives Analysis EIS and Project Development Phase RIDERSHIP FORECASTING REPORT V. MODEL APPLICATION AND RIDERSHIP FORECASTS................................88 V.1. AGGREGATE RAIL RIDERSHIP FORECASTS (ARRF).....................................88 V.2. KEY ASSUMPTIONS ...........................................................................................93 V.3. RIDERSHIP FORECASTS...................................................................................94 V.4. USER BENEFITS ...............................................................................................102 VII. SUMMARY....................................................................................................106 MODEL DEVELOPMENT APPENDICES............................................................107 APPENDIX 1 : TRANSIT ROUTES IN KRM MODEL .....................................................108 APPENDIX 2 : TRIP GENERATION ...............................................................................127 APPENDIX 3 : TRIP DISTANCE DISTRIBUTIONS AND DESTINATION CHOICE MODELS BY PURPOSE ...........................................................135 APPENDIX 4 : ESTIMATION OF WORK AND NON-WORK PURPOSE TRIPS PRODUCED IN ILLINOIS AND ATTRACTED TO WISCONSIN .............146 MODEL VALIDATION APPENDICES..................................................................156 APPENDIX 5 : DISTRIBUTION OF TRIPS BY DISTANCE AND BY CONGESTED TIME: OBSERVED DISTRIBUTIONS IN SEWRPC SURVEY VERSUS MODELED ESTIMATES IN THE KRM MODEL ............................................................................................157 APPENDIX 6 : COMPARISONS OF COUNTY-TO-COUNTY TRAVEL FLOWS ESTIMATES OF HBW TRAVEL VERSUS US CENSUS 2000 JOURNEY TO WORK TRAVEL FLOWS .................................................170 APPENDIX 7 : HBW TRAVEL COMPARISONS OF MODELED COUNTY- COUNTY FLOWS AGAINST OBSERVED FLOWS FROM THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ...........................................................................174 APPENDIX 8 : HBNW TRAVEL COMPARISONS OF MODELED COUNTY- COUNTY FLOWS AGAINST OBSERVED FLOWS FROM THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ...........................................................................176 APPENDIX 9 : NHB TRAVEL COMPARISONS OF MODELED COUNTY- COUNTY FLOWS AGAINST OBSERVED FLOWS FROM THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ...........................................................................178 in association with HNTB and Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Page 3 of 262 KRM Alternatives Analysis EIS and Project Development Phase RIDERSHIP FORECASTING REPORT APPENDIX 10 : MODE CHOICE MODEL VALIDATION ................................................180 APPENDIX 11 : TRAFFIC VOLUME AND TRAFFIC COUNTS FOR KRM CORRIDOR...........................................................................................189 APPENDIX 12 : 2001 SEWRPC BUS TRANSIT ON-BOARD SURVEY ANALYSIS - ALL SURVEYED SYSTEMS ............................................195 APPENDIX 13 : 2001 SEWRPC BUS TRANSIT ON-BOARD SURVEY ANALYSIS - KENOSHA TRANSIT, RACINE URBAN BELLE, AND WISCONSIN COACH LINE KENOSHA-RACINE- MILWAUKEE LINES..............................................................................213 APPENDIX 14 : METRA ON-BOARD ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY ANALYSIS UPN LINE ...........................................................................232 APPENDIX 15 : METRA ON-BOARD ORIGIN-DESTINATION SURVEY ANALYSIS - UPN LINE LAKE COUNTY AND KENOSHA STATIONS.............................................................................................242 APPENDIX 16 : HIGHWAY AND TRANSIT TRAVEL TIME RUNS................................251 APPENDIX 17 : TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM USER BENEFITS ...............................256 in association with HNTB and Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Page 4 of 262 KRM Alternatives Analysis EIS and Project Development Phase RIDERSHIP FORECASTING REPORT Figures and Tables FIGURE 1. KRM CORRIDOR MARKET AREA RELATIVE TO COUNTY BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION ............................................................................................................13 FIGURE 2. KRM CORRIDOR SUPERZONES.................................................................................14 FIGURE 3. TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES AND SUPERZONE CONFIGURATION FOR THE WISCONSIN PORTION OF THE KRM CORRIDOR.............................................16 FIGURE 4. GENERAL VIEW OF CONCENTRIC CATCHMENT AREAS OF STATION SITES .............................................................................................................................17 TABLE 1. 2000 POPULATION IN EACH SUPERZONE DISTRICT ..............................................18 FIGURE 5. POPULATION DENSITY IN THE KRM CORRIDOR.....................................................20 TABLE 2. POPULATION TRENDS IN THE KRM REGION ...........................................................21 TABLE 3. EMPLOYMENT AND EMPLOYMENT DENSITIES FOR THE KRM MARKET AREA..............................................................................................................................22 FIGURE 6. EMPLOYMENT DENSITY IN THE KRM CORRIDOR...................................................23 TABLE 4. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN THE KRM REGION .........................................................24 TABLE 5. KRM CORRIDOR AND THE REGION...........................................................................25 TABLE 6. COMPARISONS OF JOBS-HOUSING STATISTICS IN THE KRM MARKET AREA..............................................................................................................................26 TABLE 7. HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND VEHICLE OWNERSHIP.................................................27 FIGURE 7. HOUSEHOLDS WITH NO VEHICLES IN THE KRM CORRIDOR................................28 TABLE 8. COUNTY-TO-COUNTY JOURNEY-TO-WORK TRAVEL PATTERNS .........................31 TABLE 9. COUNTY-TO-COUNTY WORK TRIPS..........................................................................32 TABLE 10. NUMBER OF WORKERS TRAVELING WITHIN THE KRM CORRIDOR MARKET AREA..............................................................................................................35 TABLE 11. NUMBER OF WORKERS TRAVELING WITHIN THE KRM CORRIDOR