Newsletters Volume 1 January 2012 – January 2013 Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 4 No. 1, January 10, 2012 ............................................................................................................................. 5 No. 2, January 17, 2012 ........................................................................................................................... 10 No. 3, January 24, 2012 ........................................................................................................................... 16 No. 4, February 1, 2012 ........................................................................................................................... 20 No. 5, February 7, 2012 ........................................................................................................................... 23 No. 6, February 7, 2012 ........................................................................................................................... 30 No. 7, February 21, 2012......................................................................................................................... 36 No. 8, February 28, 2012......................................................................................................................... 41 No. 9, March 6, 2012 ............................................................................................................................... 47 No. 10, March 13, 2012........................................................................................................................... 51 No. 11, March 21, 2012........................................................................................................................... 56 No. 12, March 27, 2012........................................................................................................................... 61 No. 13, April 3, 2012 ............................................................................................................................... 65 No. 14, April 10, 2012 ............................................................................................................................. 68 No. 15, April 10, 2012 ............................................................................................................................. 72 No. 16, April 24, 2012 ............................................................................................................................. 80 No. 17, May 1, 2012 ................................................................................................................................ 89 No. 18, May 8, 2012 ................................................................................................................................ 94 No. 19, May 15, 2012 .............................................................................................................................. 98 No. 20, May 22, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 105 No. 21, May 29, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 111 No. 22, June 4, 2012 .............................................................................................................................. 115 No. 23, June 12, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 119 No. 24, June 19, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 125 No. 25, June 26, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 130 No. 26, July 3, 2012 ............................................................................................................................... 136 No. 28, July 10, 2012 ............................................................................................................................. 139 No. 29, July 17, 2012 ............................................................................................................................. 142 No. 30, July 24, 2012 ............................................................................................................................. 147 No. 30, July 31, 2012 ............................................................................................................................. 150 No. 31, August 7, 2012 .......................................................................................................................... 156 No. 33, August 21, 2012 ........................................................................................................................ 161 No. 34, August 28, 2012 ........................................................................................................................ 164 No. 35, Sept. 4, 2012 ............................................................................................................................. 172 No. 36, September 11, 2012 ................................................................................................................. 176 No. 37, Sept. 18, 2012 ........................................................................................................................... 182 No. 38, September 25, 2012 ................................................................................................................. 185 No. 39, October 2, 2012 ........................................................................................................................ 188 No. 40, October 9, 2012 ........................................................................................................................ 191 No. 41, October 16, 2012 ...................................................................................................................... 196 No. 42, October 23, 2012 ...................................................................................................................... 199 No. 43, October 30, 2012 ...................................................................................................................... 202 No. 44, November 6, 2012 .................................................................................................................... 205 No. 45, November 13, 2012 .................................................................................................................. 209 No. 46, November 20, 2012 .................................................................................................................. 212 No. 47, December 4, 2012 .................................................................................................................... 216 No. 48, December 11, 2012 .................................................................................................................. 219 No. 49, December 18, 2012 .................................................................................................................. 222 No. 50, January 8, 2013 ......................................................................................................................... 225 No. 51, January 15, 2013....................................................................................................................... 228 Introduction AirInsight started its newsletter series on January 10th 2012. We started with a small number of people on a mailing list. But this has grown remarkably. It was never our intent to have a large readership. We wanted the most influential people in the industry. Initially we speculated that if we could reach the top 500 people in aerospace we would have achieved this goal. More than a year later the readership exceeded our goal. We are not certain if the “top 500” goal has been achieved, but we are comfortable that we reach most of the people we want to reach. Thank you for your interest in our views and work. We are forunate to work and interact with truly intelligent people in the industry whose enquiring minds are changing the way people travel. If it was not for them, this would be just another boring job. They certainly make sure it is not. As you read through our newsletters you will see that sometimes we got it right and often we got it wrong. It is impossible to have all the information when we opined. As analysts we do the best we can with the information we have. Here is a compilation of our first ear’s worth of newsletters. In appreciation, Scott Hamilton Ernest Arvai Addison Schonland AirInsight || Analysis of Current Events No. 1, January 10, 2012 How Bankruptcy Will Help American Airlines American Airlines and its affiliates and subsidiaries are now bankrupt. There continues to be debate over the benefits of the filing. General agreement is that AA will shed costs by dumping its pension plan, as did the other US legacy carriers, restructure debt and dump aircraft. American Eagle will be radically restructured. There appears to be a general misunderstanding on some other key elements. MD-80s will be the main target of financial restructuring and contract rejections. Although AA drove down rates and debt costs on all aircraft following 9/11 in