The Politics of International Law Department of Political Science (International Relations) Master Thesis Political Science, Specialization International Relations Iran Nuclear Challenge Name: S. Pezjman Mortezayi Student Number: 10434712 E-mail: [email protected] Thesis Supervisor/1st Reader: Dr. Sara Kendall Thesis Supervisor/2nd Reader: Dr. P.E. (Polly) Pallister Wilkins Date: 30-April-2014 Table of Contents Page Map I: The Islamic Republic of Iran 3 Map II: The Middle East 4 Map III: Iranian Nuclear Facilities 5 List of abbreviations 6 Abstract 7 Acknowledgements 8 CHAPTER 1: Iran nuclear program 9 1.1. Introduction 9 1.2. Objective 10 1.3. Research Question 11 1.4. (Sub) Questions 12 1.5. Methodology 12 1.6. Theoretical Framework 13 1.7. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Non-Proliferations Treaty (NPT) 17 1.8. Conclusion 22 CHAPTER 2: The Iranian nuclear motive and purpose 23 2.1. Introduction 23 2.2. The Iranian nuclear motivations 23 2.3. The Iranian nuclear purpose 25 2.4. Iran previous presidents nuclear program process 28 2.5. The nuclear program since president Rouhani 32 2.6. Conclusion 34 CHAPTER 3: The Position of different Actors, Diplomacy and Sanctions 34 3.1. Introduction 34 3.2. Iran’s approach to the west & A few statements that Iran has no plans to acquire nuclear weapons 36 3.3. Russian view towards the Iran nuclear program 37 3.3.1. China’s view on Iran’s nuclear program 38 1 3.3.2. The policies of China & Russia toward Iranian nuclear program 39 3.4. The position of The Gulf Cooperation Council States (GCCS) 39 3.5. Iranian nuclear program and US 42 3.6. Iranian nuclear program and EU 44 3.7. Iranian nuclear program and Israel 50 3.8. Diplomacy and Sanctions 52 3.9. Conclusion 55 Conclusions and General Findings 56 Bibliography 60 Appendix 1: Full text of Iran's letter to IAEA over Nuclear Fuel Swap 73 2 Map I. The Islamic Republic of Iran Source: http://www.mapsofworld.com/iran/ 3 Map II. The Middle East Source: http://www.mapsofworld.com/middle-east-map.html 4 Map III. Iranian Nuclear Facilities Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-2101691/Iran-dares- west-flaunts-nuke-power-Oil-prices-touch-month-high-120-barrel-supply-worries.html 5 List of abbreviations Abbreviations Meaning AEOI Atomic Energy Organization of Iran AOE Assembly of Experts CfSR Center for Strategic Research EC Expediency Council EU European Union GCCS the Gulf Cooperation Council States IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IISS the International Institute for Strategic Studies IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRI Islamic Republic of Iran MAD Mutually Assured Destruction MOIS Ministry of Intelligence and Security MKO Mojahaedin- e Khalq Organization NCRI the National Council of Resistance Iran NPT Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons NTI the Nuclear Threat Initiative PDKI the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan RAIOH Research Association for Iranian Oral History SNSC the Supreme National Security Council UN United Nations UNSC the United Nations Security Council US United States of America WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction 6 Abstract Despite the fact that nuclear energy has a plethora of advantages including making contribution towards lower price, cleaner environment, assisting the development of industry, agriculture and technology and electricity production in comparison with other energy sources however, it suffers from a disadvantage too. A nuclear power plant is an object whether it is for peaceful purposes or threat. Iran's nuclear energy is a matter for the international community. They are concerned whether Iran's plan is peaceful or is an attempt to achieve nuclear bomb. There are diverse opinions on the Iranian atomic energy plan. States and researchers as well, disagree on Iran's development of the atomic energy programs which resulted in a tremendous suspicion whether Iran's plan is peaceful or not. The present thesis is an attempt to indicate to what extent Iran is a threat for the regional and international community and how it would be possible to regularly, technically and tactically neutralize Iran's nuclear threat which hasn’t had any effective alternative yet. It is quite further development of nuclear program to cease its nuclear activity. The sanctions resulted in noticeable that Iran’s nuclear program brought a new concern to the international community. There had to be a novel way to resolve Iran’s nuclear activities. Sanction and trust are the words which I utilize them as an option. Sanctions have been a penalty against Iranian oil, car industry, petrochemical exports and insurance of transport as a means to devastate the economy and dissuade Iran on Iranian delegations’ returning to the negotiating table. The strengthening of trust among countries in order to facilitate the cessation of the manufacturing of nuclear weapons could be an option to resolve the issue. In this thesis, harder sanctions and cessation of the manufacture of nuclear weapons is emphasized to convince Iran to stay away from attempt to achieve nuclear bomb. Various arguments including; scientists’ opinion, sanction, disagreement about interpretation of the NPT articles, political interest and countries’ technical and political view on the topic will be perceived. Keywords: Iran, Nuclear Weapons, Threat, Security, deterrence, Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). 7 Acknowledgements Hereby, I would like to thank my supervisor Sara Kendall for her comments, advices, tolerance, academic expertise and guidance. I feel privileged to have had her as my supervisor. Furthermore, my special thanks goes to my dear brother, Salah Mortezayi receives large votes of thanks and my deepest appreciation for his enduring support in writing this thesis. Husseini’s family especially, Mrs. Mahvash Zardoshti. 8 Chapter 1: Iran’s nuclear program 1.1. Introduction It has been more than four decades since the Iranian government has claimed that they have achieved a nuclear program, but this achievement has never reached its end. The ambition to make Iran a nuclear state began under the government of Shah (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi), but it failed to achieve the goal. The Islamic revolution in 1979 was one of the main reasons behind its failure. The Islamic Revolution collapsed the government of Shah and established a completely different Iran with different policy. The Islamic Republic had begin to work on Nuclear policy the year after the revolution and continued working towards the beginning of the end of the Iran-Iraq War under President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Today the Iranian nuclear program is one of the complicated issues in the international arena and many countries suspect its development. A nuclear Iran raised a serious tension among different states. It is a challenge either for peace or security. Those countries whom are skeptical about the development of Iran’s nuclear program are U.S.A., EU states and Israel as well as Gulf Cooperation Council States (GCCS) which consider Iran’s nuclear program as a step towards an atomic bomb. And this is unacceptable for the International Community, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), U.S. and many more. Nuclearization of Iran can destabilize the region as North Korea destabilizes Pacific region and Iran follows the same policy. Hereby, the international community suspects Iran to violate the Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Article II and III. Moreover, Iran violates the international law of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). The Iranian authority claims that its nuclear ambition is just for domestic peaceful purposes and energy use. Islamic Republic of Iran feels obliged to pursue the IAEA under the Non- Proliferation Treaty as a legal process. The collaboration is extraordinarily important for Iran to cooperate with the Agency. In contrast, Iran expects mutual respect from the Agency. It was noted in the Iranian letter to IAEA on Monday June 13, 2010: “Our commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and related materials that we stress the rights of all members, including the Islamic Republic of Iran's peaceful use and without discrimination, to 9 develop research, production and use of nuclear energy (as well as the nuclear fuel cycle including enrichment activities) are recalled” (Iran Embassy in Denmark, June 13, 2010). Iran violated Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) according to IAEA´s report. The report of November 2003 of GOV/2003/75, stated that the Iranian government broke the IAEA regulations. Moreover, the Iranian government violated both Articles of NPT, namely articles II and III, and the rules which came from G-3 obligated Iran to stop the development of nuclear program (IAEA, 2 June, 2008) directly. Furthermore, Iran has violated the other articles for example Article 45 of IAEA of Safeguards agreement. IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano (IAEA, 2010) argued in his report of February 2010 “Iran’s failure to notify the IAEA of its decision to enrich uranium to a maximum of 20% uranium” (IAEA, 2010). Article 45 of that agreement entails and requires the government of Iran of notifying the IAEA “with design information in respect of a modification relevant for safeguards purposes sufficiently in advance for the safeguards procedures to be adjusted when necessary,” according to IAEA Director General Amano’s report, which describes Iran’s enrichment decision as “clearly relevant for safeguards purposes” (IAEA, 2010). The previous researchers concentrated on a few articles of IAEA and did not focus on how to create confidence for the IAEA members to pursue Regulations. The confidence must be mutual rather than powerful countries determine it and as a result the other countries feel threatened. In this thesis, what should be done to tackle the suspicion and distrust of the countries that start nuclear activity is emphasized. This thesis consists of the following structure: in chapter one, the applicability of existing international low is addressed.