Forecasting Realignment: An Analysis of the 1993 Canadian Federal Election Michael Rawson Department of Political Science Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Faculty of Graduate Studies The University of Western Ontario August 1997 OMichael Rawson 1997 National Library Bibliothèque nationale I*m of Canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibiiographic Services services bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395. nie Wellington Ottawa ON KIA ON4 Ottawa ON K1A ON4 Canada Canada Your fi& Votre reIèrmce Our W Notre reiérenw The author has granted a non- L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive licence dowing the exclusive permettant à la National Library of Canada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distribute or seil reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou copies of ths thesis in microfom, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic formats. la forme de microfiche/nlm, de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantid extracts fiom it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author' s ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. ABSTRACT The 1993 federal election will be rernembered as an extrernely significant event in Canadian political history. The incumbent Conservative government was reduced to two seats, while rwo regionally based and ideologically oriented third parties, the Bloc Québécois and Reform Party, captured Otficial Opposition and third pany status respectively. Focusing on the Reform Party and Bloc Québécois, this thesis attempts to predict whether the 1993 federai election marked the beginning of a period of electoral realignment or merely a period of temporary dealignment. The consequences of this study are extremely significant for the Canadian pany system, as a realignment would mean that one or both of the Reform Party and Bloc Québécois will continue to attract stable and durable support over the long-tem. Alternatively, a dealignment of the party system would indicate that the success of the two new parties is temporary and traditional patterns of electoral support will reemerge. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis could not have been written without the advice. cnticism, and insight provided throughout its preparation by my advisor, Professor Michael Lusztig. I would like to thank Professor Sid Noel for his advice and Professor Ian Brodie for his assistance. I would like to acknowledge Catherine and Ellion Gnidec, whose advice and support proved invaluable. My sincere thanks also go out to my brother and sisters. I alone am responsible for the contents of this thesis, and any errors contained within. This thesis is dedicated to my parents, whose unwavering support throughout my years of study has assisted me tremendously; 1 am extremely grateful. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Certificate of Examination ii Abstract iii Acknowledgments iv Table of Contents v Chapter One: Theoreticai Foundation Regarding Political Realignments 1 Introduction 1 Voter Alignments in Canada 4 A Canadian Application of the Theones of Key and Bumham 8 The 'High-Risk' Strategy 16 Theory Regarding Third Party Failure and Success 22 Conclusion 28 Chapter Two: Western Canada and the Reform Party 35 The Development of Alienation in Western Canada 36 The Rise of the Reform Party of Canada 43 Realignrnent in Western Canada 46 Conclusion 56 Chapter Three: Quebec and the Bloc Québécois The Development of Alienation in Quebec The Rise of the Bloc Québécois Realignment in Quebec Conclusion Chapter Four: Realignment of the Canadian Party System- Conclusion 92 Surnrnary of arguments presented in Chapters Two and Three 92 Future Areas of Study 97 Bibliography Vita 1 CHAPTER ONE- Political Alignments: Theoretical Foundation The 1993 Canadian federal election appears to have been a watershed election that will be, undoubtedly, the subject of intense consideration well into the future. Afler captunng successive majority governments in 1984 and 1988, the Conservative Party was decimated in the 1993 federal election. The Bloc Québécois, with its election to Official Opposition, made history as the first separatist party to capture seats in Parliament, while the Reform Party rose from Western Canada to capture third party status. The events of 1993 have been reinforced by the 1997 federal election, with the Reform Party and Bloc Québécois exchanging Officia1 Opposition and third party status. This thesis will attempt to predict whether the 1993 Canadian federal election was a realignment- - whereby the Liberal, Bloc Québécois, and Reform parties cm be expected ?O continue as major political parties- - or a dealignment - - indicating an intemption of the stable party equilibrium From ConMeration. Particular attention will be paid to the Western Provinces and Quebec in order to assess how these regions, and the central issues of the time, factor into the realignrnent. Presently, there lacks a clear explanation for the events of the 1993 election. It is through this study that an explanation of the dynamics behind the 1 993 electoral realignment will be gained. Once these goals have been achieved, this thesis will offer some insight into the future prospects of the Reform Party and Bloc Québécois and the possibility of a new party system. The topic of political alignments has been well documented in American academic literaîure. In "A Theory of Critical Elections," Key examines the Arnerican electoral realignrnents of 1896, 1928 and 1932 with the intention of providing "an orientation for an attempt to formulate a concept of one type ofelection- based 2 on American experience- which rnight be built into a more general theory of elections."' Key provides the foundation for further audy regarding the electord anomalies that have occurred several times in Amencan history. Burnham's Critical Elections and the Mains~rinesof American Politics expands on Key's thoughts, providing a comprehensive explanation of electoral realignments and their importance. The success of the Liberai Party in the 1993 Canadian federai election, afier two successive Progressive Conservative victorig was overshadowed by the unprecedented gains of the regionally based and ideologically oriented Refonn Party and Bloc Québécois. The Bloc Québécois drew ail of its support from Quebec with the goais of protecting the province's interests in Ottawa and pursuing sovereignty. The Reform Party captured rnost of its support, and al1 but one of its seats, from the Western provinces by advocating a right wing economic platform and O pposing Quebec' s dernand t hat it be granted stnrr~tparticthir within the Canadian federation. Overall, the Liberai Party gained a majority government capturing 177 seats, the Bloc Québécois formed Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition with fifty- four seats and the Reform Party managed to gain fifty-two seats and third party status. The Conservatives fell from the goveming party with 169 seats to a mere two seats, losing official party status. The New Democratic Party (NDP) suffered a sirnilar fate as it was reduced to nine seats. Forbes recognizes the drarnatic change in the Canadian political landscape when he argues: The old brokerage politics had clearly broken down. The heart of it had been a tacit agreement arnong the leaders of Canada's federal parties to manage French-English relations outside the electoral arena. The main parties, including the NDP, had always appealed for suppon on both sides of Canada's great national divide. The 1993 election relegated two of these old brokerage parties to the parliarnentary sidelines. Their places have been taken by two more narrowly based parties, and parliament is now clearly divided dong ethnic or national lines. The Liberals still represent old-style brokerage, but the old system of brokerage policies is at least temporarily suspended." This chapter wiU argue that the 1993 federal election follows the pattern of electoral realignments proposed by Key and Burnham and was the result of a combination of several factors including the severe economic conditions of the 1990s and, more importantly, fatigue and hstration in the electorate fiorn two failed atternpts at constitutional reform: the Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords. As a result, feelings of alienation intensified, particularly in the West and Quebec, which escalated to, recalling Bumham's term, a "flash point." This chapter will begin with a general discussion of voter alignments, followed by an examination of the history of electoral alignments in Canada. The chapter will then apply Key's and Burnham's discussion of critical etections to the Canadian federal election of 1993. While the theories of Key and Bumharn are of centrai importance to this thesis, an explmation for the events of the 1 993 federal election is necessary and, therefore, Lusaig's "High-Risk Strategy" will be exarnined. The "High-Risk Strategy" introduces the notion that Prime Minister Mulroney attempted to achieve an electoral reaiignment that would ensure the continued electoral success of the Conservative Party. Mulroney's failure to achieve this redignment was a critical factor in the events of 1993. Finally, theory regarding the success and failure of third parties will be examined in order to provide insight for chapters two and three which will examine the Reform Party and Bloc Québécois, and the chances for their long-term survival as established parties. 4 Voter Alignments in Canada A conventional discussion on voter alignments centers around two main types of alignments; class and temtonai. Class cieavages occur when individuals who are in similar economic situations vote for the same Party, regardless of their territorial location (for example, lower incorne earners generally voting for the New Democratic Party or high incorne earners usually voting for the Progressive Conservatives) . In this case, sorne voters in the same region or community will have conflicting allegiances.