ARTICLE IN PRESS + MODEL Electoral Studies xx (2007) 1e6 www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud Notes on Recent Elections The July 2006 presidential and congressional elections in Mexico Joseph L. Klesnerà Department of Political Science, Kenyon College, Gambier, OH 43022, USA Received 27 February 2007; accepted 11 April 2007 1. Introduction presidential election after Mexico’s transition to de- mocracy has tested both its electoral institutions and Mexico’s 2 July 2006 presidential election produced the broader commitment of the political elite to elec- a razor-thin margin of victory for Felipe Caldero´n of the toral democracy. National Action Party (PAN), who won by fewer than 235,000 votes out of nearly 42 million cast. A surprise 2. Background nominee of his party, Caldero´n came from far behind in a raucous campaign to edge out the former mayor of In the 2000 presidential election, Vicente Fox of the Mexico City, Andre´s Manuel Lo´pez Obrador of the Co- PAN-led Alliance for Change coalition pulled off an alition for the Good of All (Coalicio´n por el Bien de unexpected defeat of the Institutional Revolutionary Todos, composed of Lo´pez Obrador’s Party of the Dem- Party (PRI) candidate, bringing to an end 71 years of ocratic Revolution, or PRD, and two smaller parties). PRI dominance of the post-revolutionary Mexican However, carrying but 35.9% of the popular vote, Cal- regime. However, Fox’s coattails were not long enough dero´n can hardly claim a mandate. Indeed, Lo´pez Obra- to drag his coalition’s candidates into control of either dor challenged the legitimacy of Caldero´n’s presidency house of the Mexican federal congress, setting the and the democratic character of Mexican institutions by stage for divided government, with no party holding claiming that widespread fraud had been perpetrated a majority in either chamber. And the high expecta- against him during the campaign and on election day. tions with which Fox came to office quickly came to He disputed the announced results legally and mobi- be frustrated, as much by Fox’s political ineptitude lised large rallies to protest the outcome, disrupting in office as by the structural situation of divided Mexico City for weeks after the election. In addition, government (Dresser, 2003; Lawson, 2004). In the results of the congressional elections held the midterm elections for the Chamber of Deputies in same day have left Caldero´n and the PAN without ma- 2003, the PRI and the PRD each led coalitions that jorities in either the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate, gained seats in the lower house at the PAN’s expense. so divided government will continue to challenge the The PRI also won several gubernatorial elections, president for at least the next three years. This first showing that it was far from moribund as an electoral contender. à Tel.: þ1 740 427 5311. In July 2000 Lo´pez Obrador won the second most E-mail address: [email protected] important electoral post in the country, as the head of 0261-3794/$ - see front matter Ó 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2007.04.002 Please cite this article in press as: Joseph L. Klesner, The July 2006 presidential and congressional elections in Mexico, Electoral Stud. (2007), doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2007.04.002 ARTICLE IN PRESS + MODEL 2 Notes on Recent Elections / Electoral Studies xx (2007) 1e6 the Mexico City government.1 This position at the na- party coalitions must nominate presidential candidates. tion’s geographical and political centre gave Lo´pez Presidents serve for a single term and are permanently Obrador the perfect platform on which to build his pres- barred from re-election. idential candidacy for 2006. His government came to be Mexico’s bicameral federal congress includes a Sen- known for ambitious public works projects, particularly ate of 128 members elected for six-year terms. Three road building to relieve traffic problems, and populist senatorial candidates are elected from each of Mexico’s spending programmes, notably the introduction of 32 states: two seats to the party or coalition that wins the a pension programme for seniors. Lo´pez Obrador sur- most votes in that state, and the third to the party in sec- vived an attempt by the PAN and the PRI to impeach ond place. The remaining 32 Senate seats are elected by and indict him for contempt of court with respect to proportional representation from party lists in a single a land disputedin effect a bid to disqualify him from national constituency. Voters cast a single ballot, the the 2006 presidential racedby organising mass demon- vote tallies being used to determine both state and na- strations in Mexico City supporting his case. At the tional seat allocations. beginning of the 2006 campaign, polls offered no evi- The lower house of congress, the Chamber of dence that the impeachment attempt had damaged Deputies, has 500 seats, 300 filled by simple plurality Lo´pez Obrador’s candidacy, as he led the field in all elections, the other 200 elected by proportional repre- pre-election surveys. sentation through a system of closed and blocked (i.e. During the protracted transition to democracy lead- voters cannot change the order of candidates) party lists ing up to the 2000 election, a significant pro-regime, in five equal-sized multi-member districts or ‘regions’. anti-regime cleavage came to dominate Mexican poli- In this mixed system, the party list seats are not com- tics (Moreno, 1998; Klesner, 2005). Once the PRI lost pensatory, unlike for example in the German system. control of the presidency, however, this regime cleavage Parties must register candidates in at least 200 of the diminished significantly in its importance. In its place, 300 districts in order to compete in the election and to grave concerns about the direction of the Mexican de- register party lists for the regional PR seats. Parties velopment model, the country’s relationship with the may list up to 60 candidates simultaneously for district United States, and the breakdown of social order have races and the party lists. Although the parties provide emerged to dominate the issue agenda of the Mexican separate lists for the five multi-member regions, the citizenry. PR seats are allocated according to the proportion of the national vote. As with the Senate, voters cast a single 3. Electoral systems ballot, the tallies then being used to determine both the winners in district races and the party list allocation for Mexico holds presidential and senatorial elections the whole nation.2 every six years on the first Sunday of July; elections The Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), an autonomous for the lower house of congress, the Chamber of Depu- government agency, maintains the national voter regis- ties, which sits for three years, are held simultaneously. try and administers federal elections. Its role includes The Mexican electoral system requires voters to show regulating the campaign practices of parties and candi- a voter identity card at their precinct. Those away dates, and allocating public campaign funds to the from home on election day may visit a ‘special’ polling parties. The individuals who staff polling places are or- place to cast a ballot; depending on how far away from dinary citizens chosen by lot by the IFE and trained to home an absentee voter is (in his electoral district, in his operate the precinct, count the votes, and report the state, or outside of both), he may be able to vote only for results to the IFE on election night. Disputes about elec- the president, for president and senatorial candidates, or toral practices must be taken to the autonomous Federal for those and party list deputy candidates. Electoral Tribunal (commonly known as the TRIFE, The candidate with the simple plurality of popular sometimes as the TEPJF), a specialised electoral court votes wins Mexico’s top executive office; there is no that has handled thousands of disputes over the past de- run-off election. Formally recognised parties and/or cade (Eisenstadt, 2004). 1 The position is known simply as jefe de gobierno, or head of gov- ernment, of the Federal District (DF). Mexico City covers most of the 2 Vote tallies in the PR races exceed those in the district races be- DF, which in most respects is comparable to a state. Thus, the posi- cause the votes of those who cast ballots away from home but within tion shares characteristics with a governor or big city mayor, in this the PR region count only in the proportional component of the case the biggest city in the hemisphere. system. Please cite this article in press as: Joseph L. Klesner, The July 2006 presidential and congressional elections in Mexico, Electoral Stud. (2007), doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2007.04.002 ARTICLE IN PRESS + MODEL Notes on Recent Elections / Electoral Studies xx (2007) 1e6 3 4. Campaign paid advertising that trumpeted the accomplishments of the current administration, not too subtly implying that A year before the election, few observers expected these achievements would be undone by a Lo´pez Obrador Caldero´n to be the PAN nominee. However, he soundly presidency. The IFE eventually forced Fox and Caldero´n defeated Fox’s apparent choice, Interior Minister San- to withdraw both sets of ads, butdalong with Lo´pez tiago Creel, in a primary process. Caldero´n owed his Obrador’s unimpressive responsedthey helped to push nomination in part to his status as a veteran PAN insider Caldero´n into the lead in the polls by early May. (born into a PAN family, Caldero´n previously served as Madrazo sought to steer a middle course on eco- party president and head of the party’s caucus in the nomic policy between the two front-runners, and to sug- Chamber of Deputies), a background sharply contrast- gest that he would bring more responsible leadership, ing with that of Creel, who had come relatively lately but his message failed to convert voters.