Intelligence is not Artificial Why the Singularity is not coming any time soon and other Meditations on the Post-Human Condition and the Future of Intelligence Piero Scaruffi ISBN 978-0-9765531-9-9 All Rights Reserved © 2016 by Piero Scaruffi No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping or by any information storage retrieval system, without the written permission of the author (http://www.scaruffi.com). Your support of the authors’ rights is appreciated. 2 3 Table of Contents What this Book is about ..................................................................... 9 Sociological Background .................................................................. 13 A Brief History of Artificial Intelligence/ Part 1 .................................. 16 Footnotes in the History of Artificial Intelligence............................... 20 A Premise to the History of Artificial Intelligence .............................. 22 Brain Simulation and Intelligence ..................................................... 23 The Body.......................................................................................... 24 Intermezzo: We may Overestimate Brains ....................................... 26 Childhood ......................................................................................... 26 Deep Learning - A brief History of Artificial Intelligence/ Part 2 ........ 27 The Robots are Coming – A Brief History of A.I./ Part 3 .................. 38 Brute-force A.I. ................................................................................. 41 Brute-force A.I. doesn’t Speak ......................................................... 45 Can you hear me? ........................................................................... 52 A Failed Experiment ......................................................................... 56 An Easy Science .............................................................................. 56 Intermezzo and Trivia: the Original App ........................................... 64 Don't be Fooled by the Robot ......................................................... 66 The Curse of the Large Dataset ....................................................... 68 A Consumer's Rant Against the Stupidity of Machines: Reverting Evolution? ........................................................................................ 70 The Singularity as the Outcome of Exponential Progress ................ 72 A Look at the Evidence: A Comparative History of Accelerating Progress........................................................................................... 78 Intermezzo: In Defense of Regress .................................................. 89 Intermezzo: Why Futurists Always Get it Wrong .............................. 95 Jobs in the Age of the Robot – Part 1: What Destroys Jobs ............ 96 Jobs in the Age of the Robot – Part 2: What Creates Jobs ............ 100 Jobs in the Age of the Robot- Part3: The Sharing Economy .......... 107 Jobs in the Age of the Robot – Part 4: The Maid Principle ............. 109 Marketing and Fashion .................................................................. 112 4 Recap .............................................................................................114 Why we need A.I. or The Robots are Coming– Part 2: The Near Future of A.I. or Don't be Afraid of the Machine .............................116 Origins of Singularity Thinking ........................................................123 The Case for Superhuman Intelligence… and against it ................124 What is the Opposite of the Singularity? ........................................130 Intermezzo: The Attention Span .....................................................135 Cognitive Intermezzo: The Origin of Human Intelligence (or of Machine Intelligence?) ...................................................................137 Anthropological Intermezzo: You Are a Gadget .............................137 Existential Intermezzo: You Are an Ad ...........................................138 Semantics ......................................................................................139 The Accelerating Evolution of Machines ........................................147 Non-human Intelligence is Already Here ........................................149 The Consciousness of Super-human Intelligence ..........................152 The Intelligence of Super-human Intelligence ................................153 Intelligent Behavior in Structured Environments .............................154 Intermezzo: Will Intelligent Machines Return to Chaotic Environments? .......................................................................................................161 Another Intermezzo: Disorder is Evolution, Order is Stagnation ....162 Human Obsolescence ....................................................................163 In Defense of Progress: Augmented Intelligence ...........................164 General-purpose Intelligence .........................................................166 The Proliferation of Appliances, Intelligent and not ........................168 Intermezzo: The Resurrection of the Dead .....................................170 Demystifying the Turing Test ..........................................................170 Common Sense..............................................................................171 We actually don’t Think ..................................................................178 Mind Uploading and Digital Immortality ..........................................179 Machine Immortality and the Cloud ................................................183 Corollary: Digital Media Immortality ................................................186 Ethical Intermezzo: The Moral Consequences of Human Immortality .......................................................................................................189 Another Philosophical Intermezzo: Do We Really Want Intelligence at All? .................................................................................................190 5 Religion and the Law of Accelerated Exaggeration ........................ 192 Analog vs Digital ............................................................................ 197 Analog Computation ..................................................................... 202 Teaser: Machine Ethics.................................................................. 204 How not to Build an Artificial General Intelligence – Part 1: The Many- task Mind........................................................................................ 204 How not to Build an Artificial General Intelligence - Part II: Smart, not Deep, Learning .............................................................................. 208 The Timeframe of Artificial General Intelligence ............................ 211 How NOT to Find a Breakthrough .................................................. 213 The Real Breakthrough: Synthetic Biology..................................... 215 Humorous Intermezzo: Bayes and The End of the World .............. 216 The Future of Miniaturization: the Next big Breakthrough? ............ 216 The Real Future of Computing ....................................................... 217 After Machine Inteligence: Machine Creativity – Can Machines do Art? ....................................................................................................... 218 The Moral Issue: Who's Responsible for a Machine's Action? ....... 223 The Dangers of Machine Intelligence: Machine Credibility............. 227 The Dangers of Machine Intelligence: Speed Limits for Machines? ....................................................................................................... 230 The Dangers of Machine Intelligence: Criminalizing Common Sense ....................................................................................................... 231 The Dangers of Machine Intelligence: You Are a Budget .............. 232 The Dangers of Machine Intelligence: Who will get there first?...... 232 Sociological Intermezzo: Humanity without Humanity .................... 233 Transcendental Intermezzo: You are a Robot - The Demise of Free Will ................................................................................................. 234 Transcendental Intermezzo Revised: You are a…? ....................... 236 Why the Singularity is a Waste of Time and Why we Need A.I. – A Call to Action .................................................................................. 236 The Future of Human Creativity ..................................................... 247 Why I am not Afraid of A.I. ............................................................. 250 A Conclusion: Religion in the Age of A.I. ....................................... 253 P.S. What i did not Say .................................................................. 256 6 Appendix: The Dangers of Clouding - Wikipedia as a Force for Evil .......................................................................................................257 Appendix: The Myth of Longevity ...................................................264 Appendix: The Medium is the Brain................................................272 Appendix: The Era of Objects ........................................................277 Appendix: I Ran Out of Space ........................................................279