The Last Straw Food security in the Hindu Kush Himalayas and the additional burden of climate change 1 1 This study was a part of the Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP). HICAP is implemented jointly by ICIMOD, CICERO and GRID-Arendal in collaboration with local partners, and is funded by the Governments of Norway and Sweden. ICIMOD gratefully acknowledges the support of its core donors: the Governments of Afghanistan, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Norway, Pakistan, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. ICIMOD and GRID-Arendal would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No part of this publication may be reproduced for resale or any commercial purposes without prior permission in writing from GRID-Arendal and ICIMOD. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed jointly to [email protected] and [email protected]. ISBN: 978-82-7701-129-5 2 The Last Straw Food security in the Hindu Kush Himalayas and the additional burden of climate change Editorial Team Tiina Kurvits (Editor) Bjørn Kaltenborn (Editor) Sarah Nischalke Bhaskar Karky Matthias Jurek Tor Halfdan Aase Cartography Riccardo Pravettoni 2 3 4 Summary Climate change and increasing global food prices have accentuated the question of whether there will be enough food in the future to feed a growing world population. The latest contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report identify food insecurity as one of the key risks of climate change, potentially affecting all aspects of food security. Climate-related disasters (e.g., floods, droughts and storms) are among the main drivers of food insecurity and markets have shown themselves to be very sensitive to recent extremes in climate. Food insecurity is already a fact of life in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), where the harsh climate, rough terrain, poor soils, and short growing seasons often lead to low agricultural productivity and food deficits. While most people have access to agricultural land, farming is carried out on comparatively small parcels of land ranging from 0.23–0.83 ha per household. As a so-called that over 40% of households in the mountainous The status of food security varies greatly across the climate change hotspot, climate change and region of the HKH are facing decreasing yields in mountains of the HKH region. While the number of extreme weather events like floods and droughts their five most important crops as a result of floods, undernourished people globally has been declining are projected to impact food security in mountain droughts, frost, hail, and disease. As a result, many over the last two decades, the change has been regions like the HKH particularly hard. The effects farmers are changing farming practices, including disproportionately slower in the HKH countries of climate change are compounded here due to delayed sowing and harvesting, resowing, changing and undernourishment remains high in the region. particular mountain characteristics: high levels of crop varieties, and abandoning staple crops and The mountain areas of these countries show the poverty and high proportions of undernourished livestock varieties. highest degree of food insufficiency and persistent people, high dependence on local agricultural undernourishment remains an urgent situation. productivity and depleted natural resources, Another response to change includes greater vulnerable supply lines and complicated logistics to involvement with cash crop production. While this Outmigration is one of the greatest social challenges external markets, and poor infrastructure. potentially opens new opportunities for income to farming in the HKH. The number of households generation, it also leaves farmers open to swings engaged in off-farm employment ranges from The semi-subsistence farming systems of the HKH in markets. These new production patterns are also 13% in Pakistan to 57% in Nepal. While it is a use a high diversity of agricultural practices and creating problems related to improper soil and water source of social and financial remittances for historically, they have been quite adept at using the management, and the lower diversity in production many households, it also results in frequent labour inherent flexibility of mountain food systems. But is leading to less diverse diets and more vulnerable shortages on farms. Remittances are usually not now farmers are struggling to maintain food security food security. In addition, cash crops, like staple enough to compensate for the missing work force. in the context of climate change and environmental crops, are also being threatened by the impacts of Because migration is also a highly engendered degradation. Recent vulnerability assessments show climate change. process, increasingly it is women and the elderly 4 5 who are left to tend the farms. As farming becomes more feminized, it brings challenges for the entire household. Women tend to be disproportionately affected by climate change and disasters because they lack access to information and resources, and are limited in their mobility and capacity to participate in decision-making. Widespread poverty through the mountain communities of the HKH continues to be a major factor in food insecurity here. As women are left to tend farms on their own, it affects both the time and knowledge they have to properly care for their children, including breastfeeding. Many children are affected by malnutrition, and the rate of stunting is high across much of the region, with the highest figures in remote mountain areas. Women also suffer from higher levels of malnutrition as a result of the higher energy demands placed on them in conjunction with limited food availability. Climate change is projected to affect food security to agriculture. The extensive decrease expected in a number of ways. Scenarios indicate that the in storage capacity will affect water supplies for Himalayan glaciers will release more water in the agriculture, hydropower potential, and other uses. next 10–20 years, followed by a gradual decrease in most major river basins. However, there will be Food insecurity has the greatest impact on those significant variations in this pattern across the region people in the HKH region who are socially, culturally, and future water supply will be less predictable. While economically, or otherwise marginalized, in effect a the Himalayan water towers will discharge less water majority of the mountain dwellers. Achieving improved over time, rainfall will increase. Conditions for food food security in the face of climate change will require: production and livelihoods in general will depend • Filling in knowledge gaps about food production greatly on the balance through the seasons between systems glacial melting and rainfall. Most projections suggest • Targeting and increasing involvement of younger that more extreme weather events and increasing generations in farming rainfall variability will lower agricultural productivity. • Supporting greater diversity in small-scale farming • Developing more gender-sensitive farming Climate change impacts on food security will vary approaches across the HKH. Pronounced trends in the HKH • Strengthening education and building effective indicate warming and drought-proneness in China networks for knowledge sharing and the Koshi basin, increased winter water stress in • Integrating food security development goals in South Asia, high variability in monsoon and flood- policies addressing climate change adaptation related disasters in the Upper Indus and plains • Mainstreaming mountain-related issues into the of other basins, and warming in higher altitudes current discussions on the Post-2015 process and in all basins. All these trends present a high risk Sustainable Development Goals. 6 1 2 3 4 5 Mountain outposts are more vulnerable to change è Climate change will have greater impacts on food security than previously expected è Mountain regions are hit harder than lowlands è Food security in the mountains is increasingly exposed to global market forces 6 7 8 “Ten years ago, all of our families had livestock with a few milk cows, pigs, and goats each, but now the families can only manage to raise some pigs. Due to the drought, there is insufficient fodder growth around the village to support cows, and only three families keep goats now (about 20 goats per family). Similarly, from a village crop production of rain-fed potatoes, wheat, and maize 10 years ago, now only potatoes can be grown in the dry conditions. However, potato production is still meager and only provides a subsistence crop. The forested slopes on the village mountain have traditionally been a reliable source of medicinal plants and forest food. Medicinal plants are especially valuable as they provide a good cash income when sold at the market but due to a growing need by villagers for these during the droughts, the forest’s resources are overexploited with no medicinal plants now. Life is very hard for Qi Ping people these days.” Village headman in Qi Ping village, Yunnan, China 8 9 FIGURE 1 10 “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”2 Rome Declaration on World Food Security, 19963 The situation in Qi Ping is not unusual for the societies, however, the HKH is characterized by of increased demand for grains for food, feed, and mountainous regions of the Hindu Kush Himalayas high levels of poverty which have a direct impact biofuels; increased economic growth; reduced global (HKH).1 In this harsh and rugged region, food on their ability to both produce and acquire food stocks and storage capacities; low investment in insecurity is common and vulnerability is a fact (Section 3.2). A regional level poverty study in the agriculture; high energy prices; and adverse weather of life. In recent years, however, food security has Hindu Kush Himalayas revealed that of the events around the world (Section 3.1).