Planning for Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Coastal Dunedin Brenna Sherson A thesis summitted in partial fulfilment of the degree of Master of Planning University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand 1tst November 2019 Flooding in the settlement of Long Beach 24 July 2017 Photo: Alfie West ii Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) is leading to many social, environmental and financial implications for low-lying coastal communities across the globe. For Aotearoa New Zealand, the impending threat of SLR and the long-term challenges it will bring will significantly impact the entire country. Adaptation provides a method to cope with the challenges of SLR for communities and local authorities. However, adaptation has been difficult due to a number of reasons, including: ambiguity of what constitutes “successful adaptation” and effective community engagement within adaptation, varying degrees of understanding of the effects of SLR, and varying capacities of communities and local government authorities to deal with the effects of SLR. This study aims to explore how local authorities and small coastal communities can successfully adapt to accelerating SLR. Qualitative research methods are used to explore the case studies of two small coastal communities in Dunedin, Otago (Aramoana, and Long Beach). Methods employed include extensive literature and policy review, as well as interviews with community members, relevant agencies and local authority staff. The findings are threefold: firstly, it is found that stakeholders have mixed views on the current adaptive responses. There is a common perception that national level responses are weak, and the the blurred roles and responsibilities for Regional Council and Territorial Council are a significant barrier to effective adaptation. Community informants called for adaptive responses to focus on providing greater support to facilitate their mobilisation and specific needs. Secondly, there are barriers to effective engagement with legislated forms of public consultation. These being, lack of resourcing, the nature of the climate change issues, participant burn-out and a lack of two-way conversations. The findings suggest the role of community engagement in adaptation planning must expand to become a tool for: Providing information about climate change impacts and responses; allowing a communication channel for community members to share their knowledge and experiences with each other and council; Achieving shared community aspirations. iii Thirdly, responses in Aramoana and Long Beach should focus on strengthening community characteristics that facilitate resilience building and enhance adaptive capacity overall. The community characteristics highlighted were social capital, self-organisation, flexibility, and local knowledge. Strengthening these characteristics will enhance their ability to not only respond to SLR, but also embrace these changes and to use them to create future opportunities for the communities (Heidkamp & Morrissey, 2018; Nelson, Adger, & Brown, 2007). Overall, to address the lack of enthusiasm towards current adaptive actions, difficulties experienced with formalised engagement processes, and to facilitate positive resilience building characteristics, the findings suggest implementing a community-based adaptation approach that focusses on both adaptation and development, while benefiting from existing local resources. iv Acknowledgments The completion of this thesis would not have been possible without the endless support of my MPlan classmates, friends, and family. To my supervisor Ashraful Alam, for showing interest in my topic and helping me tie all the ideas together to form this final product. To all of my MPlan friends who have made the last two years at university more enjoyable than could have been anticipated. The many laughs, words of encouragement, and questionable antics will be forever treasured. To all the lovely people in office 5S6 for allowing me to distract everyone, for the hours of conversations, advice and support. To my friends who have given me endless love and encouragement throughout the completion of this thesis. Thank you for showing interest in my studies and continuously supporting me. To my battler of a boyfriend, Skippy, for the unconditional love and support throughout the emotional rollercoaster of my studies. To my family, thank you for your endless love. Thank you, Mum and Dad, for always encouraging me, and celebrating with me along every step of the way. Finally, thank you to the key informants and especially the communities of Long Beach and Aramoana, for taking time out of their busy lives to provide invaluable insights for my research. v Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................ iii Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................. v List of Figures .................................................................................................................... xi List of Tables .................................................................................................................... xii List of Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... xiii 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1 The Threat of Sea Level Rise .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Challenges for Planned Adaptation to Sea Level Rise ..................................................... 2 1.3 Stating the Gap within Research .................................................................................... 3 1.4 Research Aims and Questions ........................................................................................ 4 1.5 Case Study: Long Beach and Aramoana .......................................................................... 5 1.5.1 Long Beach ........................................................................................................ 6 1.5.2 Aramoana ........................................................................................................... 6 1.6 Methodology ................................................................................................................. 7 1.7 Thesis Structure ............................................................................................................. 8 1.8 Research Significance .................................................................................................... 9 2. Literature Review ..................................................................................................... 10 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 The Shift from Mitigation to Adaptation Responses ........................................................... 11 2.3 Adaptation and Vulnerability Reduction ............................................................................. 13 vi 2.3.1 Defining Vulnerability ............................................................................................ 13 2.3.2 Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability ......................................................................... 15 2.3.3 Vulnerability, Resilience and Sustainable Adaptation ............................................ 16 2.4 Resilience and Adaptation .................................................................................................. 18 2.4.1 Adaptive Capacity ................................................................................................... 21 2.4.2 Critiques of Resilience Theory ............................................................................... 21 2.5 Transformational Adaptation ............................................................................................. 22 2.6 Approaches to Adaptation ................................................................................................. 26 2.6.1 Conventional methods of adaptation ...................................................................... 26 2.6.2 Adaptive Pathways Approach ................................................................................. 29 2.7 The complexity of “Successful Adaptation” ........................................................................ 30 2.8 Community Engagement .................................................................................................... 33 2.9 Community Engagement with Climate Change Effects ........................................................ 36 2.9.1 Difficulties of public engagement with perceived ‘distant’ effects of climate change .......................................................................................................................................... 39 2.10 Community Development for Adaptation ......................................................................... 40 2.11 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 42 3. Methodology ........................................................................................................... 44 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................