Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on- Trent Joint Employment Land Review December 2015 41499/02/MW/YH/Cro Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners 3rd Floor One St James's Square Manchester M2 6DN nlpplanning.com This document is formatted for double sided printing. © Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2015. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. All Rights Reserved. Registered Office: 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A Executive Summary This Employment Land Review has been prepared by Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners on behalf of Stoke-on-Trent City Council and Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council to inform the preparation of the Councils’ new Joint Local Plan. The study objectively assesses B-Use Class economic development needs in line with the National Planning Policy Framework and the Planning Practice Guidance, evaluating specific employment allocations and determining where growth should be accommodated across both local authority areas. The key findings of the study are as follows: Economic Context The local economy of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme has seen substantial levels of restructuring over the past 40 years or so, away from the traditional manufacturing base for which the area was internationally renowned, towards a more service-orientated economy, in particular logistics and distribution. The latter growth is due in no small part to the area’s strategic location at the heart of the UK and its impressive connectivity, with access to excellent road (M6, A50, A500) and rail (West Coast Main Line) links. However, both authorities are also characterised by poor rates of entrepreneurial activity, with fewer small businesses in both authorities, high unemployment and a lower rate of self-employment in Stoke-on-Trent relative to regional and national averages. Stoke-on-Trent remains a net importer of labour, with a net total of 6,108 in- commuters according to the 2011 Census. In contrast, Newcastle-under-Lyme is a net exporter of labour, with a net total of 8,058 out-commuters. Very strong commuting relationships exist between Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme, alongside Stafford, Staffordshire Moorlands and Cheshire East. Based on the Practice Guidance’s methodology for defining labour market areas, Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme together comprise a Travel to Work Area and a Functional Economic Market Area. Employment Space Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s employment space is still dominated by industrial uses which account for around 70% of total employment floorspace. Whilst this is increasing in Newcastle under Lyme, the level of industrial stock in Stoke on Trent has been declining for a number of years. In contrast, the amount of office floorspace in both areas is increasing. Overall, stock vacancies within both industrial and office space, across the two authorities, is higher than ideal ‘liquid’ market levels, suggesting an oversupply relative to demand. 9135951v13 The vast majority of B-class completions in Stoke-on-Trent over recent years have consisted of B8 warehousing units. Following the recession there has been a drop in the rates of B-class development across the board. Likewise, there has been very little development over the past five years in Newcastle- under-Lyme, which was preceded by two years of extremely high B1c/B2 manufacturing uses and B8 warehousing development. Stoke-on-Trent has seen significant losses of B-class employment land which, despite having reduced since the recession, continue to be high. Comparatively, losses within Newcastle-under-Lyme are much lower. Commercial Property Market The two authorities’ commercial property market is relatively localised and, notwithstanding some very large logistics employers, remains heavily reliant on a large base of SMEs and existing occupier churn. From a commercial property market perspective, the FEMA does not currently extend far beyond the boundaries of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, although there could be an opportunity to broaden this if a strategy was put in place to pro- actively target and attract business requirements from further afield, such as footloose opportunities arising along the M6 Corridor. Given that the two authorities represent a joint FEMA (a finding that was supported by agents who view the commercial property market as being largely indistinguishable across the two authorities), this suggests that employment land in one authority could potentially meet needs in the other. This is a particularly salient point given that on the basis of the quantitative analysis alone, Stoke-on-Trent has an under supply of land, whereas under one forecasting scenario Newcastle-under-Lyme shows an over-supply. Review of Employment Site Portfolio An assessment of the area’s employment sites undertaken as part of this study indicates that Stoke-on-Trent has a small number of large employment sites (68.0 ha, or 65% of the existing employment stock, is made up from just 5 sites) and a large number of fairly small sites. Only 34% of the stock (35.8ha) has been ranked as ‘Very Good’ or ‘Good’. In Newcastle-under-Lyme, just three sites (57.5 ha) represent 75% of the existing employment stock, with the remainder of the sites generally being under 3 ha. Approximately a quarter of the stock (20.6 ha, or 27%) has been ranked as ‘Good’. Future Requirement of Employment Space Eight scenarios of future employment space were considered for both authorities. The scenarios based upon the future demand for labour harnessed three sets of employment projections – Experian, which projects employment growth over the period 2013-2039 of 30,605 jobs in Stoke-on- Trent and 9,181 in Newcastle-under-Lyme; Cambridge Econometrics, which projects 12,686 jobs in Stoke-on-Trent and 9,898 in Newcastle-under-Lyme; and Oxford Economics, which projects 3,456 jobs in Stoke-on-Trent and 6,329 in Newcastle-under-Lyme. A Policy-On scenario also factored in the spatial 9135951v13 implications of various regeneration initiatives within the two authorities. Labour supply scenarios were calculated based on the outputs of the two authorities’ joint SHMA, and a past take up scenario considered providing for a similar level of development as had occurred in the past. For Stoke-on-Trent, between 146 ha and 201 ha was identified as being required over the 26-year plan period to 2039 of which between 36.5 and 50.25 ha relates to office land, and between 109.5 ha and 150.75 ha relates to industrial/warehousing land. It was recommended that the current portfolio of land should be rebalanced to deallocate around 13 ha of land, leaving around 97 ha (net). This would leave a shortfall of between 49 ha and 104 ha, depending upon where in the employment land OAN range STCC targets in its emerging Local Plan. For Newcastle-under-Lyme, between 44 ha and 133 ha was identified as being required over the 26-year plan period to 2039 of which between 11 ha and 33 ha relates to office land, and between 33 ha and 100 ha for industrial/warehousing land. It is recommended that the current portfolio of land be rebalanced to deallocate around 3 ha of the existing portfolio, leaving around 74 ha (net). This would leave a range between a quantitative oversupply of 30 ha and a quantitative shortfall of 49 ha, depending upon where in the employment land OAN range NLBC targets through its emerging Local Plan. Across the FEMA overall, the forecasting suggests a need for between 190 ha and 334 ha over the 26-year plan period, or between 37 ha and 64 ha across five year rolling supply periods. 9135951v13 Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent : Joint Employment Land Review Contents 1.0 Introduction 15 Background .................................................................................................... 15 Scope of Study............................................................................................... 16 Methodology .................................................................................................. 17 Structure of Report ......................................................................................... 18 2.0 Policy Context 20 Introduction .................................................................................................... 20 3.0 Economic Context 30 Introduction .................................................................................................... 30 Overview ........................................................................................................ 30 Economic Conditions and Trends .................................................................. 31 Functional Economic Market Area.................................................................. 44 SWOT Analysis .............................................................................................. 46 4.0 Overview of Employment Space 48 Introduction .................................................................................................... 48 Current Stock of Employment Space ............................................................. 48 Employment Space in Adjoining Areas .......................................................... 56 Changing Requirements for Employment Space ............................................ 58 Conclusions ..................................................................................................