Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on- Trent

Joint Employment Land Review

December 2015

41499/02/MW/YH/Cro

Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners 3rd Floor One St James's Square Manchester M2 6DN nlpplanning.com

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Executive Summary

This Employment Land Review has been prepared by Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners on behalf of Stoke-on-Trent City Council and Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council to inform the preparation of the Councils’ new Joint Local Plan. The study objectively assesses B-Use Class economic development needs in line with the National Planning Policy Framework and the Planning Practice Guidance, evaluating specific employment allocations and determining where growth should be accommodated across both local authority areas.

The key findings of the study are as follows:

Economic Context

The local economy of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme has seen substantial levels of restructuring over the past 40 years or so, away from the traditional manufacturing base for which the area was internationally renowned, towards a more service-orientated economy, in particular logistics and distribution. The latter growth is due in no small part to the area’s strategic location at the heart of the UK and its impressive connectivity, with access to excellent road (M6, A50, A500) and rail (West Coast Main Line) links. However, both authorities are also characterised by poor rates of entrepreneurial activity, with fewer small businesses in both authorities, high unemployment and a lower rate of self-employment in Stoke-on-Trent relative to regional and national averages.

Stoke-on-Trent remains a net importer of labour, with a net total of 6,108 in- commuters according to the 2011 Census. In contrast, Newcastle-under-Lyme is a net exporter of labour, with a net total of 8,058 out-commuters. Very strong commuting relationships exist between Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme, alongside Stafford, Staffordshire Moorlands and Cheshire East. Based on the Practice Guidance’s methodology for defining labour market areas, Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme together comprise a Travel to Work Area and a Functional Economic Market Area.

Employment Space

Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s employment space is still dominated by industrial uses which account for around 70% of total employment floorspace. Whilst this is increasing in Newcastle under Lyme, the level of industrial stock in Stoke on Trent has been declining for a number of years. In contrast, the amount of office floorspace in both areas is increasing. Overall, stock vacancies within both industrial and office space, across the two authorities, is higher than ideal ‘liquid’ market levels, suggesting an oversupply relative to demand.

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The vast majority of B-class completions in Stoke-on-Trent over recent years have consisted of B8 warehousing units. Following the recession there has been a drop in the rates of B-class development across the board. Likewise, there has been very little development over the past five years in Newcastle- under-Lyme, which was preceded by two years of extremely high B1c/B2 manufacturing uses and B8 warehousing development. Stoke-on-Trent has seen significant losses of B-class employment land which, despite having reduced since the recession, continue to be high. Comparatively, losses within Newcastle-under-Lyme are much lower.

Commercial Property Market

The two authorities’ commercial property market is relatively localised and, notwithstanding some very large logistics employers, remains heavily reliant on a large base of SMEs and existing occupier churn. From a commercial property market perspective, the FEMA does not currently extend far beyond the boundaries of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, although there could be an opportunity to broaden this if a strategy was put in place to pro- actively target and attract business requirements from further afield, such as footloose opportunities arising along the M6 Corridor.

Given that the two authorities represent a joint FEMA (a finding that was supported by agents who view the commercial property market as being largely indistinguishable across the two authorities), this suggests that employment land in one authority could potentially meet needs in the other. This is a particularly salient point given that on the basis of the quantitative analysis alone, Stoke-on-Trent has an under supply of land, whereas under one forecasting scenario Newcastle-under-Lyme shows an over-supply.

Review of Employment Site Portfolio

An assessment of the area’s employment sites undertaken as part of this study indicates that Stoke-on-Trent has a small number of large employment sites (68.0 ha, or 65% of the existing employment stock, is made up from just 5 sites) and a large number of fairly small sites. Only 34% of the stock (35.8ha) has been ranked as ‘Very Good’ or ‘Good’. In Newcastle-under-Lyme, just three sites (57.5 ha) represent 75% of the existing employment stock, with the remainder of the sites generally being under 3 ha. Approximately a quarter of the stock (20.6 ha, or 27%) has been ranked as ‘Good’.

Future Requirement of Employment Space

Eight scenarios of future employment space were considered for both authorities. The scenarios based upon the future demand for labour harnessed three sets of employment projections – Experian, which projects employment growth over the period 2013-2039 of 30,605 jobs in Stoke-on- Trent and 9,181 in Newcastle-under-Lyme; Cambridge Econometrics, which projects 12,686 jobs in Stoke-on-Trent and 9,898 in Newcastle-under-Lyme; and Oxford Economics, which projects 3,456 jobs in Stoke-on-Trent and 6,329 in Newcastle-under-Lyme. A Policy-On scenario also factored in the spatial

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implications of various regeneration initiatives within the two authorities. Labour supply scenarios were calculated based on the outputs of the two authorities’ joint SHMA, and a past take up scenario considered providing for a similar level of development as had occurred in the past.

For Stoke-on-Trent, between 146 ha and 201 ha was identified as being required over the 26-year plan period to 2039 of which between 36.5 and 50.25 ha relates to office land, and between 109.5 ha and 150.75 ha relates to industrial/warehousing land. It was recommended that the current portfolio of land should be rebalanced to deallocate around 13 ha of land, leaving around 97 ha (net). This would leave a shortfall of between 49 ha and 104 ha, depending upon where in the employment land OAN range STCC targets in its emerging Local Plan.

For Newcastle-under-Lyme, between 44 ha and 133 ha was identified as being required over the 26-year plan period to 2039 of which between 11 ha and 33 ha relates to office land, and between 33 ha and 100 ha for industrial/warehousing land. It is recommended that the current portfolio of land be rebalanced to deallocate around 3 ha of the existing portfolio, leaving around 74 ha (net). This would leave a range between a quantitative oversupply of 30 ha and a quantitative shortfall of 49 ha, depending upon where in the employment land OAN range NLBC targets through its emerging Local Plan.

Across the FEMA overall, the forecasting suggests a need for between 190 ha and 334 ha over the 26-year plan period, or between 37 ha and 64 ha across five year rolling supply periods.

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Contents

1.0 Introduction 15 Background ...... 15 Scope of Study...... 16 Methodology ...... 17 Structure of Report ...... 18

2.0 Policy Context 20 Introduction ...... 20

3.0 Economic Context 30 Introduction ...... 30 Overview ...... 30 Economic Conditions and Trends ...... 31 Functional Economic Market Area...... 44 SWOT Analysis ...... 46

4.0 Overview of Employment Space 48 Introduction ...... 48 Current Stock of Employment Space ...... 48 Employment Space in Adjoining Areas ...... 56 Changing Requirements for Employment Space ...... 58 Conclusions ...... 60

5.0 Stakeholder Consultation 61 Introduction ...... 61 Employment Land Stakeholder Consultation ...... 61

6.0 Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme Commercial Property Market 63 Introduction ...... 63 Overview ...... 63 Market Geography ...... 63 Market Segments ...... 65 Stoke-on-Trent ...... 65 Newcastle-under-Lyme ...... 70 Business Enquires ...... 74 Needs of Local Businesses ...... 76 Conclusions ...... 78

7.0 Review of Employment Sites Portfolio 80 Introduction ...... 80 Overview of Assessed Sites ...... 80

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Approach ...... 82 Overview of Committed Employment Sites...... 84 Site Assessment Results ...... 84 Conclusions ...... 88

8.0 Future Requirements for B Class Employment Space 89 Introduction ...... 89 Methodology ...... 89 Forecasts of Job Growth ...... 90 Labour Supply: Scenarios 5 to 7 ...... 110 Translating Floorspace into Land Requirements ...... 113 Summary ...... 122

9.0 Demand/Supply Balance 132 Introduction ...... 132 Quantitative Balance ...... 132 Qualitative Factors ...... 137 Potential Employment Sites ...... 140 Conclusions ...... 143

10.0 Overall Conclusions and Policy Implications 147 Overview of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s Economy ...... 147 Functional Economic Market Area ...... 148 Policy Approaches ...... 149 Industrial Uses ...... 151 Office Uses ...... 152 Future Requirements ...... 152 Other Policy Issues ...... 158 Monitoring ...... 160

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Figures

Figure 1.1 Employment Land Review Methodology ...... 18 Figure 3.1 Context of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme ...... 31 Figure 3.2 Claimant unemployment Jan 2008 to Jan 2015...... 33 Figure 3.3 Qualifications of the labour force in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme ...... 35 Figure 3.4 Mean Gross Weekly Earnings ...... 36 Figure 3.5 2015 IMD Deprivation Map for Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-Under-Lyme .. 37 Figure 3.6 Stoke-on-Trent Locational Quotient ...... 38 Figure 3.7 Newcastle-under-Lyme Locational Quotient ...... 40 Figure 3.8 Size of Businesses within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme ...... 41 Figure 3.9 Spatial Distribution of Business Sectors and Employment in Stoke-on-Trent . 42 Figure 3.10 Spatial Distribution of Business Sectors and Employment in Newcastle-under- Lyme ...... 43 Figure 3.11 Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme travel-to-work linkages, 2011 ..... 45 Figure 4.1 Employment Floorspace – Percentage of Total Stock ...... 49 Figure 4.2 Change in Business Floorspace in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, 2000-2012 ...... 49 Figure 4.3 Spatial Distribution of Employment Floorspace in Stoke-on-Trent ...... 50 Figure 4.4 Spatial Distribution of Employment Floorspace in Newcastle-under-Lyme ..... 51 Figure 4.5 Stoke-on-Trent Gross Development Rates 2004/5 – 2013/14 ...... 53 Figure 4.6 Newcastle-under-Lyme Gross Development Rates 2004/5 – 2013/14 ...... 54 Figure 4.7 Stoke-on-Trent B-Class Losses by year (2004/05 – 2013/14) ...... 55 Figure 4.8 Newcastle-under-Lyme B-Class Losses by year (2004/5 – 2013/14) ...... 56 Figure 6.1 Enquiries for Industrial Properties by Size, Stoke-on-Trent [October 2014 to March 2015] ...... 75 Figure 6.2 Enquiries for Industrial Properties by Size, Newcastle-under-Lyme [October 2014 to March 2015] ...... 75 Figure 6.3 Enquiries for Office Properties by Size, Stoke-on-Trent [October 2014 to March 2015] ...... 76 Figure 6.4 Enquiries for Office Properties by Size, Newcastle-under-Lyme [October 2014 to March 2015] ...... 76 Figure 8.1 Range of Growth Scenarios/Approaches ...... 90 Figure 8.2 Stoke-on-Trent Total Job Growth by Scenario (2013-2039) ...... 100 Figure 8.3 Sectoral Job Growth in Stoke-on-Trent (2013- 2039) ...... 101 Figure 8.4 Newcastle-under-Lyme Total Job Growth by Scenario (2013- 2039) ...... 101 Figure 8.5 Sectoral Job Growth in Newcastle-under-Lyme (2013- 2039) ...... 102 Figure 8.6 Stoke-on-Trent Gross Take-Up ...... 116 Figure 8.7 Newcastle-under-Lyme Gross Take-Up ...... 116 Figure 8.8 Stoke-on-Trent Modelling Scenarios – Gross Employment Land Requirements 2013-39...... 126 Figure 8.9 Newcastle-under-Lyme Modelling Scenarios – Gross Employment Land Requirements 2013-39 ...... 127

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Tables

Table 3.1 Share of Knowledge-Based Businesses, 2010 ...... 44 Table 3.2 2011 Commuting Data ...... 46 Table 3.3 SWOT Analysis of the Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme Economy 46 Table 7.1 Summary of Site Assessments (Stoke-on-Trent) ...... 85 Table 7.2 Summary of Site Assessments (Newcastle-under-Lyme) ...... 86 Table 7.3 Available (net) Employment Space in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme ...... 87 Table 8.1 Total Experian Workforce Job Growth, 2013-2039 ...... 92 Table 8.2 Forecast Employment Change in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013-2039 – Experian Baseline Jobs, by Use Class ...... 92 Table 8.3 Forecast Net Floorspace Change (sqm) in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme 2013-2039 ...... 94 Table 8.4 Total Cambridge Econometrics Workforce Job Growth, 2013-2039 ...... 95 Table 8.5 Forecast Employment Change in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013-2039 – Baseline Jobs, by Use Class [CE] ...... 95 Table 8.6 Forecast Net Floorspace Change (sqm) in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme 2013-2039 [CE] ...... 96 Table 8.7 Total Oxford Economics Workforce Job Growth, 2013-2039 ...... 97 Table 8.8 Forecast Employment Change in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013-2039 –Baseline Jobs, by Use Class [OE] ...... 98 Table 8.9 Forecast Net Floorspace Change (sqm) in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme 2013-2039 [OE] ...... 98 Table 8.10 Comparison of Econometric Models’ Workforce Net Job Growth, 2013-2039 ...... 100 Table 8.11 Net Additional Employment for Regeneration Projections in Stoke-on-Trent 107 Table 8.12 Gross Additional Employment for Regeneration Projections in Newcastle- under-Lyme ...... 109 Table 8.13 CE Policy On Gross Additional Jobs ...... 110 Table 8.14 Forecast Net Floorspace Change (sqm) in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme 2013-2039 – ‘CE Policy On’ ...... 110 Table 8.15 SHMA Housing OAN Modelling Outputs ...... 111 Table 8.16 Forecast Job Growth using Labour Supply Projections (2013-39) ...... 112 Table 8.17 Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme B-Class Net Floorspace Required from Labour Supply Growth Scenarios, 2013-2039 ...... 112 Table 8.18 Stoke-on-Trent Net Land Requirements by Scenario ...... 113 Table 8.19 Newcastle-under-Lyme Net Land Requirements by Scenario ...... 114 Table 8.20 Net / Gross Annual Take-Up ...... 117 Table 8.21 Net Employment Space Requirements Based on Past Completion Trends, 2013 - 2039 ...... 117 Table 8.22 Recommended annual replacement of losses going forward ...... 121 Table 8.23 Safety Margin ...... 121 Table 8.24 Stoke-on-Trent Gross Employment Land Comparisons 2013-2039 (ha) ...... 122

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Table 8.25 Newcastle-under-Lyme Gross Employment Land Comparisons 2013-2039 (ha) ...... 123 Table 9.1 Existing Supply of Employment Land within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme (ha) ...... 133 Table 9.2 Demand/Supply of B Class Employment Space in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme (to 2039) ...... 137 Table 9.3 Resultant Portfolio of Employment Land (net) in Stoke-on-Trent to 2039 ..... 144 Table 9.4 Resultant Portfolio of Employment Land (net) in Newcastle-under-Lyme to 2039 ...... 145

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Appendices

Appendix 1 Business Survey Quotes Appendix 2 Employment Space in Adjoining Areas Appendix 3 List of Consultees Appendix 4 Site Assessment Criteria Appendix 5 Site Assessment Matrix Appendix 6 Site Assessment Pro-Formas Appendix 7 Experian’s Data Guide to its UK Regional Planning Service Model Appendix 8 Definition of B Class Sectors Appendix 9 Summary Analysis of JELR Compliance with NPPF/PPG Requirements Appendix 10 Assessed Employment Sites

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1.0 Introduction

1.1 Stoke-on-Trent City Council [STCC] and Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council [NLBC] commissioned Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners [NLP] to prepare a new Employment Land Review [ELR] for the two local authority areas. The document will inform the preparation of the Councils’ new Joint Local Plan.

1.2 This document forms the Councils’ new ELR. It takes account of the National Planning Policy Framework [the Framework] and the National Planning Practice Guidance [the Practice Guidance].

1.3 The main elements of the ELR involve three key stages:

 Stage 1: Taking Stock of the Existing Situation: analysis of the economic strengths and weaknesses of the local economy, functional economic area, and an assessment of potential employment sites.

 Stage 2: Identifying a Site Portfolio: analysing the suitability and deliverability of sites available to meet future needs under each growth scenario, which sites should be retained for employment uses, which sites should be released for alternative uses, and any need for additional sites.

 Stage 3: Assessing Future Requirements: testing the implications of different population/household growth scenarios on future employment space requirements for the two authorities, including latest economic forecasts and housing targets from the Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme’s joint Strategic Housing Market Assessment [SHMA].

Background

1.4 Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s previous Joint ELR [JELR] (2011) was considered in an appeal by Stoke-on-Trent Regeneration Limited. The appeal related to STCC’s failure to determine an outline planning application for up to 300 dwellings at land at Trentham Lakes, Stanley Matthews Way, Stoke-on-Trent. The appeal site was considered by STCC to represent an important high quality future employment site.

1.5 The Inspector afforded the JELR limited weight in her consideration of the appeal, which was ultimately allowed. In view of the Inspector’s concerns regarding the JELR’s methodology and its findings, the fact that the JELR is now almost four years old, and the significant changes in national planning policy and guidance that have occurred over this time, it is appropriate to reconsider the local authorities’ employment land needs and supply.

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Scope of Study

1.6 NLP was commissioned by STCC and NLBC in early 2015 to prepare an ELR for both local authorities to:

 Establish the economic context of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme, and how it has changed since the previous ELR was undertaken in 2011;

 Analyse recent and current commercial property market trends in Stoke- on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and their Functional Economic Market Area [FEMA];

 Undertake a thorough review of current employment space provision in both authorities; and,

 Provide each local authority with an understanding of the current and potential requirements for employment land for the plan period up to 2039.

1.7 The ELR update has been informed by a joint SHMA (being undertaken by Turley Associates) which identifies the level of housing need in both authorities based on a range of demographic and economically driven growth scenarios.

1.8 The purpose of the joint ELR is to provide a key part of the two local authorities’ evidence base in the preparation of their emerging Local Plan. It will provide them with an understanding of the current and potential requirements for employment land. This is based on considering a range of scenarios for how Stoke-on-Trent’s and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s economies could change in the future.

1.9 Following from this analysis, the land hectarage implications are specifically considered for the group of B-class sectors outlined below:

 B1a/b Business (offices/ research & development);

 B1c/B2 Light/General Industrial; and

 B8 Storage or Distribution (wholesale warehouses, distribution centres).

1.10 The study also considers future projections for growth in non B-class sectors to set out how the overall economy of the area could change in the future, although it does not specifically assess the space implications of these other sectors because they are planned for using different methodologies and considered by other forms of technical evidence (e.g. retail assessment). A full breakdown of individual sectors can be found in Appendix 6.

1.11 It should be noted that there are a variety of factors and drivers to consider when objectively assessing business needs for a local area. This study utilises a combination of both quantitative and qualitative analysis to explore these issues within the context of the City of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme Borough and synthesises these to draw overarching conclusions and implications. An important consideration for any work of this type is that it is inevitably a point-in-time assessment. This study has incorporated the latest

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data and other evidence available at the time of preparation. The accuracy and sources of data derived from third party sources has not been checked or verified by NLP.

1.12 As part of the study, consultation was undertaken with a range of stakeholders including commercial agents, economic development and business organisations. A list of consultees is included at Appendix 3. As part of the duty to cooperate, a stakeholder workshop was held in July 2015 with Officers from Stoke-on-Trent City Council and Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council, stakeholders and adjoining authorities, and comprised a presentation of interim findings and structured group discussions.

Methodology

1.13 In March 2014, the Government released the Practice Guidance to provide practical support for practitioners and inform the implementation of the Framework. With regards to assessing economic development needs, the Practice Guidance states that local authorities should: a Consider their existing stock of land, identifying the demand for, and supply of, employment land and determine the likely business needs and future market requirements; b Consider the locational and premises requirements of particular types of business; c Consider projections and forecasts to help identify where sites have been developed for a specific economic use; d Analyse supply and demand to identify whether there is a discrepancy between quantitative and qualitative supply and demand for employment sites; and e Identify where gaps in local employment land provision exist by comparing the available stock of land with the requirements of the area.

1.14 The methodology that has been used to undertake the ELR conforms to the requirements of the Framework and Practice Guidance and can be summarised in Figure 1.1.

1.15 The Framework sets out the Government’s planning policies for England and it should be used to help shape the plan-making process. It is supported by Practice Guidance, which builds upon the Framework in order to provide more detailed guidance regarding how key evidence based documents should be prepared.

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Figure 1.1 Employment Land Review Methodology

Functional Economic Market Area(s) Quantitative Analysis Market Segments Qualitative Analysis

Employment Forecasts Demand Market Signals (labour demand) Growth Sectors Demographic Trends Objectively (labour supply) Stakeholder Assessed Need Consultation Take-up Rates for Employment Economic Vision

Losses Data Land Supply Spatial Strategic vs Local Type & Quality Deliverability

Distribution Employment Zones Outputs Quantitative & Qualitative Suitability / Availability of Alignment with Needs / Gaps Sites Economic Aspirations

Source: NLP

1.16 Both the Framework and the Practice Guidance consider the preparation of evidence-based documents to inform plan-making - and specifically planning for employment land - giving rise to a degree of overlap between the two documents. Appendix 9 draws together the requirements of both the Framework and the Practice Guidance and assesses the compliance of this ELR within this context.

Structure of Report

1.17 The report is structured as follows:

 Policy Context (Section 2.0) – a review of the relevant national and local planning policy documents, employment studies and economic development strategies;

 Economic Context (Section 3.0) – a review of current economic conditions and recent trends in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme, examining the economic strengths and weaknesses that may affect future needs for employment space;

 Overview of Employment Space (Section 4.0) – analysis of the current stock and trends of employment space in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme in terms of mix of uses, development rates, gains and losses, and provision in adjoining local authority areas;

 Stakeholder Consultation (Section 5.0) – outlining the consultation NLP has undertaken with local businesses, agents and other key stakeholders to ensure commercially realistic and robust outputs;

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 Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme Commercial Property Market (Section 6.0) – a review of the local commercial property market, including the supply of and demand for different types of employment space within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and the needs of different market segments;

 Review of Current Employment Sites Portfolio (Section 7.0) – assessment of the quality of current and potential employment land supply against defined criteria including its attractiveness to the market and its ability to meet future needs;

 Future Requirements for B Class Employment Space (Section 8.0) – estimates of future employment space requirements for B-Class sectors in quantitative terms, drawing on employment forecasts and other factors;

 Demand/Supply Balance (Section 9.0) - assesses the balance between current land supply and future needs, in both quantitative and qualitative terms, by comparing forecast requirements with availability of existing sites;

 Overall Conclusions and Policy Implications (Section 10.0) – considers other policy measures which may be required to support the economic growth objectives for STCC and NLBC, in both qualitative employment land issues such as how to renew and upgrade existing sites or how to encourage modern employment development within the constraints of a limited supply of potential new sites.

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2.0 Policy Context

Introduction

2.1 National planning policy places a particular emphasis on sustainable development through a process of: 1 Reviewing employment and housing land allocations to ensure the supply meets identified needs; 2 Proactively supporting sustainable economic development to deliver the homes, business and industrial units, infrastructure and thriving local places that the country needs; and 3 Encouraging the effective use of land by reusing land that has been previously developed (brownfield land), with a view to promoting regeneration.

2.2 This section provides a summary of the relevant policy documents relating to employment land and economic development within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme.

2.3 The Framework makes it clear that it is for LPAs to set employment land requirement figures for their Local Plan. Local land targets will be tested through the Local Plan process and LPAs must collect and use reliable information to justify employment land supply policies.

National Planning Policy Framework

2.4 The Framework sets out the Government’s economic, environmental and social planning policies for England. The Framework [§14] states that the purpose of the planning system is to contribute to the achievement of sustainable development, which should be seen as a ‘golden thread’ running through both plan-making and decision taking.

2.5 The Framework [§7] states that there are three dimensions to sustainable development: economic, social and environmental. The economic role that the planning system must perform involves contributing to building a strong, responsive and competitive economy, by ensuring that sufficient land of the right type is available in the right places and at the right time to support growth and innovation; and by identifying and co-ordinating development requirements, including the provision of infrastructure.

2.6 The Framework [§19] states that ‘significant weight’ should be placed on the need to support economic growth through the planning system. To help achieve economic growth, Local Plans should [§21]:

 Set out a clear economic vision and strategy for their area which positively and proactively encourages sustainable economic growth;

 Set criteria, or identify strategic sites, for local and inward investment to match the strategy and to meet anticipated needs over the plan period;

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 Support existing business sectors, taking account of whether they are expanding or contracting and, where possible, identify and plan for new or emerging sectors likely to locate in their area. Policies should be flexible enough to accommodate needs not anticipated in the plan and to allow a rapid response to changes in economic circumstances;

 Plan positively for the location, promotion and expansion of clusters or networks of knowledge driven, creative or high technology industries;

 Identify priority areas for economic regeneration, infrastructure provision and environmental enhancement; and

 Facilitate flexible working practices such as the integration of residential and commercial uses within the same unit.

2.7 The Framework [§22] also highlights that allocated employment sites, for which there is no reasonable prospect of development, should not be protected in the long term. Proposals for alternative uses on such sites should be treated on their merits having regard to market signals and the relative need for different land uses to support sustainable local communities.

2.8 The Framework [§23] confirms that offices are a ‘main town centre use’, and as such, LPAs should apply a sequential test to planning applications for main town centre uses that are not in an existing centre and are not in accordance within an up-to-date Local Plan: “They should require applications for main town centre uses to be located in town centres, then in edge of centre locations and only if suitable sites are not available should out of centre sites be considered. When considering edge of centre and out of centre proposals, preference should be given to accessible sites that are well connected to the town centre. Applicants and LPAs should demonstrate flexibility on issues such as format and scale.” [§24]

2.9 The Framework [§28] indicates that LPAs are required to ensure that the Local Plan is based on adequate, up-to-date and relevant evidence about the economic, social and environmental characteristics and prospects of the area. LPAs should ensure that their assessment of strategies for housing, employment and other uses are integrated, and that they take full account of relevant market and economic signals [§158].

2.10 The Framework [§160] advises that LPAs should have a clear understanding of business needs within the economic markets operating in and across their area.

2.11 To achieve this, they should: 1 Work together with county and neighbouring authorities and with Local Enterprise Partnerships [LEPs] to prepare and maintain a robust evidence base to understand both existing business needs and likely changes in the market; and 2 Work closely with the business community to understand their changing needs and identify and address barriers to investment, including a lack of housing, infrastructure or viability.

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2.12 The Framework [§161] states that LPAs should use this evidence base to assess (inter alia): 1 The needs for land or floorspace for economic development, including both the quantitative and qualitative needs for all foreseeable types of economic activity over the plan period; 2 The existing and future supply of land available for economic development and its sufficiency and suitability to meet the identified needs. Reviews of land available for economic development should be undertaken at the same time as, or combined with, Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments and should include a reappraisal of the suitability of previously allocated land; and, 3 Deprived locations may benefit from planned remedial action.

2.13 Public bodies have a duty to cooperate on planning issues that cross administrative boundaries [§178]. The Framework [§181] requires local authorities to demonstrate evidence of having effectively co-operated to plan for issues with cross-boundary impacts when their local plans are submitted for examination. It sets out where co-operation might be appropriate and what form it might assume. It concludes that “cooperation should be a continuous process of engagement from initial thinking through to implementation”.

National Planning Practice Guidance

2.14 The Government has produced on-line Practice Guidance which includes guidance on the assessment of housing and economic development. This replaces the previous ODPM Employment Land Reviews: Guidance Note from 2004 (although this arguably remains a source of good practice).

2.15 The Practice Guidance provides a methodology for assessing economic development needs. It states1 that plan makers should liaise closely with the business community to understand their current and potential future requirements.

2.16 Plan makers should also consider: 1 The recent pattern of employment land supply and loss to other uses; 2 Market intelligence (from local data and discussions with developers and property agents, recent surveys of business needs or engagement with business and economic forums); 3 Market signals such as levels and changes in rental values, and differentials between land values in different uses; 4 Public information on employment land and premises required; 5 Information held by other public sector bodies and utilities in relation to infrastructure constraints;

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6 The existing stock of employment land. This will indicate the demand for and supply of employment land and determine the likely business needs and future market requirements (though it is important to recognise that existing stock may not reflect the future needs of business); 7 The locational and premises requirements of particular types of business; and, 8 Identification of oversupply and evidence of market failure.

2.17 When examining the recent take-up of employment land, the Practice Guidance2 advises that it is important to consider projections (based on past trends) and forecasts (based on future scenarios) and identify occurrences where sites have been developed for specialist economic uses.

3 2.18 In terms of forecasting future trends, the Practice Guidance advises that: 1 Plan makers should consider forecasts of quantitative and qualitative need (i.e. the number of units and amount of floorspace for other uses needed) but also its particular characteristics (e.g. footprint of economic uses and proximity to infrastructure); 2 Local authorities should develop an idea of future needs based on a range of data which is current and robust; 3 Emerging sectors that are well suited to the area being covered by the analysis should be encouraged where possible; and, 4 The available stock of land should be compared with the particular requirements of the area so that ‘gaps’ in local employment land provision can be identified.

4 2.19 The Practice Guidance advises that plan makers should consider: 1 Sectoral and employment forecasts and projections (labour demand); 2 Demographically derived assessments of future employment needs (labour supply techniques); 3 Analyses based on the past take-up of employment land and property and/or future property market requirements; and, 4 Consultation with relevant organisations, studies of business trends, and monitoring of business, economic and employment statistics.

5 2.20 In identifying the type of employment land needed the Practice Guidance advises that: 1 The need for rural employment should not be overlooked; 2 Underlying population projections can be purely demographic or tied to future housing stock which needs to be assessed separately; and,

2 2a-031-20140306 3 2a-032-20140306 4 ibid 5 2a-033-20140306

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3 Plan makers should be careful to consider that national economic trends may not automatically translate to particular areas with a distinct employment base.

6 2.21 In order to derive employment land requirements, the Practice Guidance states that when translating employment and output forecasts into land requirements there are four key relationships which need to be quantified: 1 Standard Industrial Classification sectors to use classes; 2 Standard Industrial Classification sectors to type of property; 3 Employment to floorspace (employment density); and, 4 Floorspace to site area (plot ratio based on industry proxies).

Local Planning Policy

Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent Core Spatial Strategy 2006 - 2026

2.22 Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent Councils’ Core Spatial Strategy was adopted in October 2009. This document sets out the strategic approach to development for the period 2006 to 2026. The Councils are currently preparing a new Local Plan, which will eventually replace the Core Spatial Strategy.

2.23 Strategic policies relating to employment provision and economic development are set out in Policy SP1 (Spatial Principles of Targeted Regeneration) and Policy SP2 (Spatial Principles of Economic Development) of the Core Spatial Strategy. These seek, inter alia, to: 1 Focus employment provision towards sites accessible to, and within, the North Staffordshire Regeneration Zone; 2 Take forward the area’s Regional Investment Site, Chatterley Valley; 3 Diversify and modernise the centres for new business investment; 4 Develop the City Centre of Stoke-on-Trent (i.e. Hanley) as the main focus for mixed use regeneration incorporating new office led schemes and Newcastle Town Centre as a focus for office development incorporated into mixed use schemes; 5 Focus retail and office development towards the City Centre and Newcastle Town Centre. Development in other centres will be of a nature and scale appropriate to their respective position and role within the hierarchy of centres; 6 Develop high value business growth through investment in Keele University and Keele Science Park, The University Quarter including Staffordshire University and University Hospital, and in the new growth sectors of medical and healthcare technologies and creative industries;

6 2a-034-20140306

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7 Attract new service-based industries; and, 8 Strategically plan land use on major brownfield sites for high value business growth.

2.24 In addition, the Core Strategy incorporates a series of Area Spatial Policies, for different parts of the Plan area. The economic development aspects of these policies are summarised below:

ASP1 – City Centre of Stoke-on-Trent Area Spatial Policy 1 Make provision for 85,000 sqm of additional gross office floorspace within or on the edge of the core City Centre over the Plan period; 2 The creation of a new, large scale, high density central business district in the south western sector of the centre;

ASP2 – Stoke-on-Trent Inner Urban Core Area Spatial Policy 3 Develop Etruria Valley as a major mixed use area with employment in the south; 4 Develop City Centre North West as a gateway to the City Centre incorporating employment development; 5 Implement the University Quarter Development Framework to create a high quality living environment and centre for employment; 6 Deliver employment and services-led regeneration in Stoke Town Centre;

ASP3 – Stoke-on-Trent Outer Urban Area Spatial Policy 7 Diversification of the economy will be achieved through focused major employment development, including Chatterley Whitfield Sustainable Enterprise Park and Chatterley Valley Regional Investment Site; 8 Support the realisation of brownfield development opportunities alongside strategic transport corridors where this does not prejudice the sustained regeneration of the Inner Core and City Centre;

ASP4 – Newcastle Town Centre Area Spatial Policy 9 Deliver 60,000 sqm of additional gross office floorspace within, or on the edge of, the town centre;

ASP5 – Newcastle and Kidsgrove Urban Neighbourhoods Area Spatial Policy 10 Deliver 104 ha of employment land over the Plan period; ASP6 – Rural Area Spatial Policy 11 Encourage the sensitive and sustainable diversification of traditional rural economies; 12 Foster investment in Keele University and Science Park.

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City of Stoke-on-Trent Local Plan 1990 - 2001

2.25 A small number of policies in the City of Stoke-on-Trent Local Plan have been saved by the Secretary of State and therefore continue to form part of the Development Plan. However, none of these policies relate to employment development.

Newcastle-under-Lyme Local Plan 2011

2.26 A number of policies in the Newcastle-under-Lyme Local Plan 2011 have also been saved by the Secretary of State and therefore continue to form part of the Development Plan for Newcastle-under-Lyme. These include a number of relevant employment and economic development policies. A brief summary of these saved policies is set out below: 1 Policy E2 allocates a site of 40 ha for employment development in Chatterley Valley. A Premium Employment Site [PES] forms the northern half of this site. 2 Policy E3 allocates up to 15 ha of land at Lymedale Park for employment development. 3 Other policies support the (re)development of land for Class B uses at: - London Road [Policy E4]; - Church Lane, Knutton (2.7 ha) [Policy E5]; - Chemical Lane (2.8 ha) [Policy E6]; - Kidsgrove Station Yard (0.8 ha) [Policy E7]; and - Keele University and Science Park [Policy E8]. 4 Policy E9 seeks to renew the planning permissions at Lymedale (28 ha), Rowhurst (12 ha), Ravensdale (20 ha), Wolstanton Colliery (12 ha) and Talke Road (5 ha). 5 Policy E11 seeks to resist the loss of good quality business and general industrial land and buildings. 6 Policy E12 supports the conversion of buildings in rural areas for new employment purposes.

Background Employment Land and Economic Studies

Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire LEP Strategic Economic Plan

2.27 Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Local Enterprise Partnership’s [LEP] – Strategic Economic Plan [SEP] was submitted to the Government in March 2014. It seeks to grow the economy by 50% and generate 50,000 new jobs in the next 10 years. The five central objectives at the heart of the plan are to create: 1 A Core City – Facilitating the rapid, planned growth of the conurbation centred on the city of Stoke-on-Trent, which would be a critical economic driver of the area.

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2 A Connected City- Securing strategic and local links which engage with new opportunities over the LEP area’s borders and across the globe, both physically and digitally. 3 A Competitive Urban Centre – Significantly enhancing growth opportunities. 4 Sector Growth – Ensuring globally competitive innovation, investment and enterprise-led expansion across priority sectors. These include advanced manufacturing sectors which have shown competitive advantages in: Energy generation; Auto-Aero; Medical Technologies; Agri-Tech; and Applied Materials, in addition to strengthening Tourism and Business/Professional Services. 5 A Skilled Workforce – Developing a modern a flexible skills system which enables all people to up-skill and re-skill to meet the needs of the area’s growth sectors.

Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Enterprise Zone

2.28 Plans for two new Enterprise Zones to boost jobs and growth were formally submitted to the Government by the Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire LEP earlier this yearThe LEP sought Government backing for Ceramic Valley, the country's first high-technology ceramics enterprise zone, on land along the A500 corridor in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme. The Ceramic Valley proposal comprised an area of 250 ha within which are six largely cleared individual sites comprising over 140 ha of net developable land, all benefiting from Assisted Area status. In November 2015 the Ceramic Valley was confirmed as one of 26 new and extended Enterprise Zones (EZs) in the Government’s Spending Review. These sites have all been assessed (either in their totality or in part) by this ELR.

2.29 Whilst approval was also sought for a Connected Staffordshire Enterprise Zone (developing employment sites in rural and semi-rural sites across the wider county for businesses in the LEP's key sectors – agricultural technology, automotive engineering, energy, medical sciences and technology), this was not granted by the Government.

Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council and Stoke-on-Trent City Council Joint Employment Land Review Final Report

2.30 The Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council and Stoke-on-Trent City Council Joint Employment Land Review [JELR] was prepared as part of the evidence base to inform the preparation of Development Plan Documents as part of the Local Development Framework. The JELR was published in July 2011.

2.31 The JELR focussed on assessing the economic demand/need for employment land in the two authorities to 2026 as well as the existing supply. It proposed a portfolio of sites, suggested delivery arrangements and policy recommendations.

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Stoke-on-Trent

2.32 Based upon the historic take-up of employment land in Stoke-on-Trent, the JELR suggested a requirement of between 240 ha and 258 ha against the Core Strategy target of 174 ha. The econometric forecasting work suggested an employment land requirement of 227.4 ha. For the purposes of the ELR, however, the study recommended working to a figure of 230 ha.

2.33 In terms of supply, the JELR undertook a detailed site appraisal of 88 sites (representing a total of 340 ha) to assess their attractiveness, deliverability and most appropriate employment use. Following this assessment, 300 ha of potential employment land was found to exist across Stoke-on-Trent, a potential over-supply of 70 ha against the identified need. However, the study identified a potential shortfall of sufficient, quality employment land in the medium to long term to meet the revised supply target.

Newcastle-under-Lyme

2.34 Based upon the historic take-up of employment land in Newcastle-under- Lyme, the JELR suggested a requirement of between 157.8 ha and 161.42 ha against the Core Strategy target of 44.07 ha. The econometric forecasting work suggested an employment land requirement of 149.8 ha. For the purposes of the ELR, however, the study recommending working to a figure of 150 ha to 2026.

2.35 In terms of supply, the Study undertook a detailed site appraisal of 33 sites (representing a total of 221 ha) to assess their attractiveness, deliverability and most appropriate employment use. Following this assessment, 135.46 ha of potential employment land was found to exist across Newcastle-under- Lyme, a potential undersupply of 14.54 ha against the identified need. As with Stoke-on-Trent, the study identified a potential shortfall of sufficient, quality employment land in the medium to long term to meet the revised supply target.

Trentham Lakes Appeal

7 2.36 The robustness of the JELR was subsequently considered in an appeal by Stoke-on-Trent Regeneration Limited at land at Trentham Lakes, Stanley Matthews Way, Stoke-on-Trent.

2.37 During the Inquiry, the Council partially updated the JELR using the latest employment data (2012) at the time. The revised econometric forecasting suggested 258 ha of employment land would be required in Stoke-on-Trent over the period to 2026, a 28 ha increase from the JELR target of 230 ha. The Inspector noted that although the demand generated by upgrading needs remained broadly similar in the two models, the land required as a result of demand generated by employment growth had significantly increased. There were also substantial differences between the two models in respect of the distribution of this employment land between sectors. The main differences

7 Appeal Ref: APP/M3455/A/13/2199404; decision date: 10 April 2014

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were found to relate to a considerable increase in the amount of heavy industrial land required (from 0 to 30 ha); the substantial reduction in the amount of land required for logistics (from 93 ha to 38 ha); and significant increases in land required for light industrial and office uses (from 4 ha to 36 ha and from 5 ha to 32 ha respectively).

2.38 In considering the evidence, the Inspector found that: 1 The JELR included an amount of land required for the upgrading/modernisation of existing stock on new land rather than on existing land. In respect of the updated JELR model, this equated to 118.81 ha, which did not reflect the fact that in most sectors, the employment land required for these purposes was less than that anticipated for employment growth, with the exception of the heavy industrial sector, where it accounted for more than twice that required for employment growth [§17]; 2 The JELR referred to an estimate for upgrading/modernisation needs as a key assumption. It stated it was an estimated percentage of current occupied stock that would need to upgrade/modernise via relocating to new sites and premises. However, it did not explain the basis for the percentages included nor take account of the subsequent availability of employment land vacated by these existing businesses [§18]; 3 No surveys of existing businesses had taken place to determine the likely future aspirations and demands of existing businesses to relocate to new (better) sites and premises [§18]; 4 No evidence of past trends in relation to the upgrading/modernisation of existing businesses within Stoke-on-Trent were put forward to support the amount of employment land included within the JELR [§18]; 5 The changing of negative values to zero, as occurred in respect of the heavy industrial sector in the original JELR model, would be likely to instantly remove the possibility of surplus employment land being used for addressing future employment need [§19]; 6 There was no evidence of sensitivity testing having been undertaken [§21]; and, 7 The JELR had not been subject to public consultation or independent scrutiny [§23].

2.39 As a result of the above concerns, and the amendments made to the JELR by the Council during the Inquiry, the Inspector afforded it limited weight in her determination of the appeal. In view of the Inspector’s various concerns regarding the JELR’s methodology and its findings, and the fact that the JELR is now almost four years old, it is appropriate to reconsider the local authorities’ employment land needs and supply.

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3.0 Economic Context

Introduction

3.1 This section establishes the economic context for the study by reviewing recent economic conditions and trends within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme, relative to the West Midlands region and the national economy. This is important in identifying the existing strengths and weaknesses of the local economies, and the factors likely to influence the nature and level of future demand for employment space.

Overview

3.2 The study area comprises two neighbouring authorities – the City of Stoke-on- Trent and the Borough of Newcastle-under-Lyme. Stoke-on-Trent is located to the east of Newcastle-under-Lyme. It is a polycentric city made up of the City Centre (at Hanley) and six towns (Tunstall, Burslem, Meir, Stoke, Fenton and Longton) running roughly north to south along the A500. It covers an area of approximately 93 sq. km and its population in 2011 was 249,0008. According to the 2012 based SNPP the population is set to increase by 6.6% to 266,300 up to 2037.

3.3 Newcastle-under-Lyme is located towards the north west of the county of Staffordshire, and adjoins the City of Stoke-on-Trent. It is named after the main settlement in the Borough, but also contains the town of Kidsgrove, the villages of Silverdale and Keele and smaller rural settlements such as Audley. The Borough covers an area of 211 sq. km and in 2011 had a population of 123,8719. According to the 2012 based SNPP the population is set to increase by 5.6% to 131,200 up to 2037.

3.4 The two authorities are adjoined by Staffordshire Moorlands to the East, Stafford to the South, Shropshire to the West and Cheshire East to the North. Whilst the two authorities are within the West Midlands region, they are located on the border with the North West. In this way the authorities occupy a strategically advantageous position between the major urban conurbations of Manchester and Birmingham alongside national transport corridors linking the South East to the Midlands and the North. Both authorities are within the Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire LEP.

3.5 Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme benefit from strong connectivity, both via the road network (with two M6 junctions, the A50, A500, A34 and A53) and rail links (via the West Coast Mainline). These strategic transport links have helped the area attract inward investment and the area is seen as a ‘logistics hub’.

8 ONS (2011) Census 9 Ibid.

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3.6 However, within the conurbation itself there remains many internal connectivity constraints which limit the economic potential of both areas.10 Peak hour congestion in the main urban areas, for instance, threatens to impact upon the quality and vibrancy of such areas.11 Given the volume of freight movement in the area, improving the efficiency of operations will bring ‘benefits for business in terms of efficiency savings and for residents in terms of quality of life.’12

Figure 3.1 Context of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme

Economic Conditions and Trends

3.7 Current economic conditions and trends in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme are summarised below, with comparisons made (where appropriate) with regional and national averages. Data is drawn from published Office for National Statistics [ONS] sources unless otherwise indicated.

Employment

3.8 The overall population of Stoke-on-Trent at the time of the 2011 Census was 249,000. It grew by some 3.5% between 2001 and 2011, slightly below both the regional (6.4%) and national (7.9%) averages. The same can be said for Newcastle-under-Lyme, which grew by 1.5% over the same period, to 124,000.

3.9 Newcastle-under-Lyme’s growth was historically based upon the coal mining and heavy manufacturing industries. In contrast, Stoke-on-Trent’s rapid growth in the past and enduring industrial reputation was based upon the ceramics industry. Although both of these industries declined in the latter half of the 20th

10 Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire LEP (2014) Strategic Economic Plan, page 9 11 Ibid. page 9 12 ibid, paragraph 2.30

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Century as a result of wider structural changes to the economy, manufacturing remains a significant employer, providing over 54,000 jobs in the wider Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent LEP area13.

3.10 Whilst the ceramics, steel and coal industry in the region was beginning to decline several decades ago, a simultaneous boom in retail expansion necessitated warehouse space in close proximity to the markets they were serving. The area was well suited to providing these spaces, due to its large sites, strategic transport corridors and a relatively cheap labour force. Wholesale and Retail continues to represent a strong sector for the study area, employing 19.1% of Stoke-on-Trent’s and 23.3% of Newcastle-under-Lyme’s working age population (relative to 17.5% in the West Midlands and 15.9% across the UK as a whole).14 Employment in this sector within Stoke-on-Trent continues to grow, having displayed 16.1% growth between 2009 and 201315, whilst over the same period employment within this sector in Newcastle-under- Lyme has fallen by 100 to 10,200.16

3.11 The LEP has identified sectors which it plans to foster growth within. These include the advanced manufacturing sectors of Energy Generation; Auto-Aero; Medical Technologies; Agri-Technologies; Agri-Tech and Applied Materials. In addition to these, the LEP plans to provide resources to encourage the advancement of two further growth sectors of Tourism & Leisure and Business & Professional Services which will “help to benchmark progress towards a more mature local economy”17. The LEP’s aim is to create a new CBD within Stoke-on-Trent which would have a “strong professional services offer”.18

3.12 Keele (within Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough) is home to a University as well as the Keele Science Park and the University’s School of Medicine. The area also hosts a cluster of medical and other health related technology firms. Accordingly, NLBC and the LEP have identified ‘Medical Technologies’ as one of their target sectors.

3.13 Whilst there has been a transition from manufacturing towards the service sector, this shift has specifically been towards distribution, consumer and public services. There has been a much lesser shift towards higher value financial and business services (particularly in Stoke-on-Trent).19 Indeed, BRES data shows that the SIC2007 category of ‘professional, scientific and technical activities’ contracted by 4.2% in Stoke-on-Trent (over the period 2009-2013), versus a 3.6% increase in North Staffordshire region, a 6.8% increase in the LEP area overall20 and an 11.6% increase in Newcastle-under- Lyme21.

13 Staffordshire County Council (2013) Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent Economic Review, page 5 14 ONS (2013) Business Register and Employment Survey 15 Jim Plunkett-Cole (2015) Strategic Analysis of Future Economic Growth Potential for Stoke-on-Trent, pg.47 16 ONS (2013) Business Register and Employment Survey 17 Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire LEP (2014) Strategic Economic Plan, paragraph 3.33 18 Ibid. 1.7 19 Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council and Stoke-on-Trent City Council (2009) Core Spatial Strategy 2006 -2026 paragraph 2.8 20 Jim Plunkett-Cole (2015) Strategic Analysis of Future Economic Growth Potential for Stoke-on-Trent, pg.47 21 ONS (2014) Business Register and Employment Survey

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3.14 Stoke-on-Trent has a higher proportion of residents employed in Public Administration and Defence (32% versus 29% and 28% for the West Midlands and Great Britain respectively), in contrast to Newcastle-under-Lyme (26%)22. Over the period 2009-2013 Stoke-on-Trent’s employment in this sector increased by 15%, in contrast to the LEP area where it contracted by 2%.23 Given further Government austerity cuts, the number of public sector employees looks set to fall over time. This increasing reliance on public sector employment is therefore likely to be unsustainable. Consequently the LEP identifies the need to create new private sector jobs in order to ‘rebalance’ the economy as a priority.

Labour Market

3.15 The economic activity rate (i.e. the proportion of working age residents in or seeking employment, used as a proxy of the size of an area’s labour supply) in Newcastle-under-Lyme is at 78%, higher than the regional average (75%) and broadly at the level of the national average (77%). The equivalent figure for Stoke-on-Trent, at 72%, is significantly lower than both averages.24 This indicates limited scope to expand local labour supply from among existing residents of Newcastle-under-Lyme, but greater scope to expand local labour supply among existing residents of Stoke-on-Trent.

Figure 3.2 Claimant unemployment Jan 2008 to Jan 2015

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0 %

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

July2008 July2009 July2010 July2011 July2012 July2013 July2014

May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014

March2008 March2009 March2010 March2011 March2012 March2013 March2014

January 2013 January 2008 January 2009 January 2010 January 2011 January 2012 January 2014 January 2015

November 2008 November 2014 November 2009 November 2010 November 2011 November 2012 November 2013

September2008 September2009 September2010 September2011 September2012 September2013 September2014

Newcastle Stoke Great Britain West Midlands

Source: ONS (2015) Claimant Count

3.16 According to the JSA Claimant Count, Newcastle-under-Lyme’s rate has historically been below that of the West Midlands and Great Britain as a whole, whereas Stoke-on-Trent’s has been above both regional and national

22 ONS (2013) Business Register and Employment Survey 23 Jim Plunkett-Cole (2015) Strategic Analysis of Future Economic Growth Potential for Stoke-on-Trent, pg.47 24 ONS (2015) Annual Population Survey

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averages. However, it should be noted that the rate in Stoke-on-Trent recently dropped to below that of the West Midlands average.

25 3.17 On the wider Annual Population Survey measure , both local authorities’ unemployment rates are higher than the claimant count, but follow similar patterns – Stoke-on-Trent’s rate (7.5%) is still above the West Midlands (6.8%) and national (6.2%) average, whilst Newcastle-under-Lyme’s rate (5.1%) is still below both.

3.18 The role of education and skills is vital for preparing the workforce for employment and ensuring that people have the right skills and qualifications to access high quality jobs and contribute to overall economic growth and increasing prosperity. Newcastle-under-Lyme’s resident workforce has higher than average skill levels when compared to the West Midlands region as a whole, with a higher proportion of NVQ4+ (graduate level) workers (31.6% compared to 28.3%), although this is still below the national average (35.1%). The authority has a broadly similar percentage of those without any formal qualifications as is seen across the country (9.9% versus 9.4% respectively). Stoke-on-Trent, however, has nearly twice the number of those without any formal qualifications compared to the national average, at 18.2%, which is also higher than the West Midlands average (13.6%). It also has a lower percentage of its workforce educated to NVQ4+ level (40.1%, compared to regional and national averages of 49.3% and 55.7% respectively).26

3.19 Stoke-on-Trent’s ‘skills gap’ (i.e. the relative scarcity of those with higher-level qualifications compared to the skill requirements of the jobs on offer) is harming the City’s growth prospects. The JELR (2011) recorded anecdotal evidence that specific major employers had chosen not to locate in Stoke-on- Trent due to concerns over the emerging skills base of younger members of the labour force.27

3.20 More recently stakeholders noted that a workforce that had higher skills would not only attract more firms to the region, it would also facilitate increased entrepreneurialism resulting in higher levels of GVA and increased prosperity.

3.21 The occupation profile of the workforce is broadly reflective of the level of skills within each Authority. For instance, Newcastle-under-Lyme has a slightly lower proportion of its workforce employed in highly-skilled occupations (SOC groups 1 to 3), compared to the national average but a higher percentage proportion relative to regional averages. The trends are reversed for lower/unskilled manual occupations (SOC groups 8 to 9).28

3.22 Stoke-on-Trent, in keeping with the average skills level of its workforce, has a greater proportion employed in lower and unskilled manual occupations (24.9%) relative to both regional and national averages (19.6% and 17.1%). It

25 This records all those searching for work but who are currently unemployed regardless of whether they are claiming jobseekers allowance or not 26 ONS (2014) Annual Population Survey 27 URS / Scott Wilson (2011) Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council and Stoke-on-Trent City Council Joint Employment Land Review, paragraph 3.2.20 28 ONS (2014) Annual Population Survey

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also has a lower proportion of people employed in highly skilled occupations (30.4%, versus 40.4 and 44.3% across the West Midlands and Great Britain as a whole).29

Figure 3.3 Qualifications of the labour force in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme

90

80

70

60

50

40

30 % of Working Age % ofWorking PopulationAge 20

10

0 NVQ4 And Above NVQ3 And Above NVQ2 And Above NVQ1 And Above No Qualifications

Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-Under-Lyme West Midlands UK

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey

3.23 Whilst median workplace-based wages (i.e. the wages of those who work but don’t necessarily live in the area) in Stoke-on-Trent are higher than regional averages, the wages of those who live within the area are below regional and national averages. The opposite is true for Newcastle-under-Lyme.30

3.24 Those who work in Newcastle-under-Lyme not only earn less, on average, than those who work elsewhere, but they also earn less than those who just reside in the Borough (Figure 3.4).31 This gap (which averages £21 a week) indicates the types of jobs available locally are much less well paid than elsewhere in the region and that many residents are commuting to higher paid jobs outside of the Borough.

3.25 Meanwhile wages for those who work in Stoke-on-Trent are, on average, over £22 higher per week relative to those who merely reside in the City, implying that there is a gap between the high paying jobs within the City (which are likely to be filled by commuters) and the jobs filled by local residents. This could indicate that the more highly skilled residents of Newcastle-under-Lyme are commuting into Stoke-on-Trent for work.

29 Ibid. 30 ONS (2014) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 31 Ibid.

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Figure 3.4 Mean Gross Weekly Earnings

420

400

380

360 Median Gross Weekly Pay (£)

340

320

Resident-based Workplace-based

Source: ONS (2014) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

Deprivation

3.26 Stoke-On-Trent’s inner-city areas and social housing estates on the edge of the City exhibit strong signs of deprivation. This manifests itself in high concentrations of unemployment (particularly amongst the young) and a skills gap – a problem identified by local employers, both in terms of higher level skills and basic employability skills.32 The deprived nature of Stoke-on-Trent is in sharp contrast to the more affluent rural areas towards the west of Newcastle-under-Lyme which offer an excellent quality of life and economic opportunities.33 This is illustrated on the 2015 IMD map at Figure 3.5. Stoke- on-Trent is ranked as the 16th most deprived local authority [LA] (out of the 326 LAs in the country) in 2015, compared to Newcastle-under-Lyme which ranks 150th. It should be noted that although Newcastle-under-Lyme is (on average) much less deprived than Stoke-on-Trent, there still are pockets of severe deprivation towards the east of the Borough (notably Newcastle and Kidsgrove).

32 Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire LEP (2012) Economic Growth Strategy, page 10 33 Ibid.

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Figure 3.5 2015 IMD Deprivation Map for Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-Under-Lyme

Source: CLG (2015): Indices of Deprivation

Locational Quotient Analysis

3.27 Figure 3.6 and Figure 3.7 assess Stoke-on-Trent’s and Newcastle-under- Lyme’s current sectoral strengths through the use of location quotients. These measure the proportion of employment in an industry at the local authority level relative to the regional average. In the graphs, the location quotients are shown using an orange bar. A value above 1.0 denotes a higher local representation of a sector compared to the West Midlands average, whilst anything below 1.0 signifies an under-representation. The further the orange bar is from 1.0, the greater the extent of any over or under-representation. In addition, the blue bars show the absolute level of employment within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme accounted for by each sector.

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Figure 3.6 Stoke-on-Trent Locational Quotient

Locational Quotient 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

Public Services

Professional & Other Private Services

Finance, Insurance & Pensions

Information & Communication

Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation

Transport & Storage

Number of Retail Jobs Locational Quotient Wholesale

Construction

Utilities (Gas, Water and Electric)

Manufacturing

Oil and Gas Extraction

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Jobs Source: Experian 2014 / NLP Analysis

Note: Dashed yellow line, where LQ equals 1, represents the West Midlands average

3.28 Whilst Stoke-on-Trent’s Utilities sector does not employ many people in absolute terms, it does show a high level of employment relative to other areas in the West Midlands (with a location quotient of 1.3). Conversely, whilst there are over 16,000 people employed within ‘Professional and Other Private

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Services’34, this does not represent a particularly high concentration (with a location quotient of 0.74) compared to the West Midlands average.

3.29 Another sector which has a strong concentration of employment both in absolute terms and relative to regional averages include ‘Public Services’35, with a location quotient of 1.14. The area’s reliance on public services may make it vulnerable to the Government’s continued austerity measures.

3.30 Within Stoke-on-Trent, sectors that perform well include Accommodation, Food Services and Recreation with a location quotient of 1.13. This sector includes Tourism, which the Stoke and Staffordshire LEP has identified as a key sector (along with Business/Professional Services and the five advanced manufacturing sectors they are targeting for growth) in their Strategic Economic Plan [SEP]36.

3.31 In Newcastle-under-Lyme, ‘Professional and Other Private Services’ employ fewer people relative to Stoke-on-Trent (around 8,000 compared to 16,000), due to its smaller economy. When the Borough’s location quotients are examined, Newcastle-under-Lyme’s representation is higher at 0.9, relative to that of Stoke-on-Trent’s (0.74), although both are below the regional average. Conversely, with regard to Public Services, Newcastle-under-Lyme has a lower location quotient and hence representation than Stoke-on-Trent (0.94 compared to 1.14).

3.32 ‘Transport and Storage’, ‘Retail’ and ‘Wholesale’ all employ fairly large numbers of people in the Borough and are strongly represented relative to other employment sectors within the West Midlands. Whilst ‘Manufacturing’ is still a significant employer in Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough, it is not as prevalent as it is within Stoke-on-Trent, with a lower location quotient (0.74 compared to Stoke-on-Trent’s 0.99).

34 This incorporates the SIC2 Codes of Professional Services, Real Estate, Administrative & Support Services and Other Private Services 35 This includes Public Administration & Defence, Education, Health and Residential Care & Social Work 36 Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire LEP (2014) Strategic Economic Plan, paragraph 2.4

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Figure 3.7 Newcastle-under-Lyme Locational Quotient

Locational Quotient 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

Public Services

Professional & Other Private Services

Finance, Insurance and Pensions

Information & communication

Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation

Transport + Storage

Number of Retail Jobs

Locational Quotient Wholesale

Construction

Utilities (Gas, Water and Electric)

Manufacturing

Oil and Gas Extraction

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 Jobs Source: Experian / NLP Analysis

Note: Dashed yellow line, where LQ = 1, represents the West Midlands average

Business Demography

3.33 Turning to business size in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme (Figure 3.8), both local authorities have a slightly lower proportion of small firms with 1-

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9 employees (83% and 86% respectively) than the regional and national averages (both 88%). Stoke-on-Trent also has a relatively higher proportion of large firms with more than 250 employees (0.6%) compared to Newcastle- under-Lyme (0.4%) and the regional and national averages of 0.4%.37

3.34 Feedback from stakeholders indicates that whilst there are some large companies based within the study area, many of these are indigenous, having started up and grown organically in the area. Other stakeholders noted a strong loyalty among local businesses and employees to remain within the area. For example, Bet365 and Autonet Insurance are both large firms which were founded in the Stoke-on-Trent area and remain there today.

Figure 3.8 Size of Businesses within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme

100%

98%

96%

94%

92%

90%

88%

86%

84%

82% Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-under-Lyme West Midlands Great Britain

Micro (0 to 9) Small (10 to 49) Medium-sized (50 to 249) Large (250+)

Source: ONS (2014) UK Business Counts: Enterprises

3.35 Both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme support relatively low levels of business start-ups, with just 54 new business registrations per 10,000 working age population inhabitants compared with 72 across the West Midlands and 86 across Great Britain.38 In terms of self-employment, Newcastle-under-Lyme has a similar rate (8.6%) to the West Midlands average (8.7%), although this is still below the national average of 10%. In Stoke-on- Trent, this is significantly lower at 6.9%.39 These indicators point towards limited levels of entrepreneurship in the local economy compared to other parts of the country.

3.36 Drawing on Inter-Departmental Business Register [IDBR] data, the spatial distribution of key business clusters within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme is presented in Figure 3.9 and Figure 3.10. This data has been analysed to identify any inconsistencies or anomalies which may affect future modelling; any examples of agglomeration economics; and clustering of businesses in ‘sector hubs’.

37 ONS (2014) IDBR 38 ONS (2013) Business Demography Statistics 39 ONS (2014) Annual Population Survey

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Figure 3.9 Spatial Distribution of Business Sectors and Employment in Stoke-on-Trent

Source: IDBR (2015) / NLP Analysis

Note: IDBR data does not record smaller businesses that fall under the VAT threshold

3.37 As Figure 3.9 indicates, there is a diverse mix of business sectors within Stoke- on-Trent, with concentrations scattered around the city due to the historic growth and development of the six towns. However, the principal employment areas that have seen development over the last 10 to 20 years are primarily situated along the A500 and A50 corridors.

3.38 Hanley is the principal City Centre within the urban conurbation accommodating the main shopping centre, which is borne out by the large concentration of ‘Wholesale and Retail’ as well as ‘Accommodation, Food Services and Recreation’ firms. The city centre is also the focus of a new office led mixed use Central Business District branded Smithfield, which can be seen by the collection of ‘Professional and Other Private Services’ firms.

3.39 Large manufacturing employers tend to cluster around the industrial estates north of the city centre (in Burslem around the A500), as well as to the south of the city centre around the A50.

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Figure 3.10 Spatial Distribution of Business Sectors and Employment in Newcastle-under-Lyme

Source: IDBR (2015) / NLP Analysis

Note: IDBR data does not record smaller businesses that fall under the VAT threshold

3.40 For Newcastle-under-Lyme, Figure 3.10 indicates that the vast majority of business activity located within the Borough is concentrated along the eastern edge, the Town Centre and in the north eastern settlement of Kidsgrove.

3.41 Newcastle-under-Lyme town centre accommodates a mix of retail, office and leisure facilities as well as Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation businesses. Whilst the land lying to the immediate north and south of the town is primarily residential, there are some smaller scale industrial estates lying to the west of the Town Centre at Silverdale. The main industrial and business parks lie to the north of the town along the A34 Corridor.

Knowledge-Based Industries

3.42 Around 17.3% of businesses within Newcastle-under-Lyme were classified as knowledge-based in 2008, whilst the equivalent figure in Stoke-on-Trent was only 13%. Knowledge-based industries are those sectors where added value is derived from the accumulation of knowledge, often fostered through innovative activities and the increasing use of technology. Such sectors tend to have more growth potential and can signal an economy’s competitiveness. A comparison between the share of knowledge-based industries in Stoke-on- Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme and other local authorities within Staffordshire is presented within Table 3.1.

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Table 3.1 Share of Knowledge-Based Businesses, 2010

Knowledge-Based Businesses (% Rank Area of Total Businesses) 1 Great Britain 21.8 2 Lichfield 21.0 3 East Staffordshire 18.8 4 Stafford 18.8 5 South Staffordshire 17.7 6 Tamworth 17.6 7 Newcastle-under-Lyme 17.6 8 Staffordshire Moorlands 13.9 9 Stoke-on-Trent 13.0 10 Cannock Chase 12.9

Source: UK Competitiveness Index 2010 / NLP Analysis (data from 2008 but published in 2010)

Functional Economic Market Area

3.43 This section provides a broad overview of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme and their likely position within a wider or a standalone Functional Economic Market Area [FEMA] looking at local authority level data for commuting. The following provides up-to-date analysis of the extent of the FEMA, in accordance with the Practice Guidance, using the latest 2011 Census data on migration and commuting rates.

3.44 The Practice Guidance provides advice on how a FEMA can be defined. It states that the geography of commercial property markets should be thought of in terms of the requirements of the market regarding the location of premises and the spatial factors used in analysing demand and supply. The Practice Guidance goes on to state that since patterns of economic activity vary from place to place, there is no standard approach to defining a FEMA, however, it is possible to define FEMAs taking account of factors including travel to work areas and housing market areas.40

3.45 More detailed guidance on how to define a FEMA is provided by the CLG, which states that examining commuting flows can help to define the functional economic market area of an economy.41 These commuting flows can be assessed using the latest travel-to-work flow data from the 2011 Census.

3.46 At the time of the 2011 Census, 40,053 residents commuted into Stoke-on- Trent daily against 33,945 out-commuters, giving a net total of 6,108 in- commuters. The City demonstrates high levels of net in-commuting from Staffordshire Moorlands as well as Newcastle-under-Lyme.

3.47 With regard to Newcastle-under-Lyme, 21,480 residents commute into the Borough daily (many from Stoke-on-Trent), against 29,538 commuting out, giving a net total of 8,058 out-commuters. A high level of commuting also

40 Planning Practice Guidance (2014) §2a-012-20140306 41 CLG (2010) Functional Economic Market Areas: An Economic Note

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exists between the two authorities and Staffordshire Moorlands, Cheshire East and Stafford (Figure 3.11).

Figure 3.11 Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme travel-to-work linkages, 2011

Source: Census 2011 / NLP Analysis

3.48 The ONS defines labour market areas as those areas where the bulk of the resident population also work. Defining labour market areas requires an analysis of commuting patterns to identify Travel to Work Areas [TTWAs] for local economies. The current criteria for defining TTWAs is that generally at least 75% of an area's resident workforce work in the area and at least 75% of the people who work in the area also live in the area. The area must also have a working population of at least 3,500.

3.49 Applying this methodology to the 2011 Census, it is possible to determine whether Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme or the two authorities together represent a TTWA. The results are presented in Table 3.2.

3.50 The table indicates that neither of the districts in isolation could be said to represent a FEMA. However, when the commuting statistics of both districts are grouped together they do form a self-contained FEMA - around 79% of locally employed residents also work in the area. For the alternative test (which measures the number of employed residents as a percentage of all jobs in the area) the rate is higher, at around 80%.

3.51 Additionally, it is noted that the results of the Business Survey (addressed in Section 6.0) suggest that of the local firms looking to relocate in the next five to ten years, 95% of them intend to stay within the Study area. Businesses and agents confirmed that they view Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent as one coterminous area rather than two separate entities. This further

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strengthens the case for considering the Study area to represent a self- contained FEMA.

Table 3.2 2011 Commuting Data FEMA Test Resident FEMA Test Live and Workplace Net (live and workforce (working work in LA population migration work in population and live) same area)

Stoke 74,593 108,538 114,646 6,108 68.7% 65.1%

Newcastle 28,104 57,642 49,584 -8,058 48.8% 56.7%

Stoke and 130,690 166,180 164,230 -1,950 78.6% 79.6% Newcastle

Source: ONS Census (2011)

SWOT Analysis

3.52 Drawing together the above analysis, the study area’s economic strengths and weaknesses, together with the potential opportunities and threats which will influence future demand for employment space, are summarised in Table 3.3. Table 3.3 SWOT Analysis of the Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme Economy

Current Strengths Current Weaknesses

 Strong connectivity, benefiting from a  Severe road congestion exists within both local authorities strategic location at the centre of the UK with access to excellent road (M6, A50,  Stoke-on-Trent suffers from poor education levels and skill A500) and rail (West Coast Main Line) links levels are considerably lower than both regional and national averages  Successful industries such as logistics created in the wake of a declining  Poor rates of entrepreneurial activity, in terms of a lower manufacturing base rate of small businesses within both authorities relative than regional / national averages, and a lower rate of self-  Newcastle-under-Lyme claimant count employment in Stoke relative to regional and national lower than regional and national averages averages  Median workplace wages in Stoke-on-Trent  Stoke-on-Trent’s JSA claimant count is higher than both higher than regional averages regional and national averages  Keele University provides research and  The gap between Stoke-on-Trent’s resident and workplace innovation to firms within the study area wages implies a disconnect between the quality of employment available to commuters travelling into the  The physical environment, particularly Districts and those who are resident in them within rural areas, provides good places to live and visit  Median workplace wages in Newcastle-under-Lyme are significantly below regional and national averages  Businesses and workers feel loyal to the area  Both authorities exhibit pockets of severe deprivation and Stoke is in the bottom 20 nationally  Sub-standard retail offer in Newcastle-under-Lyme leads to poor comparison retention rates42

42 Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council (2011) Retail & Leisure Study, pg.17

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Current Opportunities Current Threats

 Strengthening the links between the two  Continued congestion within built-up areas in both authorities and the surrounding areas has authorities constrains growth the potential to lead to greater prosperity, reductions in deprivation and the provision  Stoke-on-Trent’s low skill levels may continue to deter of wider benefits for the region as a whole businesses from investing in the area and could constrain growth in identified priority sectors  Low economic activity rates in Stoke-on- Trent present the opportunity to expand  The vitality and quality of urban environment threatens to local labour supply from current residents constrain the area’s ability to attract/retain higher skilled residents  LEP’s priority in developing sectors (Advanced Material, Advanced  Cutbacks in public sector employment looks set to Manufacturing and Energy) which display continue, threatening both policy initiatives (i.e. to improve competitive advantage, driving higher skills levels) and public sector employment levels of GVA and productivity  Failure to deliver an improved retail and leisure offer within Newcastle-under-Lyme may lead to further expenditure  Harness the untapped comparison retail demand within Newcastle-under-Lyme to leakage elsewhere improve retention rates  Continued macro-economic uncertainty regarding Greece and the wider EuroZone  Cheshire East is proposing a revised housing figure of 36,000 dwellings in its Local Plan (an increase of 9,000 compared to the submitted Local Plan) – which may lead to higher levels of migration from the Study area.

Source: NLP analysis

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4.0 Overview of Employment Space

Introduction

4.1 This section provides an overview of the current stock of employment space in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, and recent trends and changes to the supply of this space. Both the amount of employment land and the quantity of built employment floorspace are considered across the main types of employment uses i.e. offices/research and development (use class B1(a/b)), warehousing/distribution (B8) and manufacturing industry (B1(c)/B2). This analysis is based on data from the following sources: 1 commercial floorspace data from the ONS and Valuation Office Agency (VOA); 2 Stoke-on-Trent City Council’s and Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council’s monitoring data on commercial space; and, 3 ‘Make It Stoke-on-Trent & Staffordshire’ commercial property database and other commercial property sources.

Current Stock of Employment Space

4.2 In 2012, Stoke-on-Trent contained some 2.9 million sqm of B class floorspace whilst Newcastle-under-Lyme had 1 million sqm.43 A breakdown of this space by main uses is shown in Figure 4.1. This indicates that the supply of employment space in both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme is dominated by industrial uses (manufacturing and distribution/warehousing) which accounts for 70% of total stock in both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme. This is higher than both the regional average (66%) and the rate observed across England as a whole (56%).

4.3 In contrast, the commercial office stock in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme amounts to just 7% and 8% of total employment space respectively. Relative to regional and national averages, Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme have a slightly lower proportion of office stock than within the West Midlands (10%), and an even lower level relative to the country as a whole (16%).

43 VOA (2012) Business Floorspace

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Figure 4.1 Employment Floorspace – Percentage of Total Stock

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40% % % oftotal stock

30%

20%

10%

0% Stoke-on-Trent UA Newcastle-under-Lyme West Midlands England

Offices Industrial Other (Inc Retail)

Source: VOA (2012) / NLP analysis

4.4 Commercial office floorspace in both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme increased over the 12 year period 2000-2012 by 27% and 18% respectively according to published VOA data (Figure 4.2). These compare favourably to the regional and national average growth rates of 18% and 16% respectively.

Figure 4.2 Change in Business Floorspace in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, 2000-2012

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000 Total Stock ('000s m2)

500

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Stoke (Industrial) Newcastle (Industrial) Stoke (Office) Newcastle (Office)

Source: VOA Business Floorspace Statistics (2012) / NLP analysis

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4.5 However, an analysis of total industrial space shows a different picture. Whilst the West Midlands and England as a whole have witnessed an overall decline in industrial floorspace (-6% and -3% respectively over the 12 year period 2000-2012), over the same period Stoke-on-Trent has seen a much larger reduction in industrial floorspace, contracting by 25%, whilst Newcastle-under- Lyme’s has increased by 22% (despite its total stock being much smaller than Stoke-on-Trent’s in absolute number terms).

4.6 Figure 4.3 and Figure 4.4 show the distribution of B class employment space across Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme using latest available VOA data. This indicates that within Stoke-on-Trent the office stock is predominantly concentrated within the commercial/City Centre of Hanley. Large factory spaces are clustered towards the south of the City Centre in areas such as Trentham, as well as along the key A50 corridor. Warehouses are scattered across the City with a particular concentration towards the south of the City Centre and around Burslem to the north.

Figure 4.3 Spatial Distribution of Employment Floorspace in Stoke-on-Trent

Source: VOA 2010 / NLP analysis

4.7 With regards to Newcastle-under-Lyme, Figure 4.3 indicates that the Borough has significantly less employment space than Stoke-on-Trent. In Newcastle- under-Lyme employment space tends to be concentrated in and around the town centre to the east, with the rest of the Borough being less developed due

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to its more rural nature. This is in contrast to Stoke-on-Trent, whose employment space is more evenly spread throughout the City.

4.8 The office stock that does exist within Newcastle-under-Lyme is located towards the south of the town centre, whereas industrial and warehousing stock is clustered around the A34 running north through the town centre along with Lymedale Business Park.

Figure 4.4 Spatial Distribution of Employment Floorspace in Newcastle-under-Lyme

Source: VOA 2010 / NLP analysis

Vacancy

4.9 A review of the commercial property database on ‘Make It Stoke-on-Trent & Staffordshire’ indicates that, as of April 2015, approximately 65,000 sq m of office space was available across Stoke-on-Trent and approximately 24,500 sqm of office space in Newcastle-under-Lyme. Compared with a total office stock of approximately 220,000 sq m in Stoke-on-Trent and 100,000 sq m in Newcastle-under-Lyme, this indicates a vacancy level of just under 30% for Stoke-on-Trent and 25% for Newcastle-under-Lyme. 44

4.10 For industrial premises, the equivalent figures are 14% for Stoke-on-Trent (270,000 sqm being marketed out of a total stock of approximately 2,000,000 sqm) and 15% for Newcastle-under-Lyme (130,000 sqm being marketed from a total stock of 880,000 sqm).

44 Total office and industrial stock gathered from the VOA database.

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45 4.11 A typical ‘liquid’ market usually displays vacancy rates of around 8-10%, so the vacancy rates displayed in both areas suggests there is a large oversupply of both offices and industrial premises relative to demand, although the oversupply is most severe for office stock.

Development Rates

46 4.12 As recommended by the Practice Guidance , examining the rate of employment land development (‘take up’) which has been delivered in the past can provide a useful guide when trying to project the necessary rate of employment land provision in the future. In order to do this, monitoring data from both STCC and NLBC has been examined. The challenge is ascertaining the extent to which past trends represent a viable basis for projecting growth in the future, hence consideration must be given to whether any abnormal policy/recessionary /investment influences were operating which distorted the underlying market.

4.13 During the Trentham Lakes appeal, Stoke-on-Trent’s monitoring data was examined. The appellants’ presented analysis which indicated the actual levels of take up of marketed employment land was smaller than the total development recorded, with errors identified in recording take up, alongside the accounting of changes of use and double counting.

4.14 The Inspector specifically highlighted a case of business expansion at Johnson Tiles, for which the Council’s entry for 2010/11 and 2011/12 was 8.7ha whereas the actual size of the extension was around 10,903sqm (1.09ha) and was located within the existing site area.47

4.15 Cognisant of the Inspector’s Report for the Trentham Lakes appeal, which raised concerns about the JELR’s use of inaccurate data on past take-up rates, a more detailed analysis of historic employment land delivery within Stoke-on- Trent has been undertaken using information provided by STCC. In addition to data on the level of development within Stoke-on-Trent over the last 8 years, information has been cross-referenced against monitoring data the authority had recorded as part of the Regional Employment Land Survey (RELS) in addition to records held by the authority on non-residential planning applications.

4.16 The gross amount of floorspace developed for employment uses in Stoke-on- Trent over the last 10 years is shown in Figure 4.5.

45 This refers to a market with a suitable number of premises available for firms to relocate and expand into. 46 2a-032-20140306 47 The Planning Inspectorate (2014) Land at Trentham Lakes Appeal Decision, paragraph 26

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Figure 4.5 Stoke-on-Trent Gross Development Rates 2004/5 – 2013/14

40

35

30

25

20

15 GrossCompletions (ha)

10

5

0 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/08 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

B1 B2 B8 Mixed Annual Average Take Up

Source: Stoke-on-Trent City Council Monitoring Data / NLP analysis

4.17 This indicates that just under 10 ha of gross B Class space was developed per annum across Stoke-on-Trent between 2004/5 and 2013/14 (although this average has been skewed by the extremely high level of B8 development in 2005/6 and B2 development in 2008/09).

4.18 Nearly 43% of new floorspace was development for B8 distribution uses, just under a third (29%) was developed for factory/industrial (B2) uses, under a fifth (16%) was developed for office use, and the remainder (11%) was developed for mixed uses.

4.19 However, it should be noted that the past take up data held by STCC has been challenged recently at the Trentham Lakes Appeal48. The appellants (St Modwens) undertook a detailed analysis of the Council’s past take up evidence which was used to underpin the previous 2011 JELR. In particular, Jones Lang LaSalle, on behalf of St Modwens, challenged the take up of employment land reported by STCC for 2011 and 2012, of 11.98 ha and 14.8 ha respectively. Having reviewed all the sites listed, the consultants concluded that a revised total of 5.62 ha had been delivered (of which 4.07 ha was actually completed in 2010) compared with the Council’s total for the 2 years of 26.78 ha.

4.20 This has knock-on effects for assessing the future land requirements for the authority, which is discussed further in Section 8.0.

4.21 The gross amount of floorspace developed for employment uses in Newcastle- under-Lyme over a ten year period is shown in Figure 4.6.

48Appeal Ref: APP/M3455/A/13/2199404

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Figure 4.6 Newcastle-under-Lyme Gross Development Rates 2004/5 – 2013/14

35

30

25

20

15

GrossCompletions (ha) 10

5

0 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/08 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

B1a/B1b B1c/B2 B8 Mixed Annual Average Take Up

Source: Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council Monitoring Data / NLP analysis

4.22 Figure 4.6 indicates that an average of 7.4 ha of (gross) B-Class space was developed per annum across the Borough in the ten-year period between 2004/5 and 2013/14. 68% of new floorspace was developed for B8 distribution uses, 15% for mixed uses, 10% for B1c and B2 factory/industrial uses, and just under 7% for B1a/B1b office uses.

4.23 There was relatively strong development of employment land in the years prior to the recession. Developments completed during this period included the B2 / B8 North Staffordshire Regeneration Zone initiative as well as several business centres for new start-ups and SMEs. This included Lymedale Business Centre, the development of which was supported by Staffordshire County Council and leveraged regeneration funding from European and Regional Development Agency [RDA] sources.

4.24 As Figure 4.6 illustrates, the onset of the recession subdued the development of employment land within Newcastle-under-Lyme. Total gross completions for 2008/09 were around 18.68 ha, which fell to just 1.91 ha the year after, and have remained very low ever since.

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Losses of Employment Space

Figure 4.7 Stoke-on-Trent B-Class Losses by year (2004/05 – 2013/14)

35

30

25

20

15 Losses (ha)

10

5

0 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/08 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Source: Stoke-on-Trent Monitoring Data / NLP analysis

4.25 Figure 4.7 illustrates the rate of losses of employment land to other (non-B- class) uses in Stoke-on-Trent. It can be seen that, prior to the recession, the loss of B-class employment land in Stoke-on-Trent was extremely high, reaching over 33 ha in 2006/07. Whilst following the recession this high rate of loss reduced, over the 12-year period examined an average of 9.3 ha has been lost per year across the City, 99.5% of which related to Mixed B2/B8 (whereas just 0.5% related to B1a).

4.26 In comparison NLBC’s monitoring data indicates that past losses of employment land to other (non B-class) uses have averaged just 0.67 ha a year (Figure 4.8). The two earliest years examined, 2004/05 and 2005/06, stand out as recording significant losses for B-class use. Losses over this period averaged 2.3 ha, over three times the average annual rate (over the ten years examined). Around 18% of losses have related to office use classes (B1a/b) whereas the remaining 82% have related to industrial/warehousing use classes (B1c/B2/B8).

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Figure 4.8 Newcastle-under-Lyme B-Class Losses by year (2004/5 – 2013/14)

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5 Losses (ha)Losses

1.0

0.5

0.0 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/08 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

B1a/B1b B1c/B2 B8 Annual Average

Source: Newcastle-under-Lyme Monitoring Data / NLP analysis

Employment Space in Adjoining Areas

4.27 It is also important to understand the extent of available employment land in adjoining local authorities and any major new economic developments coming forward there which might compete with the study area for future demand. A brief review has therefore been undertaken (below) of the current position in each area, with further details for each local authority presented in Appendix 2.

Cheshire East

4.28 The Cheshire East ELR (2012) identified that between 300 ha and 351 ha of employment land could be required in the Borough over the period 2010 to 2030. However, further work has recently taken place in advance of the Examination into the Local Plan Strategy resuming. The Council now proposes to adopt a revised employment forecast of 31,400 additional jobs (2010 -2030) at an annual economic growth rate of 0.7% requiring the provision of 378 ha of employment land. This was rounded up by AECOM in the Spatial Distribution Update Report to a need for 380 ha of employment land during the plan period, i.e. an additional 29 ha of employment land.

4.29 Planning policies in the Local Plan Strategy [LPS] Submission identify potential new sites as well as indicating which existing key employment sites should be retained that might otherwise be lost to alternative uses. Indicative levels of development in the submitted LPS are weighted towards development taking place in the South. In particular, it relies on a number of key strategic employment sites, including two sites just across the boundary in Alsager - Radway Green Extension (c. 25 ha) and Radway Green Brownfield (10 ha) and two in Congleton North (20 ha). The recommended distribution of

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employment land across the Borough is as follows: Principal Towns (80 ha); Key Service Centres (188 ha) and elsewhere (83 ha). With regards to the distribution of the additional 29 ha, the Alignment of Economic, Employment and Housing Strategy Report makes the case, at a strategic level, for allocating a substantial proportion of any additional land to the north of the Borough.

Stafford

4.30 The Stafford Local Plan (Plan for Stafford) states that provision will be made for 8 ha per year of additional employment land over the Plan period, equating to a total of 160 ha between 2011 and 2031. This is to be distributed as follows: Stafford (90 ha); Stone (20 ha); and the rest of the Borough (50 ha). Policies generally seek to resist the loss of employment land to other uses.

4.31 The Plan identifies Hadleigh Park (Former Creda Works Ltd) at Blythe Bridge as a Major Developed Site in the Green Belt where limited infilling or the partial or complete redevelopment will be supported for employment purposes. This site is a short distance away from the Blythe Bridge Regional Investment Site within Staffordshire Moorlands District Council’s area. The Local Plan also identifies a Strategic Development Location (at least 18 ha) for a new employment site to the south of Stone Business Park. It is understood that there are currently no other cross boundary sites or on-going work between the Council and STCC or NLBC in relation to delivering employment land and inward investment initiatives.

Staffordshire Moorlands

4.32 The joint High Peak and Staffordshire Moorlands Employment Land Review (2014) determined the need for between 25 ha – 45 ha of employment land between 2011 and 2031.

4.33 The 50 ha strategic site at Blythe Bridge (which is located in close proximity to the Stoke-on-Trent boundary) was designed to meet the inward investment needs of the Stoke/Newcastle conurbation in the early 1990s. This site continues to have outline planning permission until 2022.

4.34 An application for a large mixed-use site (with both employment and residential uses) in the area of Cresswell, close to the Stoke-on-Trent boundary, was approved in September 2014. If this development is completed, the size of it means that the single development could use the District’s entire allocation of rural employment land. It is understood that there are currently no other cross boundary sites or on-going work between the Council and STCC or NLBC in relation to delivering employment land and inward investment initiatives.

Shropshire

4.35 Shropshire’s Core Strategy Policy CS14 (based on the 2011 Employment Land Review) determined the need for 290 ha of employment land between 2006 and 2026. The Council has indicated that no land will need to be provided in either STCC or NLBC to cater for Shropshire’s employment land demand.

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4.36 Whilst a Müller industrial and distribution plant located in Market Drayton (close to the Newcastle-under-Lyme border) employs a large number of staff and has commuting implications for the NLBC, it is understood that there are currently no other cross boundary sites or on-going work between the Council and STCC or NLBC in relation to delivering employment land and inward investment initiatives.

Changing Requirements for Employment Space

4.37 Given that this study assesses Stoke-on-Trent’s and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s business needs over the longer term, it is relevant to consider some of the key drivers and macro trends that are likely to influence the type, scale and locational requirements for employment space in both authorities over this period. Because it is impossible to know precisely what impact they will have, it will be important to closely monitor their implications within the context of both authorities’ evolving portfolio of land and sites for business.

4.38 These trends, as set out below, mainly relate to office occupier requirements. Aside from the use of increasingly advanced technologies and resulting efficiencies, the nature of industrial activity in future is not expected to have a significant impact upon spatial requirements for workspace. These trends should also be considered within the context of increasing flexibility in the way in which workspace is used, whereby business activity and operations do not always align neatly with any one particular use class.

Space-Less Growth

4.39 At the national level, long-term trends show the growth in the number of office workers outpacing office floorspace, particularly over the past decade. As a result, the density ratio of sq.m per employee has declined, partly due to technology with devices such as computers having reduced in size making it possible for workspaces to become smaller and more compact. Conversations with stakeholders, as part of this study, confirm that this too appears to be the case in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme. Use of office floorspace has become increasingly efficient (with many stakeholders citing practices such as ‘hot-desking’, and the increasing tendency for employees to work from home (see below), sometimes configured to allow dedicated, complimentary space for leisure, amenities and collaborative workspace.

Homeworking

4.40 An improvement to broadband connectivity combined with more tolerance of working remotely by employers has led to a rise in the levels of home working in the UK. According to the ONS, the number of homeworkers in the UK amounted to 4.2 million in the first three months of 2014, equivalent to 13.9% of the total workforce. Businesses are increasingly adapting their practices to account for the varying lifestyle of modern workers, many of whom often need to balance flexible working hours with family commitments and busy social schedules.

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4.41 The changing attitudes towards homeworking have had an impact on space requirements across some sectors. For some companies, increased levels of remote working can lead to a reduction in the proportion of permanent or formal desk space required and the introduction of hot desking/hoteling systems in the office.

Urban Tendency/Centralising Trend

4.42 Office location preferences are changing. There is growing demand for more central locations that have good public transport links and access to a range of amenities such as leisure and retail. Many businesses are attracted to these locations as they offer access to a large pool of potential labour. They are seen as vibrant and attractive places to work by prospective employees.

4.43 Both authorities hope to grow employment within knowledge-based, service sector industries such as financial and business services, technology and digital media/creative firms. Purpose built ‘innovation centres’ (such as Keele Science Park in Newcastle-under-Lyme) are particularly favoured by these sectors, as they benefit from agglomeration economies and clustering effects of shared inputs such as labour and knowledge as well as the exchange of ideas and innovation. Stakeholders spoke of businesses which have seen increased success having moved to these business ‘hubs’, in which they are surrounded by other firms in similar fields. At the same time, out-of-town business parks that are only accessible by cars are no longer the preferred option for many businesses and workers. This may prove an issue for Stoke- on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, as the ‘out-of-town business parks’ (such as Festival Park and Chatterley Valley) was one area of the commercial property market that had seen strong growth in the recent past.

Technology

4.44 Increasingly sophisticated technology is changing the way in which firms and employees interact with each other and reducing the need for a fixed workplace. For instance, mobile and wireless technology allows information to be accessed almost anywhere from a single platform while video conferencing negates the requirement for face-to-face interaction in many situations. The traditional ‘desk’ can be situated almost anywhere, whether inside a building, in a café, on the move, or in a public open space. Furthermore, cloud computing enables IT services to be piped into an office building though the internet, reducing the space required by a building’s IT infrastructure, moving it into specialist data centres.

Rise of the Self-Employed

4.45 Self-employment is at its highest level for 40 years according to data from the ONS, at 10% of the total UK workforce. Since 2008 there has been a significant growth in self-employment, with two thirds of all employment growth relating to this group.

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4.46 While the most common jobs for the self-employed are in construction, taxi driving and carpentry, over the past five years there has also been significant growth in self-employment among industries such as management consultancy, information technology and chartered accountants – professions that typically have some requirement for office space. The implication is that these self-employed workers will either work from home (see above) or seek more formal, small scale workspaces for example with access to shared facilities and opportunities to collaborate with like-minded entrepreneurs.

4.47 Relative to the national and the West Midlands averages (10% and 8.7% respectively) self-employment within Stoke-on-Trent is low (7%). Whilst the rate in Newcastle-under-Lyme is closer to the regional average (8.6%), this indicates a large degree of scope in both authorities (but particularly Stoke-on- Trent) to expand employment within this area, a measure which is often used as a proxy for an area’s overall level of entrepreneurship.

Conclusions

4.48 In summary, Stoke-on-Trent’s and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s employment space is dominated by industrial uses which account for around 70% of total employment floorspace. In contrast, the study area’s commercial office stock amounts to just 8% of total employment space.

4.49 The vast majority of B-class completions in Stoke-on-Trent over recent years has consisted of B8 units. However, following the recession there has been a drop in the rates of B-class development across the board. Likewise, there has been very little development over the past five years in Newcastle-under-Lyme, which was preceded by two years of extremely high B1c/B2 manufacturing uses and B8 warehousing development skewing the figures. Stoke-on-Trent has seen significant losses of B-class employment land which, despite having reduced since the recession, continues to be high. Comparatively, losses within Newcastle-under-Lyme are much lower.

4.50 Despite the extent of losses in both authorities, the total stock of office floorspace in both authorities is increasing. The level of industrial floorspace in Newcastle-under-Lyme is also increasing whereas in Stoke-on-Trent it is falling. Overall, vacancies in both industrial and office space across the two authorities is higher than ‘liquid’ market levels, suggesting an oversupply relative to demand.

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5.0 Stakeholder Consultation

Introduction

5.1 Stakeholder consultation is vital for commercially realistic and robust outputs, particularly when it must be defensible in EIPs and planning inquiries. In this situation, significant weight has been given to views of local businesses, local agents, economic development officers, surrounding local authorities and other key stakeholders.

Employment Land Stakeholder Consultation

5.2 One of the key criticisms of the JELR, made by the Inspector for the Trentham Lakes appeal, was that no surveys of existing businesses had taken place to determine the likely future aspirations and demands of existing businesses to relate to news sites and premises. A further criticism of the Inspector was that the JELR was not subject to public consultation.

5.3 By way of addressing the mistakes of the JELR, this ELR has been informed by a business survey, workshop and telephone interviews with a range of public and private sector stakeholders. The feedback received from this consultation exercise has subsequently informed several sections of the ELR.

5.4 Early telephone consultation with key stakeholders (representatives from business organisations such as the LEP and Chamber of Commerce, along with major landowners and developers) helped to form a view on fundamental economic issues, delivery assumptions, gaps in the market, constraints, market failure, and opportunities in the area. Discussions also took place with the Councils’ Economic Development Officers to help identify the policy initiatives and sectors which present significant opportunities for economic growth, the details of which are outlined in the ‘Policy-On’ scenario (as detailed in section 8).

5.5 In addition, a business survey was undertaken, in order to gain a better understanding of the needs of businesses operating within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and the main factors that support and inhibit business growth. The questionnaires were sent to key local businesses in May 2015 and sought feedback on a number of issues including: 1 future expansion plans; 2 the locational requirements of particular types of business; 3 the suitability of their existing sites and availability of land for future expansion; and, 4 the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the two local authority areas as business locations.

5.6 A summary of the business survey’s key findings are set out in the next chapter, with a selection of business quotes presented in Appendix 1.

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5.7 Business enquires obtained from Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s inward investment agency (detailed in a later section) were also examined to help further understand the market in relation to economic uses and requirements.

th 5.8 A stakeholder workshop was held on the 9 July 2015, with a range of stakeholders, in order to introduce the study and present: the area’s key issues; general methodology; and emerging findings, including the preliminary results of the economic forecasting; and the likely implications for future economic growth. A range of developers, agents, planners and other business partnerships/organisations active in the area attended, and further consultation took place on the key issues raised by our initial analysis.

5.9 This consultation provided a wider view of economic potential and market demand than statistical data or employment forecasts, which are not always a reliable indicator of employment land needs at local levels. The main findings of this consultation are set out in various sections of this study and have helped to inform the conclusions and recommendations set out in Section 10.0.

5.10 A list of consultees who have participated in, and informed, the Study is included in Appendix 3.

5.11 In accordance with the Duty to Co-operate, consultation has taken place with adjoining local authorities. The purpose of this was to identify cross boundary work being undertaken and to understand the extent of their employment land portfolio and any major new economic developments which might compete with Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme for future demand. Local Authorities consulted as part of this process include: Cheshire East, Stafford, Staffordshire Moorlands and Shropshire. Details of these discussions are presented at the end of the previous chapter and in Appendix 2.

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6.0 Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme Commercial Property Market

Introduction

6.1 This section describes current property market conditions in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and their relationship with surrounding areas, including recent trends in the demand and supply of office and industrial premises. The findings are based upon market intelligence and discussions with a number of commercial property agents currently active in the area. They are also supplemented with the results of a business survey and business enquiries data.

Overview

6.2 The UK commercial property market continues to recover from the financial crisis of 2007/8 and the ensuing recession and property slump. Falls in capital values and rental levels for both office and industrial premises fell significantly (by up to 40%) as a result of the significant reduction in occupier demand for commercial space. During the recession, stricter lending criteria from banks and the abolition of tax relief on commercial property rates made it difficult for property development to be financially viable.

6.3 Only now, in 2015, are we starting to see some new build development taking place in North Staffordshire. However, this construction is to meet the requirements of committed end users, thereby removing risk and uncertainty. Since 2008 there has been no speculative development in North Staffordshire. Whilst limited speculative development has taken place during the last year in the wider Midlands market, in prime locations such as Birmingham and Coventry, this increased developer confidence has not yet filtered into more economically marginal locations such as Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme.

Market Geography

Stoke-on-Trent

6.4 Stoke-on-Trent principally lies to the east of the A500 which links Junctions 15 and 16 of the M6 motorway. The geography is fragmented due to the area being an amalgamation of six towns (Tunstall, Burslem, Stoke, Fenton, Meir, Longton) alongside Stoke City Centre. These have all grown and expanded creating the current urban conurbation. Historically, each town had an element of retail within the town centre and a mixture of industrial uses beyond, with one of the most significant historic uses being the pottery and ceramics industry.

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6.5 Hanley has now been identified as the principal City Centre within the urban conurbation, accommodating the main shopping centre (Potteries Shopping Centre). The surrounding towns offer smaller town centre / neighbourhood / out of town retail parks. The City Centre is also the focus of a new office-led mixed-use Central Business District branded Smithfield and Stoke-on-Trent City Council is set to relocate some of its service delivery functions to No. 1 Smithfield.

6.6 Employment land within Stoke-on-Trent is spread across the urban area due to the historic growth and development of Stoke City Centre and the six towns; however, the principal employment areas that have seen recent development are primarily situated along the A500 and A50 corridors. There is limited rural business space within Stoke-on-Trent.

6.7 Strategic access to Stoke-on-Trent is good due to the proximity of the M6 Motorway accessed via Junctions 15 and 16. The A50 dual carriageway also provides excellent road connections through Longton, Meir and Blythe Bridge, ultimately providing access to the East Midlands and the M1 Motorway. Stoke- on-Trent is connected to the West Coast main line with the main station situated near Stoke Town Centre which provides regular trains to Manchester, Birmingham and London.

6.8 Inward investment in the industrial sector has been particularly strong for large high bay warehouses, due to the excellent connectivity of the strategic road network, aligned with Stoke-on-Trent having a number of large sites able to accommodate distribution warehouses. Inward investment in the office sector has been more limited, with the majority of activity driven by existing companies relocating and expanding rather than significant inward investments moving into the area.

Newcastle-under-Lyme

6.9 Newcastle-under-Lyme lies to the west of the A500 dual carriageway and to the east of the M6 motorway between Junctions 15 and 16. Newcastle-under- Lyme Town Centre accommodates a mixture of retail, office and leisure facilities surrounded by residential, with some elements of employment (including offices) lying outside of the ring road. The main industrial and business parks lie to the north of the town along the A34 corridor, with some smaller industrial estates lying to the west of the town centre at Silverdale. There is limited business space of any size or volume located in the surrounding rural areas.

6.10 Access to the strategic road network is excellent due to the road linkages connecting to the M6 and A50 trunk road. Newcastle-under-Lyme also benefits from a more coherent road hierarchy than Stoke-on-Trent, whereby most arterial roads link to the ring road. The zoning of residential and employment uses are also more structured compared to Stoke-on-Trent, where residential sits cheek by jowl to heavy industry as a legacy of its manufacturing past.

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6.11 Inward investment has been strongest in the industrial / warehouse sector with a wide variety of industrial units constructed over the last 20 years. Inward investment in the office sector has been more limited with the majority of development being out of town business park space primarily aimed at the local market.

Market Segments

Stoke-on-Trent

Industrial

6.12 Stoke-on-Trent has seen a significant amount of industrial development over the last 20 years, ranging from small unit schemes (200 – 2,000 sqm), up to national distribution centres occupied by a variety of retailers. The ingredients to the success in the big shed sector have been: proximity to the M6 Motorway and links to the M1 Motorway via the A50; availability of large sites able to accommodate big warehouses; and lower land values compared to Birmingham and Manchester enabling developers to offer competitive rents.

6.13 A wide variety of national retailers have been attracted to build national/regional distribution centres in the area including Sainsbury’s, Screwfix, Pets At Home and Dunelm. Screwfix has recently completed a 28,800 sqm extension to its distribution centre at Trentham Lakes and Dunelm has recently committed to an additional 48,800 sqm unit at Sideway (in addition to the existing space the company currently occupies). In addition, DPD / Geopost has recently committed to a new 5,567 sqm parcel distribution unit at Etruria Valley.

6.14 Stoke-on-Trent has a wide variety of industrial stock with older units spread across the urban conurbation. The age of buildings ranges from Victorian manufacturing buildings (often multi-storey) through to modern portal framed units. Locations such as Longton have a higher percentage of these older buildings (with low eaves heights and in deteriorating repair) compared to other locations. As such, overall vacancy rates here are higher and marketing periods are significantly longer for this older stock.

6.15 According to local agents, there is an acute shortage of good quality, well- located, second-hand industrial accommodation. Many businesses are now seeking modern, purpose-built, premises. As a result of this shortage and the preference to become an owner occupier (stimulated in part by very low interest rates making capital loans an attractive proposition), a growing number of businesses are now looking to purchase the freehold interest in industrial buildings or acquire land on which to develop their own schemes.

6.16 Agents gave a number of examples of this trend including: 1 A 929sqm mid-80s industrial building at Ohio Grove, Burslem Industrial Estate, recently being purchased for £414.5/sqm;

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2 Nemesis Now, a fantasy giftware supplier, who have just purchased a 4,645 sqm warehouse at 108 - 144 City Road Fenton, in which to consolidate its activities; and 3 Olympus Engineering, who, with support from Advantage West Midlands, moved to a new 7,620 sqm facility on a former brownfield site on Garner Street in 2011 and subsequently acquired additional space on a neighbouring site (known as the old Slimma buildings).

6.17 A substantial amount of employment land has been lost to alternative uses over the past few years. However, a significant proportion of these sites comprised old industrial complexes or multi-storey pottery works with poor access. Many of these buildings were also obsolete or beyond economic repair. Availability of these older buildings is reducing, but there continues to be some older stock across the urban conurbation. Of these, some are suitable for alternative uses such as residential, retail or leisure if appropriately located. However, buildings in established employment areas remain unattractive in the current market for both occupiers and developers.

6.18 Agents flagged a trend within the Stoke-on-Trent area of owners demolishing the worst quality stock to avoid empty rates liabilities and/or promoting sites for higher value residential use rather than industrial. This is particularly prevalent with older sites, which have poor local access and limited parking. The former Westport House site on Federation Road was cited as being a good example of this trend. This 1.65ha site previously comprised 4,200 sqm of offices and workshops (dating from the 1950s). It lay vacant for 3 years between 2008 and 2011 was then subsequently demolished by the property owner. The cleared site has recently been placed under offer by a developer specialising in care assisted living schemes.

6.19 Vacancy rates on modern industrial estates are now at a relatively low level having recovered from much higher void levels during the recession. An improvement in the general economy and occupier confidence coupled with very limited new development since 2008 has enabled most landlords to reduce void levels across a range of sizes and ages of stock.

6.20 The focus of development in recent years has been on employment sites situated along the A500 and A50 corridors including Etruria Valley / Festival Park, Prologis Park, Trentham Lakes, Meir Park and Chatterley Valley (the latter straddles Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme).

6.21 There is a gap in supply for modern industrial units particularly in the 200 sqm to 2,500 sq m size bracket suitable for B1c, B2 and B8 uses although there is a continued demand from occupiers across a much broader range of sizes. Demand is focussed principally on sites within close proximity to the A500 and A50 trunk roads. Typical rental levels in the area are £30 to £40 per sqm for second hand industrial accommodation increasing to £48 to £60 per sqm for modern space.

6.22 It is understood that there is also strong demand for workshop units, which are generally let on leases of 3 years with break options at 18 months. Rents are

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reported at around £54/sq m for the best space or £540/sqm capital values. Agents pointed out that no developers are currently building for this market.

Office

6.23 Stoke-on-Trent has never been perceived by the market as a major office location, with only a small handful of major office occupiers in the area.

6.24 The office market has primarily been driven by existing occupiers growing and relocating in the area rather than significant new office occupiers moving into Stoke-on-Trent from beyond due to very strong competition from more established locations such as Manchester and Birmingham. Historically, the principal office locations were Hanley and Stoke with the surrounding towns providing additional office space.

6.25 Over the last 25 years there has been significant out-of-town office development, with the principal business park being Festival Park. There has also been some office development at Campbell Road and Trentham Lakes. A wide variety of local occupiers have moved from traditional town centre locations onto these business parks due to the lack of modern, open plan, office accommodation in the towns. As a result of this, a variety of business sectors that would ordinarily be situated within town centres, such as banks, solicitors, accountants and chartered surveyors, have now established themselves on out of town business parks. Demand for town centre space remains relatively weak as a consequence, exacerbated by the significant proportion of the available accommodation comprising older multi-storey 1960s and 1970s buildings.

6.26 The development of new office accommodation in the area has been badly affected by the economic downturn. Whilst it is showing some signs of improvement (18,300 sqm of new office space is nearing completion at No. 1 and No. 2 Smithfield in Hanley City Centre and development is also underway on a new 13,800 sqm office for Bet365), the commercial market has not recovered to the same extent as the industrial sector and therefore rental levels and occupier demand are still below levels achieved prior to the recession.

6.27 Bet365 has grown significantly as a business over the last 10 years and, to assist its continued expansion, the business has commissioned a new build headquarters on Festival Park totalling 13,000 sqm. When the company relocates to this new facility, it will release five buildings totalling 7,430 sqm.

6.28 Stoke City Council has also committed to relocating some service delivery functions from Stoke Town Centre to brand new office space at No. 1 Smithfield in the new Central Business District (with the Civic Centre/Stoke Town Hall complex retained as the administrative and civic headquarters). This comprises approximately 7,876 sq m of office floorspace which is to be occupied by the Council and its partners. No. 2 Smithfield (which comprises 10,421 sq m of office accommodation) is currently being offered as a rental opportunity to the market and this will release a significant amount of

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additional, good quality second hand supply into the market, particularly in relation to historic take up levels. However, there is concern amongst local office landlords on how long it will take the market to absorb the space being vacated by these two occupiers and the potential effect it may have on rental levels.

6.29 There may be scope for some of the buildings to be used for alternative uses including residential. The majority of enquiries on older office buildings are from developers looking at conversion to student accommodation to serve the local universities. London House in Stoke Town Centre for example, has recently secured planning permission for conversion to student accommodation and conversion works have commenced. However, there is generally little appetite from developers to convert offices to residential under permitted development rights.

6.30 The local office market is generally driven by smaller occupiers seeking offices of 100 to 500 sqm; office requirements of 1,000 sqm and above are seen as significant requirements in the local market.

6.31 At the height of the property market boom in 2008, rental levels for the best quality offices (typified by those delivered at Festival Park) reached c. £150/sq m. Subsequently, occupier demand has become much weaker and the rental tone has fallen to a current maximum of around £108/sq m as occupiers enjoy a stronger negotiating position and property owners are conscious of the cost of empty building business rates liabilities. Older accommodation in the Town Centre is being let at £40 to £60 per sqm, often on relatively flexible lease terms.

6.32 Some business parks in the area have an element of mixed use or sui generis uses within them, Festival Park being one example. On the Park, there are a mixture of uses including light industrial, a hotel, a public house and a variety of leisure uses including cinema, dry ski slope and Waterworld. At Trentham Lakes, there are also a variety of sui generis uses (towards the north) including multiple car dealerships as well as a hotel/restaurant and Stoke City Football Stadium. These sui generis and non B-Class employment uses are not seen to be detrimental to the business parks and indeed several uses complement the core uses of the parks.

Provision for Start Ups

6.33 Over the last 15 years, a number of small industrial unit developments have appeared, enabling start up/ small companies to locate in modern premises. With the lack of development activity during the recession, the vacancy rates on these modern estates is very low giving companies limited options when seeking new premises.

6.34 In the office sector, there are opportunities for start-up businesses to take small offices on flexible terms in older buildings where landlords are prepared to be flexible. However, most of these buildings do not offer the services generally found in fully serviced office buildings. In 2007, Northern Trust opened The

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Genesis Centre, which was a brand new, purpose-built office building able to accommodate up to 415 workstations. Whilst initial take up was slow during the recession, the building saw a significant uptake in space as the economy came out of the economic downturn. Genesis now has high levels of occupancy and struggles to accommodate some of the growing businesses in the building due to lack of available vacant space.

6.35 Affordable accommodation for small businesses is also available at the Chatterley Whitfield Enterprise Centre and Initiative House on Campbell Road. Due to the flexible nature of the terms offered and the wider business support services often provided, this provision has been fairly resilient to the impact of the recession and occupancy levels have risen in the last 12 months. Nevertheless, agents were generally of the view that supply and demand for this type of accommodation is currently well matched.

6.36 However, stakeholders identified that the study area lacks ‘follow-on’ space, which tend to be designed for small firms to expand into once they outgrow these incubator spaces. This lack of supply not only prevents these SMEs from expanding (creating further employment as they do) – it also prevents potential firms wishing to move into these incubator/start-up facilities from doing so due to the ‘blockage’ caused by established businesses.

Employment Land

6.37 The market for land is reported to have effectively stopped between 2008 and 2013 although agents have recently seen developer appetite returning to purchase land. Whilst residential land values are understood to be in the range of £990,000 to £1,250,000 per hectare (net of any abnormal costs), industrial land values are up to £370,000 to £500,000 per hectare if the land is problem free. However, many sites have issues that significantly reduce values. Surveyors agreed that the viability of industrial development was finely poised in the Stoke-on-Trent area, with the cost of remediating brownfield land often pushing delivery costs above completed capital/investment values.

6.38 In common with the conclusions reached in the 2011 JELR, agents felt there was no short term, or indeed medium term, shortage of employment land in the area. However, concerns were raised relating to a potential lack of good quality sites with good access to the strategic road network and which were suitable for distribution/industrial purposes. Issues were also raised with some, sites such as Garner Street, with flood risk limitations and St Modwen’s Berryhill site which requires infrastructure upgrades to overcome traffic issues. In addition, there was a widely held view that the Chatterley Whitfield site would require significant public sector intervention if it was to come forward for employment purposes.

Future Growth Potential

6.39 Stoke-on-Trent has a declining number of sites suitable for large warehouse development of 20,000 sqm plus. It is therefore the local occupier market that will provide a significant proportion of activity in the short to medium term.

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There are sites available for small / medium industrial development at Etruria Valley and other locations, but the dynamics of the market need to improve further to make development (particularly speculative development) more viable.

6.40 Despite improved market conditions, local agents are very much of the view that speculative industrial development is very unlikely to occur in the area for the foreseeable future. This is due partly to the fact that development funding is now very difficult to secure without an occupier in place (this has become a major issue for all types of commercial property, regardless of where it may be located) but also reflects a reluctance to jump into what is still generally perceived to be ‘choppy waters’. In the previous economic/ development cycle, some developers who had speculatively developed schemes were left with vacant completed buildings with expensive void business rates liabilities and uncertainty over when lettings would take place. Agents commented that as a consequence of this, a number of new schemes in the area stood empty for several years before being occupied. For example, the Campbell Centre, a 39,670sq m warehouse dating from the 1970s stood empty for a lengthy period of time following Michelin’s departure until 2013 when it was acquired by Warehouse Reworking Solutions Limited at a very heavily discounted rent of £10.75/sqm49.

6.41 There is land available for office development in the City Centre within the CBD zone and land allocated at Etruria Valley for further out of town business park space.

6.42 When identifying the need for further sites going forward, agents took the view that the split between uses is likely to be similar to historic take up, whereby approximately 75% of the land take will be for industrial and warehouse uses with the remainder being office and other B-class uses. Take up of land for development activity has been subdued between 2008 and 2015 and so there could be some pent up demand and activity as the market conditions improve further, which are then likely to fall back to levels seen over the last 15 year period.

6.43 Agents confirmed that future sites will need to be close to the A500 and A50 trunk roads due to occupier demand declining the further away sites are from these two strategic trunk roads.

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Industrial

6.44 In contrast to Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme has a smaller supply of older industrial accommodation with a significant proportion of the current industrial stock being of 1970s construction onwards.

49 Lambert Smith Hampton (2013) West Midlands Industrial & Logistics Market Review

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6.45 The Parkhouse Industrial Estate was constructed during the 1970s to the north of Newcastle (accessed off the A34) and this provides a wide range of variably sized industrial stock. Further development took place on this estate during the 1990s (on Rosevale Road). Significant occupiers include FedEx, the Co- op and IDS (part of the Saint Gobain Group).

6.46 During the 1990s, the Lymedale Business Park (lying to the south of Parkhouse Industrial Estate) started to be developed and today accommodates a broad range of industrial/warehouse premises. There have also been several phases of office development. Significant occupiers in the industrial sector include New Look, Asda, TK Maxx and Smyths Toys.

6.47 There is older industrial stock lying adjacent to Lymedale Business Park on Loomer Road and Holditch Road. However, as with Stoke-on-Trent, local agents consider there to be an acute shortage of good quality, well-located second-hand industrial accommodation. One agent felt that the lack of any vacant units at Langtree’s High Carr Business Park (where units range from 320sqm to 1,535sqm) was an indicator of the desirability of that type of stock and its shortage in the market.

6.48 To the west of Newcastle Town Centre there has also been industrial development at Silverdale primarily comprising of smaller industrial units of 1,000 sqm and below.

6.49 Historically there were several large industrial occupiers in the Kidsgrove area located on West Avenue and Linley Road. The majority of these older industrial facilities have now been demolished due to obsolescence and weak occupier demand in this location leading to several sites being released for alternative uses including residential.

6.50 Vacancy levels in Newcastle have reduced significantly over the last few years and there are a variety of requirements for units below 2,500 sqm focusing on the established employment areas including Parkhouse Industrial Estate and Lymedale Business Park to the north of the town.

6.51 Typical rental levels on older industrial stock are £30 to £40 per sqm increasing to £48 to £60 per sq m on newer stock.

6.52 As in Stoke-on-Trent, there is a strong demand for workshop units with no developers currently building for this market.

Offices

6.53 As with Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme has never been perceived by the market to be a major office location, with the demand for office space stemming predominantly from local firms who tend to have modest requirements.

6.54 The office market in Newcastle was historically centred around the Town Centre until more modern office stock started to be delivered at out of town business parks including Lymedale Business Park and Keele Science Park.

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6.55 The office accommodation at Lymedale principally comprises of small self- contained office buildings ranging in size from 150 sqm to 500 sqm constructed by Gladman Developments and Priority Sites. Phones 4 U occupied two buildings totalling 3,250 sqm as their headquarters offices. These buildings are now vacant and available on the market following the failure of the business.

6.56 Office accommodation within the Town Centre is primarily old stock, although there has been some (albeit limited) office development over the last 20 years including Fellgate Court (which lies on the edge of the Town Centre) and Brunswick Court (a mixed use office and residential scheme constructed in 2005). Blackburn House, which was a former Department of Work and Pensions building vacated in 2005, has recently been sold to Ladson who are planning to convert the multi-storey building into 160 student flats. The building is being renamed Keele House, although conversion works have not taken place to date. With the exception of enquiries from specialist student accommodation providers, there is limited interest from general residential developers looking at conversion of office developments to residential under permitted development rights.

6.57 Agents noted that over the last two years, some local businesses had started to expand or wanted to move into better quality space and there was a palpable return of confidence amongst such occupiers. They also reported that office occupiers have become more discerning since the recession with many no longer willing to take on a range of liabilities as part of the fit out cost on second hand accommodation. A building that one agent believed reflects this trend is APV House on Speedwell Road, which has very good access to the A34. This modern building was predominately formerly occupied by Phones 4U, who went into administration in 2014. The firm had occupied 2,323 sq m of office space here. This was subsequently subdivided and marketed as small office suites. All but 186 sq m has now been let to local businesses on leases of between 3 and 5 years, at rents between £80/ sqm and £86/ sqm. The agents considered that this building reflected all wider trends concerning the returning strength of office take up in the last nine months. However, occupiers now expect landlords to present space to a good standard and any poorly presented space performs badly in the market and remains empty.

6.58 Over the last 15 years, Keele Science Park, adjacent to the university, has developed a series of B1a/b buildings aimed at medical technology, healthcare companies and other high tech sectors. Innovation Centre One was opened in 1999 and Keele is now bringing forward Innovation Centre Five comprising 2,800 sq m, which is due to open in spring 2016. Whilst Innovation Centre Five is being built speculatively, it is understood that there are several existing tenants who wish to expand on the business park who may take space in the building once it is available. Premium rents have been achieved at Keele but this reflects the quality and type of space being offered and the space is not directly comparable to traditional business parks. Fully fitted laboratory space is available in addition to office space.

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6.59 The Science Park currently accommodates approximately 80 companies in these Innovation Centre Buildings and the Nova Centre. Keele University also has 28 hectares of development land adjacent to the Science Park enabling significant future expansion. The masterplan has created 13 plots of land suitable for a variety of B1a office development and there is also a plot zoned for a future hotel development. However, the development of new office space generally was badly affected by the economic downturn and a start on Innovation Centre Five has only been feasible because of Staffordshire County Council’s willingness to financially support the scheme.

6.60 Agents underlined the significance that office occupiers attach to the availability of on-site car parking. Although contract spaces are available in Newcastle-under-Lyme’s town centre, the firmly entrenched culture is that office occupiers do not want to pay an additional amount for parking spaces and want easy, convenient parking with their office.

6.61 Compared to the Stoke-on-Trent business parks, there are few sui generis uses to be found at Newcastle-under-Lyme’s business parks, with few isolated users identified.

Provision for Start Ups

6.62 Keele Science Park has successfully created flexible workspace within the Innovation Centre buildings enabling new businesses to set up and expand. Due to this success, Keele Science Park is currently completing Innovation Centre Five to enable existing companies to expand further.

6.63 The office accommodation constructed at Lymedale Business Park by Gladman Developments and Priority Sites has also provided accommodation suitable for young office-based businesses to grow. The Evolution scheme by Priority Sites includes both traditional office buildings as well as two-storey hybrid office/warehouse buildings. As the office market begins to improve the demand for this space is also starting to improve. Nevertheless, agents were generally of the view that supply and demand for this type of accommodation is currently well matched.

6.64 Staffordshire County Council and Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council own and run several Enterprise Centres in the Newcastle area. These include Lymedale Business Centre, Lymedale Court Enterprise Centre and Silverdale Enterprise Centre. The buildings provide office and workshop space on flexible lease terms aimed at start-up companies.

Employment Land

6.65 As in Stoke-on-Trent, land buying effectively came to a halt between 2008 and 2013, although agents have recently seen developer appetite returning to buy land. In common with the one of the findings of the 2011 ELR, agents felt there was no short term, or indeed medium term, shortage in the amount of employment land in the area. However, concerns were raised relating to a

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potential lack of good quality sites which had good access to the strategic road network and were suitable for distribution/industrial purposes.

Future Growth Potential

6.66 Like in Stoke-on-Trent, local property agents consider that despite improved market conditions, speculative industrial development was very unlikely to occur in the area for the foreseeable future. This is partly due to a number of new schemes standing empty for several years prior to occupation in the previous economic/development cycle, including the 38,550sq m Alto 415 building at Lymedale Business Park, which was completed in 2008 but remained unlet until it was acquired by Smyths Toys in 2012.

6.67 Going forward agents considered that further land is required within Newcastle- under-Lyme to accommodate new industrial development of varying sizes and to a lesser extent small scale office development subject to the office occupier market showing further signs of improvement. The A34 Corridor north of the Town Centre has been the focus of development and there is occupier demand for more employment space along the A34 Corridor benefiting from good access to Newcastle, the A500 and Junction 16 of the M6. For the longer term, there was a general view that one or more significant employment sites would be required with good access to the strategic road network, in particular the M6.

6.68 Agents felt that future take up is likely to follow similar historic trends, whereby up to 75% of land has been developed for warehouse and industrial uses with the remaining land being taken up by other B class uses to include offices.

Business Enquires

6.69 Enquires data from ‘Make It Stoke-on-Trent & Staffordshire’ (the inward investment arm of the Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Local Enterprise Partner (LEP)) have been analysed in order to determine the requirements of businesses looking to locate in the Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme area.

Industrial Enquiries

50 6.70 Of the 1,075 relevant industrial enquires received by STCC and NLBC’s inward investment agency, 87% related to STCC (Figure 6.1) whilst just 13% are related to Newcastle-under-Lyme (Figure 6.2). The enquires received for Newcastle-under-Lyme tended to be for larger units. For instance, whilst in Stoke-on-Trent only 20% of enquires were for units of more than 929 sqm51 in Newcastle-under-Lyme the equivalent figure was 44%. Likewise around 50% of Stoke-on-Trent’s industrial enquires related to premises which were smaller

50 Enquires for employment land made to Make It Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire between October 2014 and March 2015 relating to the local authority areas of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 51 Whilst Make it Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire record business enquiries in square feet, for the purposes of this study these enquires have been converted to square metres.

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than 465 sqm, whereas the equivalent figure in Newcastle-under-Lyme was around 35%.

Figure 6.1 Enquiries for Industrial Properties by Size, Stoke-on-Trent [October 2014 to March 2015]

< 93 sq m 93 - 279 sq m 279 - 465 sq m 465 - 929 sq m 929 - 4645 sq m 4645 - 9290 sq m >9290 sq m

Source: Make It Stoke-on-Trent & Staffordshire (2015)

Figure 6.2 Enquiries for Industrial Properties by Size, Newcastle-under-Lyme [October 2014 to March 2015]

< 93 sq m 93 - 279 sq m 279 - 465 sq m 465 - 929 sq m 929 - 4645 sq m 4645 - 9290 sq m >9290 sq m

Source: Make It Stoke-on-Trent & Staffordshire (2015)

Office Enquiries

6.71 As with industrial space enquires for office space is skewed towards Stoke-on- Trent, with 72% of the 242 enquires received over the same period relating to land within Stoke-on-Trent whereas 28% related to land within Newcastle- under-Lyme. Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme have a broadly similar proportion of enquires for small-to medium sized offices (under 279 sqm). When looking at business demography, it was observed that Stoke-on- Trent had a higher percentage of large firms. This can also be seen in the office enquires figures, with 11% of Stoke-on-Trent’s enquires relating to units

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of between 929 – 4,645 sqm, whereas there are no such enquires for offices of that size in Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Figure 6.3 Enquiries for Office Properties by Size, Stoke-on-Trent [October 2014 to March 2015]

< 93 sq m 93 - 279 sq m 279 - 465 sq m 465 - 929 sq m 929 - 4645 sq m

Source: Make It Stoke-on-Trent & Staffordshire

Figure 6.4 Enquiries for Office Properties by Size, Newcastle-under-Lyme [October 2014 to March 2015]

< 93 sq m 93 - 279 sq m 279 - 465 sq m 465 - 929 sq m 929 - 4645 sq m

Source: Make It Stoke-on-Trent & Staffordshire

Needs of Local Businesses

6.72 A criticism of the original JELR was that no consultation with businesses was undertaken. In order to address this, an online business survey was undertaken as part of this study in order to gain a better understanding of the needs of businesses operating within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme and the main factors that support and inhibit business growth.

6.73 The business survey was sent out to 616 businesses across the study area, and 61 responses (a response rate of 10%) were received. Firms which responded represented a range of B class sectors and locations across the two

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authorities. A summary of the key findings are set out below, with a selection of business quotes presented in Appendix 1.

Business Profile

6.74 When compared to the actual demography of business size within the study area, the firms which responded to the survey encompassed a slightly higher percentage of larger businesses (250+ employees) and a slightly lower percentage of SME (0-250 employees) businesses across the study area as a whole. Those who responded to our survey fell within the following categories: 1 ‘Micro’ (0-9 employees): 36% 2 Small (10-49): 28% 3 Medium (50-249): 23% 4 Large (250+ employees): 13%

Current Business Premises

6.75 Respondents currently occupy a range of business premises, although the most common were business/office parks, industrial estates (both 30%), individual urban sites (13%) and city centre offices (11%). The majority (51%) of companies considered that their current premises/site met their space requirements. Furthermore, the majority of respondents rated their current premises as being of a high quality, with 61% selected 4 or 5 stars, compared to just 15% rating their premises 1 or 2 stars. 41% of respondents felt their premises were not big enough, whilst only 7% felt their premises had surplus space.

6.76 The most commonly cited difficulties in finding suitable premises/sites to expand, upgrade or relocate to were: 1 Finding premises that were sufficiently affordable; 2 Accessing funding for such expansion; and, 3 Finding premises which have a sufficient level of on-site parking.

Future Growth Plans

6.77 Over three quarters (78%) of respondents are considering expanding their premises in the next five to ten years, by an average of around 2,400 sqm each. 40% of these firms would look to expand their current site. However, for those looking to re-locate, the vast majority (nearly 95%) want to stay within the study area. When the respondents were asked about what the main obstacles would be to expansion, the most common response was ‘a lack of suitable premises’, along with ‘lack of finance’ and a ‘lack of skills’.

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Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme as a Business Location

6.78 Over half of respondents (54%) gave Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme a 4 or 5 (out of 5) in terms of quality of business location, whereas only 15% gave the study area a poor score (1 or 2) in this regard. The most common factors that businesses cited for locating in the study area were: 1 A central location within the UK; 2 Proximity to a large, reliable and motivated workforce; 3 Proximity to client base; and 4 Good access to transport infrastructure and links (i.e. being in close proximity to motorways, the rail network and several airports).

6.79 Whilst many respondents cited the central location and strong transport connections as strengths of the area, concerns were raised that the strategic road network was becoming increasingly congested. In addition, the quality of local public transport (particularly the bus services) were raised as a weakness of the area, as was the poor provision of parking within Hanley City Centre which, when combined with poor local public transport links, restricts businesses from located there.

Conclusions

6.80 Consultation has indicated that local agents tend to view Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme as one conterminous area and not separate entities. We therefore conclude generally for the study area as a whole.

6.81 The availability of labour, and its comparatively lower cost than some other locations along the M6 corridor, is key to the success of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme in attracting major industrial space requirements to date, alongside its accessibility and the availability of large, oven ready sites.

6.82 The office market historically has been driven by local companies expanding and relocating, with very little inward investment seen. This is likely to continue to be the case going forward as Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme struggle to compete with surrounding cities. The supply of good quality office space in the coming years is expected to be good but, with the exception of Smithfield 3, is in out of town locations (Festival Way and Keele University Science & Innovation Park).

6.83 The industrial sector has shown genuine signs of recovery following the recession and is fuelled by a wide variety of occupiers ranging from small local SMEs up to national retailers and manufacturers. Demand is currently perceived to be strong and is likely to continue, placing additional pressure on the reducing levels of modern existing stock in well located areas. However, there is unlikely to be any speculative development of industrial space in the foreseeable future. This is likely to mean that some large, footloose requirements will be lost to other geographies with available stock, and the

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mid-size and small unit markets in particular will be frustrated by a lack of supply. Likewise whilst there is strong demand for workshop units there are no developers currently building for this market.

6.84 The study area has adequate provision for small, start-up businesses, but a lower supply of ‘follow-on’ spaces. There is therefore some scope to expand this type of accommodation given the study area’s SME base and history of small firms expanding and staying in the area.

6.85 There is very limited rural business space of any size or volume in either Stoke-on-Trent or Newcastle-under-Lyme currently. Furthermore, discussions with stakeholders and agents confirmed that there was no ‘hidden/ unmet demand’ for such space within the Study area. However, it is noted that there are a number of business parks located just outside of the Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme boundaries - for example, Raleigh Hall Industrial Estate (just north of Eccleshall); Brookside Business Park (at Cold Meece); and Blythe Bridge. Further industrial space is also available in Market Drayton and rural office provision exists just off the M6 (Junction 13). This suggests that small firms looking for rural employment space tend to gravitate towards existing nearby provision in Stafford, Staffordshire Moorlands and Shropshire with cost effective rents in older, industrial complexes.

6.86 Business feedback indicates that, despite a general positivity with regard to firms’ current premises and the desire of the overwhelming majority of respondents to remain in the study area, the lack of suitable premises to expand into is limiting such expansion, as is poor quality public transport and congestion throughout the study area. For the majority of businesses, good access to the strategic road network is a very important factor in location decisions as is labour availability and costs.

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7.0 Review of Employment Sites Portfolio

Introduction

7.1 This section presents the findings of an assessment of employment land supply in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent. The assessment considered the characteristics and quality of existing and undeveloped employment sites in the two local authorities and their suitability to meet future employment development needs.

Overview of Assessed Sites

7.2 The ELR considered all those sites which could be part of a meaningful and deliverable employment land portfolio and could therefore potentially be allocated for employment use in a new Joint Local Plan. In consultation with the two Councils it was agreed that the assessment should be structured on a review of 117 sites, 74 of which are located in Stoke-on-Trent and the remaining 43 within Newcastle-under-Lyme. Some of these are part of the authorities’ existing supply, whereas others are part of their potential future supply52.

Committed Supply of Employment Space

7.3 The committed stock of employment space in the study area comes from three key sources: 1 Local Plan allocations: sites allocated for employment development under policies in the Local Plan (that have not yet been built out); 2 Vacant land within existing employment sites: employment sites incorporating underutilised land; and, 3 Extant planning permissions: other sites with extant planning permission (i.e. permissions that have not yet expired and could be implemented) for employment development (as at April 2014)53.

7.4 The committed supply of employment space has been identified by the Local Authorities as falling within the above categories.

Local Plan Allocations

54 7.5 Stoke-on-Trent City Council does not have any allocated sites.

52 Both local authorities determined themselves whether sites formed part of the existing employment land supply or part of the potential future supply. 53 Details of extant planning permissions were provided by STCC based upon data as of July 2015, and by NLBC based upon data as of 2013/14. 54 Correspondence with STCC, 28 April 2015

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7.6 The Newcastle-under-Lyme Local Plan (2011) allocated a number of sites for industrial and business use. While the majority of these sites have since been developed, some of the allocated sites remain available for future employment use. Five sites (with a total net area of 55.5 ha) remain:

 Chatterley Valley Phase II (Peacock Way): 37.53 ha 55  London Road, Chesterton: 0 ha

 Kidsgrove Station Yard: 0.91 ha

 University of Keele Science Park (Phase 3): 14.5ha

 Chemical Lane: 2.56 ha

7.7 In addition to these sites, saved Policy E9 of the Newcastle-under-Lyme Local Plan supports the renewal of planning permissions at a number of sites (the total net area of which is 11.37 ha):

 Rowhurst Close, Chesterton: 3.5 ha

 Lowlands Plot A, Chatterley Valley: 5.49 ha

 Centre 500, Former Wolstanton Colliery Stock Yard: 2.38 ha

7.8 All of these sites have been assessed as part of Newcastle-under-Lyme’s current employment land supply.

Vacant Land within Existing Employment Sites

7.9 STCC and NLBC Officers have provided details of a number of committed employment sites, which include parcels of underutilised employment land within their curtilage. These parcels of land do not benefit from extant planning permission but have the potential to be developed for employment purposes.

7.10 There are also a number of cleared and vacant employment sites as a result of old and unattractive stock being demolished (likely to be attributable, at least in part, to the avoidance of empty rates liabilities)56.

7.11 These sites occupy 55.51 ha in Stoke-on-Trent and 2.4 ha in Newcastle-under- Lyme.

Sites with Extant Planning Permission

7.12 STCC and NLBC monitoring data records the amount of employment space with extant planning permissions for B-Class uses. This data source has been made available to NLP to assist with the site appraisal process.

7.13 The majority of sites with extant planning permission (with a net area of 49.57 ha in Stoke-on-Trent and 7.71 ha in Newcastle-under-Lyme) are included within the sites forwarded by STCC and NLBC for assessment. However there

55 Whilst the land is still not in employment use, when our site inspection took place there was work being done prior to development 56 Where former employment sites were cleared less than 10 years ago, or where this information is unknown, we have considered this land to represent part of the existing employment stock. Where sites were cleared more than 10 years ago, we have assessed this land as part of the potential future supply of employment space.

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are a small number of sites with extant planning permission for B-Class development, details of which have not been provided. As such, these sites have not been assessed. These total 5.14 ha in Stoke-on-Trent and 0.5 ha in Newcastle-under-Lyme. The total stock of sites with extant planning permission therefore totals 54.71ha within Stoke-on-Trent and 8.21ha within Newcastle-under-Lyme.

7.14 It should be noted that there is no guarantee that these permissions will be implemented and brought forward for employment use over the plan period. If any permissions were to lapse, this could have implications for the overall demand/supply balance, for example, by increasing any surplus of employment space or reducing any shortfall.

Approach

7.15 All the aforementioned sites were inspected and, in accordance with the Practice Guidance,57 their suitability for employment use was assessed against the following criteria: 1 Physical limitations or problems such as access, infrastructure, ground conditions, flood risks, pollution or contamination (where known); 2 Potential impacts including the effect upon landscapes including landscape features, nature and heritage conservation; 3 Appropriateness and likely market attractiveness for the type of development proposed; 4 Contribution to regeneration priority areas;58 and, 5 Environmental/amenity impacts experienced by would be occupiers and neighbouring areas

7.16 Other factors were also noted including suitability for specific uses (including the potential for sites to utilise any nearby rail network for rail freight use), planning constraints, potential timescales for delivery, and whether there were any barriers to the delivery of undeveloped sites. Details of the criteria used to assess sites, in addition to what characteristics would constitute a ‘Very Good’, ‘Good’ score and so on, are provided in Appendix 4. Appendix 5 contains a table summarising the assessment of each site against these criteria.

7.17 The broad categories of ‘very good’, ‘good’, ‘average’, ‘poor’ and ‘very poor’ are intended to provide a broad indication of the overall quality of employment land supply rather than a comparison of one site against another.

7.18 It should be noted, however, that the overall score assigned to a site is not a simple reflection of its average performance against the aforementioned assessment criteria. Whilst this is taken into consideration, a site’s overall score reflects a more rounded, qualitative judgement, on its suitability for employment development, as recommended by the Practice Guidance.

57 Paragraph 019 Reference ID 3-019-20140306 58 The Stoke-on-Trent City Centre & Etruria Road Corridor Area Action Plan (2010), as well as the Ceramics Valley Enterprise Zone Proposal Map (2015), were examined to see whether any assessed sites fell within their boundaries.

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Accordingly, the score is also informed by factors such as market intelligence, market attractiveness, sustainability considerations and compliance with planning policy set out in the Framework. Greater weight has been given to sites which best respond to the market’s needs and where any identified constraints can be overcome, with appropriate mitigation, through the planning process. A site, for example, could be considered as having the potential of satisfying particular business or sector needs (which can be important reasons for retaining it, even if it does not perform well against conventional site assessment criteria).

7.19 Similarly, sites with significant impediments (such as contamination, or a Green Belt location) have been downgraded. This is because the assessment adopts a ‘policy-on’ approach, i.e. it assesses sites as they would be considered if a planning application for their (re)development were to come forward today, albeit at a more strategic level. If any site constraints were to be removed in the future (i.e. policy constraints, access improvements, site contamination/ remediation), the scoring of a site would be likely to improve.

7.20 A commentary on each of the sites is provided (Appendix 6) to supplement the formal scoring exercise. This commentary is accompanied by a site location plan and photograph as well as our final recommendations for each site.

7.21 It is important to note that the assessment is based on the current conditions and intrinsic qualities of each site and the associated scoring has been derived on this basis. It is possible that the scoring and relative ranking of sites could change in future if any site constraints were to be removed (i.e. policy constraints, site contamination/ remediation), or measures were put in place to improve their functioning as employment sites (for example through access improvements, new infrastructure and servicing). However, it should be noted that the matrix is not intended to represent a Sustainability Appraisal of sites and no detailed viability work has been undertaken.

7.22 To supplement the site inspections, the assessment process also involved GIS spatial analysis in order to establish whether any of the sites were constrained for example, by being located in the Green Belt, or within Flood Zone 3. This analysis was based on GIS data sourced from various bodies (such as Ordnance Survey, English Heritage and the Environment Agency) during spring 2015.

7.23 GIS was also used to consider the aspect of accessibility to public transport, which the RELS manual59 qualifies as a requirement for a bus stop being located within 400m of a site. This was modelled by applying a 400m buffer around each site and performing a spatial query of NaPTAN data60 to establish the number bus stops, if any, that were located within the buffer area. It is realised that there limitations to this approach but it was considered that this provides a reasonable indication of public transport accessibility.

59RELS (2014) “West Midlands Regional Employment Land Study 60 Bus stop data was derived from ‘NaPTAN’ (the national public transport access nodes database), a nationwide system for uniquely identifying all the points of access to public transport in the UK, as maintained by the Department of Transport

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7.24 It was agreed with the two local authorities that, for the purpose of this particular assessment, strategic roads would be defined as comprising the A34, the A50 and the A500. In this regard, it is noted that the A34 north of Talke and the A500 between Hanley City Centre and Etruria are particularly susceptible to congestion.

Overview of Committed Employment Sites

7.25 In overall net terms, 182 ha of the 187.65 ha of committed employment land has been assessed across the Study area, of which 105 ha (net) (58%) relates to land in Stoke-on-Trent with the remaining 77 ha (net) (42%) in Newcastle- under-Lyme.

7.26 Appendix 10 comprises maps of the assessed employment sites within Stoke- on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme respectively.

Site Assessment Results

7.27 A summary of site rankings are provided in Table 7.1 (for Stoke-on-Trent) and Table 7.2 (for Newcastle-under-Lyme).

7.28 The final recommendation for each site is informed by the site assessment and commentary (in Appendices 5 and 6 respectively) but is essentially based on a rounded qualitative judgement which reflects a detailed consideration of the following key issues: 1 Sustainability –whether a site demonstrates characteristics that make it sustainable, such as being: previously developed land; accessible by public transport; compatible with neighbouring uses; and in an area at a lower risk of flooding; 2 Market Attractiveness - whether a site is: financially viable from a developer’s point of view (taking into account the possible need for site remediation, levelling and off-site and on-site infrastructure work); in an area of strong demand; and likely to be viewed as attractive by agents/occupiers; 3 Policy Adherence - whether there are any known policy constraints affecting the site or immediate surrounding area. These may relate to the natural, built and/or historic environment.

7.29 Overall, the assessments of existing sites indicate that both authorities have a reasonable range of employment sites of differing quality and type. The majority of sites assessed accommodated a mix of B1/B2/B8 uses, although a smaller number of specific B1 office sites were also assessed.

7.30 The recommended site portfolio in the following sections is presented on a “without prejudice” basis as evidence to inform the preparation of the Joint Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme Local Plan. It does not constitute Council policy, and future employment allocations will be determined through formal consultation as part of the Local Plan preparation process.

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Table 7.1 Summary of Site Assessments (Stoke-on-Trent)

Size Rank Site Name [Ref] (Ha) (net)

Good

ST42 Central Business District (Smithfield) 2.0 Very ST54 East and West Precincts, Hanley 0.0

ST8 West of Ivy House Rd 0.0 ST70 Business Unit1 (Recticel), Enterprise Way, Meir Park 0.0 ST48 Fuchs Lubricants, New Century Street, Hanley 0.0 ST55 Trinity St/Marsh St North, Hanley 0.2 ST13 Building 94F, Stone Road, Trent Vale 0.0 ST33 Land off High St, Tunstall - CFS 9 1.2 ST47 140 Broad Street Hanley 0.0 ST28 Butters Festival Way 0.0 ST72 Etruria Valley Phase 2a Forge Lane Etruria 3.0 ST52 Former Focus DIY, Milburn Road, Cobridge 0.0 ST51 Holdcroft Honda, Sneyd Street, Cobridge 0.2 ST29 Severn Trent Water Depot, Federation Rd, Burslem 0.0

Good ST22 The Campbell Centre 0.0

ST73 Wades, Trade Park 4, Hanley Economic and Festival 1.4 Court ST1 Former Johnson Matthey, Whittle Rd, Meir 8.2 ST68 Park Hall Business Village 0.5 ST17 South Car Park Stanley Matthews Way Trentham 0.7 Lakes ST12 Trentham Lakes North 5.4 ST49 Unit 1 & 2, Hot Lane Industrial Estate 0.0 ST65 Calvery Street and Lower Spring Rd 0.0 ST36 Chatterley Valley (Area 3) 1.1 ST74 Land at Clough Street (Including CFS 12) 2.8 ST4 Staffordshire House/Fenton 25 8.1

ST62 Site at Clarence Road/ Don Bur Service 0.0 ST35 Valley Works, Ravensdale, Tunstall 0.0 ST30 Westport Road/Hall Street/Pack Horse Lane, Burslem 0.5 ST25 College (Snow Hill Building) 0.0 ST16 Trentham Lakes South (inc plot at Trentham Lakes 20.7 North) ST71 Etruria Valley Phase 3a & 3b, Forge Lane Etruria 18.5 ST23 Metaltek/Meighs Castings, Campbell Rd - CFS 10 0.0 ST58 Ex Phoenix Timber, Foley Rd, Longton 1.2

Average ST44 Land off New Century St, Hanley - CFS 23 0.0 ST64 Shires Bathrooms, Uttoxeter Rd 1.6

ST60 Fenpark Industrial Estate 0.0 ST57 Former Sub-Station, Bute Street, Fenton 0.4 ST53 Garth Street, Hanley 1.4 ST9 Gas Holder site, Etruscan St 0.9 ST20 Land at Whielden Rd - CFS 5 0.0 ST19 Site off Whieldon Road 3.7 ST5 Cliffe Vale/Caradon Twyfords Excelsior Wks/Former 4.0 Slimma ST10 Hewitts, Victoria Rd, Fenton 0.0 ST67 Sandford Hill 0.0

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ST34 Chatterley Valley (Area 1) 2.9 S ST38 o Chatterley Valley (Area 2) 2.1 ST3 u Wedgwood Estate, Barlaston 0.0 ST32 r Former Brownhills Tileries, Harewood Street, Tunstall 12.6 Poor c ST56 e Chatterley Whitfield 0.0 Very : Poor Total 105.1 N NLP analysis Note: Numerical errors may occur due to rounding

7.31 Within Stoke-on-Trent, 3 sites with a net developable area of 2.0 ha (1.9%), were ranked as ‘Very Good’; 22 sites (32.7 ha, 31.1%) were ranked as ‘Good’; 22 sites (57.8 ha, 55%) were ranked as ‘Average’; 1 site (12.6 ha, 12%) was ranked as ‘Poor’; and 1 sites (0 ha, 0%) was ranked as ‘Very Poor’.

Table 7.2 Summary of Site Assessments (Newcastle-under-Lyme)

Size Site Name [Ref] Rank (Ha) NL40 Keele Science Park Phase 3, University of Keele 14.5

NL19 Land at London Road Chesterton 0.0 Good NL4 Chatterley Valley (east of mainline), Chatterley 5.5

NL41 Water Street/George Street, Newcastle 0.0 NL3 Silverdale Business Park, Cemetery Road, Silverdale 0.6 NL12 Heathcote St, Chesterton 0.4 NL21 Land between Lower Milehouse Lane and Brymbo 1.4 Road NL42 Land and Buildings at West Avenue, Kidsgrove 2.7 NL39 Station Rd, Kidsgrove 0.9 NL43 Chemical Lane Site 2.6 Average NL10 Former Wolstanton Colliery Stock Yard, West Ave, 2.4 Wolstanton

NL36 Rowhurst Close, Chesterton 3.5 NL37 West Avenue, Kidsgrove 2.1 NL5 Chatterley Valley (west of mainline), Chatterley 37.5 NL38 Land off Linley Road, Kidsgrove 2.6 NL18 Hilltop Business Centre, Talke 0.0 NL34 Pepper St, Keele 0.4 Poor Total 77.1

Source: NLP analysis Note: Numerical errors may occur due to rounding

7.32 Within Newcastle-under-Lyme, 5 sites, with a net developable area of 20.6 ha (26.7%), were ranked as ‘Good’; 11 sites were ranked as ‘Average’ (56.1 ha, 72.8%); and 1 site (0.4 ha, 0.5%) was ranked as ‘Poor’.

7.33 In respect of Table 7.1 and Table 7.2, it is considered that existing employment sites that are currently in active use and fully developed are unable to accommodate any further development at present. Consequently, the net area of such sites is 0 ha.

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Future Supply of Employment Space

7.34 In addition, and requested by the two Local Planning Authorities, NLP assessed a number of sites which are not currently allocated, do not benefit from extant planning permission for B-Class employment development and are not part of any committed employment site. The two key sources of this potential future employment land supply are: 1 Call for Sites: sites submitted by landowners or developers through the emerging Joint Local Plan ‘Call for Sites’ process. 2 Other Sites: sites put forward by both local authorities, including those previously assessed in the 2011 JELR.

7.35 Together, these sources of available supply amount to 149.57 ha of employment space in Stoke-on-Trent and 279.69 ha of employment space in Newcastle-under-Lyme, as summarised in Table 7.3.

7.36 These sites have been assessed in the same way as the supply of committed employment sites and against the same criteria. However, the actual amount of land that will be required to meet any identified quantitative or qualitative need is considered in the following two Sections.

Table 7.3 Available (net) Employment Space in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme

Potential New Employment Space (ha) (net) Source Newcastle- Stoke-on-Trent Total under-Lyme

Existing Supply of Employment Land

Local Plan Allocations 0 66.86 66.86 Vacant Land within Existing 55.51 2.40 57.91 Employment Sites Sites with Extant Planning Permission for B-Class 54.67 8.21 62.92 Employment Development61

Sub-Total 110.18 77.47 187.65

Potential Future Supply of Employment Land

Call For Sites 80.3462 57.12 137.46

Other Sites Assessed 69.23 222.57 291.64

Sub-Total 149.57 279.69 429.26

Total 259.75 357.16 616.91

Source: STCC / NLBC / NLP analysis

Note: Numerical errors may occur due to rounding

61 This figure is a summation of the sites with extant planning permission which were put forward by STCC and NLBC for assessment (49.57 ha in Stoke-on-Trent and 7.71 ha in Newcastle-under-Lyme) in addition to sites which have extant planning permission but were not within the sites to assess (5.1 ha in Stoke-on-Trent and 0.5 ha in Newcastle-under-Lyme). 62 Several sites within the Call for Sites are either within existing Employment Sites or have Planning Permission, so have been excluded from the Call for Sites category. These sites are: ST23, ST74, ST44, ST60, ST57, ST3, ST9, ST53, ST20, ST19, ST10, ST67, ST5, ST2

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Conclusions

7.37 Overall, the assessment of identified employment sites indicates that Stoke-on- Trent has a small number of large employment sites (68.02 ha/ 65% of the existing employment stock is made up from just 5 sites) and a large number of fairly small sites. Only 32% of the stock (34.8 ha) has been ranked as ‘Very Good’ or ‘Good’.

7.38 In Newcastle-under-Lyme, just three sites (57.52 ha) comprise 75% of the existing employment stock, with the remainder of the sites generally being under 3 ha. Approximately a quarter of the stock (20.6ha, 27%) has been ranked as ‘Good’.

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8.0 Future Requirements for B Class Employment Space

Introduction

8.1 This chapter considers future employment space requirements in Stoke-on- Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme for the period 2013-2039 by drawing on a number of methodologies guided by the Practice Guidance. These scenarios are used to inform the assessment of future employment space needs for office and industrial (i.e. manufacturing and distribution) uses.

8.2 The modelling work has been underpinned by data from three modelling houses to provide a rounded view of the future economic growth of the two districts: 1 Experian’s September 2014 quarterly data release (underpinning the respective Councils’ draft SHMA); 2 Cambridge Econometrics’ 2014 data release (provided by the Stoke- on-Trent and Staffordshire Local Enterprise Partnership [LEP]); and, 3 Oxford Economics’ May 2015 data release (directly obtained by NLP to inform this joint ELR).

Methodology

8.3 The Framework requires local authorities to: “set out a clear economic vision and strategy for their area which positively and proactively encourages sustainable economic growth” [§21]. In evidence base terms, this should be underpinned by a “clear understanding of business needs within the economic markets operating in and across their area” [§160].

8.4 To achieve this objective, a number of potential future economic scenarios have been developed in this study to provide a framework for considering the future economic growth needs and business-class employment space requirements for Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme between 2013 and 2039.

8.5 In line with the Practice Guidance, these future scenarios draw upon: 1 Projections of employment growth in the main business class sectors (labour demand) derived from the latest available economic forecasts prepared by Experian, Cambridge Econometrics and Oxford Economics; 2 Estimating future growth of local labour supply based on the housing requirements contained in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s emerging joint SHMA, and the amount of jobs and employment space that this could support, based on Turley’s demographic model runs; and,

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3 Consideration of past trends in completions of employment space based on monitoring data supplied by Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme and how these might change in future.

8.6 Accordingly, NLP’s assessment considers eight scenarios to help understand the implications of different assumptions on future demand outlined in Figure 8.1.

8.7 All of these approaches have some limitations and careful thought needs to be given as to how appropriate each is to circumstances within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme. This is particularly the case with past take up rates due to the quality of the data provided to NLP by STCC. It is considered that less weight can be attached to Scenario 8 as a consequence. It should be noted that the assessment is not purely quantitative; there will also be qualitative factors to consider when identifying future employment space needs.

Figure 8.1 Range of Growth Scenarios/Approaches

Forecasts of Job Growth

8.8 Forecasts of job growth for Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme for the period up to 2039 were obtained from Experian’s September 2014 quarterly release;63 Cambridge Econometrics [CE] 2014 annual release; and Oxford Economics’ [OE] May 2015 release.64 Unless otherwise stated, the term ‘jobs’ refers to total ‘workforce jobs’ and includes part time and full time employment.

8.9 It is important to acknowledge that there will be an element of landless growth or contraction here, whereby job growth or decline will not automatically give rise to an immediate increase or decrease in floorspace, or land, requirements.

63The data from Experian used is from the September 2014 release, the same dataset which was used in Turley’s draft Joint Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme SHMA (2015) 64 Not all of the forecasts provided employment figures up to the end of the plan period (2039). In these cases NLP extended the forecasts up until this date by using a pro rata method to extend the forecasts

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This is due in part to the current spare capacity across many firms in this part of the West Midlands, where companies that have laid off staff in the immediate aftermath of the recession, have been operating out of the same building and hence can accommodate a return to past staffing levels without having to physically expand their operations. Such latent capacity will have a bearing on the extent to which STCC and NLBC may wish to tailor their B1/B2/B8 allocations going forward, and should be monitored over time.

Labour Demand: Scenario 1 - Experian

8.10 The forecasts of job growth by sector used reflect recent trends at a regional level. Growth in the 38 industrial sectors was combined into Experian’s 12 ‘broad’ industrial sectors to enable meaningful comparison with the alternative CE and OE datasets. This level of job growth reflects how the Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme economies have performed relative to the West Midlands region’s growth in the recent past. These forecasts also reflect the current post-recession economic climate, and the significant uncertainty surrounding future macro-economic prospects generally (despite the recent upturn). It is stressed that policy interventions have been on-going for a number of years in both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme.

8.11 Experian’s Data Guide to its UK Regional Planning Service Model, setting out how its projections have been calculated, is included in Appendix 7.

8.12 The overall net job growth for both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, based on the Experian projections, is set out in Table 8.1. This indicates that over the period 2013-2039 there will be a net job growth of 30,605 in Stoke-on- Trent and 9,181 in Newcastle-under-Lyme.

8.13 The main sectoral drivers for growth in Stoke-on-Trent relates to Accommodation & Food Services (+9,156); Wholesale & Retail (+7,060); Transport & Storage (+5,017) and to a lesser extent Professional and Other Private Services (+4,138). This is counteracted, to an extent, by a continued decline in Manufacturing, which is forecast to fall by a further 2,760 jobs having already declined by 24,399 jobs since 1997 (a precipitous decline of 65%).

8.14 Within Newcastle-under-Lyme, the sectors expected to be the key drivers of employment growth within the Borough over the next 26 years include Transport & Storage (+6,876), Manufacturing (+2,366) and Professional & Other Private Services (+6,039), and to a far lesser degree, Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation (+800). Three broad sectors are forecast to bear the brunt of job losses in the Borough, namely: Information & Communication (-903); Wholesale & Retail (-2,154); and Public Services (-2,785).

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Table 8.1 Total Experian Workforce Job Growth, 2013-2039

Sector Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-under-Lyme Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 6 -104 Mining and Quarrying -49 0 Manufacturing -2,760 2,366 Utilities 638 -36 Construction 2,521 -430 Wholesale and Retail 7,060 -2,154 Transport and Storage 5,017 6,876 Accommodation, Food Services and 9,156 800 Recreation Information and Communication 1,564 -903 Finance and Insurance 1,609 -488 Professional and Other Private 4,138 6,039 Services Public Services 1,704 -2,785 TOTAL 30,605 9,181 Source: Experian 2014 Note: Totals do not add due to rounding errors

8.15 Table 8.2 summarises the job growth over the Plan period 2013-2039 for Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, with the job growth separated out by B-Use Classes. This includes an allowance for jobs in other non B-class sectors that typically utilise industrial or office space, such as some construction uses, vehicle repair, courier services, road transport and cargo handling and some public administration activities (see Appendix 8 for a detailed breakdown).

Table 8.2 Forecast Employment Change in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013-2039 – Experian Baseline Jobs, by Use Class

Offices Manufacturing Distribution Total B-class Other Non B- Jobs in All (B1a/b)* (B1c/B2)** (B8)*** Jobs Class Jobs Sectors

Stoke-on-Trent 5,458 -1,458 5,719 9,719 20,886 30,605 Newcastle-under-Lyme 1,366 1,618 5,606 8,589 592 9,181 Source: Source: Experian 2014 / NLP analysis * includes a proportion of public sector employment and administration & support services **includes vehicle repair and some construction activities *** includes elements of transport & communications sectors

8.16 Using Experian’s baseline projections (which are largely based on past trends and current representation across the industrial classifications relative to the national and regional averages), Table 8.2 suggests relatively high overall net job gains in B class sectors (9,719 jobs) within Stoke-on-Trent up to 2039. Growth is evenly distributed between office activities (5,458) and distribution jobs (5,719), counteracted by a moderate decline in manufacturing jobs (- 1,618). This is, however, set within the context of total job growth of 30,605 for the City over the plan period, predominantly in the Transport & Storage, Recreation, Retail, Health and Accommodation & Food Services sectors.

8.17 In Newcastle-under-Lyme the Experian projections suggest an overall growth in employment of 9,181, of which the vast majority (8,589 or 94%) are within B-

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class sectors. Of these B-class jobs, 5,606 (65%) relate to B8 distribution employment, compared to more modest growth in office and manufacturing employment (1,366 and 1,618 net jobs respectively).

8.18 It should be noted that the non-B class key growth sectors will also require additional floorspace to accommodate an increase in employment over the period to 2039 (including some conventional office space). The spatial implications of this growth are considered using different methodologies and other forms of technical evidence outwith the scope of this joint ELR.

8.19 The B-class element of these employment growth forecasts have been converted to net future employment floorspace requirements by applying the latest published density figures for employment space. This takes into account recent trends in occupancy for the different B class uses.

8.20 To estimate space requirements, the following average ratios have been applied to the job forecasts: 1 Office: One B1a/b general office workforce job requires 12.5 sq. m. of employment floorspace [Gross External Area, or GEA]; 2 Industry: A combined B1c/B2 factor of one job per 42 sq. m. was obtained by taking an average of one B1c light industrial job (47 sq. m.) and one B2 industrial workforce job (36 sq. m.) of employment floorspace [GEA]; 3 Warehousing: 1 job per 65 sqm is assumed for general, smaller scale warehousing, and 1 job per 74 sqm for larger warehousing (with a 50 / 50 split assumed between the two).

8.21 These assumptions are based on the latest HCA/Offpat guidance on employment densities published in 2010, adjusted to translate FTEs into workforce jobs.65 This guidance takes account of recent trends in terms of the changing use of employment space, the main change being the more efficient utilisation of office space due to increased flexible working and hot-desking. This has resulted in a decrease in the amount of floorspace per office worker compared to previous guidance.

8.22 An adjustment has been made to reflect the fact that vacancy rates in Stoke- on-Trent are currently c.32% for commercial floorspace and c18% for industrial/warehousing floorspace. In Newcastle-under-Lyme the equivalent figures are c.25% for commercial floorspace and c.15% for industrial/warehousing floorspace66. On the basis that a figure of 10% better reflects ‘normal’ market conditions, the model has assumed that where current rates are lower, the future supply should be adjusted so that the stock is brought back into balance and achieves a vacancy rate of 10% overall by 2039. This way the model ensures that slightly less land is provided to reduce vacancy rates to a more sustainable level. Whilst it would be preferable for the

65 Based on HCA/Offpat Employment Densities Guide (2010) and converted to Gross External Area (GEA) and total workforce jobs by NLP 66 This data was obtained by analysing available employment vacancy data, provided by ‘Make It Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire’ in April 2015

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two districts to work towards bringing down the level of vacancy closer to the 10% rate far sooner than 2039, in terms of the mechanics of the modelling process, when the 10% rate is achieved it has no impact on the overall requirement.

8.23 Where a reduction in jobs is forecast (such as within B1c/B2 manufacturing in Stoke-on-Trent) the associated negative floorspace has been halved to reflect the fact that job decline at a particular company does not automatically translate into a comparable loss of floorspace, at least not in the short-medium term, due in part to companies being locked into long-term leasing agreements.

8.24 The resultant floorspace projections are provided in Table 8.3. For Stoke-on- Trent they indicate a total net B-class floorspace requirement of over 300,000 sqm, driven primarily by growth in B8 distribution; slight growth of B1a/b office; and a slight decline in B1c/B2 manufacturing floorspace. Within Newcastle- under-Lyme they indicate a total net B-class floorspace requirement of over 450,000 sqm, primarily driven by growth in B8 distribution; moderate growth of B1c/B2 manufacturing and a slight increase in B1a/b office.

8.25 The latter figure in particular is low relative to the high level of job growth due to the substantial amount of vacant office floorspace that is currently available in the Borough (25%), and which the model seeks to reduce before identifying a need for fresh office space to be developed.

Table 8.3 Forecast Net Floorspace Change (sqm) in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013- 2039

Offices Manufacturing Distribution 2013-2039 Total B-class (B1a/b) (B1c/B2) (B8)

Stoke-on-Trent 21,378 -30,608 343,337 334,108 Newcastle-under-Lyme 2,485 56,550 398,160 457,195 Source: Experian/NLP Analysis

Labour Demand: Scenario 2 - Cambridge Econometrics

8.26 The overall CE baseline employment change in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme amounts to 12,686 and 9,898 jobs respectively between 2013 and 2039. The split of job growth for each of the sectors (compiled into the 12 broad SIC 2007 sectors, as per the Experian employment projections) over the period 2013-2039 is presented in Table 8.4.

8.27 The data indicates that within Stoke-on-Trent, Public Services, Professional & Other Private Services and Construction are expected to be the key drivers of employment growth within the Borough over the next 26 years. The sectors forecast to incur the largest employment losses during this period include Manufacturing, and to a lesser extent, Wholesale & Retail and Mining & Quarrying.

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Table 8.4 Total Cambridge Econometrics Workforce Job Growth, 2013-2039

Newcastle-under- Sector Stoke-on-Trent Lyme Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing -9 -60 Mining and Quarrying -26 0 Manufacturing -2,835 10 Utilities 756 149 Construction 2,745 1,512 Wholesale and Retail -350 -552 Transport and Storage 2,149 3,116 Accommodation, Food Services and 2,661 221 Recreation Information and Communication 561 823 Finance and Insurance 249 174 Professional and Other Private Services 2,815 2,170 Public Services 3,941 2,318 TOTAL 12,686 9,898 Source: Cambridge Econometrics 2014 / NLP analysis Note: Totals do not add due to rounding errors

8.28 Within Newcastle-under-Lyme, the CE forecasts indicate that Transport & Storage, Public Services and Professional & Other Private Services will be the key drivers for employment growth within the Borough over the next 26 years (with each expected to grow by over 2,000 jobs). Sectors forecast to incur the largest employment losses during this period include Wholesale & Retail; Manufacturing; and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (although the scale of job losses are far outstripped by the substantial gains forecast in the aforementioned growth sectors).

8.29 Table 8.5 summarises the job growth over the Plan period 2013-2039 for Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme using the CE employment forecasts, with the job growth separated out by B-Use Classes. This includes an allowance for jobs in other non B class sectors that typically utilise industrial or office space, such as some construction uses, vehicle repair, courier services, road transport and cargo handling and some public administration activities (see Appendix 8 for a full breakdown).

Table 8.5 Forecast Employment Change in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013-2039 – Baseline Jobs, by Use Class [CE]

Offices Manufacturing Distribution Total B-class Other Non B- Jobs in All

(B1a/b)* (B1c/B2)** (B8)*** Jobs Class Jobs Sectors

Stoke-on-Trent 2,215 -1,472 2,140 2,883 9,803 12,686 Newcastle-under-Lyme 1,849 503 3,417 5,769 4,129 9,898 Source: Cambridge Econometrics 2014 / NLP analysis * includes a proportion of public sector employment and administration & support services **includes vehicle repair and some construction activities *** includes elements of transport & communications sectors

8.30 Table 8.5 suggests that of the 12,700 net additional job growth forecast for Stoke-on-Trent, just 23% (2,883) are likely to relate to B-Class uses. By contrast, of the 9,900 net jobs forecast for Newcastle-under-Lyme, 58% are in the B-Class sectors (+5,769).

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8.31 As with Experian’s projections, Stoke-on-Trent is forecast to see a decline in manufacturing employment, with employment growth broadly shared between office and distribution. The majority of Newcastle-under-Lyme’s 5,800 forecast net job growth in the B-class sectors are within B8 storage and distribution, with more moderate growth in office (1,800) and manufacturing (500).

8.32 As with the Experian forecasts: 1 The B-class element of these employment growth forecasts have been converted to net future employment space requirements by applying the latest published density figures for employment space;67 2 Adjustments have been made in order to achieve sustainable vacancy rates of 10% overall by 2039; and, 3 Negative floorspace projections have been halved to reflect the fact that job decline at a particular company does not automatically translate into a comparable loss of floorspace.

8.33 The resultant CE-based floorspace projections are provided in Table 8.6. Within Stoke-on-Trent they indicate a total net B-class floorspace requirement of 35,300 sqm, driven primarily by growth in B8 distribution, with moderate declines in both B1a/b office and B1c/B2 manufacturing floorspace. Within Newcastle-under-Lyme they indicate a total net B-class floorspace requirement of over 240,000 sqm, driven almost exclusively by growth in B8 distribution in addition to more modest growth in B1a/b office and B1c/B2 manufacturing floorspace.

Table 8.6 Forecast Net Floorspace Change (sqm) in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013- 2039 [CE]

Offices Manufacturing Distribution 2013-2039 Total B-class (B1a/b) (B1c/B2) (B8)

Stoke-on-Trent -12,859 -30,904 79,096 35,333 Newcastle-under-Lyme 8,832 2,812 232,106 243,750 Source: Cambridge Econometrics 2014 / NLP analysis

Labour Demand: Scenario 3 - Oxford Economics

8.34 The third and final set of employment projections relates to Oxford Economics’ [OE] May 2015 data release.

8.35 The overall OE baseline employment change in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme resulting from these projections amounts to 3,456 and 6,329 jobs respectively between 2013 and 2039. As with the Experian and CE forecasts, the raw projections (based on 19 industrial categories) were mapped into the twelve broad SIC2007 categories for comparative purposes. The results of the forecasts are presented in Table 8.7.

67 Based on HCA/Offpat Employment Densities Guide (2010) and converted to Gross External Area (GEA) and total workforce jobs by NLP.

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Table 8.7 Total Oxford Economics Workforce Job Growth, 2013-2039

Sector Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-under-Lyme

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing -11 -64 Mining and Quarrying -32 0 Manufacturing -5,716 -904 Utilities -212 -43 Construction 1,327 765 Wholesale and Retail 762 788 Transport and Storage 859 1,167 Accommodation, Food Services and 2,909 715 Recreation Information and Communication 1,122 399 Finance and Insurance -151 -39 Professional and Other Private 2,780 3,227 Services Public Services -181 318 TOTAL 3,456 6,329 Source: Oxford Economics 2015 / NLP analysis

8.36 This analysis indicates that within Stoke-on-Trent, Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation; Professional & Other Private Services; and Construction are expected to be the key drivers of employment growth within the Borough over the next 26 years, with a collective net increase in jobs equal to 7,015 over the 26-year Plan period. However, this is almost entirely counter-acted by the substantial job declines forecast in the Manufacturing sectors, which are forecast to fall by 5,716 jobs.

8.37 For Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough, the OE projections indicate that Professional & Other Private Services; Transport & Storage; and Wholesale & Retail are likely to be the key drivers of employment growth within the Borough over the next 26 years. Sectors forecast to incur the largest employment losses during this period include Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and Manufacturing.

8.38 As with the Experian and CE forecasts, the OE job growth over the Plan period for Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme has been separated out into B- Class and non B-Class uses in Table 8.8.

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Table 8.8 Forecast Employment Change in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013-2039 – Baseline Jobs, by Use Class [OE]

Offices Manufacturing Distribution Total B-class Other Non B- Jobs in All (B1a/b)* (B1c/B2)** (B8)*** Jobs Class Jobs Sectors

Stoke-on-Trent 1,847 -5,134 965 -2,321 5,777 3,456

Newcastle-under-Lyme 1,838 -478 1,363 2,723 3,606 6,329 Source: Oxford Economics 2015 / NLP analysis

* includes a proportion of public sector employment and administration & support services

**includes vehicle repair and some construction activities

*** includes elements of transport & communications sectors

See Appendix 8 for a full breakdown

8.39 Table 8.8 suggests an overall decline in jobs in the B-class sectors for Stoke- on-Trent, whereas Newcastle-under-Lyme would see a modest increase of over 2,700 B-class jobs in the period up to 2039. Stoke-on-Trent’s losses are due to the substantial reduction in manufacturing employment of 5,134 workers over the plan period. Whilst Newcastle-under-Lyme also sees a reduction in this use-class, it is less than a tenth of Stoke-on-Trent’s losses, resulting in overall B-class employment growth.

8.40 As with the Experian and CE forecasts the OE job forecasts have been translated into floorspace projections using a series of employment multipliers and assumptions concerning vacancy rates. The results are presented in Table 8.9.

8.41 The figures for Stoke-on-Trent indicate a total net B-class floorspace reduction of over 130,000 sqm, driven primarily by a reduction in B1c/B2 manufacturing floorspace (although B1a office and B8 warehouse floorspace is also forecast to decline). Newcastle-under-Lyme’s floorspace projections are positive overall, at nearly 68,000 sqm, driven primarily by growth in B8 distribution floorspace; more modest growth of B1a/b office floorspace; and a decline in B1c/B2 manufacturing floorspace.

Table 8.9 Forecast Net Floorspace Change (sqm) in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013- 2039 [OE]

Offices Manufacturing Distribution 2013-2039 Total B-class (B1a/b) (B1c/B2) (B8)

Stoke-on-Trent -15,556 -107,811 -9,804 -133,171 Newcastle-under-Lyme 9,135 -10,037 68,774 67,872 Source: Oxford Economics 2015 / NLP analysis

Summary: Econometric Demand-side Employment Projections

8.42 It is important to recognise that there are inevitably uncertainties and limitations associated with modelling assumptions under any of the future labour demand scenarios considered. In particular, there are some inherent limitations to the

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use of local level employment forecasts generally and also where there may be data anomalies in the source data used to build the forecasts (which then have the potential to become exacerbated over time).

8.43 The forecasters do not disclose the many assumptions they make concerning the local and regional economy, along with the adjustments made to the raw data in order to calculate such forecasts. Because of this, it is difficult to make decisions regarding the weight to attach to each forecast. However, by comparing and contrasting the three separate forecasts it is possible to take more authoritative decisions regarding future employment land provision.

8.44 In this regard, Table 8.10 presents a comparison of the three econometric, demand-led, job projections across the 12 comparable industrial sectors, whilst Figure 8.2 to Figure 8.5 demonstrate the overall divergence between the three different employment forecasts (including the B-class job growth).

8.45 The differences are striking – the level of net job growth for Stoke-on Trent projected by Experian is almost two-and-a-half times the level projected by CE, and almost nine-times higher than the OE projections. By way of contrast, the three projections for Newcastle-under-Lyme are much closer together, although the CE projections are the highest –9,696 compared to 9,181 for Experian and 6,329 jobs for OE.

8.46 For the most part, the key sectors that are increasing / decreasing the most for both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme tend to be similar; the issue is the scale of change. Hence for Stoke-on-Trent, Manufacturing is projected to decline by -2,760 under the Experian projections; -2,835 with the CE equivalents and -5,716 for the OE forecasts.

8.47 Similarly growth in Accommodation, Food Services and Recreation in Stoke- on-Trent is forecast to be +8,452 using Experian; +2,661 for CE and 2,909 for OE. There do appear to be some significant anomalies between the projections however, for Stoke-on-Trent, Wholesale and Retail is forecast to increase by 7,060 in Experian’s projections, but to decline by 350 jobs in CE’s.

8.48 For Newcastle-under-Lyme, Transport and Storage is forecast to increase by 6,876 jobs using Experian’s projections, compared to much lower growth rates using CE (+4,116) and OE’s (+1,167) projections.

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Table 8.10 Comparison of Econometric Models’ Workforce Net Job Growth, 2013-2039

Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-under-Lyme Sector Experian CE OE Experian CE OE

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 6 -9 -11 -104 -60 -64 Mining and Quarrying -49 -26 -32 0 0 0 Manufacturing -2,760 -2,835 -5,716 2,366 10 -904 Utilities 638 756 -212 -36 149 -43 Construction 2,521 2,745 1,327 -430 1,512 765 Wholesale and Retail 7,060 -350 762 -2,154 -552 788 Transport and Storage 5,017 2,149 859 6,876 3,116 1,167 Accommodation, Food Services 9,156 2,661 2,909 800 221 715 & Recreation Information and Communication 1,564 561 1,122 -903 823 399 Finance and Insurance 1,609 249 -151 -488 174 -39 Professional & Other Private 4,138 2,815 2,780 6,039 2,170 3,227 Services Public Services 1,704 3,941 -181 -2,785 2,318 318 TOTAL 30,605 12,686 3,456 9,181 9,898 6,329 Source: Experian December 2014 / CE 2014 / OE 2015 / NLP analysis

Figure 8.2 Stoke-on-Trent Total Job Growth by Scenario (2013-2039)

160,000

150,000

140,000

130,000 Workforce Jobs Workforce

120,000

110,000

100,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Experian Total Jobs Oxford Economics Total Jobs Cambridge Econometrics Total Jobs

Source: Experian / Oxford Economics / Cambridge Econometrics / NLP analysis

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Figure 8.3 Sectoral Job Growth in Stoke-on-Trent (2013- 2039)

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

-2,000

-4,000

-6,000

-8,000 Experian Oxford Economics Cambridge Econometrics

Source: Experian / Oxford Economics / Cambridge Econometrics / NLP analysis

Figure 8.4 Newcastle-under-Lyme Total Job Growth by Scenario (2013- 2039)

64,000

62,000

60,000

58,000

56,000 Workforce Jobs Workforce

54,000

52,000

50,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 Experian Total Jobs Cambridge Econometrics Total Jobs Oxford Economics Total Jobs Source: Experian / Oxford Economics / Cambridge Econometrics / NLP analysis

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Figure 8.5 Sectoral Job Growth in Newcastle-under-Lyme (2013- 2039)

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 Manufacturing Utilities Construction Wholesale and Transport and Accommodation, Information and Finance and Professional and Public Services Retail Storage Food Services Communication Insurance Other Private and Recreation Services

-2,000

-4,000 Experian Oxford Economics Cambridge Econometrics Source: Experian / Oxford Economics / Cambridge Econometrics / NLP analysis

8.49 In terms of the weight that can be attached to the three scenarios, it is worth examining the level of job growth that has been achieved in both districts in the past. Over the past decade (2003-2013), ONS data relating to job density statistics suggests that the total number of jobs68 has grown by 4,000 in Stoke- on-Trent, at a rate of 400 jobs annually. The equivalent figure in Newcastle- under-Lyme is 2,000 or 200 jobs annually. Trended forward over the 26-year projection period, this would equate to a total job growth of 10,400 in Stoke-on- Trent, and 5,200 in Newcastle-under-Lyme.

8.50 Compared to past trends, the Cambridge Econometrics projections appear to represent the closest alignment for Stoke-on-Trent. Whilst they are around 20% higher than past trends suggest have been achieved over the past decade, both the Oxford Economics and Experian projections appear to be out of sync with what has been achieved in the past. The Experian projections are almost three times higher than past growth levels, whilst the OE projections are around two thirds lower.

8.51 Furthermore, the sectors which are expected to experience the greatest level of growth / decline vary significantly amongst the three scenarios. For example, in Stoke-on-Trent, Figure 8.3 demonstrates clearly that the projected growth in Wholesale & Retail, Transport & Storage, and Accommodation, Food Services and Recreation, under the Experian projections, is significantly out of step with the equivalent sectoral growth for either the CE or OE projections.

68 Under the ONS Job Density definition, total jobs includes employees, self-employed, government-supported trainees and HM Forces

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8.52 As for Newcastle-under-Lyme, all three projections are in excess of the level of growth that would be achieved based on past trends (5,200 net job growth 2013-2039, compared to +6,329 for OE, 9,181 for Experian and 9,898 for CE). Whilst the CE projections are the highest of all three, the sectoral growth forecasts tend to be more evenly split across the sectors. Figure 8.5 in particular demonstrates that the Experian growth is underpinned almost entirely by exponential growth in just two sectors – Transport & Storage and Professional & Other Private Services, in stark contrast to the other two projections. Furthermore, the OE projections forecast negligible growth across most of the sectors.

8.53 On balance, it is considered that in the case of these two local authorities, greater weight should be attached to the Cambridge Econometrics projections, given that (particularly for Stoke-on-Trent) they represent a positive, but nevertheless realistic, uplift on past trends, whilst growth appears more evenly spread across the various sectors. This is particularly the case when compared to the Experian forecasts, which feature very high levels of growth in a few isolated sectors in contrast to the other two projections. This also contrasts with past trends in job growth as reported in Experian’s historic data – historic growth between 2000 and 2013 was heavily suppressed by substantial decline in Manufacturing (-19,775), with growth distributed amongst public services (+6,489), Professional and Other Private Services (+2,964), Transport and Storage (+3,462), Accommodation, Food Services and Recreation (+2,862) and Utilities (+444). Whilst the OE projections also have merit (and indeed are closer to past growth rates for Newcastle-under-Lyme), these are pessimistic given the current economic recovery and in the context of the various regeneration programmes pursued by the two local authorities.

8.54 On this basis, the CE forecasts have been used as the basis for the Policy On projection and also the B-Class split for the three labour supply projections that follow.

Labour Demand: Scenario 4 – Cambridge Econometrics Policy On

8.55 An alternative job-based estimate of future needs has been compiled which is termed the Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme ‘Policy-On’ scenario. Following discussions with Stoke-on-Trent City Council and Newcastle-under- Lyme Borough Council’s Officers, individual detailed Standard Industrial Classifications used in the CE workforce projections were assessed to test whether there were any concrete policy justifications for modifying any of the categories. It is recognised that limited conclusions can be drawn from the results of such an approach, as the CE forecasts for Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme are complex and consistent with those of other authorities in the region.

8.56 With this caveat in mind, the Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire LEP identifies in its Strategic Economic Plan [SEP], several core growth sectors that have

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growth potential that should be promoted and supported in the years ahead. These include the five advanced manufacturing sectors of: 1 Energy Generation 2 Auto-Aero 3 Medical Technology 4 Agri-Tech 5 Applied Materials69

8.57 In addition to these industries, the LEP also focuses on strengthening the important ‘barometer’ sectors of Tourism and Professional Services.

8.58 Whilst this provides a helpful context, the SEP does not identify specific projects or job targets relating to these aspirations. To overcome this, NLP has made reference to other Economic Strategies for the two districts, specifically the Stoke City Centre Regeneration Strategy (2014), which does provide quantitative data relating to forthcoming projects, and also held discussions with STCC and NLBC Planning and Economic Development Officers to identify other suitable projects for inclusion. These have been analysed in order to determine which sectors will benefit in terms of additional employment. Not all of the projects analysed are within the LEP’s target sectors – many are likely to generate employment in sectors within which the authorities are already strongly represented.

8.59 The study area has experienced significant industrial restructuring over the past 20-30 years or so, which has manifested itself though a sustained decline in manufacturing employment. Whilst there has been a transition from manufacturing towards the service sector, this shift has specifically been towards distribution, public sector and consumer services. There has been a much weaker shift towards higher value sectors such as financial and business services, particularly in Stoke-on-Trent.70 Indeed, BRES data shows that the SIC2007 category of ‘professional, scientific and technical activities’ contracted by 4.2% in Stoke-on-Trent over the period 2009-2013, versus a 3.6% increase in North Staffordshire region; a 6.8% increase in the LEP area overall71 and an 11.6% increase in Newcastle-under-Lyme72.

8.60 All of the econometric modelling houses used in this study forecast employment in manufacturing to fall across the study area. However this total level of manufacturing employment is a summation of a number of manufacturing sub-sectors, and areas of comparative advantage (and hence job growth) are visible. For instance whilst Experian project Stoke-on-Trent’s manufacturing sector as a whole to decline by 2,760 jobs, the sub-sector of ‘Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing’ is forecast to increase by 15%, by 2039.

69 Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire (2014) Strategic Economic Plan, page 2 70 Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council and Stoke-on-Trent City Council (2009) Core Spatial Strategy 2006 -2026 paragraph 2.8 71 Jim Plunkett-Cole (2015) Strategic Analysis of Future Economic Growth Potential for Stoke-on-Trent, pg.47 72 ONS (2014) Business Register and Employment Survey

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8.61 Likewise, Cambridge Econometrics’ employment projections forecast manufacturing employment to remain broadly stable over the period to 2039; however Food and Drink Manufacturing is forecast to grow significantly, by +438 over this period.

Stoke-on-Trent

8.62 Stoke-on-Trent City Council commissioned the ‘Stoke City Centre Regeneration Strategy’73 in 2014. This report undertook an economic impact assessment of various projects which are likely to come forward within the City in the short-to-medium term in order to determine the likely cumulative outcomes of such projects in terms of employment and economic output.

8.63 Based on a detailed review of this document, NLP has compiled the floorspace projections for each project, and applied the relevant employment densities for each constituent use-class (taking into account the assumed vacancy rates of each) to calculate approximately how many gross additional employees each project was likely to create. These jobs were then mapped across to ‘best fit’ with the standard industrial sectors which form the basis of the Cambridge Econometric projections.

8.64 In addition to the employment derived from the floorspace figures, the gross employment figures also incorporate the employment resulting from the construction of each project. This information was calculated using the full time equivalent [FTE] figures within the Economic Impact Assessment report74, and was then applied to the ratio of full / part time construction workers within Stoke-on-Trent (using information gathered from the Business Register Employment Survey [BRES]) to derive a total employment figure. The Gross Additional Employment generated from each Stoke-on-Trent City project contained within the regeneration report, along with the approximate comparable Standard Industrial Classifications [SIC], are listed in Table 8.11.

8.65 Table 8.11 is also supplemented with details provided by STCC regarding the Ceramics Valley Enterprise Zone [EZ] (which was officially approved in November 2015). This comprises an area of 250 ha incorporating largely cleared individual sites with a total net developable area of over 140 ha of net developable area of over 140 ha, all benefiting from Assisted Area status. The Ceramics Valley EZ proposal involves investment of £76m to open up these sites with £24m coming from the private sector. Employment densities, as used within the other forecasting scenarios, were applied to the floorspace quantities of each constituent site in order to calculate the relevant employment resulting from each.

8.66 STCC confirms that sites within the confirmed Ceramics Valley EZ comprise: 1 Etruria Valley - On site now with Phase One being built out by Bet365 and DPD Geopost. As a result of a Growth Deal with the Government, the infrastructure is currently being put in place for the final phases of this

73 Amion Consulting (2014) Stoke City Centre Regeneration Strategy – Economic Impact Assessment 74 Ibid. page 54

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flagship development. This site will have the largest mix of sectors; earlier phases have seen investments in ceramics (e.g. Wade) and energy (Heatex), and these, along with automotive supply chain, will continue to be the focus of the marketing activity. 2 Tunstall Arrow – On site June 2016. This cleared site is owned (and being marketed) by developers Network Space. Substantial interest has been shown in this site, and it lends itself very well to light manufacturing (B1-type uses), which reflects previous planning permissions. The site will be heavily promoted to smaller manufacturers. 3 Cliffe Vale – On site October 2016. This largely cleared site is owned by the City Council. The council is working in a joint venture with the ORTUS consortium (which includes the developers Wilmot Dixon, Gleeds Consultants etc), to bring to market a range of speculative industrial workshop units, as there is an identified market failure in this type of provision. 4 Highgate/Ravensdale – On site 2017. Planning permission has already been granted on parts of the site, and most of the site is now clear. Work is required to improve the access and remediate part of the site. Given its previous use as industrial land and the proximity of existing companies, the site lends itself to modern manufacturing uses and will be promoted accordingly. It will suit a range of development sizes from small scale up to 9,290 sq m. 5 Chatterley Valley East - On site 2017. This site comprises two sections. The cleared (north-eastern) part of the site is located between two large blue-chip companies, JCB Earthmovers and Churchill China. As such it will be marketed to companies within the automotive and ceramic supply chains. The southern part contains the Genesis Enterprise Centre, which has ambitious expansion plans. 6 Chatterley Valley West - On site 2017/18. This is a large greenfield site in three sections. They lend themselves to light industry/workshop (which will be promoted to small companies in the energy generation sector); logistics; and larger workshops.75

75 STCC October 2015. It should be noted that, as this site is based within Newcastle-under-Lyme, the employment resulting from this site has been apportioned to Newcastle-under-Lyme.

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Table 8.11 Net Additional Employment for Regeneration Projections in Stoke-on-Trent

Net Additional Approximate Comparable Standard Industrial Project Employment Classifications  Offices (B1a/B1b) o Media o IT services o Financial & insurance o Real estate o Legal & accounting o Head offices & management consultancies o Architectural & engineering services o Other professional services  Manufacturing (B1c/B2) o Food, drink & tobacco o Textiles etc Ceramics Valley 5,557 o Wood & paper Enterprise Zone o Printing & recording o Coke & petroleum o Chemicals o Pharmaceuticals o Non-metallic mineral products o Metals & metal products o Electronics o Electrical equipment o Machinery o Motor vehicles o Other transport equipment o Other manufacturing & repair  Wholesale trade (B8)  Construction  Retail  Accommodation & Food Services  Recreation Smithfield (Central 4,424  Computing and Information Technology Business District)  Finance  Insurance and Pensions  Real Estate  Professional Services  Construction  Retail  Accommodation & Food Services  Recreation City Centre Retail 2,624  Computing and Information Technology  Finance  Insurance and Pensions  Real Estate

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 Professional Services  Construction Potteries Expansion 169  Retail  Recreation  Construction Spode Works 664  Retail  Recreation  Construction 336 Uni Q  Education  Construction 44 District Heating Network  Utilities

TOTAL 8,260 Source: Amion Consulting (2014) Stoke City Centre Regeneration Strategy – EIA / NLP analysis

Newcastle-Under-Lyme

8.67 NLBC Officers identified a series of sectors which the Borough is targeting, along with several projects likely to provide new sources of employment (some of which target these sectors specifically and others which target employment more generally across sectors). Details of the key projects and the estimated job growth are listed within Table 8.12.

8.68 It should be noted that this represents a conservative estimate, in the sense that there are several additional projects that the Keele University is aiming to pursue in the future, including the growth and expansion of medical research in both primary and secondary care and extended/diversified research (including collaboration with international business and HE sectors). However, the employment benefits of these projects are, at present, difficult to quantify, and so they have not been incorporated into this Policy-On scenario.

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Table 8.12 Gross Additional Employment for Regeneration Projections in Newcastle-under-Lyme

Gross Additional Approximate Comparable Standard Industrial Project Employment Classifications  Retail; Ryecroft 350  Recreation Belong Village 65  Residential Care Aldi 30  Retail Performing Arts 20  Recreation Centre Zanzibar 200  Professional Services Blue Planet (JCB) 250  Transport Equipment Manufacturing  Pharmaceutical Manufacturing; Innovation Centre  Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing; / Keele Science 2,600  Telecoms; Park  Computing and Information Services  Other Professional Services  Offices (B1a/B1b) o Media o IT services o Financial & insurance o Real estate o Legal & accounting o Head offices & management consultancies o Architectural & engineering services o Other professional services  Manufacturing (B1c/B2) o Food, drink & tobacco o Textiles etc Ceramics Valley 1,918 o Wood & paper Enterprise Zone o Printing & recording o Coke & petroleum o Chemicals o Pharmaceuticals o Non-metallic mineral products o Metals & metal products o Electronics o Electrical equipment o Machinery o Motor vehicles o Other transport equipment o Other manufacturing & repair  Wholesale trade (B8) TOTAL 5,433 Source: NLBC / NLP analysis

8.69 Table 8.13 summarises the total jobs in both authorities anticipated to arise under the Policy-On Scenario. It indicates that over the Plan period 2013-

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2039, there would be a total of 20,947 gross additional jobs in Stoke-on-Trent, of which 12,989 are likely to be based on B-class land. This represents a significant increase over and above the level projected under the CE scenario, the vast majority of which would be in either B1office or non-B Class uses.

8.70 For Newcastle-under-Lyme, the Policy-On scenario indicates a total of 15,330 gross additional jobs would be based in the Borough, of which 10,736 are likely to be based on B-class land.

Table 8.13 CE Policy On Gross Additional Jobs

Offices Manufacturing Distribution Total B- Other Non B- Jobs in All (B1a/b) (B1c/B2) (B8) Class Jobs Class Jobs Sectors Stoke-on-Trent 8,772 1,639 2,578 12,989 7,958 20,947 Newcastle-under- 4,239 2,239 4,258 10,736 4,594 15,330 Lyme Source: NLP analysis / STCC / NLBC / Amion Consulting

8.71 These employment forecasts were added on to the CE baseline projections and converted into floorspace requirements in a similar manner as before (Table 8.14).

Table 8.14 Forecast Net Floorspace Change (sqm) in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013- 2039 – ‘CE Policy On’

Offices Manufacturing Distribution 2013-2039 Total B-class (B1a/b) (B1c/B2) (B8)

Stoke-on-Trent 65,358 -17,801 112,918 160,475

Newcastle-under-Lyme 42,027 83,825 297,050 422,902 Source: CE / NLP Analysis

8.72 The resulting projections for Stoke-on-Trent suggest an increase of 160,475 sqm of B-class floorspace (net) overall, compared to an additional 422,902 sqm in Newcastle-under-Lyme. Relative to the CE baseline scenario, Stoke- on-Trent’s Policy On projection sees a substantial increase of over 125,000 in B-Class floorspace. For Newcastle-under-Lyme, the equivalent increase in floorspace is even more pronounced, with an increase of over 179,100 sqm.

Labour Supply: Scenarios 5 to 7

8.73 It is also important to consider how many jobs (and hence how much employment space) would be needed to align with the forecast growth in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s resident workforce. In contrast to the preceding approaches, this projects the supply of labour, rather than labour demand. It then estimates the amount of new jobs needed to support this future supply of workers, and how much employment space would be needed to accommodate these jobs.

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76 8.74 A joint Strategic Housing Market Assessment [SHMA] has been undertaken by consultants on behalf of both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme Councils. Using the PopGroup demographic modelling tool, the consultants have identified three preferred demographic scenarios for Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme: 1 SNPP-2012 scenario (452 dwellings per annum [dpa] for Stoke-on-Trent and 239 dpa for Newcastle-under-Lyme); 2 10 Year Past Growth including Unattributed Population Change scenario (749 dpa for Stoke-on-Trent and 303 dpa for Newcastle-under-Lyme); 3 10 Year Past Growth excluding Unattributed Population Change scenario (600 dpa for Stoke-on-Trent and 329 dpa for Newcastle-under-Lyme).

8.75 The resultant projections are presented in Table 8.15. It indicates that the number of net job growth for Stoke-on-Trent could range from a low of 3,828 net additional jobs, to a high of 12,667. The Newcastle under-Lyme job growth associated with the dwelling requirements has a much narrower range, of between -567 to +2,081 over the 26-year plan period. It should be noted that further scenarios were used to inform the SHMA based on these three preferred demographic scenarios. However, as these sensitivity tests involved changing the headship rates (i.e. the propensity of a person of a certain age to form a head of a household), there was no change to projected population and hence job growth. As such, the ELR and SHMA are aligned.

Table 8.15 SHMA Housing OAN Modelling Outputs

Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013 2039 Change 2013 2039 Change SNPP-2012 (452 dpa in SoT) (239 dpa in NuL) Population 250,490 267,365 16,875 124,359 131,618 7,259 Households 108,074 119,377 11,303 52,935 58,959 6,024 Dwellings 112,384 124,137 11,753 54,592 60,805 6,213 Labour Force 119,710 119,000 -710 61,405 59,289 -2,116 Jobs 114,921 118,749 3,828 49,071 48,505 -567 10 Year Past Growth (including UPC) (749 dpa in SoT) (303 dpa in NuL) Population 250,227 282,995 32,768 125,239 135,738 10,499 Households 107,944 126,666 18,722 53,167 60,803 7,637 Dwellings 112,249 131,717 19,469 54,831 62,707 7,876 Labour Force 119,412 127,571 8,159 62,023 62,094 72 Jobs 114,636 127,302 12,667 49,565 50,800 1,235 10 Year Past Growth (excluding UPC) (600 dpa in SoT) (329 dpa in NuL) Population 250,227 277,059 26,832 125,239 137,752 12,513 Households 107,944 122,938 14,994 53,167 61,454 8,287 Dwellings 112,249 127,841 15,592 54,831 63,378 8,547

76 Turley Associates (2015)

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Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013 2039 Change 2013 2039 Change Labour Force 119,412 123,916 4,504 62,023 63,129 1,106 Jobs 114,636 123,655 9,019 49,565 51,646 2,081 Source: Turley (2015)

8.76 Table 8.16 identifies how these projections were translated by NLP into B- Class job growth by applying the rate of growth in the CE job growth projections to the PopGroup job growth projections. For example, as the CE projections for Newcastle-under-Lyme suggested a shift in the balance of jobs over time, with the number of B-Class jobs increasing as a proportion of total jobs from 39.8% in 2013 to 42.7% in 2039, this has been applied to the PopGroup total job growth projections.

Table 8.16 Forecast Job Growth using Labour Supply Projections (2013-39)

Scenario Total B-class Jobs (2013-39)

SNPP-2012 (452 dpa in SoT, 239 dpa in SoT (452 dpa) -144 NuL) NuL (239 dpa) 1,202

10 Year Past Growth (including UPC) (749 SoT (749 dpa) 2,967 dpa in SoT, 303 dpa in NuL) NuL (303 dpa) 1,987

10 Year Past Growth (excluding UPC) SoT (600 dpa) 1,685 (600 dpa in SoT, 329 dpa in NuL) NuL (329 dpa) 2,349 Source: Turley 2015 / NLP Analysis

8.77 To translate this job growth into employment floorspace requirements, similar assumptions concerning vacancy rates and employment densities as per the econometric demand side forecasting work were applied to the job projections.

8.78 The results are presented in Table 8.17. This indicates that addressing the future employment requirements of local residents would mean a requirement between –59,945 sqm and +41,454 sqm of B-class employment space (net) to 2039 for Stoke-on-Trent. The equivalent figures for Newcastle-under-Lyme range from +66,771 sqm to +111,910 sqm.

Table 8.17 Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme B-Class Net Floorspace Required from Labour Supply Growth Scenarios, 2013-2039

Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-under-Lyme

Use SNPP- PG-10Yr- SNPP- PG-10Yr- PG-10Yr PG-10Yr 2012 (452 X (600 2012 (239 X (329 (749 dpa) (303 dpa) dpa) dpa) dpa) dpa)

Offices (B1a/b) -18,411 -11,569 -14,370 -4,470 -2,936 -2,196

Industrial (B1c/B2) -53,354 -27,006 -37,813 -17,371 -12,545 -10,204

Warehousing (B8) 11,820 80,028 51,989 88,612 113,209 124,311

Total -59,945 41,454 -285 66,771 97,728 111,910 Source: NLP analysis

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Translating Floorspace into Land Requirements

8.79 The next step involves translating floorspace into land requirements for office, industrial and warehousing uses. This has been calculated by applying appropriate plot ratio assumptions to the floorspace estimates. It has been assumed that a gross area of 1 ha is required to develop 4,000 sqm of industrial or warehousing / distribution space (equal to a plot ratio of 40%). This plot ratio is taken from the former ODPM Guidance on ELRs77 and reflects typical development densities for these uses.

8.80 The resulting net land requirements for the 7 labour demand/labour supply scenarios for Stoke-on-Trent are set out in Table 8.18. The net land projections range from -33.29 ha (based on the OE Job Growth) to 83.53 ha (Experian Job Growth).

Table 8.18 Stoke-on-Trent Net Land Requirements by Scenario

Scenario Labour Demand Labour Supply

4. CE 1. Experian 2. Cambridge 3. Oxford 5. SNPP- 6. PG- 7. PG- Use ‘Policy On’ Baseline Econometrics Economics 2012 10Yr-X 10Yr-X Job Job Growth Job Growth Job Growth (452 dpa) (749 dpa) (600 dpa) Growth Offices 5.34 -3.21 -3.89 16.34 -4.60 -2.89 -3.59 (B1a/b) (ha) Industrial -7.65 -7.73 -26.95 -4.45 -13.34 -6.75 -9.45 (B1c/B2) ha Warehousin 85.83 19.77 -2.45 28.23 2.96 20.01 12.98 g (B8) ha TOTAL 83.53 8.83 -33.29 40.12 -14.99 10.36 -0.07 Source: NLP Analysis

8.81 The resulting net land requirements for Newcastle-under-Lyme’s seven equivalent labour demand/labour supply scenarios are set out in Table 8.19. The net land projections range from 16.69 ha (SNPP 239 dpa) to 114.30 ha (Experian Job Growth).

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Table 8.19 Newcastle-under-Lyme Net Land Requirements by Scenario

Scenario Labour Demand Labour Supply

Use 1. Experian 2. Cambridge 3. Oxford 4. ‘Policy 5. SNPP- 6. PG- 7. PG- Baseline Econometrics Economics On’ Job 2012 10Yr-X 10Yr-X Job Growth Job Growth Job Growth Growth (239 dpa) (303 dpa) (329 dpa)

Offices 0.62 2.21 2.28 10.51 -1.12 -0.73 -0.55 (B1a/b) (ha) Industrial 14.14 0.70 -2.51 20.96 -4.34 -3.14 -2.55 (B1c/B2) ha Warehousin 99.54 58.03 17.19 74.26 22.15 28.30 31.08 g (B8) ha TOTAL 114.30 60.94 16.97 105.73 16.69 24.43 27.98 Source: NLP Analysis

Past Rates of Delivery: Scenario 8

8.82 Because they reflect market demand and actual development patterns on the ground, long term completion rates of employment floorspace can inform future land needs. Completions over periods of ten years or more should even out demand fluctuations over a business cycle, and normally provide a reasonable basis for estimating future needs, provided land supply has not been unduly constrained. Whereas job forecasts show growth in net terms, past trend- based assessments take into account development that offsets the redevelopment of employment sites and the recycling of sites.

8.83 This approach assumes that past trends of office and industrial development in both a relatively buoyant and a recessionary economic period would continue unchanged, but may not fully reflect the impacts of future challenges and uncertainties or longer term workplace trends that could reduce future demand for space. Conversely, it may under-estimate future demand if the supply was constrained in the past, for example because of the unavailability of good quality sites or infrastructure/viability factors.

8.84 Data on past completions by B-class sector was provided by STCC and NLBC. Both authorities data covers a 10-year period from 2004/05 to 2013/14 (Figure 8.6 and Figure 8.7). In total, some 111.4 ha of employment land was developed over the past ten years in Stoke-on-Trent, at an average annual rate of 11.14 ha (gross). Around 11% of the take up related to office land; 25% to industrial; 64% to warehousing and the remainder to a mix of B1, B2 and B8 uses.

8.85 However, as noted earlier in this report, the past take up data held by STCC has been challenged recently at the Trentham Lakes Appeal78. The appellants (St Modwens) undertook a detailed analysis of the Council’s past take up evidence which was used to underpin the previous 2011 JELR. In particular, Jones Lang LaSalle, on behalf of St Modwens, challenged the take up of employment land reported by STCC for 2011 and 2012 of 11.98 ha and 14.8

78Appeal Ref: APP/M3455/A/13/2199404

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ha respectively. Having reviewed all the sites listed, the consultants concluded that a revised total of 5.62 ha had actually been delivered (of which 4.07 ha was actually completed in 2010) compared with the Council’s total for the 2 years of 26.78 ha.

8.86 Discrepancies included the duplication of records in multiple years and recording minor extensions as comprising the entire site area, including the existing development. An example of this is the H&R Johnson’s Factory at Valley Works, Ravensdale, where a 1.09 ha extension was recorded as an 8.7 ha release by STCC which was the total area of the existing factory forming the ‘red-edge’ for the planning application.

8.87 With regards to this evidence, the Inspector at the Trentham Lakes Appeal commented as follows: “I acknowledge, however, the appellants’ concerns relating to the latest employment land returns for Stoke-on-Trent. In particular, their assessment indicates that the actual levels of take up of marketed employment development land are much smaller than the total take up, with some errors regarding take up, with reference to the accounting of changes of use and some double counts. Furthermore, at the Inquiry, the appellants highlighted concerns relating to the inclusion of the expansion of the existing business at Johnson Tiles within the employment land return…in my opinion, the evidence before me is not definitive in respect of the future economic development needs of Stoke-on-Trent and in reality probably lies somewhere in between the figures put forward by the appellants and the Council.79”

8.88 As part of this 2015 ELR, STCC has revisited the evidence that was submitted to the Inquiry and this has been reviewed by NLP. Whilst some of the duplication errors referred to in St Modwen’s evidence appears to have been corrected, the data presented in Figure 8.6 remains very high. For example, whilst the revised completions data for years 2011-2012 has reduced from 26.78 ha to 18.45 ha, this is still far in excess of the 5.62 ha referred to by St Modwen’s in their evidence. The scope of this ELR does not extend to a detailed assessment of the B-Class planning applications from 2004/05 onwards that would be necessary in order to fully support/disprove STCC’s figures.

8.89 Given the concerns that remain over the completions data, it is considered that limited weight can be attached to the past take up scenario for Stoke-on-Trent, and it is presented here for comparative purposes only.

79Ibid §26-§27

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Figure 8.6 Stoke-on-Trent Gross Take-Up

Source: STCC / NLP analysis

8.90 In Newcastle-under-Lyme, a total of 73.52 ha of employment land has been developed since 2004/05, at an average annual rate of 7.35 ha. The majority (55%) of this relates to warehousing/distribution land, with just 8% coming forward for industrial land, 5% for office and the remaining 12% for a mix of B- Class uses.

Figure 8.7 Newcastle-under-Lyme Gross Take-Up

35

30

25

20

15

10 GrossCompletions (ha)

5

0 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/08 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

-5 B1a/B1b B1c/B2 B8 Mixed Losses Annual Average Take Up

Source: NLBC / NLP analysis

8.91 In terms of losses, Figure 8.3 indicates that a total of 116 ha of employment land has been lost over the corresponding 10-year period in Stoke-on-Trent at

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a rate of 11.6 ha annually, whereas just 6.65 ha has been lost in total in Newcastle-under-Lyme over the same 10-year period analysed, at a rate of 0.67 ha annually. It is important to note at this point that NLP has been reliant on the quality of the data provided by STCC and NLBC Officers regarding losses. The data appears adequate, although as we have not undertaken a detailed review going back to the original applications it can only be given relatively limited weight.

8.92 Table 8.20 presents both the gross and net annual take-up for the two areas by B-class employment uses. Table 8.21 projects this net rate forward over the 26-year plan period.

8.93 The data suggests that if past trends were to be replicated in future, this could justify the provision of around -11 ha (net) in Stoke-on-Trent and 174 ha (net) in Newcastle-under-Lyme of B-class land.

Table 8.20 Net / Gross Annual Take-Up

Stoke-on-Trent Newcastle-under-Lyme Net Take-Up Gross Take-Up Net Take-Up Gross Take-Up B1a/b 1.14 1.19 0.57 0.685 B1c/B2/B8 -1.57 9.95 6.12 6.665 Total -0.44 11.14 6.69 7.35

Source: STCC / NLBC / NLP analysis

Table 8.21 Net Employment Space Requirements Based on Past Completion Trends, 2013 - 2039

Annual Net Land Total Net Land Requirement Change (ha) (2013-2039) (ha) Offices (B1a/b) 1.14 29.51 Stoke-on-Trent Industrial (B1c/B2/B8) -1.57 -40.88 Total -0.44 -11.38

Offices (B1a/b) 0.57 14.75 Newcastle-under- Industrial (B1c/B2/B8) 6.12 159.12 Lyme Total 6.69 173.87 Source: STCC / NLBC / NLP analysis

Adjustments

Past Take Up Rates

8.94 The previous analysis has assumed that past rates of take up will simply continue at the same level for the remainder of the Plan period. This may or may not continue to be the case. For example, future development rates for industrial space may be lower than has been achieved historically as sectors rationalise and/or makes more efficient use of space. Clearly the recession and prolonged economic downturn has had a significant effect on the viability of development schemes and in this regard Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-

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under-Lyme are no different from the majority of other areas outside London and the Greater South East.

8.95 Whilst the Experian and CE projections suggest a strong growth in office and warehousing jobs in Stoke-on-Trent, conversely the same projections indicate a decline in B1c/B2 industrial floorspace requirements within the City. This suggests that the process of structural change (where older industrial estates make way for more modern facilities) may mean that a step change in B2 employment land delivery is unlikely for the foreseeable future. This is in contrast to Newcastle-under-Lyme, where the same projections suggest that the primary growth will be in in warehousing sectors, with both industrial and office-based jobs projected to increase at a similar, moderate, rate.

8.96 In addition, all of the following suggest that the take up rates may not significantly change in the future: 1 The LEP’s ambition for Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire as a whole to move towards a more service-orientated economy, predominantly based on B Use-Class employment land with significantly higher employment densities (such as the LEP’s ‘barometer sector’ of Business/Professional Services); 2 The continued restructuring of the traditional manufacturing economy with the potential for ‘recycling’ of older sites; 3 The Government’s measures to facilitate the change of use from B1a office to residential without the need for planning permission (albeit this is scheduled to end by 2016); 4 Macro-economic influences concerning the long term impacts of the economic downturn; poor productivity rates; and further cuts to the public sector planned by the Conservative Government; 5 The significant reduction in public sector expenditure available to deliver difficult brownfield sites; and, 6 The need to consider alternative uses for existing B-class sites (i.e. for waste and recycling).

8.97 The caveat remains that whilst Stoke-on-Trent take-up and losses data provides a useful comparator and/or sensitivity check to the econometric and labour supply modelling analysis, the data is not considered to be sufficiently robust to form a basis for calculating the future employment land requirement for the authority..

Converting Net to Gross Requirements - Allowance for Losses

8.98 To convert the net requirement of employment space into a gross requirement (i.e. the amount of employment space or land to be allocated/planned for), an allowance is typically made for some replacement of losses of existing employment space that may be developed for other, non B-Class, uses in future. This allowance ensures that sufficient space is re-provided to account

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for employment space that is anticipated to be lost in future and provides some protection against continued erosion of employment space in either authority.

8.99 Judgements were therefore made on the suitability and degree of the allowance for future losses which it would be appropriate to apply here based on the consultants’ understanding of supply-side deliverability factors in Stoke- on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and current trends in the market. Not all losses need to be replaced as some will reflect restructuring in the local economy, for example as less manufacturing space is needed in future. Consideration has been given to a number of factors and property market dynamics.

8.100 In Stoke-on-Trent, the amount of land lost in recent years has been extremely high. Some losses will reflect restructuring in the local economy, as less space may be needed in some sectors (particularly traditional manufacturing) in future. Given the Experian and CE baseline projections show a long term, and continued, shift in Stoke-on-Trent away from B2 manufacturing floorspace and towards B1 office and B8 warehousing floorspace, this appears to still be the case.

8.101 A number of developers suggested that Stoke-on-Trent’s supply of employment land exceeded current levels of demand, with the City containing a considerable number of older sites less able to meet future needs. Many of these sites are of a scale that reflects past industrial patterns, rather than the amount of land likely to be needed in future.

8.102 In particular, the organic growth of Stoke-on-Trent over the centuries has resulted in a considerable number of smaller industrial estates being surrounded by densely populated residential areas which traditionally provided the local workforce for those factories. Whilst the redevelopment of many of these sites for ongoing industrial/commercial use might have been viable in the years prior to the recession, the new financial climate and the unavailability of finance for riskier investment projects in lower value areas means that a number of these industrial estates will simply not be viable for redevelopment without a higher value end-use such as residential. On this basis, it seems likely that losses will continue at a relatively high level going forward.

8.103 Whether this will be at the very high rates of past losses is debatable however, as stakeholders cited that many of the ‘low hanging fruit’ are starting to be exhausted. For instance, there are few remaining employment sites which do not require extensive remediation work in order to be converted to residential land. On this basis, some of the stakeholders consulted were of the opinion that they did not expect as much employment land to be lost as has been previously.

8.104 Furthermore, whilst there are high vacancy rates in both authority areas, a number of the old industrial units are far more likely to be comprehensively redeveloped for higher value uses such as residential, than to be brought back into use for employment land. Furthermore, many ageing mid-twentieth

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century secondary office units with no parking are simply not re-occupied at all, with firms preferring to relocate to modern out of centre business parks.

8.105 However, even in declining industrial sectors some replacement will inevitably be needed to refresh the quality of the stock and to avoid the employment land supply continually declining.

8.106 As a consequence of this analysis, it has been assumed that only around half of the expected losses should be replaced in Stoke-on-Trent. This judgement is based on a combination of past losses, the latest planning permissions data on potential future losses (which are high – STCC Officers confirmed that in 2013/14, applications relating to change of use from employment land to alternative uses totalling 37.3 ha (net) were approved, whilst the equivalent figure for 2014/15 was 26.35 ha), and the views of stakeholders in the light of continued Government support for the re-use of employment land for residential purposes (recognising that this is not currently a major issue for either district).

8.107 As noted above, in Stoke-on-Trent over the period 2004/05 – 2013/14, some 116 ha of B-class land was lost to non-B-uses at a rate of 11.58 ha annually. Replacing around half of these losses over the 26-year plan period would result in an additional need for 150 ha of land, or 5.79 ha annually.

8.108 Over the period 2004/05 – 2013/14, Newcastle-under-Lyme lost 6.65 ha of B- class land to non-B-uses at a rate of 0.665 ha annually; over the 26 year plan period this equals 17.3 ha. Analysis of NLBC’s latest SHLAA80 suggests that the Borough could lose up to 5.2 ha of existing / allocated employment land to residential uses over the next 15-years or so. Whilst recognising that not all SHLAA sites will ultimately come forward for residential use, this is likely to be counteracted by the fact that a number of windfall employment sites (not identified as potential SHLAA sites) will inevitably come forward for alternative uses over the next 26 years, whilst the SHLAA is also restricted to residential use and does not analyse potential losses to other land uses such as retail and leisure.

8.109 On balance, it is considered that, given the uncertainties involved, it is prudent to plan for a replacement figure approximately halfway between past losses (c.0.66 ha annually) and future losses (c.0.35 ha annually), Consequently, allowance should be made for the replacement of around 0.51 ha of employment land annually in Newcastle-under-Lyme, which would equate to 13.1 ha over the 26-year plan period.

8.110 Table 8.22 presents the suggested annual replacement of losses for both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme. It is suggested that the ‘planned’ rate of losses (5.79 ha for Stoke-on-Trent and 0.51 ha for Newcastle-under- Lyme) represents a reasonable basis to go forward. This should be monitored by STCC and NLBC over the next few years and adjusted as necessary.

80 Newcastle-under-Lyme 2013/14 SHLAA

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Table 8.22 Recommended annual replacement of losses going forward

Future Losses Replacement

Office annual (ha) Industrial annual (ha) Total

Stoke-on-Trent 0.028 5.761 5.789

Newcastle-under-Lyme 0.091 0.415 0.506 Source: NLP analysis

Note: B1 / B2/B8 split indicative for the purposes of the modelling work, based on past trend split

Safety Margin / Flexibility Factor

8.111 To estimate the overall requirement of employment space that should be planned for in allocating sites, and to allow some flexibility of provision, it is usual to add an allowance as a safety margin for factors such as delays in some sites coming forward for development.

8.112 This margin represents a contingency factor, providing a modest additional land buffer so that supply is not too tightly matched to estimated demand, and so that shortages of land do not arise if future demand turns out to be greater than the forecasts. Such flexibility is sensible given the uncertainties in the forecasting process and the scope for delays in developing employment space.

81 8.113 The South East England Planning Partnership Board [SEEPB] Guidance on employment land assessments recommended an allowance that is equivalent to the average time for a site to gain planning permission and be developed, typically about two years.

8.114 For Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, on the basis of the gross completions82 analysis set out in Scenario 8 (and notwithstanding the caveats that apply to the reliability of Stoke-on-Trent’s data in particular), Table 8.23 sets out the following safety margins for B Class uses. This indicates that some 10.7 ha would need to be added on to the requirements for Stoke-on- Trent over the 26-year plan period, and 14.39 ha for Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Table 8.23 Safety Margin

Gross Average Annual Completions 2-year Safety Margin Added B1a/b Office B1c/B2/B8 Total (ha) B1a/b Office Total (ha) B1c/B2/B8 (ha) (ha) (ha) (ha) Stoke-on- 1.163 4.189 5.352 2.326 8.378 10.703 Trent Newcastle- 0.568 6.710 7.278 1.136 13.070 14.386 under-Lyme Source: STCC / NLBC / NLP analysis

81 SEEPB Economic and Employment Land Assessments Supplementary Guidance Consultation Document, 2009. Although the SEEPB no longer exists and the formal status of this guidance is not established, it is considered to be a source of good practice. 82 The standard approach is to use gross take-up figures for this purpose.

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Summary

8.115 The results of the scenario modelling for the eight sets of projections, including an allowance for a margin of choice and the replacement of losses, are summarised in Table 8.24 (Stoke-on-Trent) and Table 8.25 (Newcastle-under- Lyme).

Table 8.24 Stoke-on-Trent Gross Employment Land Comparisons 2013-2039 (ha)

Office Industrial STOKE-ON-TRENT B1a/b B1c/B2 B8

2013-2039 (net) 5.34 -7.65 85.83 1) Labour Demand: 2013-2039 (gross) 234.05 Experian + Flexibility factor 244.75 2013-2039 (net) -3.21 -7.73 19.77 2) Labour Demand: CE 2013-2039 (gross) 159.36 + Flexibility factor 170.06 2013-2039 (net) -3.89 -26.95 -2.45 3) Labour Demand: OE 2013-2039 (gross) 117.23 + Flexibility factor 127.93 2013-2039 (net) 16.34 -4.45 28.23 4) Labour Demand: CE 2013-2039 (gross) 190.65 ‘Policy On’ + Flexibility factor 201.34 2013-2039 (net) -4.60 -13.34 2.96 5) Labour Supply: 452 2013-2039 (gross) 135.54 dpa [SNPP-2012] + Flexibility factor 146.24 2013-2039 (net) -2.89 -6.75 20.01 6) Labour Supply: 749 2013-2039 (gross) 161.89 dpa [PG-10Yr] + Flexibility factor 171.59 2013-2039 (net) -3.59 -6.75 20.01 7) Labour Supply: 600 2013-2039 (gross) 150.45 dpa [PG-10Yr-X] + Flexibility factor 161.15 2013-2039 (net) 29.51 -40.87 8) Past Completions 2013-2039 (gross) 139.14 + Flexibility factor 149.85

Source: NLP analysis

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Table 8.25 Newcastle-under-Lyme Gross Employment Land Comparisons 2013-2039 (ha)

Office Industrial NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME B1a/b B1c/B2 B8

2013-2039 (net) 0.62 14.14 99.54 1) Labour Demand: 2013-2039 (gross) 127.45 Experian + Flexibility factor 141.83 2013-2039 (net) 2.21 0.70 58.03 2) Labour Demand: CE 2013-2039 (gross) 74.09 + Flexibility factor 88.47 2013-2039 (net) 2.28 -2.51 17.19 3) Labour Demand: OE 2013-2039 (gross) 30.12 + Flexibility factor 44.50 2013-2039 (net) 10.51 20.96 74.26 4) Labour Demand: CE 2013-2039 (gross) 118.87 ‘Policy On’ + Flexibility factor 133.26 2013-2039 (net) -1.12 -4.34 22.15 5) Labour Supply: 239 2013-2039 (gross) 29.84 dpa [SNPP-2012] + Flexibility factor 44.23 2013-2039 (net) -0.73 -3.14 28.30 6) Labour Supply: 303 2013-2039 (gross) 37.58 dpa [PG-10Yr] + Flexibility factor 51.97 2013-2039 (net) -0.55 -2.55 31.08 7) Labour Supply: 329 2013-2039 (gross) 41.13 dpa [PG-10Yr-X] + Flexibility factor 55.51 2013-2039 (net) 10.33 171.42 8) Past Completions 2013-2039 (gross) 187.02 + Flexibility factor 201.40

Source: NLP analysis

8.116 In summary, the demand-led, supply led and past-completions range of indicative total gross land requirements over the plan period 2013 to 2039, factoring in a 2-year margin of choice, results in the following range of demand projections in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme:

 128 – 245 ha of office and industrial land for Stoke-on-Trent ;

 44 – 201 ha of office and industrial land for Newcastle-under-Lyme

Sensitivity Testing

8.117 Clearly the levels of future demand for B-use class land projected by the various employment-based projections differ significantly. The projections are largely trend-based; in particular, the rate of past completions has been (at least partly) recorded during an unprecedented recession in the commercial

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market nationally. It is likely that the actual performance of the Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme economy and commercial property market will lie somewhere between the lower labour demand scenarios and the higher labour demand projections.

8.118 In order to provide a clearer steer as to what level of growth the two local authority areas should be planning for, it is important to apply reality checks.

Adjustments to Plot Ratios

8.119 The estimates of land requirements are clearly highly sensitive to the various assumptions used. The job / floorspace ratios and plot ratios adopted here reflected those in the former ODPM guidance.83 At present, it is assumed that the plot ratio84 of 40% is generally applied to industrial space and warehousing.

8.120 If a lower level were applied to all types of employment land of, say, 30%, this would make a fairly significant difference to the overall gross requirement, resulting in between -9% decrease and a 11% increase in the gross requirements for Stoke-on-Trent (with the Experian Job Growth Scenario seeing the highest rate of change and the OE Labour Demand seeing a negative rate of change), and between 13% (OE Job Growth) and 27% (Experian) for Newcastle-under-Lyme.

8.121 However, given that both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme are seeking to move away from a more traditional industrial economy and towards an economy focused more towards the service sector (albeit recognising that advanced manufacturing sectors will have a very important part to play in the area’s future) which tend to have higher plot densities, and with the Framework’s requirement for office space to be located in town centres rather than out of centre, this could point to plot densities increasing, rather than decreasing in future. On this basis, it is considered reasonable to assume that the majority of future development in both authorities will be at plot ratios closer to 40% than 30%.

No Allowance for Vacant Units

8.122 As noted above, an allowance has been made in the modelling work to bring the total stock of commercial and industrial floorspace into balance. At present, the stock of office and industrial floorspace that is currently vacant in both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme far exceeds what might be considered a ‘reasonable’ level of vacancy necessary to ensure the smooth functioning of the market (at around 10%). As such, NLP’s model seeks to avoid over-providing floorspace in the future which could have the effect of exacerbating current vacancy levels. Hence an adjustment is made to bring the likely future vacancy figure back down to around 10%. This has the effect

83 Employment Land Reviews Guidance Note, ODPM (2004) 84 A plot ratio is the total building square meterage (building area) divided by the site size square meterage (area of the plot). Therefore, a plot ratio of 150% would indicate that the total floor area of a building is 1.5 times the gross area of the plot on which it is constructed. For practical purposes, this would equate to a 3 storey building with fifty percent plot coverage, the remaining plot area being occupied, for example, by access roads, parking and landscaping.

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of reducing the amount of land that is required for all of the 8 scenarios however.

8.123 As a sensitivity to this, NLP ran the models again, but this time excluded any additional allowance for vacancy levels. This had the effect of increasing the amount of employment land required under all of the scenarios, from 18 ha (OE) to 49 ha (CE Policy On job growth) in Stoke-on-Trent, and between 4 ha (Experian) and 10 ha (OE job growth) in Newcastle-under-Lyme.

8.124 In general, whilst the sensitivity testing demonstrates that an increase in the total amount of employment land could be justified in both localities were a different assumption to be taken in the modelling concerning vacancy levels, in general, NLP considers the approach taken to be justified. There is a danger that over-providing floorspace in areas which already have a surplus of land will only serve to exacerbate the mismatch between supply and demand, driving down rental levels and making development less viable overall.

Adjustments to the Margin of Choice

8.125 Another significant assumption in terms of sensitivity testing is the 2-year safety margin added. A 2-year margin of choice may ordinarily be seen as being reasonable, particularly in the light of uncertainties in the commercial property market and the need to provide market ready sites to prevent occupiers from moving beyond the authority areas when searching for appropriate sites. Hence an increased margin of choice would help to provide a balanced portfolio.

8.126 It should also be noted that the UK is currently witnessing an economic recovery, which is likely to continue in the coming years. The consequence of this may be increased demand for employment land beyond that projected by the various scenarios.

8.127 In summary, it is suggested that the approach taken in defining a two-year margin of choice remains valid.

Conclusions

8.128 In interpreting the outputs of this section, regard should be had to the Practice Guidance which states that local authorities should develop an idea of future economic needs based on a range of data and forecasts of quantitative and qualitative need. In this respect, planning for employment growth should avoid relying on single sources of data or projections which tend to rely upon a number of different variables which are inevitably subject to change. It is for this reason that STCC and NLBC required NLP to model three sets of econometric projections from respected independent data providers.

8.129 It is also important to recognise that there are inevitably uncertainties associated with modelling assumptions under any of the future growth scenarios considered. In particular, there are some inherent limitations to the use of local level employment forecasts generally and also where there may be

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data anomalies in the source data used to build the forecasts (which then have the potential to become exacerbated over time). In addition, it should be noted that economic forecasts do not take into account market shocks, and because they are regularly updated the resulting employment outputs will change across the STCC and NLBC plan periods.

8.130 Eight different scenarios of future employment space requirements were considered, based on a number of approaches which reflect economic growth (Experian, CE, OE and CE ‘Policy On’), past development trends and potential labour supply scenarios (using three different dwelling requirements from the SHMA). The results are summarised in Figure 8.8 and Figure 8.9.

Figure 8.8 Stoke-on-Trent Modelling Scenarios – Gross Employment Land Requirements 2013-39

Source: NLP analysis

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Figure 8.9 Newcastle-under-Lyme Modelling Scenarios – Gross Employment Land Requirements 2013-39

250

200

150

Class Class Land(ha) - B 100

50

0 Experian Cambridge Oxford Policy On Labour SupplyLabour SupplyLabour Supply Past Take Up Baseline Econometrics Economics 239 dpa 303 dpa 329 dpa Rates

Net Gross Gross + Flexibility Factor

Source: NLP analysis

8.131 In summary, Stoke-on-Trent’s projections range from 128 – 245 ha of office and industrial land, whilst Newcastle-under-Lyme’s range is between 44 ha and 201 ha over the 26-year period 2013 to 2039.

8.132 By way of comparison, the July 2011 JELR for the two authorities concluded that a requirement of 230 ha was suitable for Stoke-on-Trent, and 150 ha for Newcastle-under-Lyme, albeit over a much shorter assessment period of 16 years to 2026.

8.133 Given the uncertain economic outlook, it is difficult to select the most likely option from these alternative growth pictures and all eight scenarios have been tested against the two authorities’ supply position. Scenario 8, based on past take up rates continuing, provides a less robust basis for understanding objectively assessed need arising from economic growth as past take up rates are likely to have been distorted by the recent economic downturn and, in the case of Stoke-on-Trent, the very high levels of past losses to non B-Class uses. The uncertainties over the reliability of the completions and losses data made available by STCC almost means that only very limited weight can be taken of this scenario, for Stoke-on-Trent at least.

8.134 In contrast, the econometric modelling scenarios are based on the most up-to- date demographic and macro-economic assumptions and therefore provide the most objective assessment of needs. That said, there are concerns regarding the very wide range of projections produced by Experian, CE and OE, with Experian, in particular, forecasting some very strong levels of growth in sectors such as Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation; Transport & Storage;

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and Professional & Other Private Services which has resulted in a level of growth for Stoke-on-Trent in particular that seems significantly out of kilter with the other two scenarios. By way of contrast, the OE projections seem somewhat on the pessimistic side, with overall job growth across the two districts less than half the CE projections, and less than a quarter of the jobs projected by Experian.

8.135 Furthermore, the Experian projections only provide detailed job projections to 2031 (with NLP pro-rata’ing the data to 2039), whilst the OE projections only provide a sector breakdown across 19 industrial sectors, compared to 38 for Experian and 45 for CE.

8.136 As noted above, it is considered that in the case of these two local authorities, greater weight should be attached to the Cambridge Econometrics projections, given that they represent a positive, but nevertheless realistic, uplift on past trends, whilst growth appears more evenly spread across the various sectors. They represent the most detailed projections provided and have been used by both the LEP and to inform the Councils’ joint SHMA, resulting in greater alignment with both the wider economic growth aspirations of the LEP and the housing OAN.

8.137 The 170 ha and 88 ha projected under the CE model for Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme respectively would also sit towards the top end of the equivalent labour supply projections for Stoke-on-Trent (ranging from 146 ha to 171 ha), and above the equivalent labour supply range (44 ha to 56 ha) for Newcastle-under-Lyme.

8.138 On this basis, it is considered that for Stoke-on-Trent, a suitable range of between 146 ha and 201 ha (gross) of employment land may be considered appropriate to 2039. This is approximate to the lowest (452 dpa) Labour Supply scenario at the lower end, and the (more aspirational) Policy On CE projection at the top end. It encompasses all of the labour supply scenarios, the CE Labour Demand and Policy On projections.

8.139 For Newcastle-under-Lyme, a suitable range of between 44 ha and 135 ha (gross) of employment land may be considered appropriate to 2039. This is approximate to the lowest (239 dpa) Labour Supply scenario at the lower end, and the CE Policy On projection at the top end. It also encompasses the CE Labour Demand projection.

8.140 It should be noted that if either STCC or NLBC sought to accommodate new developments of large-scale warehousing schemes, then this could necessitate higher levels of provision well above the current land portfolio.

Split between B1/B2/B8

8.141 In terms of how the 146-201 ha range for Stoke-on-Trent could be split between the B1a/ B1b, B1c/B2 and B8 uses, it is not possible to directly translate the split into gross requirements, as the data is not sufficiently robust to enable a precise breakdown of land lost/margin of choice by use type.

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8.142 Furthermore, there are a number of conflicting considerations: Based on the current ‘stock’ of floorspace in Stoke-on-Trent, there is a considerable supply of industrial/warehousing units, comprising 70% of all floorspace in the City, compared to 7% for B1a office, with the remainder comprising other employment floorspace including retail85; The Experian and CE growth forecasts indicate very strong growth in B8 warehousing; a more modest growth in B1a/b office requirements; and a decline in demand for B2 industrial. The policy on forecast suggests higher growth in B1a/b office floorspace, a slightly higher growth in B8 floorspace and a lower decline in B2 land requirements. The OE projections suggest a decline for all three types of floorspace, with B2 the most pronounced; Past completions have been dominated by B8 developments, with 72 ha coming forward between 2004/05 and 2013/14, followed by B1c/B2 at 28 ha and B1a/b office at just 12 ha over that 10-year time period. However, a very high level of past losses has also taken place on former B2/B8 industrial/warehousing land, with virtually all of past losses coming from the B2/B8 industrial/warehousing sector, rather than B1a office space; From a qualitative perspective, agents consider there to be a gap in supply for modern industrial units particularly in the 200 sqm to 2,500 sqm size bracket. It is understood that there is also strong demand for workshop units in Stoke-on-Trent generally. Demand for warehousing units is currently perceived to be strong and is likely to continue, placing additional pressure on the reducing levels of modern existing stock in well located areas; and In contrast, the office market historically has been driven by local companies expanding and relocating, with very little inward investment seen. Over the last 25 years there has been significant out-of-town office development, although the development of new office accommodation has been badly affected by the economic downturn. Whilst it is showing some signs of improvement, the commercial market has not recovered to the same extent as the industrial sector and therefore rental levels and occupier demand are still below levels achieved prior to the recession. The relocation of Bet365 and Stoke City Council from their existing offices will release a significant amount of additional, good quality second hand supply into the market, which may take some time for the market to absorb.

8.143 On the basis of the points above, it is considered that an indicative split of 25% for B1a/B1b office, 75% for B1c/B2/B8 industrial and warehousing land could be appropriate.

8.144 This seeks to balance: the replacement of some existing industrial stock with aspirations for heightened demand in this sector going forward; the positive growth in office requirements alongside economic aspirations for this sector;

85 VOA: Business Floorspace Statistics (2012)

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the release of substantial amounts of office floorspace in the City in the near future; the reduction in the decline of the industrial sector and the demand for B8 warehousing (recognising that this land hungry sector requires a disproportionate amount of land relative to employment generated).

8.145 In terms of how the 44-133 ha range for Newcastle-under-Lyme could be split between the B1a/ B1b, B1c/B2 and B8 uses, as with Stoke-on-Trent it is not possible to directly translate the split into gross requirements, as the data is not sufficiently robust to enable a precise breakdown of land lost/margin of choice by use type. Again, there are a number of conflicting considerations: Based on the current ‘stock’ of floorspace in Newcastle-under-Lyme, there is a considerable supply of industrial/warehousing units, comprising 70% of all floorspace in the Borough, compared to 8% for B1a office, with the remainder comprising other employment floorspace including retail86; The Experian, CE and OE growth forecasts all indicate very strong growth in B8 warehousing; a minimal growth in B1a/b office requirements; and either a modest or neutral/slightly negative demand for B2 industrial. The policy on forecast suggests higher growth in B1a/b office floorspace, a higher growth in B2 floorspace and no change to B8 warehousing requirements; Past completions have been dominated by B8 developments, with 48 ha coming forward between 2004/05 and 2013/14, followed by mixed B2/B8 at 11 ha, B1c/B2 at 8 ha, and finally B1a/b office at just under 6 ha over that 10-year time period; From a qualitative perspective, vacancy levels in Newcastle have reduced significantly over the last few years and there are a variety of requirements for industrial units below 2,500 sqm focusing on the established employment areas. As in Stoke-on-Trent, there is a strong demand for workshop units with no developers currently building for this market. Going forward agents considered that further land is required within Newcastle-under-Lyme to accommodate new industrial development of varying sizes; and, As with Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme has never been perceived by the market to be a major office location, with the demand for office space stemming predominantly from local firms who tend to have modest requirements. There is a modest need for small scale office development subject to the office occupier market showing further signs of improvement.

8.146 As with Stoke-on-Trent, and on the basis of the points considered above, it is considered that an indicative split of 25% for B1a/B1b office, 75% for B1c/B2/B8 industrial and warehousing land could be appropriate.

8.147 Again, this seeks to balance: the replacement of some existing industrial stock with aspirations for heightened demand in this sector going forward; the

86 VOA: Business Floorspace Statistics (2012)

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positive growth in office requirements alongside economic aspirations for this sector; the reduction in the decline of the industrial sector and the demand for B8 warehousing (recognising that this land hungry sector requires a disproportionate amount of land relative to employment generated).

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9.0 Demand/Supply Balance

Introduction

9.1 This section draws together the forecasts of future employment land needs (in Section 8.0), the estimates of land available within the area’s existing and allocated employment sites (in Section 7.0) and feedback from engagement with stakeholders (in Section 6.0 and Appendix 1) to identify any need for more employment space, or alternatively surpluses of it, in both quantitative and qualitative terms.

Quantitative Balance

9.2 The previous section identified a requirement for between and 146 and 201 ha of employment space in Stoke-on-Trent up to 2039, and between 44 ha and 133 ha of employment space in Newcastle-under-Lyme, including a modest safety margin largely to allow for delays in sites coming forward for development. This reflects a wide variation in the level of growth that could be supported by the Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme economy over the plan period.

Pipeline Supply

9.3 The detailed site surveys discussed in Section 7.0 and Appendix 6 provide a snapshot of the current available employment land within the Study area. This section compares actual levels of available land with anticipated requirements to understand the extent to which new allocations may be required.

9.4 In terms of how the employment land requirements relate to the current employment land portfolio, various factors make any such quantitative analysis an inexact science. On the supply side of the equation the total amount of land available at any given point is time is indeterminate. The exact amount depends upon: 1 The size of private reserves (i.e. industrial land held with existing buildings for expansion). These are normally excluded from the analysis as they are not generally available for development; 2 The number of windfall sites arising which are not presently allocated for employment uses, but which may become available for such uses; 3 The number of further sites becoming available through the recycling of land currently in industrial use.

9.5 Bearing these points in mind, and as set out in Section 7.0, the detailed site surveys provide a snapshot of the current available employment land across the two authorities. This comprises: 1 Sites allocated for employment development in the Local Plan that remain undeveloped (only in respect of Newcastle-under-Lyme);

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2 Vacant land within existing employment sites; and, 3 Other sites with extant planning permission for B Class uses.

9.6 In Stoke-on-Trent, the existing space available to help meet future needs is estimated to comprise 110.18 ha (net), whilst in Newcastle-under-Lyme the supply is 77.47ha (net). This produces a combined figure of 187.65ha (net), as set out Table 9.187.

Table 9.1 Existing Supply of Employment Land within Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme (ha)

Available Employment Space (ha) (net) Source Newcastle- Stoke-on-Trent Total under-Lyme

Local Plan Allocations 0 66.86 66.86

Vacant Land within Existing 55.51 2.40 57.91 Employment Sites Sites with Extant Planning Permission 54.71 8.21 62.92 for B-Class Development

Total 110.18 77.47 187.65

Source: STCC / NLBC / NLP analysis

Note: Numerical errors may occur due to rounding

9.7 The 2011 JELR concluded that there was a total gross supply of 300.06 ha in Stoke-on-Trent and 135.46 ha in Newcastle-under-Lyme. Whilst the difference between these sets of figures initially seems very high (particularly for Stoke- on-Trent), it should be noted that: 1 The number and make-up of sites assessed as part of this ELR are not identical to the sites assessed as part of the 2011 JELR; 2 An estimate has been made of the likely net developable area of each of the sites, as opposed to using gross sites areas (the approach taken by the 2011 JELR). By estimating the net area this provides a more accurate representation of the genuine supply of employment land that may be developed, which by its very nature is significantly smaller than equivalent gross estimates; and, 3 Both local authorities have a number of sites which were previously used for employment purposes but have subsequently been cleared (possibly with a view to redeveloping the site or to avoid paying empty rates) and today remain vacant. Where it is known that these sites have been vacant for a minimum of ten years, they have not been counted as part of the current stock of employment land.

9.8 As noted in Section 7.0, STCC requested that NLP assess 49 of these committed employment sites, which comprised the vast majority of the pipeline supply (105.08ha, or 95% of the total). Of these 49 sites, 3 scored ‘very good’; 22 scored ‘good’; 22 scored ‘average’; 1 scored ‘poor’ and 1 scored ‘very

87 These figures exclude land within the ‘Call for Sites’ submissions and other vacant land, which are considered later in this section.

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poor’.. Similarly for Newcastle-under-Lyme, NLP was asked to assess 17 committed employment sites, covering 76.97 ha net (99.4% of the total 77.47ha committed supply). Of these 17 existing employment sites, 5 were ranked ‘good’; 11 sites were ranked as ‘average’; and 1 site ranked as ‘poor’ in terms of quality.

9.9 In terms of whether the current employment land portfolio is suitable for either authority going forward to 2039, reference is made to the Framework, which states that: “Planning policies should avoid the long term protection of site allocated for employment use where there is no reasonable prospect of a site being used for that purpose. Land allocations should be regularly reviewed. Where there is no reasonable prospect of a site being used for the allocated employment use, applications for alternative uses of land or buildings should be treated on their merits having regard to market signals and the relative need for different land uses to support sustainable local communities” [§22].

9.10 As required by the Practice Guidance, we have identified a number of sites across the two authorities which may no longer be suitable for employment purposes going forward and could therefore be allocated for alternative uses. This judgement is not based solely on the grade given to a particular site but is informed by a rounded consideration of factors set out in paragraph 018 of the Practice Guidance88 including: 1 The suitability of the site in accordance with the development plan, emerging plan policy and national policy; 2 Market and industry requirements in the FEMA; 3 Physical limitations or problems such as access, infrastructure, ground conditions, flood risk, hazardous risks, pollution or contamination (as far as is practicable given the limited scope of this ELR and based on the information provided to NLP by STCC and NLBC Officers); 4 Potential impacts including the effect upon landscapes including landscape features, nature and heritage conservation; 5 Appropriateness and likely market attractiveness for the type of development proposed; 6 Contribution to regeneration priority areas in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme; and, 7 Environmental/amenity impacts experienced by would be occupiers and neighbouring areas.

9.11 Notwithstanding the advice contained in the Framework, it is also appropriate to acknowledge that the UK entered a recession in 2008 which lasted for five quarters and resulted in a substantial decline in manufacturing output. Local Authority data on completion figures confirms that the onset of the recession subdued the development of employment land within both authorities and this figure has remained low ever since.

88 ID: 3-018-20140306

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9.12 It appears that Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme have taken somewhat longer to recover from the recession than many other areas across the country and only now, in 2015, is the market showing sustained signs of recovery with new build development taking place in North Staffordshire once again. Consequently, it is necessary to adopt a judicious approach when considering sites for de-allocation and to recognise that the lack of activity on any given site over recent years does not necessarily indicate that it is unattractive to the commercial property market at present, or will remain unattractive for the duration of the Plan period.

9.13 It should also be noted that the site assessments have not been informed by detailed site investigation work or site ownership information (other than where this has been provided by the client). In addition, viability analysis has not been undertaken.

9.14 Recommendations on those existing employment sites which are perhaps best suited to de-allocation/release to non B-Class uses/mixed-use with a small element of employment are set out below. However, it is ultimately for the local authorities to consider how these sites align with their vision and objectives for their area through the proper Local Plan formulation process: Stoke-on-Trent: Vacant Land within Existing Employment Sites: 1 Former Brownhills Tileries, Harewood Street, Tunstall (ref: ST32), 12.58ha (net) - A marginal market location with poor access to the strategic road network and weak market interest, possibly due to historic landfill at the site that may require further remediation. Sensitive residential properties also border the site. 2 Land off New Century Street, Hanley (Ref: ST44), 0 ha (net) – An irregular-shaped site which forms part of Fuchs Lubricants manufacturing plant. It is surrounded by a mix of uses (including housing to the northern boundary) albeit little office accommodation. Virtually the entire site falls within a coalfield high risk area and therefore remediation is likely to be necessary. However, as the site has good access to the strategic road network, public transport, labour and services, it may be suitable for a mixed-use scheme incorporating an element of employment development.. 3 Garth Street, Hanley (Ref: ST53), 1.43 ha (net) – The site is constrained by fragmented land ownership, which dampens the market attractiveness of this site and would act as a barrier to development in this location. 4 Chatterley Whitfield (Ref: ST56), 0 ha (net) –The majority of buildings on the site are in a poor state of repair. Significant refurbishment would be required for this site to become viable and it is anticipated that the likely costs associated with rectifying these issues, combined with the complexity of the scheduled ancient monument/listed building status of part of the site, would be prohibitive.

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5 East and West Precincts, Hanley (Ref: ST54), 0 ha (net) – The site, together with surrounding streets, is earmarked for redevelopment to provide a major, retail-led mixed-use scheme including 4,300 sqm of office space. The site is in single ownership and forms a key part of the City Centre. With no known developmental or environmental constraints, it appears there is nothing preventing this scheme from coming forward, making it highly unlikely this site, in its entirety, could come forward for employment development. Stoke-on-Trent: Sites with Extant Planning Permission for B-Class Uses 6 Westport Road/Hall Street/Pack Horse Lane, Burslem (Ref: ST30), 0.47 ha (net) – A predominantly cleared site in an area where the demand for office accommodation is unproven and development is constrained by a nearby Grade II listed church and conservation area. However, the site could possibly deliver an element of employment development as part of a mixed use scheme.

Newcastle-under-Lyme: Vacant Land within Existing Employment Sites 1 Pepper St, Keele (Ref: NL34), 0.35 ha (net) – Situated in an isolated location within the Green Belt, the site contains disused, dilapidated buildings, is constrained by poor access to labour and is some distance from the strategic road network. Newcastle-under-Lyme: Sites with Extant Planning Permission for B-Class Uses 2 Land off Linley Road, Kidsgrove (Ref: NL38), 2.59 ha (net) – The site suffers from poor access in a location where market demand for commercial development is relatively weak. Whilst the site has extant planning permission for mixed use development (including B1/B2/B8), it is recommended that the site be considered for alternatives uses if the permission lapses. 3 Heathcote Street, Chesterton (Ref: NL12), 0.41 ha (net) - Cleared site in mixed-use area with good access to labour and public transport although there is pressure to provide additional housing in this area and local demand for employment space appears to be satisfied.

9.15 If the sites listed above were to be removed from the existing stock of employment land, the total level of B-Class employment land in Stoke-on-Trent would decrease from 110.18 ha to 95.58 ha (net) and from 76.9 7ha to 74.02 ha (net) in Newcastle-under-Lyme.

A broad comparison of estimated demand for B-Class space against the identified supply (assuming the sites listed above are removed from the current stock of employment land) is shown in Table 9.2. This indicates that Newcastle-under-Lyme would have sufficient employment space in quantitative terms up to 2039 to meet the needs arising from four of its eight scenarios of

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future requirements whereas Stoke-on-Trent would have a shortfall of employment land in all eight of its future requirements.

Table 9.2 Demand/Supply of B Class Employment Space in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme (to 2039)

Demand/Supply Balance (Ha)

Stoke-on-Trent

Requirement for B Class Space (ha) 146 - 201

Existing Supply of Employment Space (net) (ha) 96

Surplus (+)/Shortfall (-) (ha) Between –50 and -105

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Requirement for B Class Space (ha) 44 - 133

Existing Supply of Employment Space (net) (ha) 74

Surplus (+)/Shortfall (-) (ha) Between +30 and -59-

Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme

Requirement for B Class Space (ha) 190 - 334

Existing Supply of Employment Space (net) (ha) 170

Surplus (+)/Shortfall (-) (ha) Between -20 and -164

9.16 This demand/supply analysis assumes that both authorities’ undeveloped employment allocations come forward in full for employment development over the plan period. Any significant deviation from this assumption could have an impact upon the overall balance, for example by tightening the existing surplus of employment space or resulting in an increase in the shortfall under some of the more optimistic scenarios.

9.17 In purely quantitative terms therefore, this suggests that the identified pipeline supply, as it stands currently, could provide sufficient employment land to meet Newcastle-under-Lyme’s employment development needs to 2039, if a lower OAN figure was pursued. However, this is not the case in Stoke-on-Trent, nor when the two areas are taken together as a whole.

Qualitative Factors

9.18 Even where no quantitative shortfall of employment space is identified, in some circumstances additional land may be needed for qualitative reasons, in order to: 1 Improve the choice of provision for occupiers; 2 Meet gaps in the supply of particular types of premises;

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3 Improve or modernise the quality of current provision and so help attract more occupiers; and/or 4 Provide a better spatial distribution of employment sites to meet the needs of different settlements.

9.19 In addition, consultation with local businesses across the FEMA indicated that over three quarters (78%) of respondents are considering expanding their premises within the next five to ten years, only 40% of which are looking to expand within their current site. For those looking to relocate, 95% are keen to stay within the two authorities although a lack of suitable premises was identified as the main obstacle to expansion. The shortage of suitable premises was also raised as a key issue at the stakeholder workshop, as was the importance of making available sufficient flexible, greenfield sites with good access to the strategic road network.

9.20 Qualitative needs are considered for each broad property type below.

Industrial

9.21 Commercial agents commented that occupier sentiment for prime industrial accommodation across the FEMA appears to be the most positive it has been for many years. However, a significant amount of the current supply of industrial land, particularly in Stoke-on-Trent, comprises early 20th Century brick-built floorspace with low eaves heights and in a deteriorating state of repair. Moving forwards, it is likely that the poorest quality industrial space will continue to be demolished by property owners to avoid business rates and/or promoted through the planning process for higher value uses (notably residential).

9.22 With industrial/warehousing demand currently strong and likely to continue for the foreseeable future, further market improvements as the economy recovers should lead to increased levels of new development taking place as freehold and rental values increase. Vacancy levels have also been modest for some time (at least in the North Staffordshire historical context), preventing the churn, intensification and upgrading of existing sites that would be expected to take place within a normal market environment (i.e. one that faces few land constraints). Remaining built-up space from the previous business cycle has now become fully let and large occupiers are now limited to pre-let opportunities or find themselves having to wait for an existing building to come back onto the market.

9.23 According to local agents there remains an acute shortage of good quality, well located, second-hand industrial accommodation. One agent explained that he is currently representing a firm that would like to stay in the area, but is having so much difficulty in identifying a suitable, good quality second-hand building of c.929 sqm the company is considering the possibility of acquiring equivalent premises in Stafford. There is therefore a risk that an underlying shortage of good quality business accommodation could threaten the study area’s longer

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term ability to attract and retain the business base needed to facilitate continued economic growth.

9.24 Whilst Newcastle-under-Lyme appears to have a large surplus of B-Class employment land, two of these sites [NL5 and NL40] are related to Chatterley Valley and Keele Science Park and will only be filled gradually, and only by specific types of firms (such as medical technology). If these two sites (equating to 52.03ha) are excluded, two of the four growth scenarios generating a surplus in Newcastle-under-Lyme would instead produce a shortfall in employment land. Whilst the need for employment land required by these types of firms will have been factored into the original employment forecasts (Section 8.0) NLBC may wish to consider this issue when deciding upon how much land to allocate/de-allocate.

Offices

9.25 Whilst neither Newcastle-under-Lyme nor Stoke-on-Trent are perceived by the market to be a major office location (particularly in the context of competing areas nearby such as Manchester, Derby, Sheffield or Birmingham), three largely separate sub-markets operate within the area: 1 The dated, poor quality office stock market, which is very much a feature of both Stoke’s City Centre (Hanley) and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s town centre, accommodating smaller, lower value businesses; 2 The out-of-town/edge of centre office market, which predominantly relates to modern high-quality space and includes the provision at Festival Park/Etruria Valley, the Riverside development in Stoke and Lymedale Business Park; and, 3 Keele University Science & Innovation Park, which comprises high calibre B1a/b accommodation and competes both nationally and internationally with other science parks in the wider region.

9.26 Over the next twelve months there is expected to be a significant amount of office space coming onto the market as a result of Stoke City Council and Bet 365 relocations and the failure of the Phones 4U business. Occupier-driven moves to better quality space, as lease end dates or other decision points allow, is likely to leave equivalent volumes of poorer quality, second-hand space on the market with limited prospects of achieving good lettings.

9.27 There is some demand for small office suites and serviced office-type units that are able to offer flexible space and on-site car parking, which many town centre sites struggle to offer. Unlike other larger centres there is not yet an appetite for taking contract parking spaces separately to office space. Office occupiers have become more discerning since the recession and now expect accommodation to be presented to a good standard. It is understood that any poorly presented space performs badly in the North Staffordshire market and remains empty for extended periods.

9.28 Agents underlined the significance that office occupiers attach to the availability of on-site car parking and cited that this was one of the main factors

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behind the success of Festival Park when it was originally brought to market. Although contract spaces are available in Hanley City Centre, the firmly entrenched culture is that office occupiers do not want to pay an additional amount for parking spaces and want easy, convenient parking within their office footprint.

9.29 Traffic congestion in the FEMA is a long standing problem in the area, as it is in many other locations throughout the region. Agents welcomed the fact that a £50m road improvement scheme has recently commenced in Stoke, which will include the widening of the A500 between Etruria and Wolstanton. They anticipate that this programme should alleviate much of the congestion and help improve the image of the area to potential office occupiers.

Potential Employment Sites

9.30 The quantitative analysis therefore concludes that there is a need for new employment land allocations in Stoke-on-Trent, whilst for Newcastle-under- Lyme there remains a stronger argument for additional land on the basis of qualitative concerns over the availability of good quality sites, particularly if the two very large Chatterley Valley / Keele Science Park sites are set to one side.

9.31 Ensuring an adequate choice of types of sites is vital if the needs of different employment sectors are to be met. To address this, an analysis has been made of additional employment sites that have not yet been allocated for employment use but which have been put forward either through the Councils’ Call for Sites Local Plan process or through Officers’ detailed knowledge of the area. In total, 25 such sites in Stoke-on-Trent have been identified and assessed, with a further 26 in Newcastle-under-Lyme.

9.32 It should be noted that given an OAN range has been identified, with different employment land requirements depending upon where on the scale each Council wishes to align with, the decision on how many and which sites to allocate, or choose not to take forward, is ultimately a policy choice for the respective councils.

9.33 Clearly, any site-specific recommendations contained in this document cannot be viewed in isolation. Recommendations will need to be taken forward and tested through the proper preparation of policy by the two local authorities and subject to formal consultation as part of the Local Plan preparation process.

9.34 Of the 51 additional sites that were assessed, 11 sites in Stoke-on-Trent (with a net area of 39.23ha) are considered potentially suitable to be allocated for future employment use. A twelfth site (ref: ST15), which is particularly large, is considered suitable for a significant element of employment development, although it is not possible to quantify how much at the current time. In Newcastle-under-Lyme, 1 site is identified as potentially suitable to be allocated for future employment use.

9.35 These sites are summarised below:

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Stoke-on-Trent 1 North of Cartlich Street (Ref: ST31), 5.55 ha (net) – Located in a mixed-use area (which includes housing and the Newfield Industrial Estate) this site comprises two plots of land and benefits from excellent access links to the strategic road network. It also has good access to public transport, labour and services/amenities. Although it has effectively been an undeveloped employment site for many years, the recent completion of the A527 is likely to enhance the site’s market attractiveness making it a suitable site for B2/B8 development in the short/medium term. 2 Diamond Gimson Works, King St, Fenton (Ref: ST59), 2.68 ha (net) – This prominently located site, situated in a mixed-use area, benefits from good access to the strategic road network, public transport, labour and local services/amenities. Planning permission for a mixed-use development incorporating a hotel and B1/B8 accommodation has now lapsed and the market is currently focussing its attention on sites elsewhere. However, it is considered the site could come forward for B1/B8 development in the short/medium term as the market recovers. 3 Sideway/Radial Park - CFS 14 (Ref: ST11), 3.30 ha (net) – This site comprises two undeveloped plots adjacent to the Radial Park site which is currently being developed for B1c/B2/B8 purposes. The site benefits from good access to the strategic and local road network. Although access to public transport and amenities/services is poor, the substantial attractions of the distribution sheds coming forward elsewhere at Radial Park is expected to generate developer interest in bringing forward these two remaining plots for B1c/B2/B8 purposes in the short/medium term. 4 Meir Depot, Uttoxeter Road, Meir (Ref: ST2), 1.67 ha (net) – This vacant, brownfield site is located in a mixed-use area (close to Meir Industrial Estate) and has good access to the strategic road network, public transport, labour and services/amenities. There are no known developmental or environmental constraints, although the site’s access needs to be improved significantly. Over the short/medium term, it is anticipated that this site would be suitable for B1/B2/B8 development. 5 Land at Junction of Park Hall Road/Anchor Road, Adderly Green (Ref: ST69), 1.40 ha (net) – This greenfield site is located in a prominent position and is surrounded by a mix of uses including a number of industrial units. There are no known developmental or environmental constraints, although to come forward for employment use, the site will require a new vehicular access and determining a suitable location for this could be problematic. Access to the strategic road network and public transport is reasonable. The site is considered suitable for B1c development over the short/medium term. 6 Former Ravensdale Sportsfield, Land off Chemical Lane, Tunstall (Ref: ST37), 6.2 ha (net) – This site is situated in a long-standing employment area in Tunstall and is currently used as a sports field. It benefits from excellent access to the strategic road network (being close

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to the A500/A527 interchange) although local access, via Chemical Lane, is currently very poor. The site also has poor access to labour, amenities, services and public transport and approximately 95% of the site is designated historic landfill and may therefore require remedial work. Notwithstanding these constraints, it is noted that the southern part of this site is identified as a development site within the Ceramic Valley Enterprise Zone, which may provide access to support/funding to help overcome these obstacles. 7 Berryhill Pottery (Ref: ST61), 10.30 ha (net) – This is a vacant brownfield site on Fenton Industrial Estate with excellent access to the strategic road network (the A50) and public transport. The site has reasonable access to labour and the use of the site for employment purposes would be compatible with adjacent uses. Although the site has a history of ground condition problems, it is considered these constraints are not a showstopper to development and could be overcome. 8 Land of Scotia Road (Ref: ST39), 1.37 ha (net) – This site is situated on Scotia Business Park, immediately to the west of some new, high quality light industrial units. The build quality of the adjacent accommodation suggests that there may be a strong market interest in developing further in this general area. Given its location, the site has excellent access to the strategic road network, public transport, labour, and local services and amenities. However, around two-thirds of the site is designated as historic landfill which is likely to require remediation. 9 Mossfield Road – New 8 (Ref: ST63), 5.81 ha (net) – This vacant site is located at the end of Mossfield Road, adjacent to an industrial estate which has been developed for a mix of industrial uses. Although the site is used for recreational purposes, and a small element of it forms part of a nature reserve, it has reasonable access to the strategic road network, labour, services and amenities. 10 Riverside Park, off Campbell Road (Ref: ST21), 0.8 ha (net) - This is a vacant brownfield site situated next to an existing office development, called the Riverside Centre, which comprises six high calibre buildings. The site has excellent access to the strategic road network, local access is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints have been identified. 11 GSH House, Forge Lane (Ref: ST27), 0.15 ha (net) - This is a small, undeveloped, plot located adjacent to a high calibre office building in an established employment area. Local access to the site is unconstrained and access to labour is reasonable. A number of bus stops are in close proximity to the site. 12 Wilson Road, Hanford (Ref: ST15), 69.98 ha (net) 89 – This very large, predominantly greenfield site is located on the south-western outskirts of Stoke-on-Trent. Whilst the site suffers from a number of constraints (including a sloping aspect, proximity to housing to the south and west,

89 As it is not known how much of this site could be brought forward for employment development, NLP has excluded the entire net developable area from the calculations on new sites recommended for allocation for B-Class employment purposes.

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poor local site access and poor access to the strategic road network), the site is located close to Sideway/Radial Park (to the north) and Trentham Lakes South (to the east). Flanked by housing on three sites, it is apparent that residential uses are likely to form a significant component of any future mixed use development. However, it is considered that part of the site (possibly to the north) could come forward for employment purposes (offices and B1c) as part of a masterplan for the wider site which resolves local access constraints. Newcastle-under-Lyme 1 Lymedale Park, Holditch, Chesterton (Ref: NL31), 9.17 ha (net) – Whilst a combination of poor site access and limited market interest will hinder the development of this site in the short term, its location within an established employment area (adjacent to Lymedale Business Park and Lymedale Business Centre) and good strategic road access may well generate interest in the site in the short/medium term for B1/B2/B8 development.

9.36 It should be noted that sites that have been developed for employment purposes but which are currently unoccupied have not been included in this review of potential new allocations, with such sites considered as part of the existing supply. However, these can still contribute to the supply of employment stock in future. Likewise, areas within sites that are currently undergoing redevelopment (such as Sideway/Radial Park within Stoke-on- Trent) have been excluded from the analysis even though in the future this land will contribute to the total available supply of employment land.

9.37 Across both authorities, a total of 16 sites, with a gross site area of 126 ha (90 ha net), have been recommended for mixed-use incorporating an element of employment. This conclusion is based upon an assessment of the surrounding area and whether a site was likely to be able to support employment development in its entirety. Whilst the gross area of these sites has been discounted to an extent (to account for spur roads, landscaping etc… as outlined in ‘Gross to Net Adjustments’ within Appendix 5), at this stage no details are available regarding the proportion of each site that may be viable for B-Class development (as part of a mixed-use scheme). Consequently, no further discount has been applied to the gross site area. As such, it is acknowledged that this net figure of 90 ha is likely to represent an overestimate, and the Councils should remain flexible when considering proposals for these sites.

Conclusions

9.38 The matrix at Appendix 5 identifies site specific recommendations for the committed and potential employment sites in Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme. The resultant portfolio is summarised in Table 9.3 and Table 9.4.

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Table 9.3 Resultant Portfolio of Employment Land (net) in Stoke-on-Trent to 2039

Recommendation Number of Gross Site Net Sites Area (ha) Developable Area (ha) Current Employment Land Portfolio (sites 49 279.90 105.05 assessed by NLP) Retain current Employment Allocations, existing employment sites and sites with extant planning 43 242.14 90.57 permission Recommend for de-allocation / alternative uses 6 37.76 14.48 Other sites with extant planning permission for employment use to be retained (but not assessed as - 5.01 5.01 part of this JELR) Adjusted Employment Land Portfolio - 247.15 95.58 Potential new sites recommend for allocation for 90 12 68.56 39.23 B-Class employment purposes Potential sites not recommended to be taken forward 13 166.24 110.34 FINAL POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT LAND - 315.71 134.81 PORTFOLIO

Source: NLP analysis

9.39 Section 8.0 identified that between 146 ha and 201 ha would be required over the 26-year plan period to 2039 for Stoke-on-Trent. The analysis above recommends that the current portfolio of land be rebalanced to de-allocate around 14 ha of the existing portfolio, leaving around 96 ha (net). This would leave a shortfall of between 50 ha and 105 ha, depending upon where in the employment land OAN range STCC targets in its emerging Local Plan.

9.40 To address this shortfall, a number of sites are identified as having the potential to make a sustainable and viable contribution to the overall employment portfolio, with 11 sites, totalling almost 40 ha (net), recommended for further consideration through the Local Plan process. A twelfth site (Wilson Road, Handford, Ref: ST15) also has the potential to make a reasonable contribution to the future employment land portfolio and could therefore also be considered through the Local Plan process.

9.41 As regards Newcastle-under-Lyme, Section 8.0 identified that between 44 ha and 133 ha would be required over the 26-year plan period to 2039. The analysis above recommends that the current portfolio of land be rebalanced to de-allocate around 3 ha of the existing portfolio, leaving around 74 ha (net). This would leave a range between a quantitative oversupply of 30 ha and a quantitative shortfall of 61 ha, depending upon where in the employment land OAN range NLBC targets through its emerging Local Plan.

90 Wilson Road, Handford (Ref: ST15) has been excluded from the gross and net figures as it is a large site and it is not known how much of it could be brought forward for employment development.

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Table 9.4 Resultant Portfolio of Employment Land (net) in Newcastle-under-Lyme to 2039

Recommendation Number of Gross Site Net Sites Area (ha) Developable Area (ha) Current Employment Land Portfolio (sites 17 127.96 76.97 assessed by NLP) Retain current Employment Allocations, existing employment sites and sites with extant planning 14 124.61 73.62 permission Recommend for de-allocation / alternative uses 3 3.35 3.35 Other sites with extant planning permission for employment use to be retained (but not assessed as - 0.40 0.40 part of this JELR) Adjusted Employment Land Portfolio - 125.01 74.02 Potential new sites recommend for allocation for 1 12.39 11.15 B-Class employment purposes Potential sites not recommended to be taken forward 24 382.87 268.54 FINAL POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT LAND - 137.40 85.17 PORTFOLIO

Source: NLP analysis

9.42 However alongside this, there are a range of qualitative requirements that point to the need for some new land being made available (a point that can equally be made for Stoke-on-Trent). Demand for industrial space remains strong with relatively low levels of vacancy (in the North Staffordshire historical context), and an acute shortage of good quality, well located, second-hand industrial accommodation. Furthermore, the vast majority of the forward land supply relates to just two sites, at Keele Science Park and Chatterley Valley. These will only be filled gradually, and only by specific types of firms (such as medical technology). If these two sites (equating to a gross site area of 52.03 ha (26.65 ha net)) are excluded, the number of modelling scenarios which would result in a quantitative surplus of employment land drop from four to two.

9.43 Given the heavy reliance on just a few sites to meet future employment land requirements, it is recommended that additional, suitable sites are identified as part of the Local Plan preparation process. This would help to spread the risk across the Study area, should issues emerge with the delivery of any of these sites.

9.44 Whilst a strategic Green Belt review is outside the scope of this Study, it may also be appropriate for the emerging Joint Local Plan to consider whether it is necessary to make adjustments to the area’s Green Belt boundary. This would need to explore whether alterations are needed to accommodate future development needs and/or reflect where any particular sites no longer fulfil the purposes of Green Belt designation and could potentially be released for employment development.

9.45 Although many Green Belt sites assessed by this Study do not appear either suitable or attractive for employment uses, it is considered that ‘Land to the south and east of new development site, Keele’ (ref: NL24) is an attractive site which is well positioned to accommodate the future expansion of Keele Science Park (towards the end of the Plan period once Phase 3 is largely

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occupied). Similarly, the western part of site of land at Newstead Trading Estate (ref: ST6) also represents suitable employment site and logical rounding off the urban area without any implications for coalescence. However, as these sites are currently situated within the Green Belt, in accordance with the Framework, it would be inappropriate to recommend them for employment development at the present point in time ahead of a detailed Green Belt assessment.

9.46 A general shortage of readily deliverable industrial sites and high occupancy on some existing sites is preventing the churn and intensification that some of the study area’s stock requires to remain attractive to occupiers. In order to minimise the risk of current allocations / planning permissions not coming forward, and to cater for the needs of indigenous firms across the study area, NLBC should consider allocating additional land for industrial uses that is readily available and located near to strategic routes. This issue also applies to Stoke-on-Trent.

9.47 To address this qualitative shortfall, currently just 1 site totalling around 11 ha (net) is identified as having the potential to make a sustainable and viable contribution to the overall employment portfolio and is recommended for further consideration through the Local Plan process.

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10.0 Overall Conclusions and Policy Implications

10.1 This section draws together overall conclusions and considers appropriate policy approaches in relation to employment space for any future Joint Local Plan review, as well as other measures which may be required to support STCC’s and NLBC’s economic growth objectives.

Overview of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under- Lyme’s Economy

10.2 Stoke-on-Trent comprises Stoke City Centre (in Hanley) and six towns which have all grown and expanded creating the current urban conurbation. Historically, each town had an element of retail within the town centre and a mixture of industrial uses beyond, with one of the most significant historic uses being the pottery and ceramics industry.

10.3 Hanley comprises the principal City Centre and is the focus of a new office-led mixed-use Central Business District branded Smithfield. Employment land is spread across the urban area due to the historic growth and development of the six towns; however, the principal employment areas that have seen recent development are primarily situated along the A500 and A50 corridors. There is limited rural business space within Stoke-on-Trent.

10.4 Inward investment in the industrial sector has been particularly strong for large high bay warehouses, due to the excellent connectivity of the strategic road network, aligned with Stoke-on-Trent having a number of large sites able to accommodate distribution warehouses. Inward investment in the office sector has been more limited, with the majority of activity driven by existing companies relocating and expanding rather than significant inward investment in the area.

10.5 Stoke-on-Trent has a wide variety of industrial stock with older units spread across the urban conurbation. There is an acute shortage of good quality, well-located, second-hand industrial accommodation. Over the last 25 years there has been significant out-of-town office development, with the principal business park being Festival Park, and to a lesser extent Campbell Road and Trentham Lakes. Many local occupiers have moved from traditional town centre locations onto these business parks due to the lack of modern, open plan, office accommodation in the towns, and demand for town centre space remains weak as a consequence.

10.6 Newcastle-under-Lyme’s main industrial and business parks lie to the north of Newcastle town along the A34 corridor, with some smaller industrial estates lying to the west of the town centre at Silverdale. As with Stoke-on-Trent, there is limited business space of any size or volume located in the surrounding rural areas.

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10.7 Access to the strategic road network is excellent due to the road linkages connecting to the M6 and A50 trunk road. The zoning of residential and employment uses are more structured compared to Stoke-on-Trent, where residential sits alongside heavy industry as a legacy of its manufacturing past.

10.8 Inward investment has been strongest in the industrial / warehouse sector with a wide variety of industrial units constructed over the last 20 years. Inward investment in the office sector has been more limited with the majority of development being out of town business park space primarily aimed at the local market.

10.9 Vacancy levels in Newcastle-under-Lyme have reduced significantly over the last few years and there are a variety of requirements for units below 2,500 sqm focusing on the established employment areas including Parkhouse Industrial Estate and Lymedale Business Park to the north of the town. As in Stoke-on-Trent, there is a strong demand for workshop units with no developers currently building for this market. Newcastle-under-Lyme has never been perceived by the market to be a major office location, with the demand for office space stemming predominantly from local firms who tend to have modest requirements.

Functional Economic Market Area

10.10 North Staffordshire’s Functional Economic Market Area [FEMA] is characterised by a range of economic, property and labour market factors and is driven by its geographical location within the wider North Staffordshire/East Cheshire sub region but also its relative proximity to Birmingham and Manchester as a result of excellent rail connections on the West Coast Main Line.

10.11 Strong commuting flows in and out of the two authorities represent a key factor influencing the FEMA, with very strong inter-relationships between Stoke-on- Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme representing the origin and destination of the majority of these flows, alongside Stafford (particularly in terms of out- commuting from Stoke-on-Trent), Staffordshire Moorlands (in both directions to/from Stoke-on-Trent) and Cheshire East (in both directions, and to/from both North Staffordshire authorities). Based on the Practice Guidance’s methodology for defining labour market areas, Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme’s Travel to Work Area comprises the two local authority areas combined, which together comprise the workplace for 80% of Stoke-on-Trent’s and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s resident working population and the residence for 79% of the two authorities’ workers. Both indicators are well above the 75% threshold.

10.12 Stoke-on-Trent remains a net importer of labour, with the 2011 Census reporting that 40,053 residents commute into Stoke-on-Trent daily against 33,945 out-commuters, giving a net total of 6,108 in-commuters. In contrast, Newcastle-under-Lyme is a net exporter of labour, with 21,480 residents

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commuting into the Borough daily (many from Stoke-on-Trent), against 29,538 commuting out, giving a net total of 8,058 out-commuters.

10.13 The two authorities’ commercial property market is relatively localised, and notwithstanding some very large logistics employers, remains heavily reliant on a relatively large base of SMEs and existing occupier churn.

10.14 The North Staffordshire conurbation is located between a number of larger, more established commercial centres such as Manchester, Birmingham, Sheffield, Derby and Nottingham. The area has historically struggled to compete with these other centres for office occupiers in particular. It does, however, benefit from a significant pipeline of land for business development, with the spatial capacity to compete for, and accommodate, larger scale enquiries, including the potential to capture footloose enquiries that may emerge along the strategic road corridors.

10.15 This suggests that from a commercial property market perspective, the FEMA does not currently extend far beyond the boundaries of Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, although there could be an opportunity to broaden this if a strategy was put in place to pro-actively target and attract business requirements from further afield, such as footloose opportunities arising along the wider M6 Corridor.

10.16 Given that the two authorities represent a joint FEMA (a finding that was supported by agents who view the commercial property market as being largely indistinguishable across the two local authority areas), this suggests that employment land in one authority could potentially meet needs in the other. This is a particularly salient point given that on the basis of the quantitative analysis alone, Stoke-on-Trent has an under supply of land, and Newcastle-under-Lyme has an over-supply (albeit, for Newcastle-under-Lyme, this is only in respect of the lower half of the employment land OAN scenarios).

Policy Approaches

10.17 The scenarios considered in Section 8.0 indicate the broad scale and type of growth arising from different approaches to modelling the two authorities’ future employment space needs. To varying degrees, they reflect both indigenous needs arising within North Staffordshire as well as a degree of footloose demand which operates across the FEMA’s boundaries from the wider sub- region.

10.18 In the context of the Framework, the two Councils’ policy approaches should aim to at least fully meet Stoke-on-Trent’s and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s employment space needs so that their economies are not constrained, recognising that developments in adjoining areas will also be a key influence. This is particularly important in the aftermath of a period of economic recession and the Government’s Productivity Plan: ‘Fixing the Foundations’ (2015).

10.19 However, to ensure a flexible and responsive policy framework it will be necessary not just to focus on meeting forecast quantitative requirements

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(which will fluctuate over time), but to think about the qualitative opportunities and risks that flow from particular policies. This might concern how delivery can be prioritised in some locations or for some types of employment uses and how scope can be created for meeting as yet undefined inward investment opportunities. It will also involve protecting legacy employment sites for which there is no longer a productive employment use. This is particularly important in Stoke-on-Trent, where the City’s historical industrial legacy has resulted in a number of outdated manufacturing sites surrounded on all sides by densely populated residential areas unsuited to HGVs and industrial processes.

10.20 Planning for employment land will need to be balanced against pressures from other land uses, as well as other Local Plan objectives such as planned housing growth. In this respect, it is recommended that once the Councils’ SHLAAs are completed (in early 2016), analysis be undertaken to determine the amount of existing/allocated employment land that could potentially be lost to residential uses over the next 15-years or so. This may, in turn, prompt a further review of the Councils’ future employment land supply, depending on the anticipated loss. B-class employment space also competes with non B- class uses, some of which may also generate local economic benefits or have identified needs that the Framework indicates should be supported.

10.21 This requires choices in the Joint Local Plan about which sites to protect or allocate for employment development, or which to consider for mixed use development (either in whole or part). That judgement must ultimately take account of: 1 the local benefits of B-class sectors and the need to maintain a diversified and resilient economy that is open to growth and new economic opportunities as they arise (as envisaged by the Framework); 2 the economic and other outcomes (e.g. labour market) if some sectors become displaced or are otherwise constrained from expanding within this part of North Staffordshire; 3 the need to encourage growth of high quality jobs within Newcastle- under-Lyme Borough to address the disparity between resident employee earnings (high) and workplace earnings (low); 4 the need to upskill Stoke-on-Trent’s labour force to ensure that local residents can make the most of the economic opportunities currently offered by many of the comparatively highly paid jobs located in the City, which are often taken up by in-commuters from elsewhere; 5 the trade-off between seeking more intensive use of the current supply of sites and thereby yielding higher net job creation over time, and identified business needs (as specified in the Framework) which may for some activities or sectors imply a less efficient use of land in order to function effectively; and 6 maintaining a delivery trajectory for employment space with short, medium and longer-term opportunities over the life of the Plan.

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10.22 The emerging Joint Local Plan will need to plan for a choice of sites and locations to meet the needs of particular sectors and occupier needs. Some further commentary on the approach and potential options for providing for the different B-class uses in both authorities is considered below.

Industrial Uses

10.23 Both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme continue to represent a reasonably strong industrial location, reflecting their industrial heritage, proximity to major highway routes, excellent rail links to London (which may be further enhanced by HS2), links with Higher Education providers based in the FEMA and access to a substantial local labour force. Despite these advantages, both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme have taken considerably longer to return to growth following the economic downturn than many other parts of the country and the viability of certain existing brownfield sites remains a major concern going forward.

10.24 Before the recession, demand was particularly strong for industrial premises in Stoke-on-Trent ranging from small unit schemes (200 – 2,000 sqm) up to national distribution centres occupied by a variety of retailers. The ingredients to the success in the big shed sector have been: proximity to the M6 Motorway and links to the M1 Motorway via the A50; availability of large sites able to accommodate big warehouses; and lower land values compared to Birmingham and Manchester enabling developers to offer competitive rents.

10.25 Vacancy rates on modern industrial estates are now at a relatively low level having recovered from much higher void levels during the recession. An improvement in the general economy and occupier confidence coupled with very limited new development since 2008 has enabled most landlords to reduce void levels across a range of sizes and ages of stock.

10.26 Agents report a gap in supply for modern industrial units, particularly in the 200 sqm to 2,500 sqm size bracket suitable for B1c, B2 and B8 uses although there is a continued demand from occupiers across a much broader range of sizes. Demand is focussed principally on sites within close proximity to the A500 and A50 trunk roads.

10.27 In contrast to Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme has a smaller supply of older industrial accommodation with a significant proportion of the current industrial stock being of 1970s construction onwards. Vacancy levels in the Borough have reduced significantly over the last few years and there are a variety of requirements for units below 2,500 sqm focusing on the established employment areas including Parkhouse Industrial Estate and Lymedale Business Park to the north of the town.

10.28 Agents considered that further industrial land is required within Newcastle- under-Lyme to accommodate new development of varying sizes, with specific occupier demand for more employment space along the A34 Corridor benefiting from good access to Newcastle, the A500 and Junction 16 of the

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M6. For the longer term, there was a general view that one or more significant employment sites would be required with good access to the M6.

Office Uses

10.29 The office market in the two authorities is relatively small and indigenous, lacking the critical mass to attract and sustain larger office occupiers, particularly in light of strong competition from nearby established centres. Much of the current supply comprises small modern and second-hand office accommodation and there is a lack of good quality, high specification office premises. Over the last 25 years there has been significant out-of-town office development, with the principal business park being Festival Park in Stoke-on- Trent. There has also been some office development at Campbell Road and Trentham Lakes which has attracted office users usually accommodated in Town Centre locations. Demand for town centre space remains relatively weak as a consequence, exacerbated by the significant proportion of the available accommodation comprising older multi-storey 1960s and 1970s buildings.

10.30 Stoke City Council has also committed to relocating some of its service delivery functions from Stoke Town Centre to brand new office space at No.1 Smithfield in Hanley City Centre’s new CBD. Furthermore Bet365 has commissioned a new build headquarters on Festival Park totalling 13,000 sqm. When the company relocates to this new facility, it will release five buildings totalling 7,430 sqm. This will release a significant amount of additional, good quality second hand supply into the market and there is concern amongst local office landlords on how long it will take the market to absorb the space being vacated by these two occupiers and the potential effect it may have on rental levels.

10.31 It is understood that there is generally little appetite from developers to convert offices to residential under permitted development rights.

Future Requirements

10.32 The demand forecasting analysis concluded that the employment land OAN for Stoke-on-Trent indicated a range of between 146 ha and 201 ha, and between 44 ha and 133 ha for Newcastle-under-Lyme.

10.33 The analysis in Section 8.0 concluded that an indicative split of 25% for B1a/B1b office and 75% for B1c/B2/B8 industrial and warehousing land, would be appropriate for both local authorities.

10.34 This indicative split sought to balance the replacement of some existing industrial stock with aspirations for heightened demand in this sector going forward; the positive growth in office requirements alongside economic aspirations for this sector; the release of substantial amounts of office floorspace in Stoke-on-Trent City in the near future; the reduction in the decline of the industrial sector and the demand for B8 warehousing (recognising that

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this land hungry sector requires a disproportionate amount of land relative to employment generated).

10.35 A policy decision will need to be made to ensure that if a specific (and, as yet, unforeseen) inward investment opportunity were to arise, a suitably sized prestige site could be made available within the overall portfolio in an accessible location attractive to the market. This may require Officers to adopt a flexible approach responding to the release/reservation of such a site.

10.36 The demand modelling and qualitative analysis results in the following split:

 Stoke-on-Trent: 146 ha – 201 ha, of which between 36.5 and 50.25 ha relates to office land, and between 109.5 ha and 150.75 ha for industrial/warehousing land;

 Newcastle-under-Lyme: 44 ha – 133 ha, of which between 11.0 ha and 33.75 ha relates to office land, and between 33.0 ha and 101.25 ha for industrial/warehousing land.

10.37 Across the FEMA overall, therefore, this would equate to a need for between 190 ha and 334 ha over the 26-year plan period, or 27 ha – 64 ha across five year rolling supply periods.

10.38 This is set against an overall adjusted supply of 169.6 ha in both local authorities (as set out in Section 9.0).

10.39 On this basis, Policy SP2: ‘Spatial Principles of Economic Development’ in the joint Core Spatial Strategy (October 2009), which identified a level of employment land need of 332 ha for the two Boroughs (based on the West Midlands RSS target), is now out of date.

10.40 There is therefore a potential shortfall in both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle- under-Lyme (and across the FEMA as a whole) if the top end of the employment land OAN range is pursued. This potential shortfall is supported by qualitative market feedback which indicates that both local authorities require more industrial space in particular to accommodate indigenous growth and enable the necessary churn and upgrading/ intensification of existing sites.

10.41 In this context, a number of options emerge:

1. Resist loss of prime industrial space in future

10.42 Against the backdrop of very high levels of industrial losses of industrial space in recent years, which is expected to continue given the volume of extant permissions for change of use of employment land to non B-Uses, Stoke-on- Trent’s industrial market is characterised by a general shortage of good quality, well located, second hand industrial accommodation. This is also the case for Newcastle-under-Lyme. At the other end of the scale, the City still has a wide variety of older industrial stock across the conurbation, with older, often multi- storey, Victorian manufacturing building in deteriorating states of repair leading to higher vacancy rates.

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10.43 Clearly the 2013 appeal into the failure to determine an outline planning application for up to 300 dwellings at land at Trentham Lakes, Stanley Matthews Way, resulted in the loss of 13.6 ha of employment land, with the Inspector finding that the loss of the prime employment site was not detrimental given the availability of alternative sites in the City. To avoid this situation in future, it is recommended that Policy SP2: ‘Spatial Principles of Economic Development’ be strengthened to identify the key employment sites to be retained, with the reasoned justification informed by the findings of this ELR.

10.44 The assessment of sites undertaken as part of this study indicates that many of both Stoke-on-Trent’s and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s existing industrial sites appear to be performing well. The best performing sites should continue to be safeguarded for employment use, set out in a revised Policy SP2 of the Core Spatial Strategy (October 2009), and supported to continue to play an important role in accommodating business activity in both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme.

10.45 At the same time, it is considered that the addition of a further Policy in the Core Spatial Strategy to the effect that alternative uses on employment land will be permitted where the site can be shown to be no longer ‘fit for purpose’ also appears appropriate in light of the Framework’s warning against the long term protection of sites allocated for employment use where there is no reasonable prospect of a site being used for that purpose. This has a particular resonance to those industrial areas set within largely residential hinterlands in Stoke-on-Trent in particular.

10.46 It is worth noting that the positive requirements for industrial space incorporate some allowance for replacement of on-going losses of employment space to other uses91. Theoretically, a reduction in the requirement for space could be achieved by removing or reducing the allowance for replacing losses of employment space. However, such an approach would run counter to the well- established principle in employment land assessments. Moreover, such an accounting exercise would risk a diminution in the amount of industrial space available and lead to a further tightening in the market for space, potentially harming both areas’ economic vitality.

2. Allocate new industrial sites

10.47 The option of allocating additional sites for industrial development would increase the current choice of sites and provide both local authorities with new development opportunities of the size and scale necessary to enable North Staffordshire to accommodate both indigenous firm expansion and relocations from outside of the FEMA. This should be set out in more detail in a new Policy SP2 of the Core Spatial Strategy setting out precise locations and sites to allocate.

91 This reflects the approach advocated in the ODPM guidance and the SEEPB Guidance (2010)

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10.48 Within the current climate of fragile (albeit strengthening) demand and limited access to finance/capital for development, focus should be placed upon those sites in areas of strongest market demand, that have the greatest appeal to potential occupiers and developers, and that are most readily available to be brought forward for development (i.e. have the fewest infrastructure barriers such as poor access and environmental issues).

10.49 The best performing potential new allocations are set out in Section 9.0. Whilst the OAN is greater than the potential future employment land supply under all modelling scenarios in Stoke-on-Trent, this is not the case in Newcastle-under- Lyme where four scenarios would give rise to a quantitative surplus of employment land. It is therefore appropriate for both local authorities to consider a range of options to enable them to pursue those sites that fit most closely with their policy aspirations.

10.50 It is worth reiterating at this point that the site assessment matrix (Appendix 5) is only intended to be used as a reference point when considering which sites to allocate for development and should not, in itself, determine which sites are brought forward and which are discarded. Notwithstanding this, there is a possibility that the grouping of certain adjacent sites could potentially improve their viability and/or overall score although many of the sites not recommended for employment purposes suffer a range of constraints. In view of this, it may be that the next stage in the process requires the wider masterplanning of particular areas, detailed site viability assessments, discussions with landowners and the possible cross-subsidisation of sites (further down the line), which we have not been able to explore as part of the current Study.

10.51 The focus should be on providing further industrial and warehousing allocations in Stoke-on-Trent in particular. Although the econometric projections suggest a potential growth in office jobs over the plan period in both local authorities, there are concerns regarding the amount of secondary office space that will become available in Stoke-on-Trent following relocations, whilst the office market remains weak in the town centres and further Business Park office allocations could serve to weaken their attractiveness still further.

10.52 That said, it may be appropriate to consider allocating at least one new office site/extending an existing better performing site in both local authorities in order to provide the choice and flexibility for occupiers, as well as sites of the scale and size to enable North Staffordshire to attract larger office occupiers that historically the area has been unable to do. This would also provide the opportunity for high quality space for office development to be located in the areas of the FEMA that continue to attract strongest demand.

10.53 In this regard, Policy SP2 of the Core Spatial Strategy states that:

“Development of the City Centre of Stoke-on-Trent as the main focus for mixed use regeneration incorporating new office led schemes and Newcastle Town Centre as a focus for office development incorporated into mixed use schemes.”

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10.54 This appears to remain relevant, particularly in light of Policy support in the Framework, although as noted above it will be important that new office allocations are located in areas of strongest market demand and that can provide longer term, sustainable and viable development opportunities. Much damage has been done in the recent past regarding the loss of office users who would ordinarily be based in town centre locations and this trend must be reversed if the likes of Newcastle-under-Lyme town centre and Stoke town centre are going to thrive in future.

3. Intensification of existing sites

10.55 The upgrading and refurbishment of existing industrial areas, and where possible, redevelopment so that they can be used more efficiently provides a further option for accommodating future requirements. Better utilisation of the existing industrial stock could be achieved through gradual redevelopment of individual plots, for example replacing a large older unit with development of modern smaller units for which there is good demand.

10.56 The site assessments identify limited scope to upgrade and renew some of the poorer performing sites, to ensure that this space remains attractive and viable to the market. In the first instance, this approach could focus on older employment sites that do not currently reflect modern working layouts, densities, technology and premises (for example Victorian manufacturing buildings in Longton, Stoke-on-Trent) and perform relatively poorly based on recent site assessments. This may comprise redevelopment, but qualitative improvements can also be delivered through refurbishment of existing buildings to some extent.

4. Policy Delivery Mechanisms

10.57 Alongside provision of new supply as noted above, upgrading and renewal of the FEMA’s existing stock of office accommodation will also be important to ensure that central locations are better able to compete with the out of town Business Parks. It will not only ensure that this space remains attractive to the market, but may also provide the opportunity to create some additional supply. This may comprise redevelopment, but qualitative improvements can also be delivered through refurbishment of existing buildings to some extent.

10.58 Barriers to the redevelopment of industrial premises in the two local authority areas include potential viability considerations even in the current (improving) market climate. Better utilisation of the stock on these estates could be achieved either through gradual redevelopment of individual plots (e.g. replacing a large older unit with development of modern small units (particularly move on workspace) for which there is good demand, or the sub- division of larger units. Based on experience elsewhere, qualitative improvements on the larger estates could also include the stripping and repainting of older industrial units, and making environmental, security and traffic management improvements through a Business Improvement District [BID] mechanism. Similar processes of gradual upgrading could be

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encouraged on larger industrial areas to ensure they can make a positive contribution to meeting some of Stoke-on-Trent’s and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s future growth requirements.

10.59 There may also be the potential to explore different funding sources to enable small/medium firms to upgrade premises or develop new premises if the market does not deliver these improvements, either through gap funding assistance or de-risking through up-front finance. This could include a number of forms of direct Council/LEP financial support such as a Business Improvement Grant, direct lending to small firms and/or mortgage support, as well as grants to install renewable energy equipment. Such measures may be harder to fund in the current economic climate but could appear worthwhile as future actions.

10.60 Section 106 agreements could potentially be used, either directly or indirectly, to deliver workspace. This particularly applies to schemes which involve a mixed-use redevelopment of existing employment land. Provision could be either on-site or in some cases, at an alternative location. It should be noted that the ability for projects to generate sufficient profit to enable such levies may be limited in all but the most buoyant markets. Any requirement to use S106 to cross fund employment development from residential or retail uses will need to be underpinned by strong evidence justifying the need and viability of such an approach. The authorities may also wish to explore the potential for using CIL to deliver infrastructure, such as highways and communications infrastructure, to support the delivery of employment sites. This would be subject to such provision according with the legislation and regulations governing CIL.

10.61 Whilst this approach offers the prospect of new employment space in Stoke- on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme, there are some potential problems in ensuring such provision is attractive to the market. The layout of the site and uses, particularly for mixed-use schemes, can make a significant difference to their commercial appeal, with most office occupiers for example wanting a relatively high profile location towards the front of a site and without any potential for amenity conflicts. In addition, there may be issues about matching the type of space delivered to demand in that area.

10.62 Where the development lies within an area of low industrial and office demand (i.e. areas with high vacancy rates at present such as Longton), subject to the legal provisions governing such approaches, funding from sources such as CIL/s.106 contributions could be pooled and used to develop workspace space on other sites, perhaps including those in Council ownership, and loans or grants to firms to support upgrading of premises. This could also potentially be used to fund further enterprise or incubation workspace.

10.63 It may be appropriate to explore opportunities to de-risk planning issues for certain types of development, in a way that is appropriate to the site context. This could include, for example, Local Development Orders [LDOs], design codes, or other forms of planning brief to provide greater certainty on the types of development that will be supported by the two Councils. LDOs allow

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Councils to identify specific areas/sites where express planning permission is not required for certain types of development. Examples applying to industrial estates, for example, could include alterations or certain levels of extensions to premises, construction of new employment premises within specified limits, and some types of change of use. In some situations, this approach could provide benefits to occupiers/developers through greater flexibility, speed, certainty of outcome and reduced cost.

10.64 Mixed use schemes can also be a way forward in delivering some new office or industrial space. This is more likely to be effective on larger schemes.

10.65 The market alone is unlikely to deliver these improvements. Encouragement for owners/developers may be necessary, and could be aided by a range of planning and economic development interventions including: A Core Spatial Strategy policy encouraging such forms of upgrading, although this will only work in combination with other actions; Continued and stronger Core Spatial Strategy policy protection for certain industrial sites (reducing the potential for residential ‘hope value’ pricing out development); Local initiatives to publicise to local firms case studies of successful upgrading of business premises, including costs, local contractors involved and rental or other benefits achieved; Encouragement of mixed use developments to help facilitate and cross- subsidise the creation of B-class premises; and, STCC and NLBC economic development officers engaging with owners on upgrading of premises.

Other Policy Issues

Constructing a delivery trajectory for employment sites

10.66 In light of significant uncertainty surrounding the future pipeline of employment land supply and the potential emergence of a number of new sites for employment allocation, it would appear sensible to identify a realistic delivery trajectory for employment sites over the plan period to 2039 to enable the Councils to evidence how their portfolio of allocations, extant planning permissions and other development opportunities will support delivery of new space over the short, medium and long-term (structured broadly in five year periods).

10.67 This accords with the approach set out in the former SEEPB guidance on employment land assessments which encouraged local authorities to demonstrate a five-year rolling supply of employment land, alongside a requirement in the Framework for local planning authorities to plan proactively to meet the development needs of business as well as guidance in the Government’s White Paper92 for local authorities to support growth and

92 HM Government, Local Growth: Realising Every Place’s Potential, October 2010

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development through ensuring a responsive supply of land that supports business growth.

10.68 Where any gaps are identified, the Councils will want to consider options for how this can be addressed (potentially as part of the emerging Core Spatial Strategy document). It is helpful for sites to be assessed on a consistent basis in order to determine at broadly what point in the Plan period they may become available, and how important any individual site is for meeting either office or industrial needs within any rolling five-year period.

10.69 As noted above, across the FEMA overall, the employment land OAN generated a need for between 37 ha – 64 ha across five year rolling supply periods. In determining the likely timing and availability of land that could meet these 5-year requirements, this delivery trajectory should have regard to: the planning status of sites (extant planning permission, allocation etc); development constraints/costs and known requirements for infrastructure; current developer/landowner aspirations; and market delivery and viability factors.

10.70 The assessment provides the opportunity to identify and map out the Core Spatial Strategy’s ‘when’, ‘whom’ and ‘how’ employment space delivery actions for each site. In turn, it will also offer a basis to continually assess the potential role of a site in meeting employment land and other Core Spatial Strategy objectives (and, inter alia, the policy benefits that would accrue if earlier delivery of the site was encouraged). The trajectory should be linked to the annual monitoring process and periodically updated to ensure the rolling supply of employment land during the Plan period.

Affordable space for small businesses

10.71 As noted in the Commercial Market Analysis Section, there is strong demand in both areas for workshop units let on relatively flexible, short term leases. It is understood that no developers are currently building for this market and as a result both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme have limited existing provision of space geared towards small, start-up businesses. However, given the FEMA’s concentration of SME’s and strong track record of entrepreneurial activity, it is important that both STCC and NLBC provide this type of space (alongside wider business support) if indigenous business growth is to be encouraged and retained within the two local authorities. Demand for this type of small scale, affordable space is also likely to continue to grow in future as businesses increasingly seek flexible and efficient workspaces, including those that offer hot-desking and shared facilities.

10.72 Market feedback identified a requirement for additional start-up/incubator style office space, offering small units on flexible terms and crucially, at affordable rates. In order to meet this requirement, the two Councils should seek to

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maximise opportunities for delivery of small scale, managed and affordable work space within areas which attract strongest office market demand.

10.73 Whilst re-development and intensification of the study area’s existing employment sites should be encouraged to allow sites to be used more efficiently and accommodate additional employment space, it will be important to re-provide any cheaper/affordable business units that currently occupy these sites either on-site or elsewhere within the FEMA. This could involve delivery of new, purpose-built space and/or the refurbishment of older accommodation into affordable start-up space. Based on experience elsewhere, two approaches to providing such premises could be considered: 1 seek provision of small units within larger employment developments, residential or mixed use schemes; this could be achieved as part of the s106 obligations with the developer delivering the units for management by the Council or another operator. Caution will be needed during a period of market uncertainty to ensure this does not damage delivery of potentially valuable development; and 2 encourage conversion/sub-division of older industrial space into a number of small, lower cost office units (e.g. a small business centre) which can provide a more cost effective option than provision of new bespoke space; if the market did not bring this forward, such a scheme could be instigated by the Councils with a development partner or consortium.

Monitoring

10.74 Reflecting guidance set out in the Practice Guidance, it will be important to monitor future change in the demand and supply of employment space to identify changing patterns and inform any policy responses required. This is particularly significant given the scale of B class floorspace losses in Stoke-on- Trent in particular in recent years with regards to industrial uses.

10.75 Although the Councils monitor planning permissions granted for employment (B class) uses in the two local authority areas on an on-going basis, they do not appear to monitor or record whether these permissions have been implemented either in full or in part. This makes it difficult to accurately assess the scale and nature of employment development that is occurring within the study area. Furthermore we have raised significant concerns regarding how past completions have been registered in Stoke-on-Trent, which in some cases has resulted in an over-estimation of past take up of employment land and potentially losses to other non B-Class uses. Whilst we understand measures have been put into place following the outcome of the Trentham Lakes Inquiry which analysed the issue of how past take up was monitored in detail, a consistent, transparent, approach going forward will be a necessity.

10.76 Specific items which it could be useful to monitor are identified below and should be incorporated into the Monitoring Framework of the emerging Core Spatial Strategy:

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a levels of future demand for office/industrial space and which of the study’s estimates of future requirements this best relates to; b how much of the currently identified supply of employment space commitments are likely to come forward and whether any new sites emerge; c the extent and type of any losses of existing employment land to non B- uses, particularly residential (part of the on-going monitoring of office losses under the amended Permitted Development rights) and in a more detailed format than existing monitoring arrangements (i.e. recording the quantum of office floorspace lost); and, d any on-going deficiencies in provision for specific types of employment premises (e.g. small, low cost, business or industrial units).

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Appendix 1 Business Survey Quotes

An online business survey was undertaken as part of the study with a sample of 63 firms across a range of B class sectors and locations in both authorities. A selection of quotes is presented below by theme.

Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme as a Business Location

“Location is good for our business. The area has the potential to be a major location for the Automotive sector but this does not seem to be a strategic direction that the local councils are supporting.”

“Great place to live and work. However we need to significantly raise the profile through positive promotion of North Staffs in both the UK and EU.”

“It is ideally located in the country and there are no problems travelling to other cities (by road or train), but local transport is hopeless”

Current Business Premises

“Our premises are too small, with not enough parking. Broadband speed and reliability is also a major issue.”

“We occupy an old building which is expensive to maintain and has poor internet connectivity.”

“Lack of parking and lack of expansion space”

Obstacles to expansion

“My biggest concerns are the business rates. I pay more for my rates then I do for my mortgage!”

“Chronic local road congestion, exacerbated by the expansion of educational facilities in the University Quarter, with no road infrastructure upgrade planned.”

“Business rates and not being able to find the right premises have held me back.”

“Cost of offices for micro businesses, along with a lack of parking.”

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Appendix 2 Employment Space in Adjoining Areas

Cheshire East

Cheshire East lies to the north of Newcastle-under-Lyme and is a large borough with an extensive rural area. Its two principal towns are Crewe and Macclesfield. Cheshire East maintains a high supply of employment land, much of which is allocated or committed for mixed use development. The Annual Monitoring Report 2012/13 indicates that, as at 31 March 2013, the borough had a gross employment land supply of 288.65 ha. However, much of the supply is made up of a small number of very large sites concentrated in a small number of settlements. These include: South Macclesfield Development Area (22 ha); Basford East, Crewe (c. 50 ha); Basford West, Crewe (c. 42 ha); Midpoint 18, Middlewich (c. 41 ha); and Midpoint 18 Phase 3, Middlewich (53 ha).

The Cheshire East ELR (2012) identifies that between 278 ha and 324 ha of employment land (13.23 ha – 15.41 ha per year) could be required in Cheshire East over the period 2009 to 2030. Based on this analysis, it concludes that Cheshire East could have a potential shortfall of employment land between 5.40 ha and 51.33 ha. Any potential loss of existing employment areas could result in an increase in the rate of losses. Planning policies in the Local Plan Strategy Submission Version (which is subject to further work before the Examination can proceed) therefore identify potential sites as well as seeking to retain existing key employment sites which the ELR suggested might be lost to alternative uses. Provision is made for a minimum of 300 ha of land for business, general industrial and storage and distribution uses. The Local Plan relies on a number of key strategic employment sites to deliver this ambition, including two sites just across the boundary in Alsager - Radway Green Extension (c. 25 ha) and Radway Green Brownfield (10 ha) and two in Congleton North (20 ha). The recommended distribution of employment land across the Borough is as follows: Principal Towns (80 ha); Key Service Centres (188 ha) and elsewhere (83 ha).

Stafford

Stafford is a large, predominantly rural district located to the south of both Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme authorities. The 2012 ELR states that the majority of property market activity occurs in the Borough’s two main settlements of Stafford and Stone along the main routes and near to the junctions with major roads and the M6 motorway. The county town of Stafford is the focus for most employment, with activity centred on two broad locations on the northern and eastern edges of the town (in particular Tollgate Industrial Estate, Tollgate Park, Primepoint, ProLogis Park, Staffordshire Technology Park, Beacon Business Park and Beacon Business Park Extension). However, there are also a number of employment locations located adjacent to the town

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centre. Economic activity in Stone town is centred on the town centre and the well-established industrial estates at Whitebridge and Stone Business Park. There are also a number of large significant employment sites within rural areas including: Eccleshall; Hixon; Cotes Heath; Great Brideford; Blythe Bridge and Meaford. Meaford Power Station is a 34 ha site and has planning permission (refs: 98/35897/OUT, 08/10097/REM & 14/21397/REM) for B1, B2 & B8 uses, which are anticipated to come forward in the short-term. As of April 2012, a total of 109.2 ha of employment land was available, 97.6 ha of which had full planning permission.

The Stafford Local Plan (Plan for Stafford) states that provision will be made for 8 ha per year of additional employment land over the Plan period, equating to a total of 160 ha between 2011 and 2031. This is to be distributed as follows: Stafford (90 ha); Stone (20 ha); and the rest of the Borough (50 ha). Policies generally seek to resist the loss of employment land to other uses. The Plan identifies Hadleigh Park (Former Creda Works Ltd) at Blythe Bridge as a Major Developed Site in the Green Belt where limited infilling or the partial or complete redevelopment will be supported for employment purposes. This site (c. 10 ha) is a short distance away from the Blythe Bridge Regional Investment Site within Staffordshire Moorlands District Council’s area and has planning permission for B1, B2 & B8 uses (refs: 08/09751/COU, 09/11860/FUL & 11/15451) . The Local Plan also identifies a Strategic Development Location (at least 18 ha) for a new employment site to the south of Stone Business Park.

Staffordshire Moorlands

The joint High Peak and Staffordshire Moorlands Employment Land Review (2014) determined the need for between 25 ha – 45 ha of employment land between 2011 and 2031.

The 50 ha strategic site at Blythe Bridge (which is located entirely within the boundaries of Staffordshire Moorlands but in close proximity to the Stoke-on- Trent boundary) was designed to meet the inward investment needs of the Stoke-on-Trent/Newcastle-under-Lyme conurbation in the early 1990s. This site benefits from outline planning permission until 2022.

A planning application for a large mixed-use site (with both employment and residential uses) was been approved in September 2014 in the area of Cresswell, close to the Stoke-on-Trent boundary. If this development is completed, its size means that it may absorb the District’s entire rural employment land allocation.

Staffordshire Moorlands immediately adjoins the eastern boundaries of Stoke- on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme and contains the main settlements of Leek, Biddulph and Cheadle. In 2012, Staffordshire Moorlands had over 598,000 sq m of industrial/ commercial floorspace, with 91% of the stock relating to industrial floorspace. At the time, only 6,367 sq m of industrial floorspace was being actively marketed, equivalent to just over 1% of the stock. This is lower than what could be considered the ‘ideal’ level of vacancy

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necessary to enable a properly functioning market and suggests the variety and supply of premises in the District may be limited and therefore properties are occupied quickly. For offices, the available stock was 1,329 sq m, equivalent to almost 3% of the total stock. Again, this is below the typical market level of 8 -10% and might be attributed to low levels of office space. Set against this available supply is the potential for around 30 ha of existing employment land to be lost to non-B class uses over the plan period.

The Core Strategy states that provision will be made for at least 24 hectares of additional employment land in Staffordshire Moorlands (excluding the Peak District National Park) during the period 2006 to 2026. Sufficient deliverable land will be identified to provide at least 6 hectares of employment land at all times. The Core Strategy distributes the additional employment land requirement over the period to 2026 as follows: Leek (7.2 ha); Biddulph (4.8 ha); Cheadle (4.8 ha); and Rural Areas (7.2 ha). The Council will be undertaking an early and comprehensive review of employment needs for the plan period 2016 to 2031, which will incorporate work on the site allocations document.

The 49 ha Regional Investment Site at Blythe Bridge (which is in close proximity to the Stoke-on-Trent boundary) was designed to meet the inward investment needs of the Stoke/Newcastle conurbation in the early 1990s. This site continues to have outline planning permission for B1 use until 2021.

Shropshire

Shropshire lies to the west of Newcastle-under-Lyme and is a large, predominantly rural county. The 2011 ELR indicates that the County has a good portfolio of employment land and premises with a significantly larger industrial market than office market. The most attractive business locations are areas close to key arterial routes and on main business parks and industrial estates, together with Shrewsbury town centre (for the office sector). In 2008 Shropshire had 1,892,000 sq m of industrial floorspace and 284,000 sq m of office floorspace. Vacancies in 2010 were recorded as 86,755 sq m for industrial floorspace and 22,776 sq m for office floorspace. Industrial demand tends to be for units up to 500 sq m with limited demand for large distribution warehousing units whilst the bulk of office demand is for units up 100 sq m, concentrated in Shrewsbury.

Shropshire’s Core Strategy identifies a need for 290 ha of employment land between 2006 and 2026. The portfolio of land will be delivered using a managed reservoir which will comprise a rolling 5 year strategic land supply of 72 ha comprising readily available employment commitments and allocations. The Core Strategy distributes the additional employment land required over the period to 2026 as follows: North West Shropshire (55 – 65 ha); North East Shropshire (50 – 60 ha); Central Shropshire (95 – 105 ha); South Shropshire (35 – 45 ha); and East Shropshire (30 - 40 ha). However, the employment land identified in the sustainable urban extensions at Shrewsbury (the County town and sub-regional centre) and Oswestry represent the key locations within the employment land portfolio.

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The Council’s Site Allocations and Management of Development DPD was considered at examination towards the end of 2014. The Inspector’s report is still awaited. However, it identifies that 67 ha of employment land was built between 2006 and 2013 with commitments representing a further 133 ha. This leaves an additional 90 ha to be delivered up to 2026. The preferred form of employment development is Class B uses with a special presumption for recycling and environmental industries. Policy MD9 seeks to protect employment areas from alternative uses.

The Council has indicated that no land will need to be provided by either STCC or NLBC to cater for Shropshire’s employment land demand. A Müller industrial and distribution plant located in Market Drayton employs a large number of staff and due to its proximity to the Newcastle-under-Lyme border has commuting implications for NLBC. It is understood that there are currently no other cross boundary sites or on-going work between the Council and STCC or NLBC in relation to delivering employment land and inward investment initiatives.

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Appendix 3 List of Consultees

First Name Last Name Organisation

Mike Herbert St Modwen Developments Limited

Alan Sarjant Prologis

Jane Gratton Staffordshire Chamber of Commerce

Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Local Enterprise Partnership Peter Davenport / Staffordshire County Council

Phil Gratton Keele University

Phil Butters Keele University

Paul Gascoigne HCA

Nick Rees HCA

Mark Stapleton Langtree Developments

Shahram Sakhdari Realty Estates

Andrew Grove Harris Lamb

Philip Ray Steelite International

Greg Mills Leoni

Robert Gatensbury Economic Regeneration Manager

Ben Taylor Barton Willmore

Damien Cutting Nexus Planning Ltd

Knud Moller KVM Research

John Booth Seddon Construction

Simon Smith Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council

Bert Proctar Councillor, Newcastle-under-Lyme

Robert Hopwood Clowes Development

Rebecca Underdown Shropshire Council

A Yendole Stafford Borough Council

Helen Pakpahan Staffordshire Moorlands District Council

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Appendix 4 Site Assessment Criteria

The proposed criteria for assessing the quality/condition of allocated and other existing sites reflecting the particular circumstances of the local authority area are set out below. These criteria mainly relate to the inherent value of a site rather than current conditions on it, although such characteristics would also be noted. Additional criteria would apply to undeveloped allocated/development sites although ownership and availability information may not be possible to obtain in many cases and a judgement may need to be made on these.

Scorings can reflect a combination of different factors applying to the same criteria and a balanced judgment has to be made on an appropriate overall score.

Strategic Road Access

For the purpose of this assessment strategic roads are defined as comprising the A34, the A50 and A500

Very Good = within 2 Km of usually free flowing strategic roads (the A34 south of Talke; all of the A50; and the A500, excluding the section between Stoke town centre and Etruria), via good unconstrained roads.

Very Poor = over 5 Km from strategic road junction/access, and/or through constrained/local roads, and/or through town centre or residential areas etc.

Local Accessibility

Very Good = local access: via free moving good roads avoiding residential areas/difficult junctions; unconstrained vehicle access to the site with good visibility/lack of queuing; close access to range of town centre public transport services.

Very Poor = difficult/narrow road access, via residential roads, difficult site access junction, congested local roads; low level/limited range/infrequent public transport services nearby

NB: this includes determining whether there is a bus stop or interchange within 400m of a site, informed by a spatial query of NaPTAN data. Proximity to Urban Areas and Access to Labour and Services

Very Good = Within, or with good access to, a town centre/suitably large suburban centre offering a wide range of services; and also in close proximity to sizeable residential areas providing local labour supply

Very Poor = remote, isolated site, no local services or residential areas nearby

Compatibility of Adjoining Uses

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Very Good = Within larger employment area/no incompatible surrounding land use

Average = B1 use adjoining residential/other sensitive uses

Poor - Very Poor = B2/B8 adjoining residential/other sensitive uses

Developmental and Environmental Constraints

Very Good = generally level site, regular shape, over 3 ha in size; low flood risk (Zone 1); no conservation or landscape constraints on scale of development; no adverse ground conditions or abnormal development costs; no other significant constraints on new development

Very Poor = sloping/uneven site; under 0.5 ha, irregular/narrow shape, other severe constraints; within flood risk Zone 3; conservation or landscape constraints on scale of development; adverse ground conditions or abnormal development costs

Market Attractiveness

Very Good = high profile/high quality appearance, managed site; good environment and quality of occupiers; under 10% vacant; viewed as attractive by agents/occupiers; recent investment/development activity, strong demand, units rarely available

Very Poor = run-down unattractive appearance/location; attracts lower end users and over 25% vacant space/buildings; vacant units not marketed; no recent investment; units remain vacant for lengthy period

Barriers to Delivery

Identify any factors that would constrain development of the site for employment uses e.g. site occupied, need for infrastructure and fragmented ownership

Planning Factors

Identify any planning designations or policy constraints that could affect development of the site for employment uses

9135951v13

Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent : Joint Employment Land Review

Appendix 5 Site Assessment Matrix

9135951v13

ST25 ST29 ST22 ST51 ST52 ST72 ST73 ST28 ST47 ST16 ST70 ST8 ST54 ST42 NONE VACANT LAND WITHIN EXISTING EMPLOYMENTSPACE EXISTING WITHIN LAND VACANT LOCALPLANALLOCATIONS EXISTING SUPPLY OF EMPLOYMENT SPACE OFEMPLOYMENT EXISTING SUPPLY Stoke Trent on

Reference College(Snow Hill Building) Depot, SevernFederationWater Trent BurslemRd, CampbellThe Centre HoldcroftHonda, SneydCobridge Street, MilburnDIY, Focus Former Road,Cobridge LaneValleyForgeEtruria2a Etruria Phase HanleyPark4, Trade Economic CourtWades, andFestival Way Festival Butters 140BroadHanley Street SouthLakes Trentham (inclNorth)Lakes Trentham plot at MeirPark Unit (Recticel),Business 1EnterpriseWay, IvyHouseof Rd West Precincts, Hanley andWest East DistrictCentral Business (Smithfield) SiteName Total Area (ha) Area Total 65.72 0.22 1.71 0.72 0.64 6.09 2.55 0.31 0.07 3.23 6.83 3.17 5.3 3.1

Estimated Net Developable 20.70 0.22 3.01 1.40 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Area (ha) Existing employmentsite Existing employmentsite Existing employmentsite Existing Land[c.1/3 sitearea] employmentsite Vacant/ Existing employmentsite Existing Land Ready' Vacant 'Oven / redeveloped) employmentsite (being Existing Land employmentsite Vacant/ Existing employmentsite Existing developed B-Classoffice currentlybeing 1/3 vacant approx land 1/3employmentsite (northeast), (south),1/3 housing approx Approx employment/retail site Existing employmentsite Existing redeveloped) employmentsite [being Existing redeveloped] siteEmployment[being Existing

Site Status

Average Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Average Average Average Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Strategic Access

Average Good Good Good Good Good Good Average Good Average Average Average Very Good Very Good Local Access Assessment Criteria Assessment

Good Good Average Good Good Average Average Poor Good Average Good Good Very Good Very Good Proximity to Labour & Amenities/Services

Average Average Good Average Good Very Good Very Good Good Average Poor Good Good Good Very Good Compatibility with Adjoining Uses

Development & Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Average Good Good Good Very Good Environmental Constraints

Poor Average Poor Average Average Good Good Good Poor Good Good Very Good Good Good Market Attractiveness areas) areas) regenerationpriority (includingcontribution to Planning Factors Enterprise Zone Enterprise CeramicsValley Project).Improvement HighwayConnectivity& Valley(part Etruria ofthe Valley LinkEtruria Road benefitfrom the Will Action Plan (Policy DP1) Road AreaCorridor City Centre and Etruria Plan (Policy DP3) AreaCorridor Action and Etruria Road Masterplan; City Centre Regeneration Part of Smithfield N/A (Fully developed) (Fully N/A (fully developed) N/A (fully developed) N/A identified None (fully developed) N/A identified None land Limitedmarket undeveloped interest in developed) (Fully N/A developed) (Fully N/A encroachmentretail& ofhousing 3/ Zone ofsiteFlood Partwithinis (fully developed) N/A (fully developed) N/A ofthispart siteofthe vacant obtaining and Smithfields possession space,ofretaildevelopment successthe of on officeofthe componentdependent is abusypart CityDevelopmentofthe Centre. ofredevelopment Majorretail-ledmixed-use rentssecuringabovemarketthe norm officeaccommodation on dependent is remaining viability Financial ofdeveloping Barriers to DeliverytoBarriers Assessment Criteria Assessment N/A N/A N/A term Short/Medium N/A term Short/Medium term Short N/A term Short term Short/Medium N/A N/A term Short/Medium N/A Deliveryfor Timescale B1a B1a/B2 B8 B1/B8 B1/B2/B8 B8 and B1c,& B1a B2 B1a B1a B1a B8/B2/B1 B2/B8 B8/B2 B1a B1a PotentialUses OverallScore VeryGood VeryGood VeryGood Average Average Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good in low demand areademand low in Vacant4-storey frontage withprominent office building accesstoservices accessvery and good A50 tothe commercial/residential amixed withinarea, withgood accommodationTwo-story B1/B2 with car parking marketinterest specifiedsitenatureofthe limitspoorly dated itsthe and access excellent Despite strategictothe network,road network,road localservices.and labour accessGood south. tothearea with somehousing tothe industrialapredominantly sitein Partially developed network,linksroad servicestothe and good labour estateindustrial site on Occupied with parkingand ample Ceramicssite developmentthewithin Valley EZ. asstrategic aidentified Also network road very is good. nearbyservices No uses. accessbut B8 & B2 tothe Strategicsiteprioritywith underwaydevelopment B1,for nearbynetworkservicesroad no but Largelyvacant sitewithaccess very good strategictothe accessbut constraints distantand fromservices vacancieswith no site,building developed modern Fully accessnetworkaccesstoroad good & toservices accommodationsite with modern Small very and good 3. Zone Flood withinisalready south and developed) siteofthePart(mostly freightuse. located towards the strategicVery good networkroad potential linksforand amenities/services strategictothe networkroad nearby and Recentlysiteoccupiedwithextended,access very good transportservices/amenitiesand accessstrategictothe network road (A50), public speculativecalibre High withdevelopmentvery good office schemeusespace, including mixed partly vacant as partofmajor, City redeveloped Key siteCentre tobe officespre-let, viability offurtherphasesquestionable is Centrallycalibre located, high Two keysite. regeneration GeneralComments use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor employment withelementanof Consider use mixed for use Retainemploymentfor Recommendation ST44 ST23 ST5 ST56 ST32 ST20 ST19 ST53 ST67 ST9 ST3 ST60 ST64 ST65 ST62 ST35 ST74 ST33 ST49

Reference LandNew Hanleyoff Century 23 St, -CFS Campbell 10 Rd-Castings, CFS Metaltek/Meighs Slimma CliffeVale/Caradon TwyfordsExcelsiorWks/Former ChatterleyWhitfield Brownhills Former Tileries, Harewood Tunstall Street, WhieldenLand at 5 Rd- CFS Whieldon Siteoff Road Hanley Street, Garth SandfordHill Holder St Etruscan Gas site, Barlaston WedgwoodEstate, FenparkIndustrial Estate Rd Uttoxeter ShiresBathrooms, CalveryandLowerStreet Spring Rd Clarence SiteDonat Road/ BurService ValleyRavensdale,Tunstall Works, CloughLand at (Including Street 12) CFS LandHigh9 Tunstalloff - CFS St, HotUnit2, Lane& 1 Industrial Estate SiteName Total Area (ha) Area Total 17.65 12.27 13.98 27.99 10.28 13.83 2.07 1.16 2.97 5.13 2.14 0.52 0.94 0.41 1.57 0.65 2.26 2.27 0.96

Estimated Net Developable 12.58 0.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 3.70 1.43 0.94 1.57 2.80 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Area (ha) site employment[Call Sites]for Existing site employment[Call Sites]for Existing employmentsite Existing employmentsite Existing VacantLand[ex-Employment Site] site employment[Call Sites]for Existing Site] VacantLand[ClearedEmployment Land employmentsite Vacant/ Existing employmentsite Existing VacantLand progress Redevelopment in employmentsite Existing VacantLand Use employmentsite Residential/ Existing employmentsite Existing employmentsite Existing employmentsite asusecar park)in Existing / [CallSites]for Vacant Land(currently Site Employment [CallSites]for Vacant Existing Land/ employmentsite Existing

Site Status

Very Good Very Good Average Poor Poor Very Good Very Good Very Good Average Average Poor Good Very Good Very Good Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Good Strategic Access

Good Good Average Poor Average Average Average Average Average Average Poor Poor Average Poor Average Average Good Good Average Local Access

Very Good Average Average Poor Good Average Average Very Good Average Pooor Average Good Average Average Average Average Very Good Very Good Poor Proximity to Labour & Amenities/Services

Average Poor Average Very Poor Average Good Poor Average Average Average Good Average Average Poor Very Poor Good Average Average Very Good Compatibility with Adjoining Uses

Development & Poor Average Average Very Poor Poor Poor Poor Average Good Good Poor Good Good Good Good Average Poor Good Good Environmental Constraints

Poor Average Poor Very Poor Very Poor Poor Poor Very Poor Poor Poor Average Poor Very Poor Average Average Average Poor Average Average Market Attractiveness areas) areas) regenerationpriority (includingcontribution to Planning Factors Action Plan (PolicyDP12) Plan Action Area RoadCorridor City Etruria and Centre Zone Valley Enterprise Ceramicspermission; LapsedPlanning Belt Greenthe in Situated Zone Enterprise CeramicsValley Belt Greenthe in Situated permission Lapsedplanning (PolicyDP5) Plan Action Area RoadCorridor City Etruria and Centre Three sides of the sitesidesflankedoftheare byhousing Three (fully developed) N/A high risk area high sitealsosituatedisacoalfield in The scheme. mixed-use apossible in withhousing Nearbymanufacturing incompatibleplantis (fully developed) N/A 3 zone flood sitethein is factoryhavevery littlemarketof Part appeal. WorksTwyfords derelictthe and Excelsior stateLocation alsopoor is ofrepair. buildingswhich are listed and/ora in poor ancientscheduled withmonumentmany sitedesignatedisas -Green a Belt Complex Constraints/Proximitytoincompatibleuses Lackofmarket interest/Environmental 3 Zone ofsiteFlood withinis marketVery amountlimited large appeal/A accesstoadjacent site toprovide used site Long/thinmainly being marketinterest Possibilityoffragmented ownership/Little (fully developed) N/A Limitedmarket interest redeveloped) (Currently being N/A (fully developed) N/A Lackofmarket interest (fully developed) N/A nearbyhousing/schoolbutdeveloped, Fully (fully developed) N/A risk area acoalfield classifiedhigh in as being Limitedmarket interestpartsite oftheand is Barriers to DeliverytoBarriers Medium term Medium Term Medium term Medium comment See term Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Medium/long N/A term Short/Medium 2015 Summer N/A term Short/Medium N/A N/A N/A term Medium term Short/Medium N/A Deliveryfor Timescale B1c,B2B8 & B8/B2 B8 & B2 comment See ofB1c element an including use mixed Residential-led B8/B2/B1c storage) (open B8 B1/B2/B8 B8/B2/B1 B1c,B2B8 & offices B2/B1 B8/B2/B1 B8/B2/B1 B2/B8 B8/B2 B2/B8 B2 & B1 B1a/B1c B2 PotentialUses OverallScore VeryPoor Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Good Good Good Good Poor this,access strategictothe networkroad very is good Notwithstanding boundary. closetopartnorthern ofthe risk area withacoalfield housing withinhigh site lies accessGood transport, topublic services& labour but strategicthe networkroad very is good However,developments. tohousing ofsiteaccessnear to mayHistoric remediation constrainlandfill development with3distant Zone services. Flood Partlyin units. industrialderelict & disused underutilised, employmentareapartalargewith part & occupied Ceramics situatedthe site Valley developmentin in EZ A forwardcomingemployment forpurposes Largesitewith various constraints fromit inhibiting Ceramicsthewithin Valley EZ. assite adevelopmenttransport. Identified public and access redevelopment,good despite in tolocalservices weaksite'slocationmarginal implies marketThe interest access withgood strategictothe networkroad market limited warehousewithDated looking but appeal therebymarketand interest areashapeitsreduces developable net site'sirregular accessveryDespite good tostrategic network,road the strategictothe networkroad very is good attractivenessthe ofthiscity-centre However,site. access offragmentedmay limiting ownership be likelihood The servicesamenitiesand access good tostrategic accessnetwork road poor but to establishedanestatewithin industrial Site withrelatively environmentalconstraints developmentalor known No area. eastsurrounding the wider and bystockdatedindustrial surrounded to with Site housing accessand networklocalroad tothepoor is Access suffersroad B2. and fromcongestion B1 including usesfor redeveloped adjacentbeing island) greenfield (andsite complex existing LocatedtheBelt,Green the in networkgood is Access strategiccondition. tothe good in road are officeincludes space Site unitswhichwarehousing and strategicthe networkroad very is good environmentalconstraints. developmentalor Access to knownVacantareawithuse no mixed sitein adequateaccess services/amenitiesand tolabour strategictransportnetwork road public and and Recentlysitewithaccess very developed good to usesmaydevelopmentconstrained byadjoining be access good Despite strategictothe network,road servicesand network,termsserviced oflocalamenities in poorly but transportaccessvery and good strategictothe road sitewith accessreasonable developed Fully topublic Accessstrategictothe networkroad very is good. ofservices,range marketwithbut limited interest. accessGood transport, abroad topublic and labour employmentsite agood transport,localservices/amenitiesand labour makes this accessVery good strategictothe network,road public services.amenities or nearbyrelativelyA50,andtothewith no near but establishedestate industrialWell withlinksstrongbus GeneralComments becomes availablebecomes employment,itif withelementanof Consider use mixed for use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor uses Consideralternativefor employment withelementanof Consider use mixed for use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor uses Consideralternativefor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor Recommendation ST38 ST34 ST36 ST10 ST57 ST58 ST4 ST30 ST1 ST17 ST12 ST68 ST71 ST13 ST48 ST55 CALL FOR SITES CALL FOR PERMISSION PLANNING EXTANT FUTURE SUPPLY SITES OF

Reference Chatterley Valley (Area 2)Chatterley Valley (Area 1)Chatterley Valley (Area 3)Chatterley Valley (Area Hewitts,Victoria FentonRd, Sub-Station, Former Fenton ButeStreet, Phoenix FoleyTimber,LongtonRd, Ex StaffordshireHouse/Fenton 25 Road/Hall Westport HorseStreet/PackLane, Burslem Johnson WhittleFormer MeirRd, Matthey, Lakes Trentham Way, StanleySouthPark, Matthews Car NorthLakes Trentham ParkHall Village Business Lane3b,Forge EtruriaValley& Etruria3a Phase BuildingStoneVale Road,94F, Trent Lubricants, Fuchs New HanleyCentury Street, North, St Hanley TrinitySt/Marsh SiteName Total Area (ha) Area Total 11.71 3.11 3.07 1.05 2.06 0.35 1.75 0.47 8.62 0.74 5.92 0.58 20.5 0.67 0.35 0.24

Estimated Net Developable 18.45 2.10 2.92 1.05 0.00 0.35 1.17 8.10 0.47 8.19 0.74 5.33 0.46 0.00 0.24 0.00 Area (ha) VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand employmentsite Existing VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand employmentsite Existing employmentsite Existing VacantLand

Site Status

Very Good Very Good Very Good Good Good Very Good Very Good Average Very Good Very Good Very Good Average Average Very Good Very Good Good Strategic Access

Good Good Good Poor Average Average Average Average Average Good Average Average Average Average Good Very Good Local Access

Average Average Very Poor Average Good Average Average Very Good Good Poor Average Average Average Good Very Good Very Good Proximity to Labour & Amenities/Services

Very Good Very Good Good Very Good Average Good Very Good Average Poor Very Good Average Very Good Good Good Good Average Compatibility with Adjoining Uses

Development & Very Poor Very Poor Good Average Average Poor Good Average Good Good Good Good Average Average Good Good Environmental Constraints

Poor Poor Average Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Average Average Poor Average Good Average Average Poor Market Attractiveness and Etruria Road Corridor Road Corridor Etruria and City /Centre Permission ExtantPlanning areas) regenerationpriority (includingcontribution to Planning Factors Enterprise Zone. Enterprise Ceramic ValleyPlan; LocalStokeMinerals Staffs' Permission; and ExtantPlanning Zone. Enterprise Ceramic Valley Plan; LocalStokeMinerals Staffs' Permission; and ExtantPlanning Zone Enterprise CeramicsValley StrategySP1; Policy Spatial Core permission; ExtantPlanning Generis) (Sui permission ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning permission Extantplanning permission ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning Permission ExtantPlanning Zone Enterprise Ceramics Valley SPD; Valley Etruria Permission; ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning DP11) (Policy Site Opportunity Development -Key Plan Action Area viabilityissues Limitedmarket interest/Potential financial Constraints Lackofmarket interest/Environmental Constraints Lackofmarket interest/Environmental Limitedmarket interest facilityGeneris)/Lack (Sui ofmarket interest may Site comeforward as ametal recycling incompatibleuses Lackofmarket interest/Proximity to Constraints Lackofmarket interest/Environmental Lackofmarket interest incompatibleuses Limitedmarket interest/Proximity to Lackofmarket interest stadiumcar park Potentiallyconnected with toupgrade plans incompatibleuses Lackofmarket interest/Proximity to identified None conflict toapotentialpossiblyrise give which could development,residentialfor identified is businesspark, immediately land north tothe development,majoraemploymentand use small/mediumindustry, mixed-use for Valley SPD Etruria the in identified Trafficimpact.Whilstsite thealsois (fully developed) N/A identified None Barriers to DeliverytoBarriers term Long Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium N/A term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium N/A short-termthe Unclear,potentially in term Short/Medium Deliveryfor Timescale B1/B2/B8 B8 B1a recyclingcentre ametalbecome likelybutto B2/B1a B8/B2/B1 B2/B8 B8/B2 element smallB1 including use mixed Residential-led B8 B8/B2/B1 B8 B1c/B8 B8 and B1c,& B1a B2 B8/B2/B1 B1a B1a PotentialUses OverallScore Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good CeramicsValley EZ theas site adevelopmentin Identified networkgood. is transport.However, topublic access strategictothe road siteGreenfieldwith physical constraints access poor and Ceramicsite developmenttheValleywithinEZ. asenvironmentalconstraints. a identified Also transportnetwork public withbutsomeandphysical and access withsitegood Prominent strategictothe road transport localservices/amenitiespublic and access bycurrentlypoor network.isItsappeal limited to accesswith exceptionallygood strategictothe road CeramicstheOven-ready sitedevelopmentin Valley EZ accessshapeand often-congestedtheonto A50 Market irregular site'sbythelong,interest limited is attractiveness arealimitssite's themarket network surrounding the relativelyDespiteaccess good strategictothe road strategictothe networkroad closeproximity site in positioned ofaprominently appeal limitsmarketthe required extensive remediation The strategicnetworkroad sitehasaccess very good The tothe undeveloped. Park,mostly isbut Trade ComprisesFenton conservationarea adjacenttothe addition nearbychurchin listedand officeconstrained isDevelopment bydemand unproven transport access good strategictothe network road public and twowith sitesidesand on flanked byhousing Prominent strategicknownnetworkconstraints road no and sitewhich hasaccessvery good undeveloped An tothe locatedeast.tothe developmentalconstraints estate thanahousing other known networkenvironmentalor road no and siteaccesswith excellent Undeveloped strategictothe siteconstraints identified businesswith villageno established in plot Well-positioned,undeveloped siteCeramicsthewithin Valley EZ. as adevelopment Identified uses. B8 & B2 forit develop nearbysensitive habitats intentionstoare there although sitewith Cleared potentiallocal access constraints and strategicnetworkroad access excellent tolocalamenitieslabour,the and smallsite attached A toamanufacturing plantwith knownconstraints no but situated Well sitespecifiedwithaccommodation poorly transport servicespublic labour,and potentialthemarket VeryaccessGood interest. to bydatedoffice sitestocksurrounded Cleared lowering GeneralComments use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor employment elementanof with use Retainmixed for use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor Recommendation ST63 ST18 ST40 ST66 ST50 ST7 ST39 ST61 ST11 ST46 ST26 ST37 ST15 ST69 ST2 ST45 ST14 OTHER SITES OTHER

Reference Mossfield RoadMossfield -New 8 FentonQuarry LandBetween Huntilee Road andScotia Tunstall Rd, IndustrialMossfieldRoad/ Mossfield Land Estate at RoyalDoulton, Burslem BridgewaterPotteryandsurrounding land, Lichfield St LandScotia Roadoff BerryhillPottery Sideway/Radial14 Park-CFS Rd EtruriaSainsburys, 20Tunstall 6):SewageChatterley- CFS WorksValley (Area Ravensdale Sportsfield,Former LandChemical 4 off Lane, Tunstall - CFS Wilson13HanfordRd, -CFS JunctionLand at ParkHallof Rd/Anchor AdderlyRd,1 -GreenCFS 21 MeirDepot,Road,Meir- CFS Uttoxeter CenturyLand HanleyStreet/WaterlooRd, at CityGeneralHospital/University 27 -CFS Hospital Northof Staffs SiteName Total Area (ha) Area Total 15.04 11.44 25.86 10.69 69.98 23.96 7.48 9.19 1.55 4.60 4.65 1.52 2.34 6.53 1.40 1.76 7.28

Estimated Net Developable 13.54 10.30 52.49 5.81 8.27 1.55 4.60 1.80 1.37 3.30 0.00 9.62 6.20 1.40 1.67 5.66 0.00 Area (ha) VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand Site Employment [CallSites]for Vacant / land Retail[Call Sites]forsite Existing [CallSites]for Vacant Land [CallSites]for Vacant Land [CallSites]for Vacant Land [CallSites]for Vacant Land [CallSites] for Vacant Land [CallSites]for Vacant Land employmentsite (Non-B-Class)[Call Sites]for Existing

Site Status

Average Good Very Good Average Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Good Good Good Very Good Average Average Very Good Very Good Very Good Strategic Access

Average Average Good Average Average Average Good Good Average Good Very Poor Very Poor Poor Poor Poor Average Good Local Access

Average Average Very Good Average Good Very Good Very Good Average Average Very Good Very Poor Very Poor Average Average Good Very Good Good Proximity to Labour & Amenities/Services

Average Poor Average Average Average Average Average Average Good Average Very Good Very Good Average Average Poor Average Average Compatibility with Adjoining Uses

Development & Poor Poor Very Poor Poor Good Average Poor Very Poor Poor Good Very Poor Poor Average Good Good Good Average Environmental Constraints

Very Poor Poor Very Poor Poor Very Poor Very Poor Average Poor Average Average Very Poor Very Poor Average Poor Very Poor Very Poor Average Market Attractiveness areas) areas) regenerationpriority (includingcontribution to Planning Factors Plant] [Recyclingpermission Lapsedplanning permission area; Lapsed planning conservation Burslem falls thewithinSite permission Lapsedplanning permission LapsedPlanning permission LapsedPlanning Boundary] Centre [Town9 and7 Policies StrategySpatial Core Zone Valley Enterprise Ceramic SP1; Policy StrategySpatial Core Zone CeramicValley Enterprise permission Lapsedplanning Plans Action RoadCorridor City Etruria and Centre Hospital/listed buildings on site on Hospital/listed buildings as Royalfully developed StokeSite University infrastructure Constraints/need Environmental for Modestmarket interest/Possible contamination/Financialviability issues ground ground/Potential toincompatibleuses/uneven Proximity uses/Financialviability Constraints/Proximitytoincompatible Lackofmarket interest/Environmental Constraints Lackofmarket interest/Environmental incompatibleuses/Financialviability issues Limitedmarket interest/Proximity to incompatibleuses Limitedmarket interest/Proximity to Constraints Lackofmarket interest/Environmental Constraints/irregularshape Lackofmarket interest/Environmental currentlywhichis underway lattermayaddressedschemebythe be environmentalconstraintsand thealthough suffersofdevelopmental Site fromanumber tovacatewere Sainsbury's ifeven supermarketuseretail may and in remain currentlycomprises Site aSainsbury's network restricts bridge access tostrategic road Constraints/Narrowweight&restricted Lackofmarket interest/Environmental bridge Constraints/Narrowweight&restricted Lackofmarket interest/Environmental uses/EnvironmentalConstraints toincompatible Proximity problematic likely istobe access No sitecreatingtotheand thispoint Lackofmarket interest/pooraccess Limitedmarket interest Barriers to DeliverytoBarriers Medium term Medium term Short/Medium term Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Medium/long term Medium term Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Medium N/A Deliveryfor Timescale B8/B1a & B1c & B8/B1a B1/B2/B8 ofB1c element an including use mixed Residential-led B2/B1c element smallB1 including use mixed Residential-led B1a/B1c ofelementsmall including use mixed Residential-led B1c B1/B2/B8 B8/B2/B1c B8 B1a,or B1c B2/B8 B2/B8 scheme partofmixed-use OfficesasB1c& B1c B8/B2/B1 B1a research B1a/Medical PotentialUses OverallScore Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Good Good Good Good Good Poor Poor remediation may remediation marketdeter interest accesswith no Costs point. associated and withlevelling andUneven,fields vacant byopen sitebordered largely transport strategicpublic and networkroad accesssitethehas Otherwise good development. to thissite affects levelling Backfillingand viabilitythe of development necessary towould extensive remediation prior strategictothe networkroad asas well services, however area,aresidential Lyingsitethein hasaccess very good todevelopment work remediation likelyprior Vacantestablishedwithinestate, industrial land withbut average access.Access servicestolabour,transport public isand strategicnetworkroad withvehicular butrelatively poor very closetothehousing areaincluding surrounding use Mixed aConservation siteArea. in Cleared marketemploymentinterestdevelopment apurely for character, in residential appearslittletogenerate conservation area, overwhelminglywhichis Surrounding services/amenities closestrategictothelying despite networkroad local and Necessarylimitssite'sthemarket remediation appeal, accesswhichhas good strategictothe networkroad Remediationcosts constrain market thisforsitedemand knownenvironmentalconstraints Radial wider Parksitethemayalthough addressthe siteofissuesshapedconstrained byanumber Irregular transport servicespublic and accessGood uses. B1a/B1c/B8for developed tolabour, 1980ssupermarket withbutpotential thetobe funding. EZ overcomepossible despite very difficultbe interchange) will towhichconsiderwe closeA500/A527tothesite the (despite interest being in Localaccess environmentalconstraintsand marketlimit funding. thesealthoughmay overcome with EZ be thissite(despite its A500/A527)totheclose proximity Variousconstraints currentlymarketthe limit interest in transportgood is environmentalconstraints accessalthough topublic sitewithLarge, accesssloping and irregular-shaped and Howeverlocalaccesssitetheconstrained is bypoor accessstrategictothe transport.network road public and withareagood locatedmixed-use siteProminently in significantly improved environmentalconstraints. access Site tobe needs Vacantknownsite developmentalor with no services access fromgood strategictothe network,road & labour sitewest;Disusedtotheflanked byhousing benefits siteafunctioninghospitalcomprising developed Fully GeneralComments use Consideremploymentfor employmentuse Donotconsider for employment withelementanof Consider use mixed for employment withelementanof Consider use mixed for employment withelementanof Consider use mixed for employment withelementanof Consider use mixed for use Consideremploymentfor use Consideremploymentfor use Consideremploymentfor employment including uses varietyof Considerallocating a for employmentuse Donotconsider for use Consideremploymentfor employmentelementof withreasonable a Consider use mixed for use Consideremploymentfor use Consideremploymentfor employment withelementanof Consider use mixed for employmentuse) healthcarefor (Retain / use Employment Donotconsider for Recommendation NL10 NL39 NL36 NL43 NL4 NL19 NL40 ST27 ST21 ST59 ST31 ST43 ST41 ST24 ST6 LOCAL PLANALLOCATIONS SUPPLY OFEXISTING EMPLOYMENT SPACE Newcastle under Lyme Newcastle under

Reference Former Wolstanton Colliery Stock Yard, West Ave, WolstantonWolstanton Colliery Former Ave, West Stock Yard, StationKidsgroveRd, RowhurstChesterton Close, ChemicalLane Site mainline),of Chatterley Chatterley Valley (east LondonLand at Road Chesterton KeeleScience University3, KeeleParkPhase of House,GSHLane,Forge Etruria RiversideCampbell Parkoff Road Fenton DiamondKingSt, Works, Gimson NorthCartlichof Street Clarence Former School,Primary St Sampson BroadArea Street CockshotSidings, Shelton New SheltonRd, NewsteadTrading Estate SiteName Total Area (ha) Area Total 18.73 28.73 12.94 4.58 0.91 2.56 6.46 9.27 0.15 2.68 8.94 0.43 0.74 2.85 0.8

Estimated Net Developable 14.50 11.65 2.38 0.91 3.50 2.56 5.49 0.00 0.15 0.80 2.68 5.55 0.43 0.74 0.00 Area (ha) Allocated Site Allocated (Vacant Site Allocated Land) AllocationLocal Plan AllocationLocal Plan AllocationLocal Plan AllocationLocal Plan AllocationLocal Plan VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand VacantLand CarPark site Vacant(non-B-Class) Existing Land/ VacantLand VacantLand

Site Status

Very Good Very Good Average Good Very Good Very Good Poor Average Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Average Average Strategic Access

Average Poor Average Average Good Average Very Good Average Good Good Good Good Good Average Average Local Access

Average Good Poor Very Poor Very Poor Average Average Average Average Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Good Average Proximity to Labour & Amenities/Services

Good Average Very Good Good Good Average Very Good Very Good Good Average Poor Average Good Poor Average Compatibility with Adjoining Uses

Development & Very Poor Poor Poor Poor Average Good Good Good Good Average Poor Good Very Good Very Poor Poor Environmental Constraints

Average Poor Poor Average Average Average Very Good Good Good Poor Poor Poor Average Poor Very Poor Market Attractiveness Belt Greenthe in Situated areas) regenerationpriority (includingcontribution to Planning Factors SPD Area SPD Valley Enterprise Etruria LocalMinerals Plan Staffs'Stokeand SP1 Policy StrategySpatial Core SP1 Policy StrategySpatial Core permission LapsedPlanning permission LapsedPlanning permission Lapsedplanning Permission Planning Lapsed/ Zone Enterprise CeramicsValley 9; and7 Policies StrategySpatial Core permission Lapsedplanning (PolicyDP4) Plan Action Area Corridor Road Etruria and Centre City/9 and7 Policies StrategySpatial Core Proximity to incompatible uses/Irregular toincompatibleuses/Irregular Proximity Constraints Lackofmarket interest/Environmental narrowed by A500 road widening byA500road narrowed site/siteshaped maybeIrregular further Lackofmarket interest Lackofmarket interest/historic landfills sitethe may Mural underlie Etruria area risk siteacoalfieldofthe withinhigh Partis lackofmarket interest relativelylikely istobe gradual parktake-upScienceso ofemployment land identified None identified None Lackofmarket interest Lackofmarket shapeinterest/irregular asused acar park Limitedmarket interest -site currently being usesiteofthecurrently Partis in siteshaped Barriers to DeliverytoBarriers Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Medium term Medium/long term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Medium term Short/Medium term Short term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium Deliveryfor Timescale high calibre B8 B8 calibre high potentially or B1 B1/B2/B8 B1/B2/B8 B2/B8 B8 recyclingcentre awastetobecome likleybut B1/B2/B8 B1a/B1c B1a B1a B1/B8 B2/B8 B1a B1a B1/B2/B8 B1c/B8 PotentialUses OverallScore VeryGood VeryPoor Average Average Average Average Average Average Good Good Good Good Good Good Good potentially be used for freightforpurposes usedpotentially be accessstrategictothe networkroad could and fromBenefitsvery good shape. byits irregular reduced site,areathinofwhich islong, developable theA apossibilityisfreightdevelopment and very is good accessstrategictothe transportnetwork road public and cleared, allocatedA sitewith arestrictive shapealthough strategictransport.network road public and estatepartindustrialofan access withgood and tothe shaped, siteshistoric landfill irregular whichform Two poor. is networkaccessalthough toservicestransport public and strategictothecloseproximity site in road Undeveloped workmaynecessary be remedial potentialalthoughthefreight foruseand road sitewithaccess very good Undeveloped strategictothe visible with(forsignsarecyclingofredevelopment facility) siteAllocatedvery closestrategictothe networkroad constrainedbyarestrictive use permissible strategicthe parktheandis network road poor is knownenvironmentalconstraints. no However, access to University atwithFully-serviced land Keele development constraintsnearbyservices. no and established employmentsitearea,in Small someaccess environmentalconstraints. localaccess. good knownand developmental or No sitestrategicwith excellent Brownfield transport links services/amenities strategicnetwork,road localand labour relativelyand (long narrow),closetothe lying itdespite shapeMarket site'sbytheirregular interest hampered is CeramicsValley EZ. assite adevelopmentthewithin Identified good. network,transport, localservicespublic and labour is accessareaalthough developable strategictothe road electricityshapeand restrictsite'sirregular pylon itsThe officefordemand unknown spacethis area in in ofcentreknownsite constraints with no Edge although strategicthe networkroad officecalibre accommodation withaccessvery good to site,utilised situated suitable high Well for under but access good tonearbyservices A500theand constrainssiteofthedevelopmentwhichotherwise has work remediation possible shapeand site's uneven The outskirtsthe on Belt ofStokeGreenthe located in Littlesite market undeveloped largelyfor demand GeneralComments use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Consideremploymentfor use Consideremploymentfor use Consideremploymentfor use Consideremploymentfor employment withelementanof Consider use mixed for employment withelementanof Consider use mixed for available becomes site if use Consideremploymentfor employmentuse Donotconsider for Recommendation NL16 NL14 NL30 NL23 NL24 NL38 NL42 NL3 NL12 NL21 NL37 NL34 NL18 NL41 NL5 CALL FOR SITES CALL FOR PERMISSION PLANNING EXTANT WITH SITES EMPLOYMENTSITES EXISTING WITHIN LAND VACANT FUTURE SUPPLY OF EMPLOYMENT SPACE OFEMPLOYMENT FUTURE SUPPLY

Reference Landadjoining (J16)M6 A500& HighChesterton Carr, LowlandsRoad,Ravensdale Road andA500 Land Alsager off Newof Land DevelopmentS&E to KeeleSite, LandLinley off Road,Kidsgrove LandKidsgroveandAvenue,Buildings West at SilverdaleRoad,Silverdale Cemetery Park, Business HeathcoteChesterton St, Landbetween Lower Milehouse Lane andBrymbo Road KidsgroveAvenue, West PepperKeele St, HilltopTalkeCentre, Business Newcastle Street, Street/George Water mainline),Chatterleyof ValleyChatterley (west SiteName Total Area (ha) Area Total 22.87 44.15 18.5 3.31 5.05 46.3 2.59 2.69 0.41 2.05 0.35 0.84 0.24 1.5 1.9

Estimated Net Developable 17.15 16.65 12.15 37.53 3.31 4.29 2.59 2.69 0.62 0.41 1.40 2.05 0.35 0.00 0.00 Area (ha) [CallSites]for Vacant Land[greenfield] site(c.1/5 landfill site)ofthe [CallSites]for Vacant formerLand/ [CallSites]Vacantfor Land [CallSites]for Vacant Land[field] [CallSites]for VacantLand VacantLand Land employmentsite Vacant/ Developed VacantLand VacantLand Pharmaceuticals] Vacant site[formerofAAH home storage [disused] Existing employmentsite / employmentsite Existing Site Employment Existing AllocationLocal Plan

Site Status

Poor Very Good Very Good Very Good Poor Poor Poor Poor Good Very Good Poor Poor Poor Good Very Good Strategic Access

Very Poor Very Poor Poor Very Poor Good Average Good Good Average Good Good Average Average Good Average Local Access

Very Poor Very Poor Very Poor Very Poor Average Good Good Average Very Good Good Good Poor Average Very Good Very Poor Proximity to Labour & Amenities/Services

Good Good Average Good Average Average Average Good Average Poor Poor Good Average Poor Good Compatibility with Adjoining Uses

Development & Very Poor Very Poor Very Poor Average Poor Good Good Good Average Poor Good Average Good Average Poor Environmental Constraints

Very Poor Very Poor Very Poor Very Poor Poor Very Poor Poor Average Poor Poor Poor Very Poor Poor Poor Poor Market Attractiveness Enterprise Zone. Enterprise Ceramics ValleyPlan; LocalStokeMinerals Staffs' andSP1; Policy StrategySpatial Core areas) regenerationpriority (includingcontribution to Planning Factors Green Belt Green Belt Green Belt Green Belt Green Belt Green Permission ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning permission ExtantPlanning Belt Greenthe in Situated needed Constraints/infrastructure Environmental needs to be provided/infrastructure tobe needs required siteaccess/Better Poor access A500tothe needed/Accessimprovements required Constraints/infrastructure Environmental Constraints Environmental Infrastructureneeded Park/infrastructureScience required theDependenton take-up of Phase 3of the sitethe on housing Lackofmarket interest/Pressure todevelop Lackofmarket interest Lackofmarket interest viability furtherhousing/scheme toprovide Pressure 3 zone Lackofmarket interest/part flood ofsitein is Lackofmarket interest location/LackIsolated ofmarket interest (fully developed) N/A (fully developed) N/A Barriers to DeliverytoBarriers Long termLong term Medium/long Term Medium term Medium/long termLong term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Medium term Medium N/A N/A term Short/Medium Deliveryfor Timescale B1/B2/B8 B1/B2/B8 B1a/B1c B1/B2/B8 B1a/B1c B1/B2/B8 B8/B1c B1/B2/B8 B1a/B1c B1c,B2,B8 B1/B2/B8 B1c/B8 B1a B1a/B1c/B8 B1/B2/B8 PotentialUses OverallScore VeryPoor VeryPoor VeryPoor VeryPoor Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Good Good Poor labour and amenitiesand labour localaccessat withjunctionofA500poor M6Belt & to RelativelyGreenthe sitein greenfield remote, sloping improvements accessand extensive remediation likelytorequire Belt Greenthe siteLarge,in greenfield irregular-shaped ofadesignatednaturereserve accessstrategic linksmostbutroad siteofthe forms part sitewith very Belt Greengood the sitein greenfield A strategicnetworkroad siteaccess poor totherelation located well in although with Belt Greenthe sitein greenfield Irregular-shaped strategictheand tolabour networkroad fairly is poor accessHowever,and siteBelt thesituatedGreenisthe in facilitate Park. Scienceofthe futuretheexpansion site,Large, greenfield towell-positionedirregular-shaped networkroad poor is estateindustrial existing accessalthough strategictothe siteclosereadydevelopmenttoanforoven Cleared transport. strategicthe networkroad accessible but bypublic estateindustrialan access sitein with poor Brownfield to poor accessstrategictothe networkroad localservices and is environmentalconstraints developmentalor although abusinesswithinknownpark plots ofland with no Three thisarea. in housing additional provide totransportpressureis therepublic althoughand accessarea mixed-usewithgood site in Cleared tolabour transportnetwork public and estatewithaccessvery good strategictothe road establishedsite industrialshaped on Long, irregular access poor strategictothe networkroad Locatedestateindustrialan area amixed-usewith on in strategicnetworkroad access withthepoor and tilerybuildings tolabour sitedilapidated,comprising former Belt Small,Green transport public reasonable. isand labour accommodationspecified).Access(albeit poorly to officeprimaryschoolconverted toprovide Former environmentalconstraints developmentalor areamixed-usewith Small,fully-developedno site in However,work mayremedial necessary be networkfreightuse. road with potential therail andfor Ceramicswithaccessvery Valley good EZ strategictothe the in developmentfor site identified greenfield A GeneralComments employmentuse Donotconsider for employmentuse Donotconsider for employment use Donotconsider for employmentuse Donotconsider for employmentuse Donotconsider for permissionlapses) planning extant (if uses Consideralternativefor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor permissionlapses) planning extant (if uses Consideralternativefor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor uses Consideralternativefor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor use Retainemploymentfor Recommendation NL35 NL11 NL22 NL9 NL13 NL8 NL2 NL32 NL15 NL31 NL6 NL17 NL29 NL26 NL1 NL27 NL33 OTHER SITES OTHER

Reference RedStreet Oak Great Landnorth Audleyof D EardleyArea End HighColliery Carr C EardleyArea End BrunswickNewcastleStreet St/George NelsonPlace (Jubilee-Town SchoolCentre, Baths) Street South Jamage LymedaleHolditch,Park, Chesterton SpeedwayChesterton Stadium, BramptonRoadLand (cornerBramptonRoad at of and Sandy Lane) LowerNewcastle St, LiverpoolRoad,Newcastle Road,Newcastle Barracks RyecroftNewcastleSite, Chesterton Parkhouse Road West, SiteName Total Area (ha) Area Total 33.24 46.51 60.14 21.33 44.75 12.39 3.52 1.79 0.35 0.63 4.85 1.35 0.59 0.82 0.33 3.96 1.1

Estimated Net Developable 24.93 34.88 45.11 13.40 40.28 11.15 3.52 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.35 0.40 0.00 0.00 1.10 3.56 Area (ha) Vacantfield] Land[green VacantLand[farmland] properties] VacantLand[farmland somelisted + VacantLand[field] employmentarea Vacant(non-B-Class) Existing Land/ VacantLand[fields] building (vacant) VacantLand(car park) ex-nightclub/ (c.30%sitearea) Vacant Baths' Land(carpark) 'Jubilee / VacantLand[fields] VacantLand site (non-employment, Existing speedway) Vacantspace]Land[green bar wine Long-termlistedvacant II gradeLand / [non-B-Class] Existing site school] [non-B-Class] Existing site[ex-primary VacantLand(car park) land] open [CallSites]for Vacant Land[green

Site Status

Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Good Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Strategic Access

Very Poor Poor Very Poor Very Poor Average Poor Average Average Poor Poor Average Average Good Good Average Good Average Local Access

Average Average Very Poor Very Poor Very Poor Very Poor Very Good Very Good Good Average Average Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Very Good Good Proximity to Labour & Amenities/Services

Average Good Good Good Good Good Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Good Average Average Compatibility with Adjoining Uses

Development & Poor Very Poor Average Average Poor Average Good Poor Very Poor Average Poor Poor Very Poor Good Good Good Poor Environmental Constraints

Very Poor Very Poor Very Poor Very Poor Poor Very Poor Very Poor Average Very Poor Poor Average Poor Average Average Average Very Good Poor Market Attractiveness areas) areas) regenerationpriority (includingcontribution to Planning Factors Green Belt Green Belt Green Belt Green Belt Green Belt Green Belt Green centreconservation area town NLBC's Within Belt Green conservationarea Road Brampton Within Part of the siteofthedesignatedPartishistoric landfill needed Constraints/infrastructure Environmental fragmentedneeded/Potentially ownership Constraints/infrastructure Environmental Infrastructureneeded across developed adjacent tobe field Infrastructure need needed/Access will road needed Constraints/infrastructure Environmental Infrastructureneeded sizeofsite) Lackofmarket interesttolocation and(due sitecarparking Lackofmarket interest/No possibilityon- for needed Constraints/infrastructure Environmental crestednewts/lack ofmarket interest accessanEstablishing point/risk ofgreat Riskofgreatcrested newts conservationWithin area Lackofmarket interest identified None Lackofmarket access interest/ Poor point identified None Barriers to DeliverytoBarriers Medium/long term Medium/long termLong term Medium/long termLong termLong termLong comment See term Short/Medium termLong term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Medium/long term Short/Medium term Short/Medium Term Medium Deliveryfor Timescale B1/B2/B8 B1/B2/B8 B1/B2/B8 B1/B2/B8 B1/B2/B8 B1/B2/B8 B1 officesinc schemeMixed-use B1/B2/B8 B1/B2/B8 B8/B1c offices B1 officesinc B1/B2 or schemeMixed-use B1/B8 B1a officesinc schemeMixed-use B1a/B1c PotentialUses OverallScore VeryGood VeryPoor VeryPoor VeryPoor VeryPoor VeryPoor VeryPoor VeryPoor Average Average Average Average Average Average Good Good Poor high. high. maynecessary be infrastructureand costs likely tobe are remediation Site Belt. Greenthe sitein greenfield large A constraineddevelopment byseveral factors with Belt Greenthe sitein greenfield Sloping accessconstraints marketdampen demand veryDespite stronglocation infrastructure costs and transport,localservicesand labour strategicthe accessnetwork road poor but topublic withaccessvery good Belt Greenthe siteGreenfieldin to access fromBenefitsgood A34 tothe todevelopment. work prior remedial require could which triangular-shapedBelt Green the siteSloping, in transport,localservicesand labour strategicthe accessnetwork road poor but topublic withaccessvery good Belt Greenthe siteGreenfieldin to marketgenerate site. the interest in locationmayfringe take could meanit sometimeto Itssize andarea. mixed-useofcentre site in edge Small adjacentparkingfor businesses strategicnetwork.However,road sitecarprovides siteshapedwithaccess very good Irregular tothe good However,access strategictothe networkroad very is environmentalconstraints localaccess. poor and with Belt Greenthe siteshapedin Irregular stopsstrategictheand networkroad access poor and toservices closetoseveralalthough bus siteshapedwith siteLong, access irregular constraints present strategicnetwork.Greatroad crested newts may be accessit) withintogood andincorporated tobe tothe AdjacenttoLymedalePark(with Business potentialthe spaceconservation treesandin green area constrainedlossofbylocaloverresidents concerned actsSites spaceofsiteas developmentmay and green be maynecessary. remediation and be archaeologicalHeritageand constraints affect sitethe withaccessvery good strategictothe network.road Mostlyareamixed-useofcentre cleared, site in edge environmentalconstraints developmentalor knownareamixed-usewith no siteSmall,occupied in road towncentrelocation, constrained bycongested access sitewith off-streetreasonableSmall in parkingprovision strategicnetworkroad very is good environmentalconstraints. or development Access tothe centresite knownwith extensiveTown frontage no and maynecessary remediation be strategicnetworkroad employment andalthough accessarea mixed-usewithgood site in tothe Sloping GeneralComments employmentuse Donotconsider for employmentuse Donotconsider for employmentuse Donotconsider for employmentuse Donotconsider for employmentuse Donotconsider for employmentuse Donotconsider for employmentuse withelementanof Consider use mixed for employmentuse Donotconsider for employmentuse Donotconsider for use Consideremploymentfor available becomes site if use Consideremploymentfor employmentuse Donotconsider for availablebecomes employment site if withelementanof Consider use mixed for available becomes site if use Consideremploymentfor available becomes site if use Consideremploymentfor employment withelementanof Consider use mixed for employmentuse Donotconsider for Recommendation NL20 NL28 NL25 NL7

Reference Land at Oaktree Lane,OaktreeTalkeLand at LiverpoolNewRoad/Ashfields Road LandLiverpool off Road,Kidsgrove A EardleyArea End SiteName Total Area (ha) Area Total 59.88 0.89 0.52 0.29

Estimated Net Developable 43.49 0.89 0.00 0.29 Area (ha) VacantLand[grassland] (non-employment, Existing A4)site VacantLand[former landfill] site) on 3floodzone3.5ha and woodland Vacant(w/ land ofancient1.9ha

Site Status

Very Good Very Good Very Good Strategic Access

Average Poor Very Poor Local Access

Average Average Very Poor Proximity to Labour & Amenities/Services

Good Average Good Compatibility with Adjoining Uses

Development & Poor Very Poor Very Poor Environmental Constraints

Good Very Poor Very Poor Market Attractiveness Green Belt Green areas) regenerationpriority (includingcontribution to Planning Factors Green Belt Green needed Constraints/infrastructure Environmental None identified identified None sitedesignatedhistoricand landfill accessrisk areaacoalfield Withinhigh point/ No housing/ siteheavilynear wooded Small Barriers to DeliverytoBarriers Short/Medium term Short/Medium term Short/Medium termLong Deliveryfor Timescale B1/B2 B1a/B1c B1/B2/B8 PotentialUses OverallScore VeryPoor VeryPoor Poor environmentalconstraints known developmentalor with no Belt Green the sitein located prominently butgreenfield Small ASSESSED] usesemployment[NOT land conversiontonon Difficultypre-lettingthis small in office toits site led transportnetwork public good. isand However,likely. remediation access strategictothe road small, A vehicularsiteaccessheavilywith wooded no and infrastructure high. providing envisagedis tobe constraintsaffecting smallparts Cost site.ofthe of withenvironmental Belt Greenthe siteGreenfieldin GeneralComments employmentuse Donotconsider for N/A employmentuse Donotconsider for employmentuse Donotconsider for Recommendation Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent : Joint Employment Land Review

GROSS TO NET ADJUSTMENTS IN EMPLOYMENT LAND ASSESSMENTS

Take-up of employment land is typically recorded on a plot by plot basis, which equates to a net developable area. To be consistent, availability should be measured on the same basis. So for some sites, gross to net adjustments may be appropriate. We have considered each site and estimated the proportion of land likely to be lost to servicing and landscaping, having regard to gross to net ratios achieved on industrial estates and business parks elsewhere in the region. Research by storeys:ssp has shown that ratios range from 100% where a site is in single occupation, to 56% for a business park on a sloping site with large areas set aside for landscaping and sloping banks between development plots. Adjustments appropriate in different circumstances are set out below.

GROSS TO NET RATIOS ADJUSTMENTS FOR EMPLOYMENT LAND

Type Ratio Comment

Serviced plot on industrial estate fronting road. 100%

Area of land that could easily subdivide into serviced 100% plots with road frontage.

Large area of land on industrial estate too big for single 95% Provision for spur road. scheme, having regard to other buildings on estate.

Major undeveloped part of industrial estate or extension 90% Provision for roads and landscaping to one to industrial estate. or more sides.

Small local allocation, requiring infrastructure. 90% Provision for spur road, but landscaping likely to be minimal.

Level site allocated for industrial estate. 85% Provision for spur road and landscaping.

Site allocated for industrial estate where terracing or 80% Provision for spur road and landscaping. bunding required.

Land allocated for business park with high landscape 75% Provision for spur road extensive quality. landscaping, balancing ponds etc.

Land allocated for employment use where a single end 100% All land to be taken by single user, surplus user could be in the market. areas to be kept for its expansion.

9135951v13

Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent : Joint Employment Land Review

Appendix 6 Site Assessment Pro-Formas

9135951v13

Former Johnson Matthey, Whittle Rd, Meir (NLP Ref: ST1)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 8.62 ha Lack of market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 8.19 ha This 8.6 ha site has a prominent frontage onto the A50 (the Uttoxeter Road), and to the east it borders the Meir Park Industrial Estate, while it is flanked by housing to the south and west. The site used to accommodate Johnson Matthey’s main UK factory, but this closed in 2002 and the site has not been used since. Nothing remains of the site’s former buildings and it now suffers from fly tipping and litter issues. However, the site has been identified as suitable for B1, B2 and B8 uses. In 2010 IDI Gazeley obtained detailed consent to redevelop the site in order to provide a distribution scheme amounting to 42,920 sqm1 and the site is being actively marketed. The site has adequate access to labour and there are nearby amenities/services. In addition, within 400m of the site are numerous bus stops, albeit many of these are located in the nearby residential areas.

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

1 As per application ref: 48907/FUL

9932770v7

Meir Depot, Uttoxeter Road, Meir - CFS 21 (NLP Ref: ST2)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.76 ha Lack of market interest/poor access onto the A50 ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.67 ha This brownfield site (1.7ha) is located on the northern side of the A50 (the Uttoxeter Road), opposite the former Johnson Matthey factory site, and is included in this assessment as it was a call for sites submission. The surrounding area is mixed in terms of use. The site is near to the Meir Industrial Estate and several buildings on its eastern border are used by Copeland's Tours, a coach hire firm. To the north, the site is flanked by a railway line, beyond which there is housing. The site features several structures associated with what remains of the Meir Waterworks, but otherwise it is vacant and overgrown. However, no development or environmental constraints were identified and the site has reasonable access to public transport, labour and services/amenities. As it fronts onto the A50 it has very good access to the strategic road network, although if this site were to come forward for employment uses, the site access will need to be improved significantly. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

9932770v7

Wedgwood Estate, Barlaston (NLP Ref: ST3)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 27.99 ha N/A (Currently being redeveloped) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This site is situated within the Green Belt, in attractive open countryside on the southern edge of Stoke. Barlaston Hall (Grade I listed) and St John the Baptist’s Church (Grade II) dominate the landscape and look down over the Wedgwood Estate. The site can be accessed either from the east or west along Wedgwood Drive. Access from the east is restricted as this involves crossing both the West coast mainline (level crossing) and the Trent and Mersey Canal (small bridge). In addition, the complex is a major tourist attraction with more than 175,000 visitors a year, and given these numbers at certain times it seems likely that the access roads may become particularly congested. When the site inspection occurred, work was being progressed on the redevelopment of the complex. The committee report in respect of this2 informs that: a) the redevelopment will include a new 33,430 sqm manufacturing complex (B2), 7,800 sqm as a headquarters (B1 offices), and an enhanced visitor experience amounting to 12,280 sqm; and b) the application site itself relates to approximately 28.5ha comprising the 16.9ha factory site and 11.6ha of greenfield land split across two separate parcels; one 5ha parcel to the north of the factory site and one 6.1ha parcel to the east. Despite its rural location there are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site and, given the scale of this tourist attraction, it is felt to have an adequate access to a range of services/amenities. However, the site has poor access to the strategic road network – the A34 is approximately 2.5km away and is accessed via a residential area. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

2 Application Ref: 55286

9932770v7

Cliffe Vale/Caradon Twyfords Excelsior Wks/Former Slimma (NLP Ref: ST5)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 17.65 ha Excelsior Works and the derelict Twyfords factory ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 11.77 ha have very little market appeal. Part of the site is in Flood Zone 3. Bounded by Etruria Road (the A53) to the north, Garner Street to the west, Shelton New Road (the B5045) and Cliff Vale Place to the south, and by Etruscan Street to the east, this is a long standing employment area that comprises land on both the west and east sides of the mainline. Amounting to 17.65ha, the site mainly consists of B2 and B8 accommodation. Some of this stock is in use, some appears to be underutilised, and some is clearly disused and derelict. The surrounding area contains a wide mix of uses, with housing bordering the site on Etruscan Street. To the west of the railway line, most of the site consists of a parcel of land that formerly accommodated the Armitage Shanks earthenware factory (Excelsior Works) and the large, now derelict, former Twyfords fireclay factory, which fronts onto Garner Street. Excelsior Works primarily fronts onto Cliff Vale Place and, other than a warehouse which is understood to be currently in use by EasyCorp UK for storage purposes (B8), it now predominantly comprises an extensive area of hardstanding. The site’s western flank onto Garner Street is dominated by the Twyfords factory building. However, several warehouse units and an associated yard, immediately to the north of this, are used by Earthmover Tyres. Beyond this, there is a parcel of land that comprises an area of open storage and a series of warehouses (known as the old Slimma buildings), which further to obtaining approval for a change of use to B2 is now understood to be used for manufacturing purposes by Olympus Engineering4. To the south of the Twyfords factory, and also fronting onto Garner Street, there is a plot comprising a warehouse and associated yard that is used by Emery’s, a timber and builders merchant. To the east of the mainline, the site predominantly consists of a large warehouse dating from the 1990s that is used by FC Chambers, another timber merchant. According to VOA data this amounts to 20,654 sqm. This site’s constraints mostly relate to the undeveloped land at Excelsior Works and the Twyfords derelict factory, which are considered to have limited market appeal. The fact that c.3.3ha of the western part of the site is in flood zone 3 will erode this interest even further. More generally, the site is also constrained by the fact that there are no nearby amenities or services. Conversely, the site has adequate access to labour and the undeveloped land at Excelsior Works is considered to have potential for accommodating a siding for rail freight purposes. In addition, there are numerous bus stops within

4 As per planning permission ref: 54320/FUL

9932770v7

400m of the site and the strategic road network is very nearby, although this is onto the A500 between Stoke’s city centre and Etruria, which can experience high levels of congestion at peak times. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for Employment Use

9932770v7

Newstead Trading Estate (NLP Ref: ST6)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 12.94 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental Constraints ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 11.65 ha This site is situated on the Newstead Trading Estate, which is located on the southern outskirts of Stoke. The estate is a long standing employment area that comprises warehousing, office and industrial accommodation, and some this stock appears dated/poorly specified and was vacant when the site inspection occurred. The estate fronts onto the Trentham Road (the A5035) and whilst this road is to a good specification, it is approximately 3.3km to the strategic road network (the A50). The site itself amounts 12.9ha and is located at the end of Alderflat Drive, one of the estate’s internal road. Part of it comprises a waste recycling centre, whilst the remainder presently comprises a field, used for agricultural purposes. The site borders the industrial estate to the north and west, open countryside to the south and housing in the east, and is predominantly located in the Green Belt. Given this and issues relating to the quality of the existing industrial estate, it is felt there would be little market interest in developing this site. There are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site and it has adequate access to labour, although there are no nearby amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

9932770v7

Bridgewater Pottery and surrounding land, Lichfield St (NLP Ref: ST7)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 4.65 ha Limited market interest/Proximity to incompatible ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: uses 4.65 ha Located approximately 600 metres to the south of the city centre, this site flanks the Caldon Canal and is bordered by Lichfield Street (the A50) to the west and by Eastwood Road to the east. The 4.65ha site had been identified for a residential-led development. Outline permission for the ‘Canal Quarter’ scheme has now lapsed but it is noted that this included an unspecified element of B1/B2 accommodation. The site was cleared almost ten years ago and now mainly comprises a series of grassed over plots. The surrounding area is overwhelmingly residential in character and the Caldon Canal is a conservation area. It was considered that that there would be very little market interest in taking this site forward purely for employment use. However, a small provision of offices/light industrial units may be a viable option in another residential-led mixed scheme. No development or environmental constraints were identified. The site has very good access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed use with an element of employment use

9932770v7

West of Ivy House Rd (NLP Ref: ST8)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 3.23 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha

Located on the eastern side of Ivy Road opposite Goodwin Steel Castings - a long established foundry – this 3.23ha site has recently been developed out as a row of four, large industrial units with ancillary office accommodation (B1/B2/B8). This is a high calibre development which features good eave heights and includes a large yard area for loading/unloading, although it seems to have been developed on a speculative basis and it is unclear whether the accommodation is currently in use. The surrounding area is mixed in character and includes, for instance, residential properties and commercial premises on Leek Road (the A52). The site has decent access to Leek Road and it is only a short distance to the strategic road network (the A50). It also has good access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services.

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Good

SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

9932770v7

Gas Holder site, Etruscan St (NLP Ref: ST9)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.94 ha Limited market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.94 ha Located on the west side of Etruscan Street, this is a disused, overgrown site (0.94ha) that previously contained a gas holder. The surrounding area has a mix of uses. The western side of Etruscan Street comprises industrial stock, notably the large premises of FC Chambers (see ST5). In contrast, the eastern side of Etruscan Street and adjoining streets comprises a large amount of housing. With the possible exception of the unit occupied by FC Chambers, the quality of this industrial stock appears to be generally dated and/or poorly specified. In 2011 outline planning permission was granted to redevelop the site to provide 12 industrial (B1c/B2/B8) units here, in a scheme amounting to 3,720 sqm. However, it is considered that the lack of market interest in this area has prevented this scheme from being developed. While the nearest strategic road network is less than 1 km from this site, this is onto the A500 between the city centre and Etruria, which suffers from congestion at peak times. The site is also constrained by the absence of nearby amenities or services. Nevertheless, local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Hewitts, Victoria Rd, Fenton (NLP Ref: ST10)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.06 ha Site may come forward as a metal recycling facility ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha (Sui Generis)/Lack of market interest This site amounts to 2.06ha (gross) and is situated within the established Fenton Industrial Estate, alongside the A50 (the Victoria Road). The site was formerly used by Hewitts Ceramics, and does not appear to have been in employment use since this closed around 14 years ago. Nevertheless, in 2014 planning permission was granted to use the site as a metal recycling and end-of-life vehicle (ELV) processing facility (Sui Generis)5. The site has adequate access to labour and there is a bus stop within 160m of the site entrance which provides regular services to Hanley, Fenton, Longton, Normacot, Meir and Blythe Bridge. However, the site is constrained by its long and irregular shape, its poor access onto the A50 (which was particularly busy when the inspection occurred), and by the fact that there are no nearby amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

5 As per application ref: 56454

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Sideway/Radial Park - CFS14 (NLP Ref: ST11)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 25.86ha Environmental constraints but these may be ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 3.3 ha addressed by the scheme which is underway Situated in a low-lying valley to the south of the City near to the A50/A500(T) interchange, this irregular shaped brownfield site was a call for sites submission and amounts to 28.9ha. The vast majority of the site that was proposed during this process relates to the land making up the Radial Park site (25.9ha), which is now being developed. What remains (3.3ha) takes the form of two further, triangular shaped, undeveloped plots to the west of this site. The site borders existing employment uses to the north whilst the Trent and Mersey Canal (which is a Conservation Area) runs along the eastern boundary, beyond which there is the mainline then another employment site – see ST16. It borders open fields to the south and west. Around 39% of the site identified during the call for sites process is located within Flood Zone 3, and all of the land that is susceptible to this flooding forms part of the Radial Park site. In addition, c2.2ha of the Radial Park site is designated as historic landfill. It is presumed that as part of bringing the Radial Park site forward, appropriate action would have been taken to mitigate these risks. The scheme that is being developed here will comprise a large distribution unit (B8) amounting to c. 49,580 sqm and 14 units (within use classes B1C/B2/B8) intended for SMEs. It will occupy approximately 13.34ha, whilst the remainder (c12.52 ha) will be set aside for new habitat creation and landscaping.6 Consequently, it is assumed that the maximum amount of land which could come forward for employment use here is 16.4ha. While the site is considered as having adequate access to labour there are no nearby amenities/services. And even though there are 5 bus stops within 400m of the site only one of these is accessible - the others are located to the east of the canal and the mainline. However, local access is unconstrained and the site has good access to the strategic road network. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

6 All the details stated here are set out in supporting document for application ref: 54192

9932770v7

Trentham Lakes North (NLP Ref: ST12)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 5.92 ha Lack of market interest/Proximity to incompatible ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 5.33 ha uses This undeveloped site is situated in the northern part of Trentham Lakes next to an established cluster of B2/B8 warehouses which have been developed relatively recently and are of good specification - with large yards and ample space for car parking, decent internal roads and exceptionally good access to the strategic road network. The 5.9ha site would extend this provision eastwards and southwards and benefits from extant planning permission for the erection of warehouse buildings (B8)7. Accordingly, the site is being marketed as a commercial development opportunity. However development here is clearly constrained by the nearby housing estate, which flanks the site on its eastern border. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. While the site is considered as having adequate access to labour there are no nearby amenities/services. There are however numerous bus stops within 400m of the site. The site also has extremely good access to the strategic road network (the A50).

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

7 As per permission ref: 39499/RES

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Building 94F, Stone Road, Trent Vale (NLP Ref: ST13)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.67 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This small parcel of land (0.67ha) comprises an industrial unit and is situated on the site of the Michelin manufacturing plant. The building is used for ancillary purposes by Michelin. The area surrounding the site is mixed in terms of use and whilst this notably includes the large Michelin plant there is also housing nearby. In 2013 permission was granted to sub-divide the existing warehouse into three units and to change its use from light industrial (B1c) to mainly research and development (B1b), resulting in a modest change of floorspace – an increase from 1,920 sqm to 2,120sqm8. Access to this particular site was restricted when the site inspection occurred and there is no evidence to establish if this permission has been implemented, or not. No development or environmental constraints were identified. Local accessibility to the site is unconstrained and it is very well located in order to access labour and local amenities. In addition, it is approximately 0.4km to the A500 and as such the site has excellent access to the strategic road network. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

8 As per permission ref: 55680/FUL

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City General Hospital/University Hospital of North Staffs - CFS 27 (NLP Ref: ST14)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 23.96 ha Site fully developed as Royal Stoke University ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha Hospital/listed buildings on site Amounting to 23.9ha, this site is included in this assessment as it was a call for sites submission. The site, which is situated in a predominately residential area, is fully developed and comprises the various the buildings that make up Staffordshire's biggest hospital, now known as the Royal Stoke University Hospital. When the site was visited it was noted the hospital was very busy, although local access is viewed as being relatively good. The hospital is operated by the University Hospital of North Midlands NHS Trust who has put in place an extensive PFI modernisation programme, which is now nearing completion9. This modernisation programme has included the development of a number of new buildings for clinical purposes at the site, as well as relocating functions to the site which had previously been carried out at the nearby, now closed North Staffordshire Royal Infirmary. Given the scale of this programme it can only be concluded that the NHS Trust intends to operate a major hospital at this site for many years to come. Since this has involved consolidating additional activities on an already seemingly fully utilised site it also implies that it is highly unlikely that the NHS Trust has set aside any land here that is surplus to its requirements and potentially suitable for health care related employment use. The potential for any employment use here is also constrained by the fact that there are four grade II listed buildings on this site (including a chapel and a former school house). A range of services and amenities are available within the hospital. The site fronts onto the A34, so has very good access to the strategic road network. In addition, it is exceptionally well serviced by public transport – there are numerous bus stops within 400m. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for Employment use / (Retain for healthcare use)

9 As detailed here: http://www.uhnm.nhs.uk/aboutus/Pages/Our-Hospital.aspx

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Wilson Rd, Hanford - CFS 13 (NLP Ref: ST15)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 69.98 ha Proximity to incompatible uses/Environmental ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 52.49 ha constraints Located in the south-western outskirts of Stoke this 70ha site was a call for sites submission that was cited as being suitable for a variety of uses including housing, open space, sports facilities and employment uses (office and industrial). The site mainly consists of open fields used for farming and recreational purposes, and includes the grounds used by Trentham Rugby Union Football Club. It has an irregular shape and is mostly sloping. In the north it borders the Sideway/Radial Park site (see ST11) and to the east the site borders housing, the Trent & Mersey Canal and the mainline, beyond which is Trentham Lakes South (refer to ST16); whereas to the south and west, it is flanked by residential areas. Given the railway line, the Trent & Mersey Canal and the extent by which housing borders this site, the issue of providing adequate site access will clearly be problematic, and for this reason local access to this site is considered to be poor. The site also features a number of environmental constraints in that a small part of it (c. 1.8ha) is designated as historic landfill and c.6.2ha is located within Flood Zone 3. Nevertheless, such issues could potentially be overcome. In the medium/long term there is the possibility of providing a mixed-use scheme here as outlined in the call for sites submission. While the site is considered to have an adequate access to labour there are no nearby amenities/services. In addition, even though the strategic road network (the A500) is only short distance away, access to this is via residential streets and accordingly this is considered to be average. However, there are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed use with a reasonable element of employment

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Trentham Lakes South, incl. plot at Trentham Lakes North (NLP Ref: ST16)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 65.72 ha Part of site is within Flood Zone 3/ encroachment of ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 20.7 ha housing & retail This 65.7ha site has only partially been developed out, mainly on its eastern and southern flanks. The development which has occurred on its eastern side consists of two large distribution units (B8); a cluster of smaller warehouse units (used as trade counters in scheme appropriately called Trade Park); and adjoining this, an office scheme called Trentham Business Quarter, which comprises small office units. All of this employment stock has been developed relatively recently and is of a good specification. Alongside this, the southern part of the site features housing and retail. This housing provision has been extended by the development of 132 new homes on a plot that had previously been identified as suitable for employment use. The site is well serviced in terms of infrastructure, with plots easily accessed from Stanley Matthews Way which extends the full length of the site. With the exception of the housing that has either been completed or is currently under construction in the southern part of the site, the vast majority of the western part of the site (i.e. to the west of Stanley Matthews Way) comprises undeveloped land, though this has been cleared and is actively being marketed as a commercial development opportunity. In addition, there is an undeveloped plot on the eastern side of Stanley Matthews Way, though again this has been cleared and is actively being marketed as a commercial development opportunity. Potentially a rail siding for freight use could be developed here. The site has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network and public transport. It also has reasonably good access to services/amenities and local access is unconstrained. While no development constraints were identified c.12.9ha of the site (most of which is towards the south) is located within flood zone 3. As regards to the housing and retail on this site, according to our calculation this occupies c. 24.2ha. If this is discounted, it will imply that there is c. 41.4ha of employment land at this site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

9932770v7

South Car Park, Stanley Matthews Way, Trentham Lakes (NLP Ref: ST17)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.74 ha Potentially connected with plans to upgrade the ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.74 ha stadium car park This 0.74ha site is situated on the western side of Stanley Matthews Way next to an Aldi car showroom, whilst immediately to the south and west of the site is some of the car parking for the nearby Britannia Stadium. The surrounding area has largely been built out for B1, B2 and B8 uses along with retail and car showrooms. However, the site has been cleared but is yet to be developed. This may be due to the fact that the site is connected with plans to extend and reconfigure the stadium’s car park and provide a new pedestrian underpass – the outline permission for this allows the site to be developed as B1, B2, B8 or as a car showroom10. Potentially the complexities relating to this could be preventing this site from coming forward. It has prominent frontage onto Stanley Matthews Way and very good access to the strategic road network, though when the assessment occurred it was not being marketed as a development opportunity. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. While the site is considered as having adequate access to labour there are no nearby amenities/services. However, there are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

10 As per permission ref: 55489

9932770v7

Fenton Quarry (NLP Ref: ST18)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 15.04 ha Proximity to incompatible uses/uneven ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 13.54 ha ground/Potential ground contamination/Financial viability issues Large waste landfill site accessed via Lordship Lane and operated by Larfarge Tarmac /Biffa Waste Services. To the south, the site is bordered by an established employment area on City Road, whereas to the north it borders St Peter’s Academy School and Fenton Manor Sports Complex. Amounting to 15.04ha the site is licenced for inert waste. It is noted that in 2008 Tarmac was fined for exceeding the permitted amount of waste at this site11 and accordingly if it was to come forward for B-use employment there would be a need to investigate this breach and if necessary take appropriate action before any development work occurs. Moreover, a good amount of earth has been excavated on this site which, as a result, is mostly uneven - the cost of backfilling and levelling this will constrain the probability of it been developed as an employment site. The site is also constrained by having poor access to services and amenities. Having said that, it has good access to the strategic road network (the A500) and within 400m of the site there are numerous bus stops. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

11 See: http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/16k-fine-bosses-waste-breach/story-12558601-detail/story.html

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Site off Whieldon Road (NLP Ref: ST19)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 5.13 ha Long/thin site currently mainly being used to access ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: adjacent site 3.7 ha This site has a relatively narrow frontage onto Whieldon Road, and is flanked by the Trent & Mersey Canal to the west and a railway line to the east. While the site is situated in a long established employment area, there is housing immediately beyond the railway line. Vehicular access to site is via Whieldon Road - beyond a secure gate, this road appears to extend the full length of the site, on either side of which there are dense trees. A notice on the gate informed that the site was used by Axiom Rail, a firm specialising in the rail freight bogies and suspension. Viewing the site in Google Earth established that there is a clearing between the road and the embankment, which potentially is being used for storage. It also indicated that the access road leads onto an adjoining plot of land directly to the south of the site comprising railway sidings and a number of buildings, and it is here where Axiom Rail is understood to be based. While the site amounts to 5.13ha, its irregular shape (long and thin) significantly reduces the likely net developable area and the fact that it features an embankment may reduce this further. Furthermore, there are no nearby services/amenities. Nevertheless, local access is unconstrained and the site has very good access to the strategic road network (the A500). In addition, there are 6 bus stops within 400m of the site. In summary, the characteristics and development constraints pertaining to this site may limit its potential for coming forward for employment purposes. However, the site seems to be intrinsically linked to the plot immediately to its south and in this respect it could possibly have greater employment value in the future – for instance, by accommodating a future expansion of Axiom Rail. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

9932770v7

Land at Whieldon Rd - CFS 5 (NLP Ref: ST20)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.97 ha Very limited market appeal/ A large amount of the ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha site is within Flood Zone 3 Fronting onto Whieldon Road, and situated between the A500 and the Trent & Mersey Canal, this site totals 2.97ha and was put forward through the call for sites process. It comprises a dated looking warehouse and associated yard and whist a large board extends across the front of the property informing “cheap warehouse up to 11,000 sqft” it clearly remains in business use, though it is considered to have very limited market appeal. The site is situated in an established employment area with no incompatible uses immediately adjoining it. It is low lying and c.75% of the land here falls within flood zone 3. In addition, there are no amenities or services nearby. However, local access is unconstrained and the site has adequate access to labour. It also has very good access to Queensway (the A500), which forms part of the strategic road network, and there are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

9932770v7

Riverside Park off Campbell Road (NLP Ref: ST21)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.8 ha None identified ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.8 ha This vacant brownfield site is situated next to an existing office development, called the Riverside Centre. The Riverside Centre was progressively built out in a scheme that ultimately was intended to include office accommodation on this site. Presently, the Riverside Centre comprises six high calibre buildings and occupiers here include Axa Solutions, Barclays and Thomas Vale Construction. The 0.8 ha site is understood to be occasionally used for overflow car parking when a football game is played at the nearby Britannia stadium but it is otherwise unused. Planning permission was granted in August 2012 for the phased development of three office buildings on the site, collectively amounting to 3,792sqm12, which if implemented would have increased the office provision at the Riverside Centre to 6,813sqm, however, this has now lapsed. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. Access to labour is adequate, although there are no nearby services/amenities. However there are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site and it has excellent access to the to the strategic road network (the A500). OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

12 As per applications ref: 53753 and 53754

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The Campbell Centre (NLP Ref: ST22)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 5.3 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This site (5.3ha) fronts onto Campbell Road near to the A500/A50 interchange and comprises a single, substantial industrial building known as the Campbell Centre, which was built in 1979 and amounts to 39,948 sqm. The site is situated in an established employment area, although it adjoins housing in the north. To the west and south the site is flanked by the much more recently developed Prologis Park, which comprises large distribution sheds. The Campbell Centre had been used by Michelin for storage and distribution purposes ancillary to its nearby factory, but the tyre manufacture vacated the property in 2007. It is understood that the building stood vacant for a long period further to this but it is now used by WRS for pallet and storage purposes. The building looks dated/ poorly specified, especially when compared to the standard of Prologis Park. While this may satisfy WRS’s current occupational requirements for affordable accommodation in the next 5-10 years, the property may require an extensive refurbishment or the site may need to be redeveloped. The site has adequate access to labour, although there are no nearby amenities/services. However, local access is unconstrained and the site has excellent access to the strategic road network. In addition, it is well provided in terms of public transport given that there are 7 bus stops within 400m of the site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

9932770v7

Metaltek/Meighs Castings, Campbell Rd - CFS 10 (NLP Ref: ST23)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.16 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This site is located in a part of Stoke where residential properties and industrial accommodation are in close proximity to one another. It amounts to 1.16ha (gross) and is included in the assessment as it was a call for sites submission, which proposed that the site could be suitable for housing, offices and retail. Notwithstanding this, the site benefits from extant planning permission for two 40 tonne capacity silos13. The site is presently used by Meighs Castings and it is situated in an industrial area on the east side of Campbell Road (the A5006), which mainly consists of warehouses and industrial accommodation. There are two buildings on the site; a dated two storey office building fronting onto Campbell Road which appears to be underutilised, behind which is a larger industrial building that Meighs Castings presumably uses for manufacturing and storage. The site has reasonably good access to labour, although while it is in very close proximity to a takeaway and public house (the Plough Inn), access to amenities and services is viewed as being relatively poor. Local access to the site is unconstrained and it has very good access to public transport and the strategic road network (the A500). However, c.84% of this site is designated as historic landfill. In summary, this is considered to be a reasonable employment site for B2/B8 activities. Whilst this use could be constrained because of nearby housing, the prospects of it being redeveloped for retail, offices and/or residential is considered to be inappropriate.

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for B2/B8 employment use

13 54331/FUL

9932770v7

Cockshot Sidings, Shelton New Rd, Shelton (NLP Ref: ST24)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.85 ha Proximity to incompatible uses/Irregular shaped ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha site This 2.85ha site fronts onto the southern side of Shelton New Road, is irregular in shape and has a long western border which is flanked by the mainline. To the north, the site borders both a recently completed housing scheme and to the east is borders the Trent and Mersey Canal, beyond which Hanley Cemetery is located. Most of the land here accommodates the Cockshot Sidings Recycling Centre, an established waste landfill site. This section of the site consists of uneven ground which will need to be levelled if the site were to come forward for employment use. The remainder of the site is disused, but previously accommodated a railway siding which potentially could potentially be reinstated and used for freight purposes if the site was to become available. However, such a use may now be incompatible with the residential development to the north. There are nearby services and amenities and the site has reasonable access to labour. In addition, the site has reasonable access to the strategic road network (the A500) and is within 400m of numerous bus stops. However, the irregular shape of the site significantly reduces its net developable area. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use if site becomes available

9932770v7

College (Snow Hill Building) (NLP Ref: ST25)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.22 ha N/A (Fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha Located approximately 1km to the southeast of the city centre, this 0.22ha site comprises a detached four storey building, possibly dating from the 1980s. Previously the building was used as a further education college but subsequent to obtaining a change of use permission14 it now provides 883sqm of B1 office15, which appeared to be vacant when the assessment occurred. While the surrounding area is mixed in terms of use and comprises other office buildings, business demand for office premises in this locality is perceived to be limited. Nevertheless, the site has a prominent frontage onto Snow Hill, and is considered to have reasonable access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services. No developmental or environmental constraints were identified. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

14 As per planning permission ref: 46737/FUL 15 As per letting brochure available at: http://www.rorymack.co.uk/properties/snow-hill-stoke-on-trent- staffordshire/

9932770v7

Chatterley Valley (Area 6): Tunstall Sewage Works (NLP Ref: ST26)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 10.69 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 9.62 ha Constraints/Narrow & weight restricted bridge restricts access to strategic road network This site encompasses 10.69ha and is included in this assessment as it was a call for sites submission. It formerly comprised the Tunstall sewage works, but all that remains of that now are a number of areas of hardstanding. The site can be accessed from Chemical Lane and Harewood Street, with the former providing very good access to the strategic road network, via the A500/A527 interchange. However, Chemical Lane has a pinch point where it crosses the mainline, as the bridge is narrow and restricted to 3.5 tonnes. Furthermore, just beyond the bridge is an HGV fuel station which can be particularly busy at times with lorries queuing up for fuel and this may restrict access to the site. There are no bus stops within 400m of the site and it is constrained by having poor access to labour and services and amenities. Employment use is further constrained by:-

 Viable reserves of Etruria Marl may potentially underlie this site and, in accordance with the Minerals Local Plan, prior to any development the extent of this needs to be proved and provision made for any necessary extraction;

 Approximately 5.7ha of the site is designated as historic landfill;

 Circa 1.2 ha is located within flood zone 3; and

 A small part of the site (c. 0.3ha) forms part of Westport Lake nature reserve. Previously there was a railway siding here and potentially this could be reinstated and used for rail freight purposes. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

9932770v7

GSH House, Forge Lane, Etruria (NLP Ref: ST27)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.15 ha None identified ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.15 ha This small, undeveloped plot (0.15ha) principally relates to a level, grassed area adjoining GSH House, a two storey high calibre office building occupied by ISS Technical Services (who acquired GSH Group earlier this year16). Currently, GSH House amounts to 1,366sqm of office space17. A planning permission to extend this provision by 623sqm18has now lapsed. The surrounding area comprises office and industrial buildings. Local access to the site is unconstrained. While the nearest strategic road network is only c1.1km from this site this is onto the A500 between Stoke’s city centre and Etruria, which is susceptible to congestion. The site is also constrained by the fact that there no nearby amenities or services. Conversely, access to labour is adequate and there are numerous bus stops within 400m of this site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

16 See - http://www.uk.issworld.com/en-GB/news/news/2015/01/20/iss-uk-limited-acquires-the-uk-ireland- and-european-operations-of-engineering-firm-gsh-group-plc 17 According to VOA data 18 As per permission ref: 52767

9932770v7

Butters Festival Way (NLP Ref: ST28)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.31 ha N/A (Fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This is a small, fully developed, employment site (amounting to 0.31ha), which comprises one of the office buildings on Festival Park. The two storey building has ample off street car parking and is fully occupied by the estate agent Butters John Bee. Festival Park is an established edge-of-centre office location and the calibre of accommodation generally appears to be very good. While the nearest strategic road network is only c1.6km from the site, this is onto the A500 between Stoke’s city centre and Etruria, which is susceptible to congestion. The site is also constrained by the fact that there no nearby amenities or services. Nevertheless, there are two bus stops within 400m of the site.

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Severn Trent Water Depot, Federation Rd, Burslem (NLP Ref: ST29)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.71 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.00 ha Extending to 1.71ha this site is used by Severn Trent Water as its Burslem Depot. It features a two storey depot (B2/B1 offices) alongside which there is a provision for car parking, storage bays and vehicle washing facilities. The site is surrounded by a mix of commercial and residential uses. For instance, a storage and distribution facility is located to the north of the site, whilst the Saddlers Park residential scheme is to the south. There are nearby services and amenities and the site has good access to labour. In addition, the site has unconstrained local access, good access to the strategic road network (the A50), and is within 400m of numerous bus stops. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

9932770v7

Westport Road/Hall Street/Pack Horse Lane, Burslem (NLP Ref: ST30)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.47 ha Limited market interest/ Proximity to incompatible ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.47 ha uses Located on the south side of Hall Street at its junction with Westport, this is a mostly cleared site amounting to 0.47ha, which is mainly being used for car parking. The site is flanked by St. Joseph Church to the west and by a public house to the south, and is to the northwest of Burslem’s town centre, a conservation area which features a modest provision of retail and office accommodation. It is noted that there is an extant permission for the redevelopment of the site to provide a residential led mixed-use scheme that includes a small provision of A2 retail /office accommodation – collectively amounting to 110sqm. 19 Whilst potentially that amount of space could be absorbed by the local market, demand for office accommodation in this area is unproven. Moreover, development of this site is constrained by the adjacent, grade II listed church and the nearby conservation area. Conversely, local access to the site is unconstrained and the site has very good access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for mixed use with an element of employment

19 As per application ref: 51283/OUT

9932770v7

North of Cartlich Street (NLP Ref: ST31)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 8.94 ha Lack of market interest/irregular shape ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 5.55 ha Now promoted as the ‘Tunstall Arrow’, this 8.8ha site is located immediately off the newly formed A527 (the James Brindley Way) and comprises two plots, one to the north road and the other to the south of it. While access points to the site have been provided on either side of the A527, the actual plots are only partly cleared and comprise grassland and areas of scrub. The area surrounding the site is mixed in terms of use and includes housing and the Newfield Industrial Estate, which fronts onto the A50. Permission has been granted to provide mainly industrial accommodation (B2/B8) and this is actively being marketed as a development opportunity by Langtree Developments. However, the fact that an application for effectively this development dates from 199820 gives a clear indication that this has been an undeveloped employment site for many years, although the recent completion of the A527 may generate some momentum for it. Given the work that has been carried out on the A527, it has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network; and it also has very good access to public transport, labour, and local services and amenities. However, it is constrained by its irregular shape. In addition, a high voltage electricity transmission line extends across the plot on the northern side of the road and at least one pylon is sited there – this will limit the net developable area of the site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment purposes

20 As per application ref: 35781/OUT

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Former Brownhills Tileries, Harewood Street, Tunstall (NLP Ref: ST32)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 13.98 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 12.58 ha Constraints/Proximity to incompatible uses This vacant brownfield site is located on the eastern side of Brownhills Road (the A5271), and to the west it is bordered by the Trent & Mersey Canal. To the north it is bordered by Connaught Street and Harewood Street, and to the south by Canal Lane. The surrounding area has a mix of uses. Of particular significance are the Johnson Tiles premises and the ceramics manufacturer Roy Kirkham. Amounting to 13.9ha, the site was once used by Brownhills Tileries, but none of its former buildings remain and currently the overgrown site only features areas of hardstanding. Circa 1.5ha of the site is designated historic landfill which is likely to require remediation. Moreover, its size and location implies that there is likely to be limited market interest in redeveloping this site for employment purposes in its entirety. Conversely, the site has good access to labour, local amenities and services, and within 440m of the site there are numerous bus stops. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed use with an element of employment

9932770v7

Land of High St, Tunstall - CFS 9 (NLP Ref: ST33)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.27 ha

Three sides of the site are flanked by housing ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.17 ha

Amounting to 2.2ha this site is included in this assessment as it was a call for sites submission. It is situated in an industrial area on the east side of the High Street (the A50), though the surrounding area features a significant amount of housing. Immediately to the north of the site is Newfields Timber Yard, whilst to the south is Gorsty Hill Cars, a used car dealer. The site has direct access onto the High Street and formerly comprised a large warehouse and rear yard. The warehouse has now been demolished to create a large development site, which is being marketed as suitable for a residential, mixed-use or commercial development. Given its location the site has very good access to the strategic road network. It also has very good access to public transport, labour, and local services and amenities. In summary, this is considered to be a good employment site, though B2/B8 uses might be considered inappropriate because of the nearby housing.

OVERALL SITE GRADE:

Good

SITE RECOMMENDATION:

Retain for employment use

9932770v7

Chatterley Valley (Area 1) (NLP Ref: ST34)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 3.07 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental Constraints ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 2.92 ha This site lies to the west of Marlborough Way and comprises 3.07ha of undeveloped land which is currently used for grazing. To the east, the site borders the Churchill Factory shop, while on the opposite side of Marlborough Way, and in close proximity to the site, there is a Wickes DIY store. The site is constrained by several factors:-

 A high voltage line extends across the site, which is physically constrained by a large pylon and uneven ground - the site will need levelling and an access road created from Marlborough Way.

 Circa 12% of the site is historic landfill which may need to be remediated.

 As it is situated in the Chatterley area, Etruria Marl may underlie the site - prior to any development here the extent of this will need to be proved and provision made for any necessary extraction.

 There are no nearby amenities/services and no public footpaths from the site to the nearest bus stops on Chatterley Road. Notwithstanding the above, the site forms part of a much wider site which benefits from extant planning permission21 for the creation of a new employment area to provide B1, B2 and B8 units. The A527 is also very close to the site, providing good access to the strategic road network. However, it is also acknowledged that a number of other, more deliverable employment sites are situated in the nearby area. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for Employment Use

21 Application Refs: 47686/OUT and 51067/REN

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Valley Works, Ravensdale, Tunstall (NLP Ref: ST35)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 10.28 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha Accessed from Harewood Street and Watergate Road, this is a fully developed employment site, which is used by Johnson Tiles. The firm used to produce tiles in numerous factories across Stoke until 2001 when it consolidated all of its activities onto this site following a £35 million investment from parent company Norcros PLC22. The site is mainly used for production, storage and distribution purposes, but also comprises the UK head office of Johnson Tiles. A number of buildings immediately to the east of the site are also used by Johnson Tiles –including two warehouses, one of which is used as a factory outlet centre, while the other is used for distribution purposes. Indeed, reviewing Land Registry’s land ownership data leads us to conclude that the valley works site actually totals about 16ha. There are 4 bus stops within 400m of the site, so it has reasonable access to public transport, and it is in close proximity to the A500 and the rest of the strategic road network, via Clay Hills and Chatterely Road. However, the site is considered to be poorly serviced in terms of local amenities and services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

22 As stated on the Johnson Tiles website: http://www.johnson-tiles.com/about/history/

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Chatterley Valley (Area 3) (NLP Ref: ST36)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.05 ha Limited market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.05 ha Totalling 1.05ha this site is located immediately to the south of the Genesis Enterprise Centre. The triangular shaped plot is level and could be developed out quite quickly. However, there is no evidence that it is currently being marketed despite it benefiting from extant planning permission23, as part of a much wider site, for the creation of a new employment area to B1, B2 and B8 units. Given the apparent success of the Genesis Enterprise Centre the plot would be suitable for B1 offices. The site has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network, although it is constrained by having poor access to local services and amenities. Two bus stops are located to the north of the site on Chatterley Road. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

23 Application Refs: 47686/OUT and 51067/REN

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Former Ravensdale Sportsfield, Land off Chemical Lane, Tunstall - CFS 4 (NLP Ref: ST37)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 6.53 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 6.20 ha Constraints/Narrow & weight restricted bridge Amounting to 6.5ha, this is a level parcel of land which is situated in a long standing employment area. It borders the mainline to the west and the Trent and Mersey Canal to the east. Two adjoining plots are vacant, but notably to the south the site borders the premises of Browns Distribution (B2/B8), and beyond the canal on its eastern border are buildings occupied by Johnson Tiles. The site is currently used as a sports field and is accessed from Chemical Lane, which lies within very close proximity to the A500/A527 interchange. However, Chemical Lane has a pinch point where it crosses the mainline, as the bridge is narrow and restricted to 3.5 tonnes. And, just beyond the bridge, is an HGV fuel station which can be particularly busy at times with lorries queuing up for fuel - this may restrict access to the site. There are no bus stops within 400m of the site, and it is constrained by having poor access to labour and services and amenities. In addition, c.95% of the site is designated as historic landfill so remedial work may need to be conducted prior to it coming forward. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

9932770v7

Chatterley Valley (Area 2) (NLP Ref: ST38)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 3.11 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental Constraints ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 2.10 ha Amounting to 3.11ha, this undeveloped site occupies the corner position at the convergence of Reginald Mitchell Way (the A527) and Chatterley Road. On the opposite side of Chatterley Road to the site is the Genesis Enterprise Centre, a 3 storey office building comprising 94 serviced office suites, but it is mostly surrounded by fields. The site slopes and comprises scattered scrub/trees with grassland. Due to the manner of how Reginald Mitchell Way and Chatterley Road have been developed, the site also features relatively steep side embankments on its eastern and southern borders, and this, coupled with the fact that the site slopes, will limit its net developable area. As the site is situated in the Chatterley area, Etruria Marl may underlie the site andthe extent of this would need to be proved prior to any development taking place and provision made for any necessary extraction. There are no nearby amenities/services although two bus stops are located on Chatterley Road to the west of the site. Pending the development of an access road the site offers very good access the strategic road network. Whilst this site is constrained by various environmental and physical factors, and a number of other, more deliverable employment sites are situated in the nearby area, it is considered this site could come forward for employment development over the medium/long-term. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

9932770v7

Land off Scotia Road (NLP Ref: ST39)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.52 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental Constraints ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.37 ha This undeveloped site amounts to 1.5ha (gross) and is situated on the Scotia Business Park, immediately to the west of some new, high quality light industrial units ranging in size from 325 sqm to 980 sqm. This stock has dedicated yards, ample parking areas and appeared to be fully occupied; whilst the site itself is being marketed as being suitable for bespoke design and build options, presumably to extend this provision. The build quality of the adjacent accommodation suggests that there may be strong market interest in this site, although it seems unlikely that development would occur on a speculative basis. Given its location the site has very good access to the strategic road network. It also has very good access to public transport, labour, and local services and amenities. However, c.67% of the site is designated as historic landfill which may require remediation. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

9932770v7

Land between Huntilee Road and Scotia Rd, Tunstall (NLP Ref: ST40)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 9.19 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 8.10 ha Constraints/Proximity to incompatible uses/Financial viability This vacant brownfield site amounts to 9.2ha and has an irregular shape. The site extends from Scotia Road in the west to Sherwin Road in the east, and to the north it borders with Whitfield Greenway (a park), and Huntilee Road. Both Huntilee Road and Sherwin Road are residential streets, whereas the site borders with industrial and retail uses on Scotia Road. Indeed, the extent of this commercial provision, which includes the Dudson factory, Topps Tiles and an Asda store, implies that the site has very limited frontage onto Scotia Road. Currently, vehicular access to the site can only be achieved form Scotia Road and the possibility of supplementing this is restricted to creating new access points in residential areas. Given its location the site has very good access to the strategic road network. It also has very good access to public transport, labour, and local services and amenities. However c.87% of the site is designated as historic landfill and the cost of remediating of this is envisaged to be high. The nearby housing may also imply that certain types of employment activity will be inappropriate. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed use with an element of employment

9932770v7

Broad Street Area (NLP Ref: ST41)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.74 ha Part of the site is currently in use ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.74 ha Located on the north side of Broad Street and flanked by a large Tesco supermarket on the west, this is a large, poorly utilised site that is well situated to accommodate a future expansion of the central business district. Amounting to 0.74ha, the site is level and currently consists of a surface car park, a cleared undeveloped plot and a two storey building fronting onto Clough Street, used by Black Cobra Martial Arts. Land Registry’s land ownership data indicates that the site is made up of three freehold plots, so it is not constrained by fragmented ownership. The site commands a prominent position onto Broad Street and pending the successful letting of the office element of Smithfield, would be highly suited for high calibre office accommodation. As this site is situated in the city centre it has excellent access to labour and local amenities and within 440m of the site there are numerous bus stops. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed use with an element of employment

9932770v7

Central Business District (NLP Ref: ST42)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 3.17 ha Financial viability of developing remaining office ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 2 ha accommodation is dependent on securing rents above the market norm

This site extends to 3.2ha and is bounded by Potteries Way, Broad Street and Warner Street. The area to the north of the site, beyond Warner Street, comprises civic uses including the Potteries Museum and Art Gallery, the City Library, the Magistrates Court and a police station, while the wider locality comprises a mix of uses appropriate to a city centre location including B1 offices, retail, leisure and residential uses. The site is currently being redeveloped to provide ‘Smithfield’, a major office-led mixed-use scheme that is viewed as a key component of regenerating the city centre, which is earmarked to include 48,230 sqm of B1 office space24. When the site was visited development work was well progressed on two high calibre office buildings that have been pre-let to the City Council, which together will provide 18,990sqm of B1 office space. In addition, the marketing of a third office building providing 7,984sqm of office accommodation had just commenced. However, it is noted that the office stock elsewhere in the city centre is generally dated/poorly specified and the low rents this grade of accommodation is likely to command may undermine the financial viability of developing further phases of this scheme. The site has exceptionally good access to labour, local amenities and services, and within 440m of the site there are numerous bus stops and the new bus station. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for Employment Use

24 Note, all figures are as presented in Appendix 2 of the Planning Statement that accompanied the outline application (Ref: 51551/OUT). It is realised that subsequent to this, there has been series of applications for various individual buildings that will form part of Smithfield

9932770v7

Former Clarence Primary School, Sampson St (NLP Ref: ST43)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.43 ha Limited market interest - site currently being used ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.43 ha as a car park Located on the south side of Sampson Street, this 0.43ha site is currently used as a car park. The site is situated very near to the A50 and as such has very good access to the strategic road network. In 2004 permission was granted to provide 1,430 sqm of office accommodation here, although that has now lapsed25. The surrounding area is mixed in terms of use, but notably comprises very little office accommodation. Demand for office space in this area is unproven, but potentially a modest provision of small B1 office units in a residential-led mixed-use redevelopment of this site may be viable a proposition. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. Since the site is within walking distance of the City Centre it has very good access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed-use with an element of employment

25 As per permission ref:43280

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Land off New Century St, Hanley - CFS 23 (NLP Ref: ST44)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.07 ha Nearby manufacturing plant is incompatible with ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha housing in a possible mixed-use scheme. The site is situated in a coalfield high risk area This irregular shaped site amounts to 2.07ha. A call for sites submission proposed the redevelopment of the site to provide a mixed-use scheme including tourist accommodation, sports facilities and office accommodation. Situated on the south side of Century Street the site forms part of Fuchs Lubricants manufacturing plant. The surrounding area is mixed in terms of use, but notably comprises very little office accommodation. Access to Fuchs Lubricants manufacturing plant is restricted and a combination of a perimeter wall and trees completely screens the site from Century Street. However, Google’s aerial mapping reveals that site mainly comprises a two storey office building, a large surface car park and landscaped gardens; and VOA data indicates that this building is used as a head office and comprises 2,154 sqm of office floorspace. This building appears dated and whilst some internal improvements may have been carried out to the accommodation, its specification is now likely to be considered relatively poor. It is clear that the site is also currently underutilised in employment land terms. However, should Fuchs Lubricants relocate its head office, but retain its manufacturing plant in its current location, careful consideration will need to be given to the appropriateness of this call for sites submission. Almost this entire site falls within a coalfield high risk area, and the redevelopment of this site is likely to trigger a need for this to be remediated. Conversely, since the site is within walking distance of the city centre it has excellent access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services. In addition, the site is near to the A50 and as such it has very good access to the strategic road network. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed use with an element of employment if site becomes available

9932770v7

Land at Century Street/Waterloo Rd, Hanley (NLP Ref: ST45)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 7.28 ha Limited market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 5.66 ha Bounded by Waterloo Road to the north, York Street to the east, Century Street to the south and flanked by housing on the west, this site is a call for sites submission, which proposed its redevelopment to provide a mixed-use scheme including B1 office accommodation. The 7.28ha site is disused and overgrown, and given its current condition is felt to have very limited market appeal. The surrounding area is mixed in terms of use, but notably comprises very little office accommodation. Demand for office space in this area is unproven, but potentially a modest provision of small B1 office units in a residential-led mixed-use redevelopment of this site may be viable a proposition. The site is flanked by the A50 in the north and as such it has very good access to the strategic road network. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. Since the site is within walking distance to the city centre it has excellent access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed use with an element of employment

9932770v7

Sainsbury’s, Etruria Rd (NLP Ref: ST46 /LA Ref: CFS22)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.34 ha Site currently comprises a Sainsbury's ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha supermarket and may remain in retail use even if Sainsbury’s were to vacate This site is included in this assessment as it was a call for sites submission. The 2.34ha site prominently fronts onto Etruria Road and comprises a purpose built Sainsbury’s supermarket dating from the 80s. Immediately adjacent to the site are the Century and Octagon retail parks, where other retailers include Sports Direct, BHS and DFS. Sainsbury's continue to trade from the store, but the freehold interest in the site is currently on the market as an investment opportunity26. Given that the marketing particulars for this informs that the site has the benefit of open A1 consent, should the Sainsbury’s close down in the future the site will probably be acquired by another retailer and remain in retail use. Potentially, however, it could be redeveloped to provide B1a\B1c or B8 accommodation. Local access to the site is unconstrained and it has good access to the A50, the nearest strategic road. As the site is within walking distance to the city centre, it has excellent access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider allocating for a variety of uses including employment if site becomes available

26 http://properties.deloitterealestate.co.uk/property-search/investment/scheme/Sainsburys-Stoke-on-Trent.html.

9932770v7

140 Broad Street Hanley (NLP Ref: ST47)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY:N/A (Fully Developed) GROSS SITE AREA: 0.07 ha ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This small site (0.07ha) is located on the east side of Broad Street (A5006) at its junction with Yates Street. Previously there was an office building here, which according to VOA data amounted to 208sqm, although this has since been demolished and a new three storey 282sqm office building is currently being developed in its place. The surrounding area is mixed in terms of character and there are several car showrooms (sui generis use) in close proximity to the site. The former building was occupied by Unite the Union and, given this is not an established office location, it is anticipated that they will also occupy the new scheme. The site commands a prominent position onto Broad Street and has decent access to the strategic road network. In addition, it has good access to labour and local amenities and within 440m of the site there are numerous bus stops. However, in employment terms this site is constrained by its small size. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for Employment Use

9932770v7

Fuchs Lubricants, New Century Street, Hanley (NLP Ref: ST48)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.35 ha None identified ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha Situated on the southern side of Century Street, this 0.35ha (gross) site forms part of Fuchs Lubricants manufacturing plant. The site is near to the A50 and as such it has very good access to the strategic road network. Presently it consists of a dated, poorly specified two storey (B1 office) building and a large service yard. Earlier this year planning permission was granted to refurbish and extend this building, which would result in the office provision here increasing from 786sqm to 2,160sqm27. However, when the site visit occurred there was no evidence that this permission had been implemented. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. Since the site is within walking distance to the city centre it has excellent access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

27 As per permission ref:58015

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Unit 1 & 2, Hot Lane Industrial Estate (NLP Ref: ST49)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.96 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha Amounting to 0.96ha, this site is situated on Hot Lane Industrial Estate and comprises a concrete and floor screed mixing plant, operated by a firm called Mincrete. The industrial estate is well established; where (other than the concrete mixing plant) industrial uses include joinery works, scrap yards and a recycling centre. No development or environmental constraints were identified. The site fronts onto Florida Close, which serves this part of the industrial estate adequately, and local accessibility is considered good. While Holt Lane (from which the site is accessed) is relatively narrow, which may constrain traffic, it is only c. 1.3km to the A50 and accordingly access to the strategic road network is considered to be good. There are no nearby amenities or services, although access to labour is adequate and there are numerous bus stops within 400m. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

9932770v7

Royal Doulton, Burslem (NLP Ref: ST50)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 4.6 ha Limited market interest/Proximity to incompatible ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 4.6 ha uses/Financial viability issues Amounting to 4.6ha this site fronts onto Nile Street in the north west of the City and is now cleared but formerly comprised the Royal Doulton factory, which closed in 2005. The surrounding area is mixed in terms of use and includes nearby housing. The site, which is situated within the Burslem conservation area, was sold onto St Modwen who began site clearance works in 2008 to provide a mixed use schemeto include a new enterprise centre of c. 6,500 sqm (presumably comprising small B1 units and workshops). However, the recession ensured that a start on this never occurred and it is understood that this permission has now lapsed28. No other development or environmental constraints were identified, although the site has relatively poor local access, since Neil Street is a narrow, one way road that is probably unsuitable for HGVs. The site is considered as having good access to a range of local amenities and services, and is just a short distance away from the A50. In addition, the site has very good access to public transport. However, the fact that it is situated within a conservation area, with housing nearby, coupled with high development costs is likely to preclude development of this site for employment use in isolation. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed use with an element of employment

28 As per application ref: 47897/CAC

9932770v7

Holdcroft Honda, Sneyd Street, Cobridge (NLP Ref: ST51)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.72 ha None identified ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.22 ha Located on the north side of Sneyd Street at its junction with Leek New Road (the A53) in Cobridge, this partially developed site (0.72ha) mainly comprises a Honda car showroom/garage. In addition, to the east of the garage building there is a piece of land which is currently disused and overgrown. The site occupies a prominent location on Sneyd Street and the surrounding area mainly consists of industrial uses, although there is some housing to the south and a park to the northwest. Local access is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. There are nearby services and amenities and the site has good access to labour. In addition, the site has good access to the strategic road network (the A50) and is within 400m of numerous bus stops. However, while the Honda car showroom will be a source of local employment, it is a ‘sui generis’ activity. Should Honda vacate this site in the future, given its frontage onto Sneyd Street it may be suitable for B1 or B8 purposes. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

9932770v7

Former Focus DIY, Milburn Road, Cobridge (NLP Ref: ST52)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.64 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This site amounts to 0.64ha (gross) and is located on Cobridge Industrial Estate, which predominantly comprises B2/B8 stock with ancillary office space. The site consists of a steel framed warehouse amounting to 2,582sqm which was previously used by Focus DIY, but was vacant for some time further to the retailer going into administration. In 2013 a change of use to B1/B2/B8 was granted29 and the unit is now occupied as a trade counter by UK Window Systems. The site has ample car parking and a good frontage onto Leek New Road (the A53). Local access is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. There are nearby services and amenities and the site has good access to labour. In addition, the site has very good access to the strategic road network (the A50) and is within 400m of numerous bus stops. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

29 As per permission: 55546

9932770v7

Garth Street, Hanley (NLP Ref: ST53)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.14 ha Possibility of fragmented ownership/Little market ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.43 ha interest This irregular shaped site is situated on the eastern fringe of the city centre. Amounting to 2.14ha, the site extends from Hillcrest Street in the south to Upper Hillchurch Street in the north; and is bordered by Potteries Way (the A50) in the west and by Garth Street/ Grafton Street in the east. The area surrounding the site consists of both commercial/industrial premises – which varies in terms of age, speciation, and size - and housing. The southern part of the site notably features a mainly single storey office building (the head office of Unity, the trade union organisation) and it also includes a small amount of industrial stock, including a warehouse occupied by Speed Electric Services. However, several surface car parks, serving both the city centre and the immediate area, account for most of this site. Land Registry GIS data indicates 26 freehold plots on the site, which gives a strong indication that it may be constrained by fragmented ownership – this issue may significantly erode market interest in this site for employment purposes. Conversely, as the site is within walking distance to the city centre it has excellent access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for alternative uses

9932770v7

East and West Precincts, Hanley (NLP Ref: ST54)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 6.83 ha Major retail-led mixed-use redevelopment of a busy ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha part of the city centre - development of office component is dependent on development of retail space, the success of Smithfields and obtaining vacant possession of this part of the site This site amounts to 6.8ha and is centred on the West and East Precincts, which together with the adjoining, surrounding streets is earmarked to be redeveloped, in a major retail led mixed-use scheme which will include a new bus station, a hotel, and 4,300sqm of office space30. The site is mainly situated to the east of Lichfield Street and is generally bounded by Old Hall Street to the north and Potteries Way (the A50) to the east and south. Outline approval for the scheme was granted in 2009 and since then the focus has centred on providing a new bus station, which was completed in early 2013. Realis Estates (the developer taking this scheme forward), is currently understood to be progressing plans to provide six new retail units on Parliament Row, much of which (including the office provision) is yet to be delivered. While some of the buildings throughout the site are vacant this continues to be a busy part of the city centre. The site is in single ownership and forms a key part of the city centre, which has a diverse range of services and amenities. No development or environmental constraints were identified. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed-use with employment element

30 Details as per outline proposal (48935/OUT)

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Trinity St/Marsh St North, Hanley (NLP Ref: ST55)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.24 ha Limited market interest/Potential financial viability ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.24 ha issues Located on the east side of Marsh Street North at its junction with Trinity Street, this cleared 0.24ha site in Stoke’s city centre is mainly being used as a pay and display surface car park. In 2009 permission was granted to redevelop the site by providing a mixed-use scheme that would have included 2,753 sqm of B1 office space and this was subsequently renewed in 201131. The surrounding area features city centre office buildings, but this stock appears to be mostly dated/poorly specified and the low rents that this grade of accommodation is likely to command may undermine the financial viability of redeveloping this site as an office scheme. However, given its location, this site has excellent access to labour, public transport and a broad range of amenities/services. In addition, local access is unconstrained and the A50, the nearest strategic road, is only c.400m from the site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

31 As per permissions 46120/FUL and 52516

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Chatterley Whitfield (NLP Ref: ST56 /LA Ref: 2455)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 12.27 ha Complex – Green Belt site is designated as a ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha scheduled ancient monument with many buildings which are listed and/or in a poor state of repair. Location is also poor. Located off the A527 on the outskirts of Stoke, Chatterley Whitfield is considered to be the most comprehensive surviving deep mine in England and accordingly it is designated as a Scheduled Ancient Monument and several buildings on the site have listed building status. The 12.27ha site is mainly surrounded by fields, although there are some residential properties on its southern border. Mining here ceased in 1976 and it later benefited from a number of regeneration initiatives. This included the development of a new roundabout to the site from the A527; upgrading its access road, which is of a good standard; and the refurbishment of several buildings that now form the Chatterley Whitfield Enterprise Centre. The latter comprises small 22 office/workshop units for the intended use of local SMEs and has ample car parking. However, it is evident that significantly more needs to occur at this site. With the exception of the Enterprise Centre many buildings are in a very bad state of disrepair, and the costs involved with rectifying these issues, together with the added complexity of scheduled ancient monument/listed building status, is inhibiting this site from coming forward for employment purposes. The site is also constrained by the following factors:  It is located in the Green Belt and a small part of it (c. 0.8ha) falls within the Whitfield Valley nature reserve;  It is approximately 3.5km from the site to the strategic road network (the A50) and in order to access this, the A527 extends through a residential area; and,  There are no bus stops within 400m of the site and as a result is relatively inaccessible for people without access to a car OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for alternative uses 9932770v7

Former Sub-Station, Bute Street, Fenton (NLP Ref: ST57)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.35 ha Lack of market interest/Proximity to incompatible ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.35 ha uses This 0.35ha plot is located on the east side of Bute Street, in an area that is mixed in terms of use. Immediately to the south of the site are some B2/B8 units, and Oldfield Industrial Estate is to the west; whereas there is housing to the north. In the past this site comprised a sub-station, though this has now been demolished and it now stands vacant. There is an unimplemented permission to develop an industrial scheme here (B1/B2/ B8)32, but there is nothing to suggest that this will be built out in the foreseeable future – market interest for employment space in this part of Stoke is currently perceived to be limited. Conversely, the site has good access to labour and local amenities/services and more favourable local market conditions may enable it to come forward for employment purposes in the medium term. There are 5 bus stops within 400m of the site and it has relatively good access to the strategic road network (the A50), via Baths Road. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment purposes

32 As per application ref: 52993/FUL

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Ex Phoenix Timber, Foley Rd, Longton (NLP Ref: ST58)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.75 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental Constraints ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.17 ha The former Phoenix Timber site is sandwiched between a railway line to north and the A50 to the south, on the outskirts of Longton. It comprises two plots of land. The eastern part has been developed as the Phoenix Retail Park. Consent was granted in 200833 (and the outline planning permission renewed in 201034) to develop industrial/storage buildings (B2/B8) on land adjoining this to the west - the site which is the subject of the assessment (which amounts to 1.7 hectares). However, this plot currently remains undeveloped and continues to be marketed as a commercial development opportunity. The site has reasonably good access to labour. A certain amount of services and amenities are available nearby, and within 400m of the site there are 4 bus stops - albeit about 500m from the site is Longton bus station. The service road for the retail park could also be used to provide local access for the site, though this road may become congested when the retail park is busy. And pending the success of the retail park, there could be pressure to provide additional retail on this site. Prior to any development here though, appropriate measures will need to be taken to deal with potential land contamination given that c. 72% of this site is designated as historic landfill. Ultimately, this site commands a very prominent position and has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network (the A50).

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

33 Application ref: 48012/RES and 34 Application ref: 50696 (renewal of 44247)

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Diamond Gimson Works, King St, Fenton (NLP Ref: ST59)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.68 ha Lack of market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 2.68 ha Bordering King Street and the Victoria Place Link Road, this 2.6ha site takes the form of a long, relatively narrow strip. The site is situated approximately 3.2km south of Stoke’s city centre and commands a very prominent position next to the A50. The surrounding area is mixed in terms of use and notably includes several medium sized units as well and a large retail warehouse occupied by Mega Discount Warehouse. The site formerly comprised the Diamond Gimson Works, but that closed in 1999 when the site was subsequently cleared. Before the property downturn it is understood that a number of proposals for the site were floated but nothing came of this. Further to this outline consent was granted in 2011 for a mixed use development which included a hotel and B1/ B8 accommodation, although this has now lapsed35. Hence of late the site appears to be constrained by limited market interest. Conversely, within 400m of the site are numerous bus stops. The site also has excellent access to the strategic road network (the A50)and good access to labour and local amenities. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

35 As per application ref: 51949

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Fenpark Industrial Estate (NLP Ref: ST60)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.41 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This 0.41 ha site forms part of Fenton Industrial Estate, a long standing and active employment site. It is accessed via a narrow road off Park Lane and comprises a couple of warehouse units, a small provision of office space and some storage compounds, most of which front onto a service yard. The office and warehouse provision is noticeably in a good condition, and is either relatively new or has recently been refurbished. Elsewhere on Fenton Industrial Estate the accommodation appears more dated. Other than the narrow access road there are no constraints that specifically relate to this particular site, although like many industrial areas in Stoke, it was noted that there is housing in close proximity to Fenton Industrial Estate. The site has adequate access to labour, there are nearby services/amenities and it is well connected in terms of public transport. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Berryhill Pottery (NLP Ref: ST61)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 11.44 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: Constraints/irregular shape 10.30 ha This vacant brownfield site amounts to 11.4ha and is located on the eastern side of Dewsbury Road on Fenton Industrial Estate, which largely comprises B2 and B8 accommodation. Immediately to the west and to the north of the site are warehouses together with a car storage area. To the east there are open fields and in the south there are allotments and housing. The site has an irregular shape, is unsurfaced and has a history of ground condition problems including land contaminants, landfill gases and a number of mine shafts, as such the cost of remediating these issues is likely to be high. It is noted that a planning permission to develop the site to provide 4 industrial units (B1/B2/B8) (and 4,026sqm36 of floorspace) has now lapsed. Fenton Industrial Estate has decent internal roads and Dewsbury Road connects directly onto the A50, implying that the site has very good access to the strategic road network. The site also has very good access to public transport and adequate access to labour. However, it is poorly serviced in terms of local amenities and services.

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

36 As per application ref: 49276/REM

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Site at Clarence Road/ Don Bur Service (NLP Ref: ST62)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.26 ha Fully developed, but nearby housing/school ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This fully developed site comprises two industrial units – a garage that services the commercial vehicles associated with the Don-Bur manufacturing operation; and a blue clad warehouse with a large yard used by Motiva, who specialises in vehicle fleet hire. The site amounts to 2.26ha and is located on the west side of Clarence Road, near to its junction with King Street, in an area that is mixed in terms of use. To the east and west is housing; to the south are further industrial units, whereas to the north the site borders Clarice Cliff Primary School. While there are several corner shops in the vicinity of the site, the range of amenities/services is limited. The site, however, is exceptionally well provided in terms of public transport as Longton bus station is within 400m. It also has relatively good access to the strategic road network (the A50), via Baths Road, though it is constrained in that certain types of employment use will be incompatible with the adjoining school and the nearby housing. In addition, it was noted that a large amount of vehicles were parked on Clarence Road when the site was inspected and this scale of parking may restrict local access to the site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Mossfield Road - New 8 (NLP Ref: ST63)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 7.48 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 5.81 constraints/Need for infrastructure ha This 7.5ha (gross) vacant site is situated at the end of Mossfield Road, adjacent to the industrial estate there, which has been developed for a mix of industrial uses. The site is uneven and comprises grassland, and whilst the surrounding landscape is of an urban setting with the exception of the industrial estate on Mossfield Road it is bordered by open fields. It is currently used for recreational purposes and is noted that c1.3ha in the eastern part of this site is land that forms part of the Berryhill Fields nature reserve. The cost of levelling the site and providing infrastructure is likely to deter market interest in this site. Presently the site has no access point, but one could be provided off Mossfield Road, which serves the industrial estate adequately. The site has suitable access to labour, although there are no nearby services/amenities. While there are 9 bus stops within 400m of the site all of these are located in residential areas to the east and south and access to these may be limited if this site is developed. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

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Shires Bathrooms, Uttoxeter Rd (NLP Ref: ST64)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.57 ha Lack of market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.57 ha This 1.57ha site fronts onto the north side of Uttoxeter Road (the A5007), close to its junction with the A50. The surrounding area is mixed in terms of use. On the western border of the site several dated warehouse/industrial premises are located off Lawley Street. Also nearby on Sutherland Road is a small cluster of medium sized B8 units, which have been developed more recently. The site formerly accommodated the factory for Shires Bathrooms (Use Class B2), but in 2013 most of the buildings on the site were declared unsafe and subsequently demolished. Ever since the factory closed it is understood that the site has been marketed as a commercial development opportunity, and in 2008 permission was granted allowing it to be redeveloped for B8 purposes, though this has now lapsed37. When the assessment occurred the vacant site was still being marketed. No development or environmental constraints were identified from the site visit. The site has adequate access to labour and local services/amenities, and within 400m of the site there are numerous bus stops. Local access to the site is unconstrained and it has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network (the A50). OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

37 As per application ref: 49181

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Calvery Street and Lower Spring Rd (NLP Ref: ST65)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.65 ha Existing employment site / Residential Use ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE 0 ha This small site (0.65ha) is situated in a part of Stoke that comprises housing alongside buildings in employment use. While the site is in very close proximity to the strategic road network (the A50) local access is mainly via Calverley Street, which is a relatively narrow road. The site has adequate access to labour and local services/amenities, and within 400m of the site there are numerous bus stops. The site has recently been developed out and is now used by Pickering Plant Hire. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Land at Mossfield Road/ Mossfield Industrial Estate (NLP Ref: ST66)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.55 ha Lack of market interest/Environmental constraints ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.55 ha This site is a vacant plot of land within the Mossfield Industrial Estate, which mainly comprises a mix of B1(c), B2 and B8 stock. Amounting to 1.5ha, the plot comprises grassland, young trees and a small area of scrub, and borders a short terrace of recently developed small workshop units. In 2002 permission was granted to develop a waste recycling centre on part of the site38, although this has now lapsed, and in 2014 permission was granted to develop another part of the site as an MOT centre and garage39. Circa 94% of the site is designated as historic landfill which may require remediation. Local access to the site is unconstrained. The site has vehicular access from Mossfield Road and is approximately 2km from the A50, though this is approached via Anchor Road (the B5039) which has been developed to a good standard, making the strategic road network relatively accessible. While the site has adequate access to labour there are no nearby services / amenities. However there are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

38 As per permission ref 40119 39 As per permission ref 55884

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Sandford Hill (NLP Ref: ST67)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.52 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This small, regular shaped site forms part of the industrial estate on Mossfield Road and amounts to 0.52ha. Situated on the south-eastern side of the road, it comprises a single building used by Transcycle as a waste recycling centre - a sui generis use. With perhaps the exception of this building, this part of the estate is predominately used by Don-Bur, who manufactures a range of vehicle trailers and rigid bodywork. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. The site is approximately 2.33km from the A50, approached via Anchor Road (the B5039) which has been developed to a good standard, making the strategic road network relatively accessible. While the site has adequate access to labour there are no nearby services/amenities. However there are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Park Hall Business Village (NLP Ref: ST68)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.58 ha None identified ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.46 ha This site is an undeveloped plot (of 0.58ha) on the Park Hall Business Village. The business village is a well- established estate which accommodates a wide variety of businesses and includes B1 office, B2 industrial, and B8 storage/distribution accommodation. Whilst some of this stock appears dated and possibly poorly specified the plot is situated next to some high calibre light industrial/storage units that have been developed relatively recently, have ample space for parking, are accessed via a good internal road, and which appear to be fully occupied. Therefore the plot is well positioned should there be market interest in expanding this provision further under planning permission ref:40779 (for 22 industrial units as part of Phase 11 of the exiting Park Hall development), which has been partially implemented. No development or environmental constraints were identified. While the site has adequate access to labour there are no nearby services/amenities and there are only 4 bus stops within 400m.

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Land at Junction of Park Hall Rd/Anchor Rd, Adderly Green - CFS 1 (NLP Ref: ST69)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.4 ha No access point to the site and creating this likely ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.4 ha to be problematic This 1.4ha site is currently being marketed as being suitable for commercial or residential development and is included in this assessment as it was a call for sites submission. It occupies a prominent corner position at the convergence of Anchor Road and Park Hall Road and presently comprises a mixture of open grass and shrubland, which is mainly bordered by hedgerow. The surrounding area is mixed in terms of use. The site is flanked by several medium industrial units on its southern border, and by two residential properties alongside several garages/outbuildings on its western border. In addition, on the opposite side of Anchor Road from the site is an army reserve centre and petrol station. No development or environmental constraints were identified. While the site has adequate access to labour there are no nearby services/amenities. However there are six bus stops within 400m of the site, and it is approximately 2km from the strategic road network (the A50), via Anchor Road (the B5039) which has been developed to a good standard, making the A50 relatively accessible despite this distance. In 2003 outline permission was granted for a motor dealership/workshop, a crèche and B1 light industrial units, although it is presumed that this has now lapsed40. To come forward for employment use the site will require a new access point for vehicles and, given that both Anchor Road and Park Hall Road are busy roads, determining a suitable location for this may be problematic. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

40 As per permission ref: SOT/42117

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Business Unit 1 (Recticel), Enterprise Way, Meir Park (NLP Ref: ST70)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 3.1 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This 3.1ha site comprises a large warehouse and forms part of the Meir Park Industrial Estate, which includes a B&Q, a Tesco superstore, an ALDI store, a number of smaller businesses and a further industrial unit operated by the Co-operative Pharmacy. Recticel Insulation has operated from the unit since its erection in 2008 and, in order to accommodate its expansion, the size of the property was recently extended – the (B2/B8) building now amounts to 5,178sq m. As a result of this the firm which previously employed 60 people, has been able to create 5 additional jobs41. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. It has adequate access to labour, there are nearby amenities/services, and within 400m of the site are 8 bus stops. The site also has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network (the A50). OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

41 Details stated in the committee report for application ref: 55873

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Etruria Valley Phase 3a and 3b, Forge Lane Etruria (NLP Ref: ST71)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 20.5 ha None identified ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 18.45 ha Comprising a largely level plateau of cleared previously developed land, this site amounts to 20.5ha and is located to the west of Forge Lane, adjoining Phase 2 Etruria Valley (See ST72) on its northern border. The site has an irregular shape and on its eastern border is flanked by the Trent and Mersey Canal. Outline permission has been granted for Etruria Valley Phase 3a which will provide 13,720sqm of floorspace on 5.85ha of the site42; and an application has been submitted but is yet to be determined for Etruria Valley Phase 3b, which proposes developing the remaining 14.55ha to provide up 33,950 sqm43. 20% of both of these proposals would be for B2 use and the remainder for B8 use. Junction improvements to serve this site have already been provided through developing over employment sites in this vicinity. However, new access roads that will link the site to these junctions are yet to be developed. The development of this site is also constrained by:  The Trent and Mersey Canal, which is a conservation area and the nearby Fowlea Brook, where there are potentially sensitive habitats;  The fact that this site forms part of the Etruria Valley SPD, which indicates that housing is to be developed nearby;  The possibility of traffic impact. While the nearest strategic road network is only a short distance from the site, this is onto the A500 between the city centre and Etruria, which is susceptible to congestion; and,  No nearby amenities or services Conversely, access to labour is adequate and within 400m of the site there are numerous bus stops. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

42 As per permission ref: 56150/OUT 43 As per application ref: 56151/OUT

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Etruria Valley Phase 2a, Forge Lane (NLP Ref: ST72)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 6.09 ha None identified ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 3.01 ha This site comprises 6.09 ha of previously developed land located within the southern section of Etruria Valley, immediately to the north of buildings occupied by Wades Ceramic and Hanley Economic Building Society (see ST73). The site, which comprises a largely level plateau, is situated within the Etruria Valley SPD area and, as such, its provision of employment land is considered to be strategic priority for the city. In 2012 outline permission was granted to develop 24,907sqm of employment floorspace here. Within this overall figure up to 12,945sqm floorspace is for B2 and B8 uses and the remaining 11,962 sqm floorspace is for B1 Office/Light Industrial uses44. Further to this, at the end of 2014, reserved matters consent was granted to develop a distribution unit amounting to 5,567sqm on 3.08ha on the western side of the site45. This unit has been pre-let to parcel delivery firm DPD and, when the site was visited, work on developing this was underway. Hence, 3.01ha is yet to be developed here, but this is ‘oven baked land’ that could be developed quickly once pre-lets have been achieved. Immediately to the west, the site is flanked by the mainline and there is a short railway siding, although this is felt to be inadequate for rail freight purposes. While the nearest strategic road network is only a short distance from the site this is onto the A500 between Stoke’s city centre and Etruria, which is susceptible to congestion. It is also noted that the wider Etruria Valley SPD area is planned to include housing and accordingly this may influence the type of employment use that can occur on this site. The site is also constrained by the fact that there are no nearby amenities or services. Conversely, local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. In addition, access to labour is adequate and there are numerous bus stops within 400m of this site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for Employment Use

44 As per permission ref: 52732 45 As per permission ref: 57466/RES

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Wades, Trade Park 4, Hanley Economic and Festival Court (NLP Ref: ST73)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.55 ha Limited market interest in undeveloped land ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.40 ha Amounting to 2.5ha, this site is situated to the north of Festival Trade Park on Forge Lane. In 2008 planning permission was granted to provide four office buildings here46 but, due to the recession, only one of these buildings was built, which is now occupied by Hanley Economic Building Society. Hence the consent has been implemented, although extending around the Hanley Economic building is undeveloped land which has been earmarked for three further office buildings. This plot is cleared although there is no evidence to suggest that it is currently being marketed. To the west of this plot is a warehouse (B8), now occupied by Wades Ceramics, and immediately to the south of this there is some more undeveloped land. Permission was also granted in 2008 to develop this warehouse and adjoining land into a scheme comprising four industrial units, but again the downturn in the property market has meant that so far just the unit occupied by Wades Ceramics has actually been developed47. The undeveloped element of this plot is currently being marketed as Festival Trade Park Phase 4, which it is understood would comprise two terraces of industrial units ranging in size from 140sqm to 1,805sqm. Ultimately, it is felt that there will be market interest in this site, which pending chiefly on securing pre-lets could be developed out quickly. While the nearest strategic road network is only a short distance from the site this is onto the A500 between the city centre and Etruria, which is susceptible to congestion. The site is also constrained by the fact that there no nearby amenities or services. Conversely, local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. In addition, access to labour is adequate and there are numerous bus stops within 400m of this site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

46 Ref: 48428/FUL 47 Ref: 48426/FUL

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Land at Clough Street – Inc. CFS 12 (NLP Ref: ST74)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 13.83 ha Limited market interest and part of the site is ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 2.8 ha classified as being in a coalfield high risk area Located immediately to the west of Clough Street’s junction with Potteries Way, this site comprises two plots of land, one on the north side of Clough Street and the other on the south. In overall terms the site amounts to 13.83ha, of which 2.4ha relates to a parcel of land on the southern side of Clough Street that was a call for sites submission. The site has been identified as a ‘key development opportunity site’ for many years and the area surrounding it is mixed in terms of use. To the north it borders the city centre and is in very close proximity to the new business district, whereas it borders with areas that primarily comprise housing in the west and south. Part of the plot on the south side of Clough Street comprises a disused, overgrown site that features areas of hardstanding from previous employment use. Most of the remaining land on the southern side of the street is currently used for car parking, although it also features a number of industrial buildings, some of which are dated and poorly specified and are considered to have very limited market appeal. The plot on the north side of Clough Street mainly consists of Metro Business Park and a Vauxhall car showroom, with the business park predominantly comprising warehouses and workshop units. Local access to the site is unconstrained. As the site is within walking distance to the city centre it has excellent access public transport, labour, and a broad range of services and amenities. In addition, as it is next to Potteries Way it has very good access to the strategic road network. However, parts of both plots - and indeed the site identified via the call for site process - are within coalfield high risk areas, so potentially there may be hazards which could affect redevelopment. In the short term at least it is dubious as to whether there is market appetite to regenerate the disused plot on the south side of the street, although possibly the redevelopment of the plot identified via the call for sites process may act as a catalyst for this to occur. Nevertheless, the Council should continue to ensure that developers evidence that B1 office development cannot be accommodated within the new business district or elsewhere in the city centre. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Barracks Road, Newcastle (NLP Ref: NL1)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.33 ha Lack of market interest/ Poor access point ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha Situated in Newcastle’s town centre, this site amounts to 0.33 hectares and comprises a number of buildings of what was the St Giles Primary school. The site fronts onto the western side of Barracks Road (the A527). To the west and south the site borders the rear of retail units which front onto Castle Walk, and in the north it borders Queen’s Gardens. While it is apparent the school probably closed some years ago, these buildings appear to be in reasonable condition and, despite the small size of the site, it includes a reasonable amount of space for off-street parking. Vehicular access to this site is directly onto Barracks Road, although this was relatively congested when the assessment occurred. The site is just a short walk away from the bus station and is very near to the A34, so has excellent access to public transport and the strategic road network. It also has very good access to labour and amenities/services. The site would be suited for B1 offices and it is understood that the Borough Council is considering the option of moving its main civic office here. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use if site becomes available

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Brunswick St/George Street Newcastle (NLP Ref: NL2)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.35 ha Lack of market interest (due to location and size of ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.35 ha site) This small site (0.35 ha) is located close to the town centre boundary, and comprises a car park and a long- term vacant building, which once was the Zanzibar Ballroom. The site fronts onto Brunswick Street (the A52), a busy through-route, and is bordered by Hassell Street to the south, and by North Street to the west. The surrounding area is mixed in terms of use and includes nearby housing. When the site visit occurred the car park was almost empty. As regards to the building, there is evidence that it has been fire damaged and is open to the elements in some places. Its size and fringe location also implies that that there is likely to be very little market interest in redeveloping this site purely for employment purposes, consequently any redevelopment of the site is likely to result in the demolition of the current building. Indeed, this site is more likely to be suited for a mix of uses (residential or retail) incorporating an office component. The site very has good access to the strategic road network, public transport, labour and services/amenities. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed-use with an element of employment

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Silverdale Business Park, Cemetery Road, Silverdale (NLP Ref: NL3)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.5 ha Lack of market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.62 ha This site is situated at the Silverdale Business Park on Maries Way, which is off Cemetery Road in Silverdale. The business park was initially developed out on the southern side of Maries Way and comprises a small provision of B1 office space, workshops and some storage accommodation. However, land on the northern side of Maries Way, and at the western end of the road, had also been intended to be part of the business park and it is this 1.5ha site which is the subject of this assessment. This site effectively comprises three plots. The plot on the northern side of Maries Way (with frontage onto Cemetery Road) has partially been developed out and comprises 1,500sqm in a two storey office building, representing the first phase of an office scheme that is earmarked to be developed here. There is an extant permission to provide three further office buildings (collectively providing 1,856sqm) on the adjoining cleared land, but a start on this is yet to occur48. The remaining land on the north side of Maries Way is used for open storage, whereas the plot at the end of road is vacant and overgrown. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. Given that there are 6 bus stops within 400m, the site has reasonable access to public transport, though when the site was visited a considerable number of vehicles were parked along Maries Way - restricting vehicle turning points. While the site has adequate access to labour there are no nearby amenities/services and access to the strategic road network is fairly poor given that it’s approximately 2.5km to the A34, the closest strategic road. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

48 As relating to permission ref 11/00405/FUL

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Chatterley Valley (east of mainline), Chatterley (NLP Ref: NL4)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 6.46 ha Part of the site is within a coalfield high risk area ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 5.49 ha This undeveloped site amounts to 6.46ha (gross) and is situated immediately to the north of the Blue Planet distribution building, now occupied by JCB. Flanked by Lowlands Road to the east and by the mainline to the west, this site comprises partially grassed over spoil material that was possibly moved here when the Blue Planet was developed. The site will be able to utilise the internal road that was provided as part of that development, and would ideally suit high calibre B8 accommodation that matches the build calibre of the Blue Planet building. It is noted, however, that part of the site falls within a coalfield high risk area, so remedial work may need to be conducted. While the site has very good access to the strategic road network, there are no nearby services or amenities, and likewise there are no bus stops within 400m of this site. Nevertheless, potentially a short rail siding for freight use could be developed here. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Chatterley Valley (west of mainline), Chatterley (NLP Ref: NL5)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 44.15 ha Environmental Constraints/infrastructure needed ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 37.53 ha Totalling 44.15ha, this greenfield site is allocated as a Premium Employment Site (PES) under saved policy E2 of the Newcastle-Under-Lyme Local Plan 2011. The site is flanked by Peacock Hay Road in the north, where it has a distinct slope, and it borders the A500 and the mainline to the west and east respectively. The site is currently partially used for farming and can be accessed from Peacock Hay Road and also from an A500 slip road. The site is exceptionally well located to access the strategic road network and formerly comprised rail sidings. Given that the site has a long border with the mainline potentially these sidings could be reinstated and developed for freight purposes. However, infrastructure will need to be provided and viable reserves of Etruria Marl may underlie this site – the extent of this will need to be proved and provision made for any necessary extraction. In addition, great crested newts have previously been identified at this site. If this remains the case, these species will need to be migrated elsewhere before development can occur. There are no nearby amenities or services, and similarly there are no bus stops within 400m of this site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Speedway Stadium, Chesterton (NLP Ref: NL6)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 4.85 ha Risk of great crested newts ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This site comprises a speedway stadium used by motorbikes. It is immediately adjacent to the northwest boundary of Lymedale Business Park and extends to 4.85 ha. Should the site become available it will be relatively straightforward to integrate it into Lymedale Business Park as this should only involve extending Pit Head Close (one of the roads that services the business park) a short distance. The site would suit B8 development and has reasonably good access to the strategic road network. There are 4 bus stops within 400m of the site, although there are no nearby services or amenities. In addition great crested newts were identified here in 2012 and, since these are protected species, mitigation measures wouldl need to be implemented before any development can occur here. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use if site becomes available

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Eardley End Area A (NLP Ref: NL7)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 59.88 ha Environmental Constraints/ Infrastructure needed ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 43.49 ha This site is located to the north of the Audley/Alsager junction with the A500 and, amounting to 59.88ha, it extends to both the west and east of Alsager Road and has a gentle sloping topography. Presently it comprises farmland and a number of farm properties, including Eardleyend Farmhouse, which is grade II listed. Development of the site is constrained as it is situated in the Green Belt. In addition, c1.9ha of the site forms part of Wrench’s Coppice, which has designated ancient woodland status, and approximately 3.5 ha is located within flood zone 3. Given this is a greenfield site the cost of providing infrastructure here is also envisaged to be high. While it is exceptionally located to access to the strategic road network, there are no nearby services or amenities, access to labour is poor, and there are no bus stops within 400m. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Eardley End Area C (NLP Ref: NL8)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.79 ha Infrastructure needed ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.79 ha This greenfield site amounts to 1.79ha and is located immediately to the north of the A500 junction with Alsager Road, on the eastern side of Alsager Road. The site, which is situated in the Green Belt, is relatively level and currently comprises a field used for farming. Access to this site will need to be improved but this should be relatively straightforward. While it is exceptionally located to access to the strategic road network, there are no nearby services or amenities, access to labour is poor, and there are no bus stops within 400m. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Eardley End Area D (NLP Ref: NL9)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 3.52 ha Infrastructure needed/Access road will need to be ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 3.52 ha developed across adjacent field Totalling 3.52ha this greenfield site is located immediately to the north of the A500 interchange with Alsager Road, adjoining ‘Land off Alsager Road and A500’ (ref: NL23) to the east. The site, which is situated in the Green Belt, currently comprises a field used for agricultural purposes and is surrounded by other fields also used for farming. In order to come forward for employment use this site would require an access road to be developed across the adjacent field. While it is exceptionally located to access to the strategic road network, there are no nearby services or amenities, access to labour is poor, and there are no bus stops within 400m.

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Former Wolstanton Colliery Stock Yard, West Ave, Wolstanton (NLP Ref: NL10)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 4.58 ha Irregular shaped site/site maybe further ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 2.38 narrowed by A500 road widening ha This 4.58ha site is situated at the Wolstanton junction to the A500 and flanked by the A500 to the west and by the mainline to the east. The site, which falls within the Etruria Valley Enterprise SPD Area, has an irregular shape (long and thin) and formerly mainly consisted of a coal yard. Currently, only the northern part of the site is in employment use, which is used by CPL Distribution for storage purposes. Immediately to the south of the site is the Centre 500 which comprises recently developed high quality industrial and distribution stock. Potentially this site could be developed out to effectively extend this provision. In addition, it has the potential to accommodate a rail siding for freight purposes. Having said that there are couple of constraints. Firstly, the site’s long and thin shape significantly reduces its potential net developable area, and the A500 road widening programme, which is due to commence shortly, may reduce this even further. Secondly, there are no nearby amenities or services, and similarly there are no bus stops within 400m of the site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Great Oak (NLP Ref: NL11)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 46.51 ha ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 34.88 ha This greenfield site is situated on the southern side of the A500, close to Talke Road as it extends towards the village of Red Street and relatively near to the A34/A500 interchange. The site is located in the Green Belt and, other than the A500, the site is surrounded by fields. It slopes and is currently used for farming. The cost of levelling the site and providing infrastructure may deter market interest in this site. Presently only a small number of buildings/structures are located on the site, though this includes the Wedgwood monument, which is grade II listed. Employment use at this site is constrained by several other factors:

 Approximately 4.6 hectares of the site is designated as historic landfill (This includes one of the landfills at Dirt Track Road and the derelict mine workings at Jamage Farm);

 Land Registry GIS data indicates that the site comprises more than 12 freehold plots, which may suggest that it has fragmented ownership;

 Part of the site falls within a coalfield high risk area, an area where there may be hazards which could affect new development. It is also noted a CPO application was recently submitted for the proposed development of an open cast coal mining site here49, and although this was subsequently withdrawn it has established that there are untapped coal reserves at this site and proposals to mine this may come forward again in the future; and,

 While there are 8 bus stops within 400m of the site all of these are located in Red Street and therefore most of the site is inadequately provided in terms of access to public transport. Despite this, the site is very well located to utilise the strategic road network. Access to labour is reasonable and nearest amenities/services are approx. 1km to the north in Talke. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

49 As per an application submitted to Staffordshire County Council Ref: 14/00128/CPO

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Heathcote St, Chesterton (NLP Ref: NL12)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.41 ha Pressure to provide further housing/scheme ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.41 ha viability Totalling 0.41ha, this cleared site is located on the east side of Sandford Street and was last used as the Chesterton ex-service mens club. The area surrounding the site is mixed in terms of use. Parkhouse Industrial estate, which mainly consists of B8, B2 and light industrial units, borders the site to the east, although Heathcote Street is mainly residential in character, as is the immediate area surrounding it to the north, south and west. There is clearly pressure to provide additional housing in this area and local demand for employment space appears to be satisfied at Parkhouse Industrial estate, or elsewhere within the borough. This is illustrated by the fact that immediately to the south of the site is the former Corona Works, which is currently being redeveloped to provide 16 houses50 in a scheme that appears to have resulted in the loss of 1,616sq m of employment space51. It is noted that planning permission has been granted to redevelop this site to provide a residential–led mixed use scheme that includes a small provision of employment accommodation52, although this development has stalled. Potentially, if this scheme is delivered, that provision may be let or sold, but for viability reasons, it is considered that this site is inappropriate for a development that would mainly provide employment accommodation. Conversely, the site has exceptionally good access to labour and public transport, and is within walking distance to nearby amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for alternative use (if extant planning permission lapses)

50 As per permission: 10/00480/FUL 51 Figure as per the VOA 2005 rating list and is in respect of it indicating that this site formerly comprised three warehouses 52 As per permissions 07/00620/OUT and 08/00800/REM

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High Carr Colliery (NLP Ref: NL13)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 21.33 ha Environmental Constraints/infrastructure needed ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 13.40 ha Located on the eastern side of the A34 as it meets the A34/A500 interchange, this triangular shaped, sloping site amounts to 21.33ha. The site is flanked by the A34 in the west and the A500 to the east, beyond which there are fields. A petrol station borders the site in the north, whereas it borders woodland in the south. Moreover, c. 3.5ha of the site is designated historic landfill and part of the site falls within a coalfield high risk area, so remedial work may need to be conducted. It mostly comprises grassland with some trees, though a small part is currently used by High Carr Pallets and Cherry Hill Waste & Skip Hire. The sloping topography of this site will restrict its net developable area. There are no nearby services or amenities, access to labour is poor, and there are no bus stops within 400m of this site. The site does have reasonably good access to the southbound lane of the A34 (this section of the A34 is a dual-carriageway).

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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High Carr, Chesterton (NLP Ref: NL14)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 18.50 ha Environmental Constraints/infrastructure ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 16.65 ha needed/Access improvements required This site amounts to 18.5ha and is located on the eastern side of the A34, immediately to north of the existing employment area at High Carr Business Park. The site has an irregular shape, is densely wooded, and is situated within the Green Belt. Approximately 3.4ha of the southern part of the site forms part of Bradwell Woods, which is designated as ancient woodland. In addition, the former Harr Carr landfill was located on the site and accordingly c.81% of the site is designated as historic landfill. Vehicular access to this site will significantly need to be improved if it is to come as an employment site and, whilst it potentially has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network, there are no nearby amenities or services, and similarly there are no bus stops within 4oom of this site. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Jamage South (NLP Ref: NL15)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 44.75 ha Environmental Constraints/infrastructure needed ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE: 40.28 ha This irregular shaped site (44.89ha) consists of several fields and is situated between the A500 and the town of Talke. The western section of the site extends around Parrot’s Wood, which is designated as ancient woodland. This woodland lies between Jamage Lane Industrial Estate on the southern outskirts of Talke and the site, and a small part of the site borders a medium sized B8 unit on this industrial estate. This established employment area comprises industrial stock which varies in terms of age, size and specification. The site also borders Arbour Farm, on the southern side of Oaktree Lane, near to its junction with Jamage Lane - in this vicinity there are also a number of residential properties. Potentially the site could be accessed from Jamage Lane, which extends southwards past Arbour Farm, but this road is narrow and will need to be improved. The site has excellent access to the strategic road network and is within 400m of 8 bus stops. It also has good access to labour and the range of amenities/services available in Talke. However the site is located in the Green Belt and it is also constrained by:

 The cost of providing infrastructure, which is likely to be high given this is a greenfield site;

 A high voltage electricity transmission line, which extends across the site and several pylons, which will limit its net developable area; and,

 Part of the site falls within a coalfield high risk area, so remedial work may need to be conducted

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Land adjoining A500 & M6 (J16) (NLP Ref: NL16)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 22.87 ha Poor site access/Access to the A500 needs to be ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 17.15 ha improved/Infrastructure required Amounting to 22.94 hectares, this greenfield site is situated immediately to the south of M6/A500 interchange. It borders the A500 to the north and the M6 to the west but is otherwise surrounded by fields. Presently it can only be accessed from Park Lane, a narrow country road that extends southwards to the village of Audley, which mitigates the benefits of the closeness this site has to the strategic road network (indeed, via Park Lane it is approximately 3.5km to the strategic road network). The site is located in the Green Belt, it slopes and is currently used for farming. The cost of providing infrastructure is likely to be high and the possibility of creating a new access road that links directly to the A500, or the interchange, may be constrained by high traffic levels. There are no bus stops within 400m of the site and its relative remoteness implies that it has poor access to labour and local services/amenities. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Land at Brampton Road (NLP Ref: NL17)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.35 ha Within conservation area ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.35 ha Totalling 1.37 hectares, this site is situated on the eastern side of Brampton Road (the A527) at its junction with Sandy Lane. Brampton Road is a very pleasant tree lined street which is mainly residential in character, while the site itself takes the form of well-maintained ‘green space’. Immediately to the east of the site on Brampton Road are a number of large, detached Victorian properties, the largest of which is occupied by RBS Europe, though no other business appears to operate within the immediate area. While the site has exceptionally good access to labour and public transport, and is within walking distance to nearby amenities/services, its location within the Brampton Road conservation area and potential loss of green space are unlikely to make it suitable for development. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Hilltop Business Centre, Talke (NLP Ref: NL18)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.84 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha This 0.84ha site comprises a former primary school and is situated in a residential area, at the brow of Coalpit Hill in Talke. All the former school buildings have been retained and converted so as provide small office units, which are used by two firms (Niscam and Automation Control Panels). In addition, there is an annexe that is available to rent on a short term basis, which is occasionally used by a dance school. The specification of this provision appears be to be poor, but this may satisfy local requirements for affordable accommodation. A reasonable amount of car parking is provided here, although access to the site from Coalpit Lane is considered poor. The site has decent access to local labour, and within 400m of the site there are numerous bus stops. However, while the A34 is relatively near to the site, in this study this section of the A34 is not considered to be part of the strategic road network and instead this is located approximately 3km from the site at the A34/A500 interchange. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Land at London Road Chesterton (NLP Ref: NL19)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 9.27 ha Lack of market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha Amounting to 9.27 hectares, this site is situated at the junction of London Road (the B5500) and Holditch Road, and is very close to the strategic road network (the A34). London Road is mainly residential in character and Churchfields Primary School is located relatively close to the site. The site is allocated for Class B1, B2 and B8 development under saved policy E4 of the Newcastle-Under-Lyme Local Plan 2011. Formerly a Vodafone call-centre was situated on this site and the National Grid occupied a number of buildings here as well. However, the site was vacant when the assessment occurred and it was noted that some ground clearance work had been carried out, seemingly as part of plans for its redevelopment to provide a new recycling facility53. If this is the case this site will no longer be in employment use. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

53 As is the subject of application ref: 12/00229/CPO

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Land at Oaktree Lane, Talke (NLP Ref: NL20)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.89 ha None identified ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.89 ha Amounting to 0.89ha, this parcel of land is prominently located immediately to the north of the Travelodge and Little Chef on the northern side of the A34/A500 interchange. The site overlooks the two roundabouts linking Talke to the A34 and is bounded to the east by the A34.Other than the roads and the nearby Travelodge and Little Chef, the site is surrounded by fields. Almost the entire site is bordered by hedge, it is level, and currently comprises rough grassland and shrubs. Off the roundabout on its north-western border there is an access point which could be developed so as to provide a short service road into the site. A certain amount of services and amenities are available nearby, it has adequate access to labour, and within 400m of the site there are 4 bus stops. While the site is constrained by being situated within the Green Belt, its small size and location potentially suggests that it could be considered as an ‘infill site’. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Land between Lower Milehouse Lane & Brymbo Road (NLP Ref: NL21)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.9 ha Lack of market interest/ Part of site is in Flood ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.4 ha Zone 3 This long irregular shaped site is land that effectively now forms part of Lymedale Cross, which comprises a mixture of B1, B2 and B8 accommodation. The 1.9ha site is situated on the eastern side of Lymedale Cross, and to the south the site borders with housing. It is currently mainly in use as informal car and HGV parking, or is unused land. The site has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network (the A34). In addition, there are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site. However, circa 54% of this site falls within flood zone 3, and the nearby housing may limit the potential to provide B2/B8 here. It is noted that planning permission has been granted to redevelop the site to provide 3,778 sqm in eight industrial units (B1c, B2, B8) and two office buildings amounting to 1,808sqm54, though when the site was visited there was no evidence that this scheme had started. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

54 As per application: 06/00906/EXTN

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Land north of Audley (NLP Ref: NL22)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 60.14 ha Infrastructure needed ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 45.11 ha This site is located immediately to the south of the Audley/Alsager junction with the A500, and, amounting to 60.14ha, it extends to both the west and east of Alsager Road. The site is situated in the Green Belt and borders the A500 to the north but is otherwise surrounded by fields. Presently it comprises farmland and a number of properties, including Hullock's Pool Farmhouse which is Grade II listed. While the site is relatively well serviced by local roads, given its size it is likely that further access roads and infrastructure improvements will need to be made. The site has poor access to labour. There are no nearby services or amenities and similarly there are no bus stops within 400m of the site. Conversely, it is exceptionally well located to access the strategic road network. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Land off Alsager Road and A500 (NLP Ref: NL23)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 5.05 ha Infrastructure needed ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 4.29 ha This greenfield site amounts to 5.05ha and is located immediately to the north of the A500 junction with Alsager Road, on the eastern side of Alsager Road. The site is situated in the Green Belt and, other than for Alsager Road, is surrounded by fields. It has an irregular shape and currently comprises a field used for farming. In order to come forward for employment use this site would require improvement works to its access. The site has poor access to labour. There are no nearby services or amenities and similarly there are no bus stops within 400m of the site. Conversely, it is exceptionally well located to access to the strategic road network.

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Land to S&E of New Development Site, Keele (NLP Ref: NL24)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 46.3 ha Dependent on the take-up of Phase 3 of the ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 12.15 ha Science Park/ Infrastructure required This 46.3ha greenfield site is situated within the Green Belt and lies to the east and south of Keele Science Park Phase 3. Most of the southern part of this large, irregular shaped site is land that forms part of the gardens of Keele Hall, which features English Heritage’s Register of Historic Parks and Gardens. According to our calculation some 22.7ha of this site is part of this garden. The site is also mainly surrounded by trees and its eastern border extends around Butts and Hands Wood, which is designated as ancient woodland. Should the northern part of the site come forward for employment use (as a future extension of the science park), infrastructure would be needed but it should be relatively straightforward to provide site access from Phase 3. The site benefits from reasonable access to public transport, the availability of nearby services/amenities, and good local access. However, four pylons (associated with a high voltage line) are located on the site which will limit its net developed area, and development here would be constrained by the pace of take-up of Phase 3 of the science park, which may imply that it does not come forward until the latter part of the plan period. In addition, given the location of the site, it is also viewed as having fairly poor access to labour and the strategic road network.

OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Land off Liverpool Road, Kidsgrove (NLP Ref: NL25)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.29 ha Small heavily wooded site near housing/No access ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.29 ha point/ within a coalfield high risk area and designated historic landfill site This small, heavily wooded site (0.29ha) is situated immediately to the east of the Aldi store on the north side of Liverpool Road (the A50). To the north, the site is bordered by a public footpath beyond which there is housing. There is also housing on the opposite side of Liverpool Road to the site. Currently there is no vehicular access to the site - there is no possibility of providing this from the site occupied by Aldi and the site fronts onto a section of Liverpool Road that features chevrons. The entire site falls within a coalfield high risk area and c. 99% of the land here forms part of the Birchenwood landfill site. These constraints will need to be investigated and, if necessary, dealt with prior to any development occurring here. In spite of these constraints, if access issues can be overcome, this site has direct access onto the strategic road network. Within 400m of the site there are numerous bus stops. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Liverpool Road Newcastle (NLP Ref: NL26)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.82 ha None identified ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha Amounting to 0.82 hectares this relatively small, fully developed site is located on the western side of Liverpool Road (the A34) near to the new Sainsbury’s and comprises a warehouse and yard – currently used by First Bus as a bus depot. The surrounding area is mixed in character and notably includes residential properties, which border the site to the east. Local access to the site is unconstrained and, given that the site fronts onto the A34, it has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network. The site has very good access to labour and public transport and is within walking distance nearby amenities/services. No development or environmental constraints were identified and the building appears to be in reasonable condition. Should First Bus vacate this site it may be suitable for redevelopment B8 storage purposes or as B1 office accommodation. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use if site becomes available

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Ryecroft Site, Newcastle (NLP Ref: NL27)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 1.1 ha None identified ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 1.1 ha Situated in Newcastle’s town centre, this site totals 1.1 hectares and has an extensive frontage onto the Ryecroft (the A52). The site is bordered by A3 and B1 uses and formerly comprised a relatively large Sainsbury’s, though this has now been demolished and when the assessment occurred the cleared site was being used for car parking. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. There was no evidence that the site was being marketed at this time.However, land assembly should be relatively straightforward in terms of its redevelopment as it is understood that the site is in the ownership of the Borough Council. The site is just a short walk away from the bus station and is very near to the A34, so has excellent access to public transport and the strategic road network. It also has very good access to labour and amenities/services. Ultimately therefore, this cleared plot presents an opportunity for a significant retail or mixed-use scheme in gateway location. It may be feasible for a mixed-use scheme including an element of B1 office accommodation. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed use with an element of employment

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Liverpool Road/Ashfields New Road (NLP Ref: NL28)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.52 ha [NOT APPLICABLE] ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha Located next to the new Sainsbury’s on the eastern side of Liverpool Road (the A34) this small site (amounting to 0.52 hectares) was identified in the previous ELR as having consent for 2,230 sqm of B1 offices. However, it has recently been fully developed for Class A4 purposes and now comprises a public house called the Cotton Mill, operated by Marston’s Inns and Taverns. This loss of employment land can perhaps be attributed to the difficulty in attempting to pre-let this office accommodation. The site has exceptionally good access to labour and public transport, and is within walking distance to nearby amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: [SITE NOW IN USE FOR NON-B-CLASS USE – NOT APPLICABLE] SITE RECOMMENDATION: [NOT APPLICABLE]

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Lower St, Newcastle (NLP Ref: NL29)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.59 ha Lack of market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.4 ha This predominantly cleared site is located on the edge of Newcastle’s town centre, bordered by Lower Street (the A34) to the east and by Stanier Street to the west. The surrounding area is mixed in character and Stanier Street is a residential street. Formerly, the site comprised a mill building, which was later a nightclub, but most of this has now been demolished and it is understood that it has remained vacant for some years. The buildings that still remain include the grade II Listed Maxims Wine Bar. Planning permission has recently been granted for the redevelopment of the site for a care village development with Maxims to be used for ancillary purposes. Local access to the site is unconstrained and given that the site fronts onto the A34 it has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network. If the care home development was not to come forward, a mixed-use scheme with an office component may be feasible here. There are numerous bus stops within 400m and the site has very good access to labour and services/amenities. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for mixed use with an element of employment if it becomes available

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Lowlands Road, Ravensdale (NLP Ref: NL30)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 3.31 ha Environmental Constraints ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 3.31 ha This greenfield site fronts onto Lowlands Road and is situated in open countryside, immediately to the east of the mainline. Totalling 3.31ha, the site is accessed via Bathpool Park’s car park, which has access to Lowlands Road. The site is level and mainly comprises a mixture of grassland and trees. It is, however, located within the Green Belt and c.90% of the site forms part of Bathpool Park, a designated nature reserve. In addition, in 2005 a great crested newt migration scheme was due to transfergreat crested newts to Bathpool Park55.These protected newts may therefore potentially have habitats on the site. A footpath extends around the eastern side of the site from which it is highly visible. There are no nearby amenities or services, access to labour is considered poor, and there are no bus stops within 400m of the site. Conversely, Lowlands Road has been developed to a good standard making this site very accessible to the strategic road network. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

55 See: http://moderngov.newcastle-staffs.gov.uk/CeConvert2PDF.aspx?MID=1158&F=planning%20minutes-11-10- 2005%20Word%20%2869K%29.doc&A=0&R=0

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Lymedale Park, Holditch, Chesterton (NLP Ref: NL31)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 12.39 ha Establishing an access point/risk of great crested ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 11.15 ha newts/lack of market interest This long irregular shaped site lies directly to the south of Lymedale Business Park, adjoining land that has been developed out as Lymedale Business Centre and a distribution unit occupied New Look. It comprises an area of open land and appears to include grassed over spoil material that was possibly moved here when Lymedale Business Park was developed. Redevelopment of the site will be constrained by its irregular shape, and a pylon is situated on the site which will reduce the net developable area even further. Providing access from Lymedale Business Park onto the site appears to be only feasible by constructing a new junction off Ore Place and, if this is the case, the new service road for this site will need to extend across uneven land. It is also noted that great crested newts were identified in various locations within 1km of the site in 201256 and given that these are protected species, this risk suggests that mitigation measures would need to be undertaken before any development can occur here. There are no nearby services or amenities, and while there are 8 bus stops within 400m of this site these are mostly situated in the residential areas that lie to the south and southeast and access to these stops may be limited when this site is developed. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for employment use

56 as detailed in the document available via this link: http://apps.staffordshire.gov.uk/TrimDocProvider/?ID=003/07/06/04/23125

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Nelson Place (Jubilee Baths) - Town Centre, School Street (NLP Ref: NL32)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.63 ha Lack of market interest/No possibility for on-site ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha car parking This irregular shaped site (0.63 ha) fronts onto Brunswick Street (the A52), near to Nelson Place Roundabout; and is bordered by Barracks Road (the A527) and Windsor Street in the west and south respectively. Up until very recently, a relatively large 20th century building(Nelson Place, the former Jubilee Pool) occupied the northwest corner of the site. However, this has now been demolished to make way for a 244-room student development57. However, the surface carpark remains unaffected by the development. Immediately to the east of the old swimming pool building is the Jubilee 2 leisure centre; whereas alongside the carpark there is a two storey office building, two restaurant units and a medium sized B8 unit. All of this stock has recently been developed and is of good quality, and both the office accommodation and the B8 unit are in use. Housing also borders the car park on the east. When the site was inspected the car park was almost full and there seems to be very little scope of providing further infill on this site. Barracks Road was relatively congested when this site was visited which may constrain vehicular access to/from this site. The site is just a short walk away from the bus station and is very near to the A34, so has excellent access to public transport and the strategic road network. It also has very good access to labour and amenities/services. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

57 As per application ref: 15/00166/FUL

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Parkhouse Road West, Chesterton (NLP Ref: NL33)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 3.96 ha Part of the site is an historic landfill ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 3.56 ha Totalling 3.9 ha, this site is used for recreational purposes and is situated on the eastern side of Crackley Bank at its junction with Parkhouse Road West. The area to the west of Crackley Bank comprises housing, and immediately to the east of the site is Parkhouse Industrial Estate, which comprises a mix of B8, B2 and light industrial units/workshops. The site has a sloping topography and comprises an area of open land with trees, which effectively buffers the nearby housing from the employment activities on the industrial estate. Prior to taking this form, it was used for industrial purposes and c.1.8ha of the site is designated as historic landfill. While it has exceptionally good access to the strategic road network (the A34), and there are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site, it is considered unsuitable for employment use. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Pepper St, Keele (NLP Ref: NL34)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.35 ha Isolated location/Lack of market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.35 ha [Note: It was not possible to take a picture of this site. The photo is of a unit adjacent to the site.] This small site (0.35ha) is located in the Green Belt. It lies approximately 250m southwest of Silverdale, about 1km north of Keele Village and is situated to the rear of a small garage (operated by JS Cotton), so has no frontage onto Pepper Street. The site comprises several former tilery buildings that are in state of disrepair/ dilapidation and which do not appear to be in use. Alongside the site is the main tilery building which seemingly is being used for pallet storage. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. Silverdale has a good range of shops and services which are relatively accessible from the site. However, the site is constrained by having poor access to labour and the strategic road network – it’s approximately 3.4km to the strategic road network (the A34) via a constrained route through residential areas. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for alternative uses

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Red Street (NLP Ref: NL35)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 33.24 ha Environmental Constraints/infrastructure needed ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 24.93 ha Located immediately to the south of the A500/A34 and covering an area that extends westwards from the A34 towards the village of Red Street, this is a greenfield site amounting to 33.24ha, which has a sloping topography and comprises fields used for farming and a number of properties. There are a number of residential properties in Red Street that are close proximity to the site, but otherwise it is surrounded by fields and a series of roads. It is situated in the Green Belt and part of it falls within a coalfield high risk area, so remedial work may need to be conducted. Infrastructure costs may be also be high given this is a greenfield site. Potentially, site access could be provided via Bell's Hollow, a road which links directly onto the A34, although this will need to be improved, especially as this section of the A34 is a dual carriage. There are no nearby services or amenities, and while there are numerous bus stops within 400m all of these are located within Red Street, and most of this site is therefore considered to have reasonably poor connectivity with public transport. However, access to labour is good. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Very Poor SITE RECOMMENDATION: Do not consider for employment use

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Rowhurst Close, Chesterton (NLP Ref: NL36)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 18.73 ha Lack of market interest/historic landfill ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 3.5ha This site amounts to 18.7ha this site consists of two separate parcels of land that effectively form part of Rowhurst Industrial Estate, an established employment area on the western outskirts of Chesterton, which mainly comprises a mix of industrial accommodation. Both plots have irregular shapes which will limit their net developable areas. One of the plots borders the brickworks, and this comprises an area of grassland and scrub that is yet to be developed. The other plot is partly flanked by a recently developed industrial building, used by AVR Armstrong Vehicle Recycling to the east and by a parcel of land used mainly for the storage of cranes and plant equipment to the west. And this plot, which is also undeveloped, is solely used to provide vehicular access to a large scrap yard that adjoins the building occupied by AVR Armstrong Vehicle Recycling. There are historic landfills on both these plots, relating in overall terms to c.7.4ha. In addition, there are no nearby amenities or services. Conversely, the site has reasonably good access to the strategic road network (the A34) and there are numerous bus stops within 400m of the site. Ultimately, these parcels of land are ideally suited for (B1, B2 and B8) employment use. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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West Avenue, Kidsgrove (NLP Ref: NL37)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.05 ha Lack of market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 2.05 ha This employment site totals 2.05 ha and is situated on the west side of West Avenue, relatively near to Congleton Road (A34). While the site is situated on the Nelson Industrial Estate the surrounding area is mixed in terms of character and includes nearby housing (to the north). The site was formerly occupied by AAH Pharmaceuticals, a long standing occupier on the Nelson Industrial Estate, but it has remained vacant since the firm moved to its new premises58, which is situated immediately to the south of this site. The site is overgrown, generally neglected and nothing now remains of any former buildings. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. On the opposite side of West Avenue a new 172 bed housing scheme has recently been developed and this may restrict the possibility of redeveloping the site to provide B2/B8 accommodation, and as stated earlier, there is evidence to suggest that there is very little demand for any form of commercial accommodation in the area - see NL38. There are a number of shops and services on Old Butt Lane which is very close proximity to the site, it has adequate access to labour, and within 400m of the site there are numerous bus stops. However, whilst the site has good access to the A34, in this study this section of the A34 is not considered to be part of the strategic road network and instead this is located c. 2.7km from the site at the A34/A500 interchange. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

58 As is the subject of application ref: 05/313/FUL

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Land off Linley Road, Kidsgrove (NLP Ref: NL38)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.59 ha Lack of market interest/Pressure to develop ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 2.59 ha housing on the site Totalling 2.59ha this site is situated on the north side of Linley Road close to the junction with Congleton Road (A34). To north and east of the site is Nelson Industrial Estate, whereas to the south there is housing on Tollgate Close and Walton Way. Formerly the site comprised a warehouse (class B8) and ancillary buildings amounting to 15,150 sqm59, but this has been demolished and the site is now cleared, oven ready for redevelopment. In 2014 permission was granted to redevelop the site by providing a foodstore together with 14 commercial units (Class B1, B2 and B8) with an overall floor area of 8,726 sqm60. Furthermore in 2014, outline permission was granted to redevelop the site to provide 139 new houses61. Evidence submitted in support of the residential proposal highlighted that there was no market demand for the commercial proposal. There are a number of shops and services on Old Butt Lane which is just short a distance from the site and bus stops are located on Newcastle Road (the A34), less than 300m from the site with a bus service running every 20 minutes connecting Hanley, Newcastle and Kidsgrove with its railway station. However, whilst the site has good access to the A34, in this study this section of the A34 is not considered to be part of the strategic road network and instead this is located c. 2.7km from the site at the A34/A500 interchange. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Consider for alternative uses (if extant planning permission lapses)

59 Figure derived for the 2005 rating list 60 As per applications ref: 10/00080/OUT and 14/00363/REM 61 As per application ref: 13/00625/OUT

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Station Rd, Kidsgrove (NLP Ref: NL39)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.91 ha Lack of market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0.91 ha This small, cleared site (0.91 hectares) is allocated for B1, B2 and B8 development under saved policy E6 of the Newcastle-Under-Lyme Local Plan 2011. It is located alongside Kidsgrove railway station and is flanked by the Trent & Mersey Canal to the north, south and east, and by railway lines to the west. Both the station and the site are accessed via a road bridge that extends across the canal. The site has a restrictive shape and the station is used for commuting and therefore traffic levels across the bridge may be high at certain times of the day. Furthermore, it has recently been reported that the station is earmarked to be improved, possibly resulting in a need to use this site for additional car parking62. The site is very close to Liverpool Road (the A50) and within 400m of the site there are numerous bus stops. Potentially, a minor rail siding for freight use could be developed here. However, the entire site falls within a coalfield high risk area so remedial work may need to be conducted. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

62 “Kidsgrove station on track for £5.5m revamp”, The Sentinel (24/03/2015): http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/Kidsgrove-station-track- 5-5m-revamp/story-26225280-detail/story.html

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Keele Science Park Phase 3, University of Keele (NLP Ref: NL40)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 28.73 ha Science park, hence take-up of employment ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 14.5 land is likely to be relatively gradual ha This 28.7ha site is situated in the grounds of Keele University approximately 3kms to the west of Newcastle and is earmarked to be an extension to its science park. The site is divided into twelve developable plots that have a combined area of 14.5ha (net). Like the existing science park it is primarily intended for use by research and development, medical and other hi-tech companies, including spin-off firms from the University – activities that fall within class B1 offices. It is noted that a series of improvements have been made to local roads and roundabouts and as a result of this work the site benefits from exceptionally good local access. No development or environmental constraints were identified, there are nearby amenities/services, and 5 bus stops are located within 400m of the site. However, while it is appreciated that work has recently started on the speculative development of the 2,790sqm IC5 building on small plot on the western side of the site, as the site forms part of a science park that is being specifically targeted at a specific type of office occupier the take-up of land here may be relatively gradual. Given the location of the site it is also viewed as having fairly poor access to labour and the strategic road network. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Water Street/George Street, Newcastle (NLP Ref: NL41)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 0.24 ha N/A (fully developed) ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 0 ha On the opposite side of Brunswick Street (the A52) from the former the Zanzibar Ballroom (see NLP2) is another small site (0.24 ha), which is bounded by Water Street in the west and by Seagrave Street in the east. The surrounding area is mixed in character and housing borders the site on Water Street. The site is fully developed. On Brunswick Street it consists of a two storey residential property now occupied by UK Home Improvements (so in use as B1 offices) adjacent to which there is a mainly single storey building that 4Fit Ultimate. To the rear of this is a small cluster of workshop units, including a garage which fronts onto Seagrave Street. Generally, this stock looks dated/poorly specified, although none of the units appeared to be vacant. While it may fulfil a local requirement of providing affordable business space, this accommodation is considered to have very limited market appeal. Local access to the site is unconstrained and no development or environmental constraints were identified. The site very has good access to the strategic road network, public transport, labour and services/amenities. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Good SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

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Land and Buildings at West Avenue, Kidsgrove (NLP Ref: NL42)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.69 ha Lack of market interest ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 2.69 ha This employment site totals 2.69 ha and is situated on the eastside of West Avenue, relatively near to Congleton Road (A34). The site forms part of Nelson Industrial Estate and used to be larger, but some of that land has recently been redeveloped to provide a housing scheme comprising 172 dwellings63. Consequently, the site now borders with housing in the northeast. Formerly it comprised a single building in industrial use but this has been demolished and there is a planning permission in place to provide a new 4,645 sqm industrial unit (within class B1, B2 and B8) 64. Ground clearance works were being progressed when the site was visited, although it is considered that the speculative development of this unit is unlikely to occur. There are a number of shops and services on Old Butt Lane which is just short a distance from the site, and within 400m there are numerous bus stops. However, whilst the site has good access to the A34, this section of the A34 is not considered to be part of the strategic road network. Instead this is located c. 2.7km from the site at the A34/A500 interchange. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

63 As per applications ref: 10/00244/REM and 11/00237/OUT 64 As per application ref: 14/00736/FUL

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Chemical Lane Site (NLP Ref: NL43)

BARRIERS TO DELIVERY: GROSS SITE AREA: 2.56 ha Etruria Mural may underlie the site ESTIMATED NET DEVELOPABLE AREA: 2.56 ha Allocated for B-use development under saved policy E6 of the Newcastle-Under-Lyme Local Plan 2011, this 2.56ha site fronts onto the northern side of Chemical Lane, immediately to the west of the mainline. Presently, the site is undeveloped and mainly comprises trees and shrubs, although it has regular shape and is level. The site is in very close proximity to the A500/A527 interchange, although there is a nearby HGV fuel station and when this is busy HGVs queue up on Chemical Lane which may constrain access to the strategic road network. There are no nearby amenities or services, and similarly there are no bus stops within 400m of the site. Also, viable reserves of Etruria Marl underlie the site and in accordance with the Mineral Local Plan this will need to be proved and if found, provision made for its extraction prior to any development occurring here. It is noted that this site is currently on the market. This site is likely to be particularly suitable for B2/B8 uses. OVERALL SITE GRADE: Average SITE RECOMMENDATION: Retain for employment use

9932770v7 Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent : Joint Employment Land Review

Appendix 7 Experian’s Data Guide to its UK Regional Planning Service Model

9135951v13

FData Guide UK Regional Planning Service June 2015 ful

Our main subscription website: http://economics.experian.co.uk/

Our latest views: http://www.experian.co.uk/economics/latest-views-weekly-topic-of-focus.html

Data Guide UK Regional Planning Service June 2015

Contents

______Executive summary ...... 1 1 Variable Coverage ...... 2 2 Historical End-points ...... 3 3 Methodology ...... 5 3.1 UK Methodology ...... 5 3.2 Regional methodology ...... 6 3.3 Local methodology ...... 10 4 Key changes since March 2015 RPS ...... 13 4.1 UK forecast (SB/MC) ...... 13 4.2 Regional Forecast ...... 14 4.3 Local Forecast ...... 15 5 A note from the ONS on volatility ...... 16 Appendix A….Glossary of terms ...... 17 Appendix B…Sector definitions ...... 20 Appendix C…Geography definitions ...... 24 Appendix D…FAQ’s ...... 25

Executive summary

This document outlines the current variable coverage in the March 2015 version of the UK Regional Planning Service, and the methodology behind the history and forecast.

Appendix A includes a glossary of terms. Appendix B includes our definitions of the sectors.

Appendix C has the geography definitions. Appendix D contains the most common Frequently Asked Questions

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This output is based on and comprises both your input and information sourced from third parties (which may include public data sources). Whilst we will use all reasonable care and skill in the collection and collation of this output we cannot warrant or guarantee the accuracy of the output. You acknowledge that outputs which use empirical data and/or statistical data and/or data modelling techniques cannot be taken as a guarantee of any particular outcome and are not intended to be the sole basis of your business decisions. Our standard terms of business apply.

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1 Variable Coverage

Figure 1.1: Variable coverage in the RPS

 √ indicates that the variable is available in both the search query tool and the xls files.  Xls indicates that the variable is available in the xls but not the search query tool.  UK monthly forecast indicates that the variable is not produced as part of the RPS but can be found in the monthly UK macro forecast on our website.

County & Variable UK Region Local Authority

PRODUCTION GDP UK monthly forecast GDP by component of demand UK monthly forecast Gross Value Added √ √ √ GVA by sectors √ √ √ LABOUR MARKET Employees by sector √ √ √ Self-employed by sector √ √ √ Government Trainees by sector xls xls Upon request Her Majesties Forces Total xls xls Upon request FTE Employment by sector √ √ √ Total ILO Employment – Residence √ √ √ based & Workplace based ILO Unemployment √ √ √ Unemployment rate √ √ √ Claimant Count xls xls Upon request Claimant Count rate xls xls Upon request Labour Force xls xls Upon request Activity Rate xls xls Upon request Inactivity Rate xls xls Upon request DEMOGRAPHICS Population: √ √ √ Total, Adult (16+) Age bands: 0-15, State Working age, State retirement √ √ √ 16-64, 65+ Population by single or 5 year age band Upon request Upon request Upon request HOUSEHOLDS Nominal disposable Income √ √ √ Real disposable income √ √ √ Nominal income by component xls xls Upon request Nominal consumer spending √ √ √ Real consumer spending √ √ √ Consumer spending by COICOP Upon request Upon request category Cost of Living Index √ √ House price Index √ √ Upon request Hours worked Upon request Upon request Upon request

© Experian Plc 2015 2

2 Historical End-points

Figure 1.2: Last historic data point

County & Variable UK Region Local Authority

Gross Value Added 2014q4 2013q4 2013q4 GVA by sectors 2014q4 2013q4 2013q4 Labour market variables 2014q4 2014q4 All 2013q4 except ILO 2014q4 Income 2014q4 2014q4 2012q4 Consumer spending 2014q4 2013q4 2012q4

The historical end-point represents the last period in time for which we apply our processes to collect, calculate or derive data, details of which can be found in chapter 3: Methodology. All time-periods that are in the past but follow the historical end-point are Experian Economics’ estimates.

We have not used any regional data published after May 1st 2015 in producing this update of the RPS. It is possible that between this date and the release of the RPS some new history may have been released and/or revised.

Population

The population data provided are the Office for National Statistics (ONS) mid-year-estimates to 1997- 2013 (revised 2002-2010). The ONS 2012-based sub-national population projections by single-year age band have been spliced onto the 2013 mid-year estimates and constrained to the 2012 national projections.

UK forecast

This forecast is consistent with an Experian Economics’ May 2015 macroeconomic forecast which includes the headline national account number for 2014q4. We explore this further in section 4.

Geographic boundaries

As communicated in previous data guides, we publish data on post-2009 local authority boundaries.

With the ONS gradually phasing out the publication of data on the pre-2009 local authority boundaries, it had become increasingly less credible for Experian to publish up-to-date historical data on these definitions. The table below shows those local authorities which no longer exist as individual entities (2nd column) and the name of the new local authority that has been created by their merger.

Region Disbanded local authorities Merged to form: North East Chester-le-Street, Derwentside, Durham, Easington, County Durham Sedgefield, Teesdale, Wear Valley

Alnwick, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Blyth Valley, Castle Northumberland Morpeth, Tynedale, Wansbeck

North West Congleton, Crewe & Nantwich, Macclesfield Cheshire East

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Chester, Ellesmere Port & Neston, Vale Royal Cheshire West & Chester

West Bridgnorth, North Shropshire, Oswestry, Shrewsbury & Shropshire Midlands Atcham, South Shropshire

East of Mid Bedfordshire, South Bedfordshire Central Bedfordshire England:

South West Caradon, Carrick, Kerrier North Cornwall, Penwith, Cornwall Restormel Kennet, North Wiltshire, Salisbury, West Wiltshire Wiltshire

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3 Methodology 3.1 UK Methodology

The approach for the regional planning service takes the UK variables as exogenous, imposed from the monthly UK forecast.

To produce the UK forecast we use a heavily customised version of the National Institute of Social & Economic Research’s (NISER) model called NIGEM to provide our core macroeconomic forecast.

NIGEM is a general equilibrium model of the UK and World economy which forecasts, amongst other variables, aggregate GVA, expenditure, income and employment based on the UK National Accounts published by the Office of National Statistics.

To split this core forecast out into industries and sub-sectors we have a Sectoral Model which expands on the forecasts from the core NIGEM model.

We disaggregate total consumption (C), investment (I), government spending (G), stocks (S), exports (X) and imports (M) from NIGEM to a finer level of detail. This provides a highly detailed model of demand (Q) for industry GVA in the UK economy. Using convertors derived from the ONS Supply and Use Tables, we convert demand into intermediate (VAI) and final (VAF) value added for each sector. This provides a comprehensive view of how value added is distributed across sectors. The growth rate of total value added (VA) for each industry determines its GVA (Y) growth rate. GVA is constrained in order to forecast total GVA from NIGEM. This Input-Output based model is iterative and captures intra- industry demand.

The industry GVA forecast is used together with wage forecasts to forecast employment by sector (E).

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3.2 Regional methodology

3.2.1 History

All economic history used in the RPS is derived from official statistics published by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS). Our approach is to use existing statistics in the form they are published to the greatest extent possible. However, this is subject to the following exceptions:

 where there is a lag between an update of aggregate data and the corresponding disaggregation, the disaggregate data is constrained to match the latest aggregates;  where ONS data is not published at quarterly frequency (for instance it is only annual data), we use a consistent methodology (described below) to construct quarterly data;  where ONS data is not published at the geography required or in the detail required, we use a consistent methodology to add the necessary data ensuring that it constraints to published data at a higher level of geography or detail;  on occasion, where ONS data is internally inconsistent we apply techniques to remove these inconsistencies.

The most timely and reliable data at the regional level is the workforce jobs series, published on a quarterly frequency by the ONS. Employee jobs, self-employed jobs and government trainees are published at the level of the SIC 2007 Section providing us with 22 sectors.1 In order to disaggregate this Section-level data to 2-digit sectors from which we can construct the Experian 38 sectors we use official survey data:

 In the case of employee jobs, we use the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) and Business Register & Employment Survey (BRES). These are annual surveys which are not updated after being published – further the methodology has changed over the lifetime of these surveys. We apply a principled set of rules to derive consistent employee job shares within the Sections from the surveys.  The June 2015 RPS uses the 2014 BRES, which provides data up to 2013. A new BRES will be published at the end of 2015 and will provide data up to 2014. Pre-2010 we have made a working-owners adjustment, based on an overlapping year published by NOMIS in February 2013, in line with their recommended techniques for dealing with discontinuities.

 In the case of self-employed jobs, we use data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

Workforce jobs is the sum of employee jobs, self-employed jobs, government trainees and Her Majesty’s Forces (who are assigned at the sector level to Public Administration and Defence.)

To estimate full-time equivalent employment (FTE), we use data on hours worked in each sector and region derived from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). ASHE is also used to derive wage data for each region and sector.2 We also use, for this purpose, compensation of employee data from the regional accounts.

GVA measured on the income basis is published in the regional accounts at an annual frequency in current prices. Total GVA lags the latest complete year by 12 months while the industry detail lags by a further year. (i.e. the regional accounts published in December 2014 contained GVA by region up to and including 2013 with industry detail up to and including 2012). With the exception of manufacturing, the industry detail is only at the section level. Beginning with the December 2013 Regional Accounts

1 The ONS has ceased publishing official 2-digit employee jobs data for the regions. The approach we have taken is consistent with the approach recommended by the ONS to derive 2-digit estimates. 2 We do not routinely publish sector level wage forecasts; however, it is available on request.

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(which were first incorporated in the March 2014 RPS), manufacturing GVA is available at the sub- section level. To construct the Chain Volume Measure data we follow these steps:  the data is disaggregated and made quarterly using workforce jobs data;  the data is deflated at the industry level using the UK deflators for the industries;  the data is aggregated to produce a regional total – this implicitly creates a regional deflator by taking into account the different weightings of industries within a region.

In the Regional Accounts, the ONS has published experimental alternate GVA accounts on the production basis; these accounts include an estimate of chain volume measure (CVM) GVA for the regions. We have not incorporated these data for the reasons given in the FAQs (Appendix D.)

Income is published in the regional accounts on an annual basis with a full breakdown of income sources and deductions. Income sources are:  compensation of employees : wages and salaries plus employers social contributions  self-employment income  Net Property Income : made up of property income received less income paid  transfers from the State (i.e. benefits and pensions)  other Transfers Income deductions are:  taxes  social contributions  transfers to others

The sum of income sources less income deductions constitutes disposable income. To convert this annual data to quarterly jobs we use (depending on the component) employee jobs, self-employee jobs or the UK quarterly pattern. We constrain these quarterly series to the official UK published data. Real disposable income is obtained by deflating disposable income by the consumer price deflator.

Household spending is derived by sharing out UK nominal expenditure using regional shares of expenditure reported in the Living Costs and Food Survey by type of expenditure. Nominal regional spending is deflated by published UK deflators and then aggregated to produce a regional total. This again implicitly creates a regional cost of living measure which we also publish.

Population projections are obtained from the ONS (2012 projections) and spliced onto the 2013 mid- year-estimates, constrained to the latest national 2012 projections. The mid-year estimates have been revised back to 2002, taking into account the 2011 census results. These were taken into account in the December 2014 RPS so the population numbers are unchanged between then and now.

Our working-age definition incorporates all announced future changes in the state pension age:

 The state pension age for women is rising from 60 to 65, equal with males. Both will then rise in step to 67 in our current forecast period.

 Female state retirement age started to increase from 60 in April 2012 and will reach 65 by 2018q4.

 From April 2019, both men and women will see their state retirement age rise from 65 to 66, with men reaching 66 by April 2020, and women a few months later in October 2020.

 The move from 66 to 67 is scheduled from April 2026 until April 2028 for both men and women.

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In the 2013 Autumn statement it was announced that the rise in state pension age to 68 would be moved forward from 2046 to the mid-2030’s. However, with no firm date, we have not yet incorporated this into our working age and state retirement age definitions.

We publish the following breakdown of population: school age (ages 0-15), state working age, state retirement age, adult population (16 and over) and total. Beginning in the March 2015 RPS, we also publish both the population aged 16-64 and 65 and over. Although their respective participation rates are not published, they can be derived. Our overall participation rate is based on a ratio of the total labour force to the entire adult population (not only the working age population).

3.2.2 Forecast

The regional model is sequential. Each variable is dependent only on variables earlier in the sequence and not variables later in the sequence. Variables are either workplace-based (red outlined boxes) or residence-based (green-outlined boxes.) Workplace-based and residence-based variables are linked by commuting relationships derived from the Annual Population Survey.

Population Participation Commuting aged 16-64 rate 16-64 Residential Labour Force Population Participation aged 65+ rate 65+ Available Labour Force

Residence- Commuting Workplace- based based employment employment

Unemployment Hours

Income Workforce jobs

Household House Prices Wages Expenditure

GVA

The population – split into two age ranges – is taken from the National and Sub-National Population Projections. We forecast participation rates for these age bands separately as they are subject to different trends. The total residential labour force is the sum of the labour force aged 16-64 and 65- plus. The aggregate participation rate is determined by two factors:

 The participation rate of the two age bands; and

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 The share of each of the two age bands in the adult population.

The participation rate for those aged 16-64 is expected to remain relatively stable throughout the forecasting period. However, the rate for those aged 65 and over will grow strongly due to factors such as increasing life expectancy and rising state pension ages.

At the UK level, the share of the adult population aged 65 and over is projected to rise sharply over the next twenty years. There is, however, considerable variation at the regional level. Greater London – the youngest region in the UK – is projected to have a stable share.

These factors combine to produce substantial variation in the labour force forecasts for different regions.

Commuting flows are used to derive the available labour force for a region. This is:

Workers Resident in the Region – Workers Commuting Out + Workers Commuting In

In the case of Greater London, the South East and the East of England, these flows lead to a substantial difference between the residential labour force and the available labour force. The effect is still present but less pronounced in other regions.

The available labour force is one of the drivers in forecasting workplace-based employment. The other drivers include the industry mix and the performance of industries at the UK level. If industries with a high share in the region are performing well at the UK level, this will benefit the region.

The workplace-based employment is converted back into residence-based employment. This is:

Workplace-based Employment – Workers Living Elsewhere + Residents Working Elsewhere

From this point, residence and workplace based variables are solved in parallel with residence-based variables dependent on residence-based employment and workplace-based variables dependent on workplace-based employment.

The residential labour force and residence-based employment are used to calculate unemployment. Residential income is driven by employment; and itself drives house price and household expenditure forecasts.

Workplace-based employment drives aggregate hours worked, wages and GVA. These aggregate variables feed into the detailed part of the model, which produces forecasts for each industry:

In each case, we forecast shares of the region within the UK industry. We then share out the UK industry data subject to the constraint of the total that has already been determined and the UK total.

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3.3 Local methodology

3.3.1 History

As at the regional level, all local economic history used in the RPS is derived from official statistics published by the ONS. Our approach to using this data is identical to that given above at 3.2.1. However, data at the local level is more likely to be incomplete1 or inconsistent2 than is the case at the regional level. For this reason, there is greater call for the application of techniques to construct missing data and to remove inconsistencies than is the case at the regional level.

In all cases, local area data in a particular region is constrained to match the regional total for the same variable. This has two particular advantages:  Local data is made consistent with regional data of the same vintage.  Where local data has been estimated or constructed, the regional data ensure that the estimates together are consistent with more reliable data.

The ONS do not publish a workforce jobs series at the local level. Accordingly, we construct workforce jobs series for each local area using BRES/ABI in the same way that BRES is used at the regional level to disaggregate section estimates. The BRES share for a particular industry of a local area in its parent region is used to disaggregate the regional workforce jobs series for that industry. As BRES is a survey, the figures over time for a particular local area industry combination can be volatile3. Further, certain years’ results may be withheld to prevent disclosure of confidential data. Accordingly, to obtain sensible data it is necessary for us to smooth out this volatility and to interpolate over the gaps.

At the local level, the most timely and comprehensive data are ILO data for residence and workplace- based employment and unemployment data on both the ILO4 and claimant count basis. These data is obtained directly from NOMIS.

Regional accounts data is provided at sub-regional level for both GVA and income as it is at the regional level. The same methods are used at the local level as at the regional level to process these data. However, sub-regional data is only published for NUTS2 and NUTS3. Since not all local authorities constitute a NUTS3, it is necessary to disaggregate these data to local level. Further, the data provided at NUTS3 are less comprehensive than those provided at NUTS25. We make use of this NUTS2 data by constraining our disaggregated NUTS3 estimates to their parent NUTS2. We then disaggregate these constrained NUTS3 data to local data3.

In the case of GVA, the data provided at NUTS2 is at the section level with sub-sectional data for manufacturing. For NUTS3, several sections are aggregated. In particular, there is less detail in the service sectors. Disaggregation (of industrial data and from NUTS3 to local data) takes place using workforce jobs data at the industry level.

In the case of Income, the data provided at NUTS2 has the same level of detail as at the regional level. For NUTS3, only primary and secondary income estimates are provided. NUTS2 data is disaggregated to NUTS3 using employee jobs (in the case of compensation of employees), self-employed jobs (in the

1 For some local areas, publication of certain data by the ONS is restricted because to do so would effectively disclose individual responses to ONS data-collection surveys (e.g. if there are only one or two firms in a certain industry in a particular locality.) 2 In some cases, sample sizes in ONS data-collection surveys at the local level are very small. This leads to data of comparatively poor quality and relatively high volatility. 3 The volatility represents sampling variability rather than actual volatility in the population data. 4 In line with ONS guidelines, we use the official model-based estimates of local unemployment that are more accurate than survey data which suffers from volatility. 5 NUTS2 is provided at the same level of detail as NUTS1 (i.e. regional) level.

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case of self-employment income), unemployment (in the case of government benefits) and the regional split (in any other case.) These estimates are then constrained for each local to the primary and secondary income estimates provided. Disaggregation from NUTS3 to local level takes place using employee jobs, self-employed jobs, unemployment or population.

No estimates of household spending are provided at the local level. Household spending is, therefore, derived by using the share of local disposable income in regional disposable income.

3.3.2 Forecast

The local authority model is run separately for the local authorities in each region and takes the regional forecast as given. Accordingly, as with local history, local forecasts are constrained to the regional forecasts of the parent region.

Our local model is based on the resolution of demand and supply for labour and takes into account commuting between local areas within a region and across the regional boundary. The properties of the model are these:  When unemployment is low, labour supply growth is the key determinant of growth.  When unemployment is high, growth in demand for labour is the key determinant of growth.  As unemployment decreases, o Labour supply growth becomes relatively more important o Growth in demand for labour becomes relatively less important  An area’s workplace employment growth depends on labour supply not only in the area but also o Labour supply growth in other local areas in the region from which it has historically drawn inward commuters. o Its historic share of incoming workers across the regional boundary.  An area’s residence based employment growth depends on demand for labour not only in the area but also o Growth in demand for labour in other local areas in the region to which it has historically supplied commuters. o Its historic share of outgoing workers commuting across the regional boundary.  Workplace based employment drives GVA growth.  Residence based employment drives Income and, accordingly, spending growth.

The starting point is an estimate of the growth in the participation rate of those aged 16-64 and 65-plus in a local area. These are used to derive labour force growth.

In parallel, demand for labour is estimated. This is done at the industry level by linking job growth1 in a local area to growth in the same industry at the regional level and then constraining demand for jobs by industry to demand for jobs for the same industry at the regional level. The effect of this is:  Demand for jobs at the local level is fastest in those industries which are performing best at the regional level.  Total demand for jobs at the local level depends on its industrial structure. Those local areas which have a more than proportionate share of the best performing industries will perform best overall.

The supply and demand for labour is then resolved in the following way:

 Total demand2 for jobs for each local area is converted into demand for workers according to the historic ratio between jobs and workers into that local area.

1 Separately for employee jobs, self-employee jobs, government trainee jobs and Her Majesty’s Forces. 2 i.e. all industries and job types aggregated.

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 The inflow and outflow of workers across the regional boundary is shared out between local areas according to their historic commuting patterns leading to an adjustment in o The remaining demand for labour for a local area (inflow) o The remaining available labour for a local area (outflow)  Workplace demands for workers are converted into residence-based demands according to historic commuting patterns. o If unemployment is sufficiently high, these demands are satisfied out of the growth in the labour supply and the pool of available (unemployed) workers. o If unemployment is sufficiently low, these demands can only be satisfied out of the growth in the labour supply. o If unemployment is above its lower bound but not too high, a proportion of demands are satisfied out of the pool of available workers and the rest are satisfied out of the growth in the labour supply. o The model makes short-term adjustments in the labour supply in response to demand conditions to reflect the economic reality that . When demand is high, the participation rate rises as potential workers are drawn into the labour force by the relatively buoyant conditions; . When demand is low, the participation rate declines as disillusioned workers leave the labour force because of the poor job market conditions; o The unemployment rate, accordingly, behaves as expected.  The satisfied residence supply for labour is converted back into workplace demands and workplace based employment is calculated for each local area. This is then converted back into jobs and used to produce final workforce jobs estimates for each local area.

The consequence of this is that:  Local areas with high demand may not see all of that demand satisfied if there is insufficient available labour supply to meet those needs. Jobs growth will, accordingly, be slower.  Local areas with high labour supply may not see higher growth in residence employment if there is insufficient demand for labour to use it up.

GVA growth is then forecast based on growth in workplace-based employment according to equations which link GVA growth to workplace-based employment. Income is forecast by component based on residence based employment (in the case of compensation for employees or self-employment), unemployment (in the case of benefits) and population in any other case. Spending depends on income by component.

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4 Key changes since March 2015 RPS

4.1 UK forecast

The June 2015 RPS forecast is consistent with the May 2015 UK macro forecast.

The second estimate of GDP for 2015q1 confirmed that the economy grew by 0.3% q-o-q in real terms, unrevised from the first estimate. Growth in the year to the first quarter was also unrevised, at 2.8%. This was the second consecutive quarter of slowdown in UK economic growth - from 0.5% in 2014q4 to 0.3% in the first quarter of 2015. Declining construction and oil output once again were the key drags on activity.

The March 2015 RPS was consistent with the January 2015 UK macro forecast. The main change to our forecast is an upgrade in the outlook for real incomes. This stems from the upturn in household finances in recent months amid extremely low inflation, rising wages and strong employment growth. We expect these factors to continue to support consumer confidence and real income growth in the months.

June RPS forecast. Previous forecast (Jan 2015 macro = March RPS) in brackets.

UK 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2025 2026-2035 2.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% GDP growth 2.60% 2.40% 2.20% 2.20% (2.4%) (2.4%) Workforce Jobs 3.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% growth 3.50% 1.50% 1.00% 0.80% (0.8%) (0.8%) 6.2% 5.5% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5.1% Unemployment rate 6.20% 5.70% 5.40% 5.30% (5.2%) (5.3%) 0.6% 3.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% Real Income growth 1.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.20% (2.3%) (2.5%) Spending Volumes 2.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% growth 2.30% 2.60% 2.10% 2.10% (2.3%) (2.3%) 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 3.5% House price growth 10.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.80% (2.6%) (3.5%)

May UK Outlook

The following was the outlook in May, consistent with the regional forecast. Our UK macro view is updated monthly and can be found on our website http://economics.experian.co.uk.

The disappointing 2015q1 outcome of growth at 0.3% q-on-q was confirmed in the second estimate. A sharp deterioration in the UK’s net trade position offset a very strong performance from the domestic economy, frustrating hopes of an upward revision. The weakness of net trade was highlighted by a surge in imports reflecting buoyant domestic activity while exports were subdued by weak conditions in major markets and sterling strength.

The key question remains whether the upturn is losing momentum. But with real incomes rising strongly, underpinning consumer spending, there is a good chance that consumer buoyancy will

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continue to drive a strong economic upturn. We believe the economy will continue to grow in the next few quarters at an annual rate of 2.4%, with an upside risk that the nascent eurozone recovery will boost exports, allowing growth to exceed this pace. However, the Greek crisis threatens a darker scenario.

The key driver of growth this year will be consumer spending, which we expect will gather momentum from the buoyant pace established in 2014. A marked rise in real disposable incomes (+3.4%) will boost spending power. The expected advance in spending of 2.6% will be the strongest since 2007.

With the first rise in interest rates expected to be in early 2016, a significant impact on exposed households and on consumer demand will not be felt until 2017 or even 2018.

The strong economic performance of the past two years means that the UK economy has recovered ground lost during the great recession and its aftermath more quickly than seemed likely a few years ago. But the repercussions of the recession and the ongoing travails of the eurozone are set to hamper economic progress for a few years yet.

Key risks

If the recent pick up in wage growth proves to be a false dawn, and pay growth subsides or even fails to accelerate, then our forecast of household spending growth at 3.4% in 2015 will have to be downgraded

Eurozone weakness is a continuing source of concern. Net trade is likely to remain a drag on UK growth prospects with weak overseas demand and a still relatively strong pound against the euro dampening the outlook for UK exports.

The recovery looks reasonably secure but there are pitfalls ahead, notably the new government’s intention to extend fiscal restraint. The poor state of public finances means it will be hard to avoid extending austerity well into the medium term to meet fiscal targets. Cuts could be even harsher than in the first austerity phase. Taxes may have to rise rather than fall to prevent serious cuts in public services or higher borrowing. The 2016-20 growth forecast is vulnerable to these threats.

The possibility of financial turmoil if Greece exits the euro, and concerns that tensions in Eastern Europe could escalate are downside risks to the forecast.

4.2 Regional Forecast

Given revisions at the UK level to which our regional data is constrained, changes to the history can be traced back to the following new data (March 2015 RPS endpoint in brackets):

 Regional Workforce Jobs 2014q4 (previously 2014q3)  ILO data for 2014q4 (previously 2014q3)  Annual Population Survey – revised and reweighted

It should be noted that we construct our Workplace-Based-Employment data using the Annual Population Survey while our Residence-Based-Employment and other ILO data come from the Labour Force Survey.

The Labour Force Survey was revised and reweighted in line with the 2011 Census in December 2014 and the changes incorporated into the March 2015 RPS. Subsequently, the Annual Population Survey’s Workplace-Based-Employment numbers have been revised and reweighted to the 2011 Census and are incorporated, for the first time into this June 2015 RPS.

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Some regions were revised more than others. The East of England saw Workplace-Based-Employment revised up by around 8% over the period 2004-2014. The other regional revisions were in a band of 0% to -1% in 2004, growing to +2% (London) to -4% (Yorkshire & the Humber and the North East) in 2014.

As mentioned in section 3, our model makes use of the relationship between workforce jobs and workplace-based employment, and residence-based employment and workplace-based employment so a change in either relationship will impact upon our forecasts.

For more information about how the history is constructed refer to section 3.2.1 for regions and section 3.3.1 for local authorities.

June 2015 RPS forecast. Previous forecast (March 2015 RPS) in brackets.

Regional forecast SW SE GL ET EM WM NW NE YH SC WA NI 2016-35 ave. growth 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% GDP growth (2.3%) (2.6%) (2.8%) (2.5%) (2.2%) (2.2%) (2.1%) (2%) (2.2%) (2.1%) (2.1%) (2.1%) Workforce 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% Jobs growth (0.8%) (0.9%) (1%) (0.9%) (0.7%) (0.7%) (0.6%) (0.6%) (0.7%) (0.5%) (0.6%) (0.6%) Unemployment 4.1% 3.8% 6.6% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 4.9% 6.4% 5.2% 4.8% 5.5% 5.7% rate (4.2%) (4%) (6.8%) (4.4%) (4.8%) (6.4%) (5.1%) (6.8%) (5.5%) (5%) (5.6%) (5.9%) Real income 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% growth (2.5%) (2.6%) (2.5%) (2.7%) (2.3%) (2.3%) (2.2%) (2%) (2.3%) (2.1%) (2.2%) (2%) Spending 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% volumes growth (2.5%) (2.5%) (2.7%) (2.4%) (2.2%) (2.1%) (2.1%) (1.9%) (2%) (2%) (1.9%) (1.9%) House price 3.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% growth (3%) (3.6%) (3.6%) (3.3%) (2.7%) (2.8%) (2.6%) (2.2%) (2.3%) (2.9%) (2.5%) (2.3%)

4.3 Local Forecast

Given revisions at the regional and UK level to which our local data is constrained, changes to the history can be traced back to the following new data (Match 2015 RPS endpoint in brackets):

 ILO data for 2014q4 (previously 2014q3)  Annual Population Survey – revised and reweighted (implications as above)

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5 A note from the ONS on volatility

A change in methodology behind Office for National Statistics (ONS) employment surveys has produced widespread volatility in the historical data, particularly from 2010.

The following is an explanation directly from the ONS, please see section 3 for more information on how we deal with volatility in the official data:

“A fundamental redevelopment of Workforce Jobs sources, classifications, methods and systems was recently undertaken and is explained clearly in the article ‘Revisions to Workforce Jobs’ (Barford 2010). One of the key changes highlighted in this article was the replacement of a matched-pairs estimator with a point-in-time ratio estimator, ONS’s standard method. This change was aimed at removing the bias caused by the matched-pairs method. A matched-pairs method tends to underestimate change over time, as it excludes the births and deaths of businesses in the sample. In essence, only those businesses sampled in two consecutive periods are used to produce estimates of change. This bias used to cause large revisions when the short-term employment surveys series were benchmarked retrospectively to Business Register Employment Survey (BRES) estimates. BRES is an annual survey which selects a larger sample and also uses a point-in-time ratio estimator. The point-in-time estimator includes all sampled businesses in each and every period, which reduces the bias over-time. The trade-off is an increase in volatility caused by the inclusion of the rotated part of the sample for small and medium sized businesses. Sample rotation spreads the administrative burden; ensuring businesses are selected for a limited number of periods. Unfortunately, the volatility of regional estimates at an industry level has been far greater than anyone anticipated and in general has been met unfavourably by users, particularly those that are interested in regional data. There are a number of instances, for example, whereby businesses have been ‘rotated in’ to a particular region and served to distort the level of jobs for a particular industry, usually for a period of 5 quarters, which is the time a rotated business remains in the sample of the STES.”

Regional employment is the most timely and only source of quarterly data at this level of geography and is used to derive the quarterly profile of other variables in our regional models. Therefore this volatility is reflected in output as well as employment. Please see section 3 for more information on how we deal with volatility in the official data.

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Appendix A….Glossary of terms Glossary of terms

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Total work done in an economy in a period measured in one of three ways:  Output Measure: Output of all goods and services less inputs  Income Measure: Income earned by all parts of the economy  Demand Measure: Demand for goods and services comprised of o Expenditure by Households, NPISH and Government o Investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) by business and Government o Changes in Inventories and Acquisitions less disposals of valuables o Exports less imports

GDP is measured in market prices: this means that the prices used to convert output of goods and services into money include taxes and subsidies by the government. Distributors’ margins are credited to the industry producing the goods and services not to the distribution industry.

Gross Value Added (GVA) GVA is identical to GDP except that it is measured in basic prices. These prices do not include taxes and subsidies imposed by the government. Distributors’ margins are credited to the distribution industry. GVA for an industry is described by either of the following identities:  GVA is identical to output of the industry less inputs of the industry  GVA is identical to the sum of o Compensation of Employees in the industry o Gross Operating Surplus (i.e. profit) earned by capital in the industry

When looking at GVA for an industry, it is important to realise that it only includes the output of that industry (i.e. the value added by that industry.) For example retailing GVA only includes the value added by retailers (e.g. customer service etc).

GVA in the RPS is measured by the place where the work is done (workplace based) and not where the worker resides.

Current Price / Chain Volume Measure (CVM) Data where the unit of measurement is money are available either in Current Price (or Nominal) terms or CVM (or Real) terms. The distinction is important because the buying power of money changes over time. For current price data, no adjustment is made for this fact. CVM data adjusts all figures in a time series to be consistent with the buying power of money in a given year (the reference year). Current Price data, thus, measures values while CVM data measures volumes. For example, Current Price GDP is the money value of production in a given period while CVM GDP is the amount of production. For years before the reference year, CVM data is not additive (thus the sum of GVA for all sectors will not equal total GVA.) In all other years, CVM data is additive.

Productivity A measure of efficiency calculated by estimating output per unit of input

Workforce Jobs A count of the total number of jobs in the UK, a region or industry. It is comprised of  Employee Jobs: The number of jobs where the occupant is an employee.  Self-employee Jobs: The number of jobs where the occupant is self-employed  Government-Sponsored Trainees: The number of jobs where the occupant is on a government training scheme.  Her Majesty’s Forces: The number of jobs in the armed forces (part of Public Administration & Defence). Workforce jobs and all its components count jobs and not people. This means that where a person has two or more jobs they are counted once for each job that they have. This can be contrasted with the ILO employment measures. Another consequence of counting jobs is that Workforce Jobs is based on the place of work not the residence of the worker

Full Time Equivalent Employment: Our definition is based on total hours worked and is as follows:

FTE = (HOURS) divided by (37.8*13)

Here a constant yard-stick of full-time employment for all industries, regions and industry-region based on thirteen working weeks in a quarter at 37.8 hours a week. 37.8 hours is the average hours worked by a full-time worker in the UK between 1990 and 2009.

ILO Employment The International Labour Organisation (ILO) provides an international standard method of measuring employment. In the UK this is implemented by means of a survey known as the Labour Force Survey (LFS) or Annual Population Survey (APS). It is a people count based on the main job that a person has. Employment comprises:  Employees: People whose main job is as an employee.  Self-employed: People whose main job is as a self-employed person.  Government-Sponsored Trainees: People whose main job is on a government training scheme.  Unpaid Family Workers: People whose main job is as an unpaid worker in a business owned by their own family. There are two measures:

 Residence based, which depends on the place of residence of the worker (irrespective of where they work.)  Workplace based, which depends on the place of work of the worker (irrespective of where they reside.)

The ILO Employment reported is based on the entire population in work ages 16+.

ILO Unemployment The International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition of unemployment covers people who are: out of work, want a job, have actively sought work in the previous four weeks and are available to start work within the next fortnight; or out of work and have accepted a job that they are waiting to start in the next fortnight. ILO unemployment is only available on a place of residence basis and is based on the entire unemployed population ages 16+.

Labour Force / Economically Active The sum of ILO Unemployment and ILO Employment. That is all people who are in work or who are looking for a work. A person who is in the labour force is said to be Economically Active. The Labour Force includes the entire Economically Active population ages 16+.

Economically Inactive A person who is not economically active. The principle categories are retirees, students, children, long-term sick or disabled, homemakers and carers. This does not include school-aged people.

Claimant Count Unemployment Measures the number of people who are claiming Jobseekers’ Allowance (JSA). This is always less than ILO Unemployment because not everyone who is ILO unemployed is eligible to claim JSA and not all who are eligible claim. Particular important cases are:

 People whose partners work more than 16 hours a week – they cannot claim JSA but may be ILO unemployed.  People who are past state retirement age – they cannot claim JSA but may be ILO unemployed.

Extra Regio In addition to the 9 English regions and the nations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the UK’s economic boundary includes the continental shelf and UK government operations abroad (i.e. embassies and HMF abroad). The ONS does not assign income or GVA attributable to these sources to any region or nation. Therefore, the sum of regional Income or GVA does not equal the UK. This also impacts on two industries Extraction & Mining and Public Administration & Defence.

School Age Population Population aged 0-15.

Working Age Population Population above the age of 15 but below the current state retirement age for their gender.

Retirement Age Population The population above state retirement age. The precise retirement date depends on date of birth and, for those born before 6th November 1953, on gender. At present, there is a phased equalisation in progress. After 6th November 2018, both men and women will retire at 65. This will rise to 66 between 6th March 2019 and 6th September 2020 and 67 between 6th April 2026 and 6th March 2027. Our forecasts take account of these changes to retirement legislation.

Adult (16+) Population Number of all people aged 16 and above.

Household Consumer Spending The accounts relate to consumption expenditure by UK resident households, either in the UK or the rest of the world. Spending by non-residents in the UK is excluded from the total Household consumption includes goods and services received by households as income in kind, in lieu of cash, imputed rent for the provision of owner-occupied housing services and consumption of own production For national accounting purposes, households are individuals or groups of people sharing living accommodation

Household Disposable Income Household disposable income is the total payment to households (from wages, interest, property income and dividends) less taxes, social security, council payments and interest

Cost of living index Regional consumer spending deflator. Gives an indication of how the value of consumer spending has grown in comparison to the volume. NUTS (Nomenclature des Unités Territoriales Statistiques – Nomeclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) A European Union standard for classifying the subdivisions of member states. In the case of the UK, the English regions and the three nations are classified as NUTS1. The next level – NUTS2 – typically consists of aggregations of local authorities in the same region. The level below that, NUTS3 consists either of single local authorities or a small aggregation of local authorities in the same NUTS2. In Scotland, some local authorities are divided between NUTS3. NUTS4 and NUTS5 also exist but are not used in the RPS.

Appendix B…Sector definitions Sector definitions

Experian 38-sector SIC-2007 division Falls within Experian 12-sector

Agriculture, Forestry & 01 Crop and animal production, hunting and Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Fishing related service activities 02 Forestry and logging 03 Fishing and aquaculture Extraction & Mining 06 Extraction of crude petroleum and natural Extraction & Mining gas 05 Mining of coal and lignite 07 Mining of metal ores 08 Other mining and quarrying 09 Mining support service activities Food, Drink & Tobacco 10 Manufacture of food products Manufacturing 11 Manufacture of beverages 12 Manufacture of tobacco products Textiles & Clothing 13 Manufacture of textiles 14 Manufacture of wearing apparel 15 Manufacture of leather and related products Wood & Paper 16 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials 17 Manufacture of paper and paper products Printing and Reproduction 18 Printing and reproduction of recorded of Recorded Media media Fuel Refining 19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products Chemicals 20 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products Pharmaceuticals 21 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations Rubber, Plastic and Other 22 Manufacture of rubber and plastic Non-Metallic Mineral products Products 23 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products Metal Products 24 Manufacture of basic metals 25 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment Computer & Electronic 26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and Products optical products

27 Manufacture of electrical equipment Machinery & Equipment 28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. Machinery & Equipment 29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 30 Manufacture of other transport equipment Other Manufacturing 31 Manufacture of furniture 32 Other manufacturing 33 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment Utilities 35 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning Utilities supply 36 Water collection, treatment and supply 37 Sewerage 38 Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery 39 Remediation activities and other waste management services. This division includes the provision of remediation services, i.e. the cleanup of contaminated buildings and sites, soil, surface or ground water. Construction of Buildings 41 Construction of buildings Construction Civil Engineering 42 Civil engineering Specialised Construction 43 Specialised construction activities Activities Wholesale 45 Wholesale and retail trade and repair of Wholesale & Retail motor vehicles and motorcycles 46 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles Retail 47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles Land Transport, Storage & 49 Land transport and transport via pipelines Transport & Storage Post 52 Warehousing and support activities for transportation 53 Postal and courier activities Air & Water Transport 50 Water transport 51 Air transport Accommodation & Food 55 Accommodation Accommodation, Food Services Services & Recreation 56 Food and beverage service activities Recreation 90 Creative, arts and entertainment activities 91 Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities 92 Gambling and betting activities 93 Sports activities and amusement and

recreation activities Media Activities 58 Publishing activities 59 Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities 60 Programming and broadcasting activities Telecoms 61 Telecommunications Computing & Information 62 Computer programming, consultancy and Information & communication Services related activities 63 Information service activities Finance 64 Financial service activities, except Finance & Insurance insurance and pension funding 66 Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities Insurance & Pensions 65 Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security Real Estate 68 Real estate activities Professional & Other Private Services Professional Services 69 Legal and accounting activities 70 Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities 71 Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis 72 Scientific research and development 73 Advertising and market research 74 Other professional, scientific and technical activities 75 Veterinary activities Administrative & 77 Rental and leasing activities Supportive Service Activities 78 Employment activities 79 Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities 80 Security and investigation activities 81 Services to buildings and landscape activities 82 Office administrative, office support and other business support activities Other Private Services 94 Activities of membership organisations 95 Repair of computers and personal and household goods 96 Other personal service activities 97 Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel 98 Undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of private households for

own use Public Administration & 84 Public administration and defence; Public Services Defence compulsory social security 99 Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies Education 85 Education Health 86 Human health activities Residential Care & Social 87 Residential care activities Work 88 Social work activities without accommodation

Appendix C…Geography definitions

We forecast at the following geographic breakdowns:

 UK

 Regions (12)

 Counties (64)

 Local authorities…post-2009 boundaries (347+33 London boroughs)

A full lookup in excel form can be found here

Appendix D…FAQ’s

 Why does Experian’s history for variable x differ from another source / raw survey data? o There are several possible reasons. o The first is a vintage mismatch. The ONS frequently revises its economic data in order to take account of new information or improved methodology. The date at which Experian has taken data for the current RPS is given in the body of this guide. Another source may have used earlier or later data. o The second relates to data processing. As explained in the body of this guide, it is sometimes necessary at the regional level and (particularly) at the local level to process or construct data. Our approach to doing this is explained in the body of this guide. We apply consistent methodologies to process the data. Other sources may carry this out in different ways. When compared against the raw source, our data may differ because, for example: . It has been constrained to other sources. . It has been converted into CVM data or quarterly data. . It has been made consistent with other data or a later vintage of data. o The third relates to raw survey data. Raw survey data is often volatile and does not take into account information outside the survey. Official statistics and our data are constructed from the raw survey data to take into account volatility, sampling issues and all available data sources.  Why does Experian’s job history differ from the ABI or BRES? o The ABI/BRES are surveys taken from a particular year; they are not updated. o ABI/BRES is a source for ONS’ workforce jobs but it is not the only source. o Experian’s workforce job history is designed to be consistent with the latest available ONS workforce jobs estimates (which may represent additional data or improved methodology.) o Raw survey is often incomplete and suffers from sampling variability, which does not represent true volatility in the underlying population data. This must be removed to ensure high quality data.  How often are data updated? o We always use the latest available data at the cut-off date for history. o New GVA data is available from the ONS . At the UK Level, three times a quarter. . At the Regional and Local level, annually (normally in December.) o New Expenditure data is available from the ONS at the UK level twice a quarter. o New LFS Employment data is available from the ONS once a quarter. o New Workforce Jobs data is available from the ONS once a quarter. o New BRES is published once a year (normally in December.) o New Income data is available from the ONS . At the UK level, once a quarter. . At the Regional and Local level, once a year (normally in April.) o Population projections are published once every two years. o New mid-year population estimates are published annually. o New LCFS is published annually.  How do revisions to historical data affect your history and forecasts? o As explained above, we always take into account the latest historical data. o The monthly UK macro forecast is updated after each ONS revision of GDP for a quarter. o The RPS is based on a particular UK macro forecast and includes the latest available regional and local data. o Forecasts are updated to be consistent with the latest historical data. While this will typically only affect the short-to-medium term, there are times when the long-run is necessarily affected. This will usually be when there has been a substantial revision to history.  How are past growth trends captured in the forecasts? o All our models are econometric models. o An econometric model is a model estimated on historical data.

o The coefficients (i.e. interactions) in the model embed historical relationships between variables and historical growth rates in a variable. o Where we believe that the forecast relationships may differ from history, we make appropriate adjustments to the forecast. This may be the case, for example, where an area has been substantially redeveloped in recent years.  How are industry/regional/local developments and policies reflected in forecasts? o If these developments and policies are reflected in model inputs (for example population) or in history then they will be automatically captured by the model. o In any other case, we are able to make appropriate adjustments to take these into account. o At the industry level, we taken into account announced developments in that industry which are large enough to affect the growth in the industry at the national, regional or local level (as the case may be). o At the regional and local, we taken into account announced developments or policies which are large enough to affect growth at the regional or local level. The local model, in particular, has the facility to take into account the impact of additional population or jobs in a particular area. o It is important to realise that many developments or policies may not be sufficiently large enough to affect growth rates or may be implicitly included in the forecast from a higher level of aggregation.  How does population relate to the employment forecasts? o This is discussed in detail in the methodology section above for the regions and the locals. o It is important to remember that employment is forecast on both a residence and workplace basis. o Residence based employment depends on local population (labour supply) growth but also on demand for work throughout the region and across the regional boundary. o Workplace based employment depends on labour supply throughout the region and across the regional boundary.  What is working age? o The definition of working age used based on the state pension age. o As the state pension age for men and women changes in line with announced policy, the working age population will change to take this into account. o The key changes to the state pension age that have been announced are: . A gradual equality in state pension age for men and women. . A gradual rise in state pension age for both men and women to 67 (and 68 after the forecast horizon.)  What is the participation rate / economic activity rate? o The participation rate or economic activity rate is the proportion of the population who are either employed or seeking employment (i.e. unemployed.) o The participation rate used in our models is based on the entire adult population (16+). This differs from earlier versions of our models which used only the working age population. o The participation rate is an endogenous variable in all our models. It is not a fixed assumption.  What assumptions have been made regarding commuting in the local model? o Commuting in the local model is based on estimates given by the ONS. o These are based on the Annual Population Survey. o Commuting assumptions are fixed over the forecast. o However, the outcome for commuting may differ from the assumption because (for example) there is insufficient demand or supply for labour to provide as many workers across a particular commuting relationship.  How is Full-Time Equivalent employment derived? o This is based on the total hours worked (please see the glossary.) o The relationship between FTEs and hours is fixed by definition. o In different industries, the hours worked per job will differ. o Historical data for this is taken from ASHE (please see the body of the guide.) o The forecast takes into account changing trends in hours per job. This will necessarily alter the relationship between Full-Time Equivalent employment and jobs.  How does the weighting of different factors change over the forecast period? o There is no fixed rule about the changes in this time.

o The coefficients of the econometric equations are fixed over time o However, at the local level population growth becomes more important as unemployment decreases.

Appendix E…About us

Our economic forecasting expertise

Experian's team of 18 economists is a leading provider of global, national, regional and local economic forecasts and analysis to the commercial and public sectors. Our foresight helps organisations predict the future of their markets, identify new business opportunities, quantify risk and make informed decisions.

Experian’s economics team is part of a 140-strong analytics division, which provides an understanding of consumers, markets and economies in the UK and around the world, past, present and future. As part of the Experian group, the analytics division has access to a wealth of research data and innovative software solutions. Its statisticians, econometricians, sociologists, geographers, market researchers and economists carry out extensive research into the underlying drivers of social, economic and market change.

For more information, visit www.experian.co.uk/economics

Experian

Experian is a global leader in providing information, analytical and marketing services to organisations and consumers to help manage the risk and reward of commercial and financial decisions.

Combining its unique information tools and deep understanding of individuals, markets and economies, Experian partners with organisations around the world to establish and strengthen customer relationships and provide their businesses with competitive advantage.

For consumers, Experian delivers critical information that enables them to make financial and purchasing decisions with greater control and confidence.

Clients include organisations from financial services, retail and catalogue, telecommunications, utilities, media, insurance, automotive, leisure, e-commerce, manufacturing, property and government sectors.

Experian Group Limited is listed on the London Stock Exchange (EXPN) and is a constituent of the FTSE 100 index. It has corporate headquarters in Dublin, Ireland, and operational headquarters in Costa Mesa, California and Nottingham, UK. Experian employs around 15,500 people in 36 countries worldwide, supporting clients in more than 65 countries. Annual sales are in excess of $3.8 billion (£1.9 billion/€2.8 billion).

For more information, visit the Group's website on www.experiangroup.com

The word 'Experian' is a registered trademark in the EU and other countries and is owned by Experian Ltd and/or its associated companies.

Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent : Joint Employment Land Review

Appendix 8 Definition of B Class Sectors

The method used for re-categorising the employment forecasts by sector into B-Class uses is summarised below.

Apportionment of B Class Sectors to Land Uses for Stoke-on-Trent - Experian

Sector Proportion of Jobs by Use Class B1c/B2 B1a/b office B8 warehousing industrial Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Non B-Class Extraction & Mining Non B-Class Food, Drink & Tobacco 0% 100% 0% Textiles & Clothing 0% 100% 0% Wood & Paper 0% 100% 0% Printing and Recorded Media 0% 100% 0% Fuel Refining 0% 100% 0% Chemicals 0% 100% 0% Pharmaceuticals 0% 100% 0% Non-Metallic Products 0% 100% 0% Metal Products 0% 100% 0% Computer & Electronic Products 0% 100% 0% Machinery & Equipment 0% 100% 0% Transport Equipment 0% 100% 0% Other Manufacturing 0% 100% 0% Utilities 21% Construction of Buildings Non B-Class Civil Engineering Non B-Class Specialised Construction Activities 0% 64% 0% Wholesale 0% 20% 69% Retail Non B-Class Land Transport, Storage & Post 0% 0% 87% Air & Water Transport Non B-Class Accommodation & Food Services Non B-Class Recreation Non B-Class Media Activities 100% 0% 0% Telecoms 100% 0% 0% Computing & Information Services 100% 0% 0% Finance 100% 0% 0% Insurance & Pensions 100% 0% 0% Real Estate 100% 0% 0% Professional Services 100% 0% 0% Administrative & Supportive Services 15% 0% 0% Other Private Services Non B-Class Public Administration & Defence 10% 0% 0% Education Non B-Class Health Non B-Class Residential Care & Social Work Non B-Class

Source: Experian / NLP analysis

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Apportionment of B Class Sectors to Land Uses for Newcastle-under-Lyme - Experian

Sector Proportion of Jobs by Use Class B1c/B2 B1a/b office B8 warehousing industrial Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Non B-Class Extraction & Mining Non B-Class Food, Drink & Tobacco 0% 100% 0% Textiles & Clothing 0% 100% 0% Wood & Paper 0% 100% 0% Printing and Recorded Media 0% 100% 0% Fuel Refining 0% 100% 0% Chemicals 0% 100% 0% Pharmaceuticals 0% 100% 0% Non-Metallic Products 0% 100% 0% Metal Products 0% 100% 0% Computer & Electronic Products 0% 100% 0% Machinery & Equipment 0% 100% 0% Transport Equipment 0% 100% 0% Other Manufacturing 0% 100% 0% Utilities 62% Construction of Buildings Non B-Class Civil Engineering Non B-Class Specialised Construction Activities 0% 70% 0% Wholesale 0% 26% 68% Retail Non B-Class Land Transport, Storage & Post 0% 0% 99% Air & Water Transport Non B-Class Accommodation & Food Services Non B-Class Recreation Non B-Class Media Activities 100% 0% 0% Telecoms 100% 0% 0% Computing & Information Services 100% 0% 0% Finance 100% 0% 0% Insurance & Pensions 100% 0% 0% Real Estate 100% 0% 0% Professional Services 100% 0% 0% Administrative & Supportive Services 8% 0% 0% Other Private Services Non B-Class Public Administration & Defence 10% 0% 0% Education Non B-Class Health Non B-Class Residential Care & Social Work Non B-Class

Source: Experian / NLP analysis

Apportionment of B Class Sectors to Land Uses for Stoke-on-Trent – Cambridge Econometrics

Sector Proportion of Jobs by Use Class B1c/B2 B1a/b office B8 warehousing industrial Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Non B-Class Mining & quarrying Non B-Class

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Sector Proportion of Jobs by Use Class B1c/B2 B1a/b office B8 warehousing industrial Food, Drink & Tobacco 0% 100% 0% Textiles etc 0% 100% 0% Wood & Paper 0% 100% 0% Printing and Recorded Media 0% 100% 0% Coke and Petroleum 0% 100% 0% Chemicals 0% 100% 0% Pharmaceuticals 0% 100% 0% Non-Metallic Mineral Products 0% 100% 0% Metals and Metal Products 0% 100% 0% Electronics 0% 100% 0% Electrical Equipment 0% 100% 0% Machinery Motor Vehicles 0% 100% 0% Other Transport Equipment Other Manufacturing and Repair 0% 100% 0% Electricity and Gas Non B-Class Water sewerage and waste 63% Construction 42% Motor Vehicle Trade 65% Wholesale trade 100% Retail Non B-Class Land Transport 72% Water Transport Air Transport Warehousing and Postal 93% Accommodation Non B-Class Food Services Arts Non B-Class Recreational Services Media Activities 100% 0% 0% IT services 100% 0% 0% Finance 100% 0% 0% Real Estate 100% 0% 0% Legal and Accounting 100% Head office and management consultancies 100% Architecture and engineering services 100% Other Professional Services 100% Business Supportive Services 15% 0% 0% Other Services Non B-Class Public Administration & Defence 10% 0% 0% Education Non B-Class Health Non B-Class Residential Care & Social Work Non B-Class

Source: Cambridge Econometrics / NLP analysis

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Apportionment of B Class Sectors to Land Uses for Newcastle-under-Lyme – Cambridge Econometrics

Sector Proportion of Jobs by Use Class B1c/B2 B1a/b office B8 warehousing industrial Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Non B-Class Mining & quarrying Non B-Class Food, Drink & Tobacco 0% 100% 0% Textiles etc 0% 100% 0% Wood & Paper 0% 100% 0% Printing and Recorded Media 0% 100% 0% Coke and Petroleum 0% 100% 0% Chemicals 0% 100% 0% Pharmaceuticals 0% 100% 0% Non-Metallic Mineral Products 0% 100% 0% Metals and Metal Products 0% 100% 0% Electronics 0% 100% 0% Electrical Equipment 0% 100% 0% Machinery 100% Motor Vehicles 0% 100% 0% Other Transport Equipment 100% Other Manufacturing and Repair 0% 100% 0% Electricity and Gas Non B-Class Water sewerage and waste 62% Construction 49% Motor Vehicle Trade 80% Wholesale trade 100% Retail Non B-Class Land Transport 96% Water Transport Air Transport Warehousing and Postal 100% Accommodation Non B-Class Food Services Non B-Class Arts Non B-Class Recreational Services Non B-Class Media Activities 100% 0% 0% IT services 100% 0% 0% Finance 100% 0% 0% Real Estate 100% 0% 0% Legal and Accounting 100% Head office and management consultancies 100% Architecture and engineering services 100% Other Professional Services 100% Business Supportive Services 8% 0% 0% Other Services Non B-Class Public Administration & Defence 10% 0% 0% Education Non B-Class Health Non B-Class Residential Care & Social Work Non B-Class Source: Cambridge Econometrics / NLP analysis

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Apportionment of B Class Sectors to Land Uses for Stoke-on-Trent – Oxford Economics

Sector Proportion of Jobs by Use Class B1c/B2 B1a/b office B8 warehousing industrial Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Non B-Class Extraction & Mining Non B-Class Manufacturing 0% 100% 0% Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Non B-Class Water supply; sewerage, waste management and 63% remediation activities Construction 42% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles 0% 8% 29% and motorcycles Transportation and Storage 0% 0% 87% Accommodation & Food Services Activities Non B-Class Information and Communication 100% 0% 0% Finance & Insurance activities 100% 0% 0% Real Estate activities 100% 0% 0% Professional, Scientific and technical Activities 100% 0% 0% Administrative & Supportive Service Activities 15% 0% 0% Public Administration & Defence 10% 0% 0% Education Non B-Class Human Health and Social Work Activities Non B-Class Arts, entertainment and recreation Non B-Class Other service activities Non B-Class Source: Oxford Economics / NLP analysis

Apportionment of B Class Sectors to Land Uses for Newcastle-under-Lyme – Oxford Economics

Sector Proportion of Jobs by Use Class B1c/B2 B1a/b office B8 warehousing industrial Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Non B-Class Extraction & Mining Non B-Class Manufacturing 0% 100% 0% Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Non B-Class Water supply; sewerage, waste management and 63% remediation activities Construction 49% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles 0% 10% 27% and motorcycles Transportation and Storage 0% 0% 99% Accommodation & Food Services Activities Non B-Class Information and Communication 100% 0% 0% Finance & Insurance activities 100% 0% 0% Real Estate activities 100% 0% 0% Professional, Scientific and technical Activities 100% 0% 0% Administrative & Supportive Service Activities 8% 0% 0% Public Administration & Defence 10% 0% 0% Education Non B-Class Human Health and Social Work Activities Non B-Class Arts, entertainment and recreation Non B-Class Other service activities Non B-Class Source: Oxford Economics / NLP analysis

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Appendix 9 Summary Analysis of JELR Compliance with NPPF/PPG Requirements

Requirement of NPPF/PPG JELR Compliance

Up-to-date Evidence Base

Comprehensive assessment Updated information has been produced, as part of this 2015 ELR, drawing all of exercises should be updated the necessary evidence together into a single, coherent document. regularly (not more frequently than every five years)

Assessment of need should be based Updated demand analysis has been produced, underpinned by up-to-date on a range of data which is current econometric forecasts from Experian, Oxford Economics and Cambridge and robust Econometrics.

Functional Economic Market Areas

Needs should be assessed in relation The FEMA within which Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme are situated to the relevant FEA is analysed at length in Section 3.0. As required by the Practice Guidance, this work has had regard to, inter alia: travel-to-work data; commercial market intelligence; and LEP boundaries.

An understanding of the demand-supply balance and economic aspirations elsewhere in the FEMA has then be used to inform a revised demand forecasting exercise to identify clear boundaries for the FEMA.

Further analysis is presented to articulate the economic and employment land strategies of adjacent authorities in Section 4.0.

Duty to Co-Operate

Needs should be assessed working Substantial commentary provided regarding Duty to Co-operate in Section 4.0 with other LPAs in the relevant FEMA following discussions with Officers from adjoining authorities and during the stakeholder workshop. This enable an understanding of their emerging economic and employment land strategies; and articulate Stoke-on-Trent’s and Newcastle-under-Lyme’s own aspirations

Economic Context

Work should be informed by an Section 3.0 of the ELR provides a detailed analysis of local economic conditions analysis of the local economic and historic trends. This is benchmarked against national and regional averages. context

Work should include an analysis of The forecasting work in Section 8.0 provides a breakdown of growth by broad sectoral growth trends sector. Section 3.0 provides a detailed analysis of Locational Quotients and sectoral growth trends for both local authorities.

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Requirement of NPPF/PPG JELR Compliance

This has been used to identify those sectors with growth potential where this part of North Staffordshire may have, or be able to develop, a competitive advantage.

This is aligned with LEP growth targets and the Policy ON Scenario following discussions with Economic Development Officers at both Councils.

Market Signals

Evidence should take account of Market analysis provided by Harris Lamb and discussions with a number of local market signals, including: statistical agents operating in North Staffordshire and other Business agencies including analysis; discussions with developers the LEP, many of whom attended the Workshop. This includes agency input and and property agents; business statistical analysis (including a discussion of rents and values in competitor surveys; engagement with business locations and deals that have been concluded). and economic forums The Commercial Analysis provided in Section 6.0 clearly demonstrates how the market evidence has helped to shape the proposed position on employment land.

Detailed statistical analysis of key indicators such as the stock and distribution of floorspace, vacancy rates etc. is provided in Section 4.0. This looks at current levels and changes over time, with the two local authority areas benchmarked against regional and national averages.

A Business Survey was carried out and summarised in Section 6.0, as well as an analysis of the Councils’ Inquiries databases.

Where there are distinct property The ELR study establishes a broad typology of sites within Stoke-on-Trent and market areas within an authority, a Newcastle-under-Lyme, in the pro formas and attendant spreadsheets. simple typology of employment land Commentary is provided within the accompanying schedule of sites regarding the by market segment and sub-area role and function of individual sites. should be developed and analysed

Demand Forecasting

Demand forecasting work should be Section 8.0 provides a detailed analysis of demand forecasting techniques, using proportionate, but should consider: a wide range of scenarios drawing upon labour demand and labour supply techniques, as well as historic take-up rates. This has been supplemented by  Employment projections (labour qualitative analysis from the stakeholder engagement and Business Surveys to demand) derive a robust employment land OAN.  Demographic change (labour supply)  Past take-up or future property market requirements  Consultation with relevant organisations, studies of business trends and monitoring of relevant statistics

In translating employment forecasts The demand forecasting work in Section 8.0 sets out the assumed relationships into land requirements, four key between broad industrial sectors and use classes/property types. It provides a

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Requirement of NPPF/PPG JELR Compliance relationships must be quantified: transparent overview of the assumptions and methodology applied to translate job change to land needs providing a clear logic chain setting out each step in the  SIC sectors to use classes calculations, so that the relationship between jobs and employment land can be  SIC classes to type of property readily understood.  Employment numbers to quantum of floorspace (employment density)  Floorspace to site area (plot ratio)

Understanding the Demand-Supply Balance

Provide a breakdown of demand and Section 7.0 appraises sites against a range of key criteria, and identifies a supply in terms of quality and recommended future portfolio, clearly specifying the relative quality of these sites. location, in order to identify any gaps Section 9.0 brings together evidence regarding demand and supply in order to in the current land supply outline the current quantitative balance being planned for through the Core Spatial Strategy. This clearly identifies any de-allocations or new allocations and their impact upon the demand-supply balance.

The study draws upon local knowledge to identify existing and emerging gaps in the supply.

The above should be informed by NLP has relied upon evidence provided by the two Councils on past losses and analysing the recent pattern of completions, supplemented by information made available by St Modwens employment land supply and losses regarding take up for 2011 and 2012.

This has informed one of the demand forecasting scenarios.

All assumptions and methodological steps are clearly articulated in Section 8.0 to provide a chain of logic that is fully transparent and easy to follow.

Identify areas of oversupply (by Analysis of oversupply presented within the context of the updated demand location and/or type) and instances of projections in Section 9.0. market failure (e.g. physical, financial This draws together the following datasets in order to identify any instances of or ownership constraints) over (or under) supply:

 Forecast demand (by use class/sector and location);  Supply (by use class/site typology and location); and Market signals.

Demonstrate an understanding of the Sections 3.0 and 8.0 identify those sectors with growth potential where Stoke-on- locational and premises requirements Trent and Newcastle-under-Lyme may have, or be able to develop, a competitive of particular types of businesses advantage. The Commercial Market Analysis in Section 6.0 provides a narrative detailing the typical land and premises requirements of businesses in these sectors (and any others of particular relevance to North Staffordshire’s economic future).

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Requirement of NPPF/PPG JELR Compliance

Encourage and plan for emerging The ELR supports the case to plan for future potential growth in large scale sectors where possible. Must be distribution and logistics. This is informed by an analysis of key drivers of informed by an analysis of sectoral demand, historic take-up rates and emerging supply constraints elsewhere in growth trends North Staffordshire.

This draws upon the above analysis regarding the land and premises requirements of key sectors to articulate how the future portfolio of land being planned for through the Core Spatial Strategy meets their qualitative (and quantitative) requirements.

Identify occurrences where sites Section 6.0 identifies several instances where sites have been developed for have been developed for specialist specialist economic uses, such as Keele Science Park economic uses

Consultation

A range of organisations should be Section 5.0 outlines how NLP has engaged with key economic stakeholders and consulted, including: LEPs; business representative organisations. This was pursued on a one-to-one basis businesses; and business and via a workshop. This included undertaking a Business Survey. Workshop representative organisations sessions were also used to test/validate the selection of a preferred scenario emerging through the demand forecasting exercise.

Work should draw on discussions NLP devised and circulated a business survey and engaged with key business with developers and property agents, and economic forums. This was used to consider issues related to employment business surveys and engagement land, as well as identify challenges and opportunities in relation to the economic with business and economic forums future of STCC and NLBC.

Source: The Framework / Practice Guidance and NLP analysis

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Appendix 10 Assessed Employment Sites

Assessed Employment Sites in Stoke-on-Trent

Source: NLP analysis

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NLP Site Site Description NLP Site Site Description Ref. Ref. ST1 Former Johnson Matthey, Whittle Rd, Meir ST38 Chatterley Valley (Area 2)

ST2 Meir Depot, Uttoxeter Road, Meir - CFS 21 ST39 Land off Scotia Road

ST3 Wedgwood Estate, Barlaston ST40 Land between Huntilee Road and Scotia Rd, Tunstall ST4 Staffordshire House/Fenton 25 ST41 Broad Street Area

ST5 Cliffe Vale/Caradon Twyfords Excelsior Wks/Former ST42 Central Business District Slimma ST6 Newstead Trading Estate ST43 Former Clarence Primary School, Sampson St

ST7 Bridgewater Pottery and surrounding land, Lichfield ST44 Land off New Century St, Hanley - CFS 23 St ST8 West of Ivy House Rd ST45 Land at Century Street/Waterloo Rd, Hanley

ST9 Gas Holder site, Etruscan St ST46 Sainsbury’s, Etruria Rd

ST10 Hewitts, Victoria Rd, Fenton ST47 140 Broad Street Hanley

ST11 Sideway/Radial Park - CFS14 ST48 Fuchs Lubricants, New Century Street, Hanley

ST12 Trentham Lakes North ST49 Unit 1 & 2, Hot Lane Industrial Estate

ST13 Building 94F, Stone Road, Trent Vale ST50 Royal Doulton, Burslem

ST14 City General Hospital/University Hospital of North ST51 Holdcroft Honda, Sneyd Street, Cobridge Staffs - CFS 27 ST15 Wilson Rd, Hanford - CFS 13 ST52 Former Focus DIY, Milburn Road, Cobridge

ST16 Trentham Lakes South, incl. plot at Trentham Lakes ST53 Garth Street, Hanley North ST17 South Car Park, Stanley Matthews Way, Trentham ST54 East and West Precincts, Hanley Lakes ST18 Fenton Quarry ST55 Trinity St/Marsh St North, Hanley

ST19 Site off Whieldon Road ST56 Chatterley Whitfield

ST20 Land at Whielden Rd - CFS 5 ST57 Former Sub-Station, Bute Street, Fenton

ST21 Riverside Park off Campbell Road ST58 Ex Phoenix Timber, Foley Rd, Longton

ST22 The Campbell Centre ST59 Diamond Gimson Works, King St, Fenton

ST23 Metaltek/Meighs Castings, Campbell Rd - CFS 10 ST60 Fenpark Industrial Estate

ST24 Cockshot Sidings, Shelton New Rd, Shelton ST61 Berryhill Pottery

ST25 College (Snow Hill Building) ST62 Site at Clarence Road/ Don Bur Service

ST26 Chatterley Valley (Area 6): Tunstall Sewage Works ST63 Mossfield Road - New 8

ST27 GSH House, Forge Lane, Etruria ST64 Shires Bathrooms, Uttoxeter Rd

ST28 Butters Festival Way ST65 Calvery Street and Lower Spring Rd

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ST29 Severn Trent Water Depot, Federation Rd, Burslem ST66 Land at Mossfield Road/ Mossfield Industrial Estate ST30 Westport Road/Hall Street/Pack Horse Lane, Burslem ST67 Sandford Hill

ST31 North of Cartlich Street ST68 Park Hall Business Village

ST32 Former Brownhills Tileries, Harewood Street, Tunstall ST69 Land at Junction of Park Hall Rd/Anchor Rd, Adderly Green - CFS 1 ST33 Land of High St, Tunstall - CFS 9 ST70 Business Unit 1 (Recticel), Enterprise Way, Meir Park ST34 Chatterley Valley (Area 1) ST71 Etruria Valley Phase 3a and 3b, Forge Lane Etruria ST35 Valley Works, Ravensdale, Tunstall ST72 Etruria Valley Phase 2a, Forge Lane

ST36 Chatterley Valley (Area 3) ST73 Wades, Trade Park 4, Hanley Economic and Festival Court ST37 Former Ravensdale Sportsfield, Land off Chemical ST74 Land at Clough Street – Inc. CFS 12 Lane, Tunstall - CFS 4

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Assessed Employment Sites in Newcastle-under-Lyme

Source: NLP analysis

Note: The above Figures indicate the location of all sites assessed by this ELR. The numbers identified on the plans correspond to the site reference numbers allocated to each site, with sites in Stoke-on-Trent prefixed with ’ST’ and sites in Newcastle-under-Lyme prefixed with ‘NL’.

NLP Site Site Description NLP Site Site Description Ref. Ref. NL1 Barracks Road, Newcastle NL23 Land off Alsager Road and A500

NL2 Brunswick St/George Street Newcastle NL24 Land to S&E of New Development Site, Keele

NL3 Silverdale Business Park, Cemetery Road, NL25 Land off Liverpool Road, Kidsgrove Silverdale NL4 Chatterley Valley (east of mainline), Chatterley NL26 Liverpool Road Newcastle

NL5 Chatterley Valley (west of mainline), Chatterley NL27 Ryecroft Site, Newcastle

NL6 Speedway Stadium, Chesterton NL28 Liverpool Road/Ashfields New Road

NL7 Eardley End Area A NL29 Lower St, Newcastle

NL8 Eardley End Area C NL30 Lowlands Road, Ravensdale

NL9 Eardley End Area D NL31 Lymedale Park, Holditch, Chesterton

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NL10 Former Wolstanton Colliery Stock Yard, West Ave, NL32 Nelson Place (Jubilee Baths) - Town Centre, Wolstanton School Street NL11 Great Oak NL33 Parkhouse Road West, Chesterton

NL12 Heathcote St, Chesterton NL34 Pepper St, Keele

NL13 High Carr Colliery NL35 Red Street

NL14 High Carr, Chesterton NL36 Rowhurst Close, Chesterton

NL15 Jamage South NL37 West Avenue, Kidsgrove

NL16 Land adjoining A500 & M6 (J16) NL38 Land off Linley Road, Kidsgrove

NL17 Land at Brampton Road NL39 Station Rd, Kidsgrove

NL18 Hilltop Business Centre, Talke NL40 Keele Science Park Phase 3, University of Keele NL19 Land at London Road Chesterton NL41 Water Street/George Street, Newcastle

NL20 Land at Oaktree Lane, Talke NL42 Land and Buildings at West Avenue, Kidsgrove

NL21 Land between Lower Milehouse Lane & Brymbo NL43 Chemical Lane Site Road NL22 Land north of Audley

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