M25 South West Quadrant Strategic Study Evidence Report M25 South West Quadrant Strategic Study: Evidence Report Contents 0. Executive Summary ................................................................................................9 0.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................9 0.2 Policy context ...........................................................................................................9 0.3 Previous studies ........................................................................................................9 0.4 Economic conditions ..............................................................................................10 0.5 Existing road network ............................................................................................. 11 0.6 Existing public transport network ............................................................................ 13 0.7 Environmental considerations ................................................................................. 14 1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................15 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 15 1.2 Problem identification .............................................................................................. 15 1.3 Study objectives ..................................................................................................... 16 1.4 Study tasks ............................................................................................................. 17 1.5 Defining the study area ........................................................................................... 17 1.6 The M25 ................................................................................................................. 19 1.7 Population and workforce ....................................................................................... 19 1.8 Local Enterprise Partnerships .................................................................................20 1.9 Stakeholders ...........................................................................................................21 1.10 Report structure .....................................................................................................21 2 Background and Context .....................................................................................22 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................22 2.2 Economic policy .....................................................................................................22 2.3 Transport policy ......................................................................................................22 2.4 Planning policy ........................................................................................................25 2.5 Environmental policy ...............................................................................................26 2.6 Previous studies ......................................................................................................29 2.7 Key findings – Policy context ...................................................................................34 1 M25 South West Quadrant Strategic Study: Evidence Report 2.8 Key findings – Previous studies ...............................................................................35 3 Existing Economic Conditions .............................................................................36 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................36 3.2 Economic performance and activity ........................................................................36 3.3 Economic indicators by Local Enterprise Partnership ..............................................38 3.4 Spatial analysis of two key employment sectors ...................................................... 41 3.5 Travel and economic activity ...................................................................................49 3.6 Economic role of airports ........................................................................................54 3.7 Key findings – Economic conditions in the M25SWQ ..............................................57 4 Existing Road Conditions ....................................................................................59 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................59 4.2 Key traffic movements ............................................................................................60 4.3 Trip lengths .............................................................................................................61 4.4 Trip origins and destinations ....................................................................................61 4.5 Route performance .................................................................................................64 4.6 Freight ....................................................................................................................75 4.7 Road safety ............................................................................................................76 4.8 Resilience ...............................................................................................................77 4.9 Routes parallel to the M25 ......................................................................................78 4.10 Key findings – Road conditions ...............................................................................82 5 Existing Public Transport Conditions ..................................................................84 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................84 5.2 Rail network ............................................................................................................84 5.3 Existing rail usage ...................................................................................................88 5.4 Comparison with other modes ................................................................................93 5.5 Bus and coach .......................................................................................................94 5.6 Key findings – Public transport ................................................................................97 6 Existing Environmental Conditions .....................................................................98 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................98 2 M25 South West Quadrant Strategic Study: Evidence Report 6.2 Immediate M25 corridor ..........................................................................................98 6.3 Summary of environmental designations in the M25SWQ corridor ........................100 6.4 Environmental designations in the wider study area .............................................. 102 6.5 Key findings – Environmental conditions ...............................................................105 7 Future Conditions ...............................................................................................106 7.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................106 7.2 Third party growth forecasts .................................................................................106 7.3 Committed development ...................................................................................... 114 7.4 Airport capacity .....................................................................................................117 7.5 Committed transport investment ........................................................................... 118 7.6 Key findings – Future conditions ............................................................................ 121 8 Study Objectives ................................................................................................ 122 9 References .......................................................................................................... 123 List of tables Table 3-1: Selected economic indicators by LEP ..................................................................38 Table 3-2: Top ten employment clusters within 5 miles of M25SWQ .....................................49 Table 4-1: Journeys on selected M25SWQ sections by length ..............................................61 Table 4-2: Summary of traffic volumes ..................................................................................65 Table 4-3: Accident rates on M25SWQ (2012-2014) Personal Injury Accidents/million vehiclekilometres (PIA/mvkm) .................................................................................76 Table 4-4: Number of accidents at junctions on the M25SWQ ..............................................76 Table 6-1: Summary and importance of environmental designations in the M25 corridor .... 101 Table 7-1: Hertfordshire’s growth areas - headline statistics ................................................108 Table 7-2: 2015 Road Traffic Forecasts ..............................................................................