udall center for studies in public policy environmental policy working papers no. 3 Global Warming and Antarctica Causes, Effects, and Policies Bernard P. Herber Global Warming and Antarctica Causes, Effects, and Policies Bernard P. Herber, Ph.D. † Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy The University of Arizona Environmental Policy Working Papers No. 3 March 2012 †Professor Emeritus, Depart- ment of Economics, University of Arizona, and Udall Center Fellow (1991-92) Support for Udall Center Publications is provided by the Morris K. Udall and Stewart L. Udall Foundation. www.udall.gov About the Author Bernard P. Herber is professor emeritus of economics at the University of Arizona. His research focus has been on public economics and international public finance. He was a Udall Center Fellow in 1991-1992. He is author of Protecting the Antarctic Commons: Problems of Economic Efficiency(Udall Center Publications, 2007; see, http://udallcenter.arizona.edu/ucpubs/herber_2007.pdf). Global Warming and Antarctica: Causes, Effects, and Policies By Bernard P. Herber Edited by Robert Merideth Published by the Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy at the University of Arizona Copyright © 2012 by the Arizona Board of Regents All rights reserved Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy The University of Arizona 803 E. First St. Tucson, AZ 85719 (520) 626-4393 http://udallcenter.arizona.edu/ucpubs Cover photo by Calee Allen, courtesy National Science Foundation Antarctic Program (see http://photolibrary.usap.gov). Cover artwork by Chrysantha Gakopoulos. Support for Udall Center Publications is provided by the Morris K. Udall and Stewart L. Udall Foundation. Table of Contents I. Global Warming and the Antarctic Commons 1 The unique role of Antarctica in the global warming scenario Antarctica as part of the global commons Negative externality effects on the Antarctic commons II. Global Warming Policy under International Treaty Constraints 7 “Global” commons resources, “sub-global” government sovereignty III. Searching for an Efficient Global Warming Policy 10 Global and sub-global levels of policy Global warming policy under the U.N. Climate Change Convention Global warming policy under the Antarctic Treaty System Enhancing the strategic role of Antarctic science The ultimate policy challenges: Leadership and distributional issues References 23 iii The Antarctic Region Source: http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/antarctica_map.htm, accessed February 22, 2012. iv G L O B A L W A R M I N G A N D A N T A R C T I C A | H E R B E R I Global Warming and the Antarctic Commons The unique role of Antarctica in the global warming scenario The Industrial Revolution, which began during the mid-1800s, spawned an ancillary phenomenon consisting of an enormous growth in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the global atmosphere.1 During the latter part of the twentieth century and continuing into the present century, the global scientific community—as coordinated by the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—has reached a definitive majority opinion that such an increase in GHGs causes global warming accompanied by significant changes in global climate patterns across various regions of the planet.2 In turn, computer simulations indicate that such disparate climate changes will exert devastating long-run economic and human welfare effects—some of which may already have begun. The perceived harmful effects of global warming, with widespread regional differences in the specific locations and features of such effects, include more intense heat waves, rising sea levels, increased drought, increased flooding, increased wildfires, disrupted agricultural production, and devastating effects on biological diversity. Among the “excessive” GHGs being introduced into the atmosphere, the most significant culprit is carbon dioxide (CO2), a gas released in the burning of the fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—for the production 1 The major greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxides, and chlorofluorocarbon dioxides. 2 The present paper is based upon the acceptance of this majority scientific opinion. However, acknowledgement is made of an outspoken minority opinion challenging the majority position. 1 G L O B A L W A R M I N G A N D A N T A R C T I C A | H E R B E R of energy. Coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel, natural gas is the cleanest, and oil is in-between, as measured by the amount of CO2 released per unit of 3 energy produced. The very presence of CO2 in the global atmosphere, of course, is not a problem when the atmosphere is in a balanced or equilibrium natural state. However, the enormous increase in atmospheric CO2, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, has created a significant disequilibrium in the natural state of CO2 in the atmosphere that, in turn, is largely responsible for the present global warming and related regional climate change threats. Global CO2 emissions in 2009 amounted to just over 30,000 million tons of CO2 (see Table 1). Yet, CO2 emissions emanating from the continent of Antarctica amounted to less than one percent of aggregate global CO2 emissions—a sharp contrast to the magnitude of CO2 emissions that originated on the other six continents of the planet.4 Despite the extremely small input of CO2 from Antarctica, the negative externality effects of global warming caused by the excess CO2 emissions exert disproportionately larger repercussions on the natural resources and environment of Antarctica than on any of the other continents.5 The explanation for this unique and, as it turns out, strategic role of Antarctica in the global warming and climate change scenario is the fact that, unlike the other continents, the environment and natural resources of Antarctica are an integral natural component of the global commons, inclusive of the global atmosphere and oceans. 3 The carbon dioxide (CO2) content of coal per unit of energy produced (one million British Thermal Units) is .030 tons of CO2; oil is .024 tons of CO2; and natural gas .016 tons of CO2. 4 Among individual nations, the largest CO2 emitter in 2009 was China, with 7,706.8 million tons of CO2 emissions (25.5 percent of the world total), followed by the United States, with 5,424.5 million tons of CO2 emissions (17.9 percent of the world total). In turn, these two nations were followed by India, with 5.3 percent; Russia, with 5.2 percent; and Japan, with 3.7 percent of global CO2 emissions. 5 Negative externalities are “economic costs” that escape market pricing and, as a result, tend to be oversupplied and harmful to economic welfare. 2 G L O B A L W A R M I N G A N D A N T A R C T I C A | H E R B E R Table 1. World carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by region (2009) Carbon dioxide Percentage Region emissions of total (million metric tons) Africa 1,118.9 3.7 Antarctica ** 0.3 ** < 0.1 Asia & Oceania 13,238.3 43.7 Eurasia 2,338.3 7.7 Europe 4,307.3 14.1 Middle East 1,687.9 5.6 North America 6,410.6 21.2 South & Central America 1,211.9 4.0 World (Total) 30,313.2 100.0 ** Antarctica is included under South & Central America. Source: Energy Information Administration (2011). Thus, due to the intrinsic “global commons interface” between Antarctica and the global atmosphere and oceans, any damage to the natural resources and environment of Antarctica, caused by global warming, assimilates back, in return, to the other six continents by means of this commons linkage with the global atmosphere and oceans. In other words, as a result of its unique and important global commons characteristics, Antarctica assumes the role of a major player in the global warming game via the transmission of such negative externalities of global warming throughout the entire global community. Antarctica as part of the global commons Antarctica, a continent approximately twice the size of the continent of Australia, is 98 percent ice covered and contains more than 90 percent of the world’s ice and 70 percent of its freshwater (see map on page iv). The role of Antarctica, as part of the global commons, is demonstrated in a number of ways (Herber 2007, 26–29). The interaction of global natural processes reveals the critical importance of Antarctica and the adjacent 3 G L O B A L W A R M I N G A N D A N T A R C T I C A | H E R B E R Southern Ocean in determining planetary atmospheric and oceanic conditions that affect global climate. A leading British scientist observes that scientific investigation in Antarctica demonstrates “clearly and without ambiguity the integral role of Antarctica in the natural systems of planet Earth” and, further, notes that Antarctica acts as a major heat sink (i.e., by “soaking up” heat from the atmosphere) in driving the global climatic regime (Drewry 1988, 5–10). The Antarctic ice sheet exerts a major influence on global ocean levels. Moreover, the circumpolar current of the adjacent Southern Ocean, which is the largest ocean current in the world, drives the circulation of global oceans. The oceans, in turn, both influence the atmosphere and interact with it as the integral driving forces behind global weather and climate. In reference to the unique natural importance of Antarctica, as described above, a recent United Nations study describes the “critical role” played by Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the global environmental system, which involves “major processes of interaction between the atmosphere, oceans, ice, and biota [that] affect the entire global system through feedbacks, biogeochemical cycles, circulation patterns, transport of energy and pollutants, and changes in ice mass balance” (United Nations 2005, 10).