An Approach to Resilient Strategic Planning in the Face of Climate Change: A Case Study of Oman By Amna Mohammed Al Ruheili A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning in the Graduate Division of the University of California, Berkeley Committee in charge: Professor John D. Radke, Chair Professor G. Mathias Kondolf Professor Nelson H. Graburn Summer 2017 Copyright © Amna Mohammed Al Ruheili, 2017 All rights reserved 1 Abstract An Approach to Resilient and Intelligent Developmental Planning in the Face of Climate Change: A Case Study of Oman by Amna Mohammed Al Ruheili John D. Radke, Chair This research makes a significant contribution to strategic planning by introducing an approach that integrates science into the planning practices and policy-making of Oman to enable more informed and resilient development. Oman, like many of its neighbors in the Arabian Sea region, is quite vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change including: increased temperatures, erratic precipitation, desertification of much of its land mass, coastal flooding brought on by sea level rise (SLR), and increasing frequency of hazardous storms events. Throughout history, Oman has been subjected to various storms and cyclonic events that have resulted in both flash wadi flooding and high-tidal storm surge. Records show that major storms and cyclonic events have not only caused catastrophic damage to infrastructure and loss of agricultural lands and livestock, they have often resulted in loss of human life. These events have been frequent and climate change projections indicate that they are on the increase. Northern Oman has documented evidence of major storms and cyclonic events as far back as 1890, and increasing in periodicity today (ie. 1971, 1977, 1987, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2010, 2015, 2016, and 2017). Dhofar, located in southern Oman and the geographic study region for this research, has experienced major storms and cyclonic events on a regular basis (ie. 1948, 1959, 1963, 1966, 1983, 1996, 2002, 2004, 2011, and 2015). In order to mitigate and reduce the damage caused by these events, Oman, at an early stage of economic and industrial development, must modify its approach to strategic planning and policy-making. In fact the motivation behind this research is to promote resilient planning within the strategic-development planning process already taking place in Oman by providing a better understanding of how integrating science into the process can result in a better vision for the future, and more resilient infrastructure and development in general. This dissertation produces the first visualization of the inundation caused by the 2002 storm at Dhofar. It integrates a high-resolution earth surface model with a dynamic three-dimensional flood model based on the 2002 historic Dhofar extreme storm event that resulted in unprecedented damage. This novel modeling method allows researchers to analyze the realistic flow of water across the landscape during an extreme storm event. In addition, increments of sea level rise are modeled to predict future inundation levels based on predicted climate change. New GIS based technologies support the modeling and quantifying of impacts on infrastructure at a very high resolution at not only local scales but across vast regions. 2 This research demonstrates the application of a process that can help Oman move toward sustainable development and develop the creation of a resilient infrastructure to support the local population, in addition to the tourist industry that is quickly becoming a vital economic driver. It offers a glimpse into a future in which this knowledge and approach could be informative for the development of Oman and other Gulf countries. This is achieved by: 1) providing an overview of the principles of sustainable development and the implementation of those principles within the Omani context, 2) modeling the 2002 storm-surge event in association with various SLR scenarios along the coast of Dhofar, 3) quantifying coastal tourism projects that show vulnerabilities for the 2002 storm-surge event with different SLR projections, and 4) modeling the impacts of flash wadi flooding in 2002 and investigating the effects of this flooding on urbanization and infrastructure. Producing accurate measurements regarding the depth and extent of sea level rise and wadi flooding inundation in areas where infrastructure and urban areas are threatened is critical to sound decision-making. Analyzing the impacts of flooding on current infrastructure, economic projects, and urban areas are first steps in implementing resilient and intelligent planning in Oman. i DEDICATION This work is dedicated to my beloved daughter, Layan, and to my husband, Ahmed. Dear daughter Layan, thank you for your patience and for accompanying me during this journey. Thank you for tolerating the long hours of my being away from you. As much as I regret being apart from you and missing your wonderful growth, I hope I will be your role model in future. We started this journey together, and now I am finishing and there you are, cheering me on. There are no words in the world that can express my gratitude and thankfulness for you, but I promise I will be there for you when you are doing your Ph.D. Dear husband Ahmed, I owe you my loving thanks. Thank you for keeping, supporting, encouraging, and advising me throughout all these years. Ahmed, you are my hero. Thank you for your patience and for tolerating being apart from me and from Layan. I would never have been able to do it without your love and help. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Dedication ........................................................................................................................................ i List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. vi Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem Statement .............................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Research Contributions ....................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Research Outline ................................................................................................................. 5 CHAPTER 2 ................................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Resilient Infrastructure and Its Importance to Sustainable Development .......................... 9 2.2.1 Sustainable Development Interpretations and Applications ................................... 9 2.2.2 Social and Economic Interpretations in Sustainable Development ...................... 10 2.2.3 Significance of Resilient Infrastructure to Sustainable Development .................. 11 2.3 Oman’s Application to Sustainable Development ............................................................ 13 2.3.1 Sustainable Development in Oman’s Environmental Context ............................. 14 2.3.2 Sustainable Development in Oman’s Social Context ........................................... 14 2.3.3 Sustainable Development in the Context of Oman’s Economy............................ 15 2.4 The Piece of SD That Is Lacking in Oman: Resilient Infrastructure ................................ 16 2.4.1 The Urgent Need for Resilience in Oman............................................................. 18 2.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 20 CHAPTER 3 ................................................................................................................................. 22 3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Study Site .......................................................................................................................... 25 3.3 History of Natural Hazards in Dhofar ............................................................................... 26 3.4 Method of Inquiry ............................................................................................................. 27 3.4.1 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) ........................................................................... 28 3.4.2 Bathymetry ............................................................................................................ 28 3.4.3 Water Level ..........................................................................................................