MACKERRAS PENDULUM SOUTH AUSTRALIA 2022 Liberal Independent Total Labor Independent Total 26 1 27 19 1 20 LIBERAL - IND SEATS LABOR - IND SEATS 47 25.1 Flinders % % Croydon 22.7 47 45 25.0 MacKillop 20 20 43 18.6 Hammond Ramsay 19.0 45 41 18.5 Mount Gambier (Ind) Elizabeth 17.7 43 39 17.5 Bragg Port Adelaide 16.8 41 37 17.4 Narungga Playford 16.7 39 35 17.3 Chaffey Cheltenham 15.9 37 33 16.4 Frome 15 15 SWING TO LABOR PARTY TO SWING LIBERAL PARTY TO SWING 31 14.8 Kavel Kaurna 15.0 35 29 14.4 Schubert West Torrens 14.1 33 27 14.3 Finniss Giles 13.9 31 25 13.6 Stuart Florey (Ind) 13.4 29 23 11.3 Unley Reynell 10.9 27 21 10.2 Morialta Taylor 10.8 25 19 10.1 Morphett 10 10 17 9.9 Gibson Light 9.1 23 9 9 15 8.8 Davenport 13 8.7 Black Hurtle Vale 8.4 21 11 8.5 Heysen 8 8 9 7.9 Dunstan Enfield 7.9 19 7 7.8 Waite 7 7 5 6.5 Hartley 3 6.2 Colton 6 6 Torrens 5.6 17 Lee 5 5 5.4 15 4 4 Badcoe 3 3 4.5 2 1 1 2 13 Wright 3.6 11 L a b Elder o Mawson r- In d 2.1 M 51.9% a Adelaide 48.1% j o 1 King r Newland it y 0.8 1.0 0.8 L 0.2 ib KEY e 3 ra 9 l- Swing required I 5 3.6 nd 7 M to take seat ajo rity 11 Majority in seats Result of general election,17 March 2018, as adjusted for the redistribution by the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission completed in November 2020. No seat changes its name. Frome becomes Liberal. No other seat changes its party notionally. South Australian Two-Party Preferred Votes by Electoral District, 17 March 2018 Electoral District Labor Votes % Liberal Votes % Swing to Labor Swing Needed Winner Adelaide (a) 10,618 49.02 11,043 50.98 0.9 1.0 Rachel Sanderson (Liberal) Badcoe (c) 11,867 55.49 9,519 44.51 1.3 5.5 Jayne Stinson (Labor) Black (b) 10,245 41.33 14,546 58.67 -6.1 8.7 David Speirs (Liberal) Bragg (b) 7,513 32.55 15,566 67.45 -0.9 17.5 Vickie Chapman ( Liberal) Chaffey (b) 6,739 32.72 13,857 67.28 7.1 17.3 Tim Whetstone (Liberal) Cheltenham (b) 14,662 65.86 7,599 34.14 1.5 15.9 Jay Weatherill (Labor) (d) Colton (c) 10,341 42.12 14,211 57.88 -4.2 7.9 Matthew Cowdrey (Liberal) Croydon (c) 15,044 74.36 5,186 25.64 4.8 24.4 Peter Malinauskas (Labor) Davenport (b) 9,110 41.22 12,992 58.78 0.1 8.8 Steven Murray (Liberal) Dunstan (c) 9,829 43.89 12,566 56.11 -2.3 6.2 Steven Marshall (Liberal) Elder (c) 10,588 45.64 12,609 54.36 -0.1 4.4 Carolyn Habib (Liberal) Elizabeth (b) 15,686 67.66 7,499 32.34 7.8 17.7 Lee Odenwalder (Labor) Enfield (b) 12,554 57.87 9,139 42.13 1.7 7.9 John Rau (Labor) (d) Finniss (b) 7,641 35.77 13,718 64.23 -0.6 14.3 David Basham (Liberal) Flinders (c) 4,716 23.71 15,176 76.29 2.4 26.3 Peter Treloar (Liberal) Florey (c) 13,852 60.98 8,865 39.02 1.8 11.0 Frances Bedford (Independent) Frome (c) 8,052 38.90 12,648 61.10 -0.3 11.1 Geoff Brock (Independent) Gibson (c) 9,274 40.66 13,537 59.34 -6.2 9.4 Corey Wingard (Liberal) Giles (c) 12,732 65.15 6,810 34.85 9.5 15.2 Eddie Hughes (Labor) Hammond (c) 6,736 30.53 15,325 69.47 -3.2 19.5 Adrian Pederick (Liberal) Hartley (c) 9,007 42.24 12,316 57.76 -4.5 7.8 Vincent Tarzia (Liberal) Heysen (b) 9,414 41.52 13,259 58.48 5.1 8.5 Joshua Teague (Liberal) Hurtle Vale (c) 12,726 55.31 10,283 44.69 3.7 5.4 Nat Cook (Labor) Kaurna (b) 14,843 64.92 8,019 35.08 6.6 15.0 Chris Picton (Labor) Kavel (b) 7,597 35.23 13,965 64.77 -0.8 14.8 Dan Cregan (Liberal) King (b) 11,971 49.27 12,328 50.73 -2.2 0.8 Paula Luethen (Liberal) Lee (c) 12,485 53.85 10,701 46.15 1.4 3.9 Stephen Mullighan (Labor) Light (c) 13,516 59.90 9,048 40.10 6.0 9.9 Tony Piccolo (Labor) MacKillop (b) 5,184 25.04 15,519 74.96 1.8 25.0 Nick McBride (Liberal) Mawson (c) 11,149 50.26 11,034 49.74 3.2 0.3 Leon Bignell (Labor) Morialta (c) 9,151 39.27 14,151 60.73 0.8 10.8 John Gardner (Liberal) Morphett (c) 9,151 39.53 13,998 60.47 -2.8 10.5 Stephen Patterson (Liberal) Mount Gambier (a) 6,775 31.54 14,705 68.46 2.9 18.5 Troy Bell (Independent) Narungga (b) 7,210 32.63 14,883 67.37 -3.6 17.4 Fraser Ellis (Liberal) Newland (c) 10,993 48.04 11,888 51.96 -1.9 2.0 Richard Harvey (Liberal) Playford (c) 14,827 66.32 7,529 33.68 4.9 16.4 Michael Brown (Labor) Port Adelaide (b) 15,895 66.78 7,908 33.22 4.3 16.8 Susan Close (Labor) Ramsay (b) 15,374 68.92 6,933 31.08 1.6 19.0 Zoe Bettison (Labor) Reynell (c) 13,427 64.51 7,387 35.49 4.8 14.6 Katrine Hildyard (Labor) Schubert (b) 8,342 35.67 15,042 64.33 -2.0 14.4 Stephan Knoll (Liberal) Stuart (c) 5,468 26.92 14,847 73.08 -3.0 23.1 Dan van Holst Pellekaan (Liberal) Taylor (b) 13,660 60.80 8,808 39.20 2.0 10.8 Jon Gee (Labor) Torrens (c) 11,872 54.57 9,883 45.43 2.0 4.6 Dana Wortley (Labor) Unley (b) 9,072 38.72 14,355 61.28 -2.1 11.3 David Pisoni (Liberal) Waite (b) 10,374 42.20 14,211 57.80 2.6 7.8 Sam Duluk (Liberal) West Torrens (c) 14,010 63.22 8,152 36.78 1.1 13.3 Tom Koutsantonis (Labor) Wright (b) 12,767 53.51 11,091 46.49 -0.9 3.6 Blair Boyer (Labor) GRAND TOTAL 504,059 48.06 544,654 51.94 1.1 Notes: (a) In Adelaide and Mount Gambier there has been no change in boundaries. Consequently the new pendulum shows the swing needed to lose to be same as on the old pendulum. (b) There have been boundary changes in Black, Bragg, Chaffey, Cheltenham, Davenport, Elizabeth, Enfield, Finniss, Heysen, Kaurna, Kavel, King, MacKillop, Narungga, Port Adelaide, Ramsay, Schubert, Taylor, Unley, Waite and Wright. However, I have assessed their political effect as trivial. For that reason, the new pendulum shows the swing needed to lose to be the same as on the old pendulum. (c) In these seats I have used the statistics provided by the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission. (d) Note that late in 2018 Jay Weatherill and John Rau resigned their seats. Consequent on by-elections on 9 February 2019 the Labor members are now Joe Szakacs in Cheltenham and Andrea Michaels in Enfield. For Pendulum see other side.