HEMISPHERE FOCUS Volume XIII, Issue 2 June 28, 2005 A Guide to the July 3, 2005, Mexico State Gubernatorial Election George W. Grayson Introduction Analysts have labeled the Mexico State (Edomex) gubernatorial showdown a “critical indicator,” “overture,” and “preamble” with respect to the 2006 presidential contest. Although social scientists have discredited the concept of “bell weather” jurisdictions,1 Edomex represents a critical confrontation in anticipation of next year’s presidential “Super Bowl.” Five reasons buttress this conclusion about the state: (1) it embraces the nation’s largest population and largest number of voters; (2) since 1993 a tri-party system has prevailed—with the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the National Action Party (PAN), and the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD)—dominating the balloting; (3) despite gyrations in final tallies, PRI reverses in Edomex—the late-1996 municipal face-offs, for example— foreshadowed the party’s losing control of the Chamber of Deputies in 1997; (4) a synergism links Edomex to the Federal District (Distrito Federal–D.F.)—many citizens of the two entities read the same newspapers, watch identical television programs, work in the same offices, factories, and stores, and bemoan the common problems of violent street crime, traffic gridlock, pollution, inadequate housing, and unemployment; and (5) opinion leaders like domestic and foreign journalists, many of whom live in or near the state, assign great importance to what happens in Edomex. Not only is the state the largest in terms of population and voters, it also represents a microcosm of the country. Shaped like a high-heel lady’s shoe with the toe pointing southwest, it wraps around most of Mexico City. In the capital’s northern and western suburbs lies the “Corridor Azul” or “Blue Corridor” dominated by densely populated cities that stretch from Huixquilucan through Cuajimalpa, Naucalpan, Ciudad Satélite, and Tlalnepantla to Tultitlán where the PAN has increased its strength during the past decade. The PAN has also done well in the northeast or “arch municipalities” of Atizapán de Zaragoza and Cuautitlán Izcalli. In fact the three contenders for the PAN gubernatorial nomination—Rubén Mendoza Ayala (Tlalnepantla), José Luis Durán Reveles (Naucalpan) and Carlos Madrazo Limón (Atizapán)—have served as mayors of these booming cities. The PRD has gained important footholds in such dirt-poor municipalities in the northeast “heel” of that state as Texcoco, Nezahualcoyótl (“Neza”), San Salvador Atenco, and Chalco. The PRD also enjoys strength along Edomex’s “toe” that touches Morelos, as well as in the impoverished area contiguous to the affluent homes in the Valle de Bravo located west of Toluca. Although the PRI now occupies the city halls of Ecatepec and “Neza,” the party fares especially well in the Toluca-Atlacomulco-Tenancingo-Lerma rectangle, in rural areas, and among the state’s indigenous population, many of whom follow the traditional “uses and customs” of their communities. Mexico State Election Office to be filled: Governor Outgoing Governor: Arturo Montiel Rojas (PRI); born Oct. 15, 1943, Atlacomulco Election Date: July 3, 2005 Inauguration: Sept. 15, 2005 1 Edward R. Tufte and Richard A. Sun, “Are there Bellweather Electoral Districts?” Public Opinion Quarterly 39 (Spring 1975): 1–18. Americas Program • Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 • Tel: (202) 775-3207 • Fax: (202) 775-3199 • http://www.csis.org 2 Demographic and Socioeconomic Highlights Capital: Toluca2 Major Cities: Ecatepec (1,622,697), Nezahualcóyotl (1,225,972), Naucalpan (858,711), Tlalnepantla (721,415), Toluca (666,596) Land Area: 21.335 sq. km. (8,237 sq. miles) Population: 14,925,408 (May 25, 2005)—the population grows by one person every two minutes Road Network (2002): 10,001 kms. (6,200.62 miles) Rail Lines (2002): 1,284.1 kms. (796.14 miles) Airports: Toluca (international); Atizapán (national) Radio stations (2002): 23 Television stations (2002): 12 Telephone lines (early 2004): 2,213,781 GDP in current prices (2002): 603,389 billion pesos (62.5 billion dollars) Share of National GDP (2002): 9.64 percent Main Export Products (2003): Automobiles and auto parts, electrical products, machinery and equipment, plastic goods, tools, organic chemical products, and clothing Main Export Markets (2003): U.S. (67.7%), Canada (2.68%), Guatemala (2.04%), Venezuela (1.87%), Benelux (1.58%), Colombia (1.35%), Panama (1.27%), El Salvador (1.18%), Costa Rica (1.05%), Germany (.98%), others (18.23%) Major Export Firms (2003): General Motors, Daimler-Chrysler de México, Grupo Bimbo, Ford Motor Co., Nissan Mexicana, Controladora Mabe, KOF/Coca-Cola FEMSA, Grupo Modelo, Desc & subsidiaries, Vitro Vidrio Plano, Industrias Peñoles & subsidiaries, Industrias Unidas, Desc Automotriz, Minera México, San Luis Rassini Autopartes & subsidiaries, Siemens México, and Condumex 2 Although the city’s formal name is Toluca de Lerdo, the author has employed the briefer versions—and commonly used— appellations of municipalities in the state. Americas Program • Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 • Tel: (202) 775-3207 • Fax: (202) 775-3199 • http://www.csis.org 3 Gross State Product Economic sector Percent Manufacturing 31.04 Restaurants, Hotels, and Commerce 21.54 Financial Services, Insurance, and Real Estate 15.75 Services 15.05 Transport, Storage, and Communications 10.71 Agriculture, Silvaculture, and Fishing 3.14 Miscellaneous 2.77 Total 100.00 Source: Secretaría de Desarrollo Económico, Perfil Básico del Estado de Mexico, www.edomexico.gob.mx/sdeco/htm/principal.asp. Economic Indicators Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Growth in GDP National 3.7 6.6 -0.1 0.7 1.3 4.4 State 3.7 6.9 1.2 -1.2 0.9 5.1 New Employees 105,782 91,016 20,402 33,837 N.A. 68,208 17,194 (IMSS) (Through Apr. 22) Insured by IMSS 1,202,933 1,293,949 1,314,351 1,348,188 1,344,477 1,412,685 1,429,879 (Through Apr. 22) Salaried N.A. 3,736,079 3,805,967 3,860,774 4,042,500 4,199,703 Workers Growth in Salaried N.A. N.A. 69,888 54,807 181,726 157,203 Workers Growth in N.A. N.A. 35,126 -8,192 57,783 38,203 Unemployed Workers Net Generation of N.A. N.A. 34,762 62,999 123,933 119,000 Employment Direct Foreign 1,018,260 1,295,884 1,045,571 1,315,510 1,321,771 776,270 281,440 Investment (Through $ millions Apr. 22) Projects 52 65 61 80 125 108 26 Completed (Through Apr. 22) Employment 850 9,638 10,601 7,677 20,622 16,989 4,407 Generated (Through Apr. 22) Source: Edomex, Subsecretaría de Planeación para el Desarrollo Económico 2004, May 12, 2005, www.edomex.gob.mx. Americas Program • Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 • Tel: (202) 775-3207 • Fax: (202) 775-3199 • http://www.csis.org 4 Governors of Mexico State, 1904–2005 Governor Period in Office Arturo Montiel Rojas 16 September 1995 – present César Camacho Quiroz 2 July 1995 – 16 September 1995 Emilio Chuayffet Chemor 16 September 1993 – 2 July 1995 Ignacio Pichardo Pagaza 11 September 1989 – 16 September 1993 Mario Ramón Beteta Monsalve 16 September 1987 – 7 September 1989 Alfredo Baranda García 21 April 1986 – 15 September 1987 Alfredo del Mazo González 16 September 1981 – 18 April 1986 Jorge Jiménez Cantú 16 September 1975 – 15 September 1981 Carlos Hank González 16 September 1969 – 15 September 1975 Juan Fernández Albarrán 16 September 1963 – 15 September 1969 Dr. Gustavo Baz de Prada 16 September 1957 – 15 September 1963 Salvador Sánchez Colín 16 September 1951 – 15 September 1957 Alfredo del Mazo Vélez 16 September 1945 – 15 September 1951 Isidro Fabela Alfaro 16 March 1942 – 15 September 1945 José L. Gutiérrez 8 March 1942 – 15 March 1942 Alfredo Zárate Albarrán 16 September 1941 – 5 March 1942 (Assassinated) Colonel Wenceslao Labra García 16 September 1937 – 15 September 1941 Eucario López Contreras 3 July 1936 – 15 September 1937 José Luis Solorzano 16 September 1933 – 27 June 1936 (Resigned) General Filiberto Gómez 16 September 1929 – 15 September 1933 D. Carlos Riva Palacio 16 September 1925 – 15 September 1929 General Abundio Gómez Twice between 5 August 1920 and 16 September 1925 Manuel Campos Mena 8 February 1921 – 6 September 1921 Dr. Darío López 12 May – 5 August 1920 Francisco Javier Gaxiola 11 September 1919 – 8 March 1920 Joaquín García Luna 6 September 1918 – 4 March 1919 General Agustín Millán Thrice between 30 June 1917 and 8 March 1920 General Carlos Tejeda 15 January – 20 June 1917 General Dr. Rafael Cepáeda 22 August 1916 – 1 January 1917 General Pascual Morales October 1915 – January 1917 General Francisco Murguía August 1914 – December 1914 General Joaquín Beltrán Thrice between 1913 and 1914 General José Refugio Velazco July October 1913 Francisco León de la Barra March 1913 – May 1913 Dr. Antonio Vilchis Barbasoa 25 March 1913 – 16 May 1913 Manuel Medina Garduño 9 October 1911 – 20 March 1913 Dr. Rafael M. Hidalgo Twice between 1911 and 1914 Carlos Castillo May 1909 General Fernando González Four periods between 1904 and 1911 Source: Roderic Ai Camp, Mexican Political Biographies 1935-1993 (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1995), p. 949; and material furnished by the Mexico state government. Americas Program • Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 • Tel: (202) 775-3207 • Fax: (202) 775-3199 • http://www.csis.org 5 Electoral Data Registration (March 31, 2005): 8,770,736—51.79% women; 48.21% men (12.94%