Drivers of deforestation, identication of threatened forests and forest co-benets other than carbon from REDD+ implementation in Zambia Republic of Zambia Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Authors: Bernard M. Chomba [email protected] Obster Tembo [email protected] Katumwa Mutandi [email protected] Abraham Makano [email protected] Stephen C. Mtongo [email protected] Contributing Author Mrs Ing’utu Simasiku Kazinga Citation: Chomba, B.M., Tembo, O., Mutandi, K., Mtongo,C.S., & Makano, A. 2012. Drivers of deforestation, identification of threatened forests and forest co- benefits other than carbon from REDD+ implementation in Zambia. A consultancy report prepared for the Forestry Department and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations under the national UN-REDD Programme: Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and Environmental Protection. Lusaka, Zambia. 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FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. ii Detailed and spatially explicit analysis of the drivers of deforestation, identication of threatened forests and forest co-benets other than carbon from REDD+ implementation in Zambia May 2013 CONTENTS Acknowledgements iii Acronyms vi Glossary vii Executive summary viii Introduction 1 General background ..........................................................................................................................................................................................1 The problem ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................1 Purpose of the study .........................................................................................................................................................................................1 Vegetation types and forest resources of Zambia .................................................................................................................................2 Vegetation types of Zambia ...................................................................................................................................................................................2 Forest resources in Zambia .....................................................................................................................................................................................3 Study areas 5 Approach and methodology 8 Methods for collecting non-spatial data ..................................................................................................................................................8 Literature review (i.e. desktop study) ..................................................................................................................................................................8 Participatory learning ...............................................................................................................................................................................................8 Resource mapping ......................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Consultations ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Ranking the drivers of deforestation by community members............................................................................................................ 10 Methods for collecting spatial data ..........................................................................................................................................................10 Preparation of Landsat satellite data ............................................................................................................................................................. 10 Forest/non-forest cover map production ...................................................................................................................................................... 10 Forest/non-forest cover map validation ........................................................................................................................................................ 10 Generation of statistics, forest cover change analysis and prediction..............................................................................................11 Determination of strength and importance of the drivers of deforestation ..................................................................................11 Land-use and carbon-stock change modelling ...........................................................................................................................................11 Study findings, analysis and discussions 12 Spatially explicit simulation of the drivers of deforestation ..........................................................................................................12 Kapiri Mposhi District ............................................................................................................................................................................................12 Nakonde District ......................................................................................................................................................................................................15 Isoka District ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................16 Kabompo District .....................................................................................................................................................................................................20 Sesheke District ........................................................................................................................................................................................................23 Prediction of future forest cover .......................................................................................................................................................................25 Extrapolation of spatial data results ...............................................................................................................................................................25 Non-spatial analysis of the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation .........................................................................26 Identification and ranking of the drivers of deforestation ....................................................................................................................26 Proximate drivers .....................................................................................................................................................................................................26 Case study: Sesheke and Kapiri Mposhi Districts .....................................................................................................................................34 Underlying Drivers ...................................................................................................................................................................................................35 Case studies ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................38 Case study 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