Savills World Research Xiamen Briefing Office sector April 2017 Image: Xiamen Southeast International Shipping Centre, Haicang district SUMMARY New projects on the Island continue to put short-term pressure on both rent and vacancy levels, while the Mainland saw vacancy rates improve due to a lack of new supply. Only one new project, TFC in the of RMB87.7 per sq m per month, Siming district, launched in Q4/2016, revealing a slight downward trend. “The Haicang district will not only adding 177,000 sq m to the office market. No new projects entered the Strata-title transaction prices receive the greatest volume of new market in Q1/2017. reached RMB22,592 per sq m in Grade A office space in 2017, but will Q1/2017, up 1.4% YoY. The launch of City-wide net take-up between several high-quality projects available also see a large supply of land plots Q4/2016 and Q1/2017 reached for sale increased overall price levels. 391,749 sq m. titled for office use. This, combined Eight new projects are expected with the impact of the Xiamen FTZ City-wide vacancy rates stood to enter the market in 2017, adding at 18.4%, down 0.3% year-on-year 1.19 million sq m to the current stock and other beneficial policies, has (YoY). of 4.93 million sq m. improved the future outlook of the The average Grade A office rent Haicang office market.” Robert Ritacca, decreased 1.4% YoY, to an average Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 01 Briefing |Xiamen office sector April 2017 Market summary GRAPH 1 The city’s Grade A office market saw Grade A office supply, take-up and vacancy six projects handed over in 2016, rates, 2010 – 2017/Q1 all on the Island, with five located in New supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS) the Siming district. Due to the large 700,000 35% amount of new supply, the Siming submarket saw a relatively high 600,000 30% uptick in vacancy rates. No projects launched in Q1/2017, giving the 500,000 25% market time to absorb some of the excess supply and causing city- 400,000 20% wide vacancy levels to decrease slightly by 0.3% YoY to 18.4%. 300,000 15% By the end of 2016, new Grade A 200,000 10% office supply was approximately 375,000 sq m, increasing city- 100,000 5% wide total Grade A office stock by 10% YoY, to 3.74 million sq m. At the same time, market absorption 0 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1 remained strong, with net take-up exceeding 391,000 sq m. Source: Savills Research The overall Grade A office market recorded strong annual absorption, GRAPH 2 with take-up volume surpassing Grade A office rental indices, Q1/2010 – Q1/2017 new supply. However, due to the centralisation of new supply, All Siming Huli Mainland submarkets reported a variety of 125 different performances. For example, 120 the Huli district, located on the 115 island, received relatively less new supply, causing vacancy rates to 110 decrease by the largest margin of 105 any district, 7.1 percentage points 100 (ppts) YoY. As a result, the average Q1/2010=100 vacancy rates of the mainland 95 office market fell by 6.1 ppts YoY 90 to 43%. By contrast, the Island’s 85 Siming district has seen a significant supply influx since Q2/2016, which 80 has increased vacancy rates in the submarket. Source: Savills Research With the exception of the Siming district, submarkets on the island maintain a lower vacancy rate than issues will not be resolved in the near of the higher quality office projects in their mainland counterparts such as future. the future. Haicang and Jimei, which continue to see vacancy rates over 30%. The Cross-strait Financial Centre in City-wide rents decreased 1.4% Despite its relatively smaller size, the the Siming district has become the YoY in Q1/2017, to an average of mainland’s Grade A office market submarket where most new supply is RMB87.7 per sq m per month. continues to see supply outpace located, leading to a relatively higher demand, resulting in a higher average vacancy rate relative to With a large amount of new supply vacancy rate. With the Haicang other submarkets on the island. With entering the market in the second district now the main source of office more expensive office land supply half of 2016, the city’s rental indices, land supply in the city, it is expected than other areas, the Cross-Strait especially those on the island, that the mainland’s oversupply Financial Centre is expecting some have declined. The Lujiang Ave/ 02 Briefing |Xiamen office sector April 2017 Xiahe Rd business area saw the economic area has continued to sale projects that launched in 2016, largest decrease due to the high generate new demand for projects such as the Shimao Tower and the concentration of new projects. The in the area, recording 13,371 new W Square, helped push average Island’s Huli and Siming districts company registrations between prices on the island higher. Average both saw average rents fall this year January and September 2016 alone. transaction prices on the mainland in response to the supply influx. remain lower than the two island City-wide average strata-title prices districts, at RMB15,750 per sq m. Except for the Hubin Rd and Haicang reached RMB22,592 per sq m, up submarkets, no other business 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) The decrease in rental levels, in areas saw a YoY increase in rents and 1.4% YoY. Prices in the Siming addition to an increase in city- in Q1/2017. The Xiamen Free Trade district maintained their top spot wide pricing, led to a decrease in Zone (FTZ) contributed to the rental at RMB26,833 per sq m, followed strata-title yields, which averaged growth witnessed in the Hubin Rd. by the Huli district at RMB19,650 just 4.16% in Q1/2017. The Siming and Haicang submarkets. The special per sq m. High-quality, available for district saw the highest yields in the city, with an average of 4.47%. By comparison, yields in the Huli district GRAPH 3 reached 3.7%, while the mainland Grade A strata-title office price indices, Q1/2011 market averaged 3.50%. – Q1/2017 Few business areas saw increases All Siming Huli Mainland in rents in Q1/2017. The traditional 130 Lujiang Ave/Xiahe Rd CBD, which has recorded continuous rental 125 decline since early 2016, saw the 120 largest rental decrease among all 115 submarket at the start of 2017. However, due to land scarcity, few 110 new projects are expected to be Q1/2011=100 105 launched in this area. Meanwhile, the Xiamen FTZ has had a positive 100 impact on the development of 95 surrounding grade A office markets, helping the Hubin Rd and Haicang 90 areas to become the only submarkets to record rental growth in Q1/2017. Source: Savills Research The Cross-strait Financial Centre’s office stock has surpassed those GRAPH 4 of other submarkets. With the Grade A office rental indices, Q1/2010 – Q1/2017 Guanyinshan Business Operation Centre expecting to receive a number of high-quality office projects in the Stock(LHS) Rental Change(RHS) City-wide Rental Change(RHS) near future, the importance of the 1,400,000 8% Cross-strait Financial Centre to the city’s office market will only increase. 1,200,000 4% 1,000,000 Market outlook Eight projects are expected to launch 0% 800,000 in 2017, adding 1.19 million sq m to -1.4% the current market and increasing sq m 600,000 -4% Grade A office stock by 33% to 4.93 million sq m. Future supply will be 400,000 concentrated in the Siming, Huli -8% and Haicang districts. The Haicang 200,000 district is expected to account for the - -12% largest percentage of new supply, Xiamen Hubin Rd. Huli Centre Lujiang Ave.- Wuyuan Bay Cross-strait Jimei Haicang Station- Xiahe Rd. Financial approximately 51% of the expected Lianban Centre total. In addition, the Haicang district, Source: Savills Research which accounted for 38% and savills.com.cn/research 03 Briefing |Xiamen office sector April 2017 77% of office land supply in 2015 and 2016, respectively, will remain the main recipient of future office Project Information land plots, accounting for 100% of all supply in Q1/2017. However, TFC while the Island’s office market will continue to see the greatest TFC is located on the eastern Peoject TFC development in the near future, side of Xiamen Island, to the north development will gradually transfer to of the International Convention the mainland, where land resources & Exhibition Centre. The project are plentiful and more affordable. consists of two super-high-rise The market is expected to continue grade A office buildings, high-class to see strong absorption levels, business facilities, the Banlam although a large volume of new Grand Theatre and a 2,500-space supply in 2017, most of which is underground car park. The project located in the Haicang area, will put has approximately 177,000 sq m downward pressure on occupancy Location Siming district of Grade A office space on the and rental levels in the submarket. Owner Xiamen Tefang Group leasing market. The buildings are However, the continued development Handover Date Q4/2016 of the retail and residential market comprised of 48 above-ground in the Haicang area is expected to floors and three underground GFA 177,000 sq m accelerate demand for office space floors, with a standard floor area of Lease/Sales Lease/Sales in the area, which should increase 2,000 sq m.