Transat-COVER-3.qxd 12/11/2003 15:04 Page 1 Shift or Rift Assessing US-EU relations after Iraq Nicole Gnesotto, Stanley Hoffmann, Antonio Missiroli, David Gompert, Jean-Yves Haine, Ivo Daalder, James Lindsay, Martin Ortega, Patrick Clawson, Dimitrios Triantaphyllou, Daniel Serwer, Gustav Lindstrom, Brian Jenkins Edited by Gustav Lindstrom Institute for Security Studies Security for Institute Transatlantic Book 2003 Book Transatlantic European Union European Transat-COVER-3.qxd 12/11/2003 15:04 Page 2 Transatlantic Book 2003 Transatlantic Shift or Rift In January 2002 the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) beca- me an autonomous Paris-based agency of the European Union. Following an EU Council Joint Action of 20 July . 2001, it is now an integral part of the new structures Assessing US-EU relations after Iraq that will support the further development of the CFSP/ESDP. The Institute’s core mission is to provide analyses and recommendations that can be of use and relevance to the formulation of the European security and defence policy. In carrying out that mission, it also acts as an interface between European experts and decision-makers at all levels. edited by Gustav Lindstrom TRANSATEnglish-Text.qxd 12/11/2003 14:56 Page 1 Shift or rift Assessing US-EU relations after Iraq Nicole Gnesotto, Stanley Hoffmann, Antonio Missiroli, David Gompert, Jean-Yves Haine, Ivo Daalder, James Lindsay, Martin Ortega, Patrick Clawson, Dimitrios Triantaphyllou, Daniel Serwer, Gustav Lindstrom, Brian Jenkins Edited by Gustav Lindstrom Institute for Security Studies European Union Paris TRANSATEnglish-Text.qxd 12/11/2003 14:56 Page 2 Institute for Security Studies European Union Paris Director: Nicole Gnesotto © EU Institute for Security Studies 2003. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the EU Institute for Security Studies. ISBN 92-9198-043-9 Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Alençon (France) by l’Alençonnaise d’Impressions. Cover design by Hanno Ranck. TRANSATEnglish-Text.qxd 12/11/2003 14:56 Page 3 Contents Preface 7 Nicole Gnesotto Introduction 9 Gustav Lindstrom US and EU visions of the world 1 The crisis in transatlantic relations 13 Stanley Hoffmann 2 EU, US: visions of the world, visions of the other 21 Nicole Gnesotto • Visions of the world 23 • Visions of the other 33 • Conclusion 42 The future of Europe 3 What does America want of Europe? 43 David C. Gompert • Introduction 43 • The political effects of Iraq - breakdown and catharsis 45 • The larger problem - the capabilities gap and the role of force 49 • An interests-based relationship 57 • Alternative futures 63 • Conclusion 73 4 Mind the gaps - across the Atlantic and the Union 77 Antonio Missiroli • American apples and European oranges 77 • Euros and defence 80 • Hubs and spokes 85 TRANSATEnglish-Text.qxd 12/11/2003 14:56 Page 4 The future of the United States American foreign policy and transatlantic relations 5 in the age of global politics 91 Ivo H. Daalder and James M.Lindsay • The lone global power 92 • Globalisation 94 • Hegemonists vs. globalists: the utility of power 95 • Who is right? 96 • Implications for the transatlantic relationship 99 • A tipping-point? 101 6 Power without restraint? Back to realities 105 Jean-Yves Haine • Global by ambition, alone by choice 106 • Flawed by logic, risky by nature 112 • Multilateral by identity, together by necessity 119 • Options for the future 122 CASE STUDY 1: US and EU priorities in the Middle East 7 US and European priorities in the Middle East 127 Patrick Clawson • Israeli-Palestinian peace process 127 • International intervention for Palestinian-Israeli peace? 132 • Reconstructing Iraq 135 • Iran’s nuclear programme 137 • Promoting reform 144 • Conclusion 145 8 The Achilles heel of transatlantic relations 147 Martin Ortega • US leadership, ups and downs 148 • EU involvement 150 • Shaky scenarios 152 • American and European perceptions of the Middle East 155 • The price of prejudice: Israel and Iraq 158 • From perception to vision: towards an EU policy on the Middle East 160 • Basic principles for an EU Middle East policy 163 • Epilogue: the advantages of a transatlantic policy on the Middle East 166 4 TRANSATEnglish-Text.qxd 12/11/2003 14:56 Page 5 CASE STUDY 2: US and EU in the Balkans 9 The Balkans: from American to European leadership 169 Daniel Serwer • US interests in the Balkans are multiple but secondary 170 • European interests are more vital but varied 173 • Lack of cooperation leads to ineffectiveness 176 • US leadership changes the picture 178 • The future of US/European cooperation in the Balkans 183 • Is Europe ready? 187 • Conclusions 189 The interplay between the EU and the United States 10 in the Balkans 191 Dimitrios Triantaphyllou • Between the end of the Cold War and the Dayton/Paris Accords 194 • The implications of US involvement 199 • American exceptionalism and the Balkans 204 CASE STUDY 3: Terrorism — US and European perspectives The US response to terrorism and its implications for 11 transatlantic relations 207 Brian Michael Jenkins • Towards a global phenomenon 207 • Escalating violence 210 • The US response 212 • Transatlantic differences 220 • Efforts and challenges post-9/11 226 12 Terrorism: European myths and realities 231 Gustav Lindstrom • Myth 1: Europeans don’t care about terrorism 231 • Myth 2: Europeans are not willing to use military might to combat terrorism 237 • Myth 3: European and US approaches to combating terrorism are incompatible 245 • Implications for the transatlantic link 248 a Annexes 251 • About the authors 251 • Abbreviations 253 5 TRANSATEnglish-Text.qxd 12/11/2003 14:56 Page 6 6 TRANSATEnglish-Text.qxd 12/11/2003 14:56 Page 7 Preface Nicole Gnesotto 003 will be remembered as an annus horribilis par excellence for international relations as a whole but particularly transat- 2 lantic relations. Disagreements between individual countries over the questions of whether Iraq really posed a threat and the legitimacy of military intervention have been, and remain, massive, and divisions between Europe and America have fuelled similar differences within the European Union itself. The gulf between the people of Europe and their governments has been no less marked, a clear majority of the public, either through opinion polls or in street demonstrations, having expressed their hostility to US policy on Iraq. Since the beginning of the autumn, out of weariness, resignation or pragmatism, an apparent rec- onciliation – what Kofi Annan has referred to as a semblance of consen- sus – seems to be emerging on both sides, without any illusions and with- out any noticeable effect on either the reality of the situation in Iraq or the strength of the Euro-American relationship. A multitude of questions arise from this. How is it that we have arrived at such a situation? Why is it that American neo-conservatives think they can take liberties with international law that they would refuse to allow even their closest ally to take? How, and how far, will it be possible to reduce the world’s extreme political complexity to simply an opposition of good and evil? Why should the Europeans accept that rela- tions of authority become a rule in transatlantic affairs, with the unin- tended risk that it undermines the basic democratic value of their alliance with America? Future generations will have the difficult task of judging the responsibility of each actor in bringing us to what, no matter which way one looks at it, appears to be a watershed in the contemporary his- tory of democracies. The aim of this book is more modest: to explore, through various American and European viewpoints, the extent to which a convergence of values and truly common interests could, leaving aside all ideology, make it possible to rebuild a transatlantic relationship that is dignified and respectful, but above all of benefit to the security of all. I am most thankful to Gustav Lindstrom, who is responsible for the Institute’s transatlantic programme, for having taken the lead in this project. Paris, October 2003 7 TRANSATEnglish-Text.qxd 12/11/2003 14:56 Page 8 8 TRANSATEnglish-Text.qxd 12/11/2003 14:56 Page 9 Shift or rift Introduction Assessing US-EU relations after Iraq Gustav Lindstrom The idea behind this transatlantic book predates the intense transatlantic exchanges that took place prior to the war in Iraq in early 2003. The run-up to the passage of UN Resolution 1441 in November 2002 provided clear indications that Euro-American relations were about to enter previously uncharted territory. Given these developments, the Institute decided to produce an extensive study analysing the state of transatlantic relations. For each topic, two authors – one American and one European – were commissioned to provide their thoughts and insights. The result is twelve distinct chapters covering six diverse topics. The book provides both a general overview of US-European relations and investigates specific issue areas through case studies. The diversity on the American side is particularly great, with five different insti- tutions represented among the authors. On the European side, contributions come from the multinational research team at the EU Institute for Security Studies. It should be noted that the views expressed in these chapters are the authors’ alone, and do not nec- essarily reflect those of their institutes. They were written between the spring and summer of 2003. The first two chapters cover US and EU visions of the world. They set the stage by analysing American and European foreign policy objectives and how these have diverged over the past few years. The American contribution – by Stanley Hoffmann – revis- its the transatlantic crisis that reached its climax during the war in Iraq.