Integrated Electricity and Gas Systems Studies: Electrification of Heating [Project number and Title] August 2021 Project number: RP1.1-02 Regional Case Studies on Multi-Energy System Integration Authors: Sleiman Mhanna, The University of Melbourne Isam Saedi, The University of Melbourne Pierluigi Mancarella, The University of Melbourne This work is funded by the Future Fuels CRC, supported through the Australian Government’s Cooperative Research Centres Program. We gratefully acknowledge the cash and in-kind support from all our research, government and industry participants. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Future Fuels CRC advises that the information contained in this report comprises statements based on research. Future Fuels CRC makes no warranty, express or implied, for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of such information or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights, including any parties intellectual property rights. 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All Rights Reserved PROJECT INFORMATION Project number RP1.1-02 Project title Regional Case Studies on Multi-Energy System Integration Research Program RP1 Future Fuels Markets Systems and Technology Electrification and hydrogen production/injection studies for Description Victoria under AEMO’s ISP for years 2025 and 2035 Research Provider University of Melbourne Prof Pierluigi Mancarella (Lead), University of Melbourne Prof Michael Brear, University of Melbourne Project Leader and Team Prof Mike Young, University of Adelaide Dr. Sleiman Mhanna, University of Melbourne Isam Saedi, University of Melbourne Industry Proponent and Advisor Team Dr Dennis Van Puyvelde (Energy Networks Australia) Project start/completion date March 2019 - March 2022 IP Status Public Approved by Dr Dennis Van Puyvelde Date of approval 17/09/2020 RP1.1-02: Regional Case Studies on Multi-Energy System Integration – Electrification and Hydrogen Injection 4 Table of Contents Project Information ......................................................................................... 4 Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 8 1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 9 2. Setup ............................................................................................................. 10 2.1. AEMO’s ISP scenarios ...................................................................................................................... 10 2.2. Electricity network expansion ......................................................................................................... 10 2.3. Gas supply adequacy outlook and network expansion .................................................................. 11 2.4. Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 15 3. Electrification of residential heating ........................................................... 16 3.1. 1-in-20-year peak gas system demand day (August 09, 2025) ....................................................... 17 3.2. Low-wind 1-in-20-year peak gas system demand day (August 9, 2025) ........................................ 20 3.3. Average winter demand day (July 03, 2025) .................................................................................. 24 3.4. Low-wind average winter demand day (July 03, 2025) .................................................................. 26 3.5. Average autumn demand day (May 21, 2025) ............................................................................... 29 3.6. CO2 emissions (2025) ...................................................................................................................... 33 4. Conclusions .................................................................................................. 34 5. Implications and recommendations for industry ...................................... 35 6. Next step and future work ........................................................................... 36 References: Main report ..................................................................................... 37 Appendix A: Transient gas flow modelling ....................................................... 38 Appendix B: Emission factors - 2025 ................................................................ 39 Appendix C: Electrification studies for 2035 .................................................... 40 Appendix D: Emission factors - 2035 ................................................................ 44 Appendix E: Emission Factors in Tasmania and South Australia .................. 45 References: Appendices .................................................................................... 47 RP1.1-02: Regional Case Studies on Multi-Energy System Integration – Electrification of heating 5 TABLES Table 1: Forecast DTS supply adequacy for 2019 and 2024 (including anticipated supply projects and pipeline constraints). .......................................................................................................................................................... 12 Table 2: Gas consumption by sector in Victoria. ................................................................................................... 16 Table 3: Emission factors of coal-fired generators in Victoria in 2025 as per AEMO’s Input and Assumptions Workbook 2019 [5]. ............................................................................................................................................... 39 Table 4: Emission factors of GPGs in Victoria in 2025 as per AEMO’s Input and Assumptions Workbook 2019 [5]. .............................................................................................................................................................................. 39 Table 5: Average CO2 emissions factors for NSW, Tasmania, and South Australia in 2025 and 2035. ................ 41 Table 6: Average wind generation and proportion of total wind energy cross 24 hours for each representative day in 2035. ................................................................................................................................................................. 41 Table 7: CO2 emissions in 2025 and 2035 for the five representative days. ......................................................... 43 Table 8: Emission factors of coal-fired generators in Victoria in 2035 as per AEMO’s Input and Assumptions Workbook 2019 [5]. ............................................................................................................................................... 44 Table 9: Emission factors of GPGs in Victoria in 2035 as per AEMO’s Input and Assumptions Workbook 2019 [10]. .............................................................................................................................................................................. 44 Table 10: Average CO2 emissions factors for NSW, Tasmania, and South Australia in 2025 and 2035. In this scenario, the emissions in Tasmania and South Australia were further reduced by 50% of their value in Table 5. .............................................................................................................................................................................. 45 Table 11: CO2 emissions in 2025 and 2035 for the five representative days under the emissions in Table 10. ... 45 Table 12: Average CO2 emissions factors for NSW, Tasmania, and South Australia in 2025 and 2035. In this scenario, the emissions in Tasmania and South Australia were further reduced by 100% of their value in Table 5. .............................................................................................................................................................................. 46 Table 13: CO2 emissions in 2025 and 2035 for the five representative days under the emissions in Table 12. ... 46 FIGURES Figure 1: Identified potential REZ across the NEM [1]. ......................................................................................... 10 Figure 2: Retirement of some coal-fired generators [1]. ........................................................................................ 10 Figure 3: Preferred network augmentation option for the Western Victoria Renewable Integration RIT-T [6]. ...... 11 Figure 4: Our representation of the Victorian part of the NEM with the new transmission lines in green and the minor augmentations in black................................................................................................................................ 11 Figure 5: Actual and forecast peak day gas supply capacity (including pipeline constraints) by location, and peak day gas demand, from 2013 to 2024 [8]. ............................................................................................................... 11 Figure 6: Our representation of the Victorian DTS with the WORM highlighted in red. ......................................... 12 Figure 7: Historical and simulated