MetroLink Scheme Reference number TP-041 22/03/2018 METROLINK SCHEME – COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS METROLINK SCHEME METROLINK SCHEME – COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS IDENTIFICATION TABLE Client/Project owner National Transport Authority (NTA) Project MetroLink Scheme Study MetroLink Scheme – Cost Benefit Analysis Type of document Final Report Date 22/03/2018 File name MetroLink Cost Benefit Analysis DRAFT Report - v2.5.docx Framework NTA TPS Framework Reference number TP-041 Confidentiality Highly confidential Number of pages 28 APPROVAL Version Name Position Date Modifications Principal Author Paul Hussey 21/03/2018 Consultant v1 Draft for client 1 Checked by Ian Byrne Director 21/03/2018 review Approved by Ian Byrne Director 21/03/2018 Principal Author Paul Hussey 22/03/2018 Consultant 2 Checked by Ian Byrne Director 22/03/2018 V2 Approved by Ian Byrne Director 22/03/2018 4. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS SUMMARY 17 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4.1 INTRODUCTION 17 4.2 TRANSPORT USER BENEFITS 17 1. INTRODUCTION 5 4.3 COST ESTIMATES 18 1.1 CONTEXT 5 4.4 CALCULATION OF BENEFIT TO COST RATIO FOR METROLINK 19 1.2 PURPOSE OF METROLINK COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS 5 APPENDIX A – TUBA ECONOMIC FILE 20 1.3 SCHEME APPRAISAL GUIDANCE 6 1.4 OVERVIEW OF METROLINK 7 LIST OF FIGURES 2. TRANSPORT MODELLING APPROACH 11 Figure 1. MetroLink Route Alignment 8 2.1 INTRODUCTION 11 Figure 2. Metro and Luas Trains Peak Period Service Provision 13 2.2 ERM USE FOR METROLINK TRANSPORT MODELLING AND APPRAISAL 11 Figure 3. Metro and Luas Trains Inter-Peak Service Provision 13 2.3 LAND-USE ASSUMPTIONS 11 Figure 4. TUBA Process Diagram 15 2.4 SCENARIO DESCRIPTION 11 LIST OF TABLES 2.5 TRANSPORT USER BENEFITS APPRAISAL (TUBA) 14 3. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS 15 Table 1. Interchange Opportunity Key 8 Table 2. MetroLink Stations – Southern Section 9 3.1 OVERVIEW 15 Table 3. MetroLink Stations – Northern Section (NMN) 10 Table 4. Transport User Benefit Summary – MetroLink 17 3.2 INPUTS GENERATED BY THE ERM 15 Table 5. Present Value of Costs (PVC) 18 3.3 STANDARD ECONOMIC PARAMETERS 16 Table 6. Benefit to Cost Ratio 19 3.4 METROLINK COST ESTIMATES USED IN THE APPRAISAL 16 MetroLink Scheme MetroLink Scheme – Cost Benefit Analysis TP-041 Final Report 22/03/2018 Page 4/28 of the scheme in terms of its economic viability which is measured 1. INTRODUCTION in terms of transport user benefits and Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR). This is based on the current available project details and in 1.1 Context advance of the preparation of a comprehensive business case. This appraisal: 1.1.1 There are a number of key infrastructure measures which form Includes a range of indicative cost estimates for MetroLink; part of the Government’s Project Ireland 20401 - National Includes benefits calculated from a transport modelling Planning Framework (NPF) and National Development Plan (NDP) assessment of MetroLink which use broad assumptions 2018-2027 and the National Transport Authority’s (NTA) Greater regarding scheme operation and design; and Dublin Area (GDA) Transport Strategy2. These key infrastructure Does not consider at this stage, other recognised economic measures include MetroLink, DART Expansion3, Luas and Bus impacts arising from major transport schemes such as: Connects4. These schemes, which will support the delivery of an environmentally sustainable low-carbon public transport system, Safety impacts associated with reductions in road will ensure that public transport will be able to meet the collisions; significant growth in passenger demand for public transport Health, absenteeism and journey ambience impacts services in the Eastern and Midlands Region by 2040. associated with changes in walking and cycling travel; and The NTA commissioned SYSTRA to undertake a high level Wider Economic Benefits (WEBS). transport modelling and cost benefit analysis of the proposed MetroLink scheme. This report should not be considered a business case for 1.2 Purpose of MetroLink Cost Benefit Analysis MetroLink. However, it provides a robust and rigorous assessment of the scheme transport user benefits that 1.2.1 The purpose of the MetroLink cost benefit analysis presented in MetroLink achieves and is compliant with the latest this report is to provide an initial indication of the performance guidance for scheme appraisal in Ireland. 1 Project Ireland 2040 is the Government’s overarching planning policy initiative for development up to 3 The DART Expansion Programme consists of a number of investment projects that will significantly expand 2040. It was published along with its associated documents the National Planning Framework to 2040 and the heavy rail capacity, frequency and connectivity throughout the GDA. the National Development Plan 2018-2027 in February 2018. 4 Bus Connects is a project, run by the NTA, to overhaul the current bus system in the Dublin Region 2 The Transport Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area, 2016-2035 was prepared and published by the (https://www.busconnects.ie/about/) National Transport Authority in 2016 MetroLink Scheme MetroLink Scheme – Cost Benefit Analysis TP-041 Final Report 22/03/2018 Page 5/28 1.3 Scheme Appraisal Guidance 1.3.4 The appraisal parameters covering benefit and cost discounting and shadow pricing within the PSC have been applied in the 1.3.1 The cost benefit analysis of MetroLink presented in this report appraisal of MetroLink in this report. has taken account of relevant guidance from the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (DPER) and the Department for Common Appraisal Framework Transport, Tourism and Sport (DTTaS). (CAF) 1.3.2 In particular, this appraisal is informed by the requirements of 1.3.5 The purpose of CAF is to develop DPER’s Public Spending Code and the (DTTaS) Common Appraisal a common framework for the Framework (CAF) for Transport Projects and Programmes, which appraisal of transport are described below. investments. It is consistent with the PSC and also elaborates on Public Spending Code the PSC in respect of the appraisal of transport projects and 1.3.3 The Public Spending Code programmes to assist scheme (PSC) is designed to ensure promoters in constructing robust that the State gets the best and comparable business cases possible value for the resources at its disposal. The requirements for submission to Government. in the Code are based on employing good practices at all stages of the expenditure life cycle: In summary, the PSC: 1.3.6 The parameter values contained within CAF, which are required in the preparation of economic Was produced by Department of Public Expenditure and analysis and Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), have been included for Reform (DPER) in 2013; in the appraisal of MetroLink within this report. Aims to ensure projects are appraised sufficiently and provide value for money; Provides a comprehensive set of expenditure appraisal, value for money, requirements and related guidance for both current and capital expenditure; and Provides thresholds for the detail required in appraising schemes and projects. MetroLink Scheme MetroLink Scheme – Cost Benefit Analysis TP-041 Final Report 22/03/2018 Page 6/28 1.4 Overview of MetroLink existing heavy rail line at Whitworth Road in Glasnevin where seamless connectivity with the Maynooth and Phoenix Park 1.4.1 The MetroLink scheme comprises a new metro service running Tunnel (PPT) lines can be provided. from Swords via the airport to the city centre (New Metro North (NMN) and an upgrade to the existing Luas Green Line to metro 1.4.5 The full list of MetroLink stations is shown in Figure 1 below with standard. This, therefore, facilitates a metro line running from further details provided in Table 2. There are 265 MetroLink Swords to Sandyford via the airport and city centre. It is assumed stations in total: that the metro will connect with the Luas Green line at a tie-in point at Charlemont Luas stop. 15 from the proposed NMN route alignment; and 11 existing Luas Green line stations, which will be upgraded 1.4.2 The NMN Route Options Assessment has recently been to accommodate metro trains. completed by Arup and a draft Emerging Preferred Route (EPR) for the scheme has been identified. The NMN EPR will cover a 1.4.6 The table also provides a description of the type of station (i.e. distance of 18km from Estuary (just north of Swords) to underground, at grade etc.) and the possible interchange Charlemont on the south side of the city. NMN will have 15 opportunities with other public transport modes available at each stations and an estimated journey time of just over 27mins. station. Table 1 below provides a key for the symbols used by mode. 1.4.3 NMN will have underground stations in Dublin city centre at St. Stephen’s Green East, Tara Street, O’Connell Street, the Mater Hospital and Whitworth before continuing underground (with further stations) via Ballymun Road to the Airport. The EPR will continue mostly over-ground from the Airport through Swords via the R132. The draft EPR route alignment is shown in Figure 1 below. 1.4.4 MetroLink will connect with the existing heavy rail network at Tara Street to maximise public transport integration in the city centre and for wider connectivity with the regional public transport network. MetroLink will also interchange with the 5 Dardistown station will be a future station and will not be in place for the opening year of 2027 MetroLink Scheme MetroLink Scheme – Cost Benefit Analysis TP-041 Final Report 22/03/2018 Page 7/28 Table 1. Interchange Opportunity Key Figure 1. MetroLink Route Alignment MODE SYMBOL Bus Luas Heavy Rail Airport Park and Ride MetroLink Scheme MetroLink Scheme – Cost Benefit Analysis TP-041 Final Report 22/03/2018 Page 8/28 Table 2.