Page 1 Scottish Political Monitor - Wave 3 Holyrood Elections Polling 23 Feb 2021 Table 1 SP_VOTE1a/b/c. CONSTITUENCY - COMBINED VOTING INTENTION - ALL In elections for the Scottish Parliament you have two votes. Your first vote is for a member to represent the constituency. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?/Which party are you most inclined to support? Base : All UnW Total Gender Identity Age Social class Work status Work Sector Qualifications Total Work Work 65 55 -ing -ing Not Degree or or full part work Priv Pub- No Other or Male Female 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 more 16-34 35-54 more AB C1 C2 DE ABC1 C2DE time time -ing -ate lic quals quals higher Total Unweighted Total 1031 479 552 120 158 144 173 188 248 278 317 436 226 375 217 170 601 387 441 126 464 295 241 152 532 324 1031 Weighted Total 1031 490 541 118 180 148 188 164 234 297 336 398 219 303 182 286 521 468 459 112 460 415 137 153 539 318 1031 Total Voting (sub-base) 907 444 463 96 144 130 167 149 220 240 298 369 206 270 156 240 476 396 408 94 404 366 119 136 458 295 914 Scottish Conservative and Unionist 198 98 101 5 18 25 33 30 86 24 58 116 48 58 39 45 106 84 69 20 109 73 14 51 91 52 209 22% 22% 22% 6% 13% 19% 20% 20% 39% 10% 20% 31% 23% 22% 25% 19% 22% 21% 17% 21% 27% 20% 12% 37% 20% 18% 23% Scottish Labour 133 64 69 18 14 24 24 22 33 31 48 54 31 31 30 34 62 64 57 16 61 51 20 29 63 38 142 15% 15% 15% 19% 9% 19% 14% 15% 15% 13% 16% 15% 15% 12% 19% 14% 13% 16% 14% 17% 15% 14% 17% 21% 14% 13% 16% Scottish Liberal Democrats 54 24 29 2 9 9 11 9 14 11 19 23 23 19 4 7 41 10 26 10 18 28 7 - 27 25 53 6% 5% 6% 2% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 7% 6% 11% 7% 2% 3% 9% 3% 6% 11% 4% 8% 6% - 6% 8% 6% Scottish National Party (SNP) 473 231 242 63 98 60 92 79 81 161 153 160 94 152 75 140 246 215 233 43 197 193 71 52 248 165 465 52% 52% 52% 65% 68% 46% 55% 53% 37% 67% 51% 43% 45% 56% 48% 58% 52% 54% 57% 46% 49% 53% 59% 38% 54% 56% 51% Scottish Green Party 27 17 10 8 3 8 3 5 - 11 11 5 2 8 4 9 10 13 15 3 8 14 5 1 16 10 24 3% 4% 2% 8% 2% 6% 2% 3% - 5% 4% 1% 1% 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 4% 4% 2% 4% 4% * 4% 3% 3% Independent candidate 10 3 7 - 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 6 5 1 1 3 6 4 3 1 6 1 2 2 6 2 10 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% * 1% 2% 2% * 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% * 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% Action (formerly Alliance) for - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Independence (AFI) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UKIP - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Reform UK/The Brexit Party 1 - 1 - - - - 1 - - - 1 1 - - - 1 - - 1 - 1 - - 1 - 1 * - * - - - - 1% - - - * 1% - - - * - - 1% - * - - * - * Independence for Scotland (ISP) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Other 10 7 4 - 1 3 3 1 3 1 5 4 3 1 3 3 4 6 5 - 5 5 - 2 5 3 10 1% 1% 1% - * 2% 2% 1% 2% * 2% 1% 2% * 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% 1% Outside voting base - Undecided/Don't know 70 27 43 13 22 11 11 7 6 35 22 13 10 23 12 22 33 34 31 13 26 28 14 6 48 14 70 7% 6% 8% 11% 12% 7% 6% 4% 3% 12% 6% 3% 5% 7% 7% 8% 6% 7% 7% 12% 6% 7% 11% 4% 9% 4% 7% - Refused 9 - 9 * 1 1 2 3 1 1 4 5 1 2 1 4 4 5 3 - 6 1 2 2 4 4 11 1% - 2% * * 1% 1% 2% 1% * 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% * 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - Would not vote 45 19 26 8 13 5 8 5 6 21 13 11 1 8 13 20 9 33 18 4 23 19 1 9 29 5 36 4% 4% 5% 7% 7% 4% 4% 3% 2% 7% 4% 3% * 3% 7% 7% 2% 7% 4% 4% 5% 5% 1% 6% 5% 2% 3% Respondent type : General Public - age 16+ living in Scotland Fieldwork Dates : 15th to 21st February 2021 Source : Ipsos MORI Scotland (JN: 20-089701) Holyrood_PolitM_clientWAVE2_tabs_Final1. Page 2 Scottish Political Monitor - Wave 3 Holyrood Elections Polling 23 Feb 2021 Table 2 SP_VOTE1a/b/c. CONSTITUENCY - COMBINED VOTING INTENTION - ALL In elections for the Scottish Parliament you have two votes. Your first vote is for a member to represent the constituency. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?/Which party are you most inclined to support? Base : All Total Scottish Parliament Region Tenure Country of birth UnW Total High- Mid lands Scot North and -land East South West Cent Glas Is- and Scot Scot Scot -ral -gow lands Lothian Fife -land -land -land Owner occupier Renter Scotland Elsewhere Total Unweighted Total 1031 135 138 81 143 114 138 136 146 703 236 857 169 1031 Weighted Total 1031 124 136 85 150 127 141 132 135 659 306 813 213 1031 Total Voting (sub-base) 907 108 123 73 129 117 122 108 127 591 257 716 186 914 Scottish Conservative and Unionist 198 18 16 18 18 27 34 32 36 160 30 157 41 209 22% 16% 13% 25% 14% 23% 28% 30% 28% 27% 12% 22% 22% 23% Scottish Labour 133 14 27 7 18 18 9 17 25 90 33 100 32 142 15% 13% 22% 9% 14% 15% 7% 16% 19% 15% 13% 14% 17% 16% Scottish Liberal Democrats 54 6 - 15 13 7 4 3 5 44 8 37 17 53 6% 5% - 21% 10% 6% 3% 3% 4% 7% 3% 5% 9% 6% Scottish National Party (SNP) 473 64 78 28 77 56 69 48 53 271 167 388 82 465 52% 59% 64% 38% 59% 48% 56% 45% 42% 46% 65% 54% 44% 51% Scottish Green Party 27 2 * 2 3 9 3 4 5 11 14 15 12 24 3% 2% * 2% 2% 8% 2% 3% 4% 2% 6% 2% 6% 3% Independent candidate 10 1 - 2 - - 2 3 2 8 2 8 2 10 1% 1% - 3% - - 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Action (formerly Alliance) for - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Independence (AFI) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UKIP - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Reform UK/The Brexit Party 1 - - 1 - - - - - 1 - 1 - 1 * - - 2% - - - - - * - * - * Independence for Scotland (ISP) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Other 10 3 2 - 1 - 3 - 2 5 3 10 - 10 1% 3% 1% - 1% - 2% - 2% 1% 1% 1% - 1% Outside voting base - Undecided/Don't know 70 8 7 7 16 5 8 12 7 43 23 52 18 70 7% 7% 5% 8% 10% 4% 6% 9% 5% 7% 7% 6% 9% 7% - Refused 9 1 2 - 2 * * 3 * 5 4 9 - 11 1% 1% 2% - 1% * * 2% * 1% 1% 1% - 1% - Would not vote 45 7 4 5 4 5 11 9 * 20 23 36 8 36 4% 5% 3% 6% 2% 4% 8% 7% * 3% 7% 4% 4% 3% Respondent type : General Public - age 16+ living in Scotland Fieldwork Dates : 15th to 21st February 2021 Source : Ipsos MORI Scotland (JN: 20-089701) Holyrood_PolitM_clientWAVE2_tabs_Final1. Page 3 Scottish Political Monitor - Wave 3 Holyrood Elections Polling 23 Feb 2021 Table 3 SP_VOTE1a/b/c. CONSTITUENCY - COMBINED VOTING INTENTION - ALL In elections for the Scottish Parliament you have two votes. Your first vote is for a member to represent the constituency. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?/Which party are you most inclined to support? Base : All Voting intention (SP) Voting intention (SP) Voting intention Past vote (SP 2016) Past vote (EU Referendum, UnW Total Constituency List (Indyref2) Constituency Past vote (2019 General Election) Past vote (Indyref 2014) 2016) Total Not vote/ too Not young vote/ /not too Con Lab LD SNP Con Lab LD SNP Yes No Con Lab LD SNP Con Lab LD SNP Yes No Scot' Remain Leave young Total Unweighted Total 1031 209 142 53 465 206 140 64 417 462 472 173 127 52 405 235 147 49 310 395 480 132 624 248 134 1031 Weighted Total 1031 198 133 54 473 193 130 64 435 483 444 162 120 51 409 227 131 48 308 407 458 140 611 249 142 1031 Total Voting (sub-base) 907 198 133 54 473 191 123 63 428 457 382 158 110 49 399 218 122 43 299 375 414 100 561 224 99 914 Scottish Conservative and Unionist 198 198 - - - 167 7 9 3 3 192 133 5 8 10 173 1 3 2 14 162 18 81 107 8 209 22% 100% - - - 87% 6% 15% 1% 1% 50% 84% 5% 16% 3% 80% 1% 8% 1% 4% 39% 18% 14% 48% 8% 23% Scottish Labour 133 - 133 - - 10 98 6 13 27 87 8 79 1 10 17 74 4 10 14 95 19 86 23 21 142 15% - 100% - - 5% 79% 9% 3% 6% 23% 5% 72% 2% 2% 8% 61% 9% 3% 4% 23% 19% 15% 10% 21% 16% Scottish Liberal Democrats 54 - - 54 - 3 6 39 6 9 40 5 1 29 4 7 3 29 * 4 44 5 43 8 3 53 6% - - 100% - 1% 5% 61% 1% 2% 10% 3% 1% 59% 1% 3% 3% 67% * 1% 11% 5% 8% 4% 3% 6% Scottish National Party (SNP) 473 - - - 473 7 11 3 401 403 38 8 20 4 363 14 36 6 277 329 90 47 334 65 60 465 52% - - - 100% 4% 9% 5% 94% 88% 10% 5% 18% 8% 91% 6% 29% 14% 92% 88% 22% 48% 60% 29% 60% 51% Scottish Green Party 27 - - - - - 1 3 5 11 7 1 4 4 8 1 4 1 10 8 10 9 12 8 7 24 3% - - - - - 1% 5% 1% 2% 2% * 3% 9% 2% * 3% 1% 3% 2% 2% 9% 2% 4% 7% 3% Independent candidate 10 - - - - 1 1 1 - 3 6 - 1 1 2 1 2 1 - 2 6 1 2 6 1 10 1% - - - - 1% * 2% - 1% 2% - 1% 1% * 1% 1% 2% - 1% 2% 1% * 3% 1% 1% Action (formerly Alliance) for - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Independence (AFI) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UKIP - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Reform UK/The Brexit Party 1 - - - - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - 1 - - - 1 - - - - - 1 * - - - - - - 2% - - * - - 3% - 1% - - - * - - - - - * Independence for Scotland (ISP) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Other 10 - - - - 3 1 - - 1 10 3 - 1 3 3 2 - - 4 7 - 4 6 - 10 1% - - - - 2% 1% - - * 3% 2% - 2% 1% 1% 2% - - 1% 2% - 1% 3% - 1% Outside voting base - Undecided/Don't know 70 - - - - 2 5 1 7 14 39 2 6 2 6 5 9 2 7 16 32 19 34 13 20 70 7% - - - - 1% 4% 1% 2% 3% 9% 1% 5% 3% 2% 2% 7% 4% 2% 4% 7% 13% 6% 5% 14% 7% - Refused 9 - - - - - - - - 1 3 - - - - - - - - 1 2 * 5 1 * 11 1% - - - - - - - - * 1% - - - - - - - - * 1% * 1% * * 1% - Would not vote 45 - - - - - 2 - - 11 20 2 4 - 4 4 * 3 2 15 9 21 10 11 23 36 4% - - - - - 2% - - 2% 4% 1% 3% - 1% 2% * 5% 1% 4% 2% 15% 2% 5% 16% 3% Respondent type : General Public - age 16+ living in Scotland Fieldwork Dates : 15th to 21st February 2021 Source : Ipsos MORI Scotland (JN: 20-089701) Holyrood_PolitM_clientWAVE2_tabs_Final1.